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There is a sense of cognitive dissonance in the states of former East Germany, known as the GDR or German Democratic Republic in the Soviet Union period from 1950's to 1990. The 5 states that formed the GDR continued to build close ties with Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in the perception that this would build good long term relations. The crisis in Ukraine with border states of the Soviet Union opting in favor of close ties with the European Union and not Russia have disrupted the economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Russia. As long as Russia needed the economic ties to build its economy and standard of living the political issues posed by NATO expansion and EU expansion were set aside by Putin and political parties within Russia. The very ties that were supposed to usher in an era of peace in Europe helped strengthen the Russian and Chinese economies. Leading to a point where these two economies were strong enough by 2021 in the midst of the waning pandemic to  assert themselves on political issues where serious differences existed such as expansion of NATO and Taiwan. When the economic relations such as making China a manufacturing powerhouse  was the path taken by American and European business in 1990's, business interests were focused on the declining quality and high wages demanded by unions and workers in the US and Germany. This could be personally witnessed at Apple's factory in Colorado Springs where quality was failing badly in the 1990's. Apple when Steve Jobs returned in 1997 adopted a China manufacturing strategy when its manufacturing operations in the US failed to deliver the quality and cost structure needed for it to expand. The high margins with low costs of manufacturing in China was the strategy adopted by Steve Jobs to compete with Microsoft and turbocharge its expansion. Soon other companies followed. A similar process happened in economic ties with Russia on a smaller scale. Two decades of such expansion whittled down American manufacturing, hurt American workers, hurt European manufacturing and European workers.  This process could not continue- yellow vest protests in France, the protest vote in US midwestern states in recent elections, the protest votes in German elections and fragmentation of parties, made this clear. The US imposed trade tariffs on Chinese products and moved to restrict flow of technologies to China under the Trump administration, accelerated by the Biden administration. President Xi was once of the view that China's ties with the US were important "thousand fold" in the period as late as 2010. Yet this lopsided trade relationship was not beneficial to American workers or American interests as a technologically advanced leader. It is true that American workers and engineers at Apple had failed to ensure American quality competitiveness in the 1980's into 1990's, yet no advanced country or its business can come up with a false narrative that cedes its manufacturing leadership and jobs for the working class of its country. That false narrative is being challenged today by Mr. Biden, Mr. Scholz, and all American and German political parties, and by Mr. Modi with Atman Nirbhar Bharat for local manufacturing. The integration one sees of the port of Hamburg as Chinese export hub with China's economy is one aspect of what has happened. A new leadership is taking its place in Europe and in America that sees clearly the false narrative. The visit of the new Danish prime minister to India is the beginning of the effort to set up a new logistics relationship with South and South East Asia, as Denmark's Maersk is a world leader in shipping logistics for exports and manufacturing. The planned Noida logistics center outside of New Delhi under Gati Shakti integrated development is part of the change happening today as a new supply chain is being built. The unwinding of the one sided trade relationship with China, and its related relationship on energy with Russia, led to the changing perception in Russia and China of the value of the relationship. Political relations superseded economic and cultural relations during Putin's second phase and Xi's second phase with assertive attitudes on NATO, and on Hong Kong, Taiwan under Xi and Putin 2.0. As could be expected Germany and the US were caught flat footed as leaders who were cast in the mold of Putin as a Soviet representative in Dresden, and Xi with his father leading the Communist struggle in the 1930's and 1940's against Chiangkaishek, acted in ways that reflected the Soviet period. Chiang left for Taiwan in 1948 when Mao-tse-tung setup the People's Republic of China. Taiwan and Hong Kong remained important in the perceptions of Xi 2.0, in the effort to build "China Dream" and erase last vestiges of what in Soviet times were seen as western colonialism. US and EU particularly Business and the new IT telecom Business failed to grasp these matters, and historical events such as the opium wars of the 1850's. Business and cultural interests lacked both the inclination to learn and the knowledge of these events in Chinese history and its relations with colonial powers Britain and Japan, and also Russia. In 1900 the Boxer rebellion against ceding Chinese ports to colonial powers Britain, Japan, Russia, ended with permanent colonial settlements in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tsingtao, other Chinese ports. Chinese rejuvenation in the mind of leaders such as Xi from the second generation of Communist leadership, means putting this behind, leading to the action taken in Hong Kong. In some ways as some observers have commented it is as much a problem of the sluggishness of American and European thinking, particularly business interests including in Taiwan, post British Hong Kong, and ignorance of recent Chinese history which was mistakenly thought not to exist or forgotten. This is as much of a problem as the action taken by Putin and moves by Xi Jinping. The great democracies such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, were ignored as American and European business interests integrated the American and German economies with China's. In terms of population the population of these regions and related parts of South East Asia such as Malaysia and Vietnam which have a shared cultural history is about 1.5 times the population of China. Travelling through the parts of India's largest state Uttar Pradesh, an Madhya Pradesh one finds how much American and European business interests have failed both their own interests, their own workers and failed the great democracies of the world, by not only not investing in the democracies of Asia, and also of Africa and Latin America and bought into a narrative of China which no longer holds true and may never have been true all along. This is starkly evident in a once in a century pandemic in these great democracies of the world. These democracies have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic and their leaders facing false narratives in the media such as the BBC and American media outlets even on issues such as vaccination of the largest part of the world's people.           ...

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Mr Biden's bold vision for the US in infrastructure, in health and education, in competing in the world is outlined in this video in the NYT of his address to the joint session of the US Congress in April 2021. Biden is determined to move quickly and this comes across in the first 100 days. He says he "has never been more optimistic and confident about America."

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In this address to Congress in April 2021 US president Biden offers his plan to invest in American families and people. He calls it "a blue collar blueprint to build America." It also comes from a blue collar family to which Biden belongs with generations of American workers in the Biden family in the last hundred years who built America in the past.

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The $1.8 trillion Biden Families Plan for workers, students and families takes on the unfinished work for the New Deal, says Binyamin Applebaum in the NYT. Women were not out in the workforce in the way they are today under Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the 1930's and US president Biden is making them and childcare a big part of his Families Plan. Women have been hit harder than men during the pandemic shouldering a greater burden of the home and childcare. Healthcare and education are essential for quality of living- never has there been a greater realization of this than today after years of underinvestment in infrastructure and the foundations of democratic society.

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Brazilians writing about Brazil in the Brazil Report. Brazil Report says Brazil has carefully avoided Chinese debt where it involves taking on debt that has risks for repayment. Brazil has not joined the BRI Belt and Road Initiative and it staking out its own debt free path to development like India. Xinhua in a recent article calls the "debt trap" a rhetorical trap set by the US and EU, arguing with World Bank figures that debt of Ecuador, Brazil, and Argentina is 6.8%, 0.6% and 1.2% of GDP for these countries.  Here are the projects China has financed in Latin America using its technologies and manufacturing, $15 billion of greenfield investment in 2019, $12 billion in 2020-2022. Monterrey Metro and tram, Bogota Metro, Panama Canal fourth bridge Chancay megaport Peru Brazil- BYD EV plant, Santos port terminal, Curitiba 5G City, Cauchari solar plant Las Mambas copper mine, Lithium mines Argentina     ...

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WSJ tells the story about Biden being slow to act in 2021 and 2022 to close the Southern Border, without telling the complete story and all the facts. Biden did close the Border in 2024 by executive order- when Trump blocked passage of Republican Lankford's legislation in Feb 2024 supported by Biden to close the southern Border. No mention is made that Biden was faced with a once in a century pandemic, winning the fight for vaccines over skepticism, and on Feb. 22 2022 Putin launching an attack on Kiev, Ukraine, and negotiating to get the crumbling infrastructure of the US rebuilt, funds for CHIPS and Science. On top of this the Venezuelan economy completely collapsed leading to an unanticipated migrant surge. Only FDR and Lincoln faced so many huge challenges and tackled them one by one. Without these facts the result can be to stall the biggest boom in manufacturing under president Biden/Harris that America has experienced since the space race in the 1960's. ...

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Franklin Roosevelt made this commencement address at Oglethorpe University in Atlanta, Georgia calling on the young "not just to make their way in the world but to remake  the world you will find before you." This is the task of the new generation that Harris is calling on as she makes again a call for " bold, persistent experimentation," in the spirit of science that has powered western civilization since Brahe looked at the stars and Newton at the world around him. FDR visited Georgia and had a 1750 acre farm there at the top of Pine Mountain, called The Little White House. "The country needs and, unless I mistake its temper, the country demands bold, persistent experimentation. It is common sense to take a method and try it: If it fails, admit it frankly and try another. But above all, try something." "We need enthusiasm, imagination and the ability to face facts, even unpleasant ones, bravely."   ...

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America takes the first step to improve relations with Belarus as part of improving relations with Russia. For the British, French and some northern European interests arguing for continuing policy of war in Ukraine, one can only see a long history of opposing Russia from the beginnings of the British and French Empires after defeating the Spanish and the Dutch by 1700 and for the last 325 years. American interests have diverged from the British in the policy of freedom for Asian and African people under FDR that led to decolonization after the war.  America has the greater responsibility to reduce the buildup of nuclear weapons, to ensure that fertilizer and food supplies flow to all countries, build peaceful relations with 3 billion people in China and India, and to reduce international tensions. DJT shows a concern for all loss of life in Ukraine, particularly for the young of all sides who are losing their lives in a senseless war that needs to be respected. ...

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Keith Bradsher visits Guangzhou, China, just as prime minister Wen Jiabao tells the National People's Congress that China is changing its priorities from high growth to sustainable development. As recently as 2007 GDP growth reached 14%! The minimum wage is expected to rise 13% each year under the five year plan. Even with the increase in wages owning an apartment is unaffordable in Guangzhou- a 1000 square feet apartment costs upward of $300,000, showing the extent to which the bubble in real estate prices affects young people who cannot afford to own an apartment. A new graduate with marketable skills such as computer engineering makes about $6000 a year, putting owning an apartmet beyond reach. Another change he notices today is that during visits to construction sites he does not see flood lit sites at night. This used to be the case because builders were scrambling to build. With government policies discouraging the property bubble there is no longer a need for work at night. The focus now has shifted to build low income housing....

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Olivier Blanchard, chief economist of the IMF says that as government borrowing around the world surges, interest rates will go up. Governments borrow by selling bonds to investors, and to attract investors the government competes with stock and corporate bond markets for investor's money, leading to rising yields for investors. As the confidence has returned to corporate bond markets this is already happening. From the end of 2008. the yield on the benchmark 10 year Treasury note has increased by one and ahalf percentage points, rising to 3.54% from 2%, the sharpest upward movement in 15 years. In Germany the yield on German 10 year bonds has also risen, rising to 3.57% from 2.93%. Similiarly British bond yields have risen to 3.78% from 3.41%. Congressional Budget Office estimates are that net government debt for the USA will rise to 65% of GDP at the end of fiscal 2010, from 41% at the end of fiscal 2008. In 2009 and 2010 the US government will sell $5 trillion in new debt, according to Citigroup. A decade from now the government's outstanding debt could equal 82% of GDP, or about $17 trillion. Every one point rise in interest rates costs the Treasury $50 billion annually over a few years, and Kenneth Rogoff estimates that this could reach $170 billion annually if the average yield on 10 year Treasury note goes up to 4.7%, as the Congressional Budget Office estimates. This will dampen the effects of stimulus spending. It is a big issue says Rogoff. A year ago under old policy and assumptions before the financial crisis the Congressional Budget Office projected outstanding debt at $5.3 trillion in 10 years. Now the estimate is $17 trillion, which is triple the old number and an increase of $11 trillion. A recovering economy would make these numbers less relevant. But with struggling industries like autos and banks needing more help from the government, and with consumers having to reduce a mountain of debt, a weak economy for a long time and small growth for a decade would make this a story that won't go away. Rogoff says its like what happened to the subprime borrowers, people assuming that the funding is always going to be there. In 2009 and 2010 Citigroup says, the Euro zone countries will sell nearly 1.6 trillion euros or $2.6 trillion in new debt, and Britain will offer 490 billion pounds or $799 billion in new debt. Over the next decade this would slow Europe's recovery and prolong the downturn. Britain faces a bigger problem in the near term as Britain's governmetn debt equals 55% of GDP, and Standard and Poors estimates it could approach 100% by 2013. South America and Eastern Europe will also face the situation of rising rates. Asian countries like China with lower levels of debt are in a better situation, IMF's Blanchard says....

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Berlin's most famous hospital. Half of Germany's Nobel prize winners for medicine and physiology worked at Berlin Charite Hospital. It was setup in 1710, by 1810 it was a medical university, and today a leading world medical centre. Mr. Navalny is being treated here. It is also a centre in the fight against the pandemic.

Here DW.com gives pictures of the hospital over the 300 years of history. It was part of the controversial period in Germany in the thirties and was part of the GDR after 1945. It was part of the fight against the Ebola virus in 2005 and now leads the fight in Germany against the coronavirus, showing how Germans can play a international role that brings dignity to the German people.

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Prospects for the global economy in 2016- debt to GDP ratios high in Turkey, Brazil and China lead to problems and slowing growth. India an exception in emerging markets with growth rate above 7%, benefitting from increasing foreign investment and halving of oil prices. U.S. recovers slowly, and the eurozone emerges from the debt crisis with need for further quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. Russia recovers gradually after a steep devaluation of the ruble. Ironically just when a slow recovery is taking place in 2015-2016, the private sector governance improvements, and serious tackling of debt problems, lead one to conclude that prospects for the long term are better today than in 2005 when the optimism was not well grounded because of weak governance and debt buildup.

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The Gallois Report commissioned by the new government in France to restore France's manufacturing competitiveness. Louis Gallois is the former head of aerospace firm EADS. It calls for a 30 billion euro cut in payroll taxes to help French companies compete in global markets. Gallois proposes 22 main measures to "stop the slide and support the economy." He called this a "competitiveness shock." Gallois points to France's 70 billion euro trade deficit in contrast to booming German exports. The cost to the economy was 2 million French jobs over 3 decades, says the report. Unemployment today is around 10%. Measures suggested include the payroll tax cuts of 1.5% of GDP for salaries upto 4900 euros a month, and employee representatives to sit on board of directors of French companies similiar to Germany.

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Greece's economy is expected to shrink by 6% in 2012 by many private sector economists in Greece. This means Greece will have a deficit closer to 10% of GDP. Antonio Samaras, leader of the New Democracy Party, is expected to win the elections in Greece to be held by spring 2012. Opinion polls show his party getting 24% of the vote, and Papandreou's Socialists getting 15%, showing how little support any party can gather in Greece. Samaras told the Journal in an interview- the contagion is spreading rapidly, and what he fears is political and social contagion from high unemployment and austerity measures. Samaras says his government would continue with the spending cuts, but also reduce the tax burden on Greek households and businesses, which he views as having worsened the recession in Greece.

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The Italian government is making changes that would increase competition, provide funds for infrastructure and reduce red tape. Mario Monti, the Ialian prime minister, told a news conference: "Italy's economy has for decades been hindered in its economic and social growth by three big problems: insufficent competition, inadequate infrastructure and too much red tape." There are fears that the $40 billion in tax increases and spending cuts set in December 2011 to cut the deficit would lead to a sharp contraction in the economy. The IMF predicts a 2.2% decline in GDP for 2012, the Bank of Italy's estimate is 1.5%. Changes planned would permit gas stations to choose providers, improve the legal system, add 5,000 pharmacy licenses, and add 500 notaries. Industry minister Passera says the cabinet approved 5.5 billion euros for infrastructure projects.

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The Labor Department statistics show unemployment dropped from 8.9% to 8.2%, however at the same time GDP growth for the 1st quarter only reached an estimated 2.1%, only slightly higher than the economy's potential of 2%, the figure for growth used by Fed chairman Bernanke. This has puzzled Bernanke because there was just not enough growth to account for the drop in the unemployment rate. A lower jobs number of 120,000 for jobs created in March 2012 gives the Fed chairman only a short time to respond with another version of the Operation Twist, before election season begins in earnest with the Fed wanting to stay neutral, says Lahart. Other reports suggest that the U.S. Federal Reserve having come under criticism for being too interventionist may decide to wait longer.

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Problems facing S. Africa include the high unemployment rate of 24% and the funding of social grant programs for the unemployed. As it stands today with the increase in population and the economy unable to create enough jobs, there are more people on the social grant program (similiar to welfare, disability and social security payments in the U.S.), than there are people working. Only 10% of S. Africans pay taxes which starts at 120,000 rand, or about $15,230. The numbers of people on social grant payments are growing at five times the rate of people added for income tax payments. And there is concern about the tax base's ability to sustain this in the future as population grows. The awards are now at 3% of GDP or $13.4 billion.

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Barley points out that Russia has two strengths as it tackles S&P's downgrade of its credit rating. The downgrade was a result of large capital outflows. He cites Moody's for the low level of government debt of about 13.5% of GDP in 2013, or about $265 billion. Interest payments on debt are about 1.7% of government revenues in 2014. And Russia has $442 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of April 1, to support its efforts and stabilize the economy. The weakness is that Russia depends on oil and gas exports for half of government revenues and 67% of exports, according to Moody's. Higher interest costs on Russia's bonds are one cost of the crisis, bonds due in 2023 have a yield of 5.6%, according to TradeWeb. This yield could go up higher.

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Moody's Investors Service lowered the UK's credit rating from triple A to Aa1 and changed the outlook to stable. The managing director of Moody's sovereign ratings, Bart Oosterveld, says Britain' debt will continue to grow in 2013-2015 and only stabilize after 2016, in Moody's central scenario. Analysts say this is unlikely to increase Britain's borrowing costs. Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Osborne, says the debt problems built up over many years, and declining growth in the eurozone hurts Britain's exports. Moody's says Britain's debt will peak at about 96% of GDP in 2016 after continued sluggish growth in coming years. This move follows a downgrade of France by Moody's from triple A rating in November 2012, and downgrade of the U.S. from triple A rating by S&P in August 2011.

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Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the IMF, says Britain may have to turn to the IMF for assistance if those holding British assets lose confidence in the government's ability to pay its debts, and start abandoning the pound. This happened in 1976. In Johnson's view the bottom line is that there is abudget problem and a banking problem, and adjustments will need to be made - and these adjustments are easier to make with an IMF loan than without one. Britain's budget deficit is 11%of its GDP compared with 13% forecast for the USA for 2009. And government debt which is 40% now is expected to go up to 80% of the overall economy in coming years, even 100%. The ratio approaches 80% in troubled economies like Italy and Greece.

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The IMF in its 2012-2013 Global Economic Outlook Report presented at its annual meeting in October 2012 estimates global economic growth of 3.3% in 2012 and 3.6% in 2013. This is a drop of 0.2% for 2012 and 0.3% for 2013 from its earlier forecast in July 2012. Under the IMF definition the global economy GDP does not have to decline for a recession. Advanced economies growth estimate is 1.3% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. Emerging market economies growth estimate is of 5.3% in 2012 and improving to 5.6% in 2013. Specifically for the eurozone growth estimate is decline of 0.4% in 2012 and 0.2% growth in 2013. U.S. growth is estimated at 2.2% for 2012. China's growth rate is estimated at 7.8% in 2012 with a growth uptick to 8.2% in 2013 as a much smaller stimulus than the one in 2009 kicks in. This will help commodity exporters like Brazil, Australia, and Canada. Two surprises are Brazil's growth with a significant improvement to 4% in 2013 from 1.5% in 2012 because of sharp interest rate cuts and improving demand from China. The other is India which is expected to show a significant slowdown with a growth estimate of 4.9% as the government faces what the Kelkar committee report calls "a perfect storm" of a large current account deficit and a budget deficit, and failure to attract foreign investment. Growth in Japan is expected to slow to 1.2% in 2013 from 2.2% in 2012 as the government imposes a sales tax increase to reduce its deficit. ...