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Russian offers for settlement of Ukraine conflict in 2025 described as capitulation in the UK's Guardian- all of the eastern Donbass region and Crimea ceded to Russia, limits on its army and its long range weapons, leaving it too weak to defend itself. The UK, France oppose it. The new German government of CDU's Merz is increasing Germany's defense capabilities to shoulder the burden of defence in the EU in 2025-2026. Under this situation and with presure within the Republican party on DJT, it is unlikely that such a capitulation or agreement is likely to have a chance  for agreement. It is a restatement of Russian proposals in 2022.

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Faltering peace talks in Moscow December 2, 2025, after EU modifications of US/Russian draft developed by Witkoff with Putin adviser Dimitriev. Putin says European nations have modifed the plan and this is unacceptable to Russia. Putin says-

“All these changes are meant to do one thing. To block this entire peace process.” He said European nations were trying to hand Russia a strategic defeat. 

Because the proposals were drafted without Ukrainian involvement and involved conceding parts of eastern Ukraine there were serious doubts about the earlier plan from the EU and France, Germany, Britain.

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Germany reaches daily coronavirus cases of 20,000 on November 4, with total 600,000 cases for a population of 83 million people. France reached 40,000 daily cases. Both countries are in a national lockdown for the second wave of coronavirus which is different from the first in that some parts of the economy remain open.

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India is joining Australia, New Zealand, Japan, South Korea, Britain, France, Russia, and many other countries in calling for an investigation by the World Health Organization into how the coronavirus crisis escalated into a pandemic with millions of cases and hundreds of thousands of deaths and how adequate the response of the WHO has been. 

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The modernization of the Indian Air Force proceeds with the phase out in 2 years of all MiG 21's to be replaced with Rafale jets from France and new Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft AMCA which will be made in India with advanced technologies for the Air Force and the Indian Navy.

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Lacking a vaccine mandate or serious protocols for coronavirus such as mandatory mask use and social distancing, schools reopen in Britain without the safety action taken in other European countries. Italy has clear vaccine mandate for teachers, France and Germany have mandated use of masks and social distancing action, Britain none of the above.

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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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The EU statistics agency Eurostat reported that the eurozone countries GDP declined by 0.3% in the 4th quarter compared to the third quarter of 2011. The decline for Germany was 0.2%. For Italy the decline was 0.7% over the prior quarter according to Istat, the Italian statistics agency. Spain 0.3% decline over the prior quarter. France experienced 0.2% growth over the prior quarter with larger exports by Airbus and more business investment. Italy plans cuts to military spending reducing aircraft purchases, buying 90 instead of 131 Lockheed F-35 fighter jets. Only France and Slovakia showed quarterly growth.

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Michael Barnier leads the negotiating team for the EU as it begins negotiations with Britain on Brexit. He is a former foreign minister of France and former EU commissioner, giving him the necessary skills and experience. Yet as he meets with the Affairs of the European Committee in the German parliament, even Barnier is not clear how the negotiations will be conducted. Only that the issues relating to disentangling the closely interwoven economies of the EU and Britain relate to nationals of the EU and Britain in each others region, the common 20,000 legally binding regulations, and the price tag for Britain to pay of 60 billion euros. The leading German in the negotiating team is Gunther Oettinger, a former EU budget commissioner, and he tells Der Spiegel that the bill may be even higher than that number. The figure will be arrived at by taking into account the obligations of Britain and applying this to assets. The obligations include the money owed to the EU budget, share of medium term budget planning to 2020, share of pension payments to EU civil servants. The British take a different view and do not understand why they have to pay this amount when they are exiting. The British want to see their future relationship on trade and access to the EU markets discussed early, but the EU position is just the opposite, first exit negotiations to be completed by September 2018, then other discussions on trade. March 29, 2019 is the date set for Britain to be no longer a member of the EU. Yet even the sequence of issues has not been set and the sides could not be further apart than they are now. Each side looking at its situation domestically with elections in the EU in 2017, and May facing the added challenge of Scotland threatening to leave the UK. ...

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France's Macron argues that relations of the European Union with Russia that deteriorated with the Ukraine conflict should now be restored. He calls for closer relations with Russia, as Germany under Merkel continues with existing policy and a robust NATO. Merkel sees peace in the Balkans preserved by allowing Balkan countries into the European Union. Macron thinks this is not a good idea and has called NATO brain dead. Merkel and Macron now disagree on goals of NATO.

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The head of the hospital group that represents 39 public hospitals in the Paris region APHP, Mr. Hirsch, says that by October 24 about 800 to 1000 coronavirus cases in intensive care ICU are expected taking up 70 to 90 percent of capacity in the Paris region.This has placed added urgency to the actions of the French government and tougher measures are expected following the Macron announcement of a curfew in Paris region and eight metropolitan regions in France.

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After France makes vaccination mandatory for health care workers Germany's Merkel says she has ruled out mandatory vaccination in Germany. Merkel visited the Robert Koch Institute on July 12 to urge everyone to get vaccinated. Following a slow start 43% of Germany's population is now fully vaccinated. Merkel says "I think we can gain trust by advertising vaccination and also by letting people become ambassadors for the vaccine from their own experience."

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Spain and Portugal growing at 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024, and Italy at 0.3%  are outpacing Germany and France at 0.2%. Manufacturing has slowed down in Germany and France. Overall US 1.6% growth in matched by the EU in 2024.

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France and Germany remained far apart on approach to banking regulation in Dec. 2012. Germany does not support regulatory powers of the ECB over Germany's small and midsized savings banks which lend to small businesses and consumers. France supports regulation of all 6000 banks in the eurozone by the ECB. Germany also raises concerns about how the regulatory powers of the ECB can affect its powers in setting interest rates. Germany does not support the British position for regulatory powers over London based banks to remain in Britain. Coming up with a new banking supervisor for European banks with regulatory powers of supervision is needed for Spain to get access to additional EU financing. This is also part of the new financial architecture for the eurozone, including deposit guarantees, which needs to be set up.

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Adam Nossiter of the NYT describes the coalition of right and left parties in France that have united against the National Front, called in France "the Republican Front." In the 2002 Marine Le Pen's father made it to the second round of the presidential election, but lost to centre right party leader Jacques Chirac who won 78% of the vote. Analysts say the Republican Front is coming up this time once more for daughter Marine Le Pen, as she goes into the second round of the election in 2017 fifteen years later with support in the north and northeast of the country and in the coastal south east around Marseille and Nice. Le Pen appeals to working class people with nationalist slogans. The Republican Party of former president Sarkozy represents the centre right, and it is combining with the centre left Socialist Party of president Hollande to call for the election of Emmanuel Macron and for support to Macron's En Marche movement. One expert predicts the National Front may leave the centrist views of Le Pen adviser Philippot, and return to hard right roots. Former president Sarkozy was mentioned on French television Fr24 as hoping to make a comeback by boosting the chances of the Republican Party in the June parliamentary elections, and creating a situation in which a future president works with a prime minister from the Republican Party. As the Macron En Marche movement is only one year old, it is not well prepared to contest the parliamentary elections, opening the door to the formation of new coalitions for government in France. ...

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US policy is to end war as soon as nuclear threat is over- DJT on Iran war on March 31 2026. When the US feels Iran 'won't be able to come up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave,' says DJT. US is self sufficient and exports oil to Europe. It doesn't need Iranian oil. DJT makes that clear to allies in Europe who have not taken a stand in the war and limited access to their airbases, saying as Starmer did yesterday that Britain did not want to expand the war. Really, the US does not want to expand the war. DJT's MAGA base does not want this war, and Biden's base does not want this war. US does not need Straits of Hormuz- it is Britain, Italy and EU countries, mainly China, Japan, South Korea that need the Straits of Hormuz. Speaking for the US DJT tells these countries in Europe to get the oil themselves in the Straits. He also tells China to get the oil from the Straits- if they need it and are so complacent as to get 90% of their imports from Hormuz after 40 years of disruptions and wars, as China does. DJT said- "If France or some other country wants to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the Hormuz Strait, they'll go right up there, and they'll be able to fend for themselves. What happens with the strait we're not going to have anything to do with, because these countries, China, China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful ships... and they'll take care of themselves. There's no reason for us to do it." "The USA won't be there to help you anymore, just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!" ...

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Pictures from the lockdown in Paris, France, which has been tightened to reduce new infections in the pandemic. Unlike other countries with lax controls in lockdowns people in Paris are required to carry a document showing authorization to go outside, the place where a person is going, and show it to police on the street. 

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The price of Brent crude oil drops 20% to $36.07 and global stock markets decline sharply. A price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia leads to the sharp drop in oil prices. The swing in oil prices and the increase in coronavirus cases in Italy, France, South Korea, and other countries leads to sharp decline in stock prices.

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US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

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FR24 gives this slideshow of pictures showing the trip by train of Scholz, Macron and Draghi, leaders of Germany, France and Italy to Kviv, Ukraine on June 15-16. The Romanian president also joined them at the meetings. This was a show of solidarity with Ukraine and the leaders also visited Irpin outside Kviv. Macron said there was heroism from the Ukrainian people and also traces of barbarism during the invasion as he looked at the damage around him from the bombings and artillery shells.

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Two way trade India EU to expand rapidly from $140 billion in 2025.  EU head Von der Leyen will visit India in early 2025 to increase economic cooperation and trade as the EU moves to reduce concentration of trade with China, and adapt to worsening trade relations with DJT administration in the US tariff policies. India is seen as a natural partner in 2025 with strong relationships with Nordic countries including Denmark and with strong economic ties to the US and France.

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This report in WSJ shows how European countries are maintaining salaries of employees who would otherwise be laid off. Governments have setup programs in France, Britain, Germany and other countries to provide employers with the money for 80-84% of salaries up to 2500 pounds ($3165) in Britain and 5330 euros a month in France. As a result 1 worker out of three in the private sector in France for subsidy applications for 6.9 million workers are already received. For the German program 2.4 million workers will get this benefit. About 1 million companies in Europe retain employees with this program of governments simply sending out the salaries with funds directly to households. This helps to keep out the stress for families, particularly families with children. It is as if the employees are not really laid off but asked to stay at home for manufacturing facilities and work from home in shorter hours where work can be done remotely.  Money is quickly deposited into the bank account of employees in these countries, though it is slower in Italy and Spain. It is as if the European approach is put the whole economy on pause for 2 months and restart it almost like before with only a small dent in employment once the coronavirus is pushed out with lockdowns and strict control actions. This will cap German unemployment at 5.9% compared with 5% last year, only a modest increase. The cost is not that much considering what it accomplishes. 10 billion euros is the cost in Germany where the state fund for this has 26 billion euros. 10 billion pounds in Britain. And 20 billion euros in France.  The U.S. adopts a similar approach also through its $349 billion program which provides loans to companies with less than 500 employees to meet payroll for 8 weeks and pay some overhead. Loans are forgiven based on job retention and employees on the payroll and only if the employees are retained. Another program is for companies larger than this. And a third program targets entire industries such as airlines, aerospace, and companies in other industries so that they do not have to layoff employees. U.S. unemployment insurance is modified to work along similar lines maintaining incomes of employees laid off because of the pandemic. Another program sends checks directly of $1200 to households with lower incomes to help them and to help people at poverty level or without jobs. The thrust of both the European and American efforts is the same, lose as few jobs as possible, keep people's incomes steady, and do this in a way that the economy can pick up quickly to the former level in as short a time as possible. Compared to Europe U.S. unemployment will be higher predicted at 9.8% with the expected rebound lowering the unemployment in 2021. ...