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Increasing loan financed car sales in China in 2014. Loan financed car sales are 17% in China for 2013, 35% in Japan, 50% in Brazil and in Germany, 45% in UK/France, 8% in Vietnam, and a high of 80% in the U.S., 70% in India.

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Typhoon winds that exacerbated the floods in Beijing, China, are shown here in a BBC report. Recent floods in China and fires in Maui, Hawaii, show effects of climate change on opposite sides of the planet in August 2023. This is one more reason for the US and China to work with other countries in limiting the effects of climate change and focus on the important issues that require cooperation and mutual effort.

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Peter Navarro points out the problem with textbook economics and concepts such as comparitive advantage. Many economists from elite universities ignored for a long time the distortions in world trade arising from state subsidies as they used textbook economics without looking at what was happening in practice. Even as the U.S. runs a trade deficit of $ 1 billion a day with China such text book economists ignored for too long the advantages of state directed industries and state directed investments in creating distortions in trade patterns, and not creating a level playing field for the U.S. Here Peter Navarro desceibes what he calls afaux comparitive advantage built on high nontariff and other barriers. Auto tariffs of China are 10 times that of the U.S. Other barriers are intrusive licensing requirements and foreign ownership restrictions. With subsidized land and capital, export subsidies, and tax preferences, unfair trade advantages can be gaine d in many industries leaving the U.S. in a disadvantaged position. Mr. Navarro is assistant to the U.S. president on trade and manufacturing policy, and director of the White House National Trade Council. ...

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Increasing trade tensions as Japan, the US, and other countries struggle to maintain their export competitiveness. The issues surrounding the stronger yen, and the reluctance of China to revalue its currency.

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Overseas travel from Russia is cut down significantly as US and European Union restrict Russian planes from flying over their airspace. Many Russian planes in Europe were grounded after the invasion of Ukraine. The UAE and Central Asia, Turkey are frequent destinations for Russian planes following the invasion and the response of the US and the EU. Dubai is the single most frequent destination say the NYT.

During the pandemic China reduced overseas travel significantly. Fewer Americans and Europeans are traveling to China with the lockdowns and zero covid policies. The result is that people living in China and Russia have significantly less contact in 2022 with the outside world compared to 2019 the year before the pandemic. The flow of information is also affected with the state controlling more of the information that people see in Russia and China.

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During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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US tariff on India of 25% penalty for buying Russian oil and 25% baseline going into effect 21 days later in DJT executive order of August 6, 2025. A 30% baseline on China but no penalty for buying Russian oil. The 21 days will give time for India to come up with an agreement with the US. 

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As its economy slows and facing high debt levels, China benefits by an estimated $18 billion a month from lower oil prices in 2015. The estimate is from Starfort Holdings, investment and private equity group. The estimates as China benefits from lower prices of all commodities, including oil, are of about $250 billion annually as China replenishes its stocks of commodities. With $12 million barrels imported daily China is a major emerging market beneficiary, along with India, of the drop in oil prices. Continuing pressure on prices from the expected resilience in shale oil production in the U.S. with learning and the development of new production methods means the benefits are likely to continue. China has also not renegotiated price points in deals made earlier at higher prices with China and Venezuela, as it pursues its foreign interests. Stockpiling of grains and edible oils are being increased by 33% in 2015 by $24.7 billion.

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China's economy is feeling the effects of a sharp slowdown of the economy with covid lockdowns in 2022 and the Ukraine crisis undermining confidence in China. Internal divisions on president Xi's policies of allying with Russia on Ukraine are shown in this report by the WSJ. China faces a collapse of its relationship with the US and Europe says the WSJ. With it China's economic growth faces a sharp slowdown.  From 18% at the beginning of 2021 economic growth has slowed down to 4% in fourth quarter of 2021. The current situation in Ukraine and Mr. Xi's response create risks of collateral damage for Chinese manufacturers with weakening global demand, says the WSJ. Deng Xiaoping's policy of opening China which happened for the last 40 years is being reversed with Mr. Xi's policies and the stance taken by the Biden administration is supported by the US Congress by both Republicans and Democrats.  This WSJ report points out that premier Li Keqiang has pointed to the risks China is facing in somber tones calling the external environment for China in 2022 "more complex and severe." At the same time Hu Wei a senior adviser to the State Council stirred up discussion online with an article about Mr. Xi's pro-Russian policy, saying "China can't be tied to Putin and the ties need to be cut off as soon as possible."  ...

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The S-400 antiaircraft missile defense system used by Russia is changing the way U.S. operates as an undisputed air power. It has not been tested in operations yet it has affected use of U.S. air power in difficult spots around the world. Russia says it is its way of contesting a U.S. led world order. Purchases of the system by China and India allow Russia to spread the cost of the system with a smaller budget for defense. 

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Samuelson says the bill in the U.S. Senate is symbolic because it allows companies to cite the undervalued renminbi as an illegal subsidy and have the Commerce Department impose duties on Chinese products. This would have to be done on a case by case basis, making it largely ineffective in dealing with the large trade deficit with China. He also cites the differences among economists that show a range between 1 million and 2.8 million jobs lost. The 2.8 million jobs estimate is from the Economic Policy Institute for the period 2001-2010. The 1 million is an estimate for 1990-2007, which estimates a loss of quarter of all manufacturing jobs. By WTO rules subsidies that are not targeted at specific industries or firms are allowed, according to lawyers. Which means China could appeal to the WTO, and impose retaliatory duties. In the meantime the trade deficit with China, with imports of $364 billion in 2010, and $86 billion in exports, would remain largely unaffected. This is the reason some Senators, including Republican Orrin Hatch (Utah), see this move as political posturing by President Obama and the Democrats, because the administration has no new proposals to address the trade deficit and the gradual erosion of America's manufacturing base. Samuelson cites Arvind Subramanium of the Peterson Institute, and his book "Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China's Economic Dominance." Subramanium says what is at stake is not a temporary imbalance in world trade a happened with Japan in the 1980's, but a gradual shift to a system of trade in which China has preferential access to raw materials (oil, grain, minerals), subsidizes exports in new industries as it moves upscale from shoes and textiles to automobiles, aircraft and alternative energy, and changes the very nature of the global trading system as it becomes the dominant trading nation in the world. By Subramanium's estimate China's share of global trade increased from 1.6% to 9.8% in the 2 decades from 1990 to 2010. In two more decades he estimates China could increase this to 15% of global trade, significantly larger than the U.S. In a response to Congressmen, businessmen and policymakers wary of starting a trade war, Samuelson says there already is a trade war as a "fixed" system of trade undermines America's manufacturing and industrial base. The only difference being that today only one side is fighting that war, and America is slow to grasp the implications or its policymakers are clueless how to respond....

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Nexperia chip exports from China that affects carmakers suppliers in Canada US Europe including Honda and Bosch 2025. Honda cut its production including in Canadian plants with Nexperia chips shortages. The agreement reached at the APEC summit between Xi and DJT calls for release of China's restrictions on chips exports by blacklisted Chinese entities including parent ot Nexperia. Nexperia is aSino Dutch maker of chips for automobiles that was taken over by the Dutch government in 2025. 

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The lessons from Italy, the epicenter now of the coronavirus pandemic, are clear- act early and decisively, impose quarantines and lockdown quickly to prevent intermingling. These steps need to be put early, with absolute clarity, and strictly enforced. This report in the NYT shows how decisive action early is the only way to prevent the crisis from becoming a large one that threatens the health system and millions. German states such as Bavaria and others now have a $25,000 euro and some have jail time. Singapore has jail time and fines for violating the stay home quarantine orders which it imposes after contact tracing. Taiwan has similar measures. Enforcement and strict control are part of the tools that have worked in these places and in China, South Korea.  Britain has still to close flights from Iran, Italy, which The Times reports on March 20 are still landing at Heathrow. This is after the U.S. weeks earlier banned flights from China, Iran, Italy, and last week from Europe after EU nations failed to take action early.  ...

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The Biden administration says that the video app must divest itself from its parent or face a nationwide US ban. China says it is opposed to such a divestment or forced sale. China has made the export of of algorithm based technology such as TikTok subject to export controls.

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Efforts by president Macron to setup a meeting between Rouhani of Iran and president Trump in New York to reduce tensions of miscalculation and disproportionate response after the attacks on Saudi oil facilities by drones and missiles. Macron says the "maximum pressure" sanctions placed by the U.S. are resulting in Iran placing "maximum pressure" on its neighbors. The Yemen civil war is fought by proxy.  One outcome appears to be the Houthi rebels backed by Iran in Yemen announcing a unilateral ceasefire. And the Saudis announcing a ceasefire of their own. This gives the European Union, the U.S., Saudis, Iran, China and Japan, time to consider the implications of the counterproductive approaches of the different sides to give enough room for new talks. Iran nuclear deal, U.S. relations with Iran, and any new talks on these issues are now seen in a different way. The nuclear deal is now linked with other issues in the region, including building peace in the region. Countries that depend on oil flowing through the Straits of Hormuz such as Japan, China, South Korea, and India are now also involved as silent partners pushing for peace in the region.  ...

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The new US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, 44 years was the chief of staff to Robert Lighthizer the USTR in the DJT first term. He is a former Air Force lawyer who became a trade lawyer and protege of Lighthizer.

In testimony before Congress Greer has said that he "does not subscribe to the myth that more trade with China reduces the likelihood of conflict."

"From a defense perspective, it is critically important to restore the U.S. manufacturing base to ensure that the U.S. can credibly deter escalation by China and, if necessary, defend its national security interests at home and abroad."

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Trading relationships and supply chain relationships of China with Japan, and other ASEAN nations built up since China joined the international trading system and became a major exporter are interconnected with the political relationships unraveling over issues such as Taiwan and maritime disputes. It took three decades for China to build up exports and manufacturing for exports of $1 trillion to the US and EU in 2021. Freedom of navigation in international waters and oceans, respect for international law, is important to all trading nations particularly Japan and China, that depend on maritime trade for their economies. 

 

 

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Forget Macron who is simply following French policy in the manner of De Gaulle, says Greg Ip in WSJ. The European Union has already set its policy to decouple its relationships in the supply chain from China, it just calls it something else -"de-risking." The EU he says is even tougher about this than the US. The EU's Leyen has stated: "The Chinese Communist Party's clear goal is a systemic change of the international order with China at its center... We need to ensure that our companies capital, expertise and knowledge are not used to enhance the military and intelligence capabilities of those who are also systemic rivals."  Mikko Huotari, the head of the Berlin based think tank Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies says that the US and the EU arrived at this through a process that went on in parallel. In fact the Scandinavian countries such as Sweden and Denmark, and the Baltic countries came across this much earlier before Biden became president because of acrimonious relations with China. This is also true of countries in Eastern Europe such as Czech Republic.  Germany's position is based on finding a transitional period for decoupling to reduce the impact on its economy. And even China is aware of this situation and looking for a transitional period for decoupling. More significant is the attitude of companies says Greg Ip- companies such as Tesla, Apple and even Airbus that have continued investments in China with little change. And it is this that president Biden is seeking to change with US policy positions. Another less observed aspect of this is the realization of both the US and EU, that the clear and obvious mistake of overconcentration of the supply chain in China was made under Merkel and the Bush-Obama adminstrations. China too realizes that it would have been better off - less recrimination from workers in the US,  and less costly damaging growth that led to climate change- if there was not this much overconcentration of the supply chain in China. In short it benefitted no one, and happened simply because companies sought to take advantage of attractive offers of building in China offered by local governments in China with subsidies from the Chinese government, and the manufacturing capabilities that kept expanding in a virtuous circle as better infrastructure and logistics were built over time. It goes to show that unless governments are vigilant and aware of these risks the unintended can happen with different consequences including destabilizing the social fabric and the political structure of western democracies.  ...

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Mitt Romney states the case for supporting free trade both in principles and practice. Acceptance of the staus quo allows China to game the world trading system, says Romney. In the end accepting the status quo may do more damage to the world's trading system than any efforts to correct the misalignment in currencies and failure to rebalance the world economy. He questions the passive approach of some members of Congress and the Obama administration on the grounds that starting a trade war makes them nervous. China with $273 billion more in exports than imports to the U.S. has reason to see this issue objectively, even with all the noise it is making about trade retaliation, suggests Romney. Other experts have pointed to the problems the misalignment creates for China's economy. A New York Times editorial on October 15, 2011, cites figures from the Peterson Institute of Economics showing this costs China $240 billion a year through trade surpluses in dollars that are declining in value. For years China's fears are that this would lead to higher unemployment. This New York Times editorial points out that jobs have increased by about 1% a year since 2004, even with 10%+growth, because many of the manufacturing jobs use advanced manufacturing technologies. A firm response today also makes it possible to avoid the kind of sudden response that could take place later on if public opinion overwhelmingly shifts away from trade with China under status quo conditions. ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...