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Singer songwriter Paul Simon performed in concert recently. He releases his new album "So Beautiful or So What" on April 12. Simon, now 69, seems a generation away to younger audiences. His lyrics are great, but his music reflects the point of view Simon held at the time he wrote the lines. He has explored gospel, reggae, Mexican folk, South African mbaqanga, and Afro-Brazilian music over the years. The reach to younger audiences is not the same as Dylan's. But the range and depth of his talent as a composer is amazing- with 17 studio albums. He was the first recipient of the Library of Congress's Gershwin Prize for Popular Song. He has little time for image, believing it best to lead with his lyrics to get across a profoundly felt view of things. And sometimes the reading of a song like "Peace Like a River," leaves a lasting impression on the mind.

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One of the good things after the pandemic is that people are going to spend more time in their home countries instead of travelling overseas, says this report in the DW.com. World tourism has grown too quickly and too fast in the last two decades. Places everywhere are becoming extremely congested. I remember visits to Paris, to Notre Dame cathedral and its surroundings, in the eighties and nineties and compare them to two decades later with regret that it has changed for the worse. By 2010 everyplace looked different, transport, hotels, streets were so congested as to make trips less exciting and less fun to do.  The question posed here is whether having 3 million less people travelling around the world is such a bad thing? It says the tourism industry has grown so quickly and so fast that it poses a danger to the environment, to the quiet of neighborhoods and cities, driving a commodities culture. As this writer says it drives locals away from the cities they have lived in for generations, and robs those who stay of the quiet lives they have enjoyed. In fact once the cities experienced so much less pollution during gradual reopening, and streets had less traffic, a lot of people turned to use bicycles. Bicycle lanes were replacing car traffic lanes. A return to calmer living with enjoyment of one's own neighborhoods and cities, and travel within one's own country, is becoming an attractive alternative. People now remember that it was the huge amount of airline traffic that spread the pandemic from cities in Asia to cities in Europe, and cities in America. It also spread quickly through tourist destinations inside Asia and Africa, and Latin America. Even some of the early clusters in Germany, Italy and the U.S. had their origins in the the spread of globalized supply chains in China, Germany, and Italy for automobiles. Auto industry business people traveled to places in or near Wuhan, then to Bavaria, and on to northern Italy in the global supply chain for automobile manufacturing.  As new nations like China and India with billions of people are added to world tourism this changes everything in a way never imagined before. This pandemic gives one a pause to rethink whether it was a good idea in the first place to seek fulfilment by travel outside one's own country, without first exploring it and one's own neighborhoods in a quieter setting. We travel to new places seeking fulfillment. There comes a time when the tourism today has become so big that it is not sustainable, safe or economical anymore. A rethink and new habits make sense.     ...

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The South China Morning Post, SCMP, looks at China at the 40th year of the great economic experiment  that changed China. This started with the Deng reforms by the then Chinese leader that opened up the economy in 1978. As this report points out in 1978 Deng Xiaoping's efforts at loosening the state control of the economy and business was actually a way to get out from the effects of the Cultural Revolution and prevent another Cultural Revolution. Deng was removed from office during the Cultural Revolution. Instead of unquestioned acceptance of Mao the new criterion was "Practice is the Sole Criterion for Testing Truth." In economic and business matters this was followed so that if it worked then the experiment was expanded, gradually giving life to the Chinese model of state capitalism, economic expansion under the state with the state supporting state corporations that operate in a market economy.  This means the Communist Party was to continue its control but with experimentation away from the planned economy in the coastal provinces of Guangdong and Fujian, and then into Shanghai. Experts close to Jiang Zemin, the next leader after Deng, say China's Communist state would not have survived without the changes started by premier Deng. Farmers still did not own the land but they were free to plant and own the yields for their efforts.  Deng established the Three Benefits Principle in 1992 trip to Guangdong, whatever helped increase productivity, increased the strength of the country and improved living standards was good, you did not judge it by whether it was socialist or capitalist. Jiang Zemin's work was to follow Deng's ideas and help negotiate the entry into World Trade Organization and set up the new economic regulations. Capitalists were allowed to join the Communist Party for the first time. State and local government ownership of land was turned into an advantage as this provided one of the critical inputs in terms of land for setting up new factories, with capital coming from savings, and other inputs of technology and investment coming from the U.S. after entry into the WTO brought American and European companies to China. A steady supply of labor poured in from the countryside and urbanization became a goal of Chinese development policies. Today India and other countries in Africa, Latin America, can look at the Chinese experience and effort and look for ways to modernize, urbanize and improve living standards, productivity and strength of their economy. One key is to experiment and look for what works that can then be expanded to other locations, and build on the advantages that may open up as the experiment makes progress. Following entry into WTO China was able to take advantage of overseas markets and build an edge in manufacturing, something that was not evident even in 1992.   ...

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When Manmohan Singh and Wen of India and China said in Beijing that the people of both countries were united in their aspirations for the future this was very real and sincerely stated. Geopolitics is somebody's game who does not know his own country, people and history in these long neglected parts of Asia. Here in India or China in different ways its these aspirations that matter. India is desperately trying now to improve schooling after years of neglect for the country's rural poor, where the quality of government schools is startlingly poor. The figures are dismal. In general only 1 in 10 college age Indians go to college. But its worst at the lower poorer parts of society. Among the poorest 20% of Indian men half are illiterate and only about 2% graduate from high school. For the top 20% of Indian people only 2% are illiterate and 50% are high school graduates. The problems even as the government pans to triple spending in the next 5 years run deep. There is no motivation among school teachers because for years the schools have been neglected and there is no education culture in poor villages, teachers are poorly trained if at all, they are late or absent and there islittle discipline and education ethic. Parents are very poor and do not understand the value of education and want to pull children out of school to earn wages for the family as migrant labor. The parents are illiterate or poorly educated so there is very little help at home. And there is corruption as some of the money to be invested in school buildings, equipment, lunches, teachers, etc is stolen or goes to bribes. There are some dedicated people but they get washed out in the midst of so much apathy, lack of conviction, corruption and lack of motivation among teachers parents and village officials....

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How globalization which for over a long period since China and India and other emerging nations joined the global trading system helped bring disinflation and lower prices to the developed countries is now closing that chapter. And starting a new one in which the rapid development of these developing countries is strengthening their currencies and the growth of the middle class and increasing demand for commodities, food and energy, in this way driving up prices. China wants to move up to manufacturing more sophisticated products and is no longer interested in the kind of development where workers wages suffered so that domestic consumption suffered, where lax environmental protection caused serious damage to the environment and where the fous was on production of low value added products in textile, toys, shoes, furniture. This means a lot of factories from this era will close and those that operate will raise prices to reflect increased costs to meet new laws and loss of rebates for low value added products. All this means the disinflationary impact of production and export from China is over. Meanwhile a number of trends have gone to raise prices of food products and commodities. Its astonishing but the price of rice has gone up by 147% over the last 12 months. The World Bank estimates that food prices have gone up by 83% over the last 3 years. This adds to the distress of communities across the developing world. And iron ore producer Vale of Brazil pushed through price increase of iron ore by 65%. This will be reflected in price increases in everything made of steel like Caterpillar tractors and so on. Baosteel in China has raised prices by 17-20% recently. Countries with pegs to the dollar and exporters of commodities like the Middle Eastern countries are seeing inflation from both the peg as the dollar loses value and everything costs more and from the boom fueled by government spending....

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In 1933 Roosevelt helped set up the minimum wage but failed to index it to inflation. At $7.25 an hour in 2009 it still leaves people below the poverty line. "A self supporting and self respecting democracy sees no economic reason for chiselig workers' wages" FDR said at the time. It was set at 30 cents in 1933.

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The top fifth of earners in New York City earned 53% and the bottome fifth 3%. The proportion of New York City residents below the poverty line declined to 18,5% from 19.2% in year ended July 1, 2006. The proportion of poor children down to 27.3%. Figures are from the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey.

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H-P CEO Apotheker says that to be successful in the business of consumer devices like the PC it would have to invest a lot of capital that could be better invested elsewhere. This capital invested in a low margin business such as PC's coud be freed up to generate the size of capital H-P will need to compete in software and services with companies such as Oracle and IBM. As part of this makeover of H-P the company will take a $1 billion restructuring charge to shut down the tablet and smartphone operations. H-P invested $1.2 billion for the Palm acquisition in 2010 to acquire an operating system for those devices. Apotheker expressed disappointment with the sales of the tablet devices and smartphones. This decision happens 10 years after the decision by H-P to acquire Compaq Computer Corporation for $25 billion. In 2008 H-P acquired Electronic Data Systems for $13.9 billion. With the new strategy Apotheker is focussing on software. Apotheker brings experience in software as CEO of SAP Inc in his previous position and understands the software business. The agreement for the acquisition of U.K. software firm Autonomy for $10.3 billion this week is part of the makeover of H-P under Apotheker....

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H-P CEO Leo Apotheker defends H-P's plan to spin off its PC unit. He says it wasn't possible for H-P to invest enough in the business to be competitive and make the necessary structural changes needed in other parts of H-P's business. The new product development cycles are much faster than what a congomerate like H-P could accomplish in areas such as the tablet PC, as consumers are looking for a stream of new product devices. H-P's PC unit generated $40.1 billion in revenues and $2 billion in operating profit in the recent fiscal year. Analysts say H-P has overpaid for Autonomy, leaving less money available for additional strategic moves. Apotheker defended that decision saying the Autonomy acquisition makes it possible for H-P to skip a generation of technology as it enables businesses to make sense of unstructured data.

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The Third Biennial Update Report at COP26 Glasgow shows where India stands on renewable energy, solar, forest cover enhancement, and improving carbon intensity in its climate change efforts so far.  For instance a 17 times increase in solar in the last 7 years to 45 gigawatts, with target of 450 gigawatts by 2030. In carbon intensity 24% improvement between 2005-2014. Scientist Bhatt presented the report for India's Environment Ministry saying India represented 17% of the world's population and historically 4% of world carbon emissions, today 5%. Improvements of carbon intensity per unit of GDP planned under Mod's plan for 2030 require 45% reduction in carbon intensity by 2030. This suggests the trajectory of China will be avoided where highly polluting parts of industries such as steel and cement were left unregulated and lacking strict supervision leading to rampant pollution in 2000-2021. Mr. Birol, head of the Renewables Energy Agency said on BBC's "Hard Talk" program recently that if you combine all of China's steel and cement factory carbon emissions, that alone would equal the total sum of carbon emissions of the whole European Union today. A quick look at a graph of global carbon emissions trajectories shows three fold increase of China's carbon emissions from about 4 billion tons to 12 billion tons between 2000-2021, the period and the explosion of carbon that is the one activity that singlehandedly created the crisis of climate change today. By comparison US remains at about 6 billion tons of emissions, and EU, US, Britain Japan show flat trajectories. Business, globalization interests, US and European financial interests, and local governments in China that financed this explosion in steel and cement ignored the implications of so much pollution in so short a time through unregulated activities- writing a chapter of failure with most of the world's people left to bear the results of such a failure.  It is this that India plans to correct with a 45% improvement in carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2030, and nothing could be more important in the government's plan than this. New technologies will be key for this. Modi and India realize how vulnerable India is to floods, drought stricken areas, shortages of water, and climate extremes, and see these plans as critical for healthy growth that benefits all of India's people and regions, It is a long term vision like no other today and sets a new direction for all developing regions of Asia, Latin America and Africa. As India leads the way in new technologies and ambitious programs such as one solar, one world, one grid, these technologies will also break open new paths for the regions of the world that need this most from Brazil to Indonesia.  China too suffers from the impact of so much pollution. Even as early as 2010 reports showed the higher pollution had lowered life expectancy in northern region of China compared to its southern region. Yet the most polluting factories were not removed and only recently is the activity being conducted seriously leading to the shortages of fuel from so much overexpansion in the boom years, and making adjustments done abruptly today more difficult.   ...

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US president Biden's historic speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, where the Declaration of Independence was debated and written- "We believe that all men are created equal..." Since 1776 these lines have inspired people for 200 years and Biden says they will continue to do this for the next 200 years, as America stands as a beacon for the people of the world aspiring for a better life. Click on Original Article to see the You Tube video of this speech, and see below Lincoln's speech at Independence Hall in 1861.These are also the aspirations for millions of people in Asia, Africa and Latin America and in the US and Europe as the door opens this much wider for people all over the world because of America. Through the War of Independence and the events of the Civil war, and other events in America's life as a nation and a beacon for the world, Independence Hall has been a special place. President Lincoln also stopped by here in 1861 on his way to the White House as the Civil War began. Here is what president Lincoln said at Independence Hall on Feb . 22, 1861. "Mr Cuyler- I am filled with deep emotion at finding myself standing here in the place where were collected together the wisdom, the patriotism, the devotion to principle, from which sprang the institutions under which we live. You have kindly suggested to me that in my hands is the task of restoring peace to our distracted country. I can say in return sir, that all the political sentiments I entertain have been drawn, from the sentiments which originated and were given to the world from this hall in which we stand. I have never had a feeling politically, that did not spring from the sentiments embodied in the Declaration of Independence. (Great cheering). I have often pondered over the dangers which were incurred by the men who assembled here and adopted the Declaration of Independence- I have pondered over the toils of the officers and soldiers of the army, who achieved independence. (Applause). I have often inquired of myself, what great principle or idea that kept this confederacy so long together. It was not the mere separation of the colonies from the mother land; but something in that Declaration giving liberty, not alone to the people of this country, but hope to the world for all future time. (Great applause). It was that which gave promise that in due time the weights should be lifted from the shoulders of all men, and that all should have an equal chance. (Cheers.) This is the sentiment embodied in that Declaration of Independence." "Now, my friends can this country be saved on that basis? If it can, I will consider myself one of the happiest persons in the world if I can help to save it. If it can't be saved on that principle, it will be truly awful. But, if this country cannot be saved without giving up that principle- I was about to say I would rather be assassinated on this spot than to surrender it. (Applause). ...

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To get a right grasp of the situation as a whole from the bigger picture than the headlines, is to know that even in the current chaotic immigration handling of both parties, the US comes out a winner in long term by 2034. That it gives for the younger generation a better future. Congress's Budget Office economic report shows GDP higher by 2% from the higher immigration of 5.2 million added to the US workforce by 2034. US productivity higher by 0.2% and residential investment including construction up by a whopping 10%. The younger profile of immigrants will help the US compete with India's younger population, and as China ages to have what it and Europe is aspiring to have- a younger population. The best way to look at the immigration issue is for the short term- manage it better by organized method of immigration without chaotic border crossings by allowing potential immigrants to apply from their home country, a step taken by the Biden administration. What it or any Republican administration could not control is the immigration that happens from countries the US is at war with or in conflict with. It is important to recognize that this is what happened with Venezuela the largest component of the immigration border crossings in 2023. It was made worse by actions of both parties Democrats and Republicans and made worse in 2017 by more severe sanctions on Venezuela under the Trump administration.  Also part of the problem is Venezuelan mismanagement- providing oil at pennies a gallon, hurting imports and spiralling inflation that only worsened under US sanctions after 2017. Long term- To reflect that US sanctions on top of mismanagement by Venezuela is a warning for all developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and for the US. It meant 7 million refugees a staggering quarter of Venezuela's population fleeing the country, that burdened neighbors Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile. By 2022-2023 many of these refugees were making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Yet within this tragic situation for Venezuelan people how could the US best respond is to close the border as president Biden has proposed with McConnell and the Lankford effort in the Senate, which was blocked by the House under Mike Johnson. This gives time to assess the situation, correct US laws on asylum and parole that allowed this chaotic way to proceed under actions of both parties.And not let this destabilize the US by understanding that while Venezuela has suffered for its role in the crisis the US will ultimately have come out a winner, as pointed out by the Congressional Budget Office projections. CBO projections of this immigration impact by 2034 of increasing the workforce population by 5.2 million will provide higher GDP, more tax revenues, and higher productivity than without this group of Venezuelan and other immigrants in this special situation of 2022-2023. For the Immigration projections discussion given by Phillip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office see page 51 of the Budget and Economic Outlook 2024 to 2034. For this search for term Congressional Budget Office or CBO which brings up the report on PDF and turn to page 51 or just click on Original Article on Lyrarc.   ...

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

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Faces of migrants to Germany as Germany sees the migrants as what German chancellor Merkel calls- "A huge national challenge, not only for days or months, but for a long period of time." German civil society shows openness, and German educational institutions offer support. About 800,000 refugees will be accepted in Germany in 2015, says Merkel. An adult migrant is given 143 euros a month for pocket money and 216 euros for basic needs, medical costs are covered. Children are taken care of or attend school while their parents applications are reviewed. Registered migrants are given housing and food. The system works like nowhere else in the world, as most migrants focus on getting to Germany. The condition of the migrants is desperate- one child had not eaten for 4 days. And local doctors examine migrants, with some referred to local hospitals.

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David Malpass is the choice of the Trump administration to head the World Bank. He has worked with Latin American countries at the State Department, was the Treasury official responsible for the World Bank in the Reagan administration, and worked on Argentine currency, China trade matters in the Trump administration.

Malpass negotiated a $13 billion replenishment for the World Bank in 2017, with U.S. share of $1.2 billion. This capped the bank's lending at $25 billion.

Last year the World Bank provided China with $60.5 billion in loans for 400 projects, which this WSJ editorial says is loans China does not need with its $3.07 trillion in foreign reserves. This editorial is critical of the current World Bank head Dr. Kim for taking a job with a World Bank partner the private equity fund GIP.

The World Bank has played a significant role in development for South Asia and China in the early years after World War II.

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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....

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Toyota's goal is to remain the preeminent automobile manufacturer in emerging markets and the IMV is part of its strategy for achieving this goal. The IMV series for emerging markets, with one million in manufacturing capacity coming off a single platform to lower costs, is designed to meet local needs from a price standpoint and rough road conditions. Sales of one million off of a single platform is an achievement only Toyota will have achieved. A minivan, a sport utility vehicle and 3 pickup trucks are all made from a single chassis, with localized production since 2004. The IMV series is expected to account for 10% of the 9.58 vehicle sales goal for 2012. CEO Akio Toyoda plans to increases sales in emerging markets to 50% of total sales by 2015, up from 40% in 2011. IMV vehicles are made in 11 emerging market countries- in Argentina, India, South Africa and Thailand, and are sold as the Hilux pickup, the Fortuner SUV, and the Innova minivan. Over the years Toyota has transferred more of the design and development to emerging market countries to meet local preferences and reduce the effects of a strong yen, leaving only core components to be designed and manufactured in Japan. As it recovers from supply disruptions due to floods in Thailand and the tsunami in Japan, Toyota is planning on sales of 9.58 million in 2012, a steep climb of 21% from the 7.95 million sold in 2011....

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The partition of Iraq would have lead to increased ethnic conflicts and civil war which is what all sides in Iraq recognized. Sunch partitions lead to ethnic cleansing and even more hostilities. As Senor says here the partition would have involved expelling Iraqis from their home on a large scale. A bigger wave than the refugee situation before this from ethnic strife as it would now be official. Compare this to the partition of India. Once its official a huge wave of expelling begins and an official kind of ethnic cleansing occurs as hotilities increase and each of these partitioned areas starts to get outside help from neighboring countries and an arms race in the area begins and new fears are aroused. No question things were bad but it its to the credit of all the Iraqi parties and leaders that they had the good sense to act in the right way. As Senor asks what do you do with Kirkuk which is majority Kurdish but has a large Sunni population. Its also to the credit of Bush advisors and General Petraeus that they continued to persevere when things looked very dim. A further inflammation in Iraq would not affect people in Des Moines or Biden's Delaware so when things get really nasty its easy for an expert or politician in the USA or Europe to take some policy action and then leave leaving that region in Asia or Africa to bear the consequences....

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The Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet i Sao Paulo, Brazil. On the side the BRIC countries finance minsters hold their first meeting. Brazilian President Da Silva calls for greater say for the BRIC countries and for countries like Argentina, Mexico, South Africa, Nigeria, S. Korea and other large developing country economies in shaping the new global financial architecture. There is extreme frustration in Brazil that all their efforts to build a better life for millions of Brazilians may come to nought, and the first real sustained growth in decades that came to Brazil may now be cut short abruptly with huge cost to millions or rural and urban poor, a fate shared by all the BRIC and other developing countries. Wall Street source of the crisis remains closed to the BRIC and developing countries in the sense that what goes on there is determinied by insiders from the G7 countries, but the severe consequences of a fallout in Wall Street on trade and credit hit these countries just when there was hope for millions to live a better life. Just as when the Asian crisis and other crises hit in the last two decades there is a lot of talk about global financial architecture with Treasury's Rubin then and IMF's Kahn and World Bank's Zoellick now making statements, but no clue except to accept the need for getting the large developing countries of the G20 to the table for concerted action. ...