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A Turkey and UN supported agreement is reached in Istanbul, Turkey, between Russia and Ukraine that would enable export of 20 million tons of Ukraine grains at its ports. Turkey and UN would inspect the ships to ensure no weapons smuggling is taking place and Ukrainian vessels would take the grain carrying ships through safe channels in the Black Sea. This will also get Russian grain out through the Black Sea ports.

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Anantha Nageswaran of the CEA tells Sansad TV that the RBI estimate of 6.4% is close to the government's estimate of growth. He says RBI's estimate is based on oil prices of $95 per barrel higher than it is today. He says India's financial system is in much better shape than in the previous decade and the corporate sector is deleveraged, MSME's are in good shape with government support, giving the government confidence in its figures for growth.

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This WSJ Editorial Board view of the situation in eastern Ukraine in the Donbas region is that Russian forces aim to secure the whole southern region including port of Odessa and its link with global commerce. It says Russia seeks to also control Moldova, close to Romania, and would then be a threat to other NATO countries with significant Russian population. It calls for a vigorous program of military aid to Ukraine to prevent such a situation from happening before some sort of ceasefire takes place.

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A You.Gov poll taken for The Times in the last 5 days says 9 out of 10 Tory voters have decided who they will vote for as ballot papers went out this week. And 60% will vote for Liz Truss who has widened her lead to 34 points over Rishi Sunak. Tory party voters for the leadership by a majority or 53% say Boris Johnson should not have resigned. Only 41% say Boris Johnson should resign. Mr. Johnson supported Liz Truss, as do most of the cabinet.

When asked who can get Tories a majority in the next election Truss at 39% has a 20 percentage point lead over Sunak. From this it appears that if Tories themselves and not the cabinet had decided Boris Johnson would still be prime minister, and Liz Truss takes on the premiers role with the same style and spirit of Brexit that Johnson brought to the role and would consider Mr. Johnson as part of the close advisers.

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A Flash Eurobarometer poll before French elections in 2017 show 56% of Europeans in the EU saying the euro is a good thing, only 36% saying its not, those saying its good at 64% in Germany, and being 57% in Spain, and 53% in France. Walker of the WSJ says the euro has survived the crises of the last few years, with some but not all the steps taken to avoid a repeat of the problems, and public opinion still favoring the eurozone as it looks forward to economic growth in coming years. The middle class is not attracted to risking its savings in euro denominated assets, costs of the turmoil that might be caused by leaving the euro act as a signal for caution, and in Southern Europe countries remember the days before the euro with devaluations and high inflation. With gradual economic recovery it appears that the euro is still the best option there is. Surveys show three fourths of the French oppose leaving the euro, and experts say the euro is not to blame for France's slow economic recovery- more confidence and political stability with economic renewal are seen as the ways to get France going again. This may be why the national elections in France will likely bring a president who is pro-EU. ...

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Much of the inflation reduction actions were taken by the US Federal Reserve as the central bank of the Nation and by president Biden in passing the Inflation Reduction Act and investing in growing the economy. All this may be jeopardized by the action of a Trump administration limiting the independence of the central bank. The support for crypto currency by Trump creates more risks to the economy. Additional risks are posed by the views expressed in Project 2025 on the US central bank. It is stated that the financial stability mandate be removed, that employment stability be removed and its regulatory role be effectively taken out. A commission to be appointed to look at alternatives to the central banking role of the US Fed. There are inflationary episodes and banking crises yet they stem from poor behaviour of banks as private players (2009 financial crisis) and price gouging by companies and firms and are not because of the central bank. There are also episodes of poor management  which reflected the culture of that period such as Libertarian culture under Greenspan. As in management in private industry firms good or poor managers make adifference. The institution created of the central bank around 1910 comes from the crises that happened in the period before that  and how it evolved into its postwar role. This includes the Great Depression when it did not have its regulatory, financial stability and employment role. Tampering with the basic structure that has evolved over 100 years of experience would cause lasting damage to the US economy and expose it to hidden risks. This would put a severe burden on the Nation after the loss of one million lives in the pandemic that just happened, the cost of living crisis, and the severe impact that decades of loss of local manufacturing have placed on communities across America- which both the US Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell and president Biden have fought so hard to tackle. ...

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Toshiba is up for auction. It shows what an accounting scandal can do to a company which is what happened at Toshiba in 2015, followed by bankruptcy of its nuclear business, and sale of assets. It is now more than half owned by foreign shareholders, and companies outside Japan are bidding for the company. It still has valuable technology in batteries, semiconductors and elevators.

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The Judge in the classified documents case sets the trial date for a speedy trial that takes place not in December as requested by the prosecution but a few months later in May 2024. This means the American people can have all the full facts and information to make their decisions on the course for America to follow in the next 25 years.

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Under a landmark ruling by a federal court in Leipzig, German cities can now ban older diesel engine vehicles. The cities of Stuttgart and Dusseldorf are allowed to legally ban older higher polluting diesel cars from zones that are badly affected by air pollution. Environmental group DUH brought the lawsuit after 70 German cities exceeded European Union limits for nitrogen oxides (NOx) in 2017. NOx emissions can cause respiratory disease and difficulty breathing. Diesel engines produce high levels of nitrogen oxide, and low levels of carbon dioxide. EU air quality standards are not being met in cities across Europe, so that this could set a precedent for Europe, says the BBC. Of the 15 million diesel cars on German roads only 2.7 million meet the latest Euro-6 standards, according to German automotive watchdog agency. Diesel car market share is dropping- falling to 39% in 2017 from 48% in 2015. The VW diesel emissions scandal in 2015 further eroded public confidence. The German government already has suggested alternatives such as offering free public transport in cities with poor air quality. The government opposed the ruling because it did not want the car industry to bear the additional cost of retrofitting older vehicles at a time when German carmakers were investing in electric vehicles.  Yet the trend is clear. Paris, Madrid, Mexico City, Athens have pledged to ban diesel vehicles from the centre of cities by 2025, with Copenhagen doing this in 2019. ...

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Laurent Berger is the likely candidate for bringing together all social democratic and socialist parties in France.  French Socialist parties and leaders Melenchon, Glucksmann, and others in Greens party join together to contest the Assembly elections June 30, July 7. This means the socialist parties have finally made the decision to come up with ways to tackle the cost of living crisis, loss of manufacturing, lack of investment in infrastructure that can make a difference in the daily lives of working people. This was missing in Macron's plan as En Marche was built by Macron based on his detecting an opportunity during the last year of Socialist Hollande's term in 2017, not with a well thought out plan for renewal in France. The years of the presidential first and second terms did not work from a plan to tackle the issues facing working class families and benefitted as much from the alienation that had driven working class votes in different directions from the failures of Socialist or Social Democratic leaders. This happened in Germany with Scroeder, in Britain with Gordon Brown, and in France with Hollande, in the US with Clinton and Obama. The path that president Biden has taken to invest in infrastructure with bipartisan support, to invest in manufacturing with bipartisan support is what the Social Democratic and Socialist parties in France with bipartisan help now need to take up. ...

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The Wash. Post says the former president's speech as it wore on for 90 minutes rambling on without clarity on discussion of issues and policies for the future was a missed opportunity. Nothing was said about bringing down the cost of living when so many actions on multiple fronts are needed. Nothing on climate change or climate change action but leaving it out out of denial it exists during the worst heat waves and floods in a century. It is now Biden's turn to spell out the details of policies for cost of living action step after step of action, says the Post. Post readers say so far the Post titles and phrases it uses are more out of social media and ask ominously is it itself turning into social media as shown by the post of Letters it has received on coverage of Biden and the future 2024-2028 on this Lyrarc page.

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The only way the Conservatives can form a majority to govern in Britain is by getting the support of the Democratic Unionist Party with its 10 seats, and this would still give Conservatives 328 seats in parliament, with 326 required for a majority. This very thin 3 seat majority could lead to a fall of the government if a couple of Conservative party members defected. Here Davies points out that though the Democratic Unionist party supports Brexit it is of a very different nature. The party is based in Ireland and originated with Rev. Ian Paisley. With its Irish roots it wants free movement of goods and people across the border with Ireland which is an EU member, access to EU funding and protection for farmers. Ireland has shown serious concern about the Brexit vote, and Northern Ireland voters voted against Brexit 56% to 44% for Brexit. This open border and EU support is close to what is currently in place. As Davies points out this puts the whole Brexit negotiating process in doubt, with no coherent position for Britain at all, leading to a collapse of the talks and no deal with the European Union. Another reason the doubts about Brexit are likely to grow is that a large part of the UK Independence Party support has disappeared, with UKIP getting 1.8% of the vote compared to about 11% in 2015 election. The combined vote of the parties that see Brexit as a priority for Britain was in fact about 45.1%, combining Conservatives 42.4%, Democratic Unionist 0.9% and UKIP 1.8%. The parties that did not see Brexit as a priority for Britain won over 50% of the vote this time- Labor 40.0%, Scottish National party 3.0%, Liberal Democrats 7.4%, according to BBC. Davies says the increasing uncertainty is bad for the British economy. In coming months doubts are likely to grow about whether the referendum was a priority for Britain, and how this is a distraction from the other serious issues facing the British economy to ensure a better future. ...

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This report in WSJ says at an event in Germany in 2022 Merkel said that after annexing Crimea in 2014 Putin told her he wanted to destroy the European Union. Yet Merkel did not hesitate to double gas imports from Russia after 2014. Joachim Gauck, president of Germany when Putin invaded Ukraine in 2014 says Merkel's decision to boost energy imports from Russia after that aggression was surely a mistake. Gauck stated "some people recognize their mistakes earlier, some later. Her decisions for over concentration of Germany's manufacturing in China led to a similar situation with China that is only now beginning to unravel. The two decisions overconcentration of energy dependence on Russia and manufacturing dependence with overconcentration in China have had interwoven effects and shows Merkel did not grasp the implications and dangers of overconcentration or excessive dependence on any one country. Merkel instead doubled gas imports from Russia and had the Nord Stream 2 pipeline built at a time when Germany was already 55% dependent on Russian imports of energy. She moved too quickly to phase out nuclear energy completely after Fukushima accident leading to Russian gas imports rapidly increasing. When leaving office she said LNG which Germany has now used to replace Russian gas from places such as Norway to Qatar under efforts of Deputy chancellor Habeck was a third more costly.  It could be said that with her sheltered upbringing in the more affluent sections of Communist East Germany's, the GDR's, educational sector, Merkel had such limited exposure to the world that when she emerged as Kohl's preferred choice in ministry positions she was headed for the chancellorship without the right qualifications for leadership. When one considers the experience of an Konrad Adenauer or a Willy Brandt through the World War II years, Merkel's experience for the chancellorship not only pales by any comparison, but also shows significant limits of comprehension and sound or right thinking of the issues facing Germany and the world in the twentieth and twenty first century. ...

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 Americans in the southern states forget that president Kennedy made the famous statement about "a rising tide lifts all boats" in Arkansas, a poor southern state, saying that America must invest in all regions in people in all parts not just in well off northeastern states. In a handful of southern states expanding Medicaid to about $43,000 or 138% of the federal poverty level for a family of four is now being taken up by Republican leaders who show new openness- in Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi. Noah Weiland -of NYT looks at one particular battle -between Democrat Governor Laura Kelly in Kansas and Republican Speaker Hawkins- in Topeka, Kansas, where the fight goes on. Hawkins calling it the greatest Ponzi scheme devised and Kelly telling this reporter that she has included a work requirement so there is no excuse for not doing this. Republicans are coming around and so are states in other places. Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma, states that lie next to Kansas have approved this through ballot initiatives. The point here is that in the years as America comes out of the pandemic there is and should rightly be a realization that this is different, that the children of low income families deserve as equal a chance as their higher income fellow Americans, that depriving them of good medical care makes America a weaker country. As Jerome Powell of the US Fed said in Stanford today about Kennedy's expression of "lifting all boats," it is just this that is needed today. It will be the No.1 election issue in Kansas in 2024, says Governor Kelly. The Republicans are also having second thoughts and are now just face saving. Consider that the Kansas Health Institute a research group, says 70% of the people becoming eligible for Medicaid expansion are working. Many are restaurant business workers who cannot provide proper medical care to children who form the next generation of America. And hiring in rural hospitals would expand for health workers instead of layoffs in southern states lifting financial strain on rural healthcare with additional Medicaid funds. This helps rural America when it needs it most. ...

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India protests actions by Canada's Trudeau for his support of separatists in Canada. India is a nation of many communities and languages and it does not approve of efforts to separate parts of the country in the way the US has done from the period of the Civi War and Lincoln, and as seen today in Spain, or in the efforts to reintegrate East Germany into West Germany after the cold War. Trudeau belongs to Quebec, a French Canadian province that is part of majority English Canada. Canada's very existence as a federation depends on this nonacceptance of separation of Quebec. It was not long ago that General De Gaulle used the language Vive La Quebec on a visit to Canada leading to protest all over the world and Canadian provinces respecting the integrity of Canada. Mr. Trudeau is president of Canada for that very reason that he and his father Pierre before him respect the idea of Canada as an independent sovereign nation, something he fails to do for political advantage to stay in power with a coalition because of diminished support for his Liberals party.  ...

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US China talks on trade hinge on fentanyl action on export from source material countries- fentanyl action with more American deaths 3 times the Korean and Vietnam Wars is allowed to be a trade negotiation by both sides. The abject failure of politicians and the media in not spotlighting the issue as one common to humanity and one that speaks for people, mothers and sons, daughters, in all races, in many countries, to defend justice and protect the weak. It shows that today's politics and culture is failing the People, the Nation, and the World.

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Most of the issues important to Republicans such as immigration, crime, cultural issues, and national security are well articulated by Mr. Ron de Santis of Florida, without the distraction presented of a sordid affair at a time of cost of living crisis for average Americans, says this report in NYT.

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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House Speaker Pelosi and Majority leader Reid prempt the Bond-Levin proposal to use the $25 billion of funds from the energy efficiency retooling for operating expenses. They said there were just not enough votes to pass the change. And the general feeling was that the automakers had hurt their case more than they had helped it after 2 days of hearings in the Senate and the House on November 18-19, 2008. Pelosi put it this way, "until they show us the plan, we cannot show them the money." The automakers were asked to come up with a plan that shows accountability and viability. Pelosi is from California, a state that has seen its mandate for controlling auto emissions held up by the automakers lobbying and the Bush administration EPA, and which favors higher fuel efficiency, higher than the numbers passed in recent legislation, also held up by the automakers lobbying efforts. So there is a three way battle going on with the states in the midwest and the Bush administration pitted against Pelosi-Reid-Waxman and the younger Obama supporters in Congress for the $25 billion in energy efficiency retooling to be used for salaries and so on. And the other battle pitting the midwestern states against all those who call for strict conditions including firing management, and serious restructuring within or outside prepackaged bankruptcy. Reid and Pelosi called for Congress to reconvene on December 2. Reid said that what happened this week has not been good for the auto industry,, which is ominous, because the hearings showed an unrepentant automaker management which did not accept any of the errors made by management long before the credit crisis in October, which riled Congressmen. Another thing was the reference to corporate jets which came up in the hearings, and Reid emphasized as did others that these guys flying in in their corporate jets did not send a good message to people in Searchlight or Reno, Nevada. The reason this is important is that executive compensation and golden parachutes are moving right to the top as they do in such times, as evidenced by the story in the Wall Street Journal frontpage on November 20 about 120 executives making $21 billion in compensation in the last 5 years including failed companies, see the link. . ...

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In depth interview with Kyohei Morita, chief economist of Barclays Capital, Finance Asia explores different aspects of the Japanese economy and developments after 1987 and under Koizumi, the role of exports and how ordinary households are affected. He points out a few important things about the Japanese economy that are not generally recognized. One is that Japanese banks are vulnerable in the way the subprime crisis has exposed banks in the USA. Their vulnerability comes from owning 15% of the shares on the stock market which came down from a higher number after years of reducing stock holdings. When the Nikkei drops below 9000 this reduces the bank's capital and leads to credit tightening. Morita points out the risk of turning a moderate slowdown from lower exports into a severe slowdown if banks are reluctant to lend. The other point he makes is that small nonmanufacturing companies in Japan have to thrive for Japan to thrive, but he is bearish about private consumption. In a revealing statement he says that in his research he has found that the path connecting corporate profitability to households is seriously eroding. This is due to globalization as Japanese companies are offshoring aggressively, and 30% of the Japanese market capitalization in held by foreigners. His point is that Japanese managers now tend to see wages as costs just like American managers do and not the way they did in the past, so salary costs are suppressed in favor of shareholder dividends which flow out of Japan. Finance Asia referred to an OECD study that shows Japan's ranking in terms of per capita income fell from fifth highest in the OECD in 1992 to 19th in 2002, a fact that Morita recognizes as strange as western economies have tended to follow relatively stable long term income growth, and which he attributes to Japan's terrible demographics with population shrinking since 2006 and more elderly and retired supported by a smaller percentage of working age people. In an exceptionally revealing statement Morita points out that Japan has globalized from the outside but not from the inside. Japan he says needs more foreign direct investment and ideas, and more immigrants, fresh labour and fresh taxpayers. Which is remarkably true as Japan tends to be rather insular as a country and tends to keep out immigrants. The influx of Polish and Eastern European immigrants to the UK under the Blair-Brown Labor government years would be unimaginable in Japan. In the meantime Japan's estimated $15.7 trillion in financial assets held by households or three time national GDP is something that makes it possible for now for Japan to sustain the upward trend in the debt to GDP ratio....

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BBC $49 per year subscription service for it's 139 million users outside UK. Of this 139 million 60 million are in the US. 

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Mr. Ghosn former CEO of Nissan and Renault left Japan for his home country of Lebanon. He was on trial for financial wrongdoing in Japan. Lebanon had put his image on a postage stamp and does not allow extradition of its citizens. Ghosn was required to stay in Japan pending the trial. It is not known how he left the country, some sources say he arrived through Turkey.

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This Editorial Board opinion in the WSJ says the covid test requirement for travelers from China is inadequate because it does not apply to travellers from Europe. In the early part of the pandemic travelers from Europe brought the virus to the US. The virus first spread to Europe from China before entering the US. It does not go into effect for another week. WSJ cites reports that show the surge in cases in China is already accelerating in cities like Shanghai.