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The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
The miracle of Loretta Lynch- (2) a young prosecutor takes on FIFA
11/07/2014
Linked Articles
Loretta Lynch, Federal Prosecutor, Will Be Nominated for Attorney General
New York Times 11/07/2014
FIFA Charges Instantly Earn Loretta Lynch Global RecognitionNew York Times 05/29/2015
Janet Yellen and the depletion of savings and wealth of the lower half of American households in the three decades since 1985
10/17/2014
Linked Articles
Bad Stock-Market Timing Fueled Wealth Disparity
Wall Street Journal 10/27/2014
Fed’s Yellen Says Extreme Inequality Could Be Un-AmericanWall Street Journal 10/17/2014
Questions about whether justice and accountability were accomplished in the U.S. Justice Department's settlement with Credit Suisse
05/19/2014
A WSJ editorial and a separate piece in the NYT question the assumption that justice and accountability were achieved in the U.S. government's settlement with Credit Suisse. The nagging question- is Attorney General Holder simply burnishing his image after failing to establish accountability and justice following the 2008 global financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to America's middle class. Collective wrongdoing starts with individual actions, and holding individuals responsible establishes accountability, so that the public is protected from future actions of this nature. Somewhere since the crisis this principle has been lost in the Obama administration. A churn in management for failures is considered healthy for other American companies, and healthy for free enterprise, readers are likely to wonder why this is not so for the banks.
Linked Articles
Credit Suisse Pleads Guilty in Felony Case
New York Times 05/19/2014
Holder Convicts SwitzerlandWall Street Journal 05/21/2014
GE (General Electric) low tax rate of 4.2% in 2013, 10.3% in 2014, and the move to a normal tax rate in 2015
03/05/2014
An aggressive policy of tax reduction using GE Capital at GE leads to an astonishingly low tax rate. Shareholders see the uncertainty from GE Capital's volatile earnings and tax strategies with great skepticism. GE shares dropped to $6 during the 2008 global financial crisis because of GE Capital losses, and GE needed government rescue funds. The day CEO Immelt announced the decision to exit the banking business GE shares went up by 11%. GE's tax rate without the banking business will go up to about 20%.
Linked Articles
Price of Selling GE Capital? Tax Breaks
Wall Street Journal 04/14/2015
How corporate America is losing the debate on taxesWashington Post 03/05/2014
Britain's RBS bank and the issue of high bank bonuses after a $15 billion loss in 2013
02/27/2014
Linked Articles
Royal Bank of Scotland to Slash Costs as Losses Deepen
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
Bailed-Out Royal Bank of Scotland Sees Years of LossesNew York Times 02/27/2014
Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015
02/21/2014
Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.
Linked Articles
Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted
Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014
India Allocated Coal Fields to Private Companies Illegally, Top Court RulesNew York Times 08/25/2014
A younger generation takes over in Italy- "we are worried that time is passing, and nothing is happening." (2)
02/12/2014
The IMF estimate shows that at the current pace of economic change Italy's growth rate would remain at 0.5% till 2018. Confindustria, Italy's business association, says it is worried that nothing is happening.
Linked Articles
Italian Premier’s Latest Challenge Comes From His Own Party
New York Times 02/12/2014
Italian Prime Minister to Resign, Clearing Path for RenziWall Street Journal 02/14/2014
Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law
02/05/2014
Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.
Linked Articles
Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force
Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014
They quit their jobs, thanks to the health law - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2014
McDonald's and a shift in nutritional habits in the U.S., especially in the younger age groups
01/17/2014
With about one third of the population in developed countries considered obese, there is greater awareness especially among younger people, about the need to read nutritional labels carefully, look for fresh food, and manage calorie intake. There is a shift also away from fast food to places where there is greater nutritional choice and to eating at home. The recession may have induced more people to consider eating less outside.
Linked Articles
Americans' Eating Habits Take a Healthier Turn, Study Finds
Wall Street Journal 01/17/2014
McDonald's Faces 'Millennial' ChallengeWall Street Journal 08/25/2014
The uninsured without health coverage and the Obama health care law- why a majority of uninsured say it will increase their costs
12/18/2013
In a recent CBS/NYT poll 57% of the uninsured say it will increase their healthcare costs, only 20% of the uninsured say it will decrease their costs. A third of the uninsured say they will pay the penalty and not sign up for coverage under the law.
Linked Articles
Uninsured Skeptical of Health Care Law in Poll
New York Times 12/18/2013
Growth in U.S. Health Care Spending SlowsNew York Times 12/18/2013
A younger generation takes over in Italy- Matteo Renzi and a boost for business in Italy (1)
12/10/2013
Linked Articles
Italy's Renzi Pledges to Pay All Arrears
Wall Street Journal 02/25/2014
Rise of Young Leaders Signals a Mandate for Political Change in ItalyNew York Times 12/10/2013
Change and South Africa- The African National Congress in 1944 and the African National Congress in 2013
12/05/2013
The changing mood of young people in South Africa as the ANC fails to live up to its ideals.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/05/2013
In Mandela's Home, Grief and GlorificationWall Street Journal 12/06/2013
China and corruption under the Xi Jinping administration
12/02/2014
Transparency International gives China 36 points , a decline of 4 points in 2014. Since 2013 China has dropped 20 place in the Corruption Perceptions Index, only Turkey had a steeper drop in points in 2014. Transparency, independent judiciary, free speech, whistleblower protection, and accountable government are factors that determine ranking in the index.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 12/09/2014
China Slips in Corruption Perceptions ReportNew York Times 12/02/2014
The struggle to rebuild Liberia's health system so that it can handle another epidemic after the Ebola Virus crisis
10/30/2014
Alongside the report by Helene Cooper from Liberia, Betsy McKay's report provides an exceptional view of the health system and people coping with the Ebola virus in the region.
Linked Articles
West Africa Struggles to Rebuild Its Ravaged Health-Care System
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2015
Liberia’s Ebola Crisis Puts President in Harsh LightNew York Times 10/30/2014
China, the U.S. and Japan- the task of reestablishing peaceful cooperation in the Pacific region after the missteps of 2011-2013
07/09/2014
Meetings for the sixth round of the Strategic and Economic Dialogue in Bieijing between the U.S. and China, and Japanese prime minister's address to the Australian parliament in Canberra, at about the same time in July 2014, showing how the path of peaceful cooperation will have to be actively pursued to remain a reality. Underpinning the hopes of China, Japan and neighboring countries in Asia is the U.S. will and purpose for maininting the post war peace and stability for the benefit of all, that at times has been missing in the words and actions of the Obama administration. Lack of peace in the region would seriously affect China's effort to bring better incomes to the large majority of people still in the countryside and leave China stuck in middle income status of countries like Mexico, damage the prospects of improving incomes of billions of people in India, other parts of Asia and Latin America. In this sense the Japanese people have shown the wisdom of keeping the conditions of peace that have prevailed for the post war period, and the U.S. with undiminished will and purpose in its post war role can affirm the hopes of the people of the region, including the hope of people in China, India, Japan, S. Korea, and Latin America.
Linked Articles
U.S., China try to emphasize potential for cooperation - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2014
Abe's Constitutional Reform Push SlowsWall Street Journal 07/09/2014
Ukraine's crisis of poor governance- the new role of civic activists and young people in 2016
03/22/2014
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
EU Faces Difficult Choices Over UkraineWall Street Journal 03/22/2014
U.S. Federal Reserve policy to leave bond buying tapering unchanged and the lower U.S. growth from adverse weather in 4th quarter 2013-1st quarter 2014
02/28/2014
Yellen leaves Fed policy on the same course as lower growth is attributed to bad weather in Feb. 2014.
Linked Articles
Yellen Sticks to Plan Amid Weather Doubts
Wall Street Journal 02/28/2014
That 2014 Growth Breakout? Not Looking LikelyWall Street Journal 03/02/2014
Setting a path for a better future for the people of Ukraine- Germany, the EU and the U.S.
02/23/2014
Linked Articles
What the West Must Do for Ukraine
New York Times 02/23/2014
Aiding Ukraine's DemocratsWall Street Journal 02/24/2014
U.S. household spending in a very gradual recovery as banks make home loans to people with high credit scores and younger buyers defer purchases
02/18/2014
Linked Articles
Americans’ Debt-Cutting Levels Off
Wall Street Journal 12/12/2014
An Ambiguous Omen, U.S. Household Debt Begins to Rise AgainNew York Times 02/18/2014
A younger generation takes over in Italy- Matteo Renzi and the path ahead (4)
02/12/2014
Linked Articles
Italy's Prospective New Premier Faces Old Hurdles
Wall Street Journal 02/15/2014
Italian Premier’s Latest Challenge Comes From His Own PartyNew York Times 02/12/2014
Losses at RBS in 2013 putting off date at which the UK government's 81% stake can be sold to the private sector
01/28/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/28/2014
Legal Costs Set to Put RBS in the RedWall Street Journal 01/28/2014
The 150 million single children of parents, and the 61 million children of migrant workers- today's young generation in China growing up in unusual conditions
01/17/2014
The children of migrant workers were mostly brought up away from parents in rural areas by grandparents. The children born under a single child policy in urban areas had the opposite happen, with too much attention from doting parents. Both groups were raised in a manner not seen anywhere else in the world and face growing pains and lives with different burdens and needs than the rest of us. China's social and economic experiment may have come too fast, as policy planners may only now begin to realize. A lot may need to be done to address their needs and burdens, not so easily seen as the burdens of pollution and contamination whicha are easily observed.
Linked Articles
End of China’s One-Child Policy Stings Its ‘Loneliest Generation’
New York Times 11/13/2015
Left-Behind Children of China's Migrant Workers Bear Grown-Up BurdensWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
China's steadily growing automobile market in 2014-2015 (2)- the 49% increase in SUV sales in 2013 over 2012
12/16/2013
Ford Motor's early push into SUV's in China is helping it catchup with GM and Toyota.
Linked Articles
Renault to Focus on Building SUVs in China
Wall Street Journal 12/16/2013
Ford's SUVs Propel Its China GainsWall Street Journal 04/08/2014
China PBOC's efforts in early 2014 to slow and slightly reverse appreciation of the yuan and have it trade in a 2% up or down trading range
12/10/2013
PBOC continues to carefully manage the currency in 2014 by slightly lowering its value, with plans to widen the trading range up or down by 2%. The yuan appreciated by 2.9% in 2013.
Linked Articles
China Intervenes to Lower Yuan
Wall Street Journal 02/27/2014
Brawny Yuan Stands Apart from the CrowdWall Street Journal 12/10/2013
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