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Biden goes to Brownsville, Texas, on the same day that Trump goes to the Texas border with Governor Abbott. Biden talks to Border Patrol and Trump visits a barbed wire section of the border with Abbott. The two visits show different approaches to the fight to control border crossings of migrants that reached 250,000 in December, an all time high that requires action and has the support of the president. Biden offered a compromise legislation with Republicans in the Senate which passed 70 to 30 with 22 Republican senators supporting Biden to toughen the asylum policies, add Border Patrol resources, and make it harder for fentanyl to enter the country. Biden has worked out and agreement with China and Xi Jinping as part of an overall economic agreement and cooperation to eliminate the source of fentanyl production in China. Republicans led by Trump hoped to use immigration as an issue in the election in Nov. 2024 and refused to even let the House vote on it, as there is likely a majority in the House that would pass it over Mr. Trump's objections. Republicans now look to president Biden to issue executive orders to get the job done to which Congress offers it deference today. Biden has the State of the Union speech coming up next week.   ...

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WIth China reluctant to make concessions on agricultural imports at a recent Shanghai meeting of Mr. Lighthizer with Chinese trade representatives, the trade dispute with China has escalated. Mr. Lighthizer had little to show Mr. Trump at a meeting in the WHite House. After a 2 hour meeting Mr. Trump told his advisers that his patience was wearing thin. His response on what the U.S. should do- "tariffs." A tweet was prepared saying U.S. would place import duties of 10% on imports of additional $300 billion in Chinese goods. China responded by lowering its currency value to 7 to the dollar to offset the import duties. China also said it was suspending all agricultural imports of U.S. farm products. The U.S. designating China as a currency manipulator.  The situation today is that there is a level of mistrust between president Xi and his advisers and Mr. Trump and his team. The situation has taken a new turn with China saying the U.S. is supporting protests in Hong Kong. President Trump has stated China is waiting it out to deal with a new administration in Washington. Both sides do not see any solutions till after the U.S. elections in 2020. For China there is also the upcoming 70th anniversary of the People's Republic. ...

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Pennsylvania is one of the critical states in the 2020 U.S. election. It is also one of the states hit hard by the coronavirus. Pennsylvania has also seen the impact of layoffs in the vital steel industry during two decades of neglect by previous administrations till the tariffs on steel from China by president Trump began a reversal of this trend. Unemployment is high in Pennsylvania as a result of the pandemic. 51 of 67 counties in the state recorded unemployment rate increases for 2020 that are in the top 20% for the U.S. Pennsylvania and Michigan are two critical states for the 2020 election. Pennsylvania has done much worse than other states including Michigan when it comes to the impact of the pandemic on unemployment rates in all counties. Voters could decide to blame the Democratic governor for lockdown restrictions  that worsened unemployment or president Trump for his approach to the coronavirus. There is also concern among conservative voters about the kind of change they seek between steady improvement in unemployment and a shift to radical changes in the economy. ...

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US Business has considerable apprehension about the former president in 2024 compared to its willingness to consider Trump in 2016. At the time executives from investment bank Goldman Sachs and heads of oil companies joined the Trump administration. This time US business and corporate interests are apprehensive about becoming the target of a tweet they might find the next morning under a Trump administration. They are not supportive of student loan forgiveness, but when it comes to the CHIPS and Science Act they see president Biden as effective and helping industry. Business leaders have a negative view on the Trump effort through appointment of 3 Supreme Court Justices of overturning decades old rights of women on abortion, and on this issue alone many will support Harris-Walz, overriding other concerns they might have. The visions of Harris and Trump are so vastly different with one calling climate change a hoax and hyping up social issues and infrastructure needs without any record of delivery when in office, and the other a strong position on climate change, wages and income, delivering on infrastructure and CHIPS that US Business. The result is that it leaves US Business with no better option in 2024 than to support the vision  that takes America forward. There are different sections of the business community which have different priorities.  Silicon Valley, and oil, pharmaceuticals because it profits most from light regulation which brings with it social costs is a special issue not addressed here. Other business, banking, automobiles, and a range of other industries have other priorities yet also see the need for the economy and the US to move forward with a different vision than one that simply ignores climate change, and fails to address child care, child poverty, wide disparities in wealth, and other issues facing of wages, cost of living facing most Americans.  ...

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The U.S. trade dispute with China takes a new turn after tit for tat tariffs, with the U.S. president Trump claiming that China was interfering in the U.S. midterm elections. This plays into the narrative in China that the U.S. does not want to see China's ascent as a global power. President Trump and Trade Representative Lighthizer have singled out "Made In China 2025," China's plans for tech leadership as a serious issue for the U.S. President Trump made his claim in a speech at the United Nations, saying that he was "the first president ever to challenge China on trade."

Many of China's tariffs on U.S. exports are targeted at agricultural products such as soyabeans and corn in heavily pro-Trump states, and in rural areas where the Republican party has a significant base. 

 

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Potential Treasury nominee Kevin Warsh is given the possible role at Treasury plus appointment as Fed chairman after 2026 when Jerome Powell retires. At 35 years Kevin Warsh was the youngest governor of the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, appointed in 2006 by George Bush. At the time his appointment was criticized for lack of experience- Warsh comes from upstate New York and went to school at Shaker School in Latham, then Stanford, in economics and a JD at Harvard, followed by 7 years at Morgan Stanley. He was executive secretary of the National Economic Council in 2002. During the bank financial crisis of 2009 the lack of macro regulation led to failure of investment banks. Warsh was able top save Morgan Stanley and he acted as an avenue of information from banks to the Fed.

Warsh left the Fed in 2011 and returned to public service in 2016 when Trump made his first run for president as an adviser to DJT. 

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Western nations including Europe, Canada, Japan and South Korea, are members of the International Enerrgy Agency, which has 1.5 billion barrels in reserve. The IEA will release oil from its reserves to support president Biden's plan to release 180 million barrels over the next 6 months. OPEC that includes Russia plans to increase production by only about 432,000 barrels a day.  During the Trump administration Saudi Arabia and Russia were at odds on production levels leading to Russia increasing production to higher levels than OPEC would allow. This led to a temporary collapse of oil prices to levels as low as $30. To help the US oil fracking industry which could not operate at these low prices president Trump brought the two sides together into what is now OPEC+. The Biden administration has ties with both Iran and Saudis, and aims to revive the Iran nuclear deal, withdrew support for Saudi air strikes on Yemeni Iran backed Huthi rebels. In this geopolitical situation Saudis are reluctant to respond to US calls to increase production as they have done in the past. With climate change and the COP26 agenda in Glasgow there is a plan to shift away from fossil fuels such as coal and oil that are supplied by OPEC and Australia. This means that a shift away from Russian or Saudi oil is also a shift towards renewable energy such as wind and solar which is needed to combat climate change. The Ukraine war and efforts to wean Europe away from Russia sourced energy will accelerate the changes needed to tackle climate change, even though the US fracking industry will step in to increase production at oil prices at $100+ in 2022. After 2023-2024 the push for conservation and renewable energy from today's crisis and Glasgow COP26 commitments, sharp slowdown in China and renewable focused India is likely to bring down oil prices to reasonable levels for a transition period to renewable energy. ...

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NY city Mayor elect Mamdani and DJT meet at the White House on November 20 2025. DJT has kind words for Mamdani and a a collegial spirit for the young mayor elect.

Elle Bisgaard-Church, close adviesr to Zohran Mamdani was present at the meeting and says “we were very heartened” by having the chance to meet the president and discuss the affordability crisis in New York City. Bisgaard said Trump “understands that New York City is a special place” and “he’s willing to join us”  in bringing down the cost of living in New York. Both the president and the young mayor emphasized their shared goal for the good of New York's people and effort to bring down the cost of living that has surged unbelievably in the last 5 years leading to a life from paycheck to paycheck. 

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Gerard Baker in the WSJ says the abortion rulings of the Supreme Court and the Inflation Reduction Act, Climate Change bills have energized Democrats. He says that as the chances of president Trump running as the nominee of the Republican party in 2024 increased in August, the electoral prospects for Congress of the Republican party have diminished. He says the Mar-a-lago taking of documents by FBI and investigation are also now seen as part of national security issues.

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Unintended effects of Title 42 law introduced by president Trump which quickly returns migrants crossing the US border with Mexico leading to repeated crossings by the same persons. This leads to a more complicated picture at the border.  About 2 million will have attempted to cross the southern border in 2022 fiscal year. About 22% of crossings involve repeat border crossers.Two thirds of the 182,000 migrants crossing in July 2022 were single individuals. The pandemic hit Mexico and Central America hard and the quicker economic rebound in the US is leading to a surge in migrants looking for work. In addition to Central America asylum seekers come from Cuba and Venezuela with repressive action by regimes. Mexico only takes some of these migrants back. There is also a flow of illegal drugs across the border from Mexico which continues to this day even after the Trump Wall at the border, as most of it comes through official entry points. Both Republican and Democratic administrations have taken action of different kinds yet the problem remains unresolved. ...

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The former president having 81% of the vote for non college educated in the primaries and  small percentage of votes among college educated means that if elected it would be that a whole population of college educated people are being effectively disenfranchised in choosing the government. It means that democracy that took over 200 years to include people with less education and income in selecting a government has moved in 2024 to doing the opposite excluding the educated with all its implications for good government of such a lopsided state of affairs. A recent poll shows 81% of Haley's 250,000 votes in the Republican primary would not vote for the former president. Haley won moderates by 61% to 31%. Trump won those without a college degree by 82% to 13% for Haley. Trump support huge in rural areas, Haley's in the suburbs.This shows how different this Republican party is from that even as recent as 2015. In fact Gallup has found that in 1999 the Democratic party was a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated and in 2024 the Republican party is a plus 14 percentage points for non college educated. Among postgraduate educated the gap was 8 percentage points in 1999 and now has widened to where Democrats have 60% to Republicans 21%. ...

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U.S. president Trump is to announce U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Paris climate change agreement. The process of withdrawing is one that takes 4 years to complete, putting off a final decision till after the presidential election of 2020.

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At its core what Peter Baker of the NYT calls a question that settles the future of American democracy-Mr. Trump's indictment for efforts to reverse 2020 election result- is a question of culture, of American culture and education having deteriorated in profound and unthinkable ways. Peter Baker who has covered 5 American presidents writes in the NYT that the fourth indictment gets to the heart of the matter, which will define the future of American democracy. This indictment asks whether a sitting president can spread lies to hold on to power when the election shows voters have rejected him. The indictment says that Mr. Trump "knew that his claims were false," yet he "made them anyway to create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger and erode public faith in the administration of the election."  Baker also points out that one third of the electorate still believes this to be true as a result of the claims Trump made. And 75% of the Republicans in NYT-Siena poll think Mr. Trump was simply acting in good faith to question election results in some states and it was nothing more than pursuing his legitimate legal options. This is about 40% of the American electorate. How is this possible unless the education and culture of the country has been allowed by successive failed administrations to deteriorate to an extent never before seen in this way since the country's independence in 1776. Even recent reports that two thirds of America's fourth graders fail basic reading comprehension tests have not jolted the nation out of its tech based glorification of a failing culture and education. ...

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William Burns is president Biden's CIA chief. He has spent 33 years in the State Department and this experience is being used by the Biden administration as Burns is sent on key missions to the Middle East. He was in touch with Putin before the invasion of Ukraine. He made 16 overseas trips since taking up the job in March 2021 with missions to Kabul to talk to Taliban and to UAE to meet leaders. He is seen here in this WSJ report as someone who can take up making conversations with people Mr. Biden isn't ready to talk to or preparing the way for future conversations as in the Middle East. Mr. Pompeo took that role under Mr. Trump.

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This analysis in The Guardian says US president Biden is reversing 3 decades of policy since president Reagan that looked with skepticism at government intervention in the economy. The $1.9 trillion aid package Biden has pushed through Congress is a big game changer in the way government operates to help rebuild America after the pandemic. The 2009 response by the government under president Obama was done without conviction that the government response was the best way to help the economy. By 2016 voters turned to a Republican, Mr. Trump, to help working class voters with a USA first policy, after decades of presidents from both parties Republican and Democrat failed to protect American interests in manufacturing, jobs and incomes.  US president Biden is continuing Trump's policies to protect working class Americans. And bringing new conviction that government not only has a positive role, but has an essential and vital role to play in protecting workers and households struggling to make ends meet. President Reagan had introduced such a deep skepticism of government, that it took so long for people to remember FDR and the role of government before the second world war and afterwards under the Truman administration.  What changed? The health care crisis exposed the weak areas in the governance and policy mindset in America. China had advanced mainly through strong government role of the Communist Party  in steering the economy and business to gain competitive advantage. The health crisis from the pandemic further devastated America's lower middle and working class following the banking and financial sector mismanagement by 2009. The pharmaceutical and health care sector similar to other sectors had shipped manufacturing overseas. In 2021 there is a deep sense that theories don't work, one has to act based on the needs and the situation the country is facing. The way competitor nations such as China are building new infrastructure, gaining manufacturing advantage, dominating key sectors and industries, and creating jobs, requires America to respond. In this situation posing the threat America faces as well as the social dislocation of decades of misguided policies, the US government is the only one capable and having the resources and capacity to respond.  ...

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Biden as president for 2024 and the matter of age is the subject of this report in WSJ. For too long the press has looked at president Biden's age as drawback ignoring his vast experience, and not Trump's only 3 years younger with poor food and exercise habits and overweight, as pointed out by Duke University Prof. Frank Bruni in the NYT. Here the WSJ at last shows that half of Americans born in 1942 are alive, with many of them about 650,000 working, 18% more than a decade earlier, according to Census Bureau. The saying is that 80 years is the new 60, because of advances in medicine, given healthy habits and exercise. 

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Amy Coney Barrett and Barbara Lagoa are two judges Mr. Trump is considering for appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court to replace Justice Ginsburg, as he proceeds to nominate a Justice "without delay." 

Barrett is a Judge who has served for 2 years on the 7th Circuit Court of Appeals. She is a devout Roman Catholic and a legal scholar from Notre Dame University in Indiana. Lagoa is a judge on the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals and the first Latina on the Florida Supreme Court. Trump's nominee is likely to be confirmed quickly by the Senate as Republicans have 53 members in the Senate from a total of 100 members. Democrats want the nomination to be done after a president is elected in January 2021.

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The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

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Donald Trump is acquitted in the second impeachment trial with a vote in the Senate of 53 in favor to 47 against. A two thirds majority is required to impeach a president. Senators Burr of North Carolina and Cassidy of Louisiana were Republicans who joined the expected ones to vote for impeachment- the Republicans Mitt Romney of Utah, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Ben Sasse of Nebraska, Susan Collins of Maine, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. The Republican defense lawyer insisted that Trump's speech to his supporters was not an intention to incite them on the day of the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021 but an expression of his rights to free speech guaranteed under the U.S. Constitution First Amendment. He made the point that the prosecution lawyers had selectively focused attention on the words "fight like hell" and taken them out of the entire context in which they were made, ignoring key parts of Mr. Trump's speech. The defense argued that the president had already left office and this made an impeachment unconstitutional. Seventy five million voters voted for Mr. Trump and he cited this as the most number of votes won by a sitting president. President Biden is shifting his attention to the president's agenda and needs Republican support to pass key legislation including financial help to households, unemployed, and business to recover from the pandemic. The U.S. health effort behind the vaccination drive and seeing the struggle in Europe to access key medical supplies of vaccine is also leading to new efforts to move beyond the rhetoric to the hard work ahead with support of all parties. As part of this the trial once it reached the Senate was quickly resolved in about 5 days. The defense used only a small fraction of the time allotted with bipartisan effort to not let the trial drag on, bipartisan effort to putting some statements simply on the record and not calling witnesses.   ...

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Hamburg is the key city in Germany's trade with China. About half of $200 billion in trade between Germany and China passes through the port of Hamburg. The South China Morning Post looks at the dilemma in Hamburg over relations with China in the post Merkel era. Merkel maintained strong and close ties with China signing an agreement with China her last year in office. This was when Mr. Trump was US president. Since then president Biden has changed US policy towards Europe. The South China Morning Post points out that The Greens and the FDP key partners of Scholz in a new coalition government, are critical of Merkel's policy towards China in its overall relationship with the US and the rest of the world. Scholz was mayor of Hamburg, and a partner in Merkel's coalition government in which he was vice chancellor. Scholz has talked very little on what the new German policy would be. China seeks to maintain its economic ties in the next few years with Germany while reducing its dependence on other countries under Xi Jinping's new vision for China that seeks to depend less on trade and real estate for its economy and growth. Yet the pace of change has accelerated during the pandemic with a new global supply chain emerging from the chaotic years of 2020-2021. US policy under president Biden is similar to policies under Franklin Roosevelt in the 1930's during the economic and political crises, and look to be setting a new path to the future for the rest of the world. ...

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With stricter border control asylum seekers have dropped to 3500 a day at the US border with Mexico and the new government of Mexico under Caludia Sheinbaum is likely to cooperate with Biden to take back people of other nationalities. President Biden is about to pass an executive order that effectively closes the border with Mexico. Once daily crossings reach 2500 the border will be closed. The legal basis of the action is Immigration and Nationality Act clause 212F which says the president can take this action when he sees that "the entry of aliens or any class of aliens to the United States would be detrimental." This lowers the threshold from 4000 in the Senate bill negotiated by the president with Republican Senator Lankford to 2500 daily crossings. Mr. Trump had the Republican Speaker of the House not bring the Senate bill to a vote in the House. At the time Republicans in Congress said Biden should use his executive authority to do this and lower the threshold. The former president Trump also issued this kind of executive order in 2018 which was blocked in a federal court on grounds of humanitarian protection no matter how immigrants entered the country. This time there is a sense that the Congress, the president and public opinion supports this action and the president's authority. Mexican president Sheinbaum's support will also ease its implementation in 2024 and cut down border crossings from asylum seekers to lows below 2500 till a new Senate bill is taken up and passed with bipartisan support that exists in US Congress. ...

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U.S. president Trump announces withdrawal from the Paris climate change accords, saying the U.S. will consider re-entering the agreement  or coming up with a new deal. He said "I was elected to represent Pittsburgh, not Paris." Trump said he was concerned about the environment, and avoided saying climate change scientific evidence was not correct. He based his concerns on the idea that China and India were getting an unfair financial advantage over the U.S. The U.S. had pledged under the Paris accords to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 28% from 2005 levels by 2025. The WSJ's Stokols and Ballhaus point out that president Trump had the option because of the nonbinding agreements committing nations to a broader goal of reducing emissions to combat temperature change of of 3.6 degrees F, to have modified emissions targets and still remained in the Paris accords. For Trump the motivation may have rested more on politics to shore up support in the Republican party which has largely opposed climate change targets.  ...

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India's lunar probe released from the orbiter circling the moon is diverted from its expected path in the last 20 minutes before a landing on the lunar surface. As it reached 2.1 kilometers from the moon's surface communication with the ISRO satellite center in Bengaluru was lost. Landing on the moon is a difficult task because it lacks atmosphere, the distance preventing landing control in real time, and landers depending on thrusters to set down at the lowest speed in the right place away from craters and rocks. As a result a lander module is programmed to scan the surface and make the landing on its own. A similar Israeli mission recently failed for the same reasons. China landed a rover on the far side of the moon in January, and plans a Mars mission in 2020. The plans to build a space station orbiting the moon in 2023, and make a moon landing that year, land a person on Mars in 2033. President Trump has accelerated the space program after it was stalled under the administrations of Bush and Obama. ...

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By large margins voters have favorable opinions of Harris and Walz. For 52% of the WSJ survey Harris has the right temperament to be president, for Trump this was 42%. 40% of voter sample have unfavorable views of Walz compared to 50% for Vance. 82% of the voter sample say they know enough information about Harris to make a firm opinion. Even though media presents it as people not so familiar with Harris. A big difference is seen in views about Project 2025- only 9% have favorable views of Project 2025 that would terminate civil servants, restrict abortion access, and end the Department of Education. 57% have unfavorable views of Project 2025, 53% very unfavorable views.

These are general trends. Harris is changing perceptions on her handling of the economy and cost of living by outlining her plans for specific action on housing, child care and food costs.

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For the approaching US midterm elections president Biden seeks to draw a sharp contrast with Republican Senator Rick Scott's Plan which he says would worsen inflation and increase taxes on working class families. Mr. Scott's plan is for sunset on all federal legislation and president Biden says this would include Medicare and Social Security. Mr. Scott also wants all Americans to pay some income tax to have skin in the game. At this time about half of all Americans pay no taxes says Mr. Scott. Former US president Trump continues to lead the Republican party in 2022  yet he faces a very different Democratic party under president Biden. Mr. Biden's focus is on his $2 trillion plan for Workers and Families, rebuilding American manufacturing and renewing supply chains, unlike Hillary Clinton whose lacked such a focus. Leading to Mr. Trump's appeal with working class families and disdain for traditional Republican policies that secured him the presidency in 2018 by defeating Hillary Clinton. The changes with president Biden's focus on workers and families are happening also in the European Union. Scholz and the Greens in Germany, Macron in France with potentially Melenchon as prime minister, and similar changes in Denmark and other EU countries suggest that there is a renewed focus on infrastructure, rebuilding manufacturing and supply chain renewal, rebuilding incomes and lives of workers and families, in Europe and the US. ...