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Lower gas prices lower inflation in the US to 2.4%. Unemployment with boost in healthcare sector and 130,000 jobs in January 2026 is at 4.3%.

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The Indian government imposes a 40% export tax on onions. Tomato pries have increased fivefold and onion prices have surged with drought in some areas and floods damaging crops. Uneven rainfall is affecting grain supplies also and the Indian government is keeping a close watch on this. Prime minister Modi also stated this in his Independence Day speech.

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Oil prices and the US war with Iran -Straits of Hormuz how much of it remains open, European supplies, and drop in production in Gulf region, how these risks are managed will have an impact on inflation. Inflation could end up at 2.9% instead of 2% says Greg Ip. Gep Ip does not take into acocunt new flexible oil policy under which India gets a waiver to buy oil supplies from Russia, China sources more of its supplies from Russia to make up for the supplies lost from the Middle East. Russia steps in for a temporary period to keep oil prices lower. US ramps up Venezuelan and its own oil production to meet the needs of other countries such as Japan and S. Korea, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Europe. Conservation measures are enacted to reduce oil use for the same level of GDP as taken in Japan and Germany.

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Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Governor sees an economy that will have zero growth in the second half and he does not seee price pressures abating. He says the odds are even that inflation turns out to be a one-off event or becomes persistent, but his sense is that it will be persistent. Fisher has voted for rate increase at Fed meetings. For him the key issue is whether the increase in food and energy prices will be transient or persist, and his concern has been that expectations of future price increases will become embedded in the economy.

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This report in DW.com presents a situation where supply of oil runs out as demand way exceeds supply as shale oils in US are depleted, and no new reserves are found. A story in WSJ last week reports that the salty water from shale oil extraction is injected back into reservoirs at a rate that creates serious problems in the Permian Basian of the US including East Texas. The IEA forecast in 2026 shows about 97 million b/d of production and demand slightly exceeding this in both 2030 and 2050 which would suggest defossilization has not taken place. Yet the US pullout from defossilization under DJT is sure to be reversed by future governments in as short as 3 years, and the current DJT policy is simply a response to the cost of living concerns of the majority of Americans. The scenario that fossil fuels will be required forever is promoted by the oil companies and by OPEC+ including Russia. But this situation will reverse as the cost of living crisis and the low wages and incomes, loss of factory jobs, low savings, health care inflation, is tackled under the DJT administration and the US economy becomes stronger with lower inflation.  This scenario of  steady oil demand can be reversed if China and India and Europe push ahead with renewable energy and technological change as is happening today, and will not be seriously impacted when the US joins the battle with its renewable energy push in 2028. This is not just an optimistic scenario, it is a balanced one as private industry in the US will sense this and move ahead with development of new technologies for renewable energy so as not to fall behind and to pioneer on their own. That is the history of innovation in the US for the last 100 years and will not change. ...

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The jobless rate of 7.1% in Germany in April 2011, is down from 7.8% in the prior year. In the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, where BMW and Daimler are located, the unemployment rate is down to 4% in April. Jurg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, says this could lead to higher inflation. Inflation went up to an annual rate of 2.6% in April. The ECB raised the official interest rate to 1.25% in April, but Kramer says the rate appropriate for Germany is more like 3%. The euro is rising with expectations that the ECB will raise rates further. The euro was at $1.49 on April 28, 2011. Kramer also cites some factors that could slow inflation and wage increases in Germany- most union wage contracts continue till 2012, and the change that allows people from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic to be easily hired.