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Tensions on the India China border as India builds roads and infrastructure in the mountainous Himalayan area close to the border in Ladakh to match the Chinese buildup of roads in the region over the last decade. India has also built up its troop presence in the region to match China's troop presence along the border in Ladakh.

India has supported a call from Australia for an investigation into the early origins of the coronavirus. The call was supported by many countries around the world and by the U.S., Japan and France. The 350,000 deaths from coronavirus and the 5.5 millions confirmed cases, the economic damage, most of them in western nations in North America and Europe, have  led to growing tensions between China and the rest of the world. 

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French president Macron meets president Putin of Russia for a deescalation of tensions on NATO and Ukraine. Macron for the first time offers an approach that he calls the "Finlandization" of Ukraine. Finland maintained its independence as a neutral country in tensions between US and Russia.  President Biden says the US and Germany are united in their approach, and Nordstream 2 pipeline just completed to supply Germany with Russian gas will be shut down if Russia invades Ukraine. German chancellor Olaf Scholz says little during the crisis and is described as not "audible." Germany has fought two world wars with Russia and seeks a solution that recognizes Russian concerns about NATO yet one that is consistent with the alliance it has with America and concerns of its Polish and Baltic neighbors such as Finland, Sweden, and Lithuania. Meetings are planned for Olaf Scholz of Germany with president Putin of Russia in coming weeks, and with Ukraine in Kiev. ...

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Mr. Moon Jae-in, South Korea's leader, emerges from this week of direct talks between president Trum and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, with many of his goals accomplished. During most of 2018 with threats and missile tests from the North relations with the U.S. had worsened, South Korea was left out in many developments relating to the Korean peninsula, and tensions had risen. After this weeks diplomacy in Singapore, the South Korean leader has reduced tensions, achieved the goal of direct talks between the U.S. and North Korea, and reduced tensions. Moon-Jae-in now has poplarity of 79% according to Gallup South Korea, and won in local elections. Even the cancellation of military exercizes by president Trump after the Kim meeting achieves a long standing goal of reducing tensions by moderating the exercizes- which are seen by North Korea as a threat. A Gallup poll shows 66% of South Koreans supporting the Kim- Trump talks. Conservatives in South Korea are still skeptical that this can last given past experience with North Korea. The consensus is still that reduction of tensions and dialogue is still the best way to resolve the disputes, with the added pressure of sanctions with China's active participation to make the effort work. ...

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National security scrutiny increases for China's telecom company ZTE. These concerns led to Washington blocking a takeover of Qualcomm by Singapore's Broadcom Ltd. This is playing out in the middle of economic tensions between the U.S. and China over trade and intellectual property issues.

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A video view of the damaged oil facilities of Aramco in Saudi Arabia. A proxy war waged between Saudis and Iran with Houthi rebels in Yemen have worsened the situation in the Straits of Hormuz. Tensions were high, an attack on oil facilities was not expected. About half of Saudi oil production was put out of use in the attack by low flying missiles that evaded radar defenses. Saudis plan to meet oil export commitments by importing oil. President Trump imposed sanctions on the Iranian central bank, and at the same time said he would meet with Iran's president Rouhani for talks if arranged.  The European Union called for talks to renegotiate the Iran nuclear deal considering all issues nuclear, oil, and political issues in the region. The effect of Trump administration sanctions on Iran's economy have led to worsening relations. Japan, South Korea, India and China are affected by the U.S. effort to limit imports of Iranian oil. As tensions rose Japan with limited reserves made efforts to reduce tensions and bring the parties together. Mr. Trump fired his National Security Adviser in an effort to open up ideas for a renegotiation of the Iran nuclear deal on a comprehensive basis including oil and political issues in the region. ...

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Peggy Noonan, spokeswoman for president Reagan, writes in the WSJ during a period of increased tensions in Hong Kong, in world trade, and in Britain. She cautions that moderation is a not fully understood or appreciated virtue. Noonan reflects conservative opinion in the U.S.

She says first China pushed too far resulting in earlier Hong Kong umbrella protests followed by today's protests.

Now that Carrie Lam and Beijing have backed down and withdrawn the extradition bill, the protests having made the statement, would continuing unrest and pushing Beijing too far be in their interests. Would it be in worldwide interests if that would worsen tensions from trade frictions, reducing levels of trust. 

This also applies to Mr. Johnson and Mr. Cummings in Britain's minority government. Having lost their majority are they pushing too far asks Noonan. 

 

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Age discrimination is a problem in France more than in Germany or other countries in Europe. A person over 55 is half as likely as younger people to be hired by companies. This makes raising the pension age from 62 to 64 much harder for the government. In the US people are working for much longer.

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Twenty years after Japanese prime minister Koizumi visited Pyongyang in 2004, Japan's PM Kishida plans to talk to North Korean leader Kim. Koizumi had talks with Kim's father in 2004. The effort is to reduce tensions in the region with elections approaching in Japan, India, and the US in 2024, and to bolster the sense that Japan can manage its role in the region. The Europeans are doing the same as the French and the British are taking a bigger role in Europe during Ukraine conflict. After the Gaza conflict, the Houthis in Red Sea maritime channels, there is a sense that reducing tensions proactively is a better approach rather than wait for things to take their own course in directions that are not good for the world, or taking rigid ideological or other motivated positions that serve no constructive purpose and exacerbate tensions. Gandhiji used to say "tit for tat makes the whole world blind." It is not idealistic to say that but very practical and useful because if you do that you end up with situations where you lose leverage and ability to take positive action and come up with better outcomes, than if you let some unforeseen event or some events by other actors without proper motives to intervene to your serious and the world's detriment. ...

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WSJ covers how trade US China trade tensions affect supplies of rare earths, chips and pharmaceutical ingredients to US and Europe from China.

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The 23rd Winter Olympics open in Pyeongchang, South Korea with 92 countries participating.For the first time the North and South Korean delegations marched under one flag. This is the result of policies pursued on the Korean peninsula by the North and South Korean governments to reduce tensions that increased the dangers of a conflict following repeated North Korean nuclear tests. The U.S. has responded with tougher sanctions coordinated with China. South Korea's president, Moon Jae-in sees this as an opportunity to engage North Korea in the direction of reduction of tensions, a policy he planned during his election campaign but cut short by worsening U.S. relations with North Korea.

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The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 begins to unravel as the European Union takes the first step towards the reimposing of sanctions. Britain, France and Germany triggered a dispute settlement mehanism in the agreement which can result in the United Nations reimposing international sanction on Iran's economy, banks, and top officials within 2 months. This follows Iran's resumption of nuclear activities banned under the agreement. Earlier the U.S. withdrew from the agreement and the European Union tried to save the agreement. Recent tensions and the U.S. insistence on the renegotiating for a new agreement have led to this collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.

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French president Macron is seen as aloof from voter concerns about the rising cost of living. Visiting a farmer in the Burgundy region Marie Le Pen said prices of food and vegetables have gone up 25% over 5 years since Macron became president.  To win over supporters from working class communities in north and northeast who have voted for Jean Luc-Melenchon, a former Socialist candidate, Macron visited Denian, a town in the north of France.  Melenchon's France Unbowed party got about 21.95 % of the vote compared to Le Pen's 23.15%. Getting working class voters to support Macron who had 27.84% of the vote is now crucial for Macron. Denian has an unemployment rate of 36%. Macron told voters the best way to tackle poverty is to bring down the unemployment rate which is now 7.4%.  Many of these communities in the north, northeast, and in the southeast have suffered from the two decade shift of manufacturing to China, creating a situation similar to that in the midwest of the US and posing a challenge for established parties. The Republicains of De Gaulle and the Socialists of Mitterand, the established parties did badly in the election, each getting less than 5%of the vote. It is this problem that Macron has to address to get the votes of working class voters in France. Challenging the notion that he has been aloof from this problem and the problem of cost of living for young and for pensioners Macron says he will listen, learn and act, and he is "not afraid to go into battle in the most difficult areas." On this first day of campaigning for the second round he spent 2 hours talking to people in Denian. Angry voters told him he did not care for pensioners. In his response Macron said he will increase the minimum pension from 10500 euros to 13200 euros a year. A pension reform plan for increasing the retirement age for pensions to 65 from 62 will now be put to a referendum so that voters could reject it if they chose to. Macron also responded to the sentiment that his administration was more concerned about the rich by proposing that firms paying dividends to shareholders will be required to give one off bonuses of 6000 euros to all employees earning less than 46,000 euros a year.  On his opponent Marie Le Pen's plan to cut VAT tax on gasoline to 5% from 20%, Macron told voters that this was counterfeit money, asking "can anyone really say there will be no VAT for gasoline imported from the rest of the world?" ...

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Why the Straits of Hormuz are a critical path in the seas near Iran and Saudi Arabia through which much of the world's oil supplies flow. With the U.S. gaining oil sufficiency the straits of Hormuz oil supply lanes in the seas are critical to countries such as China, Japan and India which lack enough internal supplies of oil. Japan's prime minister mediated between the U.S. and Iran to keep the oil supplies lanes open and free of the conflicts and rivalry that have taken place in the region. After initially saying Iran was responsible for some tankers that caught fire, president Trump reversed himself saying that it was unintentional. The U.S. maintains oil sanctions on Iran but is careful not to worsen tensions further, and Iran suffering from the sanctions pursues a policy of trying to wait out the U.S. sanctions.

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The largest holder of America's debt is not China. It is Japan with holdings by banks, insurers and pension funds of $1.1 trillion of US debt. This is important with the growing borrowing of the US government to fund infrastructure and clean energy, services. This investment is growing after slowing during the pandemic. Much of it is done not for earnings gains but with hedging in financial markets to reduce exchange rate risk.

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Edward Johnson and daughter Abby Johnson- Fidelity Investments succession turmoil and Abby Johnson emerging as CEO is covered in a new book- House of Fidelity by Justin Baer, Deputy Markets Editor WSJ. CEO Edward Johnson (Ned) failed to come up with a succession plan and executives under him were planning to sell the company to Chase or another bank. Ned had talked to Chase's Dimon in 2005 and said he was not interested in selling the company founded by his father. Yet this is what executives under Ned, Reynolds had in mind, who did not have confidence in Abby Johnson's leadership. Fidelity Investments has recovered from poor performance in that period and manages the pension plans of employers in the US, being the largest in this business. In 2026 Fidelity manages life savings of 20% of American adults and 50% of these customers signed up in last 5 years, says WSJ. After a period in her performance in the mutual funds business which was not great Abby was listed for demotion by executives under her father, who would sent her to run the philanthropy part of the business. It shows how awoman now 64 years struggled through this period and took the bold step of defying her father through control of 41% of the stock of the company to gain control of the company- a step that led to her father relenting and letting Abby run the company. It is a tale of how in such situations even the most favored can be put at a disadvantage by perceptions - in this case by Reynolds of Abby's leadership and ability- and need to act swiftly and decisively after impressions have been formed that lead to an outcome that doesn't need to occur. Her father Ned even though he in his younger period was a good stock picker, failed in two ways. By not planning a clear succession and lacking confidence in his daughter to overcome temporary obstacles. ...

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Foxconn Technology Group, largest assembler of iPhones, plans to reduce its dependence on Chinaby building plants in India. Foxconn head, Terry Gou, plant to visit India after next month. The continued trade tensions between U.S. and China are leading to many companies looking at diversifying their supply chains away from China.Manufacturing high end phones in India would help Apple get around the 20% tariff on imported phones because Apple is losing market share with its high prices. Foxconn already makes phones in India for Xiaomi. Foxconn is also looking at Vietnam.

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Demand for political risk insurance in China increased from 25% in 2019 to 68% in 2023, according to insurance broker WTW. Out of 50 insurers only 5 are offering political insurance for China and only for $50 million when most companies needing this insurance are large companies. The Ukraine war and China-US tensions over Taiwan are making it difficult for American or European companies to do business in China.

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With Chinese overproduction of  electric vehicles and solar energy panels China needs the EU and US market for its economy. Now that it is more dependent on manufacturing for jobs and the economy, as its construction industry is in decline. The Biden administration by not adding new tariffs yet investing in production at home provides China and the US with a win-win relationship, that China seeks to maintain. This overrides regional tensions for the vital interests of the US and China to compete on a level playing field.

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The deep deterioration in U.S. China relations as the U.S. sees itself in a disadvantage in trade with China and the Trump administration imposes tariffs, calls for changing existing supply chains and trade to safeguard U.S. interests. The lack of transparency from China about the coronavirus and the underreporting that led to the U.S. and Europe not taking the threat seriously enough or taking defensive steps is also seen as a part of the deeper problem as the U.S. and Europe bear the brunt of the coronavirus in terms of deaths and cases.  This presents a deeper problem than the trade issue by itself as the U.S. had a trade issue with Japan which was later resolved. The way the Trump administration sees itself as the only protector of U.S. interests in trade, security and international cooperation creates a new level of tensions. Other countries such as Australia, India, Japan, and countries in South East Asia are seen as having similar concerns as supply chains are being remade to reflect the new trading conditions and economic structures. ...

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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Retail sales in China dropped sharply. Retail sales dropped from double digit increases for most of 2014-2017 to single digits in 2018- sales dropping to 8.1%. Government restrictions to prevent a housing bubble restrained housing sales, and policies to control corporate debt limited growth. Higher inflation for food and housing, have led to asharp pullback in growth of consumer spending.  Trade tensions with the U.S. have hurt consumer sentiment. The feeling that China's growth would stabilize because of its connections to the world economy is fading as consumers see persistent trade tensions with the U.S. including tariffs of upto 60% in tit for tat actions as hurting China's prospects.  The GDP growth is expected to be about 6.5% for 2018 according to government estimates, which experts say is actually much less or even half that as exporters retrench in the face of slack demand in China and lower sales to the U.S.  Rail and other infrastructure projects that were considered unsuitable are now being given approval in efforts to boost the economy. More tax cuts and expanded deficit spending are policies likely to be followed.  At foreign companies no overtime, and job cuts are commonplace especially in the auto industry. ...