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With the strong jobs growth report in September the US Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is expected to increase interest rates by 0.75% at its meeting on Nov. 1-2. That will be the fourth interest rate increase in 4 consecutive meetings of the Fed. It is designed to tackle inflation yet it also reverses the period of low interest rates for savers that extended from 2000 to 2020. This period covered two crises one created by irresponsible behaviour of banks in the financial crisis of 2000 and the second a natural health disaster from the pandemic when interest rates were brought down to zero as a policy response. During that period savers who suffered decline in savings with little interest income and lower income groups were hit by both the financial crises, employment gaps that hurt income and savings, and the shift of jobs overseas as jobs were shifted to China and American manufacturing declined. Economic policy was determined in that period by economists who failed to grasp the dangers to American manufacturing, to American communities with loss of jobs from offshoring, rising inequality that fragmented society.   This has changed under the Fed run by Mr. Powell first appointed by Mr. Trump and now renominated by Mr. Trump, who is not an economist and brings a very different mindset to central banking, going with common sense about what works for average Americans. a sense of humility, and down to earth about American workers and American manufacturing and its place in America. ...

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Prodigous investments in AI data centers is crowding out investment in essential infrastructure that would cut the cost of living in the US. Such as investment in pharmaceuticals in the US, investment in automobiles and rare earth processing, in housing and schools would reduce cost of living by bringing down prices and provide huge human returns for every dollar spent in addition to larger profits over a long period. Shown here is the AI data center for Microsoft in Atlanta. Microsoft has invested $34 billion the first fiscal quarter of 2025 alone, with similar investments by Amazon, Tesla, Google, and others for $400 billion capital allocation in 2026. Investments are also being crowded out in the replacing of the aging infrastructure of the US  of roads, rail, subways systems, transport systems, bridges, airports and ports. Some of these investments such as in ports and logistics are needed to make America a manufacturing and exporting nation. Economists loved to talk about crowding out of investment by the private sector when the government spending was significantly higher as during and after World War II. Today there is little talk about the massive misallocation of capital in the US economy. Where public infrastructure is ravaged by time and mismanagement as in New York political trends are calling for free public transport  and supported grocery stores in NYC, when the root cause the overall picture of the Nation's spending in rebuilding America is ignored or unaddressed, which would get to the root cause of the cost of living and quality of life issues that concern all the people of this Nation. ...

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Let sleeping tariffs lie is the approach of S. Korea, Taiwan, Japan, China, India, European Union, Germany, UK-  expect all trade agreements with the US to remain in place after Supreme Court decision as no country wants to go through the intensely difficult process of renegotiating on tariffs. It is also the case that DJT can replace these same tariffs using other tools and different legislation passed by Congress to stop unfair trading practices by other nations. The president is also appealing to the public, some of the tariffs are about fentanyl flows into the US, the unfair trade practices and subsidies were a problem for the Biden administration and rebuilding manufacturing was the goal of both DJT and Biden, and will be for future administrations.  When the media NYT, Washington Post respond they are following the editorial line taken that opposes the DJT administration on all issues, when WSJ respond it takes the textbook approach of economists and finance people that free markets are best without considering the real life issues. This is why the president said at his press conference after the Supreme Court decision that 22 Nobel Prize economists had said the economy could not be turned around for growth and low inflation in 1 year, and were proved wrong after the experience of 2025 with low inflation at 2.8%, low unemployment 4.3%, and growth of 2.2% in real GDP (with strong growth in quarters 2&3 of 3.8% and 4.4%). Expect all tariffs to be in place under other legislation to be in place in coming months. ...

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With a redrawing of the tech map and where the jobs are tech jobs shift to mainstream manufacturing, health, banking and retail, says this report in the NYT. These companies invest steadily in tech jobs but did not go into manic hiring sprees in the way Amazon or Alphabet once did. Overall employment in tech occupations increased to 6.39 million in November 2022, a 12% increase over the prior year. Chase, Amex, Nike, Wal-Mart and General Motors offer more stability for tech workers. Overall US tech workers increased from about 3 million workers in 2000 to over double that in 2022. Unemployment is at 2% for tech workers compared to 3.7% for workers overall. The problems at Alphabet and Amazon and layoffs are making it easier for mainstream retail and banking companies to hire tech workers. Chase Bank alone has over 50,000 tech workers.

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Chase bank investments in strategic companies of the US with the US government in a Jamie Dimon effort October 2025. Chase Bank CEO Jamie Dimon says- “It has become painfully clear that the United States has allowed itself to become too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products and manufacturing—all of which are essential for our national security." 

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Tariffs in the US for European goods are low, only 2.5%, compared to 10% with other countries, so low that free trade doesn't mean much of anyhting these days. Add to this the angst of free trade and globalization creating marginalized communities that depended on manufacturing in the heydays of the period after World War II for three decades till the eighties. Politicians and people in the US worry about other things. Jake Sullivan, NSA adviser at the White House says- "The project of the 202's and 2030's is different from the project of the 1990's. The US has a different set of fundamental priorities than simply bringing down tariffs."

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Wessel describes the changes in American manufacturing as it goes through some of the same changes that happened in Germany in the years after reunification. With high unemployment German manufacturing companies worked with unions and the government for wage restraint over the last decade, resulting in wages barely keeping up with inflation. The increase in productivity and wage restraint helped Germany become more competitive with factories in Asia and Eastern Europe. Wages are now increasing with larger wage increase negotiated by the unions in Germany, as skilled labor is becoming scarce. In the U.S. Labor Department figures show an increase in output per hour in American manufacturing of 13% in the last 5 years and 21% in the five years before that. Typical of the wage changes in manufacturing- American Axle & Manufacturing plant in Three Rivers, Michigan hires assembly workers at $10 per hour, with older "legacy workers" making $18 per hour. General Electric brought back manufacturing work from Mexico paying workers $13 per hour for new hires, compared to to $21- $23 in prior years. At GM, Ford and Chrysler workers make $16-$19 per hour in base pay compared to older workers with legacy rates of $29-$33. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows earnings for production workers in manufacturing averaging $19.15 per hour in April, which is where they were in 2000 adjusted for inflation. The impact of this large increase in productivity with new machinery and production methods, and the wage reductions in manufacturing, is a return of offshored jobs. Wages increased in China and Mexico in the last decade. After a 35% decrease in the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. from 1998-2010, the number of jobs has increased by 4.3% to 11.9 million in April 2012, according to the Labor Department....

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In Lithium ion batteries and key pharmaceutical ingredients, special semiconductors China is able to use the concentration of manufacturing capacity anc dependence on China to prevent the US and EU negotiating a way to recover lost supply chains. Supply chains that were carelessly turned over to China, a developing country at that time, by business executives of the US and EU in the 1990-2020 period who lacked vision and foresight. China's policy is to increase the dependence of US and EU, to tighten this dependence to achieve its goals. XI Jinping says WSJ wrote in a 2020 essay- that he wasn't for weaponizing it but that China must “tighten the dependence of international industrial chains on our country” so that it would be a way to respond and create negotiating room for continued access to technologies and markets in the US and EU were the US and EU to make efforts to recover the supply chains they had inadvertently and carelessly turned over to China. This action by US and EU business executives should be considered one of the major and ignominous failures of American and European business management of that period 1990-2020 which has made it difficult to even make the initial effort to recover these lost supply chains. As with the banks in the 2009 financial crisis that generation of management continues to operate as if nothing has happened.  ...

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Financial expert Guy LeBas- questions bond investors need to think about are whether $3 trillion in AI investments are societally productive, economically and financially productive. This WSJ podcast is a discussion on the effects in the bond market of financing by AI. LeBas says the corporate bond market is dominated by banks in 2025. AI financing makes up 7% of the corporate bond market in 2025 and is likely to double to 15% with the 5 Tech companies issuing corporate bonds. He says the question is what effect this will have on the economy, on society, and the larger question is what effect it will have on the Nation's priorities- for tackling crumbling infrastructure, investing in American manufacturing shriveled after 3 decades of neglect and unfair trading practices of trading partners, tackling climate change, needed investment in pharmaceutical manufacturing in the US, in education and childcare.

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Any Asian conflict involving China would in a few months destroy Apple's value, CEO's would change quickly, and Apple policies change to shift entire production to India and the US in a rapid shift. Tim Cook would be seen as having gambled against America's interests, unresponsive and failing after repeated warnings.  Apple's goal of sourcing from India by 2027 a mere 26% of its iphones, means that a decade after USTR Lighthizer and DJT started the task of reshoring manufacturing to US and allies in 2016, the No. 1 outshoring company would still be making 75% of its dollar value iphones in China. A degree of overconcentration that would make no sense considering that Apple's 75% of manufacturing would be entirely at risk in 2027 after repeated warnings and inaction. The only option for Tim Cook in 2025 is to come up with new goals of shifting a minimum of 50-60% of its dollar value product manufacturing for iphones to India by 2027. . Tim Cook as Apple CEO has done little to prevent the overconcentration of manufacturing in China since 2016. About 10 years after DJT was elected to bring manufacturing back to India or close allies the simple idea of diversification was not implemented. Why? Having set up this system starting in 1998, a system that did not exist before that tiem when Steve Jobs hired Tim Cook with a winning formula to Make in China, a country just emerging from its Communist phase of failed state economy. By 2008 in 10 years the infrastructure was built in a backward largely agricultural economy that was rapidly modernizing under a market economy with state run capitalism under the Communist Party experiment. The Bush Obama 16 years were ones with America not responding to the challenge posed by this new system which could create huge surges in production capacity with focus on key technologies and flood markets. The next decade after 1998-2008 was one of rapid growth of this experiment which combined with design and engineering in the US generated few jobs in manufacturng in the US, but huge profits with huge margins fro a low cost base with a high image and technology innovation product. Lighthizer, Navarro, Jamieson had already sounded the alarm for American manufacturing and loss of jobs in 2016.  America's deindustrialization was becoming a bigger challenge by 2020 so that president Biden continued the policy of reindustrializing. In 2025 China 2025 Plan that was a warning in 2016 is already a reality with China flooding the world in solar panels, and ready to flood the markets overseas with electric cars. Apple may only get a reprieve, this exemption is not the same as the last one. National security is an issue, key technologies need to be protected. There is only one more opportunity to rebuild American manufacturing and keep promises.     ...

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Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is the only Treasury Secretary who also served as the chairperson of the US central bank the Federal Reserve 2014-2018, and the only woman in these roles. Here she says she toured the country in 2022 a year after joining the Biden administration as head of the finance ministry. What she has seen are the early results of president Biden's  two trillion dollar bills, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 and the Science and CHIPS Act 2021, which give manufacturing and new infrastructure building a critical role in a new revitalized America. All across this vast country aging infrastructure is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is changing the landscape. Yellen says the US economy is resilient and growing amidst a global economic slowdown and higher interest rates. The labor market is strong and household balance sheets are healthy, consumer spending robust, says Yellen. It provides the basis for American global economic leadership in the years ahead. ...

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VW brings back the Scout brand to the US adding it to VW and Audi brands. VW will invest $1 billion initially to manufacture the Scout EV vehicles in the US with additional investments after preparing the ground for the manufacturing plant. VW acquired the Scout brand name with its acquisition of Navistar in 2020. Navistar was created in 1985 from the International Harvester Company which went out of business.

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Greg Ip looks at the Chinese economy its strengths and and many weaknesses including debt and declining foreign investment in 2023, as president Xi visits the US this coming week. With a slowing economy, high youth unemployment and excessive debt, China remains a resilient economy because it has strengths in manufacturing. It would take the US the next decade to build up its manufacturing capabilities after neglecting this important field with mistaken policies for three decades under presidents Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Obama and Trump. President Biden is taking steps for this new manufacturing revival to take place.

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Claudia Sheinbaum's father was a biology professor at UNAM, her mother a chemical engineer. She studied physics at UNAM (Universidad Autonomo de Mexico) and did her dissertation for doctoral work comparing energy use of the US and Mexico at Lawrence Livermore Laboratory in Berkeley, California. She returned to the faculty of engineering at UNAM in 1995. In 2000 she was appointed energy minister in the Mexico City government by the city's Mayor Lopez Obrador.  From 2018 to 2023 she was Mayor of Mexico City and a close associate of Lopez Obrador who supported her for president in 2024. Mexico limits presidents to one six year term. This period was overshadowed by the migration crisis with the US, building of the Border Wall by Trump, the negotiation of the new trade agreement with the US and Canada, the pandemic and its impact on the poorer classes in Mexico. Obrador attacked corruption in Mexico that had become entrenched under previous parties to bring good governance. Under Obrador Mexico brought millions out of poverty. Sheinbaum's sweeping election win shows that Obrador is one of the most popular presidents in the world. Mexico has an opportunity to bring tens of millions more into the mainstream economy under Sheinbaum. As a neighbor of the US Mexico stands to benefit from a diversifying supply chain for the US that includes Mexico and India that will boost Mexico's manufacturing, create jobs and increase economic growth. ...

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The dire situation for basic education in the U.S. states during the pandemic in 2020 and what this means for children growing up is the subject of this WSJ report. Early retirements and quarantines have forced some school administrators to have parents, even bus drivers to conduct classrooms with children. Asymptomatic teachers are allowed in classrooms. Public school employment in U.S. in November was down 9% from February lowest since 2000, according to the Bureau of Labor statistics. The shortage is compounded by layoffs of support staff such as teachers' aides and clerical workers, leaving the burden to be taken up by teachers.  More than 40 states in the U.S. report shortfalls in math, science and special education. The worse off states include Arizona, where school districts were not able to hire certified teachers for 78% of 6,145 open positions in August, and one third of the positions are still vacant. This report looks at the situation and the damage as teachers handle larger classes of over 50 children, do online and in person classes simultaneously, deep clean their classrooms, and take turns as crossing guards. The result burnout for teachers, more teachers quit, parents are frustrated and students do not make progress. Much of the capital investment allocation in the U.S. has gone badly wrong with capital chasing a tech industry with the industry reaching saturation and diminishing returns in, in speculative ventures, at the neglect of infrastructure, manufacturing, health and education. A recent WSJ article points to dilapidated or outdated infrastructure as one of the reasons American manufacturing has suffered. ...

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Jeremy Carl is the nominee for Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs (including UN) in Feb. 2026. He is a research fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. His BA is from Yale where he was president of the student union, and his Masters is from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.  From 2004-2005 he was a visiting fellow at the Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi, India.This article says he has been critical of Jewish attitudes yet he comes from a Jewish family and is now a member of the Presbyterian church. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Interior in the first term of DJT. His recent book is on the theme of how the culture and attitude of America was culture an attitude of vast majority of the population from 1600 till 1965 for about 400 years. The Immigration laws of 1965 under JFK/Johnson, he says were not intended to change this, yet a change and relaxation of tight immigration policy has led to the situation similar to what Eisenhower faced in 1954 that led to Operation Wetback- as Mexican immigration surged in the war years by the early 1950's. For 150 years before 1965 the US only opened up for Europeans immigrating to the US. The changes since 1965 coincided with deindustrializationn of the US and the failure of the governing class to do anything about the steady shipping out the nation's manufacturing sector to China. Which is why there is so much anxiety about America's position in the world and a sense of a culture that is being lost- of Robert Frost's poetry set in New Hampshire, of Shakespeare's plays and morals for Western civilization, of the values of Emerson and Thoreau that guided Gandhiji and other Asian leaders. ...

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The Jan 6 Panel of the US Congress puts out its report on the efforts to overturn the election results of the 2020 election that elected Joe Biden as president. Social fracturing from decades of policy that misallocated capital away from education, communities and health, hollowed out American manufacturing, neglected American communities and infrastructure, increased the gaps in income and wealth in society, led to unintended consequences.

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Indian prime minister Modi shown in a meeting together with Biden of the US, Fumio Kishida of Japan and Albanese of Australia at the Izumi Gallery in Tokyo during the announcement of the joint efforts for launching and promoting the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity. The IPEF led by the US will have four pillars of trade and supply chain resiliency, clean energy and climate change action, taxes to promote investment in infrastructure, and good governance. Seven of 10 members of ASEAN have joined including Indonesia. India is a key partner of US and Japan for the new IPEF economic alliance. Prime Minister Modi of India says about IPEF- "India will work together with its IPEF partners to build an inclusive and flexible Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. I believe that resilient supply chains must be based on three pillar foundation of trust, transparency and timeliness, and I am sure that this framework will make these pillars strong and lead to prosperity, peace and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region." Attracting large investments in India and other reliable partners in a new supply chain that shifts out of China are part of the Biden plan working together with Japan and South Korea. Investments directly into the US are also part of the same plan. Gina Raimondo US Commerce Minister says- "I would say, especially as businesses are beginning to increasingly look for alternatives to China, the countries in the Indo-Pacific Framework will be more reliable partners for US businesses." US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says the IPEF is intended to boost US manufacturing. By boosting US manufacturing and technological advancement with investments inside the US that directly benefit American workers and families the IPEF will serve the US and the free world in ways that will shape the coming decades to 2030 and 2040. With investments in the US will come investments in India as a reliable manufacturing partner to replace China by 2030 is envisioned by Jake Sullivan and president Biden. ...

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Small business and farmers are driving a recovery in the Indian economy in the latter half of 2020 after the impact of the pandemic. Rural India with demand from farmers for cars and tractors is also helping build demand. Maruti Suzuki, India's largest auto manufacturer, had sales increase of 10% in rural India vs. 4% overall in the third quarter of 2020. Manufacturing and farm sector are leading the recovery. Transport and hotel, airlines are also seeing an increase in demand. From 2 million in June airline passengers have increased to 5 million in September compared to 12 million before the pandemic. The second generation reforms made by the Modi administration and the many initiatives are expected to boost the potential growth and scale of the Indian economy. Building a strong manufacturing sector and getting foreign investment in that sector is also a critical step to building the economy's growth potential. Working with Taiwanese investment and investment from the U.S. and the European Union is part of this effort. ...

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US economic growth was 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Even though the Fed increased rates at 10 consecutive meetings by 5% since March 2022 to tackle inflation the US economy appears strong. Large investments in the trillions of dollars in US manufacturing and infrastructure, tackling climate change is what is different this time compared to the past 2 decades when bad decisions were made with twin wars in the Arab and Muslim world, and the supply chain was transferred to China, investments were neglected in infrastructure, education and health in public goods, and capital markets allocated money with decreasing advantage to the economy. President Biden was in a unique position after the pandemic to take stock of all these mistakes and move the nation forward in positive directions in a decisive way in scale as well as in spirit and determination. That he has done so is more proof of the resilience of America.

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The US economy is showing a stronger services sector in 2023 as demand for goods slows, manufacturing slows, and there is more spending on travel, leisure and in hospitality sectors. This is shown by recent S&P Global Surveys.

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Mr. Pascal Soriot of Astra Zeneca says his company has signed agreements for production of 2 billion doses of the coronavirus vaccine being developed by Oxford University. He says manufacturing is starting now because "we want it to be as fast as possible." One of the deals is with Serum Institute of India, the other is with Bill Gates of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation for $750 million for CEPI and GAVI organizations which he supports. Mr. Soriot says the licensing agreement with Serum Institute is to supply one billion doses for low and middle income countries, with 400 million doses ready by end of 2020. He says Astra Zeneca is building supply chains across the world and so far has secured manufacturing capacity for 2 billion doses of the vaccine. Mr Soriot tells BBC that manufacturing vaccines on this scale is not an easy thing to do. He says that Astra Zeneca will not make a profit in production of these Oxford University developed vaccines. The U.S. has secured 300 million doses of the Oxford vaccine, and the UK 100 million doses.   ...

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Peter Goodman who covers the consequences in the lives of ordinary people of the industrial changes going on around us, gives this report from Michigan. He shows how today's Michigan, was home to Henry Ford's automobile plants that made it a major part of the industrial revolution in the US after 1910, when Ford's first assembly line manufacturing was set up in Highland Park, Detroit. Industrial growth till 1960 made the US the leading industrial nation in the world. Followed by Japanese imports and auto manufacturing shifting to Asia and Mexico, that led to deindustrialization and neglect in Michigan and the midwestern US.  Key aspects of resurgence today is coming from lessons learned in the period of deindustrialization. From labor and management not working together, from huge pension obligations and costs that had to be overcome, that made existing wage and cost structures uncompetitive with Asian manufacturing. Labor concessions in the last decade have made a rearrangement of cost structure possible, yet along with the financial crisis of 2008 further worsened worker incomes. The first steps of a return for Michigan to its role in the early industrialization of America, the new labor contract negotiated in 2023, the support of president Biden and the government, the investment in the new technology of electric car manufacturing by Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. Goodman shows how the state, federal government, community colleges and other educational institutions training workers and students, and car companies are working together to promote interests of workers and communities. There is uncertainty created about the fewer parts in the electric car manufacturing process, automation advances, and fewer jobs. Yet the process is a transition over many years and this is accepted by the Biden administration and by the industry as it responds to slower demand for electric cars in 2024. This provides the time to bring up new training programs for workers, enable the funding of new research into battery technologies that would bring down the cost and make electric car prices accessible to the wider population. Uncertainty and fears about the transition are counteracted by the effort the Biden administration is making to bring up all manufacturing and to make large investments in American manufacturing.   ...

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The US should push forward with its plans to compete with China and Taiwan in the chip business. That was the intent of the Chips and Science Act that both parties supported in Congress. The naysayers simply don't want to take up the difficult challenges and are wilting even before the struggle to regain advantage in chip US manufacturing technologies has begun. Gelsinger at Intel says the scale is necessary for gaining technologies, and making chips for other companies is key to doing this. The products business and business manufacturing for other companies complement each other and enables Intel to co-develop technologies and introduce them faster. Amazon cloud computing has given Intel its business order for AI fabric chips, other companies will also decide to go with a US supplier. Gelsinger's goal at Intel is to make it the second largest manufacturer of chips by 2030. This is not just the goal of Intel, it is the goal of the US to recover its chipmaking capacity and technologies as a major priority for the Nation. It takes ten years to make such a change, after the neglect of the US to add funding for US manufacturers as China and Taiwan have done. Intel is doing this faster  and losses will peak in 2024. Leadership at Intel must persevere with "bold, persistent innovation."   ...

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...