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Bruni on the view that Obama has squandered his advantages of oratorical transcendence, poetry, serious thoughtfulness, in the U.S. presidential election of 2012. He does not mention the lack of a serious plan to turn the economy around, high rate of joblessness and declining incomes that are a basic issue in the 2012 election, and how oratorical transcendence has little correlation with getting the right policies implemented. The Des Moines Register's support in 2008 put Obama on the road to the presidency in 2008 with a victory in the Iowa primary. In 2012 it gave its endorsement to Romney to give him a chance to correct the problems with the economy and to do this with a new effort to forge the bipartisan consensus missing in the Obama first term.

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Iran Proposal that asks $2 million per ship to be split with Oman for opening the Hormuz Straits- April 6 2026. China, Japan can pay this amount to get the 90% of the oil they need from Hormuz, which would go to reconstruction of war damage in Iran. India would shift some of its purchase of oil and gas to the US and so will Japan over 2027-2028. This would result in a shift away from the Persian Gulf dependence to renewable energy and to buying oil and gas from US+Venezuela as more reliable sources. European Union and Britain would also make this shift as shown in the adjoining article by Prof Geoffron of Universite Paris Dauphine in Le Monde. The proposal also requires US and Israel to commit to no future attack on Iran, and Israel to stop its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The US and DJT call the new regime under a Speaker of the Iranian parliament, an elected president who had to respond to people sentiment in the election, and a grandson of Khomeini, one that is easier to talk with than the earlier regime. The problem remains nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles development that the US has as its sole objective which is what the war is about than Hormuz as the US and DJT say Hormuz is China and Japan's problem where for some strange reason these industrial powers import 90% of their oil from Hormuz and have done this after 40 years of disruptions, a mystery they can solve on their own. ...

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One commentator in Norway says "an entire state apparatus has played bankrupt" with Norway's international reputation. British and Norwegian Royals Sarah Ferguson divorced wife of Prince Andrew,  Princess Mette-Marit of Norway, and the Epstein Files showing messages exchanged with Epstein even after much of his history was known, show a lack of judgement that reflects badly on Britain's establishment, on Norway's establishment. There are media reports of Mandelson, Starmer's UK ambassador to US of having sent messages to Epstein on matters relating to confidential plans of the government to sell state assets and about policy influence under a previous Labour administration.This suggests to people in Britain that Labour has failed to appoint people of integrity to important positions. Before Rutte of the Netherlands took over as head of NATO, the head of NATO Stoltenberg for 10 years was from Norway. The total population of Norway of 5.5 million is less than the population of the Houston region. Should it exercise such an important role in the affairs of Europe much less of the world? It was under Stoltenberg's appointment in 2014 as head of NATO after losing an election in Norway, with Merkel and Obama's support, that gradually changed the perception of NATO as too close to Russia's borders so that by 2019 when Covid took place the situation deteriorated in Europe beyond recognition. Russia and China joined together and Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 with Stoltenberg in a role in NATO that reflected more the British view of NATO than how DJT and other Republican leaders perceived NATO. As America turns this chapter of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama years of failed politics in which US lost control in its own backyard to drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela, conducted wars in remote deserts and mountains in the Middle East, and lost its economic position to China, turned over NATO to  politicians who followed a British view of hostility to Russia that did not reflect the American view of working in cooperation with Russia, China and other major powers, this appointment of Stoltenberg a figure in the Norway establishment may be seen as another failure of the Merkel/Obama years. ...

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U.S. president Trump asks for resignation of Attorney General Jeff Session after the 2018 Congressional elections. The Democratic Party gained a majority in the House of Representatives, with the Republican Party retaining control of the Senate. This makes further investigations into Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election likely. The official probe into this meddling is being conducted by Robert Mueller, Special Counsel, which is supervised by Assistant Attorney General Rod Rosenstein because Jeff Sessions recused himself from the investigation.  The resignation leads to the Justice Department being headed by Matthew Whitaker, Mr. Session's top aide. Mr. Whitaker, a former prosecutor, is a conservative legal advocate who was critical of the Mueller investigation, in several tweets cited in this WSJ report, calling it  political fishing expedition," and calling for cutting the budget of the Mueller investigation to make it ineffective. Mr. Whitaker now supervises the Mueller investigation for 210 days till a successor is nominated by Mr. Trump. ...

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President Trump reset the border debate after the government shutdown on border wall funding by emphasizing immigration issues but not repeating his threat to call an emergency. This time he was more conciliatory on the border wall issue, explaining that it be " a smart, strategic, see through steel barrier, not just a simple concrete wall," and deployed in areas identified by border agents as having the greatest need. On withdrawal from Middle East, the president said "great nations do not fight endless wars." Trump now faces a rocky second half of his term because Democrats control the House of Representatives after the 2018 Congressional elections. He said "if there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be a war and investigation." He faces the Mueller investigation by Special Counsel Mueller on the meddling by foreign powers in U.S. 2016 presidential election, with the arrest of lawyer Roger Stone recently, and Democrats in no mood to compromise on the wall. ...

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William Burns, a former Deputy Secretary of State, and a former ambassador to Russia 2005-2008, looks at the U.S. and European Union relationship with Russia following the expulsion of Russian spies in 2018. He says the U.S. and the European Union should take strong action, yet hopes this is a passing phase so that a healthier relationship can be built with Russia in the long run through diplomatic channels. Expressing views expressed by former president Obama and other experts, Burns says Russia lacks the alliances and broader support that the U.S. and European Union have, and is much smaller than the larger economies of the Western alliance. Under Putin a strong interventionist position has made Russia look better at home but may not be the best for Russia in the long run, says Burns.   Burns calls for stronger sanctions on the economic elite and business leaders under president Putin. Yet the sanctions have not deterred president Putin and a long run solution needs to be found, including issues such as Ukraine and issues that affect the Russian economy so that the change in relations since 2014 can be reversed. After the Berlin Wall collapsed hopes for integration of the Russian economy into the West were raised yet were not realized for Russia in the years following the Yeltsin government and the Russian economy suffered, first during that period and then during emerging market crises. Russian disillusionment with the West was followed by a more inward looking economy under Putin to help stabilize the Russian economy, accepting devaluation of the ruble to make the Russian economy more competitive in a period of low oil prices. Foreign investment collapsed following the Ukraine crisis but the Russian economy adapted to the shock from oil prices. This was followed by efforts to preserve these gains with an interventionist policy that made the Putin administration look better at home and win popular support with strong action in Crimea and Ukraine. This interventionist policy has played out too far with the meddling in U.S. and European elections creating a backlash that is now taking place. With the European Union, having a traditional policy of restraint and good relations with Russia, openly questioning Russian policy under Putin. Much of that period when Russia responded first to the collapse of the Berlin Wall with the collapse of the Russian economy, and in the following decade facing emerging market crises and collapse of foreign investment -which created a more inward looking Russia under Putin in his third term- is shown in Lyrarc.com. In some ways the Russian response in Ukraine, the effort to bolster popular support at home in elections, and the interventionist approach are linked to the efforts to find a Russian response to the economic crises Russia faced since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Seen in this way a shift to better relations is still possible as a broader perspective is gained.  ...

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Years of failure of politicians in Congress in Brazil, and poor decisions in running the government by the Worker's Party by overspending leaving little money for services, sanitation, health and other priorities, leads to Brazil turning to a former army officer in the 2018 elections. Corruption charges with collusion of politicians and the state owned oil company on contracts known as the Car Wash scandal further damaged the reputation of politicians in the Worker's Party. Jair Bolsonaro was elected to Brazil's Congress in 1990 after a short period in the military at a time when democratic institutions were being restored in Brazil following decades of military dictatorship. By 2014 after two terms in office the Worker's Party led by a former automobile plant worker Da Silva had lost popular support with overspending, failure to upgrade public services and neglect of basic infrastructure such as sanitation, leading to widespread protests. In the 2014 congressional elections Bolsonaro won by nearly 500,000 votes, leading to his bid to run for president from a small party which had the support of Brazil's military. The military played a role in supporting the Getulio Vargas administration from 1930-1945, which pushed industrialization in Brazil and set minimum wage, workers rights. Democracy was restored by 1945 after Brazil sided with the U.S. in the war. In 1964 the administration of Joao Goulart was overthrown in a military coup after popular discontent and protests. Democracy was restored in 1985 with centrist parties playing apart till the election of the Worker's Party under Ignacio Lula in 2008. Six years into his administration by 2014 issues of overspending and poor management of public services led to loss of popular support for the Workers Party as the public looked for alternatives to combat crime, improve public services and address problems of lack of spending on sanitation, public services, health care. The collapse of the commodities pricing boom led to higher unemployment and a shrinking economy leading to unrest and public protests.  ...

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The director of research at one of two cybersecurity companies that monitors disinformation used by the Senate Intelligence Committee to analyze and give reports on the Russian disinformation activities 2014-2017, shares her conclusions. Information from Facebook, Google and Twitter was turned over to the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, which in turn handed it over to the two cybersecurity companies for analysis and reports. The Russian disinformation activities have continued in 2018, according to DeResta. The domestic propagandists and actors have taken these methods and used it to target sub groups, expanding the scope of these activities. The advertising related segmentation provided by these companies gives a ready made tool to easily target subgroups in the U.S. population. The viral activity arising from this means the message is carried over to other groups. As a result many groups are affected, affecting how democracy works through vigorous, yet intelligent debate. Explicit bias happens in election campaigns yet this is not spread through anonymous sources that are not identified and whose interests are known, as in disinformation efforts in a medium that spreads information quickly and without any depth whatsoever. For some minority subgroups the effects as ubiquitous, says the report. This report concludes that it is the responsibility of government, private organizations and individuals, and the tech companies combined to tackle this, as tech companies do not have the resources to deal with it. Its not enough to adjust how you sell advertising as tech companies are doing, says the report. The whole ecosystem of information is being compromised in multiple and still not fully understood ways, making it essential that a comprehensive solution with multiple combined efforts address it effectively. ...

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This report by Nate Cohn of the NYT shows how the U.S. election map is changing in 2016 with Hillary Clinton strong among college educated voters and weaker with working class voters than president Obama in 2008. She more than makes up for this loss of working class voters in many red Republican states in the southern U.S.- as Cohn shows there are about 1.5-2.5 college educated voters in the southern and mountain states compared to working class voters. The pattern is reversed in midwestern states where there are only about 0.5 college educated voters for every working class voters. This is why Trump is doing better in Ohio, Iowa and Clinton doing better in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Colorado, traditionally Republican states. Overall there is less focus on cultural wars and abortion issues in this election, with focus shifting to beneficiaries of globalization, and people hurt by trade and globalization in older factory towns. Even in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Cloumbus, Milwaukee, and in western Michigan Clinton does very well because of college educated voters, including white college educated voters. ...

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In exceptional reporting from Seoul, WSJ's John Lyons shows how the opinion has shifted in a matter of months in South Korea over installing the anti-missile Thaad system provided by the U.S.  Gallup South Korea polls show that since the election campaign earlier in 2017 opinion has shifted sharply, from 52% supporting Thaad to 72% support after the July 28, 2017 North Korean launch of an ICBM missile recently. When he took office president Moon halted installation of 4 addition Thaad anti missile launchers, now Moon supports installation. and it is moving ahead.  Anti-war activists earlier protested the installation at a golf course in Soseong-ri, and formed a group supporting Moon. Now only a few protesters are to be seen, says Lyons. 

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To the other reasons, callousness on social issues and towards women and immigrants, Rove adds additional ones. The lower voter turnout with ony 51.3% of voters turning out to vote in the 2012 U.S. presidential election, the poor timing of the convention when it should have been held in June, the lack of response to an ad blitz with negativity throughout the late summer that Romney lacked funds to respond to. He points to the role of the Super PAC's and the American Crossroads organization he created in preventing the Republican candidate from being strangled by a single ad blitz in the summer that spent 20% of election campaign funds of the Obama campaign.

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A partnership between rivals and the movement towards the 2016 U.S. elections.

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Experts say the election of Manuel Lopez Obrador as president of Mexico in June 2018 makes it easier to renegotiate the NAFTA treaty because Mr. Obrador's centre left positions to improve factory conditions and with it factory wages in Mexico, align better with Mr. Trump's goal of raising labor standards in Mexico. Robert Lightnizer, U.S. Trade Representative who leads the U.S. in talks wants to see 40% of the content of auto vehicles that trade duty free within the North American trading bloc of Mexico, Canada and the U.S. to be made at a particular wage level. The wage level the U.S. discussed is $16 an hour. The wage in Mexico is about $8 an hour on average in 2017, with parts plants at $4 an hour, according to the Centre fro Automotive Research. Mr. Obrador is more likely to favor the higher wages for Mexican workers because of his close relationship with the unions in Mexico. Mr. Obrador takes office Dec. 1, 2019, yet a leading member of Mr. Obrador's team will now join in the negotiations as soon as Mr. Obrador is declared president elect by end of June.   ...

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This editorial page opinion in The Economist says the increasing concentration in business is a real problem today. It says tech companies like Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon are entrenching through acquisitions of smaller companies and startups leading to an unhealthy level of concentration, and control of entire markets. More competition is needed so that startups and smaller companies can grow, and new ideas or ways of doing things get a chance. A big problem is tax avoidance with individuals paying taxes like everybody else, and large tech companies like Google and Apple having the option to not have to pay just like everybody else. It calls for a "tough-but-considered" approach to tax avoidance. Its not that the money saved in taxes goes back to support millions of people hired by the industry through workers wages and future investment that builds a future for workers and the company. It cites figures showing 1.2 million employed in the top 3 carmakers in the U.S. auto industry in 1990, and only 137,000 employed by the top 3 companies in Silicon Valley including Apple and Google with capitalization of about $1 trillion.This contributes to a sense of unfairness that is being expressed in voter sentiment in the 2016 elections, especially with the wide divergence in the way that the top 45 percent has done in net worth of over $400,000 in 2013, after the 5% which is in the millions, and the bottom 50 percent at average overall net worth of $25,000 in 2013. A huge disparity that  U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman Yellen, who cited these figures at a Boston Fed conference in Oct. 2014, says is "near their highest levels in the last one hundred years and probably much higher than for much of American history before then."  ...

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This editorial in the NYT says Bill Clinton moved the Democratic Party to the centre in 1992. In 2016 about 25 years later, after the removal of the Glass Steagall Act led to the 2008 global financial crisis and a deep recession, after the trade relations with China led to loss of U.S. manufacturing jobs over two decades and the hollowing out of industry in the midwest, things have changed. The revolution led by Bernie Sanders, a shrinking middle class, smaller access to college education for the middle and working class, and wide disparities in income, are putting the Democratic Party closer to its roots and the days of FDR. The Democratic Party platform calls for a 21st century Glass Steagall Act to separate normal banking from investment banking, opposes the TPP to prevent any further export of jobs overseas, and goes for a $15 minimum wage. This was also evident at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention when Sanders told the gathering in Philadelphia that even though he was not the candidate, these are the planks of the platform that Hillary Clinton will be pushing for in her presidency. What the editorial does not point out is that the Republican economic platform also calls for reinstatement of Glass Steagall Act, opposes TPP and opposes any loss of American jobs to overseas locations. It differs on the minimum wage leaving it to the states, and it is likely to skew tax cuts towards the wealthy, but also possibly removing the lower income brackets from taxes as Britain has done under the Conservative Party. Both parties today are looking for support from the middle and working class and have directed their appeal to these two groups which are in upheaval. The election of Trudeau in Canada recently also followed this trend, after the hollowing out of Canadian industry in Ontario and Quebec in a similiar pattern as in the midwestern U.S.  ...

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In his 2019 State of the Union speech Mr. Trump calls for unity but continued emphasis on the border wall and strict immigration. Democrats offered little approval of the speech even when it sounded conciliatory on parental leave and infrastructure. The president continued his criticism of Democratic leaders Schumer and Biden in informal remarks.  The president called immigration a "moral issue," saying "no issue more illustrates the divide between America's working class and America's political class than illegal immigration," that wealthy donors and politicians call for open borders while living behind gates, walls, and guards. This is the first time a president goes into a State of the Union Speech with 37% of Americans supporting him according to a Gallup poll. The only time a U.S. president had less support was in 1983 when Reagan faced a recession and in 2007 and 2008 when Bush faced problems with the Iraq War. Another feature of this House of Representatives in 2019 after the 2018 Congressional elections is that 131 women are now in the House. The president congratulated the women to wide applause.   ...

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The effort to revive India-U.S. relations after the visa episode and the landslide win by Narendra Modi in India's 2014 parliamentary elections.

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The 2018 election in Mexico brings to power a party called The Movement for National Regeneration or Morena created in 2014 by Manuel Lopez Obrador, after he left the PRD. Obrador ran on the PRD ticket for president in the last two elections. Obrador won with 53% of the vote, about 30% above the vote gained by the next leading rival.  Elections for the lower house of parliament showed a steep drop from 204 seats to 45 seats for the PRI party which was in power under president Nieto. The next leading party PAN which ran the government before the Nieto term in office, and the centre left PRD, were badly weakened. PRD now has 21 members in lower house of parliament compared to 53 before. So deep were losses for the opposition parties such as PRI and PAN which alternately ran the government, and particularly the PRI which dominated Mexican politics since 1950, that experts see Mr. Obrador as replacing the PRI's dominance of politics with the centre left Morena. Morena's rise is a result of work at the grass roots level in Mexico just when the PRI was discredited for corruption and failure to maintain the rule of law. PRI candidate for president Antonio Meade was a U.S. trained former finance, foreign and social development minister who lacks grass roots activism support base. ...

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U.S. senior Republican Senators Lindsay Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona, are getting ready to launch a wide ranging probe of Russian interference in the U.S. 2016 presidential election through cyber attacks. The probe is not limited to DNC hacking and the concern is not just that any one candidate was targeted but for the integrity of the American election process. Even though it is not mentioned in this report in the Washington Post by Demirjian, Senators and Congressmen from the Republican Party in charge of key committees of oversight on foreign policy and defense now see it as their responsibility to prevent an enlargement of cyberattacks as Germany and France face elections. Mr. Trump has said in an interview with Time magazine that Russia was not responsible for cyber attacks, that it "could have been China, it could have been some guy in New Jersey." Senator McCain is readying a probe into cyber attacks into U.S. weapons systems, and U.S. military, as the issue widens in its scope and significance for the West and for the U.S. and its allies in Europe and Asia. Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr (N.C.) will be working closely with McCain, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman, on this particular issue and Senator Mitch McConnell has been apprised of the discussions, according to this report in WP. Senator Graham said- "They'll keep doing more here until they pay a price." Graham will hold a series of investigative hearings in 2017 about Russian meddling and "misadventures throughout the world."  This will include new legislation.  Graham told CNN on Dec. 7, 2016 in strong language- "I am going after Russia in every way you can go after Russia. I think they are one of the most destabilizing influences on the world stage. I think they did interfere with our election, and I want Putin personally to pay the price." During the debates Governor Pence of Indiana, the Vice President elect took a strong position on Russia, and the Vice President's positions on foreign policy and defense are similar to that of the Republican leaders in Congress.  It is hard to remember a time in the post war period when there was such a distinct difference in foreign policy and defense as it relates to Russia between a Republican president and both a Republican Congress and almost all Republican governors. Senator Corker from Tennessee, who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is on the short list to be Secretary of State. A related story in the WSJ shows the selection of military leaders for key intelligence, defense and homeland security, and Gen. Petraeus considered for foreign policy, as diverging from historical practice of keeping civilian oversight preeminent in the U.S.. Rep. Peter King, an early supporter of Trump, who is on committees for intelligence and counterterrorism told MSNBC, that he is confident that Trump will not be "taken in by Putin." The U.S. Republican dominated Congress has taken a strong position on Russian interference in Syria and Ukraine. In the House of Representatives Republican Rep. Devin Nunes from California and Rep. Mac Thornberry from Texas are leading efforts on cyber and intelligence as heads of their committees. ...

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U.S. vice president Mike Pence visits the demilitarized zone between North and South Korea and says that North Korea should not pursue its nuclear weapons program. Pence says the U.S. wants to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear program "through peaceful means" but "all options are on the table." Pence said North Korea should not test "U.S. strength and resolve."  Snap elections are to be held May 9, 2017 in South Korea, with one of the candidates saying he would reconsider deployment of the THAAD missile system. Following the deployment of THAAD anti missile system in South Korea China has responded with a economic boycott of South Korean goods. Seoul is only 30 miles from the border with North Korea and the sentiment in South Korea is to avoid military action which would affect the region around Seoul of 20 million people. The missile tests by the North are also seen as a threat to South Korea and Japan. China sees the THAAD system as an effort to increase American presence in the region and has opposed deployment. The U.S. response has been to speed up the deployment of the THAAD missile system ahead of the election in South Korea on May 9, 2017. ...

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Public sentiment shifts sharply against free trade in the March 2016 Michigan primary for the U.S. presidential election, with candidates saying trade agreements do not take into account the interests of American manufacturing workers making large gains. Between 1999 and 2010 public sentiment shifted against trade agreements for all age, education and income groups. A study by Autor, Hanson and Dorn showed loss of 5.6 million jobs in the last decade and large trade deficits, and demonstrated the effect by counties in the U.S. most hurt by trade policies.

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House Democrats in the U.S. see the Republican health care plan making the same mistakes in 2017 that the Democrats made in 2008. With the passage of the bill in the House of Representatives with a vote margin on May 4, 2017, rushed through in the way the Obama bill was also rushed through, the nation remains as divided as ever on the issue of health care. The Republicans favoring limiting subsidies and cutting Medicaid, and using some of the savings for a tax cut. The Democrats favoring mandated coverage for all and large subsidies to reduce the number of uninsured Americans, with expansion of Medicaid for very low incomes. Democrats in the House say the Republican House bill will result in Republicans losing seats in the House in midterm elections.

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This Spiegel report looks at how far Germany has come in tackling the refugee crisis one year later in September 2016. It looks at the progress in several areas- housing, integration through language training, jobs and the labor market, school age children, crime, deportation, political scene and elections. Maintaining public support in the face of incidents such as the ones in Cologne and some terrorist incidents, the protests in cities such as Dresden, was tackled by negotiating a treaty with Turkey to turn back new refugees, and by letting countries in southeastern Europe such as Hungary to close routes used previously. Internal agreement with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and the CDU, led to a reduction in refugees granted asylum for each month in 2016. About 220,000 migrants were newly registered in the first half of 2016. Germany's EASY registration system shows 92,000 migrants registered in January and the number dropping to 16,000 in July.  Here are some of the figures on progress as cited by Spiegel. On BAMF, the Federal Office of Migration and Refugees- It has increased staff from 2300 employees in early 2015 to 8000, with many new offices opened, significantly more efficient than before. Housing- about a million refugees have found housing. Thousands of empty beds in emergency shelters and 1000 repurposed gyms are no longer needed. Smaller cities and towns have done better than large cities like Berlin, with hangars at Tempelhof Airport still housing refugees. Barbara Hendricks, Federal Environment and Building Minister of SPD party, has tripled funding for subsidized housing to 1.5 billion euros for 2018. Hendricks wants to repeal a constitutional amendment that shifts housing responsibility to states, so that the federal government is actively involved. Integration- BAMF head Weise estimates a shortage of 200,000 slots in language and integration courses. About 80,000 Afghans are not eligible for the programs. So far estimates by KMK representing education ministers of the 16 federal states, shows 325,000 children and young people integrated into school system in 2014 and 2015. Spiegel estimates 12,000 teachers were hired for this, and an additional 20,000 are needed says GEW. 58,000 daycare spots are needed for children arrived in 2015, and 9400 additional daycare personnel are needed. Wages have been raised. Jobs- The Federal Employment Office says 322,000 refugees were registered and seeking jobs in July 2016. Crime- Police crime statistics show 4% increase but when the asylum and visa related offenses are taken out the crime has not increased as it has appeared in the media. The events in Cologne had started a debate on this issue after teenagers harassed women near the Cathedral square. BKA Federal Criminal Polic Office says 1031 assaults on refugee accomodations happened in 2015, 665 in 2016. Incidents of Islamic terrorists happened in Wurzburg and Ansbach, and authorites have become more vigilant.  Deportation- the central register of foreign nationals has about 220,000 people who have to leave Germany. Because of wars in home countries 172,000 are still in Germany. Political scene- CDU and CSU sister parties have disagreements on immigration policy. There is fear about the country changing. Yet the new children in schools are only about 2% of the school children in Germany. As immigrants are mostly young people who will be required to take language training and integrate in schools and workplaces, the situation is different from the first wave of workers coming in from Turkey in early postwar period. Also lessons have been learned and integration is being required.   So has the most difficult period in this immigration crisis been put behind for Germany? It appears that this is the situation. Germany's economy was strong during the "wilkommen refugees" and it has helped the country deal with it better. The volunteer support certainly helped. State, city, and business leaders responded. What about the claims of Islamization. Because so many of the refugees are from a relatively progressive country such as Syria, and many from urban literate areas, combined with a policy of integration, this could prove to be a different experience for Germany. Because many left because of religious sectarianism or corrupt governments the immigrant mentality as a whole barring some exceptions, is likely different, seeking integration in a different modern culture that prizes the individual and respects his development. Over time and sooner than many realize, Merkel may be proved right when she says- "Germany will be Germany, with everything that is near and dear to us." When it comes to politics the CDU and CSU are taking the "homeland" theme as their own. Across the Atlantic Germany's example is being followed- as the number just a trickle about 4000 refugees admitted in 2014, has been increased to 110,000 for 2017 by president Obama, showing the power of the example in the face of adversity and skepticism. German culture and society tended to be insular and the experience of this type, difficult as it has been, and not something that was actively sought out, may have a positive effect. Particularly with the scarred immigrants who may want to embrace the new culture and not look back at what they left behind.   ...

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Kevin McCarthy, (Republican from California) is likely to win in the election of minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives. He has the support of former Speaker Paul Ryan who resigned in April. House Democrats winning control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election made it easier for McCarthy to win the election. In election of minority leader he needed only a majority of votes in a closed ballot election.

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As she runs for president in 2016, Hillary Clinton faces a difficult challenge- to give Democrats a third term in the White House. Presidents elected for a third term such as Truman who followed Franklin Delano Roosevelt, and president George H.W. Bush who followed Ronald Reagan, were helped by the popularity of the president from their party who preceded them. Reagan's popularity rating was 57%, in the month preceding the election of George H.W. Bush, according to Gallop poll. Truman continued the popular policies of FDR, and took a strong foreign policy direction with the help of a capable team led by Marshall and Acheson in responding to the Soviets in the Cold War, before the 1948 election. In that election Truman upset political pundit predictions. He also brought an extraordinary tenacity in the rail tour across the U.S. and on the campaign trail. Hillary Clinton faces the 2016 election with president Obama's popularity rating at 46%, with only 32% saying the country is on the right track, in the WSJ poll. This means Clinton will have to distance herself from Obama to some degree. Other issues include her age 67 years, and the sense that she is somehow from the past in U.S. politics, offset by the experience she now brings. Hillary's popularity rating show 44% having a positive image in a WSJ-NBC poll of March 2015, down from 56% when she gave up her position as Secretary of State in the Obama administration. Her main Republican challenger, Jeb Bush, has only a 23% favorable rating in the same WSJ/NBC poll. Hillary's strategy for 2015 is to avoid large gatherings and try to meet people in small groups in this election campaign, so that she can bring a personal touch and come alive as a candidate relating to the everyday aspirations of working people. Hillary's election will depend on whether she can mount the kind of campaign Truman fought and relate directly to ordinary voters....