LyrArc Article Gist
Two statements by Republican leaders in Congress show the seriousness with which they are approaching the issue of hacking by Russia during the U.S. presidential election of 2016. Senator Mitch McConell: "The Russians are not our friends, we need to approach all these on the assumption the Russians do not wish us well," strongly condemning the hacking. Rep. Paul Ryan: "As I've said before, any foreign intervention in our elections is entirely unacceptable. And any intervention by Russia is especially problematic because, under President Putin, Russia has been an aggressor and undermines American interests."

LyrArc Article Gist
Strict enforcement actions taken by the US to enforce sweeping restrictions on the export of technology and industrial goods to Russia ,and any foreign countries who seek to help circumvent the action taken to undemine the Russian defense and technology industries. Airlines in Russia, Aeroflot, Azur Air, and UTair are denied access to US made parts or to receive services anywhere in the world including refueling. The actions would apply to China and other countries if they circumvent controls. The controls are enforced through coordination with US allies and partners that monitor for compliance.

LyrArc Article Gist
In his Bastille day interview French president Macron says Russia could cutoff all gas supplies to France at any time. He says "we will do without Russian gas completely." France gets about 20% of its total gas imports from Russia. Norway, Qatar, Algeria and the US are adding to gas supplies to France. France expects to have gas reserves filled to "near 100 percent by the autumn." In the event of a protracted war France will continue western sanctions against Russia and help Kviv defend its country, said Macron.

France gets 70% of its energy needs from nuclear energy. France will continue to invest in nuclear energy.

LyrArc Article Gist
India imports 2 million barrels a day of oil from Russia. It now faces the need to address the problem this has created for Germany and US seeking an end to Russian missile attacks on Ukraine. Without other leverage DJT and indirectly Germany are putting pressure on India to shift these purchases to the US and cut India's $46 billion deficit with the US.  India needs to accept that the reprieve it got during the covid years to import from Russia to help it control inflation at home would at some time come under increasing pressure from the US. That time may be now as DJT and Merz see this as the only few areas of leverage they have to get Russia to reconsider its position for settling the Ukraine war entirely on its terms. Just as in the India Pakistan war the current talk of nuclear escalation resulting from the Ukraine war has to be a major consideration for US, EU, Russia, China and India, all the world's leaders, to step back and see ways to work for an overall interest than in time to come will help these nations national interests.  It will require brave moves from India, China, the US and Russia. Yet this is the new course that alone can bring a return to a world focused on modernization and improving the lives of the people of these nations. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany's and the European Union's oil imports from Russia are undermining western sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air says Russia earned 63 billion from fossil fuel exports since Feb. 24. Germany paid 9.1 billion euros for fossil fuel deliveries in the two months since the Russian invasion. Italy is next at 6.9 billion euros in oil and gas imports from Russia. China is third with 6.7 billion euros of oil and gas imports from Russia. The European Union is the main importer accounting for 71% or 44 billion euros of Russian oil and gas. CREA has found that western oil companies continue to do high volumes of trade in fossil fuels with Russia. This includes Total. BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bide meets British prime minister Starmer in Wasnhington as Britain is ready to approve use of its long range missile systems inside Russia. This comes as Russia is about to gain control of the Donetsk region. Republicans other than Mr. Trump and his supporters are for stronger support to Ukraine following US policy of opposing invasion to achieve military goals since 1900 against the Japanese in China and the Vietnam War was fought on the same basis in the 1960's considering the South Vietnamese state as an independent republic, just  invaded by the north, by North Vietnam, just as the US had done in the Korean War between North and South Korea. In the Vietnam War nationalism played apart with the Vietnamese nationalism prevailing by 1970. Russians see Kiev as the origin of the Russian State in the 9th century, and eastern region of Donetsk as Russian if western Ukraine seeks to join NATO and EU. Britain has opposed Russia since 1750 as it saw Russia as the threat to an Empire it was building in South Asia, in India that financially supported its Empire worldwide for 200 years till about 1950. Britain engaged in the Crimean War against Russia so that along with the French it could control Turkey and its Ottoman states in the Arab Middle East under the guise of trade. This effort was pushed back by Kemal Ataturk in the 1920's when he founded the modern state of Turkey in Ankara. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

LyrArc Article Gist
The Ukraine frontlines in March 2024 after the deep fortifications and the trenches built on the Russian side that stalled any Ukraine advances. Ukraine is building its own trench fortifications as it expects a Russian spring offensive. Ukraine is dependent now on Britain and Germany, France, as the US House of Representatives controlled by Republicans under Speaker Mike Johnson have not taken up the Senate bill for aid to Ukraine that passed by 70 to 30 on a bipartisan basis. The result is uncertainty in Ukraine and in Eastern European nations. Sweden joined NATO and has conducted exercises with Finland which has the longest border of any nation with Russia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia invades Ukraine on multiple fronts, across Belarus, across its western border with Ukraine, on the pre dawn hours of February 24, 2022. Russian foreign minister Lavrov says "tense and detailed discussions" with US and NATO are still taking place. In talks with the US, president Putin of Russia had demanded that Ukraine commit to not joining NATO. The US insisted that this was upto Ukraine and that the territorial integrity of Ukraine had to be respected. Interventions by Macron of France and other leaders failed to bring the two sides closer. The US and Europe with a reluctant Germany looked at sanctions as a deterrent. This proved to be wrong. Mr. Putin has a passionate view of Ukraine and Kviv's historical role in the formation of the Russian state, evident in his televised address only 48 hours before the actual invasion. Ukraine has shifted between Poland and the Baltic states, Germany on one side and Russia on the other in its thousand year old history. The shift away from Bolsheviks and Communists under the Soviet Union after 1990 changed the relationship of Ukraine with its neighbors once again as Ukraine became closer to Poland and the Baltics, and Germany. Germany remains reluctant to revert to the relationship with Russia that led to 2 World Wars. During the leadership of Willy Brandt and successive German SPD leaders, as well as with Konrad Adenauer and CDU leaders, the goal was to build a good relationship with Russia. Merkel of the CDU went as far as accepting dependence on Russia for 40% of its gas supplies, after shifted out of nuclear energy and supporting a new Nordstream undersea pipeline for gas supplies.  The early reaction on DW.com and German television was one of shock as no one really expected that this would lead to a full scale invasion. Scholz of the SPD the new chancellor in 2022 was not active in forging anew consensus allowing NATO's Stoltenberg who is a former Norwegian prime minister 2005-2013 to frame the response of Europe. Norway's role in European security was marginal for most of the twentieth century. Other events had detracted from bringing active German and American participation in coming up with a framework of dialogue to address concerns of both sides and still build a common ground for peace- Afghanistan, the pandemic in its third year, China's deteriorating one sided trade relationship with America that hurt American workers and manufacturing. As a result China and Germany were essentially absent in building the framework for peace. Afghanistan hasty withdrawal made it harder for president Biden to come up with new approaches to build a common framework. President Macron made some faltering efforts on the fringes even as president Putin focused on the US response and its intentions with NATO on European soil, and declared that it was directly US Russia negotiations that needed to work. With this the whole framework of relations since the presidency of Reagan and the relations with Russia and China come to a close. And a new framework needs to be constructed that draws in India already or soon to be the most populous nation in the world, in an effort to build an enduring new framework. The voices of Eastern Europe need to be heard, yet balanced with the voices from India, China, Germany, Russia, and other countries in Asia, Latin America and Africa that are affected by world events. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Shortages of Patriot defense systems interceptors made by Lockheed sytems by Raytheon. This leads to a shift in strategy to destroying the  "missile cities" facilities where missiles are stored in Iran.  And German aerospace maker MBDA to collaborate with the Americans to make these systems in Bavaria.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tech company VK makes Russia's contribution to the Internet with Max to rival WeChat and Whats App. Max has the backing of the Russian government and is a messaging, ecommerce, all aspect platform. Russia learned over the years that its governmental processes could be subverted by apps from overseas. This is also the experience in India where democratic processes can be subverted by apps from overseas. As a result the idea of one internet is not real, internet not of the world, not of the US, not of India, not of China or Russia, but of one company monopoly of Google with a sub monopolist of Meta with its control of Whats App and social media- clearly unacceptable. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia is expected to earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports in 2022, up more than a third from 2021. This more than anything else is supporting the currency. It also means Europe will continue to buy Russian oil and gas through 2022. The rest of the reason experts say for the resilience of the rouble is  that Russia has put in place capital controls and raised interest rates to 20%. This they say is an artificial boost and the rouble is likely to weaken in the long term. 

The steps take to keep the value of the rouble and also the damage to the trading and economic relationship Russia had with the world after invasion will reduce growth in Russia. Growth of 2.8% in 2022 will turn into 10-15% contraction in the economy in 2022. 

LyrArc Article Gist
In August 2008 Russia invaded Georgia and established the independence of the 2 breakaway countries of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia tried to enter NATO that year but the French and the Germans objected, and the U.S. did not want to commit deep in the Caucasus region. In the 2012 election the anti-Moscow government of Mr. Saakashvili was replaced by a government that sought friendly relations with the West and with Russia. There are still no embassies between Russia and Georgia. A special representative to Russia was appointed in the new government of Mr. Bidzina Ivanishvili, a billionaire who made his money in metals and banking in Russia. Saakashvili is now a Ukrainian citizen and is a governor of Odessa province, on the Black Sea, with separatist influence. Russia's trade ties with Georgia, a destination for Georgia's exports including wine, are gradually being restored after a trade embargo imposed in 2006. The trade embargo was lifted in 2013. The representative to Russia says its no use keeping the illusion of NATO membership even though it is an objective, as Georgia has to defend itself, the consequence of being in a difficult region. The strident anti-Russian rhetoric is now muted, as Georgia rethinks its relationship with Russia and the West to live in a difficult neighborhood. Ukraine went through some wild swings with the Orange Revolution, and the change in government to a pro-Russian government that jailed the earlier leader for corruption, leading to the protest movement calling for close relations to the West, the collapse of the elected pro-Russian government followed by the election of Mr. Poroshenko, and the Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014-2015, leading to western sanctions on Russia. The sanctions end in Jan 31, 2016. The situation in Ukraine may stabilize where the NATO readiness force and German chancellor Merkel's call for "a persistent NATO presence in the Baltic states," lead to a situation where Russia determines the best course is cooperation with its neighbors, and trade, economic relations....

LyrArc Article Gist
Extreme German dependence on Russian oil and gas that happened under the administration of Angela Merkel and the high oil prices today from a a lack of development of alternative renewable energy resources created the situation that provided the financing for Russia's war in Ukraine. This is now unwinding as the European Union and the US set a price cap of $60 for Russian oil. This cap will in future reflect the cost of production of oil in Russia among other factors, and the lower demand for fossil fuels as renewable energy production is accelerated quickly, and the inflation fighting efforts of the US central bank. Gradually the mechanisms and environment is being created for an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

LyrArc Article Gist
WSJ Editorial Board looks at the reserves being set aside by banks and oil companies against losses in Russia as the situation in Ukraine worsens in April 2022, and has questions for CEO's that have not made preparations for a similar situation arising in China. Too much is being done on Russia "on the fly." For China 83% of American company CEO's have made no plans for supply chain action for China even after the pandemic hit and after the supply chain chaos from zero covid policies. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have set aside $3.36 billion for Russia, according to Reuters. Shell says it may take charges of $5 billion to write down Russian assets. Exxon will take a similar charge. WSJ Editorial Board says the situation in China with respect to territorial claims on Taiwan are similar, and asks what preparation is being done for China risks. WSJ's Editorial Board says American CEO's should be calculating their supply chain and investment risk now in the event that there is a conflict in Asia. Some of this foreign investment has shifted it says as foreign direct investment as a share of China's GDP is down to 1.2% in 2020 from as high as 4.6% in 2005, according to the World Bank. Much remains to be done. Yet in 2021 despite the supply chain chaos from China's zero covid policies and rising geopolitical plus trade tensions, 83% of American companies operating in China were not considering or were not in the process of relocating their manufacturing or sourcing out of China, according to a recent American Chamber of Commerce in China business-climate survey. A figure that is the same as in 2019, a sign of complacency says the WSJ, one that could be costly, and with Russian write downs today a warning to executives that they should start preparing now for the danger that lies ahead. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The meeting of G7 leaders and of leaders from India, Indonesia and Argentina, South Africa, ended with a sense that economic sanctions the preferred tool against the Russian invasion are not working after 3 months. Discussions with India, Indonesia and other poor countries show the need for the developing countries for access to their large populations of oil at reduced prices from the recent skyrocketing prices. With oil and energy purchases made by China and India and other poor countries for reasons of price discounts from $125 per barrel oil, Russia is able to sell oil in other markets making up in price for the drop in volume. 

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's decision to make Crimea an autonomous region inside Russia. This follows a referendum in which Crimeans voted to join Russia. Russian president Putin says Russia has no further interest in the rest of Ukraine.

LyrArc Article Gist
In total this is a 50% tax on Indian imports to the US with DJT executive order of  August 6, 2025, 25% baseline for trade and 25% for Indian buying of 2 million barrels a day of Russian oil. US and EU say this money s fueling the Ukraine war, along with higher purchases than this by China from Russia, which add to Russian oil revenues and higher oil production. The order takes effect in 21 days so that India has time to come up with an agreement with the US. The Swiss also are scrambling to get an agreement, hit with 30% tariff.

LyrArc Article Gist
At this point in May (May 22, 2026) a glimmer of hope appears for settling both the crisis in Hormuz and the Ukraine war. Pakistan, Turkey and China following DJT visit to China may be pushing Iran to lower the scale of the conflict. China's first priority was to be accepted by the US at the Beijing meeting as an equal power with the US, and keen to show its willingness to bear responsibility for peaceful resolution in conflict zones as a sign of its maturity as a world power. Much of this is not shown in the media as it is mostly done behind the scenes in communications that the media knows nothing about. Note that even in the depths of the Cold War during the Hungarian revolution of 1956 and Soviet action in Budapest, the US and the Soviets when their economies were not intertwined as the US and China are today, were still talking to each other to limit the conflicts to low level conflict. Hong Kong takeover, China's actions near Taiwan, China's presence in Latin America, Chinese cooperation with Iran, and Russia on Ukraine, China's economic competition in rare earths, are relatively smaller levels of friction considering 1950's Soviet's and the US. At the same time China and the Us are aware of a new bloc emerging in Oslo in May, where India is merging its economy with the Nordic economies of Sweden, Denmark and Norway, and of the European Union and Germany, creating a new bloc of 2 billion people that can only grow rapidly with India's potential to exceed growth rates of 20% in the 600 million Eastern region for a decade. EU would make the shift to strategic partnership with India displacing the vital role the European Union has played in China's growth and economy. This would create new pressures for Russian president Putin to decide it is time to listen to a friend India and de-escalate lower the level of conflict with an initial peace deal that would lead to more talks on a final settlement. Because Russia would have a harder time tackling both India and Germany at the same time. NYT shows on the same day May 22 a report on Russia and a report by the Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Sonegard that say the elites in Russia and Putin were by January 2026 having very serious discussion to change the administration, bring Igor Sechin as negotiaor to end the Ukraine conflict before serious, possibly irreversible damage, to the Russian economy. Sweden's Sonegard says that between 2020 and 2024 Russian economy declined by 8%, not grew by 13% as official figures show, inflation is much higher than 5% as official figures show, and credit is tightening, bankruptcies expected, growth even with oil prices up down to 0.4% for 2026. During 20 years running Russia Putin's No. 1 priority, his life's mission was to restore, then exceed by a large margin the living standards of the Russian people. Having at such great cost accomplished the goal of gaining recognition as a Northern Power in Europe, having gained much of Russian speaking eastern Ukraine, Putin could wisely with self respect wind down Ukraine conflict for good. The US gains something similar to Northern Power status for Russia in its recommitment to the Monroe Doctrine, with Russia withdrawing from any involvement- and China tacitly doing the same-  in the western hemisphere. With that the US can tackle its own losses that match Russian losses in lives- loss of more American lives than in the Korean and Vietnam and WWI combined to drug smuggling from Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia, and restoring rule of law in Cuba, Venezuela, and through drug cartel free Mexico good governance in Mexico.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ report shows Russian oil exports to European ports actually increased in April compared to March 2022. Some of the shipments are sent out with destination unknown, and some oil is transferred to bigger oil tankers further out at sea. Mixing of the oil blurs its origin says this report. It cites TankerTrackers.com showing that ports in European Union member states which are historically the largest buyers of Russian oil had seen exports of Russian crude oil to these ports rise to an average of 1.6 million barrels a day in April from 1.3 million a day in March. Companies such as Shell consider oil that is less than 50% Russian as not Russian oil. Countries such as Netherlands are seeing increase in oil from Russia according to charts shown here. Simon Johnson, professor at MIT and former chief economist at the IMF says until there is an oil embargo this is likely to happen, and it is all about cheap energy. Even with an oil embargo Johnson asks will they sanction tankers out at sea. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Andrew Roth describes a situation in Russia where president Putin is more popular than the ruling party. The United Russia Party was shown having support of 45% in pre election polls. The election campaign used Putin posters and the slogan "the party of the president," to increase voter support.  Some voters see Putin working really hard to improve the economic situation. Samuel Greene, director of the Russia Institute at King's College, London, says that even after efforts to increase support United Russia Party has failed to generate voter enthusiasm. Voter turnout was low especially in Moscow and St Petersburg. The election result is seen by experts as a way to give Putin support to tackle the economic problems facing the country, and ensure stability. About 343 members of the parliament out of total 450 are from the United Russia Party. The budget shortfall of 3% is being met by the government  by using state funds, and one of the sovereign funds is likely to be exhausted in 2017. One of the options is to cut back on social entitlements, increase the pension age. Prime minister Medvedev has already said state pensions cannot be indexed because "we don't have the money right now." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Union is drafting a ban on oil imports from Russia, says this report in the NYT. The European Union now pays Russia about $1 billion every day for oil imports from Russia. Under chancellor Merkel Germany actually increased its dependence on Russian natural gas from 36% during Russian annexation of the Crimea to 55% today. In this way creating some of the conditions that emboldened Russia into its invasion of Ukraine, creating over 4 million refugees and immense destruction. Oil revenues of this magnitude of about $1 billion a day from the European Union help finance and prolong the invasion with enormous cost of human life. The longer the war lasts it affects a grain producing region in Ukraine that would lead to world food scarcity and famine.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in FR24 looks at the Ukraine war from a demographic perspective. The chaos in Russia after the collapse of Communism led to fewer births during the 1990's and there are fewer people born during this period who are now of child rearing age. This has led to a further effect on childbirths after the earlier decade when population declined to 143 million.  Mr. Putin has offered incentives for child birth, improved hospital care, and incentive payments to new parents. Yet the war can have its own effects of reducing the sense of economic well being and opportunity that drops the level of childbirths. This is already confirmed by statistics showing a decline in childbirths in the first quarter of 2022. The Russian government and Mr. Putin see that Russia's position in the world depends on its population. Mr. Putin may have wanted to make up for the population decline by integrating parts of Ukraine such as eastern and southern Ukraine into Russia, says this FR24 report. It also shows that other factors such as population decline may have played a part in the invasion. It is a miscalculation according to the Biden administration and also from the perspective of many Russians who see Ukraine as a brotherly people speaking the same language and sharing culture and traditions. Russia's occupation of Poland for 2 centuries since the 1750's, and the region of western Ukraine near the Polish border such as Lviv about 100 miles from the Polish border  with Polish influence and distrustful of Russia, have led to pro-EU sentiment in Ukraine. This played apart in splitting opinion in Ukraine about Russia leading to the conflict. With Putin going by historical ties with Ukraine from the foundation of the Russian state in Kviv in 1000, and today's geographical realities after 2 centuries of occupation of Poland and the desire for options to join the European Union of a younger generation of Ukrainians. ...