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Gas supplies are so tightly balanced that minor glitches can create a jump in gas prices and electricity bills, says this report in WSJ. There is no backup supply with about 2 million barrels of oil gas equivalent knocked out because of Ukraine war. Supply is 4080 billion cubic metres of gas worldwide and demand 4070, so tight. By comparison oil supplies have backup and are more stable gpoing up only 6% for Brent crude this week of Israeli conflict. Even the stoppage such as at the Tamar offshore gas field west of Haifa, Israel or a Baltic sea gas pipeline explosion in Finland can have an effect. Gas prices benchmark was up 40% during the Israel Gaza war, by comparison oil is relatively stable with Brent crude rising 6%. Iran exports 3.1 million barrels a day, the US to keep prices stable has not strictly imposed sanctions on Iranian oil.

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Russia is raising taxes on the rich, high earners and companies to keep military spending at levels not seen since the height of the Cold War of 6% of GDP. This is part of effort to keep the economy growing and standards of living stable as it pursues a long term policy of trying to push its borders further to the west in the Ukraine region and confront what it sees as unwarranted NATO expansion to its borders. Russia also with China's support is conducting its policy to show that it is undeterred by Sweden and Finland joining NATO or the early setbacks in its Ukraine war effort. This happens as China is moving to less strident positions in its relations with the EU and the US and working for some level of working relations on trade and economy with EU and the US as its economy slows down.

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Calmcations, off the track and cooler Travel- travel are trends in 2025. Calmcations as people look for less noise and more quiet. Cooler destinations are ones in northern Europe, in Scandinavia and Finland where summer temperatures are in the 20's compared to the heat in southern European locations.

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Health authorites in Italy, France, Britain India and the U.S, have hesitated in reopening schools. Germany and Denmark have reopened schools with no increase in infections with schools following specific policy including mandatory masks, air circulation rules, and careful preparation of schools to ensure social distancing rules are respected. Other countries reopening schools are Austria, Norway, Finland, Australia, New Zealand.

Schools in German states are reopen for about 1 month now, with a positive experience after careful preparation. Italy faces difficulty reopening its economy as people going back to work find it difficult, particularly women,with childcare provided by grandparents no longer an option, and lack of daycare. Opening of schools in Italy would help in reopening the economy, as well as provide relief to parents and children, when done carefully.

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Even today mask use can vary widely in the U.S. as seen in this map from the NYT. After repeated surge across the U.S. from the northeast to the south and west mask use has increased in the U.S. Texas has made it mandatory and president Trump wore a mask at Walter Reed Army hospital. Ypu.gov and other surveys show mask use as high as 80%, not universal as health agencies want to see, higher than Canada, Finland or Denmark.

Other factors such as gatherings at beaches, restaurant and bars, and earlier sport stadiums gatherings are additional factors for a surge. Young people's cooperation has lagged behind accounting for about 50% of cases in some southern states recently being among young people.

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Finnish president Niinisto provides a new understanding of Mr. Putin and the thinking that led to the invasion of Ukraine. Mr. Niinisto has an advantage having spoken with Mr. Putin countless times says this report in WSJ, and spoke again to Mr. Putin on May 14 to tell him that Finland was planning to join NATO. Putin simply responded that Russia does not pose a threat and "you made a mistake." He says it was not the Finnish way to not call Putin and tell him directly, and that not doing so would be like sneaking away around the corner. Mr. Niinisto says WSJ, has a rare insight into the thinking that led to the behavior of Mr. Putin in launching the war. Here are some insights from this report by Adam O'Neal of WSJ. On the situation in Ukraine Niinisto says " I would be a lot more worried about Ukrainians than about how Russians feel." Mr. Putin's willingness to see Ukraine's industrial centers, its infrastructure and cities destroyed, turning them into moon craters in the east compares with the relative ease of life in Moscow, St Petersburg and other cities, cushioned by Russian oil and gas exports and financial reserves. As a student of Finland's long and violent history with Russia Mr. Niinisto has some unique insights into Russian thinking. He tells WSJ's Adam O'Neal  that if a Russian is angry, yes, be careful, but if he's calm, be even more careful. The Russian invasion of Finland led to loss of 200,000 lives in 1939-40, and another 250,000 Russian lives in fighting between 1941-1944. Finland has 300,000 men or women in military reserves and men between 18 years and 60 years are called up for military service with the Finnish Constitution requiring every citizen to contribute to national defense. Recently Finland ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets from the US. What led to the invasion of Ukraine by Mr. Putin? Niinisto says that "somehow Mr. Putin has a feeling that Russia was betrayed in the 90's by the West. Over time this thinking continued feeding the negativity says Niinisto and led to the thinking that Russia could be betrayed once more.  Another aspect of Mr. Putin which was covered during the last decade of relations with Ukraine in Lyrarc, was his perception that Ukraine under various leaders before Zelensky was basically led by corrupt leaders including one president he supported but lost power in the last decade. Mr. Putin saw protests in Kviv and Lviv that ousted a president he supported recently as orchestrated from outside. This led to thinking that Ukrainian nationalism did not exist and he believed that Kviv would not be defended and would fall easily within a week or weeks. As his nationalist perceptions and that of a small group that included his partner in office Mr. Medvedev became stronger in the last ten years Mr. Putin made the decision to take the option for invasion in the thinking that the response of the US and Germany would not be to support Ukraine with arms and other aid. The CDU and SPD was perceived as weak in Germany and Scholz not seen as able to cut down oil and gas imports to the EU. Biden was seen as not willing to stop Russia by taking on a difficult conflict because of China allying itself with Russia, considering China's interconnections with the American economy. The timing was seen as good considering that this level of dependence on oil and gas imports of Europe on Russia would never be the case after planned shifts to renewable energy. The Russian economy was cushioned by its $620 billion in reserves and by the world's need for energy even as the shift to renewable was taking place. This window my have induced Mr. Putin to take what appeared to be a rational decision that ignored the common feelings of humanity of risking the destruction of a brotherly people that spoke Russian, prayed in Orthodox churches, and where Russia as a state started in the year 1000. Cambridge historian Brendan Simms in his new book "Europe : The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the present," has shown all European powers susceptible of reasoning and calculation of this type in their wars since 1453 in the struggle for supremacy in Europe up to the present- the Portuguese, the Spanish, the Dutch, the British, the French, the Germans, the Russians, the Danes, the Swedes. This also led to British and French empires in Asia and Africa with subjugation of Asian and African people. The Second World War had created the perception that somehow this had changed after the loss of millions of lives- that was the perception of Merkel a pastor's daughter who had grown up in the former communist state of GDR in East Germany, and of SPD leader Steinmeier who felt strongly about the loss of lives from the Nazi invasion. Merkel and Steinmeier built the relationship of Germany with Russia that has collapsed under Germany's new leader Scholz and Habeck-Baerbock of the Greens party. Merkel and Steinmeier also built the trade relationship with China that also faces collapse with China's support of Russia under Mr. Jinping, and the unexpected shifts in Chinese leadership and policies from that pursued by premier Deng and his successors in 1990-2010 of interconnected economic links with US and EU. Mr. Scholz, the new chancellor of Germany has Brendan Simms book on Europe on his reading list for 2022 as he ponders over the lessons of 2022 and the pandemic. Mr. Biden with long experience in the Senate of the US has a memory and understanding of what happened since World War II, how America got to this point, and what it will have to do to bring back the American spirit to the Free World that America has led for most of the last two hundred years. ...

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The recovery effort in Japan following the tsunami has increased to $300 billion with the cost of construction doubling over 10 years. Half a million people were displaced and the Fukushima nuclear reactor in meltdown. Many people have not returned. At the time of the disaster half of the people affected by tsunami in the northeastern Tohoku region were over 65. Population is now down by 6% as people move to large cities. The effort was meant to rebuild homes, damaged infrastructure, and to revive agriculture, fishing and tourism. It has cost $2400 for every person living in Japan.

The tsunami crashed into 1000 miles of northern coastline, putting entire communities 6 miles inland under water.

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Merkel tells Hungarian news portal Partizan that the Baltic States and Poland made efforts to reduce efforts for dialogue with Russia, and that this dialogue and meetings were also made difficult during the Covid pandemic. Merkel did not address other issues of EU and US relations with Russia over the decade when Russia was not integrated into European structures as a Northern European power. Britain and Netherlands also supported Poland and the Baltic States in efforts to keep NATO as a force and counterweight to Russia in Europe, something Merkel did not cover. Merkel appears to have been selective in covering only this issue in EU-Russian relations and not the larger issues that Merkel never addressed of ending the Cold War structure of NATO that Britain, Netherlands and Poland had favored. The result is that without German or US leadership the Cold War structure of NATO favored by Britain, Netherlands and Poland has been expanded to include Sweden and  Finland, and without a clear resolution of the Ukraine issue created a new situation. This situation is the return of the Cold War in another form with Russia and China, losing the opportunities presented to both sides to use trade and improvements in standards of living to create a durable peace for economic development and addressing the problems that have led to deindustrialization of US and European Union countries. ...

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Rajeev Suri heads the business made up of the Siemens Nokia Network. This is the remaining part of Nokia after the sale of the hand set business to Microsoft. Siemens exited the Siemens Nokia Network and this is now managed under Nokia in Finland.

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War in Ukraine after failed Alaska effort by US to end the war. In September 2025 Russia holds out, spurning peace efforts from the US president, to see if the economy holds out over the next 24 months and Russia can get Ukraine to abandon it's efforts to join the EU and Western European alliances. The baffling aspect of this war is that the neutral aspect adopted by Finland before the war, by Sweden, by the Swiss, was never considered as a realistic option by Ukraine, looking beyond the problems of the 1930's and having awareness that there were weaknesses in both the capitalist and the Soviet systems, to take the broad larger view. And with that being realistic that a better effort would be to reflect on the corruption and lack of clean government, the need to build the healthy institutions that would serve the people best. The approach taken by Gandhi in India in its relations with Britain, to preserve the best and improve on what failed the Indian people, and reflect on the integrity, the right attitude needed for India in the Modern World. From the Russian side the failure to use the period before the shift to renewable energy to invest the capital used in the war of $200 billion a year for a stronger economy and industrial base in 2022- 2027- an investment of a trillion dollars that would make it the industrial power and support its position as the preeminent power in Northern Europe. ...

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This WSJ report looks at the work of Alexei Miller as head of Gazprom which supplies Russian natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline to Europe. Mr. Miller is shown to have put too much reliance on the European market which is now shrinking with the European decision to cut dependence on Russian gas. compared to alternative markets in China Russia has invested too little in pipelines to other regions in Asia. He has also not invested in LNG which could be shipped to China and other countries leaving Russia too dependent on pipelines that run mostly to Europe such as Nordstream 1 and 2.  Russia was sending 160 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe and only 11 billion cubic metres to China in 2021. A major shift requires much new infrastructure. Miller also did not grasp how shale oil and gas would boom in the US. Mr. Miller started as a 39 year old economics PhD in 2001 when Putin made him head of Gazprom. Both had worked together in St Petersburg local government, and Miller was Deputy Energy Minister for 1 year, briefly head of a pipeline system to the Gulf of Finland. ...

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The story of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city only 25 miles to the border. Santora and Hicks give this report on life in the city which faces constant missile and other attacks with much of its power and other infrastructure destroyed, and schools operating deep inside subway stations. Nothing like this destruction has been seen in European cities since 1945. Europe had only the Balkan conflict limited to Yugoslavia 1991-1995 as the country split into several states, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro, and Slovenia and the US settlement in 1995 following NATO bombing in Serbian Bosnia. The Ukraine conflict stretches back decades starting in 2014 with the Maidan protests in Kiev and fall of the pro-Russian Yakunovych government. After a brief war and Russia taking Crimea it ended with the Minsk Agreement in 2015. Russia had supported separatists in Donbas region. Russian is the language in Russia and Ukraine and both countries share a common historical heritage. It started again with Putin's complaints about NATO enlargement in 2021, followed by an attack on Ukraine in 2021 bringing Finland and Sweden into joining NATO, and US support to Ukraine's defense.  ...

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Ahtisaari helped mediate peace in Namibia where he was the UN envoy in charge of 8000 UN peacekeepers, in Aceh, Indonesia, and in Kosovo. He also worked on Sunni-Shiite peace efforts. He was a school teacher who joined the Finnish Foreign Ministry, served in the UN as Finnish envoy, and was President of Finland from 1994 to 2000.

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Hispanics are moving inland from California and other states bordering Mexico in search of new opportunities in midwestern states. There is a large increase in Hispanic population of states in the midwest- in Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana and Illinois. Population of Hispanics has grown in the midwestern states of the U.S. by 49%, much higher than the 4% overall population growth between 2000 and 2010, according to the census. The population climbed sharply in Iowa, by 82% in the decade, making Hispanics 5% of the state population. Cities such as Ottumwa, southeast of Des Moines, have seen revival in the economy as Hispanics moved into the town and revived local businesses, creating new demand for retail stores like Wal-Mart and Menards. Hispanics often worked two shifts including work at the local Cargill meat packing plant. Small towns and cities across the midwest suffering from recession are being revived with the new influx of hardworking Hispanics.

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The Baltic cables cut were first the cable linking Sweden and Lithuania. Following this the cable connecting Germany and Finland was cut. China's government was not involved, and China says it strongly supports maintaining the security of international submarine cables in accordance with international law. The Chinese ship was carrying Russian fertilizer and had visited Russian ports. Danish Navy ships then tracked the Chinese ship and made it anchor in the Kattegat Strait connecting the Baltic and North Sea. Damage to underwater cables happened in Swedish waters resulting in Sweden launching an investigation.

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Any idea that herd immunity is the way out is dispelled by a simple look at these pictures from the NYT showing what the level of infections are today and what they would have to be for "herd immunity." No Asian nation has even mentioned the word. Most Asian nations have the most experience with virus of all sorts. The only government that supported the idea without saying so openly is Sweden as indicated in a report in FR24 on the amplification of coronavirus in Sweden compared to neighboring Denmark, Norway, Finland. Imagine with a threshhold of 60% of people having antibodies provided by experts for herd immunity, the current New York level of about 20% would have to triple, and Sweden's 7% would have to grow seven fold. It is hard to imagine New York going through something of these proportions. Looking at what works now that other countries handling it have set examples of what works provides a better way- low tech contract tracing the German way, and one used in Asian countries, and the cluster isolation through testing and contact tracing adopted in many Asian countries as well as Germany. Strengthening public health systems, and working one's way out of the crisis where there are no easy answers offers real and realistic hope. ...

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China has a mountain of local debt that is seriously affecting the Chinese economy, time for can kicking is over. WSJ looks at this in 6 charts. Lanzhou and Guilin are 2 provinces where the fiscal capacity is already exceeded by interest on debt. Huzhou, Kunming and Chengdu are three provinces where interest on local debt takes up about 60% of fiscal capacity. The problems are complicated by dropping land sales, and LGFV bonds issuance at higher interest rates when the return of power projects is as low as 1.5%, and low on other projects. Yet there is hope because these provinces are inland provinces in north and west except for mega city of Tianjin. Land sales have dropped and replaced by LGFV or local government financing vehicles bond issuance at higher interest rates than bank loans. Conversion of LGFV to lower interest is being done, with provincial bank debt creating other problems.

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Did Kirsten Tatlow points out the different perceptions of China's anti-corruption initiative in a country with deeply rooted corruption. China's ranking dropped to 104th of 175 countries ranked for corruption in Transparency International's Corruption Index for 2014. The current campaign under Xi Jinping is lacking because it is partial, opaque and politically driven say researchers at Transparency International. For it to be effective it has to be done in a transparent manner, and with stronger laws for bribery, whistleblower protection, asset declarations, according to the researchers. China dropped 20 places since 2013. China's score declined by 4 points to 36. Denmark is highest at 92. Turkey dropped by 5 points. Norway, Finland, Sweden and New Zealand, are at the top of the list. Transparency International points out that free speech, accountable government an independent judiciary are essential to tackle corruption. These are not sufficient however as the example of India shows. A culture of corruption or lack of transparency and effective laws can enable corruption to grow even in countries with genuine democratic process. Democratic process does provides remedies through a change in administration as happened in India with the decisive defeat of the corruption scandal affected Congress government....

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France has some obvious strengths in nuclear energy with 58 nuclear plants generating 80% of France's electricity. And Electricite de France is owned 85% by the French government. The French government is working to setup a partnership between EDF and the other nuclear energy generator manufacturer Areva. Problems include the larger reactors that Areva makes and the company falling behind in the schedule to set up reactors in Finland. Abu Dhabi recently opted for South Korean reactors.

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S&P downgraded France's credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Jan 13, 2012. S&P downgraded Italy's credit rating to BBB+ and Spain's credit rating to A. The AAA ratings for Germany, Netherlands and Finland were left unchanged. S&P stated its reasoning: "Today's ratings actions are primarily driven by our assessment that the policy initiatives that have been taken by European policy makers in recent weeks may be insufficient to fully address ongoing systemic stresses in the eurozone."

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Simple numerical skills, finding information on a website might be difficult for a good third of the American population. Peggy Carr, a Commissioner at the Education Department says- "There’s a dwindling middle in the United States in terms of skills. Over time we’ve seen more adults clustered at the bottom.”  US is lagging behind other countries and is also having a shocking level of lack of basic skills for a significant part of the population. The failure of the Education Department and different administration's programs in the last 3 decades suggests need for companies and individuals to come up with their own efforts- including use of Lyrarc.com for reading comprehension and numerical skills. The number of test takers whose skills were at about the level of a primary school student in math went up to 34% in 2024 up from 29% in 2017. Program for International Assessment of Adult Competencies Test was given in 31 economic regions, to 161,000 people of which 2600 were in the US. It was given in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2023. US ranked 14th in literacy, 15th in adaptive problem solving, and 24th in numerical skills. Countries doing best ranked are Finland, Japan Norway, Sweden and Netherlands, Estonia, Belgium and Denmark. Northern Europe does best and Japan.   ...

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In August 2023 the Ukraine war is reduced to small unit tactics after a stalled Ukraine offensive. The results of the war over the last 2 years is a broadened NATO with Sweden and Finland inside NATO increasing the borders of NATO with Russia. On the Russian side some of eastern Ukraine on the Black Sea and the Dnieper river are now part of Russia in addition to the Crimea. The Ukraine offensive is stalled. Russia's economy has shifted from its western European orientation for energy exports and auto other imports to a Chinese orientation.  These changes are likely to remain with a shift of supply chains back from China and its suppliers to the US and the EU. This acts to restore the factory bases in the US and EU and revive communities built around factories in small towns across the region. This will bring back regions in the EU and the US that suffered from the loss of factory jobs and public services they supported. Overall this is a healthier situation for the people of Europe and the US. For China also the situation reverses to better quality yet slower growth, and a pause to take stock of the immense changes that happened with explosive growth in trade- the damage to the environment, floods and heat waves from climate change, the explosion in debt to three time its GDP, higher unemployment, rural poverty, and devise solutions to these problems. The war has accelerated the unraveling of the existing economic, social and trade arrangements that had stopped working for many years. ...

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American Enterprise Institute, conservative think tank, supports Kiel Institute of the World Economy figures that say European Union aid is about double that of the US to Ukraine. Quite the reverse was stated in casual seemingly reckless fashion to 67 million viewers by former president Trump. Moderator David Muir should have had the facts right before him to correct this as this was a much anticipated topic and perennial Trump gripe. The US is not getting creamed- no way, the Europeans are paying up and keen on doing so $187 billion to the US $98 billion. Even with the best of intentions on fact checking this is not good enough from ABC News, or for that matter the rest of the television media - the CBS's, Fox's, NBC's, CNN's, not to mention the internet media, a disservice to democratic process that is built on facts not delusion.  To someone working 2 or 3 part time jobs, or the less literate who can't do quick fact checks that can be time consuming, or educated viewers who hav little inclination to check so much that is being thrown at them- what does it mean to have grievance and grudge thrown at them leaving the impression that the US is incapable when it is in fact greatly strengthening NATO alliance including Sweden and Finland and ties with Western Europe that were damaged over time since the Reagan period in the 1980's.   ...

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Norihiro Kato, a professor at Waseda University, describes the change of heart of former prime minister and LDP leader, Junichiro Koizumi, after visitng a nuclear waste facility in Finland. Koizumi who supported nuclear power for Japan has now come out in opposition to dependence on nuclear power. Kato presents the idea of a post-growth phase for Japan in which nuclear power is phased out, as is being done in Germany. The idea being that Japan does not strive for a return of an earlier period of growth but looks to creating a new future that is different from the past.