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The Biden Xi meeting brings together the leaders of the two countries for normal stable relations that as Mr. Xi says are for "the benefit of the two peoples and fulfill their responsibilities for human progress." Both leaders have learned from the errors of the past two decades that hurt both the US and China with excessive dependence on trade, supply chains and manufacturing on China that devastated American communities and manufacturing. The relationship was not managed well and left to business to determine and chart out that resulted in failure. Business simply pursued its own interests company by company not putting uppermost the common interest of the two peoples. Today there is new respect on both sides for the other ,and a cautious assessment of relations without the over enthusiasm and the rejection of the past. Now replaced by working in the interest of the two peoples and for the world.

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To reduce its reliance on China for nickel supplies and secure the supply chain LG Energy Solution has signed a $9 billion deal in Indonesia that sources nickel supplies in Indonesia and produces the EV batteries in Indonesia. The deal was signed with Indonesia's mining company Antam and Indonesia Battery Corporation. Indonesia is the largest producer of nickel with 21 million tonnes of reserves according to US Geological Survey data. The entire process will now be done in Indonesia- smelting and refining nickel, manufacturing precursors, cathode materials and cells, and assembling finished products. LG Energy Solutions is also working with Hyundai Group to build a $1.1 billion battery manufacturing plant 65 kilometres southeast of Jakarta. At this time most of the materials for EV batteries are processed in China and about 11% of the world's production of Nickel comes from Russia.  China's Amperex the world's top battery maker also has signed up with Indonesia's Antam mining company for a similar $6 billion project. For LG Energy Solutions the second largest battery maker the stable supply of raw materials and reduced dependence on China and Russia is becoming important with the situation in Ukraine.     ...

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The European Union's trade relations with China, and the trade and industry relationship between Germany and China built during the Merkel years is a part of the overall trade setup of the Free World that is likely to be questioned by Habeck, Baerbock of the Greens and chancellor Scholz after Mr. Biden's launch of the IPEF economic alliance for Asia. During her period in office Merkel also built the German trade relationship with Russia leading to Germany being dependent on Russia for 51% of its oil and natural gas supplies. The German dependence on Russia for energy is now being reversed by the efforts of Economy Minister Habeck of the Greens party in the Scholz coalition. The supply chain renewal and redesign by president Biden is likely to be followed by Germany and France and the EU. With it more investments will be shifted back to the US and the EU and allies in Asia such as India that offer a large pool of well trained workers similar to China's. In this sense the IPEF arrangement will be repeated in European Union's new relationships with Asia under the Greens SPD German coalition's leadership. ...

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Indian PM Modi to visit US on Feb 12-13 2025 to hold talks with DJT at the White House. India accepts the 18,000 undocumented migrants as DJT says he is confident that India will do the right thing on this issue. Talks will centre on the new supply chain and reducing overdependence on China for manufacturing, bringing jobs and factories back to the US and how Vikshit Bharat 2047 fits into the US plan for a diversified supply chain in Asia.

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In this report in TOI, Vijay Gokhale, former foreign secretary, points out the big shift taking place in how Germany like the US is paying attention to its mistake of overconcentrating its supply base and investments in one country, China. This type of overinvestment in one country does not make sense for a country for its supply chain, until one accepts that China succeeded to a great extent in building next generation infrastructure, logistics, and ease of manufacturing in China. India is only now learning this lesson- and Modi's experience in Gujarat stemming from studying China's evolution as an industrial nation. Lessons that are now being applied all over India to do, to build the kind of next generation infrastructure and logistics that would make it attractive to make in India and invest in India for Germany and the US. Gokhale describes the intense discussions that are taking place in the inner circles of all three parties, Merkel's CDU out of power questioning Merkel's policies of building so much concentration of business in China, the SPD questioning why it went along, and the Greens knowing that India is their natural partner and the one partner that thinks and acts most like the Greens Baerbock and Habeck. Baerbock is critical of the sale of a stake in Hamburg port to China. No other German leader is like Baerbock, who feels really at home in India in a way that few German leaders have during her recent visit. There is so much change in the Biden administration and in the three major parties thinking about China and how the future of the western nations rests squarely on India's shoulders and its young aspiring population of 1.2 billion, that even India under Modi's leadership for technological change and infrastructure has not kept pace with these changes. This is why Gokhale calls it tectonic. ...

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Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

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India European Union Trade Deal - huge potential for EU and India for 2 billion people size markets, new manufacturing hubs, and advanced scientific + technological cooperation. Timing is critical. From the first term of DJT 2016-2020 it became clear that the supply chain concentration in China was a serious error for America and Europe. Modi came into manage the federal government in India in 2014- that first phase was to tackle the basic problems in health care sanitation and road infrastructure, agriculture. By the second term of DJT Europe had realized something had to be done to reduce concentration of trade  supply chains in China. Two things had to happen to bring India and EU together. The Ukraine War and China's indirect participation on the side of Russia, the change in administration from Merkel to SPD's Schulz,  and in 2026 to Merz and the CDU created a new awareness of the need for EU and India to come together. Yet Scholz SPD hung onto the special trade relationship even in the face of the Ukraine war and China's shift when it allowed the port of Hamburg stake taken by China to be retained. Something had to happen to jerk Germany and with it the EU out of its inability to shift towards India. Merz took this step in 2026 as the relationship with China soured over Ukraine war and the grasp of the dangers of overconcentration of the China relationship with Germany that Merkel had created. On the other side Modi had to get India's logistics, road and rail networks, ports ready for such a trade relationship where goods could be quickly shipped into and out of India. Modi worked on these investments on a rapid basis in his second and third terms. India had to offer stability in the relationship. This meant winning elections to set up state governments in key states such as Maharashtra for Bombay (Mumbai) region, Delhi capital region, and Bihar/ Orissa (Patna region northeast), Rajasthan (Jaipur northwest region), local city governments in Bombay (Mumbai) region and in the south in Andhra (Vizag region) + Trivandrum (Kerala). The combination of federal and state and city governments working in unison plus logistics and transportation, put India in contention for the role of a size and magnitude that would make a difference for Europe in its relations with China and Russia. That necessity was now fulfilled and in place. Merz and Modi, seized the chance at the kite festival in Gujarat's Ahmedabad, with a vist to the Sabarmati Ashram of modern India's founder Mohandas Gandhiji. Von Der Leyen also from CDU now joins the former premier of Portugal Antonio de Costa as heads of EU to attend the Republic Day parade celebrations in New Delhi on January 26. Nothing happened by chance. It took the hard work that in Robert Frost's words in Mowing ( "the fact is the sweetest dream that labor knows my long scythe whispered, for the earnest love that laid the swale in rows"). Japan plunged headlong into imperial ambitions after its modernization, China has ambitions under its Communist/ Markets system, India as the homeland of the Buddha and the Buddhist civilization of China, Japan and Indochina, and with its special place for Mohandas Gandhiji brings the European civilization in connection with a civilization that is just as old and advanced as the European in its philosophical and religious foundations with practice in real life, and not likely to flounder on the rocks as the Japanese and Chinese expansionist ambition based ideas. And once again with Robert Frost in- Putting in the Seed in Springtime, for Merz, Leyen, Da Costa, and for Gandhi and Modi - "On through the watching for that early birth when just as the soil tarnishes with weed, The sturdy seedling with arched body comes shouldering its way and shedding the earth crumbs."     ...

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The Biden administration has announced a 100 day review of strategic vulnerabilities in America's supply chain. President Biden has said he supports funding of incentives for production in the US, to become independent of China and Taiwan. From 1990 onwards chip production in the US went from 37% to about 12% today. It will now go back up. Biden's National Security Adviser noted in an article in Foreign Policy that advancing industrial policy like Japan and France once considered out of tune is now essential, "something close to obvious."  At one point in the post war period America's most advanced jet engines were made in West Berlin, surrounded by the army of Russia and its ally the GDR. There is new realization that dependence on Taiwan which makes 22% of semiconductors worldwide and 50% of advanced designs cannot go on the way it is exposing a critical vulnerability for American industry. A 40% tax credit for the cost of new semiconductor fabrication plants and other incentives are now supported in the Biden administration. The whole idea is to turn this around quickly where US no longer depends on uncertain supplies from overseas. Four critical areas of strategic vulnerability will be reviewed- pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, batteries, and strategic materials. ...

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The coronavirus is making implementation of the U.S. China trade deal less likely as Chinese imports from the U.S. decrease and China's exports continue to grow. China's exports to U.S. decreased by $60 billion but increased to other countries by $70 billion in 2019.

As a result the Trump administration is shifting its focus to another approach. The new multilateral approach is to combine the effort with allies Australia, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and France. This would take the shape of a Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership to replace the old Obama period Trans Pacific Partnership which becomes defunct. The goal would be to build new supply chains with allies in Asia outside of China with the help of France and other countries that are wary of excessive dependence on China and have deep reservations of China's handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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How the expression "owning the libs" found its way into the current vocabulary and its meaning today. Seen as it relates to the Republican party and choices of some sections of the party to overemphasize the importance of so called culture wars on the difference of opinion about abortion and women, immigration, diversity. This happens in the context of the larger issues of national importance of national character, America's leadership in the world, America's position in science and technology in the world, American education, fighting climate change and rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. After the Ukraine war, differences with China, and the reorganization of America's supply chain in the world reducing concentration in China, creating new opportunities for America in science and technology leadership, a new attitude is taking hold. One that deemphasizes this type of "owning the libs" discourse that leads nowhere in rebuilding America to rebuilding America and also its European and Asian allies to prepare for a better, hope filled future. ...

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WSJ's reporters Meichtry, L, Pokharel, and Soon look at the extraordinary rise of Gautam Adani through his efforts to develop reclaimed land at Mundra port in the state of Gujarat. Adani who started with a small family owned plastics maker in Ahmedabad developed Mundra port around 2001 with the help of the Modi administration. Modi saw the electricity shortages in Gujarat as an opportunity to tackle India's chronic electricity shortages. Adani's early development of a deep water port at Mundra offered both Modi and Adani the opportunity to tackle the electricity shortages by bringing coal in large ships to Mundra in the way that China was already doing by 2005 in its own efforts at industrialization. So deeply immersed was India under the Congress Raj of licenses and closed economy that India's established business failed to see what China was doing to break into the ranks of industrialized nations. India's first prime minister Nehru had build a command economy where not much happened without government licenses and approval often riddled unwittingly with corruption. Modi needed someone outside the established companies operating under the Congress Raj command economy and with a vision of an India with abundant electricity to take the risks Chinese companies were taking to build an entirely new economy. By 2005 Guangzhou was importing coal with large ships from Indonesia and Australia. State owned companies moved slowly and would take years to develop the port capacity. Using China's example Modi pushed ahead with Adani on a rapid time delivery making Mundra a Special economic Zone and helping to connect Indian Railways to the port of Mundra for coal deliveries. Adani Enterprises built the thermal power plants near Mundra and build electricity transmission lines on a rapid mission mode giving Gujarat abundant electricity supplies and giving Gujarat state in northwestern India a great leap forward in the way China was already doing right in front of everyone's eyes by 2005 with world class ports built at Guangzhou, Shanghai, Shenzen, Hong Kong and logistics connections set with the help of Maersk.  Maersk is now doing the same for modern logistics in India in collaboration with the Modi administration.  Modi and the younger generation of aspirational youth in India see a New India that can break into the ranks of the largest industrialized nations with world class infrastructure in the way China has done, and use new technologies with innovation that will speed up the process in a way that the world has never seen. A quick look at Mundra Port in Wikipedia shows the timeline, It starts in 1998 when Adani Port Ltd was setup and Mundra port work began, 2002 the port integrated with Indian Railways, 2003 when it was made a Special Economic Zone by the Modi government in Gujarat, 2007 when IPO of 40 million shares at price band of around Rs 400 was done.  The Biden administration and the Trump administration support India's efforts to build a new modern economy with a rapid shift to renewable energy. As India is building the ports and logistics with the help of Maersk and other companies in the European Union, president Biden is working with prime minister Modi to build a new supply chain that removes the overconcentration of manufacturing and supply chain logistics in China. This means new ports with the latest technologies in India to handle shipment to the US and the EU. Jake Sullivan set out the goals for president Biden to accomplish this task in meetings with his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval this week on iCERT. President Biden and Republicans, Germany and the EU, see India as a critical part of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies, and the new supply chain. For the Adani Group the IPO pause offers an opportunity to do what Nirmala Sitharman has done in the Indian Budget this week- build a stable growth path ahead for the long term in line with India's Amrit Kal the next 25 years to centenary of freedom in 2047. Nirmala Sitharaman set a goal of rapid capital spending and investment increasing capital spending in 2023 by 33% in 2023 over 2022, yet maintaining a stable fiscal path by keeping the deficit below 6%. ...

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Russia has 600 billion dollars in reserves and with oil prices above $100, with the Ukraine conflict lifting oil prices for Russian oil exports, there is little that the US and Europe have done to prepare for this situation. The Merkel years were essentially wasted in building a trade based relationship on cheap Russian gas supplies, and the wasted resources under Bush and Obama in two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan only distracted the US from the major issues relating to China and Europe that it now faces. 

The need is for a new overall structure to be built- for social structure supporting all aspects of infrastructure, and stronger supply chains with local manufacturing. And international structures that include India and other nations of Asia and Latin America, Africa, that would be a framework for the future- a broader framework for peaceful relations.

 

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China is in isolation and in a freeze in ways that are unprecedented, that have never happened before. It has depressed world trade, disrupted supply chains of world trade, forced companies to restrict their employees movement, or bring them back home. Apple with 10,000 employees has closed operations and offices in China till Feb. 9. This is happening for many foreign companies in China as they deal with something they have never encountered before.  There is slowing down in demand fro crude oil as the lockdown affects the economy of China and world trade, Oil prices dropped 16% since the virus was detected. When the Sars virus happened in 2003 the Chinese economy was sixth in size in the world, now it is the second largest. At that time 7 million Chinese travelled abroad, today it is about 150 million, affecting international tourism. First quarter growth in China is now forecast by economists surveyed by WSJ at 4.9%, the lowest in decades. ...

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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Boosting vaccine production for the Indo-Pacific region that includes Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam with production done through Biological E in Hyderabad will be discussed at the meeting with Biden. Japan will fund the project, and Australia will handle the distribution. This will be part of a followup to a March 12 virtual meeting of Quad leaders. This effort to meet the vaccine supplies challenge for the Asian region covering south east Asia and its population of 600 million will be one of the major outcomes of Quad countries collaboration, making it a peacetime collaboration that supports development in the region without burdening the financial position of any country.  The other part of US- Indian collaboration and Quad collaboration centers on two related themes after healthcare and pandemic. The immediate challenge is to tackle the breakdown in the supply chain for semiconductors. The US and Europe can no longer depend entirely on a supply chain based in Taiwan. The narrowest part of the Taiwan Straits which separates Taiwan from the Chinese mainland is only 81 miles wide, which makes continued dependence on chip production on Taiwan an unreliable option and the need to build a new supply chain for Japan, EU and US. Plans will be made to address this in the talks. The Biden administration has already taken action with Intel Corp making a U turn and bringing chip manufacturing back home to the US with $50 billion investment planned. India and other Asian countries may form additional options for semiconductor manufacturing. The third part of the Quad effort will center on US and Japan ramping up infrastructure building capabilities with India to build infrastructure across Asian countries and in Africa that will be financed in a way that will not have some of the liabilities of the Chinese initiative called Belt and Road. Loans given by Chinese state banks and contracts including manpower from Chinese contractors are now seen as not meeting the needs of Asian and African countries. These loans most of the time cannot be repaid as in Zambia, and other parts of Africa, and in Pakistan, leading to interest accumulating on debt and making future infrastructure development extremely difficult. The use of manpower from China also means no learning curve for infrastructure is formed for local companies and infrastructure comes without new jobs jobs being created.  For most of the period 1900 -1950 the British built Asian and African infrastructure. During the period 1950 onwards the US assumed a major role, as did the Soviets. This changed after belligerent Reagan administration policies and wars in the Middle East sapped the funds that could have gone to infrastructure building that would improved living standards in Asia and Africa. Mr Biden wants to see this change and this is what he meant when he said at the UN General Assembly today- " we want relentless diplomacy to take the place of relentless wars." He means every word of this and the diplomacy is between allies and also adversaries, but mostly with allies such as Japan, the EU and India to build a better world. That he has to do this quickly Biden is aware of that, which is why he said "the next 10 years will determine our future."   ...

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Decades of investment in car manufacturing and EV's is paying off for China. It now exports 5.7 million cars of which 1.7 million are EV's. EV exports are twice that of Germany. Car production capacity in China surged as the Chinese market expanded to be larger than Europe and the US combined. The production capacity is twice the size of the domestic market- 40 million gasoline cars from 100 factories.  As domestic sales have slowed down there is a push for exporting this excess capacity. The US and the EU are imposing tariffs on Chinese cars to protect their domestic manufacturing. The push to become a leader dates back to premier Wen Jiabao 20003-2013. Wen chose Audi engineer Wan Gang as minister of science and technology, and gave him the task of making China the leader in electric vehicles. Manufacturers were given subsidies, tax breaks, cheap land and electricity. By one estimate the EV manufacturers and battery makers in China received $230 billion in subsidies since 2009.  This is one reason the EU and the US are imposing tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers. As the shift to EV's continues in China- half of the cars in 2024 EV's- the gasoline models are shipped overseas. China has now replaced the western brands in Russia with it's gasoline models.  China makes great savings in batteries as it controls the supply chain in batteries. It makes EV's at 30% lower cost with these efficiencies. ...

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"Trees not Warehouses" read signs protesting the building of more warehouse space in the US as residents protest the bringing of more noise, pollution and heavy duty trucks to their neighborhoods.Companies added over 1.5 billion square feet of new industrial space across the US from 2017, says this report in WSJ. A similar wave of building industrial space is taking place in Europe for warehouses. Communities from Pittsburgh to Madison, Wisconsin and neighborhoods in expanding logistics regions in Southern California and eastern Pennsylvania. Many say their communities are under siege. To get goods to people faster companies are still planning but have not made the shift to bringing construction back home or closer to home so that this kind of huge warehousing space is no longer needed. Much of this warehousing space may no longer be needed as more sustainable, more reliable,  shorter supply chains take the place of current ones that have concentrated all manufacturing in one country, China, at the hidden costs to local communities and companies. Through many hidden costs that have not been fully quantified in terms of quality of living in communities, loss of jobs and infrastructure through loss of tax revenues, carbon footprint of products shipped over thousands of miles, hidden logistics costs, rampant inflation in logistics costs, and significant loss of manufacturing knowhow that cannot be easily replaced. This is a result of decades of building such supply chains that no longer fit the needs of today. ...

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On the eve of 2024 elections on a scale never seen in the world from Rajasthan desert to Himalayan mountains to the sea, PM's site looks at the themes for development that have evolved into slogans and captured the imagination of India. Development For All, Development With All, is the "Sabka Vikas, Sabka Sath" slogan that has captured the imagination and vision of the young generation of Indians. For development at speed and scale to reach 2047 with the transformation of India into a modern nation with infrastructure and per capita incomes similar to the US, EU, China or Japan. 2047 is the centenary year marking 100 years of India as an independent nation. In the interview with ANI shown alongside PM Modi discusses the problems of modernization of a region of immense diversity, history, and cultures. 2047 providing a point of focus for achieving the transformation, a transformation that is being taken up with the cooperation and support of the US and the European Union that are building a new supply chain which integrates India as a major manufacturing nation . ...

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The supply chain chaos that is not good for American or European companies is shown here and how it is good only for warehouses that store these products for long periods. In March just 7% of the sea shipments from Asia to North America arrived on time, for Europe this was just 6%. This WSJ report says even big companies can expect to pay 5 times the freight rate than in 2019. New trouble looms in the form of more lockdowns in China with its zero covid policy and wage negotiations with dockworkers in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Stockpiling is one way to ensure availability which means additional costs. Vacancy rates for logistics property are at 4% in the US and 3.5% in Europe. All this points to the need for reshoring and bringing manufacturing back home. Companies need to invest $1 trillion over 5 years to relocate all foreign manufacturing based in China that is for markets in US, Europe and other parts of the world. As companies make plans for the shift to bring manufacturing back home, half the money going into real estate is still going to logistics properties and industrial logistics in the meantime, says this WSJ report ...

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The world is too dependent on one semiconductor manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, TSMC. Companies in Taiwan make 65% of the dollar value of the world's chips. How did this happen? It poses a threat to the US and to the world economy. Finally the US is making an effort to correct this. The European Union already has plans to produce 20% of the world's next generation chips in 2030. Intel plans $20 billion investment for 2 chip factories in the US. Only months earlier this report in WSJ says Intel president Bob Swan was giving more contracts to TSMC for next generation chips.  It shows how much the pandemic has changed views on supply chain security. Intel ousted Mr. Swan for missteps in relying too much on TSMC as this dangerous policy became evident during the pandemic. Such was the culture that existed before the pandemic on supply chains, on investment allocation, and related issues. As a single semiconductor factory can cost $20 billion, the Biden administration is getting involved with Congress to rebuild America's semiconductor industry and independent supply chain. TSMC is built on subsidies from Taiwan government. Morris Chang founded TSMC in 1987 after studying at MIT and working 30 years at Texas Instruments. At founding half of the investment for TSMC came from Taiwan government. The US to rebuild will require the government to support the chip industry in many ways. In this sense the US manufacturers who ceded manufacturing to TSMC were shortsighted- AMD, Intel, Qualcomm Apple. They without realizing it built the model on which TSMC would thrive and invest and grow. Take just one example- to meet Apple's first order TSMC spent $9 billion with 6000 people working round the clock to build a factory in 11 months. Yes Apple did not have to worry about chip manufacturing and quality by contracting it out. Yet over the years it was ceding the manufacture of the most important chips in its products to an exclusive supplier. It was also ceding away the technologies that went with it. Americans were told not to care by the best universities and professors, by economic departments and scientific educational institutions for two decades leading to the situating facing America today. Meanwhile Taiwan is supporting its chip industry even further as it relies on the chip industry to provide protection in its struggle to maintain its independence from China. A situation no American manufacturer understands or had planned to create, but is now left to the Biden administration and president Biden to solve. After twenty years of unchecked capital allocation and investments by the leaders of American manufacturing based on an inadequate and incomplete understanding of the role of manufacturing and manufacturing technologies in the life of America since its founding two hundred years ago, president Biden faces the task of restoring confidence in America. And this at the time of a pandemic that has taken hundreds of thousands of lives.      ...

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One of the good things after the pandemic is that people are going to spend more time in their home countries instead of travelling overseas, says this report in the DW.com. World tourism has grown too quickly and too fast in the last two decades. Places everywhere are becoming extremely congested. I remember visits to Paris, to Notre Dame cathedral and its surroundings, in the eighties and nineties and compare them to two decades later with regret that it has changed for the worse. By 2010 everyplace looked different, transport, hotels, streets were so congested as to make trips less exciting and less fun to do.  The question posed here is whether having 3 million less people travelling around the world is such a bad thing? It says the tourism industry has grown so quickly and so fast that it poses a danger to the environment, to the quiet of neighborhoods and cities, driving a commodities culture. As this writer says it drives locals away from the cities they have lived in for generations, and robs those who stay of the quiet lives they have enjoyed. In fact once the cities experienced so much less pollution during gradual reopening, and streets had less traffic, a lot of people turned to use bicycles. Bicycle lanes were replacing car traffic lanes. A return to calmer living with enjoyment of one's own neighborhoods and cities, and travel within one's own country, is becoming an attractive alternative. People now remember that it was the huge amount of airline traffic that spread the pandemic from cities in Asia to cities in Europe, and cities in America. It also spread quickly through tourist destinations inside Asia and Africa, and Latin America. Even some of the early clusters in Germany, Italy and the U.S. had their origins in the the spread of globalized supply chains in China, Germany, and Italy for automobiles. Auto industry business people traveled to places in or near Wuhan, then to Bavaria, and on to northern Italy in the global supply chain for automobile manufacturing.  As new nations like China and India with billions of people are added to world tourism this changes everything in a way never imagined before. This pandemic gives one a pause to rethink whether it was a good idea in the first place to seek fulfilment by travel outside one's own country, without first exploring it and one's own neighborhoods in a quieter setting. We travel to new places seeking fulfillment. There comes a time when the tourism today has become so big that it is not sustainable, safe or economical anymore. A rethink and new habits make sense.     ...

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Housing construction makes up a fourth of China's economy. Chinese government is leery of the huge buildup of debt at housing developer companies in China. Banks are involved with their loans to housing developer companies. Some of these bank loans are nonperforming and this percentage of bad debt is growing. It was always a sense of someday this would stop working. That someday may be today. Efforts are being made to tighten controls on these companies and their way of doing business- raising cash from presold apartments from millions of householders who have accumulated their savings for a speculative investment in a second or third apartment or fulfilling a dream of first home ownership. For two decades it worked as the Chinese economy with the aid of US and European Union transfer of technology and capital grew rapidly. With the US and European Union changing policies and building new supply chains in the competition with China, and China entering the period of a mature economy with less room for growth as Japan did in the 1990's, this buildup of debt  has ominous overtones. Chinese government is making an effort to regulate the housing sector to reduce any potential damage to the economy. The result could be a repeat of the way the Japanese economy after growing rapidly in the period 1960 -1985 slowed rapidly after 1987. ...

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The title is misplaced- does India have an edge with development in Uttar Pradesh after many administrations since Jawaharlal Nehru's time in his home city of Allahabad. Can water and electricity, Jal Jeevan and Swacch Bharat (Clean India) make a difference in India's largest state. Is development for all impartially given, funds impartially allocated indifference shown to caste and religious lines for delivery of services by the state and federal governments? India and China were at about the same place in 1990 as both countries opened up- can India close the gap. Can Indians stretch the imagination to set stretch goals like China has done. Most of the Indians who fail to stretch the imagination fail to remember that Beijing was mostly filled with bicycles for transport during 1990. China remained undaunted in 1990, she persevered against all the odds. So must India. In the US and European Union competition with China it looks to India for restructuring the supply chain. Is Uttar Pradesh a good place for domestic and foreign investment? Water and electricity goals are being achieved in Uttar Pradesh. Fundamental to development is the rule of law, as this sets the basis for development. Adequate infrastructure, a clean India, is what creates a good climate for investment from outside the state and from other countries such as Japan, the US and Germany. Uttar Pradesh now has the potential to lead the way.    ...

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China is building a port hub at Chancay that will have an initial 1.5 million TEU or twenty foot long containers capacity. It will be opened by president Xi in November. This megaport will cut the time it takes from South American coastline to Shanghai from 35 days to 25 days. Before this port China trade was conducted through Long Beach or Manzanillo in Mexico. China is now Brazil's largest trading partner and this port offers the possibility of connecting further from Brazil to Peru by land. This does pose new challenges such as crossing the Andes mountains and Brazilian jungle. The port will cost COSCO China's large shipping company $3.5 billion. China has invested in 100 foreign seaports with $30 billion over 2 decades. The port of Piraeus is operated by Chinese companies, and China has invested in a stake in the port of Hamburg, Germany which is the main gateway for Chinese exports into the EU. The US neglected Latin America and India during the three decades in which Reagan and Bush Sr, Bush Jr, engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan wasting trillions of dollars, neglecting infrastructure investment in the US, and in Latin America and India. Over two decades the US has invested by comparison trillions of dollars in wars in Iraq starting with Reagan and Weinberger, Bush Sr. in the 1980's, and Bush junior in Afghanistan. Much of the oil dividend of the Middle East wasted by regimes in the region in wars. Not only the US infrastructure was starved of resources, Latin America, India and Indonesia did not receive the investment these countries needed for rapid development. Yet today Reagan and Bush are lauded for their contribution by Baker in WSJ today and by columnists in the NYT. The fall of the Berlin Wall was itself just an episode in the US relations with Russia as Russia and China are competing with the US. Germany itself of the Berlin Wall remains divided (with AfD popular in the East around Dresden), and Germany divided on pursuing policies that lead to worsening relations with Russia. Germany also maintains a strong trading relationship with China including a stake in Hamburg port given to China during the pandemic at a time when the supply chain over concentration in China was being questioned in US, EU, India. ...