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World Bank projections of Indian growth rate are lowered from 6.6% to 5.8% because of DJT US administration's 50% tariff on imports from India. "It is in America’s national interest, then, for South Asia, and especially India, to grow at a rapid clip. That would create a counterweight in Asia to China’s massive economic and military expansion." This is the opinion of the Editorial Board of The Washington Post. It goes on to say that -  "But Trump is determined to negotiate a grand trade bargain with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, so he didn’t impose secondary sanctions on their purchases of Russian crude.Trump wants U.S. trade policy to be more self-interested, but it doesn’t serve America’s strategic interests to strengthen China’s position relative to its neighbors. At some level, the administration surely knows this." The Washington Post has identified a basic flaw in the US policy towards India. Both parties in America have fallen into a trap of believing that first Japan, then China with accelerated economic expansion in the 1920's and 30's and in the 2000's and 2010's  are not going to run into issues with such expansion, this being the military and the separation from US economic cooperation that enabled the economic expansion of both Asian countries. Another aspect is that in 1950 China was similar in size of economy to India at 1.18, in 1903 and in 1962 at 1.18, and the gap between China and India is only a story of the last 2 decades. By 2047 India surely has the potential to close this gap with economic and technological integration with the US and European economies that were the pillars of China's economic expansion in an earlier period.  There are other aspects of culture and size- The Bhagavad Gita and the Bible provided Gandhi with an integrated view of western civilization. With its interactions and adoption of western institutions and government, of law, the new Indian state and its neighbor Indonesia represent 1.7 billion people in Asia, with Japan and the Philippines 2 billion people twice the size of China.   ...

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Todd Schlanger, senior investment strategist at Vanguard, is cited in this WSJ report saying the 60-40 strategy makes sense now because of lower stock valuations and higher bond yields. His forecast for Vanguard for a 60% stocks and 40% bonds globally diversified strategy is for a annualized 10 year median return of 5.4%. Schlanger says 60-40 strategy used to be a bellwether, and that strategy is an enduring strategy.

Stock valuations that Schlanger says are lower are reflected in the S&P 500 which is trading at 18.2 times its expected earnings over the next 12 months, down from 21.6 at the start of 2022. The 10 year average is 17.5.

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This report in the NYT says US officials now say Russia was not involved in the attack on the Nordstream pipelines in the Baltic Sea. The pipeline was connecting Russian oil and gas undersea to Germany and generated revenue for Russia, cost $12 billion each to build for Nordstream 1 and 2, so that it would have no reason to sabotage its own pipeline, say US officials. Cost of repairing the pipeline would be over $500 million.  Nordstream I and 2 stretch across the Baltic sea from Russia to Lubmin, Germany for 760 miles under the sea. Nordstream 1 completed in 2011 cost $12 billion to make, with a similar amount for Nordstream 2 completed over American objections in 2021 by the Merkel government in Germany. American officials are still reviewing the intelligence to understand how it happened. Just as happened for the spy balloons over the US initial reports and speculation have turned out to be misleading. It shows the importance of getting all the facts right, more than ever.   ...

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The NYT covers the GAESA tourism enterprise of Cuba (that operates independent of the government of Cuba) that overinvested in Tourism at the expense of agriculture industry and infrastructure during the Obama administration, leading to collapse with Trump's 2014 embargo on Cuba. GAESA controls about 50% of Cuba's economy, run by military and people from Castro's family.  That left 121 hotels built in the boom years of tourism at 30 percent occupancy. The Iberostar high rise hotel is one of these hotels that rises over dilapidated housing in Havana, the Cuban capital. The investment in tourism by the GAESA enterprise that runs about 50% of the Cuban economy is 13 times what is spent on healthcare and education, says the NYT. The Castro family, Raul Castro family, runs this business venture that was started when the Soviet Union as sponsor of Cuba had collapsed by 1991. The NYT says this 'devolved' the ideas and promise of the revolution. "Devolved?" What kind of word to describe a complete loss of faith, and enormous failure with severe hardship for the Cuban people? It means the whole idea of communism or Marxist revolution has been proven false, even as it survives in Mexico and parts of Latin America. One can be against the Batista regime- similarly against corrupt regimes in Latin America or Asia- that ruled Cuba before the Castro Cuban revolution and still look for better choices and alternatives than what Castro came up with as an answer to Cuba's needs. Much of Latin America is suffering from the same problems of dictatorships and turning to Marxist alternatives - particularly the alternative put forward by Castro in Cuba- that has also destroyed the Venezuelan economy with Chavez's turn to Castro's Cuban revolutionary slogans and ideology. That came up with temporary solutions for the poorer sections of society, yet failed badly for all sections of society in the long term. How else can one explain one fourth of Venezuela's population and about the same of Cuba's leaving the country, some of those who left the critical human capital that would form the core of the human input to combine with capital and technology for advancing the economy. If Cuba were like the Dominican Republic or other parts of the Caribbean to depend on tourism for its national income then would it not be better to have friendly relations with the US, the main source of tourism revenue. The Obama administration was only holding up a failed idea by holding out a helping hand to tourism in Cuba knowing full well that a change to a Republican administration would simply lead to heavy investments in tourism at the neglect of infrastructure, public services and the economy, of health and education, to become large economic losses. This is what has happened.  As China and India have proven and are proving there are no magical ways to economic development- the same route that was traveled by the nations of Northern and Western Europe with scientific advances, technological advances, have to be taken, the same route that was traveled by the US in its industrial revolution and building of infrastructure, that same route has to be taken by all nations. It does not have to take a time period of centuries as in Europe. The US accomplished it faster with new technologies and vast human and natural resources over 100 years, Japan in 50 years, China in 30 years. India in 25 years ongoing.There is room for intelligent solutions to problems, for speed and tapping into new technologies, yet the same inputs of land, labour, capital and technology have to be put together for development. For states or regions, cities, within China and India, the same inputs, the same access to foreign investment and new technologies is the only route to rapid development. Long range plans are set in motion, decades of stable efficient, clean governance is put in place, and alliances are built with the nations of Europe and with the US. This road is traversed though hard work as Japan and China have done, and India today is thoroughly engaged in. ...

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Reilly raises the question why asset allocation decisions of the type made by JP Morgan Chase since 2008, does not make it similiar to a mutual fund or a hedge fund, and why this should itself not be considered a form of proprietary trading. JP Morgan Chase had $600 million of corporate debt in its overall debt portfolio or 1% in 4th quarter 2006. By end of 2008 this increased to 5% or $10 billion. By end of 2009, this went up to 17% of the portfolio or $62 billion, and they are at that level today. The holdings of non-U.S. residential mortgage securities was also increased, going up to 20% of holdings or $75 billion at end of 1st quarter 2012, from $2 billion or 1% of the portfolio in 2008. Corporate debt holdings at Bank of America at the end of the 1st quarter of 2012 were about 1% or $2.4 billion, and at Citigroup were about 4.5% or $12 billion. The Chief Investment Office unit of JP Morgan handles this portfolio, which is the result of deposits of $1.12 trillion exceeding loans of $700 billion. The low interest rate environment after 2008 creates incentives for banks to look for ways to improve crimped margins and in the process adding risk....

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Simon Nixon points to two large capital gaps Spain's government faces for Bankia. Spain was not prepared for the events of the last month as it took control of Bankia. The agreement to convert 4.5 billion of preference shares into equity gives it 100% of Bankia parent, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, and 45% of Bankia. The capital gaps Spain faces for Bankia comes from expected loan losses which it has been slow to deal with. BFA-Bankia's real estate loan losses are estimated at 52 billion euros. Capital provisions for this are only 11%. J.P. Morgan estimates another 4.9 billion euros will be needed under new government rules. But these rules do not reflect all the losses if real estate loans are written off and and other loans are correctly shown as nonperforming, and other corporate loan provisions are increased. When this is done total losses would in reality be about 12% of the 190 billion euro loans at BFA-Bankia or 22.8 billion euros, according to experts. To correctly deal with this would require $15 billion euros, in addition to the 4.9 billion euros, for a total of 19.9 billion euros. The other capital gap comes from BFA's capital carried on books at 12 billion euros, the pre-IPO value. This has been shrinking rapidly to 5.5 billion euros at 2011 end, and is now down to 2.8 billion euros. This could mean another capital gap of 5 billion euros, depending on to whether shareholders are wiped out. Bankia has 350,000 private shareholders and it will be important to maintain depositor confidence. The total is close to 25 billion euros in capital gap for BFA-Bankia that the Spanish government must face up to quickly. It does not stop there because there are other cajas savings banks and other banks that will have to be taken into account- too large a loss would mean losing market confidence and poorer access to financial markets. ...

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The ruble plunges from 83 to the dollar to 111 for its largest single day fall on record on Feb. 27, following the swift American and European response to the Ukraine invasion. The Bank of Russia raised interest rates to 20% from 9.5%. The situation is reminiscent of August 1998 when the government devalued the ruble and suspended payments on debts, leading to collapse of the banking system. That situation led to emergence of Mr. Putin as the Russian economy was stabilized in the years following the collapse. By acting quickly with sanctions on Russia's central bank and on its other banks the trade in the ruble has essentially seized. Russia this WSJ report says may default on its debt as it would not be able to use its $600 billion in foreign currency reserves to support the ruble or its banking system, pay off outstanding debt payments.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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The severe impact of sanctions on availability of car parts in Russia is shown here in this Guardian report. Few industries are impacted by Russia's total isolation as the car industry says this report. Car sales in Russia have dropped by 84% according to the Association for European Business and car prices are up 50%. Import substitution is not working for the car industry say experts. The owner of a car repair firm in Moscow says speculation for car parts is rampant with parts cost up by 800% and original oil up 1000%. Reports show counterfeit or stolen parts flooding the market. The airline industry is also impacted by the severe shortage of aircraft parts. One Russian pilot says there are enough aircraft wheels and pads for one month maximum. A manager of Sukhoi Superjet says he gives the Russian airline industry one year if nothing changes. Safety concerns of pilots are being ignored says one pilot. Parts are being cannibalized from older planes for new ones to keep them running. With the nation's automobile and airline industries affected in this way the quality of living is affected in Russia only 3 months into this war. Having a large inflow of revenues from oil and gas for the 6-12 month period that it takes Europe to respond, and a large reserve fund of about $610 billion is not a real reflection of the strength of a country. In today's interconnected system of supply chain no degree of industrial strength would allow a nation to wage war through invasion with impunity without finding itself in severe difficulties for the quality of life in the country as the world community responds. The response is to prevent the wrong lessons being drawn by one nation using full scale war to occupy another nation and getting away with it.    ...

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These are key provisions in the biggest climate change bill in history- Tax credits that last for over a decade for zero carbon plants- these tax credits go to companies that build new sources of emissions free electricity, for wind turbines, solar panels, battery storage, geo thermal plants. Tax credits also for new technologies that capture and bury carbon dioxide from natural gas plants and industrial facilities before it escapes into the atmosphere and heats the planet. This technology is rarely used because of high costs. Incentives for electric vehicles- It extends a tax credit of $7500 for new electric vehicles. It adds a $4000 tax credit for used electric vehicles. Tax credit goes only to people earning $150,000 a year (300,000 for joint filers) for new EV's and $75,000 (150,000 for joint filers) for used EV's. Help for people to lower energy costs - $9 billion in rebates for Americans installing energy efficient electrical appliances. And a decade of tax credits for Americans installing rooftop solar, heat pumps, water heaters and electric HVAC, or electric heating, air conditioning and ventilation technologies. Investments in Domestic Manufacturing- $60 billion for investments in clean energy manufacturing in the US. This includes $30 billion for production tax credits for solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and critical minerals processing. $10 billion in investment tax credits to build manufacturing facilities for electric cars and renewable energy technologies. This action is to halt the shifting of clean energy manufacturing overseas to China. $27 billion towards a green bank that would finance clean energy projects in disadvantaged communities. Cracking down on Methane- the bill places a fine on methane gas emissions from oil and gas wells and pipelines and other infrastructure. Fees of $900 per metric ton in 2024 and $1500 a metric ton in 2026 when it exceeds federally set limits.    ...

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Figures from Kiel Institute for World Economy show that European Union aid to Ukraine is nearly double that of the US- $187 billion for EU to $98 billion for US aid. The American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank also confirms EU aid is significantly higher. Trump said US was $250 billion to European Union $100 billion- completely the reverse of the facts. This is one aspect of the debate with Harris that was not fact checked to reach the 67 million watching immediately similar to the FBI correction on crime rates by David Muir.   "Look, we’re in for $250 billion or more because they don’t ask Europe, which is a much bigger beneficiary to getting this thing done than we are. They’re in for $150 billion less because Biden and you don’t have the courage to ask Europe like I did with NATO. They paid billions and billions, hundreds of billions of dollars when I said either you pay up or we’re not going to protect you anymore. So that may be one of the reasons they don’t like me as much as they like weak people. But you take a look at what’s happening. We’re in for $250 to $275 billion. They’re into $100 to $150. They should be forced to equalize.”   ...

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Latest data from the U.S. Treasury shows it has collected $63 billion in tariffs over the preceding 12 months. Even though there is no agreement on trade with China, president Trump says the U.S. is benefitting from higher tariffs by tens of billions of dollars. In May he estimated tariff revenues could reach $100 billion.This report in the WSJ says this could happen if the the new tariffs of 10% on additional $300 Chinese goods imported to U.S. goes into effect on September 1. This is likely considering that China sees this in different terms than the U.S. such as its sovereignty, whereas the U.S. sees it simply in terms of fair trade. With new elections China may be simply putting things off till the election is decided as Mr. Trump has pointed out. The tally of what the U.S. Treasury gets annually if $100 billion is generated in tariffs goes something like this. Of this $30 billion was generated previously for the U.S. government, so the incremental amount is $70 billion. Of this about $16 billion goes to offset the effect of loss of farm exports to farmers, mainly soyabeans exports to China, through a rescue fund. This leaves additional $54 billion for the U.S. Treasury. Money that could conceivably be put back into infrastructure that the U.S. badly needs in mobile and fixed to improve internet speeds and move up from its low rankings compared to China and other countries. A WSJ report this week shows Germany in worse shape than the U.S., both countries having dismal status in mobile infrastructure- the U.S. at No. 37, and Australia No. 4, Canada No. 3, and even Croatia No. 9. This throws some light on why this trade dispute has become intractable, for China the right of a sovereign nation to move past middle income status even as its telecom technology with Huawei 5G is top class, and for the U.S. the right not to fall behind in advanced technologies such as Telecom. It is also why one hears so much about Huawei and why it has become a flashpoint of the conflict in trade and trade practices. It is thought Mr. Trump is conducting this trade dispute. Yet less known is the fact that prominent Republicans in Congress such as Senator Warner have stated on television talk shows that they are concerned Mr. Trump may give up too much in negotiations that lead to the U.S. not being able to compete in telecom advanced technologies that matter for competitiveness and for national security. What was treated by Bush and Obama administrations routinely without much attention to the consequences is now a top concern for Republicans and others in Congress and business. ...

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The campaign in German schools "Smart ohne phone" or "Smart without a phone"  for school children in 2025. One student at Dalton High School in Alsdorf, North Rhine Westphalia, Klara Ptak, is cited in this report by  Oliver Pieper in DW.com. Klara 17 years old says- "A total of 51 phones were seized — that's a fairly significant number considering we have 700 students. And you can really see a difference, especially in the younger kids. They used to stand around in a circle staring at their screens, and now they are playing football, badminton, or board games together. It's a dramatic shift." A survey by the Körber Foundation, and pollster Forsa, says that parents of children ages 12 to 18 complain that their children's time spent on social media is out of control and is their leading source of stress. The German National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina is for banning phones upto tenth grade, it wants to keep children under 13 away from the internet for social media completely. It is interesting to note that the younger student are fine with it and adapted quickly seeing the benefits. This shows that a new generation of student can be trained for a different lifestyle. Today in the Washington Post Linda McMahon and RFK Jr. team up on an article saying just this that time spent on screens lifestyles along with nutrition and food fail school children badly, reminding people about the saying in Latin since the 2nd Century by poet Juvenal -"a healthy mind in a healthy body." ( Latin -"mens sana in corpore sano").   ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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As the first military plane with 100 deportees from the US lands in Amritsar in the Punjab state, there is this reflection in India on why migrants decide to come mostly from Gujarat and Punjab two of India's prosperous states, and Gujarat a centre for industrial development under Vikshit Bharat 2047. Modi visits Washington Feb 12 for meetings with DJT.  Times of India says agencies that track illegal migrants report 90,415 migrants illegally entered the US from Mexico or Canada between October 2023 to Sept 2024. Half of the 90,415 migrants were from Gujarat. The two leading states for migrants are Punjab, Gujarat followed by Haryana, UP and Maharashtra.  In the Punjab this report shows business communities and urban professionals as part of the illegal migrant flow looking for better life- for reasons of governance, and social security, including people from well to do families. And not for reasons of job scarcity. And this is changing demographis with decline in population in Punjab with it being made up by migration from Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Bihar states into Punjab.     ...

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The Guardian provides this first account of what happened in the Galwan Valley border between India and China at the Line of Actual Control. It is described as the worst fighting in 60 years. On the high steep ridge lines above the rapidly moving Galwan River a patrol of Indian soldiers encountered Chinese troops in a steep section of a high mountainous region. They believed the PLA Chinese Army had withdrawn from the ridge in line with a June 6 disengagement agreement. The Indian government says that what happened afterwards was pre-meditated ambush by the PLA forces. In the fighting that ensued the Indian commanding officer was pushed from the narrow ridge falling to the gorge below. Reinforcements from the Indian side were called from a post 2 miles away and about 600 men were fighting in near total darkness in high mountain ridge with stones iron rods for upto 6 hours. Following a decades long tradition to avoid escalation of hostilities because of nuclear weapons of both countries the two sides have not used other weapons. Most deaths on both sides were from soldiers falling or being knocked from mountain ridges. The main problem in the conflict is the Line of Actual Control exists but since China's takeover of Tibet in 1950 there is no agreement that has set the official border. The British Simla agreement in 1912 set the border with Tibet in an agreement between Tibet and the British Empire in India, when Tibet was an independent country. China claims that historically going back to Ming and Qing dynasty Tibet was part of its region. For most of its history Tibet was an autonomous region with closer contacts with India because it is close to Nepal and Nepal is very near the Indian Bihar state border.  A new rail link from Raxaul, Bihar in India to Kathmandu is only 137 kilometres, and from Kathmandu to the Tibet border is only 205 kilometres. Fast rail or road links would put Tibet within a few hours by rail or road to Tibet from India. For the entire period the US exists as a nation about 250 years and from the first landing of the colonists on American shores about 1607 Tibet was a mountainous region that was so remote that few people even knew about the country's existence. Beijing and Shanghai are four thousand kilometres away, India much closer to Tibet through Kathmandu, Nepal and India sharing a common culture, and no one thought much about the mountainous borders at 15000- 20,000 feet in the western Himalayas, till China's takeover of Tibet in 1950. India had no clear idea what this meant in 1950- no clear border except for what was agreed between the Tibetan independent government  and the British in 1912 which was set under the British Empire- resulting in a fluid border. And China had no clear idea that this would put in a place it would not want to be thousands of miles from the Yangtse valley region home to most of China's population, in a remote mountain region at heights of 15,000 -20,000 feet, with little to gain. Throughout history since 1000 and earlier Tibet remained a region that acted as a buffer between China's western provinces and India, the high mountains at 15,000- 20,000 feet making it inaccessible. Which is why the Ganges plains and the Yangtse river valley plains contact was made more through the oceans than by land, and the areas developing distinctly different language and cultures. All this changed after 1954 when the Qinghai Tibet highway was built, the closest city on the Chinese side is Xining. Xining to Tibet is a distance of about 2000 kilometres at an average height of 4500 metres or about 14,000 feet.  ...

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There is a surge in online classes and web based learning by 2017. About 36 million people in the U.S. who have some college but no degree benefit from these classes. The low overhead and value of these classes is making colleges move ahead with investment in this field. Arizona State, University of Massachusetts, are some of the universities pushing ahead. Purdue University as part of its "You Can, Go Back" initiative under president Mitch Daniels,is planning to acquire Kaplan University to supplement its efforts. 2U which runs online school programs has revenue growth of 30% a year. It runs marketing and the web platform, nuts and bolts, while schools provide faculty, in a unique collaborative effort. Colorado State University Global Campus went from 200 students to 18,000 half from Colorado, with only a $12 million loan from the University in 2007, which it paid back by 2012, showing the financial viability of these classes. 

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Eurobarometer Survey conducted by the European Commission on what people say about staying inside the European Union show increasing support inside the UK and inside member countries of the EU. In a survey done in March 2019, Eurobarometer Survey involving 1000 people in each of the 28 countries of the EU shows 53% of respondents in the UK supporting Remaining in the European Union, 35% Leave , and 12% undecided. Asked whether Britain had made the right choice to leave the EU in the referendum 54% of respondents said Britain made the wrong choice, only 38% said yes. There is a definite shift in sentiment that reflects the way the changes in the EU since the referendum was held- with only a trickle of immigration to Europe and now return of some refugees to their home countries, economic aid to African countries to reduce migrants. The economies of Europe that struggled through austerity policies such as Spain have show strong growth of 3% over 3 years, and of Portugal and Greece recovering. News at the time of austerity policies, uncontrolled immigration to Europe, affected public sentiment at the time of Britain's first referendum on EU membership. In the EU countries there is a definite upturn in sentiment- 66% would vote to remain in the EU, only 17% would vote to leave. The chaoic Brexit process in the UK has also led to the upturn. 68% of respondents in the EU countries said their countries had benefited from membership in the European Union, the largest support seen in 25 years. ...

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President Trump extends the U.S. lockdown for social distancing till April 30, on the advice of health experts. China meanwhile resumes industrial production and schools reopen. Factories, offices and retail outlets were shutdown for 2 months nearly nationwide in China. The U.S. has a social distancing lockdown not a complete quarantine of hotspots such as New York, New Jersey. Mr. Trump planned to quarantine New York but faced opposition from the governors of New York and New Jersey, including possible legal challenges. U.S. governors have acted imposing travel restrictions to their states from hotspots in other places in the country, forcing people traveling to self-isolate, stopping vehicles with out of state license plates and asking them to stay away. The U.S. cases have jumped from 100 in early March to 143,000 as of March 28, 2020, and 2514 deaths, according to John Hopkins. New estimates from president Trump and his team of experts are for the peak to be reached by April 15, and recovery gradually taking place by June 1, 2020. Based on the timeline in China shown below the time from the first set of 27 cases by December 15 to March 28 when China's factories were back to work and schools reopened across the country, is a period of 75 days. Based on this president Trump's timeline of June 1 for recovery has some foundation. China quarantined strictly compared to the U.S. yet in the early days it had no warning which the U.S. had in particular from Italy. The Trump administration by extending social distancing and lockdown restrictions till April 30 without a strict quarantine of the East coast areas yet with states outside imposing their own restrictions for outsiders, is doing what other countries such as China, South Korea, have to control this epidemic. The first coronavirus case was reported on November 17, 2019 according to the South China Morning Post, By December 15, the number of cases had reached 15. On December 27 on a single day 180 cases were recorded and the Head of the Respiratory Department at Hubei Provincial Hospital reported this to health authorites in China, according to the South China Morning Post, based on data collected in China.   ...

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With a redrawing of the tech map and where the jobs are tech jobs shift to mainstream manufacturing, health, banking and retail, says this report in the NYT. These companies invest steadily in tech jobs but did not go into manic hiring sprees in the way Amazon or Alphabet once did. Overall employment in tech occupations increased to 6.39 million in November 2022, a 12% increase over the prior year. Chase, Amex, Nike, Wal-Mart and General Motors offer more stability for tech workers. Overall US tech workers increased from about 3 million workers in 2000 to over double that in 2022. Unemployment is at 2% for tech workers compared to 3.7% for workers overall. The problems at Alphabet and Amazon and layoffs are making it easier for mainstream retail and banking companies to hire tech workers. Chase Bank alone has over 50,000 tech workers.

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Distorted priorities from the last 2 decades and lack of investment allocation for healthcare are hurting states in the U.S at a critical time. With 16 million cases of coronavirus and 300,000 deaths in December, including over 3000 deaths a day by December 12, the situation is dire. Yet states lack the billions needed to conduct the vaccination program to pay for the trucks, get the refrigeration and storage, pay the nurses and the medical personnel, outreach costs, and other costs for a massive vaccination program. Some estimates are that states need about $9 billion for the vaccination programs. New York alone needs $1 billion. For years billions of dollars were wasted in distorted priorities that benefited certain groups at the expense of society as a whole. The very large companies that benefited paid little or no taxes. 

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Much of the growth in 2022-2024 was a result of Biden administration government spending on infrastructure supported by private sector spending. With efforts to cut waste and set new priorities in government spending, growth in 2025-2026 has to come from private sector spending with the DJT administration. The tariffs in the first 100 days are seen by business as a bargaining chip. Scott Bessent has described the tariffs as domestic policy, and president DJT has stated clearly that the tariffs against CMC countries, Canada, Mexico and China, is intended to stop the flow of fentanyl into the US. The scale of the fentanyl issue can be seen from the 490,000 American deaths over 12 years from fentanyl.  It is incumbent on CMC countries to take action on fentanyl. It is also incumbent on the CMC countries and on the EU, on opinion in business and the Silicon Valley in the US, to grasp the real dimensions of this crisis destroying so many lives, that is so unprecedented in the history of the US.   ...

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The House passes the $819 billion tax and spending bill. Every Republican in the House voted against the bill in the 244-188 vote. Most of the money to be spent of about $526 billion will be spent in 2009 and 2010, though some spending on student loan programs, clean water projects and housing assistance will carry over into future years. To help workers with the downturn $27 billion will go to continue unemployment insurance benefits till December 31, 2009. $9 billion will go to increase the current benefit from $300 to $325 per week. This is money that will be spent as workers lose jobs. The bill also lets former employees to get COBRA coverage, It funds 65% of individual's premiums for upto 12 months. And workers over 55 or with more than 10 years service will get to keep their COBRA coverage until they get a new job or get Medicare. A big departure is allowing those who are unemployed enroll in Medicaid, and Medicaid will temporarily expand to include millions of unemployed workers. See the link to Education spending for the $125 billion going into Education spending that will save the jobs of hundreds of thousands of teachers and create jobs for construction as schools are repaired and renovated....

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US Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed by DJT and Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian, May 17 2026, with Pakistan as mediator. Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt and Qatar tried to bring the two sides together within Iran the RGC Revolutionary Guard Corps military and the president elected in 2024 (to tackle cost of living and other economic issues). and narrow their differences with the US. A key factor was China and the US president called China's actions "fantastic" in achieving the signed agreement to work out the details within 60-90 days of talks. Without China's help in imports and other assistance Iran's economy would be hard to sustain. China's own interests are best served by maintaining peace in the region as it continues to develop and modernize its economy. Russia also supported the agreement. Another contributor was India by setting an example for modernization and economic development as the true pathway for the people of West Asia, by bringing UAE, Egypt and other Arab nations in North Africa such as Morocco together in the direction of economic development and showing that cooperation in the region including with Israel is the best way forward. From the perspective of long term future of the region the presence of Modi and India at the G-7 meeting next to Macron and DJT shows there is now a G-8, with India joining Japan as two key Asian nations in the G-8. In this way the administration has achieved something that was never possible in either the old G-8 (that included Russia) under previous administrations after 2000. DJT's meeting with Putin in Alaska, and his visit to Beijing for discussions with Xi Jinping in 2025 and 2026, achieved the G-8 setting with India plus keeping China and Russia fully engaged in separate one on one arranged talks. This is a rare feat achieved in 2026 for the US, China, India and Russia, EU, Germany, that has never been done before to the lasting credit of the leaders DJT, president Xi, prime minister Modi, president Putin, and chancellor Merz- to their patience even in times of disagreement, their efforts to persevere when times were rough, and their foresight and wisdom in seeking agreement around what they shared in common.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
There are problems with TikTok as social media app that are shown under The Enemy Within in Movement for Global Literacy of Lyrarc.com that relate to global literacy of children spending many hours on the app taking time away from homework and reading, when over half of American children 12-18  perform below basic requirements on reading proficiency tests. Similar loss of reading comprehension in UK and France. China can regulate its internet by restricting it in ways that won't hurt literacy in China. India has banned the app.  There are problems with TikTok that relate to literacy and cultural literacy that Democrats or Republicans or the Supreme Court have failed to bring up let alone address. These concerns should grow in the minds of Americans concerned about preserving the cultural literacy that has existed in the US for the last 200 years- it is about who Americans are as a Nation of immigrants from Europe of the Renaissance and the Modern World. US is a mix of population from European nations of 204 million, of a black population of about 48 million in 2025, 7 million native Americans, and Spanish speaking Americans of 62 million, Asian population of 25 million. The US is at a critical juncture in deciding what kind of a nation it will be. Will it lose it's basic character of a nation which draws its inspiration from European civilization's defining characteristics of the Renaissance, the evolution of science and democratic forms of government leading to creation of the Modern World. The 25 million Asians immigrated to the US for a large part seeking this kind of modernization of society from what they left behind and this is largely true of Spanish speaking immigrants and Spanish settlers who settled California, Texas and Florida as Spain settled the American colonies before the English and French. TikTok ban opposed decreased from 2023 to end of 2024 by 18% from 50% to 32%, according to Pew Research. Pew does not say that this is the result of growing use of TikTok by teenagers and children for entertainment by 12-15% in the period 2023-2025. Between 2021 and 2023 use of TikTok in the US increased by 12% from 21% to 33% from which we can extrapolate that it increased by about 12-15% between 2023 and 2025 if it is growing at the same pace. Politicians oblivious of the effects on cultural literacy in the US are allowing it to be embedded in the US in ways that hurt basic reading and cultural literacy skills. ...