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This New York Times editorial says a smaller Wall Street and growing jobs in other fields will be good for New York as well as good for the country. It says New York politicians should focus on finding new ways for New York to broaden its tax base and get new businesses and new opportunites in fields such as media, advertising, entertainment, health care and tourism. Especially welcome are initiatives such as the science and tech campus of Cornell University promoted by Mayor Bloomberg. Tighter financial rules and higher capital requirements are good for the country and for New York the editorial emphasizes, because they help control reckless banking practices that destroy capital and opportunities for growth elsewhere in the economy. It points to Kevin Rose's Nov. 21, 2011 account in the Times showing a healthy culture shift in New York and the country with the status jobs being seen not at Goldman Sachs but at Google, Apple and Facebook. Rose's account shows that in the last 3 years the number of Wall Street employees of ages 20-34 declined by 25%....

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Cost of living action on oil and food prices, and wage gains by workers, the overall economic expansion and jobs, will play a role in Northampton County, Saginaw County and Hillsborough County, in the states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Hampshire. Other counties in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin affected by the same issues and hurt by the demanufacturing in the US from the Reagan era, the sense of falling behind in places like Bethlehem, Pennsylvania will determine the direction of the US in 2024.

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This Guardian report looks at the Post Office Travel Money City Cost Barometer, a travel survey of cost for 35 European cities. Nazia Parveen does a good job of comparing many cities across Europe showing what the cost comparisons are for a city break this year. While other European cities cost of hotels and restaurants are up steeply Athens and Lisbon, Porto, Lille, Bordeaux, Budapest, Zagreb, Warsaw,  remain good destinations for the cost conscious. Amsterdam, London, Geneva, Berlin, Venice Florence, Paris, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Edinburgh and Dublin are costly destinations. In general smaller cities as in Germany cities such as Dresden, Leipzig, Bremen and Cologne, Hamburg, Heidelberg, Weimar, Erfurt, offer culturally very rich and yet less costly destinations. 

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The new trend of work and wellness hotels is becoming popular so that busy workers in office jobs can get a chance to relax, do yoga and exercize, eat healthy, and get renergized for work. Employees working on projects who are getting burned out with endless hours get a break with a week continuing work but also having a few hours to devote to mental and physical health each day. Hotels are adapting to meet this demand with mindfulness and yoga-pilates classes, and healthy food. 

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US-Swiss trade deal November 2025 for 15% US tariff in exchange for $200 billion in investment in US. This includes access to Swiss markets for the US. The agreement also will let in dairy products and chocolate to the US at 15% tariff to reduce cost of living concerns. Swiss dairy producers and chocolate makers are likely to bear most of the 15% tariff burden because of higher margins. The $2000 rebate to all Americans from tariffs is a good idea of the DJT administration to give Americans protection from the smaller share of the tariffs that are passed on to consumers that are not borne by the producers exporting to the US. Overall in that situation the US will benefit in the restructuring of world trade that the DJT administration will have accomplished without hurting American consumers and bringing large scale investment into the US for jobs and higher wages. This is the part of the DJT Deal that could help America rebuild its manufacturing and economy in new ways.  ...

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Amtrak Biden says is an essential part of the fight to tackle climate change. Rail has 83% less greenhouse emissions than automobiles, and 73% less than plane air travel. It also has the potential to create half a million good jobs. President Biden was known as "Amtrak Joe" because he used Amtrak for decades as America's Senator from Delaware. In this video president Biden speaks at the 50th anniversary of Amtrak in Philadelphia. He says one of the conductors on his daily route estimated Biden has done 1.5 million miles on Amtrak compared to 1.1 million miles on Air Force One. Biden says he has traveled on Amtrak for as long as Amtrak has been in existence- for close to 50 years.

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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A Congressional Oversight Panel said the Obama administration foreclosure plan is not addressing the problems of today. It is borrowers with good credit who ave lost their jobs or those with complex mortgages who are not getting help, and this will add to the higher default rates. THese borrowers because they are jobless are not able to afford even the reduced monthly payments. The HAMP program for reducing payments fails to address these problems.

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Mr. Trump proposes a 10% tariff on all goods imported into the US at Columbia, South Carolina, says this report in WSJ. A universal tariff of this type is similar to Herbert Hoover's Smoot Hawley that brought on the Great Depression in the 1930's in outright beggar thy neighbor policies which don't work, says WSJ. This opinion describes the impact of such a tariff in failing to reverse the trade deficit which is $951 billion in 2022, but fails to point to the lack of effectiveness of tariffs alone in bringing back American manufacturing jobs. As president Biden has pointed out the Trump administration made much talk about returning American jobs but did not accomplish much for American manufacturing to lead the world in the way the Biden administration has done. To do this the Biden administration passed laws to fund a entire new electric car industry, renewable energy industry, and promoting other industries in advanced technologies, including aerospace, to bring back America's leadership in manufacturing of most of the twentieth century with a bold vision for the future. Mr. Trump lacks the experience on this issue and is simply playing the rhetoric to his base without any plan to deliver the goods to sections of the American public that have already suffered the most from decades of neglect of manufacturing by Republicans going back to Reagan and Bush, Democrats Clinton and Obama. ...

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ADP is now using a new jobs collecting methodology to calculate the numbers on jobs added. The October 2012 number of 158,000 jobs added uses this new methodology. ADP is now partnering with Moody's Analytics. Analysts say it would require several months of data to get a good reading.

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Buried in the Pew Trust study in 2017 showing that only 9% of French, 24% of British, 36% of Germans and 37% of Americans feel their children would be better off financially, is the divide between college educated and those with a high school diploma. Only one third of Americans are college graduates, and 69% of them are satisfied with the economy's condition. Of the high school diploma holders or the rest of the population, only 55% think so. This is likely to take a long time to correct, particularly with the loss of good manufacturing jobs and drop in wages in manufacturing of the last two decades,  the need for more technology and skills in the jobs environment, failing schools and families in the social environment.

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The story of a company and its founder in Seattle who realized that $40,000 a year is not much to make a decent living in Seattle- that people had to work 2 jobs. In the process hurting the productivity at the company, with employees putting in less of the kind of energy and motivated work that helps companies grow. The founder decides to cut back on his own expenses and extravagant lifestyle to make sure his employees are paid a decent wage. He did the math and decided on $70,000 Five years later sales of the company have doubled. It is a payments company and the payments processed at Gravity doubled from $3.8 billion a year to $10.2 billion. The number employees have doubled. For employee productivity it mattered that they were not doing 2 jobs and worrying about credit card debt. Now 70% of employees have paid off debt. The amount of money they put into pension funds has doubled. And instead of 1% about 10% own their own homes. This suggests the old culture was bad for the economy as well as employees. More housing demand, more homes built, more cars sold, more money for pension funds to manage, all translate into a better performing economy and economic growth. Simply stated the old culture has put an artificial ceiling on economic growth and worse set a low bar fro productivity in companies. Healthier employees who could spend the time doing second jobs doing exercize instead and staying fit would also bring down the money spent on healthcare.  Ultimately it us about good common sense, and honest thinking about what works and does not work. The old culture simply fails good common sense. ...

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An investment of $1000 in Deutsche Bank shares in 2015 would have led to loss of most of the capital - loss of 75% of it, says this report in DW.com. For years Deutsche Bank chased profitability but the results are dismal. Recently 18,000 jobs were slashed and the bank is now accepting the inevitable shrinking. It all started with with chasing profitability in the U.S. as an investment bank leading to deep losses during the 2009 financial crisis. While German and Swedish teachers as shown in this weeks stories from Europe show struggle to make ends meet on low salaries, jobs in banking have continued to pay even when their are steep losses as at Deutsche Bank. This report argues about who is responsible for high severance pay at banks investors, shareholders, supervisory boards or regulators. Ultimately it is about what choices a society makes, and about the importance it gives to education compared to other occupations, and to good governance across the board without exceptions. Developed countries sometimes fail to learn the lessons of the past in the chaos of the times. ...

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Jack Horton of BBC Verify screens the former president Trump's speech at the Republican National Convention. “Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down".  Fact: FBI data shows crime down 6% and a drop in the murder rate by 13% in 2023. For the First Quarter of 2024 crime down by 15% and recorded murder rate down 26%. "We've had the worst inflation we've ever had under this person [Biden]. I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy . We will drill, baby, drill."  Fact: Inflation went up to 9.1% from 1.4% at the end of the Trump term in the first 2 years of of the Biden Administration by June 2022. Biden and Federal Reserves Powell brought this down to 3%. Explained: This inflation jump to 9% would have happened from supply chain in China for Trump administration as well. Trump's last year was 2019 the Covid pandemic started in January the lockdown by midyear meant sharp drop in demand and little room for inflation. The concentration of supply chain in China was the cause of the surge in inflation as China shut down and restarted late into 2022 causing shortages in factory parts and supplies. Biden focused on vaccination in 2020-2021. This inflation would have happened under Trump- this concentration of supply chain started with Reagan economic philosophy to ship production (and jobs) overseas, Clinton Bush Obama and Trump did little about it. Biden invested heavily in Make in America manufacturing and jobs at home. Biden and Powell did a good job of bringing this inflation down by 2023 to 3% before the European Union and UK. Younger voters don't know this they get their news from the internet and show little interest, see only that the low inflation under Trump and the higher inflation during the pandemic recovery under Biden and blame Biden. will Trump do better on inflation in 2024-2028. The WSJ does not think so its analysis shows inflation higher under Trump than Biden because of a planned 60% tax on imports from China. Trump follows Reagan/Friedman theory of the old Republican party of higher tax cuts for the wealthy, so no money is left for investing in American manufacturing and jobs as Biden free of this theory is able to do, leading to slowing growth with inflation under Trump.        ...

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All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

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Another danger for Labour comes from Rachel Reeves being exactly the wrong attitude person for this time giving too much deference and authority to Office of Budget Responsibility, which was set up for austerity rules under John Osborne. It is not set up to give Britain the public investment in infrastructure that it needs today and its members thinking ios from that era. Labour Good Growth Foundation, Common Wealth and Labour group Progress are advising Labour party to change before it is too late. Langleben of Progress says-“The OBR was created for an era defined by austerity, and while it can clearly count the upfront cost of investment, it too often misses the long-term value, whether that’s a healthier workforce, better housing or modern transport." It now appears that Rachel Reeves is really the wrong person for the job of Finance minister and that Keir Starmer had another problem in addition to McSweeney, where he was stuck with 5 billion pounds cuts to welfare spending losing some of the Labour base to Greens, as seen in byelections and in polls showing a mere 18% approval rate for Starmer. It now appears that Yvette Cooper at Home Ministry stuck on the old asylum rules, Rachel Reeves stuck on the austerity period OBR assessments and making cuts in payments for Labour's base, and McSweeney with his lack of honest conviction to help Labour's base, Mandelson, were all the wrong people appointed to the wrong positions that risk's losing the base of Labour by fracturing it and sending it to Reform UK on immigration, on budget cuts to the Greens, and on a sense of lack of true conviction and sincerity to the Liberal party. ...

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...

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In this exceptional report of the housing market in Roanoke, Virgina, Neil Irwin talks to builders, home buyers, renters and young people. San Francisco and Washington D.C. are the exception in housing markets- hundreds of America's midsize cities like Roanoke are seeing smaller rates of household formation leading to a decline in demand for single family homes and fewer homes being built. This accounts for a large part of the smaller growth in U.S. GDP. There are he points out about 2.3 million missing households as a result of a significant change in home buying patterns that is reducing demand for new construction of single family homes. During the period 2001-2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of new U.S. household formation was about 1.35 million annually. This dropped to 569,000 in 2007-2013, as the effects of the crisis were felt in a deep recession. One result is more young people are postponing buying a house and living with their parents. Faced with large student debt- the total U.S. student debt passed $1 trillion for the first time recently- purchases of homes are becoming more dfficult. Of 18-34 year olds 27% lived with their parents before 2006, according to Labor Department data. This went up to 31% following the recession. Lack of good jobs is another factor. In 2014 March only 63% of 18-24 year olds had jobs. Even young people older than 24 with jobs felt it necessary to save money by living with their parents. More retirees too are moving into apartments....

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You didn't have to be poor to be frugal. American frugality was a way of life on the prairies and farms of America for most of the eighteenth, nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century. It was only after 1950's that piles of consumer products were discarded to pile up in rubbish mountains somewhere in the Atacama desert in Chile by 2020. The over use of plastic contaminated the land and the oceans. The consumer debt led to money sent overseas that could be invested in America so that workers could have good jobs and American manufacturing could hold its place in the world as second to none.

As old habits are revived some areas in America from upstate New York to upstate Michigan still cling to the old values as shown in this report by Claire Ansberry in the WSJ. 

 

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Some startling statistics on U.S. wages and incomes and the increase of part-time workers, by the publisher of U.S. News and World Report, Mortimer Zuckerman. He cites the Pew Research Center reports that show one third of Americans identifying themeselves as lower class or lower middle class compared to one quarter before 2008. This affects social mobility with the increasing gaps in incomes, education and social behaviour acting to reinforce each other and leading to even lower future mobility. Industries that are showing growth are in low wage occupations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows growth in future in industries noted for low wage part time work- health care, social assistance and retail, with some jobs lacking minimum wage and overtime protections. Revealing in this respect is that in the last 2 years fully 43% of net employment growth is in the 1.7 million jobs added in low wage work in food service, retail and employment services industries. The number of Americans working full time declined by 5.9 million since Sept 2007, part time workers increased by 2.6 million. The effects of higher part time workers and job recovery predominantly in lower wage industries is likely to affect consumer spending and slow growth....

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The U.S. government has spent $18 billion on training and job-search programs, with 47 programs offering training for the year ending Sept. 2009, according to the Government Accountability Office. President Obama proposed spending $8 billion more over 3 years to train 2 million people for new jobs. In addition there are state and local programs which get federal funding. Lawrence Katz, a Harvard labor professor says the money is given out on a haphazard basis and does not have a good track record of matching the training to the job openings. Part of the problem is that the government leaves it to state unemployment offices to evaluate labor markets and help trainees decide on professions to prepare for. A better approach is now being take by getting employers to offer on-the-job training. This approach is being adopted by community colleges and the Labor Department to improve matching of skills training to job openings.

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The size of the stimulus package announced at 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) involves only 1 trillion yuan in new spending according to analysts, the larger number was announced to bolster consumer and company sentiment. Export order are falling quickly from 27% increase in 2007 over 2006, to 21% increase in Sept 2008, to 19% increase in October 2008. over same month prior year. But imports are falling more quickly which is not good news for European exporters like Germany and for American exporters except for infrastructure exporters, and for commodities exporters like Brazil, Australia and Canada. In October imports slowed from 21% in September to 15% in October, which actually increased China's trade surplus from $29 billion in September to $35 billion in October. Exports of iron ore from Australia and Brazil are down and machinery from Germany. For China's urban middle class and rural poor the one relief is in inflation for fuel and food, the consumer price index rose 4% in October compared to 4.6% in September and down from a peak of 8.7% in February 2008. The spending will come in infrastructure including railways. Railways construction spending will be increased from 300 billion yuan in 2008 to 350 billion yuan and double to 600 billion yuan in 2009. This is expected to create 80,000 new jobs to replace jobs lost in the toys and furniture export sectors and other job losses. ...

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This is one of the weakest job recoveries the U.S. has experienced. The U.S. economy is seven million jobs below pre-recession employment and the labor participation rate is at 64.2%. It was 66.4% in 2006. Consumer prices are increasing even as the average wage has remained the same at $22.87. Increases in food and energy prices put a squeeze on the middle class, as it tries to get by on less.

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Issues about how many more jobs are supported by Apple beyond the 47,000 employees in the U.S. Estimates of job creation in China and overseas through supplier networks for iPads, iPhones and other products are as high as 700,000. Apple says it has "created or supported" 514,000 jobs in the U.S. Experts say it is hard to say how many jobs are supported. Of the jobs Apple counted in this number, the consulting group doing the estimate included 257,000 jobs at companies such as Corning that makes the glass for the iPhone, UPS, and a Samsung plant in Texas. The number was generated using a formula of the federal government's Bureau of Economic Analysis and how much money Apple spent on goods and services in the U.S. An additional 210,000 jobs were generated by companies making apps for Apple devices. The consulting company estimated that 45% of the 466,000 app related jobs in the U.S. -using the estimate of such jobs from TechNet- were for Apple apps. Apple released these figures on its website as criticism from the industry and outside mounts about whether Apple is doing enough for jobs in the U.S. Intel's Andy Grove is one of the industry executives who has pointed out that there is much scaling up at home that U.S. companies need to do....

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Samulelson points to the problems of pushing college-for-all. He compares it to the misguided housing policy that sought to promote housing access to all Americans including those who could not afford it by lowering requirements on credit and downpayments. Problems include student debt without job prospects, inadequate vocational training, and lowering educational standards at all levels including high school and college. Compared to Germany and other European countries the U.S. does poorly in providing vocational training and relating education in college to jobs through apprenticeship and other training in companies. Combining classroom and on-the-job training is more advanced in Europe. As sociologist Rehman of Northwestern University points out its important to set different pathways to rewarding careers. In 2008 the U.S. had only 480,000 workers or 0.3% of the labor force who were apprentices, according to Robert Lerman of American University. Useful to note is also that only 69% of U.S. jobs in 2010, required a post-high school degree, according to the Labor Department. Putting everybody on the college track, belittles those who do not finish college, ignores the need for vocational skills and technical skills in jobs, and puts the diploma above skills and knowledge gained.. Taking the approach to an extreme hurts young people in the job market and reduces America's competitiveness. This is similiar to what happened in housing policies that sounded good but actually devastated the financial condition of minorities that it was supposedly intended to help, as seen in high foreclosure rates....