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Only 54% of Millenials 18-29 years of age voted for Clinton (early CNN polls), compared to two thirds of older white people 45-64 years voting for Trump. The greater enthusiasm of older white voters 45-64 years of age compared to slightly lower enthusiasm of younger people made a difference in addition to lack of union worker enthusiasm for a typical Democratic candidate. See the Maeve Reston, CNN, Democrats Pick Up the Pieces, article showing how the union vote may have tipped the 2016 election in industrial states of the midwest. 

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Jeff Flake, U.S. Senator from Arizona tells Republican candidates, "Distance yourself from Trump," and Flake is thinking not just of 2016, but of elections to come.  In the West generally it is not just about minorities, but also the educated white collar professionals in cities such as Salt Lake City, Denver and Phoenix. The percentage of registered Republicans in Colorado dropped by 4 percentage points since 2012, and now Democrats have the same share of registered voters. In Arizona Hillary Clinton has invested resources to register more Hispanics and minorities. The distancing from Trump by Romney and the shift of the Mormon vote is making Utah also a place where Clinton is catching up in polls. As a result most of the West now looks very different. The remaining western states of Wyoming, Idaho, Montana and Alaska, say experts have a total of 13 of the 538 Electoral College votes. With Utah this is 19. 

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This article in DW.com cites experts who point out that the Republican Party always had tensions within it because of the diverging interests of three groups that have allied together to form the party- Wealthy businessmen and corporate interests, evangelicals, and white working class people who have seen their incomes decline for several decades. The interests of each group have some overlap, are sometimes masked but frequently they diverge. Nigel Bowles, former director of the Rothermere Institute at Oxford University, says there is no particular reason that this coalition would hold together, that it was unstable to begin with, a wonder that it did not split up earlier. Scott Lucas, an expert on American Studies at the University of Birmingham, says that Reagan showed great skill in holding this coalition together, and Donald Trump has taken it apart by mobilizing only one constituency of white working class voters and leaving out others. The break between Republican party leaders Ryan, McCain, and state party leaders, with Trump is unprecedented in post war American politics, and putting it back together now looks like a lost cause in the medium term.  ...

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Rep Marie Perez 34 years, of Washington State, is one of the new members of Congress who feel there is a sense of disrespect for people without college degrees, that Democrats have to go back to the days of John Kennedy when a majority of voters without college degrees supported him. John Kennedy had more support from people without collrege degrees than with college degrees. In 1960 John Kennedy had 52% of people with high school education, 65 years later Biden had only 41%. The 11 percentage points gap is what is needed to be filled to bring the Democratic party back to what its core values are, core values lost after entry of Silicon Valley people and finance industry people into the Democratic party -muddying up the core principles of the Democrats since Woodrow Wilson and FDR from the 1900's to Kennedy in the 1960's, standing up for the rights and aspirations of workers and families.

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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Mr. Trump the Republican nominee for president dials into Fox New to speak just as Kamala Harris was making her speech and called Mr. Trump "an unserious man" who would bring "serious" negative consequences to the Nation if elected. Bret Baier and Martha McCallum were doing Fox News coverage as Kamala Harris made her speech. McCallum said at one point Kamala Harris was having some success with Women, Black and Hispanic voters, and Trump objected that it was not harris but he that was having success with Women, Black and Hispanic people. Trump's comments- "she didn't talk about China, about crime, fracking."  She talks about this and that, she would do this and that, but she did not do any of it, said the former president. This recalls president Biden's speech at the Convention in Chicago when he said Trump said he would do this every week, to fix America's infrastructure, and he Trump did nothing. He was not Coach, Trump said of Walz, he was Assistant Coach. After 10 minutes Baier heard Mr. Trump entering something on his phone and he ended the conversation with the former president., because they were running out of time. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ says Brexit lets British voters not a political elite decide the best way forward. Endless integration set by the EU in Brussels was never the best course for Britain given its trading and commercial history. The anemic economic growth, migration crisis in the EU, and the lack of accountability of Brussels EU bureaucracy was an issue for the British public. Ask any unemployed youth in France, stagnating entrepreneurs in Germany, or people in Eastern and Southern Europe struggling with economic policy for the euro set in Frankfurt by the ECB, says the WSJ.

The British government handling Brexit and the economy will still be held accountable for delivering good results. British people choosing to "take back control" through political independence was the right way given that continental social democracy and the "European Project" does not have the answers for Britain's future vision and growth.

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Politics in Britain as Britain prepares for a general election. The UKIP party polls 13 percent and Conservatives 32 percent and only an alliance could beat the Liberals and Labour, Greens combined. So why is Boris Johnson not embracing UKIP and Farage. Boris Johnson top adviser Cummings is said to have kept Farage to a minimum in display during the EU elections, causing resentment. Farage has doubts about the Conservatives and has rejected an alliance. Conservatives see him as playing populist politics and having little interest in the Conservative Party's ideas, somewhat like a Salvini in Italy or Orban in Hungary. Conservatives see Farage as preventing them appealing to moderates.  Boris Johnson hopes to work out new spending to support working class voters in an effort to win broader support for the Conservatives. He also hopes he can go back to voters saying only he could deliver Brexit if given a solid mandate, in dealing with the EU and in dealing with parliament.   ...

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Efforts of prime minister Theresa May to somehow force members of parliament to back her Brexit deal through repeated votes in parliament have collapsed. Speaker Bercrow says the same deal cannot be voted on twice. Last week the British parliament rejected May's Brexit deal by the largest margin of any bill in parliamentary history. The vote rejecting her deal was with a margin of 149 votes. Speaker Bercrow cited a parliamentary convention dating back to 1604.  

Conservative Party leaders opposing May's deal Jacob Rees Mogg welcomed the Speaker's ruling. The Conservative Party is so divided on this issue of exiting the European Union that it has severely undermined Mrs. May's authority in parliament. Mr. Mogg favors leaving the European Union with no deal regardless of the consequences. On the other side is the Labour Party and some Conservative party members who are adamantly opposed to this.

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Biden is going back to the coalition of support both north and south and younger and older white voters of  the Democratic party and Republicans under Teddy Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower that prevailed for most of the last 100 years except for the period after Reagan which included Clinton and Obama in the Republican style policies just as TR and Eisenhower followed Democrat type policy. It is the broad centre of the Nation. Nate Cohn shows that this is what is happening and Biden holds firm in the support he is getting from white and older white voters. It also will give the Nation opportunity to take a breather from all the culture wars whipped up for no purpose as it is about US leadership in the world and a better life for its people with new infrastructure and science/manufacturing leadership. This also means Biden has strong support in his near home state Pennsylvania, in Michigan and in Wisconsin in addition to growing support in a broad section. of southern states which was the situation for Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman and John F. Kennedy/LBJ. Many forget LBJ was from Texas and Sam Houston was one of the heroes in Kennedy's Profiles of Courage with his support for the Nation. ...

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CSU leader and chief minister of Bavaria, Markus Soder, says no moral legitimacy to govern could be derived from Christian Democrats poor showing in the German elections. CSU is part of CDU/CSU alliance. CSU is the party in Bavaria with its state capital in Munich. Soder says CDU should not be attempting to form a coalition. A look at the map of Germany given on September 28 in NYT shows  CDU/CSU black mostly in southern Germany in Bavaria. The rest of Germany is all red Social Democrats with Greens in densely populated Berlin, Cologne and Hamburg, and AfD in Saxony/Thuringia in the east.  This shows that the 2% margin lead of Social Democrats over Christian Democrats under Merkel/Laschet does not reflect the true picture of this election. Without Bavaria the CDU has clearly lost this election by a large margin to the Social Democrats and Greens. This is a message also for the Free Democrats FDP as the FDP program belongs clearly to the past and the Merkel years of not moving Germany forward with investment to modernize Germany. The Greens and SPD promised voters in their programs loudly and clearly to invest big in modernization, and this is the mandate handed to them by voters. ...

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Bernie Sanders tells his supporters at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia that "immediately right now, we have got to defeat Donald Trump, and we have got to elect Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine." He says this campaign was not about just electing a president but about transforming the country. And for this he was planning to back about 100 candidates with similiar thinking across the U.S. He called on supporters to continue the campaign for social, economic, racial and environmental justice. Voters for Sanders were offended by the information shown in DNC email leaks of the bias against Sanders shown by DNC chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who has since resigned.

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Hancock County, Iowa, is one of those rural counties in the American heartland that did not support Mr. Trump in 2016. This county now supports Trump by a large margin because they see his policies benefitting rural America, and see him as a way for the Republican party to be back in power to pursue a conservative agenda. WSJ reports from Hancock County in Iowa. The American voting system gives more importance to states with smaller populations in the Electoral College relative to larger states. States with large farming communities such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa play a larger role in elections in the US than population alone would suggest. John McCormick of the WSJ talks to farmers in this rural county in Iowa with a higher proportion of less educated voters than the rest of the counties in Iowa. One of five voters have a bachelors degree in Hancock County compared to one in three in Iowa as a whole and 38% nationally. The median age is 44 years compared to 39 years nationally and in Iowa. This part of rural Iowa is also in farmland that is many miles away from large cities and urban areas and more isolated and homogenous as 9 out of ten people are non-Hispanic and white. About a fourth of these voters are supporting his candidacy over Nikki Haley because they see it as more likely to win because of polls, even though Haley is according to the WSJ editorial opinion the stronger candidate for Republicans across the suburbs critical for 2024, which are slightly younger, more educated, and less isolated from the rest of the country. Biden and Obama are a sharp contrast when it comes to rural America. Where his own Agriculture secretary felt rural America was neglected by president Obama, Biden truly cares for rural America and has huge investments in rural America as part of the rural infrastructure effort. ...

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How well U.S. presidential front runner does depends on whether the Democratic Party is returning to its roots when it was able to attract working class voters and people without college degrees. Over the years since Harry Truman's presidency the Republican party was able to peel off less educated working class white voters from the Democratic party on the basis of religion, race, gender and traditional attitudes to culture. Could this have gone too far and will the Democratic Party in the U.S. fight to recover support from its traditional base of common people, just as the Labour Party in Britain under Jeremy Corbyn sees itself as defending working class and common people's aspirations. Biden's future depends on how much he can rally the party back to its roots with his  Harry Truman like style and fighting spirit. Few American presidents in the modern period could match the courage, simplicity, openness and tenacity of Harry Truman, which is why he was able to come from behind and win in 1948 elections after the death of president Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1945. ...

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900 million eligible voters in India means this is the largest election ever. The election will take place in 7 phases in April and May from April 11 to May 19. Votes will be counted on May 23. The election is for 543 seats in parliament, the Lok Sabha. Turnouts are high with 66% turning out in the last election that brought Mr. Modi and the BJP to power.  Unlike elections in Britain a lot is spent in each election, about $5 billion in the last election and double that this time. The U.S. elections in 2016 had spending of $6.5 billion as a comparison. Women vote at about the same rate as men and more women than men are expected to vote this time. Prime minister Modi won the last election with promises of development and infrastructure. He is delivering on infrastructure but building manufacturing and generating jobs in the formal sector remains a tougher task for any administration in 4 years. During the first term Mr. Modi made needed changes including introducing the GST tax to integrate India's fragmented market and get rid of a patchwork of regional state taxes. He introduced a whole range of projects and yojanas which are setting the stage for widening the middle class, and improving living conditions. Some of the problems such as the bad loans in the banking system date back to previous administrations and the government has taken steps to clean up this problem by refinancing banks and introducing a bankruptcy law. This has slowed GDP growth to about 7%. However this would have happened under any administration.  The brief war with Pakistan in February 2019 has added another dimension to this election with questions about whether this may help Mr. Modi because of his strong stand against terrorism camps in Pakistan.  In the end it all comes down to whether the public still believes the BJP party under Modi is best qualified to develop the infrastructure to modernize the country and improve services, and whether it can create enough of the manufacturing capabilities to generate jobs needed. It may not be that the BJP under Modi has  not made mistakes in the process of learning how best to tackle development, but whether a patchwork of regional parties led by the opposition Congress party is in a position to provide the strong decisive direction to make quick decisions on development. Getting the agreement of a number of regional parties such as the party in West Bengal state or the Uttar Pradesh state when it was under a previous administration of Mrs Mayawati means an even slower rate of decision making as it leads to lack of speedy decision making. Whether voters have short memories and forget the slow rate of infrastructure development under previous administrations or have a willingness to give the BJP a chance to show what it can do under Modi for development can eventually decide this election. An example of what this means is in how the Mumbai Metro is being pushed through to timely delivery- Metro Rail's head Mrs. Ashwini Bhide simply says she feels for the people of Mumbai who have suffered from delays in development of needed infrastructure for so long, with millions doing appalling rides in a creaky old rail system. In her view it should have been done yesterday. It is this attitude that can make or break the current administration, and whether it can get this message through to voters one more time. Most who have this attitude are aware that China is now laying enough concrete every two years than America did in the whole 20th century, as reported in the Guardian newspaper, and are equally passionate about delivery of services and rapid development of badly needed infrastructure.         ...

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To make it possible to for the sale of Paramount with its CBS subsidiary to Ellison's Skydance for $8 billion, the company has stepped back from its confrontation with president DJT in a lawsuit. The 60's commentator Walter Cronkite was from CBS News, and Edward Murrow broadcast on  World War II on CBS News.  Somehow this has gone awry with recent coverage in 2024. DJT objected to CBS head Wendy McMahon's handling of news coverage on programs such as -60 Minutes, Face the Nation on Sundays, that he said was tailored to present Democrats candidate Kamala Harris in a certain way, that affected DJT's chances with voters. 

For the sale to Skydance to go ahead to Paramount which owns CBS, needed te cooperation of the Federal Communications Commission under Brendan Carr. Paramount settled the DJT lawsuit for $16 million with Wendy McMahon departing CBS News, the money going directly to DJT Presidential Library. 

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For Republicans not to back ajobs bill creates aquandary for voters.

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Peter Magyar says-  "You performed a miracle today, Hungary made history today." Magyar's party needed 133 seats in the 199 seat Hungarian parliament to reverse some of Orban's more controversial policies on the judiciary and on government. Magyar's party Tisza won 138 seats and 57% of the vote compared to about 38% for Viktor Orban's Fidesz that has ruled Hungary from 1998-2002 and 2010 to 2026. Magyar likens the win to the Hungarian Revolution of 1956, a spontaneous uprising against Soviet rule, and an earlier revolution in 1848. Voter tunout was the highest it has ever been at 78%. The city on the Danube river Budapest was lit up, parliament was lit up as Hungary celebrated a win for reintegration into Europe. For 400 years since 1600 the Hapsburg dynasty helped push back the Ottoman Turks invasion of Hungary and Vienna, and was one of the major Empires of Europe, with Britain, France, Russia, Prussia competing for influence. The Hapsburg  base was in both Vienna and Budapest and reflects the history of Central Europe from the Renaissance to the Scientific and Industrial Revolution. Magyar's first visit is to Poland. He will join European leaders from France, Britain and Germany, Italy, as they formulate policy on Ukraine and the future of the European Union. Under Orban Hungary was the lone dissent or combined this with Poland's Law and Justice Party government in the European Union. In 1923 the Law and Justice Party was defeated, in 2026 Fidesz is defeated, and the European Union is now able to speak with one voice in its opposition to Russia. As the US moves away from NATO the new European Union is in a better position to take on responsibilities for its defense. ...

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Galston cites a Federal Reserve Board of Chicago 2014 study showing setbacks for black people in achieving improvement in income status. Even for children born into middle income black families about 55% are expected to fall below middle income status compared to 36% for children of white middle income families. The problem is not just the gap as Galston points out but what it says for the declining income mobility for the white middle class when 36% are likely to see declining status and prospect for the future, and 23% will see no improvement. Overall it shows a lack of income and social mobility for whites and minorities alike compared to the past improvements since the 1960's, not a bright prospect and less hope for the future the way things are, and why so many of the establishment candidates and existing policies are being questioned by voters.

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Jagdeep Dhankar is elected vice president of India with 528 votes out of 725 votes from members of parliament. He is seen as an outstanding chair of the Rajya Sabha, India's Upper house of parliament, by Modi, Jaishankar, Goyal and others. He was an Advocate for the Supreme Court of India. He coms from a farming family in Rajasthan from the Jat community. He was a member of parliament and a member of the legislative assembly of Rajasthan. Dhankar was a minister of state for parliamentary affairs under prime minister Chandrasekhar. With his wide experience he goes back to the early days of the Janata Dal, the party that preceded the current BJP party. The president and vice presidential positions have now been filled with the best representatives of the tribal communities in India that make up about 110 million people in India, and a representative of farmers from the Jat farming community in the states of Rajasthan, western UP and Haryana.   ...

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There is much uncertainty about the federal elections in Germany in 2025. Four years back in 2021 Olaf Scholz had 51% of people polled saying he would make a good chancellor. This is down to 26% in Feb 2025. Merz of CDU is at 32% and Habeck of Greens at 25%. The Greens are holding onto 14% similar to 2021 with the SPD Social Democrats of Scholz at a low of 18% down from 25% in 2021. CDU is at 32% compared to 24% in 2021. AFD moving from 11% in 2021 to 21%. The immigration issue and the weak economy with the Ukraine war has hit SPD hard. The Scholz coalition also failed to invest in the economy with the FDP of Finance Minister Lindner acting as a brake on needed investment in infrastructure. The result is that the German economy burdened with higher costs for energy and a faltering auto industry is showing zero growth. The most likely outcome is a CDU coalition with the Greens and the SPD with Merz as chancellor. There is athreshold for gettinginto parliament of 4%. At this time a breakaway faction of Left parties of Wagenknecht and the FDP are both polling below 4%. The AfD is at 21% and hoping to gain from the immigration issue. Much of the uncertaintly comes from 18% of voters not planning to vote, and the 13% of voters who have not made up their mind yet and will do so on election day. ...

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Eric Cantor, a House member from the Richmond area, who is the face behind the zero Republican votes in the House for the Stimulus Plan. He says Democrats should not take the message from this that they should not mess with the Republicans anymore in discussing the plans for the economy. Is this good policy though, when the bill has given some middle ground between tax cuts and spending, and the spending is on areas neglected for years such as roads and bridges, classrooms and energy infrastructure? And is there an element of lack of comprehension by Republicans stuck on ideological grounds, of the seriously deteriorating nature of this crisis which is likely not to come back with recovery in several years, and is a global crisis? When Prime Minister Thatcher, UK Prime Minister, left office, the British infrastructure rail, rapid transit, hospitals and schools, had been neglected for many years and voters were looking for ways to rebuild the dilapidated infrastructure. The economy was weakening under her Conservative party successor, giving the Labor Party its chance to make a come back on the grounds of rebuilding infrastructure and services, and improving the economy. In which case there are just as many risks in this approach of being left out entirely and losing credibility across the country. Sometimes a feel good position may not be the best, or the wisest option, and may be shortsighted. ...

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Tim Kaine's reason for joining Senate vote- to reduce hardship across the US, knowing the key actors and the chances of Republicans approving ACA subsidies were zero. Tim Kaine in his own words says why he joined in meeting with 2 New Hampshire Senators Shaheen and Hassan, and Angus King of Maine, to end the shutdown. He says he got Republicans to agree on support funding for food assistance and for veterans families and for workers in the federal government. Other reports show that over 300,000 workers in the federal government are from Tim Kaine's voter base in Virginia- he is a former governor of Virginia- all affected by job cuts and needing back pay, and he was doing what he though was right for them and for the Nation. 

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A small town mayor who says he will fight with Biden for workers and families in every county in Pennsylvania wins the Senate seat against aTV health show host favored by Mr. Trump. The scrappy fight put up by Democrats on their own in different parts of the country is the main takeaway from this election for control of running 36 of America's 51 states and control of Congress. Fighting an election with major legislation on controlling healthcare costs and for renewable energy, infrastructure investments, Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats was forced into a back to the wall fight because of price increases from Russia's war in Ukraine. Voters took notice not falling for the message on inflation alone that is being tackled by the Fed's Jerome Powell, giving room for seeing the larger picture.

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The 2016 primaries with Sanders and Trump have brought to the forefront voter dissatisfaction with the agenda of both parties, especially so for Republicans with the lack of specifics and personality driven campaign of frontrunner Trump. On a whole host of issues from poverty, wages and inequality, regulatory reform, to trade, borders, security, ISIS, both parties are facing questions from voters. Particularly the Republicans who have lacked specifics during the two terms of the Democratic Obama administration with a divided Republican Congress, and the risks for Republicans running for Congress under frontrunners Trump or Cruz who have provided few details on their agenda. The Agenda project of Ryan will have about 25 meetings and prepared specific agenda, including white papers and legislation, that would give Republicans hope to run on positive proposals that are placed before the Republican Convention in Cleveland. Chairmen of House standing committees were assigned 6 areas- health care, taxes, national security, regulatory reform, poverty, and Congress reasserting constitutional authority. Ryan told the Ethics and Public Policy Center on April 19, 2016- "A lot of people don't like conservatism as they know it. For too many people Republicans seem to be caught in a time warp. They're thinking, 'We don't control our borders. Wages are going nowhere. College and healthcare keep getting expensive. ISIS continues to spread. And what are Republicans going to do about it?' So we need to adapt our policies to meet the challenges of the 21st century."...