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Alberta referendum of October 19 2026 for separation from Canada. Alberta with oil and gas, Saskatchewan and Manitoba with agricultural production provide Eastern Canadian provinces such as Ontario and Quebec with food and energy,  Sepratist sentiment in Alberta comes from a sense that Alberta is being exploited by Eastern Canada for the last 100 years. An independent Alberta would be aligned with the US, more likely, though it could be part of the US states. Canada says Sir Ivor Jennings in his book Commonwealth of Nations, if it had joined the US in 1776 would have trade patterns north to south with trade between Vermont and New Hampshire to Ontario, Birtish Columbia with Washington state, instead of the east to west trade of the last 250 years with western Canadian product shipped to the more populated east. Alberta has 12 % of the population of Canada of 40 million or about 5 million people and contributes 15% of the Canadian economy.

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Bringing US inflation from 5.5% in 2022 to 3.5% now is helped by decline in durable goods prices. Prices of furniture, used cars, appliances have fallen for 5 months and are expected to decline further. In October 2023 they were down from their peak in September 2022 by 2.6%, the Commerce Department shows. This is good news for the economy.

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The Federal Reserve dropped the rate of growth of the U.S. economy from 2.3% to 2.1% in 2019. With slowing growth the Federal Reserve plans no interest rate increases in 2019. Sentiment on the Federal Open Market Committee is for one rate increase in 2020 and none in 2021. The Federal Reserve increased interest rates five times in five consecutive quarters to the current range of 2.25% -2.5%.

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 President DJT has several options after SC Tariffs decision -Sections 122 Trade Act of 1972 has 150 day limit and 15% maximum tariff rate, and Sections 232 and 301 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 is specifically designed for China and countries with high trade deficits. DJT pointed out at the press conference following the Supreme Court decision pointed out that he had these options at the beginning in April for tariffs. He chose IEEPA instead because the other options required work that would take several months showing the unfair treatment of the US by other nations. It is likely that the president used IEEPA for speed yet kept open the options to replace it with the option that would work best. The new studies will have been started much earlier in 2025 so that the president can introduce all his tariffs under new arrangements. Another aspect of this is that the president has negotiated Free Trade Agreements with most of the nations that are large trade partners from India, China, Vietnam, South Korea, Japan to UK, EU, Germany, France with the idea of boosting the US economy with tariffs of 10-15%. ...

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Policy on China in the second year of the DJT Administration- shift from adversary positions to cooperation. A shift in policy after the meetings with Chinese leaders Xi and Wang Yi at Busan, South Korea in 2025. WSJ Analysis looks at what happened in the first term of DJT, the Biden Administration that followed and in 2025 in US-China relations and how the posture changed, how Xi and his team built rapport with DJT and his team over the tumultuous period in 2025. US turned to Xi in getting Iran to the table for negotiations in Islamabad meetings after the month long effort to take out Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile program infrastructure. This was arranged in the early hours of Tuesday April 7th 2026. Throughout the US air campaign in Iran China pursued the policy it had set at Busan of not letting it affect US- China relations and the DJT visit to Beijing believing it sets the basis for the future course of US- China that affects the whole world beyond regions such as the Middle East where little headway has been made in bringing about peace. China US, EU, India, Brazil, Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, make up most of the world's population and China remains focused on ensuring the US and China can through their cooperation maintain peace in the world overall. This is reflected in this statement of China's Foreign Ministry on Busan meeting as the beginning of something new and big for the world- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world. And that is an important secret to our success. China will further deepen reform across the board, expand opening up, and promote higher-quality economic growth while achieving an appropriate increase in economic output, and advance well-rounded human development and common prosperity for all. This will also expand the space for cooperation between China and the United States." This relates to China's worst fear, worst nightmare - that before it can become a fully developed economy for 1.4 billion people it would find itself in the situation that faces Japan of an aging society and weak growth something Japan faces as a fully developed economy much smaller of 120 million people. Japan per capita GDP is at $36,000 2.5 times China's at $14,000 and about a fifth of Germany's at $64,000, about a seventh of the USA at $92,000. So that if China does not continue along the path of development it has followed since 1990 working with the US and EU it faces the prospect of losing forever the prospect of joining Japan and fall into lower than middle income status when large parts of the interior of China a third of its economy that is rural are still living in poor economy status with per capita GDP of $3500, which is 8% of the GDP per capita of the poorest state heavily rural state of Mississippi in the US. Even Shanghai and Beijing with about $32,000 per capita GDP are only about 58% of the per capita GDP of Louisiana in the bottom one third of US states. Xi Wang Yi, Lifeng are doing what China must do to compete with advanced US and European economies and Japan- continue to work with the US on the development model that has worked the best for China since 1990. It is not about supplanting anyone China is serious when it says here- "Over the past seven decades and more, we have been working from generation to generation on the same blueprint to make it a reality. We have no intention to challenge or supplant anyone. Our focus has always been on managing China’s own affairs well, improving ourselves, and sharing development opportunities with all countries across the world." ...

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Greece prime minister Mitsotakis in this interview tells Reuters on May 15, that he hope the next four years will be years of rapid growth for Greece, but also one that will limit inequalities and make sure that Greece supports its most vulnerable. Greece was hit hard with higher energy costs after the war in Ukraine. It was not long ago in 2010 that Greece was daily in the news with reports of the eurozone debt crisis that affected Greece, Ireland, Spain. That crisis wiped out more than 25% of its GDP. He is credited with having managed the economy through the period after Syriza a rival party almost put Greece out of the eurozone. Lack of eurozone controls on debt of its members, lack of transparency in Greece's financial affairs were severe handicaps.  Today after a decade of austerity that it took to get its financial affairs in order including tackling over hiring in the government burreaucracy, lax financial controls, ordinary Greeks face high inflation and low incomes. Mitsotakis has raised the pensions and raised the minimum wage by 20% to 780 euros to help Greeks with the cost of living crisis. He has spent $50 billion euros in relief measures since 2020. Economic growth after reaching 5.9% in 2022 will slow to 2.3% in 2023. Mitsotakis addressed both Houses of the US Congress last year when Speaker Pelosi was in office. His image is dimmed somewhat by a surveillance of the Opposition ranks that was discovered recently and is covered in an accompanying article in the WSJ on May 19, 2023 shown on this page. The elections in 2023 are expected to bring Mitsotakis back in government with his party getting about 31% of the vote but lacking a majority in parliament. ...

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The Chief Economic Adviser to the Indian Government Mr. Anantha Nageswaran, makes these comments on the economy of India before the presentation of the new Budget for April 2023 to March 2024. The Economic Survey of India states that "India is prepared to grow at its potential once the one-off shocks of the Covid pandemic and of the supply chain recede." He sees the sweeping effects of the reforms across multiple dimensions taken from 2016 to 2022 having a lag effect and now making their impact. This means that potential growth can go up to 7 or 8% with macroeconomic improvement, fiscal improvement, infrastructure efforts, women's employment, and getting rid of LIC (License, Inspect and Compliance) across local, state and central levels. He says the central bank estimate of 6.8% retail inflation for 2022-2023 is outside its target range but yet not high enough to deter private consumption, and no low enough to weaken the inducement to invest. He says slower growth in the world including the US will bring two advantages for India- low oil prices and a better current account deficit situation.  ...

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Stock funds in the US which suffered decline of 18% in 2022 staged a recovery of 7.8% in January 2023. The Fed's ability to bring down inflation and the health of the economy, improving economic conditions in Europe, China, and India, provided supportive conditions.

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Fed's Jay Powell says about his interest rate increases of five percentage points at consecutive meetings since March 2022- "We've seen the beginnings of disinflation without any real costs in the labor market. That is really a good thing." Greg Ip of the WSJ looks at the 9 year period of most growth cycles in the US economy since 1980 and says a soft landing could be followed by growth till about 2030. Business investment led to 2.4% growth in the second quarter 2023. More investment is in the pipeline under the Biden economic plan. As inflation is going down to about 3% from 9% at its peak in 2022 the US is set for economic growth that would help it grow in a way that would enable America to meet the challenges of today in climate change, worker incomes and the cost of living, and in need to rebuild the nation's infrastructure in the way it was done in the years after 1945 under Truman and Eisenhower.

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As the U.S. economy continues to recover Europe is seeing the impact of the second wave of the pandemic on the economy. Economists say the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 28% in the third quarter of 2020 after a drop of 31% in the second quarter. WIth a surge of cases to over 1 million in Spain and curfews in France and Italy, the economy in the European Union is slowing again.

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Just as Democrats and Mr Biden learned from the experience of earlier lockdowns in the US and opened up the US economy in 2021 and 2022, China is now taking its own steps to move away from its earlier policies that affected the economy with frequent lockdowns and tight restrictions. There are some risks but in the long run this could get China to a better place after the people's fatigue with lockdowns that is similar to what happened in the US getting the US to where it is today.

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$148 billion in cash savings from tax provisions and full expensing of investments in Big Beautiful Act for 369 companies, Amazon $15.7 billion in cash savings, Microsoft 12.5 billion from Big Beautiful Act 2025. Treasury Secretary Bessent described the full and immediate expensing provisions for investments by companies as a key provision that would take the US economy forward in 2025.

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DW.com report by Mu Ciu shows a CATL(Contemporary Amperex Technology) plant in Arnstadt, Thuringia, in eastern Germany. It will not bridge Germany's technology gap. German and US consultants at the microeconomic level of the company and German and US economists at the macroeconomic level of the economy entirely fail to grasp the effectiveness of China's investment driven model. Of its joint partnering with European and American companies and China's single minded focus on technology access. This is why the DJT US administration has warned Europe that it is failing economically. China's macroeconomic and microeconomic model are run by the same authority by the state, and according to goals and plans (which in a socialist economy is weak at the microeconomic company level lacking the initiative and freedom of action). By combining its macreconomic framework run by the state with a micreconomic company level run by the state but on free market lines the Chinese investment driven model has dual advantages and operates at a speed that far surpasses the German and American model. It's society suffers as a consequence, but in few short decades 1990-2009/2020 this is all it could accomplish with a single focus on modernization for what was once a peasant agricultural economy. Where it lacks is in future technology access and as long as weak companies in the US and Germany partner with Chinese companies the technology access for Chinese companies give it the essential ingredient for its investment model to work, as American and European companies can waver in investment Chinese companies backed by the government will not waver in investment and have the clear advantage. DJT's approach is to give a big shock to the entire system of world trade now run by China, so that this is no longer going to work at the macroeconomic level and legislate huge investment incentives for one time depreciation and other moves to get American companies to invest. It wants Europe to do the same, including getting rid of the bureaucratic structures and regulations. German Chancellor Merz is getting the message and is acting quickly first with the trillion dollar investment plan, the meetings with Draghi and Meloni to get Italy and like minded nations on board, and internal efforts to get rid of regulations and bureaucratic structures, and building a new partnership with India to remove an error of Merkel/ Clinton+ Obama in excessive concentration and dependence on China. This requires a steady hand and steady governments, steady policy, and companies in America, Europe and India to work together for the long haul without wavering or delay, to rebuild the world economy along new lines and on a new path. ...

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Canada, Australia, India, Brazil have some of the largest reserves of rare earth and critical minerals. Brazil has second largest reserves. This means the US can still change the current situation of a near monopoly on critical minerals by China in coming years by making the necessary investments early in these countries and in the US itself. Here is the situation in Brazil for rare earths. Brazil has said it will be open to investments that place a priority on rare earths processing within Brazil, not just rare earths commodity exports for processing in the EU or the US. China does most of the processing of rare earths in China, it imports heavily from Burma, Indonesia, Australia and Africa and does nearly 100% of the processing in China using research labs and production facilities funded by PRC government. Yet the search for and development of supplies of rare earths and critical minerals is still at an early stage so that with the necessary investments including in India, Indonesia, Australia, Brazil, in Africa, and in the US, the US and Germany, EU, India can change this situation by 2030. Brazil hold 21 million tons of reserves of rare earths, about a quarter of world rare earths reserves. Just in the last 3 years since 2023 3000 permits have been filed with Brazil's National Mining Agency compared to 500 in years before this. Australia and India are also catching up in rare earths minerals investment. Australian producers Viridis and Meteoric are doing advanced work in Pocos de Caldas mining area in Brazil. Canada is doing a project in Golas state. US company Rare Earth is putting $2.8 billion in Serra Verde. All this is being pushed forward by fast track investing supported by the DJT US government. Serra Verde historically sent rare earths in commodity form to China. Now DJT administration has setup private and public financing for a 15 year supply agreement to the US. Australia's Viridis can also get funding from IDFC operated by the US with discussions underway. Viridis's $360 million  Colossus project in Brazil sends rare earth in commodity form to a French-Belgian processing company in the EU. Brazil cannot afford to be too restrictive when it comes to processing- though that remains its goal -as Brazil wants to use its advantages in rare earths to increase investments and export earnings to support its slowing economy. Over time Brazil as part of this western hemisphere and as shown in "Brazil no Espelhos" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes, discussed in the adjoining piece on Brazil, is a part of the same social fabric of the Americas and its economic structure, its supply chains, its business, its democratic framework and processes. ...

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"Brazil no Espelho" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes is cited by Brian Winter of Americas Quarterly in 2026 just before the October 2026 election. Lula has had a good run in the last 4 years with 3% growth of the economy, improvement in working class transfers and low unemployment. Lula's drawback is he is turning 80 years, and the Brazil of today is changing in its social aspects into one that is becoming more faith oriented. With evangelical Christianity on the rise and now about 30% of the people, including in the poorer areas of cities once supporting tax and transfers policies of Lula such as Bolsa Familia. Asked about their faith Brazilians are exception in the world for numbers Nunes shows can be found nowhere else- over 95% saying they are believers that their faith is the most important aspect of their life. Brazilians are also putting family first. There is a certain fatigue with the state supporting the economic lives of people, particularly with a recent Master Banco revelations of wrongdoing in business circles, reminder of the Car Wash Scandal after Lula left office. Brazilians say working for oneself is more important than working for the government. Brazil's economy is also transformed in many ways in its size and potential since the start of the Lula government in 2003. Brazil is now the 9th largest economy in the world, growing similar to India as the 3rd largest. The notions of left and right wing politics are now in both countries being replaced with a belief in a higher Being that guides us all. The ideas of Faith, Family and Work independent of the State is the direction in the European Union and other nations in the world.  Brazil as part of the Western hemisphere, and the US asserting the Monroe Doctrine after its experience with drugs and fentanyl, mass migration across its borders, it is now a different hemisphere than before. The US has shifted to securing the western hemisphere from the swings that happened in Cuba and Venezuela over decades that have led to economic disaster, and to millions of displaced Venezuelans crossing borders. In this situation much has changed across Latin America and North America.  In any situation the US is likely to find a favorable investment climate in Brazil, closer relations with Brazil, in its own hemisphere, as it has with India in Asia. A Brazil that would work to give balance to the US process of economic cooperation with Latin America that was the intent of John F. Kennedy in the Alliance for Progress. A vision never realized, put on hold for over 50 years, yet now ready to be realized. ...

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UAW's Shawn Fain's support of US 25% auto tariffs April 2, 2025. Fain says-“We applaud the Trump administration for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working class communities for decades.” US president Biden supported the UAW, even standing in a picket line to support UAW negotiate a contract for fair wages for workers with the three US automakers, Ford, GM and Stellantis. For decades workers in the US faced the threat of outshoring to Mexico to reduce wages. This action on tariffs will increase depressed wages for American workers in the same way that president Biden's action helped negotiate better wages. In this sense both Biden and DJT are on the same track. In fact president Biden 2020-2024 decided to keep most of the tariffs put up by president Trump in 2016-2020. It is likely that a future Democratic administration will continue DJT tariff policies to achieve domestic goals such as fair wages for American workers, and for rebuilding American manufacturing in the way president Biden has done. This is in fact one of the singular achievements of the Biden administration for building the working class and middle class neglected by Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. On this issue both Biden, Trump and any future US president will be on the same page, because it is about fair trade, to even the playing field, and is right by American workers and American values. History will show that this required courage and persistence on the part of Biden and DJT, and was done not on whim as is falsely portrayed but on the advice of people who had the experience, wisdom and sought the best for America such as Robert Lighthizer ,the US Trade Representative in 2016-2020 and his deputy Jamieson who is the USTR in 2025. Lighthizer is notable because he handled the unfair trade with the Japanese in the 1980's as Deputy USTR under Reagan, and knows fair trade and how to get it to build a strong American economy. ...

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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China's consumer prices declined by 0.3% in July. There are signs that the economy is slowing. A deflationary trend is taking shape with buyers declining to spend following layoffs at companies, higher unemployment and less growth. Expectations of falling prices could further sap demand worsening the debt situation in China. China's economy has grown in the last decade by assuming ever larger debt burden. The debt in 2022 was three times the GDP of China. Servicing this debt becomes harder when consumer demand is weak. The situation in the US is different with the central bank the US Fed increasing interest rates to lower inflation from 9% in 2022 to 3.2% in July, and expectations of a drop ion inflation with lower shelter costs in rest of 2023.

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The S&P 500 index gained 5.9% the week of October 29th for its best gain since November 2022. For 2023 it has gained 14%. A jobs report showing less job growth of 150,000 slightly higher unemployment at 3.9% and slowing inflation, led the US Fed to pause raising interest rates. This has created optimism that inflation would gradually decline which is good for the economy.

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Households and businesses have built up trillions of dollars in extra savings and the economic recovery looks strong says this report in the WSJ. Experts expect the economy to pass pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter of 2021. From this point the economy can recover the pre-pandemic trajectory of growth for 2022. There is a bit of caution about another wave of the coronavirus with new more contagious variants considering that about half the population still remains unvaccinated. The US has enough vaccine supplies, it is the anti-vax sentiment that could be the problem. Even with this bit of caution the economy appears resilient.

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Japanese prime minister Kishida joins president Biden in deciding not to run again with low popularity ratings and cost of living concerns of the public. The LDP administration of prime minister Kishida put through a $100 billion investment package to revive the economy in November 2023. In the first quarter of 2024 the Japanese economy GDP growth suffered from a 0.7% decline. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida of the LDP party popularity has remained at around 25% and Kishida has decided not to run again for prime minister. His term expires in 2025. A new LDP leader will be elected. This report says growing voices in the LDP party persuaded Kishida not to run and have a new leader. Inflation which was tame for over a decade has increased with surging prices for oil and gas after the Ukraine war. The situation is similar to the US and EU where rising prices have hurt ordinary people struggling to make a living. Kishida committed Japan to investing 2% of GDP on defense. The effects of economic developments is that the Japanese currency is weakening. ...

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Le Monde publishes the speech JD Vance gave at the Munich Security Conference with it says added context and explanation. It is useful because it is easy to make hasty judgements in one direction or another. The focus here is on immigration to EU and to the US, a sore point. Vance does not mention a bigger sore point - the lack of recognition worldwide to the 490,000 American lives lost in the illegal flow of fentanyl into the US without needed action from CMC Canada, Mexico and China. And business as usual carried on by these countries and the European Union, and a failure to act by the US.  JD Vance said- "And of all the pressings—challenges that the nations represented here face, I believe there is nothing more urgent than mass migration. Today, almost one in five people living in this country moved here from abroad. That is, of course, an all-time high. It’s a similar number, by the way, in the United States—also an all-time high. The number of immigrants who entered the EU from non-EU countries doubled between 2021 and 2022 alone. And, of course, it’s gotten much higher since.And we know the situation, it didn’t materialize in a vacuum. It’s the result of a series of conscious decisions made by politicians all over the continent, and others across the world, over the span of a decade." Fact Check- About 14 million of Germany's 84.5 million people are foreign nationals according to Destatis. This is 16.6% of Germany's population. Vance rounds it off to 20% not 17%. In the US there are 47.8 million people who are foreign born or 14.3% of the population in 2023. It increased by 1.6 million from 2022 to 2023, much of it coming from Venezuela and Central American failed states from left parties mismanaging the economy for hyperinflation and from gang violence. In 2022 EU member states welcomed 1.8 million Ukrainian nationals that was only 100,000 in 2021, which is two thirds of the increase. The reason for Vance's doubling. A similar situation happened in the US with Venezuela as a failed state with hyper inflation into 1000 percent inflation leading to migration to other Latin American countries and into the US during the Biden administration. Some of this happened because sanctions made things worse, mismanagement of the economy. A similar migration happened from Syria into the EU member states as a result of the civil war.     ...

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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US public companies, manufacturers and retailers that make up more than half of the S&P 500 index, came out with strong sales per share of 24% increase in 2022 over 2019. This means slower growth is expected ahead in 2023, says Justin Lahart in the WSJ.  The shift to consuming more services such as dentist visits and tourism from buying washing machines and appliances will mean slower sales for these large companies that are manufacturers and retailers. Fed chairman Jay Powell's higher interest rates will also limit growth in sales in 2023. Overall the US economy may barely skirt a recession, and this depends on which forecaster one talks to.