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The British Embassy in Tehran is stormed on Nov. 29, 2011, by protesters from the student wing of the Basij militia, a volunteer militia organized by the Islamic government to protect the governing party loyal to Ayatollah Khamanei. This comes after Britain joined the U.S. and Canada in sanctions against the Iran for nuclear weapons development. The sanctions will keep Iran's banking sector out of the U.K. financial system.

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The U.S. oil sanctions on Iran reduce flows of Iranian oil and create the possibility of conflict in the Straits of Hormuz where oil tankers carry supplies from Middle East producers to other countries. The sanctions lead to the unwinding of the nuclear deal Iran negotiated with the Obama administration. Another sign of how a change in administration leads to a reversal of policies and continued involvement of the U.S. in the region in different and unpredictable ways.

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The U.S. and the EU join together for stronger economic sanctions on Russia. The sanctions affecting large Russian banks ability to raise capital in financial markets are likely to affect the Russian economy. Russia was suspended for export credit and development finance. VTB Bank was one of three more Russian banks added to the list of banks with economic sanctions. The EU took similiar action against Russian state owned banks and imposed an arms embargo in July end 2014.

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weeks before the trump Kim Jong-Un summit talks in Hanoi, Vietnam, it was evident to the team of U.S. diplomats, sanctions specialists, nuclear experts, that there was a major stumbling block. North Korea wanted much more relief from sanctions than the U.S. was prepared to give in return for a limited denuclearization in North Korea. Still the talks went ahead on the basis of the personal chemistry between Trump and Kim Jong-Un. But former U.S. officials say that in this situation the differences were too big to be solved on the basis of personal rapport alone. For some time ahad of the summit talks in Hnoi the U.S. had already eased its position reports the WSJ, so that the U.S. was no longer insisting that North Korea largely denuclearize during Mr. Trump's current term in office. a full accounting of North Korea's nuclear programs was not required at the start of negotiations. North Koreans also came up with options to close the Yongbyon nuclesr complex. The sticking point was that major sanctions relief was expected without other nuclear facilities being listed for inspection and denuclearization. ...

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Zeit Online shows in this article the continued efforts of the Russian government of president Putin to discredit Chancellor Merkel, following efforts to do this for Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.  During the Ukraine crisis and the settlement accords of 2014 Germany was seen as a partner by Russia, following sanctions, and renewal of these sanctions Russia no longer sees Germany as a partner. This report shows Russian efforts to discredit chancellor Merkel and the use of RT German channel, WikiLeaks reports of Chancellor Merkel and the TTIP agreement, for the same purpose. The refugee crisis following what is happening in Syria with Russian involvement, terrorism, financial crisis aftermath from 2008, are being used  says Zeit Online to support a movement for "order" as the state ideology now put forward from the Russian government. This could be an early indicator for the 2017 German federal elections, says Zeit Online. Merkel has said that she supports continuation of western sanctions on Russia. It is hard to see what Russia has gained in improving its economy and the standard of living of the people from this type of political action. Putin was able to achieve economic goals during 2005-2010 using good Germany- Russian relations as shown in LyrArc. This was the earlier period of Putin's terms in office, with a broad group of advisors, including finance minister Kudrin, who set forward a prudent economic course for Russia including foreign investment. The world and Russia are poorer from the departure from this earlier set of policies which would have enhanced Russia's economic growth. Kudrin was fired in September 2011, and the economic course has gradually drifted away from what is most prudent for the Russian economy and growth, and for the global economy. Nationalism was part of an earlier period before 1950, that led to frequent wars and economic catastrophes. A new course has been set since then, especially by American presidents Truman and Eisenhower, and people in India, China, the developing world, in Europe and in the U.S., would see little to gain from the politics of that earlier period in world relations.  ...

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With Russia supplying 10% of the world's oil supplies and about 40% of Europe's natural gas supplies US sanctions on Russia's energy economy would only end up driving inflation higher and hurting the US and Europe. This leaves only a limited role for sanctions acting as a deterrent in the Ukraine crisis giving Russia more room to act in Ukraine.  

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President Trump says before a summit meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea that the U.S. will not make the mistakes of the past where sanctions relief did not stop the North Korean nuclear weapons program. North Korea will be required to substantially give up and dismantle its nuclear program for serious sanctions relief. The North Koreans favor a phased approach. The U.S. will work to make sure that any dismantling of the nuclear program is such that it is irreversible, so that earlier mistakes where the North Kroeans simply restarted the nuclear work are not repeated.

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Higher oil production in Saudi Arabia in 2012 as the Saudis support U.S. sanctions against Iran.

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U.S. toughens sanctions on Iran saying it would impose sanctions on all countries if they did not cut oil imports to zero by Nov. 4. Earlier expectation was that the U.S. would give waivers to countries that had made substantial progress to cut oil imports. In the past 20% cut in imports earned waivers in the Obama administration. U.S. is asking other Middle Eastern producers to increase production to meet demand. Banks refusal to finance trades is causing Indian Oil and Italy's Saras to cut oil imports from Iran.

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Iranian missiles and drones flying low and close to the ground avoided detection by Saudi and American air defense systems. The missiles and drones hit Saudi oil facilities stopping about half of the Saudi oil production. Iranian cruise missile technology was used for the attack, according to U.S. officials. The attack also showed how vulnerable the oil supplies from this region are to disruption. The U.S. is not dependent on Saudis for oil as it has increased its production from shale. China, Japan, South Korea and India are dependent on Saudi oil supplies. Yet the U.S. is shouldering a greater burden for ensuring reliable supplies to Asian countries, something the Trump administration sees it should be compensated for. Tougher sanctions on Iranian oil hurt its economy, resulting in actions taken by Iran to disrupt Saudi oil supplies. The Saudi intervention in Yemen is another source of tensions in the region. The Trump administration says it is not interested in endless wars in the region, yet its tougher oil sanctions on Iran are pulling it into the conflict in unpredictable ways. China, India, and other countries had sought sanctions waivers to import Iranian oil, and see the sanctions as hurting oil supplies. India with limited supplies of its own was affected by the oil sanctions. ...

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This NYT report by Clifford Krauss cites senior diplomats in the Bush and Obama administration showing Rex Tillerson as a business executive with the skills needed to take a new approach to U.S.- Russian relations damaged by issues such as Ukraine and Syria that led to western sanctions. During Ukraine crisis and sanctions on Russia in 2014 Tillerson did not personally go to Russia, yet continued to negotiate through his exploration chief at ExxonMobil. Other experts such as Mr. Offenheiser of Oxfam America, see Tillerson as facing a quandary of transacting short term deals versus his responsibility to strengthen western institutions, human rights and economic hope for so many. 

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Erdbrink describes the evolution of trade relations with China which helped Iran during the period of western sanctions. Because of trade with the U.S. and western partners, China was careful to use the Bank of Kunlun, created to handle financial transactions with Iran, for import of oil and export of automobiles and other products.

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China has emerged as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, in the face of sanctions by the Trump administration to cut Iranian oil exports. China has replaced French company Total for the Pars oil field. It is investing heavily in Iranian oil industry. Iran has offered a 12% discount for China's oil supply needs. China has promised to invest $280 billion in the Iranian oil industry and is seeking to pull Iran into its Belt and Road Initiative. India also seeks to continue its oil trading relationship with Iran, in the face of U.S. sanctions.

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As part of sanctions on Russia the price of diesel will be capped at $100 by the US and the rest of the G-7 countries.

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The Editorial Board of the WSJ says in this editorial that president Trump showed his negotiating skills to arrange the oil deal with the Saudis and Russia for cuts in production of 9.7 million barrels a day, including cuts by non OPEC G20 countries. The drop in U.S. production, cuts by Canada and the effects of sanctions on Venezuela and Iran should take out about 20 million barrels a day. Demand has fallen by 30 million barrels a day from the pandemic. This should help 11 million workers in the U.S. oil industry.

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Israel's prime minister Netayahu and U.S. president Obama move further apart with serious disagreement on when to impose further sanctions on Iran for nuclear weapons development. Netanyahu accepts an invitation from Speaker Boehner to address the U.S. Congress in 2015. Republicans face a serious divide with the U.S. president with serious disagreements in domestic policy, including immigration, taxes, and ways of addressing increasing inequality.

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European companies rushed to make new business investment in Iran after the lifting of Iran sanctions with the Iran Nuclear Deal in 2015. This report in the NYT shows companies in Europe were wary that the nuclear detente with Iran would not last. As a result the European exports to Iran up to $12.8 billion in 2017 were up 30% but still ranked Iran as the 33rd largest trading partner, behind Serbia. Other problems were bureaucratic hurdles and a lack of coordination in Iran for moving ahead with projects. After the deal was signed companies such as Peugeot, Airbus, Total, Daimler moved ahead to invest in Iran. Yet the investments were made carefully considering the opposition of the Trump administration. In one deal Airbus agreed to provide 100 new aircraft for Iran Air's aging fleet, yet only 3 were delivered by May 2018. Daimler had a deal with Iran's Khodro vehicle maker for Fuso brand trucks, yet Daimler officials say demand was weak. A deal made by Total to explore for offshore natural gas may require a waiver under a "grandfather clause" say Total officials, or the option to turn over the investment to its minority partner CNPC, a Chinese state owned company. The U.S. ambassador to Germany, Mr. Grennell, says European companies should stop operations in Iran immediately showing the U.S. plans to take stronger action.  ...

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Huawei is ready with a new operating system to replace Android following sanctions placed by the U.S. on use of American technology. The new operating system is called HarmonyOS. Huawei says it can switch to this in "just one or two days." 

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The U.S. responds to criticism by opening a humanitarian trade channel to Iran. This permits tade in medical supplies, agricultural commodities and basic necessities without risking U.S. sanctions penalties. Swiss based firms are allowed to use the process setup by the U.S.

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The Russian ruble goes over 40 to the U.S. dollar in October 2014, with the impact of capital outflows, the weakening foreign investment climate and western sanctions.

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The inflation worse than Germany in the Great Depression, and the collapse of the economy made worse by US sanctions of Democratic and Republican administrations on Venezuela's Maduro regime has led to the largest migration in the history of Latin America. About 7 million refugees leaving a country of about 28 million people or a fourth of the population in a large oil producing country. Socialist Policies of Bolivarist military leaders promoting populism such as oil at pennies a gallon led to the collapse spiralling inflation, and as relations worsened with the US and its oil sector was neglected. US sanctions played a part by 2012. Yet the economy worsened with further deterioration and stronger sanctions under the Trump administration by 2017.  The situation is such that even the US and both parties had never anticipated this, and not the middle and educated, or the working classes in Venezuela. Such a massive failure has never happened in Latin America in its whole history in the twentieth century. Considering the scale of this disaster, actions of all parties in Venezuela, and the political parties in the US have at every step exacerbated the situation. For further interest on this topic use search term Venezuela. ...

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The world today is in a much better position to complete the transition to zero dependence on the volatile Middle East for oil. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US   2. China  3. India  4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (India through waivers for Russian sources). European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources. US is self sufficient in oil and gas and exports oil to the UK, India, Germany and the European Union. Canada is self sufficient. Germany gets only 6% of its oil from the Middle East, the UK 12%, Spain 13% and Italy 14%. The Iran war is likely to shift more of the needs of UK, Spain and Italy to other more stable sources including oil from the US and Venezuela managed by the US, and other sources. This means that US policymakers can act in the best interests of all the nations of the world for preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and long range ballistic missiles. Germany is moving rapidly to renewable energy and this could bring its dependence on the Middle East to zero. India will meet its needs from Russia for the time being till it also shifts to oil from US+ Venezuela. India get 55% of its oil from the Middle East or about 2.7 million b/d. Russia was an important source of oil for India till the US trade agreement called for it to shift- a 30 day waiver and extension means India can get this oil from Russia without sanctions for the duration of the war. Reducing European demand and Indian demand frees up oil for Japan and South Korea on the world market the other 2 countries dependent on Middle East oil- Japan importing 95% of its oil consumption with imports of 2.5 million b/d and South Korea importing about 2 million b/d or 70% of its consumption. This means Japan and South Korea need a new strategy as they are overexposed to one source just as Germany was and learned a difficult lesson to diversify its sources. Japan has learned to reduce consumption for the same level of GDP and some of this can be through conservation, also tried in Germany in the last 4 years. During the 4 years. of Ukraine war Germany had to find ways to diversify sources Japan and South Korea will need rapidly to do the same in the Iran War. This means that only Japan and South Korea because of their lack of policy direction and vigilance have allowed this overdependence on the Gulf region,  (even as Germany diversified its sources, DJT and Israel were firm on nuclear weapons policy) they failed to see signs that they should diversify. Today in 2026 the world's largest nations 1. US 2. China 3. India 4. Germany are all free of Middle East oil (Indi through waivers for Russian sources), European Union and UK is at about 12% which can be quickly substituted from the US+ Venezuela and other sources.    ...

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Richard Haas and Michael Levi of the Council on Foreign Relations suggest a path of negotiations for a peaceful settlement of the Iran crisis. Haas points to the difficulties in solving the impasse in the crisis through solutions based entirely either on military options or on expanded sanctions. The merit of this approach, says Haas, would also be to demonstrate that the U.S. and the E.U nations have done their best to come up with a negotiated outcome.