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Ayad Allawi, a former prime minister of Iraq, describes the situation in the country for democracy and for sectarian unity as Nuri al-Maliki begins his second term as prime minister. He points to the dire situation created in Iraq with the exclusion of elected Sunni representatives from the government of Iraq by Mr. Maliki and his sectarian based party.

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Helene Cooper and Worth point to the vacillating response to the Arab Spring and movement for democracy and freedom in the Middle East of the Obama administration and President Obama. The dangerous overtones of this lack of U.S. leadership in the region as the U.S. completes a withdrawal from Iraq without an agreement for a residual presence, sees diplomacy reaching an impasse with Iran's development of nuclear weapons, and the Syrian civil war drawing in Turkey with its long border with Syria, and drawing in Saudi Arabia as a defendor of Sunnis in Syria. The stakes for Russia in Syria were minimal compared to that of people in the Middle East and the U.S., yet it had an outsized influence with its early military assistance to the Assad regime and the lack of U.S. leadership to resolve the situation in Syria in favor of the democracy movement.

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Trofimov of the WSJ says the action by Saudi Arabia for execution of 47 persons most of them involved with Al Qaeda from tribes, including a Shiite cleric Nemer al-Nemer who led Arab Spring type protests in eastern Saudi Arabia, was meant as much to appeal to domestic conservative Sunni opinion as it was as a counter to Iran. The government of Saudi Arabia increased spending on social benefits after the Arab Spring in 2011, yet was forced to increase prices of some grades of gasoline by 50% at gas stations to conserve financial resources from its $640 billion sovereign wealth fund. The Saudis and the Russians are on opposite sides of the Syria-Iraq war, with the Saudis holding down oil prices as part of the geopolitics of the region, which led to the budget cuts in Saudi Arabia in 2015-2016. Conservative Sunni opinion in the country favors stronger action by the Saudi government against Russian and Iranian intervention in Syria and Iraq, according to Trofimov.

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The insurgency remains strong in Mosul, a city dominated by Turkmen Sunnis.

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About Kurdish attempts to negotiate with foreign oil companies for oil exploration on Kurdish territory within Iraq. Fears of the Sunni minority and the concerns of the Shiite controlled government's oil ministry in Baghdad.

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Some of the roots of the Alawite role in Syria go back to the colonial period. Alawites are a Muslim sect living in the coastal mountainous region of Syria in towns such as Tartus, Latakia and in the mountains. The French setup a Alawite state in 1924-1936 before it was merged with the rest of Syria. The Russians have set up a small naval base in Tartus. As the Free Syrian Army reaches Damascus and suburbs the Assad regime is expected to move to Tartus and the coastal region and mountains. This account by NYT reporters from the area reveal the unreal nature of the conflict and the Assad regime. The seaside town of Tartus swells with people fleeing Damascus and other cities, with people from the Assad regime or allied to it, and the real estate market booms. During the same week other accounts in the NYT reported accounts of cluster bombs being used against civilians by the Assad regime. The civil war brought artillery attacks and air raids by the predominantly Alawite Assad military regime on mostly Sunni civilian populations thorough most of 2012. The Russians, the Assad military and public officials, living what may be the last weeks of this civil war as it takes on a sectarian nature, in some kind of bubble. From the international community only France, Turkey, Britain, and Egypt may retain credibility in Syria after the passive role of the U.S. under president Obama to the struggle for freedom in Syria. The U.S. Democratic administration's distaste for engagements overseas may have carried it to the point of standing by as artillery was turned against a civilian population. France and Britain's role in the Libyan people's struggle, and its lower profile assistance to the freedom struggle in Syria compared to the earlier effort under president Sarkozy, still creates a measure of respect. A no fly zone by the U.S. would have prevented the destruction to civilian population that occurred and salvaged U.S. respect, at very little cost relative to the one trillion dollars spent in Iraq and Afghanistan....

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The town of Akcakale near a border crossing which was taken over by the Free Syria Army has an Arab population and is friendly to the Sunni opposition. The feeling here is that it was hit deliberately by the Assad regime because of ties with the Free Syria Army. The government of prime minister Erdogan in Turkey has gained parliamentary approval for war powers to enter foreign countries after the shelling of Akcakale.

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Egyptian president Morsi appoints a new defense minister and two leading generals are asked to retire and continue as advisers. Because Gen. Tantawi was 76, and the new defense minister who comes from the military body the SCAF is 58, it appears to observers that this is a shift to a new generation within the military. In the background is the situation in Syria with the Assad military regime at risk of falling in a civil war, and the focus of Sunni nations in the Middle East and the U.S. on Iran, which could have led to a U.S. effort led by Secretary of State Panetta during his recent visit to mediate between the different factions for a rapprochement. The rapprochement would benefit the retired generals and the military to continue operating businesses that constitute about 25% of the economy, a younger generation in the military better able to adapt to the changes in the Middle East to assume control under civilian leadership, for the Muslim Brotherhood and other political parties the reversing of military decrees subverting the election results, and for the U.S., Sunni nations in the Middle East and European allies better able to focus on the situation with Iran. For all side a win-win negotiation through efforts by Leon Panetta....

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Relations between Iran and Arab Sunni states Saudi Arabia and UAE are improving especially as Arabs distance themselves from the Bush Administration after faulty inelligence estimates about Iran were corrected by the CIA concluding that Iran wasnot pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The Arab Sunni states arenot altogether happy with the US policy in Iraq and Palestine. Note that that even before this there is a stron economic link between UAE and Iran. About 400,000 Iranian expatriates live in the Emirates and 9000 part Iranian owned firms are registered with the Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Industry. One look at the map show why Dubai is closest to Iran just a short strip of water dividing the two countries. This bodes well for oil prices as any volatility in the region would only increase pressure on oil prices. Peace in the Gulf region would do a lot to decrease the volatility affecting oil prices. It would also give Iran confidence to address its own role as a supplier by modernizing its oil industry. See the link to Mexico where President Calderon wants to transform Pemex and Mexico's oil industry over 10 years after Petrobras was pushed into reform by President Cardozo in Brazil. Commerce and Industry...

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Iran's (IRGC's not the people of Iran who are protesting) strategy in talks is to stall peace talks, to use the help of global media which is creating perception for Iran, and see if the strategy of no nuclear materials turned over to Russia or some other country, see if that strategy works. This is  what German Foreign Minister Wadephul is saying on Day 16 of the Naval Blockade. Earlier this week German chancellor Merz called it unfortunate that the Iran War is continuing in explaining to ordinary Germans why the German economy is slowing down, yet he understands the danger posed by nuclear weapons in Iran or for that matter anywhere inthe volatile and explosive Middle East. Almost like the volatile and explosive Balkans that ignited World War I in 1914. This strategy of IRGC Iran does much irreparable damage to the Iranian economy in weeks to come. Iranian protests were intended to put the economy on a new path in which not just students, the middle class in the bazaars, the younger generation of Iranians who had the most to lose participated. Why is this happening? It is happening because of the complicated politics of the Middle East and centuries old differences within the Islamic world between different sectarian beliefs and cultures. It is not happening because of the US. The US cannot be responsible for what colonial empires of the British and French did in this region in the 1920's by creating artificial states of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, out of the Arab portion of the collapsed Ottoman Empire defeated in World War I with Shia, Sunni populations in these states mixed up into unmanageable states. Five decades of wars in the Middle East are the result of these unmanageable artificial states of French and British Empires by 1921. The British Empire also controlled Iran in the 1900's and its oil resources. There was no involvement of America as the British and French did what they wanted to do even in the Treaty of Versailles that ended WWI.  The fall of the pro-Soviet Mossadegh regime in 1956 was the only fragmentary situation which is an anti Soviet Cold War move by the US in 1952, and was done by a group that had British connections deep inside the Eisenhower administration led by Secretary of State John Foster Dulles that took this unfortunate step for America (looking back over  5 decades of wars). A British oriented group was active inside the Republican party that continued to operate in the Reagan administration's involvement in support for Iraq in its war with Iran. And which no longer exists in the Republican party led by DJT which puts America First, grasps the fact of unmanageable states of British and French Empires and seeks to distance the US from the Middle East. Gandhi and Patel (and Jinnah) avoided the creation of such a state in British India's partition into India and Pakistan. Afghanistan is simply an extension of this Middle Eastern complicated setup, including 9/11. Why is all this important? Arab Middle East is a dangerous place for nuclear weapons- this is all the US is trying to accomplish, thankfully without the cooperation of the British and French whose Empires are responsible for the creation of a hodge podge mix of peoples in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq which (check this out) never existed before British and French Mandates of 1921. The global and American media that sees DJT Republicans as too conservative on cultural issues and the political establishment intending to return to power have completely obscured or not presented this side of the Middle East, yet is key to devising a policy that keeps America out of Middle East wars but keeps the goal of no nuclear weapons in this powderkeg of a region. ...

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Ami Ayalon, a former director of Israel's Security Agency (Shin Bet), proposes that Netanyahu take the small tangible steps in the direction of a two state solution for Palestine. He says this would lay the groundwork for reduction in tensions in the Middle East by aligning Saudi Arabia and other Sunni States, Turkey, Israel and the U.S., towards a lasting settlement. Ayalon refers to two changes in the Middle East that others have observed- the street is exercizing major influence on events in the Middle East and this presents an opportunity to defuse a lasting irritant in the form of treatment of Palestinians. The Iranian Shiite influence in Iran and Iraq provides Sunni and other Muslim states an incentive for serious and lasting settlement of the differences with Israel. These are two influences that present opportunities to move forward, says Ayalon. Adding that if Netanyahu fails to grasp this and make serious moves in negotiations, Israelis should vote him out of office. The move he is calling for is for Israel to declare it has no sovereignty claims over areas east of the security fence built in the West Bank. A voluntary evacuation and compensation would take place and settlers who stay would have some form of assured status under the agreement. The Israel Defense Force would remain in the area till a firm agreement with guarantees is put in place....

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Friedman points to the parallel between the democracy movements in Eastern Europe and the Arab World, and sees one difference. Whereas the countries in Eastern Europe were mostly homogenous except for Yugoslavia, the countries in the Arab world are homogenous only in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco. Which makes the transition to democracy that much harder with sectarian interests, the Sunni-Shiite divide, tribal differences, and the lack of a transition period for building democratic institutions. This will require vision, leadership and perseverance from Arab peoples and from the outside world.

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Friedman reports that Saudi Arabia and Quatari support to the Free Syrian Army is not intended to promote democracy. The Saudis and the Quataris want to support fellow Sunnis and promote conservative religious values.

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This article by General James Jones is the second from the highest ranks of the Obama administration, saying the entire Middle East policy of U.S. president Obama was flawed and could lead to dangerous consequences. Gen. Jones, former National Security Advisor to Obama 2009-2010, says the situation today is worse than in 1991 when the U.S. launched Operation Provide Comfort to protect Kurdish refugees in Northern Iraq from Saddam Hussein, with an engagement of about 5 years and 25,000 Allied troops. Jones says the crisis in Iraq and Syria is of an order several times worse than 1991 and at any time since the 2003 invasion, as it involves the setup of a terrorist ISIS state in the heart of the Middle East. What went wrong? Jones says all the warnings from other Middle East nations about Maliki's corrupt policy and sectarianism used to stay in power turned to be true. Even Maliki's own advisors and colleagues say in a separate report by Matt Bradley that Maliki battled not for the Iraqi state but only to preserve his own power. Jones calls the U.S. president's decision not to act in Syria when the "red line" of use of chemical weapons was crossed, the failure to maintain a limited military training presence in Iraq after 2011, and not insisting that Mr. Maliki arm the Kurds, as having gravely aggravated the problem in 2014. Jones calls for arming the Kurds directly with sufficient weaponry for defending their region and providing immediate expanded aid to the Abadi government, appointment of a special envoy to ensure direct and immediate communications with Baghdad and with Kurdish, Sunni and Shiite leaders. He calls also for close air support of Iraqi and Kurdish operations, and an aggressive diplomatic effort to unify the Middle Eastern nations to remove ISIS from the region. Jones says this is the right thing to do in the name of all the Iraqi people yearning for peace, for the U.S. service personnel who made sacrifices in Iraq for 23 years, and for U.S. national security....

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Iraq's population is estimated to be 44-46 million, double that of 1997 the last time a census was done in the country. A census is taking place across Iraq to get a better idea of the population. With one Mp for 100,000 people seats in parliament will increase to 450 from 329. Shias share power with Sunnis and Kurds under an arrangement set by the US in 2003.

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The Paris climate change agreement involved 195 countries. Agreed to on December 12, 2015 it was seen as a major step forward to limit global warming to 2 degrees celsius or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. Progress has been slow in taking action since then. Because of covid 19 the Glasgow conference was cancelled. Hope stems from the goals set for carbon neutral economy of Japan, the EU, UK, China, and the U.S. as it enters the agreement after withdrawing.  Much will depend on action taken as the pandemic has pushed economic goals of recovery to the forefront. As India has shown in renewable energy, particularly in solar energy targets and bold vision, there is a lot that can be done by each country acting on its own without the hype of the agreement. India now sees huge opportunities in solar energy because it is cheaper and pollutes less than coal. This is a game changer that comes from investing in new technologies and taking advantage of India's abundant access to sunny weather and the lower labor and other costs. ...

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Afghan warlord of a previous era Hekmatyar is proving difficult to buyout or win over, a strategy pursued with Iraqi insurgents. Younger Taliban insurgents are even harder to convert or buyout. THis raises questions about the chances of this kind of effort succeeding in Afghanistan, especially considering the "allergy" to foreign presence or foreign boots on the ground among Afghan people and the part religious fervour plays. Religious fervour was much less of a factor with Iraqi Sunni insurgents. Add to this the terrain differences, between desert and high mountains, makin the kind of house to house searches and securing of areas extremely difficult.

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Arango and Gordon look at Abadi's background- including long years suffering persecution from the Saddam Hussein government in Iraq, including 2 brothers murdered- and see both hope because of his period of 2 decades spent in London alongside skepticism that he can make the transition to bringing Sunnis and Shiites together.

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The Guardian newspaper takes us through the many charming places in sunny Lisbon and shows us "la vida Portuguesa."  Shown here are the tram ride to Belem, a visit to a bakery, Europe's largest plaza, and Jeronimos monastery in fascinating Instagram pictures. Lisbon is famous also for the museum in honor of the golden age of navigation starting with Vasco Da Gama and the trip around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The Guardian newspaper has an astonishing amount of detail on travel in Portugal and the Iberian peninsula, as Portugal has always been an attractive destination for people in Britain.

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The Guardian gives this story of Khamanei's rule in Iran after 1989. He was made president in 1981 in a landslide win at that time just 2 years after the revolution in 1979 that toppled the Shah of Iran's monarchial regime. Khamanei comes from a the family of a modest cleric in the town of Mashaad who was immersed in the anticolonial writings coming out of Arab North Africa's liberation movements. His policy towards Israel and the US, difficult relations with Arab countries in the neighborhood, and pursuit of nuclear weapons technologies, led Iran to become isolated and face sanctions that hurt its economy and its oil industry for three decades. It created its own version of governing and in setting up proxy militias but this resulted in huge investments diverted from the economy of Iran, neglect of its oil industry and production under western sanctions, that led to economy collapsing and student protests every decade. This expanded in 2025 to broad sections of the population calling for a new direction. Protests were suppressed leading to a disconnect with the people by 2026. To truly understand Iran one has to step back to the 1900's ( as one must also do to understand China or India), as Iran was ruled by the Qajar dynasty at the time. The first Majlis parliament was set up in Iran in 1906 -with the help of "good" Britishers like the British agent in Rajkot who helped send Gandhi to London to study law- wished to see a constitutional setup similar to Britain and limit the powers of the monarchy so that reforms in agriculture and in the civil service could be made. It lasted until 1908. At the time other Britishers in the British Empire both in India and in London sought to maintain British influence and keep out Russian influence. It was not a coincidence that the Majlis lasted only till 1908. That year in 1908 the first discovery of oil in West Asia was made in Khozestan province by George Reynolds, with investor backing of William D'Arcy. The following year 1909 the Anglo-Persian Oil Company( later Anglo Iranian Oil Company and later British Petroleum) was formed. The oil concession was given by the Shah from Qajar dynasty. From that time on Iran became the scene of oil company interests, monarchial interests first under Qajar dynaasty and then under Pahlavis dynasty (which set itself up like Napoleon II in France from humble origins, after 1925 to replace the Qajar dynasty), and the emerging middle class lawyer and civil service, agricultural landowners class, all competing for power and influence in a Asian region with Shihite Islamic embedded in the fabric of the society. Power swung to different groups from 1925 onwards for 5 decades to the 1979 revolution that overthrew the Pahlavi temporary replacement monarchy that worked with British oil interests. West Asia became a meeting point for anticolonial writings emerging from Arab North Africa and other places that took the form of and led to a socialist style anticolonial Baathist influnce that overthrew a monarchy in Baghdad Iraq in the "Free Officers" coup of June 14, 1958 led by Karim Kassem. Out of that Pan Arabic Iraqi mood emerged S. Hussein who with weapons systems imported from the US and Europe initiated the war with Iran in 1980. The Iranian counterrevolutionary movement to Iraq began from that time with the leadership of Khomeni and Khameni from 1981. This is what one has seen swing back and forth in the West Asian region for about 5 decades to 2026, the regional Arab states mostly Sunni monarchies ranged against Iran with its Shiite and also modernizing population. US oil interests in Arab monarchies of the West Asian region from the time of FDR's meeting with Saudi's Faisal in the WWII period clashed with Iranian public interests competing with oil interests (US and British) allied to monarchial interests, and the emergence of Shiite Islamic authority in Iran in these clashes. Iranian public interests that started out with the Majlis and parliaments set up by the "good Britishers" never got a chance in Iran just as the modernizing effort of Sun Yat Sen in China in the 1900's never got a chance in the middle of the surviving monarchy in China by 1910, and the Japanese colonial interests in China from that time competing with the Nationalists Koumintang and the Communist Chinese workers movements emerging in the 1930's, all competing for influence during the Chinese civil war and in its aftermath the emergence of Mao and the CCP of China. This is the situation we in the world face today. ...

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This WSJ editorial points to the damage done in the Middle East by president Obama's inaction in Syria, in human terms with chemical attacks by Assad, the hundreds of thousands of refugees, 100,000 dead, and the Sunnis from Syria who are fighting Iranians and Hezbollah in Iraq creating a new wave of violence in Iraq after years of U.S. effort.

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This report by David Sanger in the NYT cites insiders in the Obama administration suggesting that the Saudis never really considered the peace talks in the region organized by Secretary of State Kerry as a serious effort with the escalation in the bombing by Russia, and other events including Iran's two ballistic missile tests. Turkey was drawn into the conflict with Russian bombing of ethnic Turkish groups at the border with Syria. By ignoring these events affecting Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other countries, the Obama administration appeared to be calling for a peace effort that seemed to have little prospect of succeeding. As Trofimov suggests in a separate report in the WSJ the Saudis were more focussed on winning domestic support from conservative Sunnis, seeing the Obama administration as ineffective on the issue of refugees from Syria and the conditions for the civilian population.