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Japan's new LDP government led by Shinzo Abe approved a stimulus plan of 10.3 trillion yen ($115.7 billion) in Jan 2013. This comes as Japan's current account deficit increased for November to $2.5 billion before seasonal adjustment, reflecting a decline in exports. The Abe administration says this will increase GDP by 2 percentage points from the current forecast of 1.7%.

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The prime ministers of Australia and India at the fourth cricket Test in Ahmedabad's cricket stadium. Modi interacts with India's cricket team.

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Rapidly decling support for Mr Westerwelle and the Free Democratic party he leads in Germany. In the September 2009 elections the FDP won 14.6% of the vote. A Dec 27-30 Stern opinion poll shows only 4% support the FDP. This threatens the Christian Democrats-FDP coalition led by Chancellor Angela Merkel in the coming regional elections. Merkel and the CDP have held onto their support, with 34% saying they support the Christian Democrats, compared to the 33.8% of the vote the CDP won in the Sept 2009 national elections in Germany. Some of the problem lies with Westerwelle who is seen as arrogant and out of touch.The major reason is that in the Merkel coalition the FDP could not implement the tax cuts and other pro-business promises it had made earlier as an opposition party. Merkel is reluctant to move on tax cuts because German help may be needed in the eurozone financial crisis. The 4% showing in the poll puts the FDP below the 5% threshold required to hold seats in Parliament. Losses in regional elections for the Merkel coalition would give the opposition parties and the Social Democrats a bigger majority in the upper house, which would further weaken Merkel's legislative agenda and the credibility of the coalition....

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NATO members except Spain agree to spend 5% on defense, 3.5% on military and 1.5% on defense industry. Germany makes purchase of 35 F-35 fighter aircraft from the US for $8.2 billion in 2025 to be fitted with cruise missiles from Norway. Defense minister Pistorius says Germany has moved with "supersonic speed" on defense capabilities. This a big change from Scholz. New CDU chancellor in coalition with the SPD is Friedrich Merz who with a popular former defense minister Pistorius from the Scholz coalition and the new SPD finance minister in the Merz coalition Lars Kingbeil, is changing the way Germany looks at investing for the future. It has embraced defense of Europe and modernization of German infrastructure. German federal elections gives the coalition of Merz the 28.6 votes percentage of CDU/CSU in addition the SPD's 16.4% for governing with 45% of the vote, and additional 11.6% of SPD's ally the Green Party which supports it outside the coalition for total 57%. For this reason it is a coalition government with real clout to get things done for Germany's modernization. Much of the media focus is on AfD's far right 20.8% but this has been offset by the Left Parties gaining 14% of the vote in the formerly communist East (GDR) where the AfD is based. Thus about 60% of German voters support Merz/Lingbeil/Pistorius for some far reaching action by Merz well into 2030, for the first time since reunification in 1990. To add to this most of Europe including Germany under Merz has embraced a tough line on illegal migration similar to DJT in US so that far right AfD gains from discontent have reached their high point at 20.8%.   ...

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Fumio Kishida, former foreign minister who called for strengthening Japanese missile defenses, and reducing income inequality in Japan, was elected party leader of the ruling LDP party. Kishida is a choice of the Japanese parliament LDP in a runoff, after he was tied with Taro Kano in a vote of LDP party members. As leader of the LDP he will succeed Yoshihide Suga as prime minister. Kishida says a major problem facing Japan was the widening income and wealth gap during the pandemic. "If the profits from growth are monopolized  by a few people, the gap will widen even  further. It's not just abut growth, it's about distribution."  Kishida also favors government spending of hundreds of billions of dollars to boost the economy in Japan after the difficulties with the pandemic.This is similar to the approach on the economy, infrastructure investment and income inequality, taken by president Biden in the US, and vice chancellor Scholz in Germany.    ...

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Youth unemployment and forced migration plays a major role in the Nepal general election. Rapper music Balendra Shah 35 years wins in parliamentary constituency over ex-PM Oli and wins the Nepal general election. He formed the RSP party to voice student protests against PM Oli's government and corruption, which was forced to resign. His goal is to generate 1.2 million jobs and double the per capital GDP from about $1500 to $3000. Nepal reflects the general jump in aspirations of youth across the Indian region. 800,000 young voters voted for the first time.

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Was Merkel right in setting an amendment to the German Constitution to limit the structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. It is called the Schuldenbremse Amendment. It means there is no money to invest in the country's future, no money for infrastructure even when it is old and crumbling for roads, bridges rail stations and airports, no money for digitization of the economy in which Germany has fallen behind, not enough for defense, and no money to fund needs in education, healthcare, childcare. And not enough money to invest in climate change action. Absent this investment the German economy falls behind, jobs become precarious and public dissatisfaction leads to volatile political situation. Like the Republican party in the US which calls for tax cuts and no walk the talk for infrastructure investment, the CDU/CSU and FDP, have a mindset opposing investing in Germany. Investment that the Greens and SPD promised but could not deliver with the FDP in the Scholz /Habeck /Lindner coalition over 4 years. ...

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Shinjiro Koizumi 44 years, and Sanae Takaichi 64 years, contending for leadership of LDP and prime minister in Japan in September 2025, as prime minister Shigeru Ishiba resigns. LDP in Japan faces problems from aging voter base and Japan's voter shifts to nationalist parties. Ishiba faced problems rallying voters as the LDP was seen as having mostly older faces, trade issues with the US, and the cost of living economic security issues.

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China's GDP growth accelerated slightly to 6.9 percent in the 1st quarter of 2017, after five consecutive quarters of GDP growth at 6.7-6.8%, according to government data. This reflected larger use of steel in the construction industry and more mortgages issued by the state controlled banking sector. Government officials say productivity is improving helping GDP growth, with closing of less efficient manufacturing plants. Industrial production increased 7.6% in March 2017, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The government is trying to control higher lending and reduce the backlog of bad loans at banks. Higher growth helps to reduce the bad loans at banks from the earlier period after 2008 financial crisis, improving financial stability.

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Shigeru Ishiba was reappointed LDP party secretary-general in Japan. Ishiba served three terms as defence minister, is popular with the rank and file and the public. He has a good grasp of security issues. He will be the No. 2 person in the cabinet after prime minister Shinzo Abe. Ishiba was the first LDP official to give a specific trading range for the yen by publicly calling for a range of 85 to 90 yen to the dollar. The yen closed at about 85 yen to the dollar on Dec. 25, 2012. Two women join Ishiba and Abe in the leadership positions. Seiko Noda is now chairwoman of the party general council. And six term parliamentarian Sanae Takaichi is policy chief for the LDP.

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The Christian Democrats (CDP) under Angela Merkel received only 23% of the vote in the 2011 Berlin elections. The Free Democrat party (FDP) with 2% of the vote did not reach the 5% threshhold for seats in the Berlin legislature. This was the fifth time the FDP failed to win enough votes to get seats in the regional parliaments. This endangers the CDP-FDP coalition. The FDP campaigned against Merkel's policy of financial support for Greece. The Social Democrats support the euro currency union and issuance of euro bonds, which suggests voters are not choosing parties based on opposition to bailouts of troubled European Union countries. The Social Democrats-Green coalition will have a majority in the state legislature, as the Greens won 18% of the vote. The Pirate party of internet free-speech activists and leftist voters dissatisfied with existing parties were expected to win 9% of the vote, which is a first for regional parliaments for a party of this type. Some of this vote could have increased the Greens vote....

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Phillipe Pons in Le Monde on social media and disinformation popular with young people who have fewer employment prospects in the middle of sluggish economic growth.  Japan's Ministry of Education erasing Japan's wartime atrocities in school books in the years LDP in power since 1950's. Sanae Takaichi's comment about Japan willing to intervene if China attacks Taiwan was popular in Japan. Among young people 18 to 39 surveyed by Yomiuri 64% support Takaichi. Broadly speaking straight talk and nationalism iis becoming popular in Japan. The LDP has lost its majority in the lower and upper house in parliament and the Sanseito party with 15 seats and other smaller nationalist parties are increasing in popularity. The Ministry of Education has for many decades kept the Japanese wartime atrocities such as at Nanjing in China of the 1930's, the harsh Japanese occupation in China and Korea, out of the textbooks. The result is that Japanese young people do not have the same level of grasp of what happened in the twentieth century. ...

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NYT Guest essay on Germany in 2026 with 6 state elections coming up, by Anna Sauerbrey, Editor of Die Zeit German Weekly. German leader Merz is on a 2 day visit to the US and will go over topics- Merz's visit to China, US trade policy after US Supreme Court decision, the war with Iran and German cooperation without being directly involved. Sauerbray looks at the situation in Germany with AfD expected to win in one of the states to form a government, the decline of the SDP and the role CDU now plays in Germany. The shift in mood to tight control over migrant entry in Europe.

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The German parliament voted overwhelmingly in favor of sending heavy weapons to Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues in eastern and southern Ukraine. The German parliament voted on Thursday, April 28, marking a major shift in policy for Germany with 586 in favor and 100 opposed, and 7 abstaining. Military aid should continue and accelerate wherever possible says the proposal that was passed with the backing of the ruling coalition of Greens, SDP and FDP, and backed by the largest opposition party the Christian Democrats (CDU). The far right AfD opposed the proposal. The proposal also foresees an appeal to China for it to "abandon its acceptance of war" and actively support a truce, says this report in DW.com.

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IEA Director Fatih Birol says conservation of energy plans should be undertaken by all nations. He says Gulf countries and Saudi oil output will not be the same even when the war ends and the shipping lanes in the Hormuz Straits will not be handling the volumes of 100 ships that passed through the sea channel before the Iran War. Yet he says the best solution is for opening the Straits of Hormuz. This raises some serious questions about depending on the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for oil supplies in 2027 and beyond. Can conservation, new sources of oil, acceleration of renewable energy use and electric car technologies lead to making the Middle East oil supplies becoming redundant, doing without this supply or turning it into a marginal source which would lower oil prices even further to the $50 level? Energy use decline for the same or higher GDP levels have potential in the US, China and India. Japan and Germany have cut energy use by about 50% in Japan and 35% in Germany with slightly higher Real GDP levels than 1996 in Japan and a 50% increase in Germany over a 30 year period( using 2015 as base year).  Major renewable energy gains have been made in the last 10 years with solar and wind technologies and electric car technologies. Much of the gains in electric car technologies lies ahead and this would cut crude oil significantly for cars and trucks which makes up 60-70% of oil use. Add to this conservation technologies. Other sources of oil can be found. And Venezuelan, Alaskan oil can be ramped up to replace volatile sources from the Middle East.  ...

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Unstable politics and government in Japan as three prime ministers from the DPJ party are followed by Shinzo Abe of the LDP party.

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Shinzo Abe is determined to avoid the mistakes made during his last term as prime minister 2006-2007, which lasted only 10 months and ended with defeat in the upper house elections. The LDP is aware that it won by a landslide because of the splintered opposition. The LDP won only 40% of the vote in the electoral districts in Japan. His focus will be on the economy, on tackling deflation, on central bank policy and efforts to support exporters with a weaker yen, and this time he will be cautious about sounding too nationalistic. Abe told a news conference: "I once fell to rock bottom and was hit with a storm of criticism. Now, I want to prove it's possible to start over again." During 2006-2007 Abe followed a popular LDP leader, Junichiro Koizumi, and hope that he represented a new post war generation of leaders. One approach he might take is to stay close to the U.S. on policies. The early stumble in this respect hurt DPJ's prime minister Yuko Hatoyama after differences with the U.S. shortened his term in office....

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China made a prolific use of oil during its rapid economic growth phase. China is adapting to  3 million missing barrels of oil from Hormuz by drawing down reserves, cutting use of crude oil converted into plastics, and other measures. This is an opportunity for China to reduce the amount of oil it consumes by copying the example of more efficient use of oil per unit of GDP that is seen in the last decade in Germany and Japan. This would be better for China and for the world economy as it adapts to the uncertainty and wars of the last 3 decades of the Middle East. The US could also take the example of Germany and Japan in more efficient use of oil for the same degree of growth.

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The Bank of International Settlements warns that China's "credit to GDP gap" is 30.1. A figure of 10 normally is considered to be high and needs watching. The People's Daily carried an article presumably by president Xi Jinping warning about the consequences of the debt that had been growing "like a tree in the air." The debt to GDP ratio was at 255% at the end of 2015, and is up 107% since 2008 when the financial crisis led to a huge stimulus that has accelerated debt growth. The corporate debt is at 171% of GDP. The article in the People's Daily warned about reflexive stimulus every time growth slows and said that China cannot any longer "force economic growth by levering up." Cross border liabilities is one area of progress falling by a third to $698 billion, as companies cut debt quickly before the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates. In the future China is more likely to roll over debt as Japan had done following its debt surge and bad debt with zombie companies, which would in turn lead to lower growth. In the past the government was able to absorb the growing debt because it was not as high as it is today, and the economy was growing rapidly. This is no longer the situation, the reason for alarm at the situation facing China. A spike in interest rates of 250 basis points is cited as one situation which could affect China adversely. ...

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This report in the WSJ says several forecasts for GDP growth in the U.S. economy for the third quarter show seasonally adjusted annual growth of over 3 percent. This includes Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta with GDPNow model predicting 3%, Macroeconomic Advisors 3.1%, Oxford Economics predicting 3%.

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OECD forecasts show global GDP increasing by 4.2% in 2021 and 3.7% in 2022.

Countries with rapid testing facilities and large scale vaccination efforts are likely to recover faster. Smaller businesses are more likely to fail and go out of business. The will be damage to socio-economic fabric in many countries. OECD calls for investments in education, health, physical and digital infrastructure, and cooperation across borders for vaccine efforts and public health.