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About a quarter of Michigan counties are among the top 20% of counties in America for increase in unemployment and deaths per 1000 residents from the coronavirus. Only Massachusetts and New Jersey have fared worse. This WSJ analysis was based on federal government county level unemployment data. In May Michigan's 21.2% unemployment rate was the third highest in America after Nevada and Hawaii, two states where tourism drop hit hard. In a place like Muskegon the loss of about a million tourists and loss of jobs at Howmet Aerospace hit hard. Recovery of tourism could bring down the rate quickly, yet manufacturing will take longer.

Other states with many counties in the top 20% for deaths from virus and unemployment are Indiana, Ohio, New Hampshire, Alabama, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, New York.

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Nine LNG terminals many of them on the Gulf Coast are put on hold by the Biden administration in an effort to balance the needs of tackling climate change and the need for natural gas supplies to reduce the cost of winter heating. The supplies to European Union will not be affected, as these supplies vital to the EU after the halt of supplies from Russia will be handled on an exception basis. This also meets the growing concern of young people who see expanding fossil fuel investment as an issue at a time of dangers of climate change that were visible in 2023.

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Eighteen Senate Republicans under Mitch McConnell, the Minority leader in the US Senate, hold firm to support all Democrats for aid to Ukraine bill. This includes Senator Tillis of North Carolina who vigorously supported the aid bill on the floor of the Senate. Senator McConnell said "It is become fashionable in some circles to disregard the global interests of a global power, to bemoan the responsibilities of global leadership. It is idle work for idle minds, and it has no place in the US Senate." Mr. Trump and some Republican senators helped kill a immigration compromise legislation that Mr. Biden said would make it possible to close the border the day it was passed. This group also opposed the aid bill and lobbied to get the aid bill killed in the US Senate.

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Gold reaches $983 a troy ounce, nearing its all time high of $1003 of March 2008. Russia, China, Venezuela and other countries which have large dollar reserves are building up their gold holdings to reduce the risk of holding masssive dollar reserves which are going down in value. Investors are also buying up gold as a global liquidity cycle is taking hold, with the liquidity pumped in by the Federal Reserve to fight the credit freeze.

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A look at the Palestine conflict from 1947 to 2023. The British Mandate for Palestine gave Britain a role in administering this part of the Middle East after it took control of the region from the defeated Ottoman Empire in the First World War 1914-1918. The League of Nations set up the Mandate with intention to take the people in this territory to independence. The UN in 1947 gave about 56% of Palestine to the Jewish people and 44% to the Arab people. When the Arab people rejected this UN settlement and Arab neighbors Jordan, Egypt and Syria invaded in 1947 about 70% of the territory went to the new state of Israel. There have been repeated conflicts almost every 7 years since and there are factions within Israel and inside Palestine Arabs who have protracted the dispute, including over holy sites in Jerusalem, without seeking the kind of settlement that won peace for Ireland after hundreds of years of British rule and discrimination. The world with its billions of people in China and India who seek development and billions of people in Africa and Latin America who seek a way out of poverty, has no interest in prolonging small conflicts that distract from the importance of tackling climate change, infrastructure development and education, healthcare, ...

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Jimmy Carter holds the record for appointing federal judges in one term- 262 judges, 55 minorities, 42 women. In 1978 a Democratic Congress responded to a federal case backlog by creating positions for 150 more federal judges, all of which would be filled by Carter. Ruth Bader Ginsburg was one of these judges. Carter did not appoint a single Supreme Court Judge yet Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer another of these judges made it to the US Supreme Court.

By comparison for a single term Biden has appointed 235 federal judges. Reagan with 383 and Clinton with 378 hold the record for federal judges appointed  in two terms.

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Politic magazine covers the differing views inside president Trump's trade advisers and the conflicts inside the team. Mr. Navarro publicly rebukes Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's comments about the trade war being on hold.

Ptresident Trump's nationalist allies inside and outside the adminstration applaud his action on imposing tariffs showing that he is not soft on trade. Others in the Republican side see the presidents tactical moves and negotiating tactics of continually shifting position creating confusion, and when applied with allies like Canada and the European Union doing lasting damage to relations.

 

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There are 34 Senate races of which 23 are in states traditionally controlled by Democrats. Jacky Rosen is leading in Nevada, and Senator Ted Cruz will have trouble defending his record in the Senate. Senator Rick Scott a Republican from Florida will also have difficulty holding onto his seat. Republicans will gain the seat of Joe Manchin in West Virginia. Democrats could hold onto seats in Montana and Arizona. It all depends on messaging the facts about inflation, confronting immigration head on by saying the Republican Lankford legislation agreed with Biden will be signed into law by Harris, listing tough cost of living action limiting rent increases to 5%, and limiting price increases for groceries and other necessities. Infrastructure projects completed in red as well as blue states.

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"Brazil no Espelho" or "Brazil in the Mirror" by Felipe Nunes is cited by Brian Winter of Americas Quarterly in 2026 just before the October 2026 election. Lula has had a good run in the last 4 years with 3% growth of the economy, improvement in working class transfers and low unemployment. Lula's drawback is he is turning 80 years, and the Brazil of today is changing in its social aspects into one that is becoming more faith oriented. With evangelical Christianity on the rise and now about 30% of the people, including in the poorer areas of cities once supporting tax and transfers policies of Lula such as Bolsa Familia. Asked about their faith Brazilians are exception in the world for numbers Nunes shows can be found nowhere else- over 95% saying they are believers that their faith is the most important aspect of their life. Brazilians are also putting family first. There is a certain fatigue with the state supporting the economic lives of people, particularly with a recent Master Banco revelations of wrongdoing in business circles, reminder of the Car Wash Scandal after Lula left office. Brazilians say working for oneself is more important than working for the government. Brazil's economy is also transformed in many ways in its size and potential since the start of the Lula government in 2003. Brazil is now the 9th largest economy in the world, growing similar to India as the 3rd largest. The notions of left and right wing politics are now in both countries being replaced with a belief in a higher Being that guides us all. The ideas of Faith, Family and Work independent of the State is the direction in the European Union and other nations in the world.  Brazil as part of the Western hemisphere, and the US asserting the Monroe Doctrine after its experience with drugs and fentanyl, mass migration across its borders, it is now a different hemisphere than before. The US has shifted to securing the western hemisphere from the swings that happened in Cuba and Venezuela over decades that have led to economic disaster, and to millions of displaced Venezuelans crossing borders. In this situation much has changed across Latin America and North America.  In any situation the US is likely to find a favorable investment climate in Brazil, closer relations with Brazil, in its own hemisphere, as it has with India in Asia. A Brazil that would work to give balance to the US process of economic cooperation with Latin America that was the intent of John F. Kennedy in the Alliance for Progress. A vision never realized, put on hold for over 50 years, yet now ready to be realized. ...

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Raghuram Rajan interviewed by BW's Peter Coy. Rajan was prescient in questioning the Greenspan Fed's policies and the risks posed by the excessive leveraging in the financial system at the 2005 Jackson Hole conference. After the excessive monetary easing by the Bernanke Federal Reserve, Rajan questions the wisdom of keeping interest rates too low for too long. He joins John Taylor, George W. Bush presidential advisor, and Allan Meltzer of Carnegie-Mellon in making this point. Rajan was the chief economist at the IMF from 2003 to 2006. He is the author of a 2010 book, Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures still Threaten the World Economy. The fault lines he describes are rising inequality in the US and the dependence of the US on loans from China.

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David French in the NYT describes a moral center that is avoiding extremes on college campuses. French quotes from W.B. Yeats poem The Second Coming that was written in the period after the First World War during the Russian Civil War, when things appeared to be in disarray. "Things fall apart; the center cannot hold... The best lack all conviction/ while the worst are full of passionate intensity." The United States is built on a series of ideas from the Declaration of Independence, ideas that were revisited and relived at important times such as the Civil War with Lincoln and the Great Depression with FDR. It is that moral center that French speaks of when he cites Yeats and talks about it being challenged from extreme views on the right and the left in politics and in society.

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Israel's government dissolved parliament and called for elections to be held in April 2019. Prime minister Netanyahu's governing coalition failed to reach agreement on a controversial law to draft ultraorthodox men into the military, resulting in the move to hold fresh elections.

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Signs of an opening for improved relations between North and South Korea as the two countries agree to hold military talks. North Korea will send athletes to the Winter Olympics in South Korea. North Korea did not offer to put the nuclearization issue as a subject for the talks. Critics see the effort by North Korea as an effort to reduce the effect of sanctions as it moves ahead with its nuclear program.

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Steep rate increases hit retirees holding long term care policies. About 7.3 million retirees hold such policies.This means that either retirees pay these steep price increases or simply are forced to turn away from the policies. A safety net has now turned into something else. Sales of such policies have dropped from 750,000 in 2002 to 100,000 in 2016, and even fewer in 2017, according to the American Association for Long term Care Insurance.

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You didn't have to be poor to be frugal. American frugality was a way of life on the prairies and farms of America for most of the eighteenth, nineteenth and first half of the twentieth century. It was only after 1950's that piles of consumer products were discarded to pile up in rubbish mountains somewhere in the Atacama desert in Chile by 2020. The over use of plastic contaminated the land and the oceans. The consumer debt led to money sent overseas that could be invested in America so that workers could have good jobs and American manufacturing could hold its place in the world as second to none.

As old habits are revived some areas in America from upstate New York to upstate Michigan still cling to the old values as shown in this report by Claire Ansberry in the WSJ. 

 

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After the Biden executive order closing the Mexico Border following 2500 illegal border crossings a day there remains the challenge of increased funding for DHS Border Control for Asylum processing officers and immigration judges, so that the intent of the executive order can be implemented effectively. Making the claim of asylum requires being in the country, a process that provides an incentive to cross the border from Mexico. Bipartisan legislation is required as the duty of Congress to address these immigration problems so that the Border issue does not become one on which all other problems facing the US can be put on hold and not tackled making the US fall behind in development, infrastructure, climate change action, education, supply chain, and health care, resulting in reducing the standard of living in the US.

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Tom Keene of Blomberg BusinessWeek talks to a panel of experts about the future prospects for the US and the global economy. The discussion was spurred by Carmen Reinhart's paper at the central banker's Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference. This paper forecasts high unemployment, low housing prices and very low growth in the US upto 2017. Shiller, Calomiris, Orszag, Kaufman and Bill Gross are part of this panel. Shiller's to do list main item is to get help to local and state governments by restoring general revenue sharing arrangements. Gross would focus on jobs that can hold up in a competitive economy, and put back some of the production that is taking place in the developing countries back into the developed countries, as part of a rebalancing; through a currency realignment. Kaufman would like to see a capital expenditure program by the US government, including infrastructure and education. Calomiris would like to see a setup of a new Republican Congresss to set the stage for post 2012 efforts. Calomiris favors cutting entitlements, cutting payroll taxes, but is not clear how this would help lower the deficit. Orszag points to feedback from business leaders suggesting a lowering of payroll taxes will not spur hiring, as the real reason for not hiring was low 1-2 % expected growth. Shiller, Kaufman and Gross see government efforts as realistically needed in the current situation....

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The surge in the value of the dollar is creating turmoil in the world economy. The dollar reached 1.04 to the euro and 118 Japanese yen by Dec. 15, 2016. This means Japanese and European exports will be more competitive and lower U.S corporate earnings.  Emerging market economies hold about $200 billion in dollar denominated debt and this will become harder to repay with the surge in the value of the dollar. China faces larger capital outflows and the Bank of Japan has to navigate a new situation. Some countries such as Mexico are raising interest rates to reduce inflation as the value of the peso drops. The prospect of trade wars is also another aspect of uncertainty with the new Trump administration in the U.S.

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Angela Merkel finally reaches an agreement for a coalition government of the CDU, CSU and the SPD parties. Under the agreement the CDU cedes the Finance Ministry to the Social Democrats SPD party, and the Interior Ministry to the CSU which favors a stricter immigration policy. The agreement still needs the consent of the SPD party members in a vote. In addition to the Finance Ministry the Social Democrats will hold the Foreign Affairs Ministry. It means Merkel will have a fourth term as Chancellor, this time in a period roiled by immigration issues and the volatility of the Trump administration in the U.S., ensuring that Germany acts as a stabilizing force in world affairs.

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Dyeing a pair of jeans requires 100 litres of water for the dyeing process and 15% of artificial synthetic dyes make their way into waterways as pollution. In this report The Hindu shows how centuries old indigo plants are being revived, many of them native to India. These plants contain 0.5% of Indican which exposed to oxygen produces the blue substance Indigotin. It is one of the few naturally based dyes for cotton fabrics. Other plants native to Idia also produce dyes that are less harmful to the environment. These dyes replace synthetic dyes made from petrochemical derivatives.

The work of Padma Shri Vankar, formerly of IIT Kanpur and her colleagues has helped identify and create dye extraction and dyeing methods for several plant species. This includes Nepal barberry of Arunachal, wild canna , Flame of the Forest from which colors for Holi festival are derived.

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Achievements of Elvira Nabiullina as central bank chief in Russia since 2013 are the reducing of US dollar reserves from 40% to 11%of $600 billion in Russian reserves shifting to hold most of its reserves in euros, gold or renminbi Chinese currency. She also implemented the alternative to SWIFT the global bank messaging system, and changed the payments infrastructure to process credit card transactions in the country so departure of Visa and Mastercard had minimal effect.

In this way this highly respected banker has protected Russia's economy from western sanctions, says NYT. She is trusted by president Putin and was adviser to Putin in 2012, minister of economic development before that when Putin was prime minister. When Russia suffered an economic crisis in 2014 as oil prices fell sharply and Saudis increased oil production, the ruble fell. Nabiullina increased rates to 17%, and the economy shrank till it stabilized with inflation down to 4% by 2017.

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After the failure of 3 prime ministers selected by president Macron to form a functioning government and pass the Budget in 2025, it looks increasingly apparent that Macron has failed as president in 2025. He has hung on to power through one protest after another, yet has failed to bring together people with a plan to improve the living standards of the French people from all sectors and parts of society, including the lower income groups and rural parts of the country. France has become more fractured politically than ever under Macron, with the result that no one or two parties can form a viable government with enough support in parliament. Macron started out as Minister for the Economy under Socialist president Hollande, but never really supported the Socialist party, preferring to branch out on his own seizing a political opportunity to call all other parties part of the old system with a hastily put together Movement of his own. It has managed to win and hold power for nearly a decade for lack of better alternatives, yet today it is clear that this Movement did not have the power that comes from a genuine effort for the improvement of the lives of the people of France from all parts of society and all income groups, and both urban and rural parts of France. It is a missed opportunity for France and a failure of a president who failed to grasp the needs of France and of the French people. It has pitted different sectors and ideas, rural and urban, parts from neglected industrial development and thriving regions, against each other instead of pulling together the country into a coherent whole for improving the lives of the people. Tactical moves replaced a larger sense of strategy and purpose, and personal power replacing the interest of the nation as a whole for all parts of the country. ...

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British prime minister Boris Johnson announces tough new measures that make it illegal to socialize in gatherings of more than six. This is an effort to fight a second wave of coronavirus in Britain. The government now believes that normal life will not return till spring and that "moonshot" mass testing will be needed to contain the virus. The new "rule of six" goes into effect in Britain on September 14, and anyone "breaking the rule risks being dispersed, fined and possibly arrested." Covid marshals will patrol city centres to split up large groups.

Schools workplaces and restaurants will be able to hold more than six people in total but they will have to be groups kept separate. The prime minister said it was needed to stop Britain from the exponential growth happening in France. He said "a stitch in time saves nine."

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There is serious lack of depth in leadership in the Tory party today. Names proposed in The Guardian for Tory leaders after the July 4 election should Rishi Sunak have to resign are clearly short of what Britain needs in leadership. It depends on which Tory MP can hold on to his seat. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kim Badennoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, all lack what is needed to lead the Conservatives on July 5, 2024. This has been true all through the last two decades.  David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss who preceded Sunak for most of the last decade were also lacking in leadership. The decade wasted with Nigel Farage and David Cameron, Boris Johnson trying to get Britain out of the European Union has hurt Britain. Today most Britons want to go back to a Britain that is growing as part of the EU and Europe. 

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Wha is life like for a grocer, a food store owner in a rural county in America. Frank Timberlake in this story is a former law enforcement officer running a store in Northhampton County, North Carolina. He looks after his employees, and his customers in this rural county.  Rich Square Market is the only grocery store in this town. He is all on his own as he deals with supplies of expensive Charmin toilet paper, or shortage of paper towels, and the rising price of eggs.

His worries- if one worker get sick the rest are quarantined. He has kept the store open through hurricanes, floods, yet this is tough. He jumps when he sneezes, sleeps in a separate room at home, and can't hold his wife's hand.