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Even though U.S. president Trump has singled out countries such as Mexico, South Korea and China for trade practices, the U.S. today faces stronger competition in trade from Germany. The trade surplus with Germany for 2016 was $297 billion for Germany compared to $245 billion for China, according to Ifo economic institute. China's trade surplus according to the World Bank was down from 10% of gross domestic product or GDP in 2007 to 3% in 2016, while Germany's has gone up to 8.5%. The Chinese currency is seen as not being undervalued by some experts, while the euro has lost a quarter of its value in the last 3 years, giving Geman exporters an edge. The U.S. also competes with Germany in nine of the 10 export categories such as machinery and electronic equipment, according to the Peterson Institute. Then why is the focus under U.S. president Trump not including Germany? One reason is that China's products have put a downward pressure on U.S. manufacturing wages, and the the speed with the Chinese manufacturing has grown in certain industries. Germany has very few of the manufacturing subsidies that China provides to its industries. And the depreciation in the euro is not favored by the German government as it opposes the policies of the European Central Bank. Germany also has a higher propensity to save about 10% of GDP compared to about 3% for the U.S., according to OECD. As a result Germany is accumulating foreign assets at a faster rate than any other nation, while the U.S. is borrowing capital from overseas. Ways to change this are minimum wage regulations introduced by the government, but larger measures such as increasing government investment in the economy are not supported as the country prepares for the future with an aging population.   ...

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The British Council in Colombo, Ceylon, as far back as the 1960's, has shaped the founder of Lyrarc.com's knowledge of Britain in shaping the ideas of the Modern World we know today, knowledge of its parliament and democracy, that are vital in shaping society in China, India, and other nations in Asia, Latin America and Africa to this day. For this reason the closing of the British Council facilities around the world to pay a loan it had taken years ago under the Conservatives during Covid, is to be seen as a major blow. This report in The Guardian is about fears the world's leading soft power agency, which is more than that a transmitter of ideas that shape the Modern World and all our democracies in Europe and America, Asia, other parts of the world, will disappear in a decade. The Madrid building which houses the British Council in Madrid at 13 Paseo del Martinez Campos in Madrid's Chamberi district, has been put up for sale to pay Covid era debt. About 5000 Spanish students attend classes in English and prepare for exams in 35 classrooms. Over the years hundreds of thousands of Spanish people passed through this building. 320 jobs will be lost, employees with passionate dedication who it will be difficult to replace. Another center in Barcelona also is expected to close. This comes at the wrong time when Britain needs to make its voice heard in the world, when a mediocre level of British parliamentarians and leaders since Blair and David Cameron have allowed this to happen. English language classes in Italy at the British Council are also being shut down. Paris building may also be sold, and shrinking operations in the Baltic Republics, Croatia and Austria. This will be a major blow to helping spread knowledge of British parliamentary traditions, its history and participation in shaping the Modern World we know today.  It is now hoped and this is a message to Labour's Andy Burnham who studied English at Cambridge, to restore Britain's image and the value of its parliamentary and other lasting contributions to the Modern World, to the benefit of all nations, to cancel this debt and give the British Council new leadership for the next 2 decades. Neil Kinnock, a Labour leader, and a chair of the British Council says- “The British Council does not want to make these cuts. They are being forced into it by the conditions required by the Treasury." “I sympathise very much with the staff, so does the leadership,” he said. The British Council had “camped out” in the Foreign Office for last three or four years and put up a “hell of a fight”. Kinnock said: “What the government should do is either find a way of cancelling the debt, or even rescheduling the debt. Because it’s to absolutely nobody’s advantage to lose the British Council.” A desperate effort to pay an outstanding £197m debt from a Covid-era Conservative government emergency loan on commercial terms, with interest to be repaid by September, is what is causing this massive destruction of a century old institution that belongs to Europeans, to Asians, and to the world at large for better societies through knowledge. Who runs Treasury in Britain? Rachel Reeves, who has no concept of the role constructive Britons have played for two hundred years from the time the British agent at Rajkot encouraged Mohandas Gandhi (Gandhiji) to study in London in 1888, a role that the British Council has played since its founding. His name Sir Frederick Souter, who wrote the letter of recommendation for Gandhi to enter the University College, London. Sir Dingle Foot, Solicitor General of the UK, another Labour leader, played that role for a youngster of 22 years at the University of Baroda in India, for Law School at the University of London in 1969, after years of educational experience at the British Council in Colombo, Ceylon. Now the founder of Lyrarc.com. We call upon Andy Burnham to make this one of is first priorities to put Britain First, and India, other European nations, the US, to assist in this effort, to preserve one of Britain's brightest contributions in throwing light on the brave scientific, educational and industrial endeavors that built the Modern World. ...

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Hou You-Yi of the KMT and Tai Ching-Te of the DPP are candidates for the Taiwan elections in 2024. The Guardian looks at their differing positions in relation to China and the US.

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New information from the recordings of the World Health Organization as reported by Associated Press, show that during the week of January 6 WHO's lead experts were having difficulty getting information about the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. Maria Van Kerkhove, an epidemiologist and the WHO technical lead for coronavirus says she was going on very minimal information. The WHO's top official in China, Gauden Galea, says in one of the recordings that they were in the situation where information was given to WHo officials in China only 15 minutes prior to it going on China's state television CCTV. In early January Michael Ryan, the WHO's chief of emergencies, says he feared a repeat of the SARS epidemic in 2002, which was initially covered up by Chinese officials, according to the AP report shown in the Guardian. Ryan says he found himself in the same situation as in 2002 SARS, endlessly trying to get updates from China about what was going on, and adds that WHO barely got out of the SARS with its reputation intact given the transparency issues, in the AP report shown in the Guardian. By June 1 about 6.3 million confirmed cases are reported of coronavirus in the world and 375,000 deaths, and huge losses to economies and people. China's authorites did not lockdown Wuhan till January 23, by which time this report in the Guardian says at least 5 million residents had left. China denied entry requested by the U.S.on January 6 for a team of experts into Wuhan, The team was not allowed into Wuhan for a crucial period of 6 weeks during which the virus had time to spread in the western world. This is taken up in Mr. Trump's letter to the WHO, and the work of Gro Harlem Brundtland is clearly stated in the conclusion of that letter. Brundtland was head of the WHO at the time of the SARS epidemic in 2003, and acted decisively with early warnings to prevent its spread.  Because of the extremely contagious nature of the coronavirus the failure of early warning systems resulted in enormous damage to lives and economic losses worldwide.  ...

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A senior Indian diplomat, and former ambassador to China, Gautam Bambawale, says China's action in the June 15 clash at Galwan Valley was the worst violence since 1967. He sees it as a premeditated and well thought out action. His view is that India's relations with China will deteriorate further. That this was an action by the PLA to take territory to what it sees as the LAC or border. For small tactical gains he says "China has strategically lost India." This will impact trade and other relations going forward in his view.  Nothing of this sort was expected says Bambawale. All the agreements put in place since 1993, everything for tranquillity at the border, all the mechanisms, have now collapsed. Bambawale has provided a very lucid and clear account of the relations and the border issues. He goes on to say that Chinese observers have given reasons for the Galwan clash with PLA- that India should stay away from the US and other democracies such as the European Union. Some reflection shows that the opposite has happened. And further reflection would show that the same situation was repeated in the period of transfer from British Empire to Republican India, and from Nationalist China to Communist China from the period 1947 onwards. Different perceptions and different leaderships that gave the perception of gaps between the two countries. In the 1950's after the Korean War Chinese perceptions about India could have led to the incursions that brought China to the borders of India in 1950, similar perceptions of gaps in development and capabilities could have led to the conflict in 1962. From 1993 peace prevailed with India after China entered the World Trade Organization under president Clinton in 2001 following a 10 year effort. Because the focus in China was on development after a series of crises, internal sense of a widening technological gap with the US and Europe, disagreements with the Soviet Union, and the experiments with market economy, internal struggles for democracy. With that period coming to a close as the new trading relationship has led to working class losses in factory jobs in the US, China is faced with protecting its economy as it and the US look at changing supply channels and how it affects both countries. It is a critical time for China as it faces governments in US, France, UK and Canada determined to protect their own interests in manufacturing jobs, renewing supply channels, and in technological advancement. The response is similar to that in 1962 when seen from the Communist party perspective as a gap has opened up with India following China's progress in the 30 year trading relationship with the US and Europe. That gap and the difficult situation China faces today with the US and EU in trade and technology has brought forward the Galwan clash and future clashes in Ladakh and at the border.  As Mr. Jaishnkar, India's Minister of External Affairs as well as former ambassador to China,  has pointed out this is a very different aspirational India that China faces. The same kind of grassroots development that happened in China and rapid pooling of capital, human resources and technology inputs for development is taking place in India, and will continue for the next two decades, quickly bridging any gaps in modernization between the two countries. The difference between a youthful population in India and aging population in China and Japan, is likely to add another dimension. China's Buddhist culture that came from India is not likely to go away, more likely is that China will see a revival of Buddhist ideas of wellness and living more as culture than religion. The experience with British colonialism that prevailed both in India and China, and which from its base in India caused so much grief to China during the Opium wars will recede from memory. Extending borders from historical memory of Japanese incursions into border areas in Manchuria could have led leaders after 1950 in China to extend borders to remote areas in the Arunachal region of India and communist theory books may have created the perception of defensive moves. In the context of an aspirational India similar to China, and no real intention on the part of India to extend itself in any way to China's provinces in Sichuan, this extending of borders as a defensive move will be seen as stemming from memories of Japanese incursions in the 1930's, but simply costly and not relevant in any way to China's own aspirational development and progress. ...

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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China's growth will slow to about 3% in 2022 as the decisions made at the Central Economic Work Conference that ended on December 10 were to emphasize economic stability as the overriding goal. The goal of discouraging speculation in housing with the slogan housing is for living will remain in place in 2022. The goal of controlling surging debt that poses a serious risk to the economic future of China will also remain in place. The external environment remains uncertain and getting complicated with a change in the US and German governments in 2021 and shifts in policies.

A party congress will take place in 2022 in addition to the Beijing Winter Olympics. 

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French president Macron fails to get president Xi of China to commit to changes in its policies towards Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Macron's visit as seen by the NYT only undermines the US policy and European Union policy that opposes the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. EU's Leyen also visits China at this time.  The relations between the US and European business with China expanded for two decades between 2000-2020. All three regions are heavily invested in each other. Decoupling is a gradual process and China sees the EU as an access point for technology and investment. The US has not decoupled from China even after moves in semiconductors and electric vehicles were made by president Biden. Apple and other American companies are heavily invested in China. The US and the EU are committed to building new supply chains. Their policies are intended to do this in a way that reduces the effect on their economies. The European Union depended on the US for its response to the Russian invasion and to protect freedom in Europe through NATO. By 2024 the European Union policies will be integrated with policy of the US. China is also trying to reduce the effect on its economy by decoupling in a way that maintains growth. ...

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China imports most of Iran's oil exports about 1.8 million barrels a day which flow through the Straits of Hormuz. Iran is heavily dependent on these exports for oil revenues that support it's economy. All Asian economies are heavily dependent on the oil flowing from Saudis, UAE and Iran through the Straits.  For Iran it would mean the loss of oil revenues needed to support its economy if the Straits are shut down. Iran's central bank says it get $67 billion from oil exports 90% of it going to China alone.  82% of oil imports of Asian countries  from Saudi, UAE, Qatar and Iran sources go though the Straits.  The US is not dependent on the Straits- less than 10% of its oil. Also true of Germany. The US  would have to use air strikes to prevent any mining of the waters seaway, and China, US, Japan, India would join in combined effort to keep all sea navigation open for international shipping.  ...

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US and Chinese trade negotators vice premier Lifeng for China and Scott Bessent, Treasury Secretary, Jamieson Greer USTR, meet in Switzerland, for talks on tariffs of 145% and 125% on each others goods. An agreement for a 90 day pause is reached. During that pause period tariffs will be 30% by the US, and 10% by China on imported goods. The 30% tariff of the US includes the original 10% tairff on all nations and the 20% tariff for China not doing enough to stop flow of fentanyl  into the US. China says it now recognizes the seriousness of the damage to communities in the US from fentanyl.

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President Biden introduces a new format for the US China discussions on international coordination for economic policies of the two nations. It puts the dialogue between the two presidents and the ministries under them with clear goals for the US and for the Chinese side their own goals. It replaces the US China Strategic Economic Dialogue setup by Treasury Secretary Paulsen (Goldman Sachs) under the younger Bush which Mr. Trump rejected and which was seen as a failure for both sides creating the very hypergrowth in China pushed by business interests on both sides that hurt both nations. 

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Efforts by China's climate envoy at Glasgow COP26 and US envoy John Kerry to build cooperation between China and the US on climate change. This happens at the end of COP26 talks and after president Jinping missed the Glasgow summit. Xie says China will work towards "concrete plans" for "finalization of the Paris Agreement rulebook." The US China agreement is not specific on details but includes arranging regular talks, and also a focus on curbing methane gas emissions which can produce immediate results in reducing global warming. The US and over 100 countries signed an agreement on methane gas emissions control. 

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For years Apple concentrated all its iPhone production in a few factories in China. The Zhenzhou factory with 300,000 employees is one of the largest of the Apple suppliers. These suppliers including Foxconn and Luxshare work witn Apples NPI process in which manufacturing is designed around Apple designs and prototypes. For the first time WSJ reports on protests at the Zhengzhou factory over Covid controls and wages, conditions. Young people in China are no longer keen on working in these conditions and protested. Apple finally recognizes the need to reduce concentration in one country and plans to bring 40 to 45% of the production of iPhones to India. Initially it plans to bring NPI trained suppliers such as Luxshare that have facilities in Vietnam to assemble outside China. Over time suppliers in India will have to develop the needed skills, planning and engineering concentration of people to Make in India what is now Made in China.

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The U.S. orders the closure of the Chinese consulate in Houston, Texas. The State Department in a statement said China was conducting "massive illegal spying and influence operations throughout the U.S. against U.S. government officials and American citizens," saying such activities have increased. Footage on local television stations purportedly showed people burning documents on consulate premises, and firefighters were called, says this report in the WSJ. In Copenhagen, Secretary of State Pompeo citing two hacking indictments and U.S. jobs stolen by China's policies, said  "President Trump has said, 'Enough, we're not going to allow this to continue to happen." The two hacking indictments relate to two hackers in China working for China's civilian intelligence agency, targeting American firms involved in coronavirus research and stealing hundreds of millions of dollars of sensitive information from companies around the world, says this report in the WSJ. ...

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The new data security law that went into effect Sept 1, 2021, limits the amount of sensitive information China will share with foreign companies, and investors. All data related activities are subject to government oversight says this report in WSJ, including collection, storage, use and transmission. Companies in China now are reluctant to share information.  Because the law is ambiguous about what is sensitive information this makes companies more reluctant. The result is a China that is more opaque than before. It is driven by antagonism in the US over the effect on American workers of manufacturing and supply chains shifted to China. The response of the Chinese government is to turn the country inward, looking to self sufficiency, data security, and an environment that looks at foreigners with suspicion, says this report in WSJ. The pandemic has increased this view of foreigners in China, after China's experience with a deteriorating trade relationship with the US. Xi Jinping has not left the country since the pandemic started in January 2020. China has also seen an alarming drop in passengers going overseas or coming into China from 50 million in the first 8 months of 2019, to 1 million in the first 8 months of 2021, a drop of 49 million passengers, according to data from the Civil Aviation Administration. Government directives are to minimize foreign travel as a result of the pandemic. People in the US see the operations in China of companies such as Apple and now Tesla as a sign of how well the system of international cooperation is functioning without realizing that these companies never had the understanding of the history and culture of the country after two centuries of struggle against colonialism. When the situation takes a different turn as it has after Mr. Trump raised the issue of American workers and loss of manufacturing, and after the pandemic created unexpected distrust, there is very little these companies have to offer to keep the relationship between two of the world's population blocs, between North America and the closely related population of South America, with the people of China, a billion people on each side. This shows that the relationship cannot be left only to the business and private sector driven by profit and business interests, that all sections of the population in China and in the US need to be involved for a stable relationship with ongoing human and cultural contacts at all levels. ...

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The covid test requirement applies for entry to the US from China and South Korea. It also includes airports in Canada at Vancouver and Toronto. Japan and India have their own covid test requirements for travelers from China following the surge in cases in China in December 2022 after all covid restrictions are removed.

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45 cities in China which represent 40% of China's economic output are now in full or partial lockdowns in the second week of April 2022, according to one tally, says the WSJ.

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About 1 million jobs in Germany depend on China. Scholz is derisking but not decoupling Germany's relations with China because of the close linking of the two economies under Merkel. About half of German business depend on China for some part of their supply chain or for parts. Yet it is clear that the relationship has changed after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, the lessons learned from the shutdown of oil and gas supplies from Russia, the search for alternative supplies to get through the winter. Germany like the US is rebuilding its supply chain to correct the over concentration in China. The annual dialogue between the leaders of the two countries is also no longer the same as premier Li Qiang of China meets chancellor Scholz.

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Both the EU and US see another wake up call from China's position of on again off again diplomacy using rare earth as a bargaining chip. US and China separately and in coordination work to develop policy and actions to secure access to rare earth and technologies that is independent of China. China sees it's action on rare earth diplomacy as robust diplomacy in response to DJT tariffs, yet this is getting the US to move quickly to develop its own rare earth access including working with Australia, and taking action to support US industry. The European Union is not far behind in doing the same. This and the action taken by the US to restructure world trade for a level playing field, and getting Asian partners to acknowledge their abuse of the international trading system for two decades and accept some level of temporary tariffs is changing world trade. The US can regain the position it has held for the better part of the period 1900-2000, overcoming periods that included the rise of Russia and Japan after 1945. ...

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In a two and half hour news conference prime minister Li Keqiang of China gives some insights into the new thinking of China's leadership on issues of trade with the U.S.,charges made against Huawei, and handling China's slowing economy. On Huawei or Chinese tech companies conducting spying for the Chinese government Li Keqiang stated: This is not consistent with Chinese law. This is not how China behaves, We do not do that and will not do that in the future." To tackle the slowing economy Li said the government is reducing taxes and cutting interest rates and the money banks are required to hold as reserves. By reducing expenditures the government will save 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion, collecting higher dividends from state firms, and retrieving unspent state funds allocated earlier. The purpose Li repeatedly emphasized is to free up credit to help private companies and prevent "layoff waves." On the trade issues with the U.S. Li believes it is not possible to uncouple the two countries economies, and said he expected the trade talks to lead to a positive outcome. China's national legislature he said passed a new foreign investment law as proof of its commitment to creating a fair environment for foreign companies, including complaint responding mechanisms, transparency in information disclosure and fast followup in issuing regulations that put the law in effect. ...

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China's Liu He's meetings with Janet Yellen in Jan 2023 at Davos and other locations are helping to stabilize economic ties between China and the US. Liu He is economic adviser to president Xi of China.

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China's proposed ban on export of solar manufacturing technology is likely to slow US progress in solar energy installation.

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US students in China in educational exchange were 11,000 before the pandemic. Today this has dropped to 1000 which is not good for the cultural and educational interaction that promotes understanding between the two large countries.

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US exports of liquefied natural gas to China surged in 2021 to 17% of al exports. LNG in China's energy mix surged to 8% in 2020 and is even higher in 2021. Facing pressure to peak carbon emissions by 2030, and facing energy shortage in 2021, China is importing more LNG than ever. Prices of LNG have gone up 10 times in 2021 compared to year earlier. China is now the world's largest importer of LNG.

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India and Vietnam are key countries for reinvention of the supply chain to cover home production in the US with supplies from friendly nations. After the G20 meetings in New Delhi president Biden will go to Hanoi, Vietnam. Vietnam also maintains trade relationship with China as it depends on China for its manufacturing exports. China and Vietnam are both socialist nations, yet after a border war in 1979 Vietnam is building a stronger relationship with the US. It also has a trade relationship with Japan and Vietnamese workers help meet worker shortages in Japan.