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With the change in U.S. position on climate change, carbon emissions, and the move to raise tariffs on China's exports to the U.S. China faces a new dimension in its global relationships. Against this background China is shifting to a long term view of its relationship with India. China's new foreign policy leaders after the recent party Congress, vice president Wang Qishan and Foreign Minister Wang Yi, now see the need for new partners in a multipolar global world for the long term as China and India countries with large populations and a need for stable world trade share common interests. Wang steers the Central Foreign Affairs Commission with Yang Jiechi as director. China now sees " a lot of shared interests, concerns and positions," in the words of China's Representative Lu, in the long term issues of globalisation, urbanization, pollution, and concern for achieving stable development with high growth rates.  China now takes the long view looking back at the unprecedented change of the last 100 years, as it maps out its plans for the future. The U.S. has challenged the ideas in the blueprint for development of "Made in China 2025," particularly as it relates to western transfer of technology to China. This has created a new situation for which China is still looking for answers, and ways to come up with new strategies for development without the nearly unrestricted access to western technology of the last 2 decades.  Shared positions on world trade with India and India's close relations with the U.S. add credibility in China's  negotiating positions with the U.S.                  ...

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In a sign of the severity of climate change impact in China 86 cities in southern and eastern China are shown to have heat alerts as of July 12. Temperatures over 40 degrees were only recorded for 15 days since 1873 in Shanghai says this report in The Guardian. Shanghai expects hot weather of 40 degrees. Cities Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing are experiencing extreme weather.

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This editorial says the climate change accords the U.S. reached with China in 2014 amount to little in the way of what China is required to do. China will be allowed to let its carbon emissions increase till 2030, two decades from now, and have the emissions decline afterward. This says the WSJ is what is expected to happen in China anyway because of demographic and urbanization trends. China will also have 20% of its energy come from non-coal polluting sources by 2030, something China plans to do anyway because of the high costs of pollution from coal plants. The U.S. commits to reducing its carbon emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2025, in place of the 17% currently set in 2009. This would increase costs of energy in the U.S., says WSJ, without any serious effort to cut emissions further in the developing countries.

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German president Scholz visits Japan with 6 members of his cabinet. He will hold the inaugural session of intergovernmental consultations the two countries plan to hold every year. Japan is keen to understand the German position on relations with China. Prof. Shigemura of Waseda University says prime minister Kishida want to get a first hand understanding of Germany's policy towards China and on the Ukraine situation. Shigemura says Japan is deeply worried that Germany and other countries still want to cooperate with China, despite the problems seen in the Indo-Pacific region. Germany is seen as not having taken the steps to change its economic relations with China after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has not drawn criticism from China.

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Xi has chosen upward mobility for the Chinese people in all parts of the country including rural areas, reducing disparities in income, tackling climate change over the very hyper growth that has caused climate change and wreaks havoc in floods and fires across the planet. By the Chinese dream is meant that China would have a fair chance to match the western world with its own culture, language, creativity of its people, and he has chosen to do this in away that respects China's history and struggles with imperialist Britain, and the imperial powers in the modern period since 1500. It only poses a threat to the US if the US does not also invest in its own people, follows misguided military adventures overseas, and does not invest in its own manufacturing and technological potential at home. Historically the imperial powers were Britain, France, Germany, Russia. The US under Woodrow Wilson and under FDR pursued policies that were at odds with the imperial powers and favored a China that could build the potential of its own people far beyond what the imperial powers intended- for India, Turkey, China, Vietnam, and the rest of Asia. At each step of the way to 1948 the US policy remained true to this. Even the Cold War was a struggle against an imperial power- Russia which under the Bolsheviks and even today follows imperial minded policies for Eastern Europe. The Biden administration and the Xi administration in China are really not that far apart in pursuing policies that support people from all parts of their countries, and are resolute in the fight against climate change making growth conform with respecting the earth. ...

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Chris Buckley of the NYT looks at selected speeches of president Xi of China to military officers during the first 5 years 2012 to 2017 but fails to look at the China Xi Jinping faced in these years. It was a period of change in China when it was not clear which direction China would take after the messy experiment with free markets under a socialist state controlled system led by the CCP. That period from 1990 onwards led to hypergrowth in China that modernized China yet shifted American and European manufacturing to China alienating working class communities in the western countries. It hurt China also through widespread contamination of air and water, and widespread corruption and decline of the CCP. The Bo Xilai demagogic effort to subvert the system from inside happened by 2012 endangering the system itself from the inside while it responded to the pressures created by the experiment with free market from corruption, regional inequality, and other problems. ...

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India's Foreign Minister told a conference that China's forward deployments at Galwan in violation of 1993 and 1996 agreements was an attempt to change the Line of Actual Control. China after years of peaceful development under previous administrations, during which China had gained from the trade relationship with the US and foreign investment from the US business community, sought  to put India at a disadvantage using its larger economy and technological assets obtained through American business assistance. This was done by making forward deployments right at the Indian border to change the Line of Actual Control in progressive steps. Jaishankar made it very clear. "It is hard work, very patient work, but we are very clear on one point, which is we will not allow any unilateral attempt by China to change the status quo or alter the LAC. I do not care how long it takes, how many rounds we do, how hard we have to negotiate- this is something we are very clear of." Going back to the period of independence with Nehru in 1947- China's occupation of Tibet was an occupation of a peaceful country that led to the situation that India faces today of a border stretching from east to west on the Himalayas that faces China. Faced with the partition and refugees from that partition India under Nehru was not in a position to respond effectively to that occupation. Does China gain anything from being at that border through the occupation of Tibet is a serious question? Why? Because it faces a Vedanta and Buddha driven culture and people with population of 1.8 billion stretching to the Indonesian islands that were and still are the fundamental source of  China's own Buddhist culture and tradition.  US business has allied with one country after another Japan, China and now India. The US has faced wars with Japan, and sometimes in a failed attempt to understand the aspirations of  Southern Asia allied with British ideas of the region which were based on the policies of British Empire to divide the region on religious and language, caste based barriers. US business also lacked a true perception of the importance of working class and families in the US as it sent factories and surrendered its own manufacturing to China. The world is now changing following the pandemic and new supply chains and manufacturing policies of the US are being structured. It is in this context where India's pace of economic growth and technological advancement will change its capabilities and its capacity to meet the aspirations of 1.8 billion people in Asia with a common tradition and culture. It is in this context that one can ask the question does China have anything to gain from the occupation of Tibet and being on the border with a country and cultural tradition of 1.8 billion people stretching across South and South east Asia?  ...

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As deflation takes hold in China, the lessons of US relations with China that were handled by business to maximize profits that caused climate change and destroyed the environment, and caused deindustrialization in the US show the need for a wiser approach on both sides. Consumer prices in China declined 0.8 of percentage point in January over previous year. People in Hong Kong cross the border to shop in city of Shenzen for lower priced goods. These are the first signs of deflation in China. This is the beginning of a repeat of Japan's experience of the last three decades. Rapid growth followed by unsustainable growth after 2000 in China created problems for the environment and climate change because the growth was compressed into a few years and China's size. The experience of Japan's growth in the 1980's was repeated but this time on a scale that reflects China's population of 1.4 billion people compared to 125 million for Japan. The result many American factories unable to compete with lower costs in China closed in 2000-2015 leading to a general decline in towns and communities across the US destroying livelihoods.The effect is magnified as the support services jobs and wages that go with factory jobs magnifies the effect on jobs by a factor of three or four. The result is a situation that did not have to happen this way hurting both the climate and supply chains, hurting both America and China as business interests in both countries made short sighted decisions. As America diversifies from concentration of supply chain in China, into India and Vietnam, the process needs to be such that it benefits both the American and Indian people not be allowed to be left to business alone to determine as happened with China. This is one of the lessons of this period. ...

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World leaders meet at the UN for action on climate change, especially Obama and Hu Jintao of China who represent countries that generate 40% of carbon emissions worldwide. Hu set the target for nuclear power at 15% of energy for 2020 from 8% now, and India set atarget of 20% for renewable sources of energy for 2020. President Obama said he saw the need for the developing industrial nations, by which he meant China, India and Brazil, to adopt targets for curbing emissions in any agreement, but Hu Jintao was vague about any specific targets. So the gap remains as the US goes to the Copenhagen talks on climate change in late 2009.

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Trade is just one aspect of the Biden Economic plan. It covers US manufacturing and jobs, Climate Change Action and Renewable Energy, Cost of Living and Wages for workers, Interest rates and inflation, and Capital Allocation with government partnering with the private sector in key industries such as electric cars, solar panels. It has the overwhelming support of most Americans- seven out of 10 Americans favor it polls show. What is described here in the Washington Post as a change from decades of trade policy since Reagan/Bush, Clinton/Obama, is also a response to the loss of key midwestern states by Democrats to Trump in thepresidential election of 2016, and the upheavals for democracy that Biden calls the struggle for the soul of the nation on the White House website. Biden is simply saying that the old policies were a mistake, a huge mistake, and Biden is correcting the Trump response which was loud but lacked the substance that is in the Biden plan through capital allocation in size and government actions to back this up. In this move he now has the support of both Democrats and Republicans. As Greg Ip has pointed out in the WSj no one during the Clinton administration when it engaged China with the World Trade Organization on trade imagined China would replace America as the dominant nation in manufacturing, the size and th scale also affected the climate, the environment in China, and created huge inequalities in the US and China that both nations are trying to correct, Biden in the US and Xi in China. It could even be said these policies were a failure because the size and scale simply overwhelmed everything else with growth rates in China of 12-14%, and the fallout in the near collapse of the economy in the years ahead from hypergrowth.  ...

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Kristof of the NYT writes about DJT Action in Venezuela January 3, 2026.  Some of the least understood aspects of the US president's language on Venezuela- The president's reference to oil resources is not for the US to benefit from the oil reserves. It is about oil in the sense that the oil industry in Venezuela is in total disrepair and broken from years and decades of nationalization followed by lack of investment, lack of western technology.  Sanctions put a huge price on the Venezuelan economy with the brunt of it borne by ordinary people- the same people that a socialist like Hugo Chavez thought he could help with his erratic ideology. As China, and now India has learned the only way to get ahead in this world for nations is to invest, invest, invest with larger and larger pools of capital, technologies and labour. By alienating the US or EU there is a loss of technologies and of investment so that one is going to bat with only one strike and you are out, so that from Day 1, China under Mao, India under Nehru had lost the race, so did all the "socialist" regimes in the world. Conversely China under Deng and successors, and India under Modi are breaking development records. How does the US change this? First it removes the sanctions on the Venezuelan economy. Second it gives Chevron the green light for increased production. Oil facilities of the Venezuelan oil company will get foreign investment and US investment from American oil companies with returns for both and the state oil revenues invested under a government that is able to invest it free of corruption or it being funneled out of the country to support other regimes in Latin America. This will rebuild the country's health system, its broken infrastructure, restore its finances, and make it in a decade one of the advanced economies in Latin America. But only if- the gangs and other private militias, the other military elements from the two decades of utter mismanagement and drug trafficking are  removed. A new way will have to be devised that the US as to work out ad hoc meaning in the process of doing, invented that meets the conditions of getting this done and the process of reconstruction of Venezuela under the Monroe doctrine of keeping the entire western hemisphere free of such elements. The US achieved this with the help of Great Britain in 1823 when it was only 50 years since it's founding in 1776. The US has the resources in 2026 to make this happen in the interests of the people of the western hemisphere, in the quality of life of people in the western hemisphere. It does not seek any country's resources, it seeks the development of the countries in the western hemisphere in the great tradition of Jefferson, Monroe, Lincoln, FDR and JFK. ...

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US president DJT State of the Union Address to Congress Feb 24, 2026. BBC Analysis shows the president going on the offense to take up the issue of illegal migrants, cost of living, and business investment to get the economy to grow. DJT compared the $1 trillion in business investment under Biden over 4 years with the $18 trillion that he had secured in his first year. He said the tariffs were here to stay whatever the Supreme Court decision stated because all the agreements with EU, UK, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, other countries will remain in place as all countries want it that way. The president stated that through tariffs he had secured benefits for getting manufacturing back to the US to create jobs and raise incomes. The Big Beautiful Bill also added to business investment through its writeoff in one time for equipment and plant. The oil price per gallon had gone down to $1.85 a gallon at the pump lowering the cost of living and inflation. He pointed out that the economy was strong with low inflation lower than 3%, unemployment at 4% and ecponomic growth in 2025 close to 3% with some quarters exceeding 4-5%. The US ice hockey team attended the event and the Congressional medal of honor was given to soldiers in the Venezuelan helicopter dangerous mission, and to a World War II pilot who was 100 years old. Transgender was shown as an issue with parents shown with their daughter who had suffered from transgender laws that he asked Congress to change. Calling some of this crazy as parents and families were suffering as a result. ...

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Decades of investment in infrastructure and manufacturing have given China a strong grip on manufacturing. China's economy depends on exports with sluggish domestic demand. One economist in Hong Kong says Vietnam is the key, if tariffs are placed on Vietnam it will be tough he says, because Chinese goods enter the US from third countries.

In 2025 China's world trade is imbalanced to an extraordinarily large degree, hurting thriving manufacturing communities around the world, and depends on a concentration of port logistics, manufacturing and lack of fair trade practices, that allow $3.5 trillion in exports while taking in only $2.5 trillion in imports. By 2008 America was waking up to this, DJT actually flagged it a decade later, Biden realized this, in the second term what appears like a whirlwind 100 days is really action on many fronts that is coming one to two decades late. 

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Queen Elizabeth's voice is heard on the microphone before a meeting of the Welsh parliament: "We only know about people who are not coming to the Glasgow Climate Change Summit, its very irritating that they say but they don't do." China had promised to peak coal use by 2030, and help achieve reducing global warming under Paris summit goals. This looks like a remote possibility today as China faces blackouts and factory closings from reducing coal use.

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Brazil president Lula at COP30 Belem, Brazil- mixing oil drilling plans with plans for climate change for Amazon forests. This is not a contradiction in today's world as many nations including China, India are depending on coal and moving forward with solar and wind energy, and the US is also drilling for oil and it's private sector continues moving forward on renewable energy. In 2025 cost of living action for working class families means getting cheaper sources of energy, and at the same time climate change requires new invention and scientific advances in developing solar, wind, nuclear and other renewable energy. US Biden administration accepted this combination approach and it is also practiced under the current US Republican administration with different degrees of emphasis to meet current and future challenges in the best way possible.

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Critics say China uses debt trap diplomacy in Africa through its infrastructure investment projects. Silja Frohlich of DW.com speaks to Eric Olander of the non-partisan China Africa Project to make an assessment of what is happening. Olander says Africa is facing a demographic change of immense proportions with about a billion people that are being added by 2025. For African leaders what are their options- do they build the infrastructure that would lead to the industrialization that creates jobs for all these people, even as they use their children's future to borrow vast sums of money. Global and private markets would charge 7 times the interest that the Chinese are charging, says Olander. China has built roads, railways, bridges, hospitals, and other infrastructure for which there was not enough financing from other countries. Since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched 5 years ago it has built four new railways- the Mombasa-Nairobi railway, Addis Ababa-Djibouti (759 kms), Abuja- Kaduna (186 kms) and Angola's Benguela railway (1866 kms). China has also helped Africa to develop its options with alternative sources of investment helping it negotiate new investments from different sources as Kenya and Uganda are doing today.  At the conference in 2019 in Beijing President Xi offered cancellation of interest till 2018 for loans to Ethiopia. A new effort to introduce transparency and improve terms and offer debt forgiveness is underway to change China's image for investment in Africa. Olander sees China making a solid contribution over the past 10 years funded by Chinese money. ...

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US trade with Germany now exceeds China's trade with Germany. With the change in supply chains, slower German economy leading to lower imports and a slowing Chinese economy, this is likely to lead to US and Germany having increasing trade relations and two way trade from now on.

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Sandstorms from Inner Mongolia and areas north of Beijing have covered the capital in an orange haze in March 2021. This has shown the importance of tackling climate change and ensuring that grasslands and vegetation are protected in Northern China and surrounding countries. Experts say this is not the only problem, much depends on how the overuse of ground water for industrial, mining and other purposes is tackled.

Worst hit by drought as a result of climate change is Yunnan. Also affected are eastern coastal provinces of Zhejiang, Fujian, and the southern province of Guangdong.

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This WSJ editorial looks beyond Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It says for decades during which China modernized its economy with US investment and technology, Chinese policy remained peaceful reunification and no set date. The US under this agreement for peaceful reunification agreed that it would follow One China policy and not follow the earlier policy during the Cold War of close defense ties with Taiwan. Now it appears from Chinese policy under Xi Jinping that Chinese plans are for reunification of Taiwan by any means and with a date of the next decade or even in the next 18 months, says WSJ. This is a change of previous Chinese policy says WSJ and the US response should be to act with a change in its policy to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself during an invasion of the islands around Taiwan or other invasion.

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The WSJ cites economic studies that show 60% of China's overseas loans are troubled in 2022 compared to 10% in 2010. China has scaled down the Belt and Road Initiative and is reorganizing the effort to introduce risk controls and reduce lending. China's preferred approach in an increasing interest rate environment is to extend the maturity of loans. Yet the climate change disasters and rising rates have put many countries into a highly indebted position. China no longer touts the Belt and Road as a way for developing countries to advance their economies and infrastructure development.

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China's plan to lift all birth restrictions by 2025. The one child policy was replaced with a two child policy, and now with a three child policy in 2021, as China's birth rate declined below the level needed for a stable population. The plan now is to lift all restrictions as the decline in population is expected to be very steep. Not enough young people to support a growing elderly population is a major problem for the economy. A mindset has developed over 70 years for one or two children that is seen as hard to change. Women now work and pursue careers, their expectations in life have changed. Couples are also finding it hard to get access to schools and afford the costs of education and home space needed for larger families. Housing in most cities is costly, making it harder to raise families. Attitudes are hard to change. Experts see little impact of the new policies. The three northeastern provinces suffered most in the shift to a market economy. This is where the drop in birthrates is very steep. The government will remove all birth restrictions in the northeast before applying it to the whole of China. ...

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Pessimism about the pace of democratization in China with the continued dominance of the Communist party in the business and economc structures of the country. The interrelationships of the party with state owned companies and the role of its 80 million members in running all aspects of life in China. Experts in China say the 18th party Conress showed no signs of change in the party's control and no sign of experimentation to allow for change comng from within the system so that China could establish a constitutional democracy with the rule of law. Experts in China say the new leaders Jinping and Keqiang may not be able to make changes even if they wanted to, because of the party's control and the earlier presidents and prime ministers from the last two decades who still retain a strong influence on the direction of the country.

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France's Thomas Piketty concentrated on inequality and arrives at no solutions or relief, just a historical summary that is also intuitively seen. The pandemic, climate change's impact on agriculture and livable planet, the Ukraine war have raised three questions right before our eyes that are broader and cover more and deeper ground.  The pandemic showed that the dependence on manufacturing in remote locations was a serious error. Climate change showed that agriculture the ability to feed the world itself was affected by this dependence on remote location manufacturing.  Much of this manufacturing was shipped out to China, Europe and the US lost their manufacturing base and with the communities spread out  across the US and EU lost factories and work. Manufacturing was not just shipped out to China, the process was concentrated in a short span of time leading to destruction of the environment on an unprecedented scale in China and the world  by burning lots of coal and fossil fuels. The Russian invasion of Ukraine showed the failure of this arrangement  and exposed its cracks  for Europe, US, and the free world in Asia and Latin America. The shipping out of manufacturing in this way not only destroyed communities and jobs in manufacturing in the US and the EU, but also led to such a broad accumulation of  dollar reserves in Russia and China, that enabled the invasion of neighboring countries in Europe without serious consequences to their economies, the invasion of Ukraine and the threatened takeover of Taiwan. By tackling these issues and building a supply chain concentrated more at home and in the free world better manufacturing jobs will be created in Europe and the US and in the nations of the free world that mitigate and reduce all the effects of inequality that Piketty and others talk about. The newer factories built in advanced nations of the EU and the US and set up in the free world in Asia and other countries, will be built with climate change in mind and make the shift away from coal and fossil fuels, and for conservation plus efficiency in use of energy at every step in the newly built supply chain. The results will be good for all countries in the world including the US, EU, China and India, as climate change can be aggressively tackled in this way with the latest technology and trillions of dollar of capital investments for the benefit of all. ...

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Three tankers held off the coast of Mumbai by India's Cost Guard have been sanctioned for carrying Iranian oil. India stopped buying Iranian oil in DJT's first term 2016-2020. In his second term DJT wanted India to stop buying sanctioned Russian oil as a way to reduce funding for Russia's invasion of Ukraine now in its fourth year. India has stopped buying Russian oil as part of the goodwill effort to reach trade agreements with the US, EU, and Germany. The seizing of the oil tankers is part of a new effort by India to support bringing Russia to the negotiating table to end the Ukraine war. Russia has demanded Ukraine turn over Donetsk region to end the war, which is a major stumbling block as Ukraine says there are Ukrainians living in Donetsk region. Germany's increase in its defense budget and investment in its armed forces has led to Germany+ (Germany plus UK and France) acting as the chief supporter of Ukraine, after the US has taken more of a neutral stand. The US basically wanting to end the war in 2026 so that the US can address the situation in the western hemisphere with drug and migrant trafficking gangs in Mexico, Venezuela and Columbia, and rebuild its economy to bring back manufacturing from China. For India the guiding principle of its foreign policy is Gandhiji's thinking and advice for fairness and peaceful coexistence - it does not believe in a British inspired NATO expanding on the borders of Russia, and at the same time does not see how a war on a neighboring Russian speaking region is in Russia's continued interest for a fourth year with bombing of energy infrastructure to leave Kviv in darkness. Non -alignment was Nehru's not Gandhiji's idea- the ideas of respect and fairness are basic to Gandhiji's thinking and India will remain true to his ideas in world relations. One aspect of this change in world affairs is missed by all and the media, that is that with the EU and US+ Japan, and India+ Indonesia there is a population of 1 billion of western peoples, and about 2 billion of Asian peoples, for a total of 3 billion people. This is a region three times the size of China, which with its access to capital and technology, labour and good governance is in a position to industrialize and reindustrialize, and bring manufacturing/science and technology to the core of this economic region by 2035. An industrialized India with 2X-3X the size of its current GDP will still be governed on Gandhiji's ideas for world relations in 2047. ...