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Britain's prime minister spent 3 nights in intensive care for coronavirus. He said the "development of a vaccine is the most urgent shared endeavor of our lifetimes." He will confirm Britain's pledge of 388 million pounds for vaccine research, tests and treatments, part of 744 million pounds to the the global effort against coronavirus. "The more we pull together and share our research the faster our scientists will succeed."

An online pledging conference will take place on Monday as part of the vaccine fundraising drive of the European Union and other countries. The initiative from the EU and president of the EU Ursula von der Leyen, is to raise 7.5 billion euros for vaccine research and development of a vaccine for coronavirus. It has the support of Britain, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Norway, Japan, Canada, and other countries. The month long investment drive will go on till the Global Vaccine Summit on June 4.

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Britain's prime minister Theresa May finally spells out some of the costs to Britain's economy in following Brexit and leaving the European Union. The EU's Barnier made it clear that Britain would not be able to choose what it wants out of the negotiations. As May put is "there will be consequences for our market access."  So far May preferred ambiguity so that she could reconcile the conflicting factions in her Conservative party. The Labor Party in the Opposition and the EU have called for clarity on the issue of Northern Ireland, with the EU saying Northern Ireland would remain part of the EU customs union, and the Labor Party's Corbyn saying the fragile Ireland peace accords must be preserved and Ireland should have an open border. May did not clarify on the Irish issue. However her new remarks clarified that much of what exists today in cooperation inside the EU would be preserved to minimize negative consequences of Brexit, and Britain would also continue to be affected by the decisions of the European Court of Justice. Barnier says he welcomes May's explicit recognition for the first time of the tradeoffs involved in doing Brexit, something the pro-Brexit faction within the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson has tried to ignore. Experts including Bank of England governor Mark Carney have stated that Brexit will leave Britain's economy poorer.   ...

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Brexiters dream of a revival of colonial trade links with a nostalgic view of Britain. The idea of "global Britain." Yet there is a flaw in this vision as only 3.3% of Indian exports went to Britain in 2016, and 17% went to EU countries. As an exporter Britain barely comes into India's top 20 trading partners. Part of the reason is that British companies build domestic plants in India. Much of the optimism comes from the UK-India Technology partnership agreed between prime ministers Modi and May in April 2018. 

On a trade deal the EU is working on this since 2007 so a trade deal will take a long time in negotiations.

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The pound falls in value to $1.30 as Mr. Boris Johnson rejects the requirement stated by Mr. Macron of France that Britain must follow EU rules. Mr. Johnson says Britain  will choose sovereignty over anything else, creating the possibility of a hard Brexit. He says the UK should not be expected to follow EU rules, anymore than the EU should be expected to follow UK rules. Business leaders hope these are opening statements only. 

Mr. Johnson want a Canada style agreement or failing this an Australia style agreement, and failing this he would stay with the existing Withdrawal Agreement with the EU he negotiated earlier. The UK wants to complete negotiations for a deal by December 31, 2020.

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With the lack of action from House Speaker Mike Johnson on a bill for $61 billion in Ukraine aid bill which passed in the Senate  France, Germany and Britain are speeding up their defense supplies manufacturing and making larger investments with a coordinated effort with other EU nations. The problem say former NATO officials is the lack of investment in spare facilities. Rheinmetall is working on the German side and French defense firms are contributing to increased defense manufacturing.The European Defense Agency's deputy chief executive says production will require sustained investment ant finalized contracts. The European Defense Agency says EU nations have invested $52 billion in 2022 on defense gear.

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There is serious lack of depth in leadership in the Tory party today. Names proposed in The Guardian for Tory leaders after the July 4 election should Rishi Sunak have to resign are clearly short of what Britain needs in leadership. It depends on which Tory MP can hold on to his seat. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kim Badennoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, all lack what is needed to lead the Conservatives on July 5, 2024. This has been true all through the last two decades.  David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss who preceded Sunak for most of the last decade were also lacking in leadership. The decade wasted with Nigel Farage and David Cameron, Boris Johnson trying to get Britain out of the European Union has hurt Britain. Today most Britons want to go back to a Britain that is growing as part of the EU and Europe. 

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France and Britain are at loggerheads over fishing rights in UK waters. UK will now have 4 Navy patrol ships protect its fishing waters in the event of a no deal Brexit. French and other EU fishermen get 60% of the fish taken from UK waters. UK exclusive economic zone extends 200 miles from the shore. Conservative ministers have doubled the total fleet of patrol ships from four to eight. During patrol in extreme cases a EU boat can be impounded and taken to the nearest EU port, otherwise it could be boarded and inspected.

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In a meeting charged with emotion Theresa May says she will not run again as a way to get support from a pro-Brexit MP's faction in her party that includes Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees Moog. Some members of this faction support exiting the EU even if it means no-deal is reached on future relations between the EU and Britain including agreement on membership in the customs union.

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Difficulties facing Britain which depends on continental Europe for exports and would be affected by whatever happens in Europe, and yet is reduced to being on the sidelines. This comes at a difficult time for the Cameron government, which is a coalition of Conservative party members who are euroskeptics, and the Liberal party members who are the most europhile of the the three major British parties. Sarkozy and Merkel have made clear that they would move ahead with a closer fiscal union within the eurozone, no matter what Britain's views are. This leaves David Cameron's government to what Labor leader, Ed Miliband, called "handwringing," as Britain can do little about the future direction of the EU. Cameron is able to please backbenchers in parliament from his party with talk about protecting British interests, but has no neotiating leverage, according to Steven Fielding, director of the Center for British Politics at the University of Nottingham. Britain may also have antagonized European leaders. Sarkozy said about Cameron and British government views: "You say you hate the euro and now you want to interfere with our meetings." This also happens as Britain faces rising unemployment, and deficits larger than anticipated after austerity measures taken by the Cameron government....

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The Guardian newspaper in Britain says the EU proposals of Boris Johnson's minority government do not face up to the realities. The three problems with the proposals are failure to consider the will of all the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland who favor a open and free border between the two Irelands. The DUP is the party in Ireland that does not speak for the whole of Ireland or Northern Ireland, its people voted to Remain in the European Union, and Johnson is following the DUP.  The Good Friday Agreement and the Irish peace accords include moral and political obligations made by Britain. Boris Johnson and Tory hardliners do not plan to respect these commitments to an open free flowing border in Ireland.  The vague customs arrangements between the UK and the EU are not what the EU would consider as normal and are problem for consumers and public. It creates a hole in EU customs arrangements and is not a workable solution. For these reasons the Guardian rejects the idea that this is a compromise, and finds the word "perfidy," or breaking promises to the Irish people, and in new ways from Tory hardliners from the past. ...

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The parliamentary elections in Britain have changed the environment in which the first day of Brexit talks took place on June 19, 2017. There is a great deal of uncertainty as the government of Theresa May has only a thin majority in parliament. A debate is now taking place on how much support Brexit has after the parliamentary election, and what kind of Brexit should take place, what are the risks and uncertainties for Britain. As expected the European Union negotiator Michael Barnier emphasized that some issues have to be resolved first- that Britain owes the European Union between 40 to 60 billion euros over 5 years, the rights of EU citizens in Britain, for the beneficiaries of EU policies and for the impact on borders particularly in Ireland.  Only then would the EU discuss access to the EU market for Britain. Mr Barnier handed British negotiator David Davis a hiking stick, a way of saying this will be a long hike up the mountain. In Britain there is a growing sense that the talks cannot be completed by the current deadline in 2019, that it might take 5 years. Another hurdle- Britain cannot have access to the single market if it seeks to control immigration. For the European Union there is the additional problem of how to negotiate with a government that may not be there in a few months, say experts. For the European Union Brexit is now more of a distraction, as there are other issues that rank higher such as relations with the Trump administration, NATO and Russia, refugees and borders.       ...

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Denmark's Mette Frederiksen and policy of no asylum in EU for illegal migrants is becoming the norm in Europe- as Germany's Merz supports this policy- and the US. Britain under Starmer's Labour has struggled with it's justice system unable to deal with the situation of asylum because it was never designed for people of other countries entering the country in this way. Simply fixing the justice system as Yvette Cooper plans to do, which was never intended for this purpose ignores that there are 111,000 asylum cases as reported by the Times of London in June 2025 compared to 7000 in 2022.  Mette Frederiksen is a Socialist and has shown that this has nothing to do with politics, only common sense application of the laws of Britain, Denmark, Germany, US and other countries that only way to enter the country is legally. 

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Upcoming Biden meetings with G-7 leaders, EU leaders, NATO, and president Putin of Russia. Biden's goal of US leadership in Asia, Latin America and Europe in close alliance with allies Britain, France, Japan, India and Australia. 

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Michael Gove heads the XO (exit operations) group for no deal planning on Brexit. This group met twice in one week and the planning is being done by ministers for no deal.  There is growing sentiment in the government that with the EU not budging, trading on World Trade Organization terms after January 1, 2021 is the only or best option for Britain. Britain would simply walk away from the unproductive talks.

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The Times of London provides this view of Brexit and the no-confidence vote against Theresa May from her own party, the Conservatives which she survived. Views are from Paris, Berlin and Rome. French commentators agreed that the paralysis on Brexit and the situation of Theresa May are a result of a mendacious referendum campaign, and a understanding that Britain is only going to lose by leaving the European Union.  Le Figaro, conservative newspaper says the British were sold an impossible vision by pro-Brexit politicians egged on b ancestral arrogance, that they would somehow have upper hand in negotiations. Le Monde the centre left newspaper pointed out that the Britain's economic losers were hoodwinked by a branch of the conservative elite. It said enormous lies were used in the campaign - Boris Johnson saying that we are leaving the EU but we will keep all the advantages.It added an insight that "Brexit is not straightforward because the EU today is a British creation: single market, free trade, enlargement, serving British interests."   ...

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Brexit is now seen as based on some mistaken ideas that were presented to the public without much thought or seriousness. One of these ideas is that Britain would simply be free to sign its own trade deals with other countries. One such deal would be with a 1.3 billion people rapidly expanding economy like India. Yet India - Britain trade is very small today and is vastly overshadowed by EU - India trade relations. In fact the European Union is India's largest trade partner. By removing non tariff barriers and tariffs India's economy would expand by 1.3 % annually adding $25 billion to India's GDP each year, Ifo research shows. The EU would see 0.14% growth in GDP, a gain of 21 billion euros annually. Germany would boost its automotive and machine tools industries, and India its textile and services industries.  Many British companies manufacture in India and are not exporters. This situation is not likely to suddenly change with Britain able to strike its own trade deals. ...

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This editorial in the WSJ points out that it is not enough for a country to vote to leave the European Union. It must be ready to leave the EU, as it says happened in the case of Greece. Greece was willing to leave the EU but not capable of going it alone. This is true of Britain as Britain cannot bear the economic cost of losing the advantages of trade and commerce without serious consequences. Mrs. May's deal for a permanent customs union, a trade deal that mimics Norway's one with the EU, is not fully supported within her own party. Preserving relations with Ireland and Northern Ireland are important and some Brexit Leave leaders have alienated the Irish.  As the WSJ puts it GDP growth obscured regional disparities and shortfalls in productivity and innovation- so that businesses are right to warn of the consequnces of a hasty Brexit or a no deal Brexit. In short, Britain cannot afford to lose the trade benefits of EU membership. This should have been known from the beginning on all sides to avoid what has been a 2 year long fiasco which will affect Britain's future. A strategic error has been made by Brexit supporters in not thinking things through before launching out into the referendum. ...

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A professor of economics of innovation and public value at University College, London, says one-off deals such as the one with Land Rover to produce electric car batteries is not an adequate response to the big industrial strategies of the US and the European Union. Mariana Mazzucato says in this Guardian article the UK's decision to leave the EU is costing 100 billion pounds in output. Of 100 leading Uk manufacturers about half say their suppliers in the EU are more cautious about doing business in the UK. She compares the US industrial strategy that combines public and private investment of $3.5 trillion over the next decade, and the EU's for $2 trillion with Britain's effort. She says of the UK that it has nothing like this and worse with austerity it is moving in the opposite direction. Another problem is the change in governments of the Tories and new industrial policy every time there is a new minister. Business investment in UK is 19% less than the G7 average. The civil service needs investment, as she says Britain has become addicted to outsourcing the core functions of the public sector. Mazzucato says the government for aid to the private sector should do what Germany and France have done to expect reduction in carbon emissions, or as the US has done with Biden's Chips Act of giving aid given that there are no share buybacks by companies.   ...

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The British pound was trading at $1.50 just before voting to leave the EU in June 2016. Since then years of wrangling on Brexit led to uncertainty and the pound dropping to $1.22. The decisive win of Boris Johnson and the Conservatives in 2019 led to removing much of the uncertainty, and the British pound recovered to $1.34 on prediction of Johnson's win. The big win makes it certain that Britain can leave the EU by Jan 31st 2020.

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Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

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As the first day of talks happens in Brussels between Barnier of the EU and Davis of Britain, EU officials say Britain must meet spending pledges it made of 60 billion euros. Britain says there are different legal views on what is owed. Experts see little chance the two sides can reach an agreement by the deadline of March 2019. With the fragile coalition government in Britain talks appear to be very precarious with no clear view what Brexit means.

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The US received a boost in the economy with larger public spending than the European Union countries and more spending on vaccines. This is changing quickly as the EU has secured a large order of vaccines from Pfizer and other companies. France and Germany are now making steady progress in their vaccination drives. Britain has already secured results in the NHS vaccination drive, a leader in the field.

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The Times of London reports on the decision by the Supreme Court of Britain that Boris Johnson abused his powers and acted unlawfully in suspending parliament. Separately BBC analysis shows that even though Johnson is relying on polls and planning to run people vs. parliament this means that its the courts as part of what he calls the establishment he is running against.  Nigel Farage called for Johnson's adviser Cummings to resign showing that the Leave campaign is not what it was when Britain voted to leave the EU in the first referendum on June 23, 2016, now over 3 years and 3 months since then.

 

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The pound trades at 1.23 U.S. dollars and the Euro at 1.12 U.S. dollars. Both currencies lost about 3% in 2019 and the pound could reach parity with the U.S. dollar if Boris Johnson takes Britain out of the EU without a negotiated settlement.

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This essay in the Economist warns that most of the public does not understand the dangers of the idea of no Brexit as a preferred option to a Brexit deal that gives too much to the EU. It says this is dangerous in terms of the harsh effects at the border with Ireland and on the economies of Ireland and Britain. It points out that the private view of the EU is very negative towards Brexit compared to the diplomatic comments, so that little should be taken for granted. The European Union and Britain would in the event of no deal on Brexit not follow agreed  terms such on as the 40 billion pounds exit bill, guarantee of EU citizens rights, averting of a hard border in Ireland. The unfriendly nature of such a no deal would lead to aggravating its effects, argues the Economist.  The Economist estimate is that about 4% of GDP would be lost over 5 years for Britain and Ireland. Supply chains would be disrupted. Depending on WTO rules alone is not sufficient as the EU has bilateral deals with many countries. The car industry is particularly vulnerable as it employs 800,000 people and exports 80% of output- it would lose EU certification and face 10% tariffs. EU has made clear that trade for chemicals, pharmaceuticals or cars depends on meeting its standards. These are only a few of the problems in trade as the list goes on and on. ...