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Nigel Farage is making a comeback in European Union elections in Britain. He led the Independence party and has formed a new Brexit Party to contest the elections. He says the Brexit supporters were deserted in the way the Conservative Party bungled Britain's leaving the European Union. As a result of loss of support for Theresa May with the mess created by repeated failures to pass Brexit deals in parliament, some polls show the Brexit Party surging to 34% of the vote inEuropean elections. The Conservative Party at 11%, and the Labour Party at 21%. The Liberal Democrats at 13%. The Conservative party fragments, and the Labour Party loses supporters to the Greens and Liberal Democrats. Another change is that some of the pro-Brexit supporters of the Labour Party in the middle and the north of the country may shift their vote to the Brexit party. The Conservative party's losses of support are a result of the failure of Theresa May to hold her party together. In the case of the Labour party even though it had 40%  of the vote in the last British election, it is faced with the fact that it has an odd mix of supporters. In the north and the middle of the country its working class support comes partly from Pro-Brexit supporters, and in the cities and London the support is from more liberal, better educated people. This puts both the main parties in the situation which they never thought they would be in.  Mr. Farage says its OK for Britain to leave the European Union without a deal. Prime Minister May has taken great pains to forge a deal, even a cross party deal with Labour if necessary. This has alienated the most fervent Brexit supporters in the Conservative Party who favor a no-deal Brexit. Much of this comes from caution that a no-deal Brexit would hurt Britain's economy and lower growth. A large majority in parliament believes a no deal Brexit would be disastrous for Britain. Nigel Farage does not have to deal with such distant matters as economic growth, the British pound and GDP.       ...

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The Iran nuclear deal of 2015 begins to unravel as the European Union takes the first step towards the reimposing of sanctions. Britain, France and Germany triggered a dispute settlement mehanism in the agreement which can result in the United Nations reimposing international sanction on Iran's economy, banks, and top officials within 2 months. This follows Iran's resumption of nuclear activities banned under the agreement. Earlier the U.S. withdrew from the agreement and the European Union tried to save the agreement. Recent tensions and the U.S. insistence on the renegotiating for a new agreement have led to this collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran.

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Putin's Russia year end QA sessions- "Direct Line" Marathon of 3 million questions. Two from the BBC. Answering the BBC Putin said "if you don't cheat us like you cheated us with Nato's eastward expansion", there would be no more war activity from Russia. Putin believes NATO and European leaders had promised no expansion to Gorbachev before the Soviet Union collapsed. Archives from 1950 show that NATO was formed as Soviets expanded after World War II. At the time Truman took up defense of Turkey and Greece from Soviet expansion. As Eastern Europe became part of the Soviet sphere the situation went on from 1950 to 1990 of 40 years with regional wars in Korea, Vietnam. The Russian leaders including Putin who set Russia on the path to economic recovery had a deep sense of loss of respect as Russia was treated as another European country by Netherlands, Britain and France, Germany former colonial powers that had difficult relations with Russia. It is this deep sense of loss of respect that these leaders felt after the Soviet Union collapsed and Russia suffered economic and political decline from 1990 to 2000 which was reversed by decades of economic growth. This was a period of economic growth in China. As China asserted itself in Hong Kong, Russia pushed back in Crimea and Ukraine regions that had long ties with Russia of language and culture. Had western leaders disbanded NATO and formed a new alliance with new goals with a vision for peaceful coexistence with Russia in the east the situation could have turned to be different. In 2025 the European powers Germany, France and Britain are not willing to see Russia gain points from the outright invasion of Ukraine presenting new obstacles to a peaceful settlement. Ukrainian sentiment is also a factor as giving parts of Donetsk would be unpopular.  ...

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The Economist magazine says parliament in Britain should act to pass a motion of no- confidence for the Boris Johnson government. It says Mr.Johnson's action stifling parliamentary democracy by suspending parliament in the weeks before the Brexit date of October 31st is reason for the opposition and Tory rebels to set aside their differences. Without this Mr. Johnson could take Britain out of the European Union without any deal. This would damage the economy, leaving Britons poorer, and create unrest in Northern Ireland.

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UK prime minister Sunak makes changes to policies of the UK post-Brexit that bring the UK closer to France and the European Union. This follows a deterioration of Britain's relations with the EU and France under Boris Johnson during the years Brexit happened. Sunak also comes up with a different policy for Northern Ireland closer to the EU's position. Mark Landler has covered Britain and the EU for NYT over three decades. He calls Boris Johnson's approach bombastic and one that made loud claims for "Global Britain" with little to show in results.

Sunak's challenges are in Britain with strikes across transportation, health sector and NHS, and the cost of living crisis. Labour party is seen as having better solutions and as more caring in its policies for both the environment, workers and families in 2023.

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There is serious lack of depth in leadership in the Tory party today. Names proposed in The Guardian for Tory leaders after the July 4 election should Rishi Sunak have to resign are clearly short of what Britain needs in leadership. It depends on which Tory MP can hold on to his seat. Suella Braverman, Priti Patel, Kim Badennoch, James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Penny Mordaunt, all lack what is needed to lead the Conservatives on July 5, 2024. This has been true all through the last two decades.  David Cameron, Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Liz Truss who preceded Sunak for most of the last decade were also lacking in leadership. The decade wasted with Nigel Farage and David Cameron, Boris Johnson trying to get Britain out of the European Union has hurt Britain. Today most Britons want to go back to a Britain that is growing as part of the EU and Europe. 

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This NYT editorial on Nov. 23, 2012, points out the importance of a forward looking Britain that has a needed voice in the affairs of the European Union, and positive engagement with the nations in the eurozone that make up its largest trading partner. Roger Carr, head of the British Confederation of Industry, made just such a call saying British engagement with the rest of Europe was "the linchpin of our wider global trade ambitions." The danger now is that because of missteps in the managing of affairs in the EU, including the hasty setup of the euro currency without proper safeguards for debt of individual countries and the strict fiscal arrangements imposed by Germany that stifle the chance of growth, the mood in Britain is now shifting towards exit from the EU. An Opinion/Observer poll suggests a referendum held today is likely to win an yes vote for Britain to leave the EU, a huge mistake for British interests. A referendum is expected to be scheduled for 2015.

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Research shows that some countries will benefit more than others through climate change action for net zero emissions by 2050. India, Argentina, Britain and European Union, Japan and South Korea will be able to reduce imports of fossil fuels and invest in infrastructure, renewable energy, and create jobs in new sectors. Countries that depend on fossil fuel exports Australia, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states, will see much of their coal, oil and natural gas assets, left in the ground. The US and Canadian shale oil producers will also be affected, along with Chinese producers but with a broadly diversified economy the US and China will continue to grow. This paper with lead author from University of Exeter, in Nature, shows $11 trillion in stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground by 2036 for major oil producing countries under the most probable scenario.  This means the transition will have to be carefully handled as some states such as Texas, Alberta will be hit hard in North America. The paper also shows that countries that are major oil and gas exporters such as Russia and Saudi Arabia will not be pioneers or push aggressively for climate change in the way the European Union, Britain, and India are doing at COP26 because of this problem of stranded fossil fuel assets left in the ground. China and the US have strong renewable energy sectors and will join the EU, Britain and India. ...

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There is a sense from Remainers and Brexiters in the Conservatives and in Labour that Brexit is "acting as a drag on UK growth and limiting its potential" after the pandemic and inflation. Senior members of both parties are meeting in Oxfordshire including David Lamy of Labour and Michael Gove of the Conservatives, and the heads of banks and large business. Gove and Boris Johnson led the campaign for Brexit, and Gove is now interested in ensuring Brexit is not viewed as a failure in the long term. The Office of Budget. Responsibility says Brexit will reduce Britain's per capita GDP  by 4%, over the 15 years from 2016. Labour sees it as a threat to any future Labour government to leave unaddressed the relations with the European Union. In a bipartisan effort what sort of conversation to have with the EU so that Britain's economy benefits? President Biden's effort in working with like minded Republicans for America's renewal may be seen by Labour and the Conservatives as reason for doing the same in Britain to ensure European recovery.   ...

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The results from the EU elections show neither traditional centre right or centre left parties are able to form a majority. The euroskeptic parties in Italy led by Mr. Salvini and in France by Marie Le Pen have not won with the kind of support they expected. Also important is that these parties in Italy and France have changed their position on membership in the European Union. They now support remaining with the single currency the Euro, and staying in the EU, hoping to change it from the inside. In Spain the Vxx party on the right has from its inception supported the Euro and the European Union. Only Nigel Farage's Brexit party is for Britain leaving the EU. These parties such as the League in Italy and the National Party in France are in accord with globalism and global capitalism. The changes they call for are now on immigration, migration, and against a single market for labour with social services for new immigrants or migrants. They are for ending multiculturalism in favor of nativist national ideas, sweeping indictments of bureaucracy and elites, curbing migration and building national pride. In Spain their is also concern for separatist movements such as in Catalonia for the Vox party, and interest in stronger federal structures. There is no coherent strategy for these new parties to tackle problems such as lack of growth, widening regional divide within the countries. Yet now the discussions will be about what the  EU will do, not about whether there should be a single currency the Euro or whether to remain in the EU.  In this sense the European Union is set for the task of regenerating from within. The European Union was itself an experiment that started with the effort to set up the initial arrangements to bring together the economies and political structures of European countries after a disastrous war. It accepted nation states and individual country differences even as it sought an ideal of a united Europe. This means there is room for more ideas and for differences within Europe and the European Union than allowed for by existing structures, politics or ideas. ...

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As Britain goes to general elections in May 2015, one of the issues in the election will be new referendum on membership in the European Union promised by prime minister David Cameron. Cameron has said he will negotiate a better deal for Britain in the EU and hold a referendum by 2017. The last referendum was in 1975, in which two thirds of voters supported membership in the EU. British disapproval of the EU has increased with immigration from newer EU members since the 2008 financial crisis, and increasing unemployment. Some recent polls show 42% voting to stay in the EU, and 39% opting out, suggesting a close vote. Negotiations for better terms mean treaty change, which would be opposed by France. Germany's Merkel also opposes changes on the immigration rules that do not allow free movement of labor. Other EU leaders see Cameron's moves on the EU being an effort to counter the UK Independence Party's push for EU exit, as the UKIP could draw Conservative right wing voters in the 2015 general election. ...

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Mr. Boris Johnson resigns as member of parliament on June 8, 2023, with criticism of the Rishi Sunak Tory government. The Guardian shows the years in office 2019- 2022 of the man who took Britain out of the European Union, and his years in office during the pandemic. From 2016 to 2018 he was Foreign Secretary.  He was preceded by David Cameron of the Conservatives who setup a coalition government in 2010 with austerity policies till 2016, much of whose latter years as prime minister were overshadowed by Mr. Johnson leading the Brexit faction in the party and as Mayor of London. In 2023 with Britain under a cost of living crisis and in financial stress after the austerity years, this period looks like a lost decade for Britain- with the failure of its leaders under the Tories.

 

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Ivan Rogers, Britain's former ambassador to the European Union says ideas about liberation are fantasies, just fantasies. There would be endless negotiation on every issue. After 2 years of negotiations most of the tough questions about Britain's future trading relations with the European Union remain unanswered.

Some just want to get on with the job, including Mrs. May. But the tough questions are not going away as a cross party group in parliament seeks to take control of the process and call for an extension under Article 50 for the March 29 deadline. In addition to the intra party divisions and lack of cooperation from the Labor party, there are doubts in Scotland, Ireland and Northern Ireland about future relations.

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At a time when multilateral financial and other institutions are not working properly on behalf of countries in the Global South, the G20 is seen as the place where the poor countries can find a voice. The African Union was admitted to the G20 nations with the support of India and the US at the New Delhi Summit. Before this the only nation from Africa was South Africa. The other countries are the original G8- US, Canada, Germany, France, European Union, Britain, Italy, Japan. These countries represented the already advanced economies. To these nations were added the newly advanced economies of Russia, South Korea and China, Australia for 11 economies. The 7 rapidly developing nations added are India, Indonesia, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, South Africa.

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British prime minister Theresa May's EU withdrawal agreement was defeated in the House of Commons by a vote of 344 to 286, a margin of 58 votes. 5 Labour MP's voted in favor, and 34 Brexiteer MP's in the European Research Group voted against. The Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland voted against. The vote did not include a declaration on the future relations with the European Union. The vote happened on March 29, the deadline for Britain to leave the EU. A new deadline of April 10 has been set to seek a longer extension.

Options going forward are to use a longer delay of a year to come up with consensus, have a second referendum, or hold a general election. Labour party leader Jeremy Corbyn called for Mrs. May to resign and hold a general election. Britain will hold European parliament elections in May.

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Britain's Labor Party leader makes a speech favoring strong Britain- EU relations in an effort to attract support from pro-EU Conservatives in parliament and bring about early elections. Corbyn says he favors Britain's membership in the EU customs union putting pressure on prime minister Theresa May who favors Britain leaving the EU customs union so it can strike free trade deals on its own. A thin majority in parliament for Theresa May means this issue could lead to a parliamentary defeat and early elections.  The other facet of this is that the delicate peace process in Northern Ireland could be upset by having a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland which is part of the European Union. Irish peace process and the views of the Republic of Ireland and of Scotland would be respected with the Corbyn approach. Other benefits are keeping good trade relations with the EU intact because 44% of Britain's exports go to the EU and 50% of Britain's imports are from the EU. ...

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Half of the 17 percentage points of lower investment in Britain between 2016 and 2023 came from administrative barriers with EU and of Brexit. Britain had deindustrialized and hoped to get growth from so called "clever industries" such as finance, media, and higher education. The Tories party led by Johnson and then Sunak painted a rosy picture for Britain leaving the European Union and doing better without it by working with China and the US and connecting to global supply chains. They ignored the actual facts of the globalization cycle reversing itself leaving Britain exposed in the storm.The slump in investment from Brexit hit Britain hard, the Ukraine war meant higher prices for energy imports from Norway and the US. The result is that only about half percentage point of 2 percent cumulative GDP growth in Britain between 4th qtr 2019 and 4th qtr 2023 came from jobs growth compared to about 3.75% in the EU economies. Eurozone growth at 4% was twice that in UK, and the US with higher productivity and job growth was growing at four times that in UK and twice that in EU at 8% over this period. ...

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Pop and Troinanovski look at the tough negotiations ahead for Brexit and describe Theresa May as a experienced negotiator. Belgian Interior Minister Jambon says she has "a lot of policy knowledge" and moved in the direction of European cooperation. Germany Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich says May has a very clear idea of her objective, uses clear language, and is consistent. Yet much depends on other factors including elections in Germany and France in 2017. For France and Hollande the issue becomes particularly filled with implications with the need not to give the far right and Marie Le Pen any advantage by making concessions in the negotiations. German chancellor Merkel is also very clear from her perspective on migration and free movement in the European Union, a point on which she was tested by other Eastern European countries during the refugee crisis. Merkel made this clear that it was Britain's choice of direction in future relations- "Whoever wants free access to the European single market must in return accept all of the basic freedoms, including the free movement of people." Because of domestic politics in Germany and France and in the rest of the European Union, these negotiations could drag on for a very long time. The only positive sign for both sides is that May is known as a responsible politician after 6 years as Britain's Home Secretary, holding one of the top positions in the cabinet. As Merkel's popularity has recovered with about 55% popular support and the decline in the support for the AfD in recent poll cited by DW.com, Merkel may be prepared for a long negotiation to keep the original idea and spirit of the founders of the European Union alive and strong. ...

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As the deadline of July 22 approaches for the 160,000 members of the UK Conservative Party to elect a leader, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt are running for the leadership position. Boris Johnson has 68% member support with Hunt at 23%, according to YouGov survey. Both candidates are in favor of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement. Hunt has stated he would cancel leave for Britain's 16,000 civil servants in August to prepare for the departure of Britain from the EU by October 31.  Only 27% of Conservative Party members believe Mr. Hunt can do the preparation needed for an abrupt exit after 45 years of economic integration with the European Union. By contrast 90% of members think Johnson would do the preparation needed. Preparation is needed because of food and medical supplies trucks and in flights awaiting customs at border points. The result could be chaotic without adequate preparation. Under a Johnson government many ministers would leave the government including Mr. Hammond who runs the finance ministry. He is expected to join rebel ranks in the Conservative Party that does not think an abrupt exit like this is good for Britain. If these members in the House of Commons join Labour party members they could vote to block this from happening. Britain's opposition Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn has finally decided to call for a second referendum if Johnson pushes to leave the EU abruptly, and to campaign wholeheartedly this time for staying inside the EU. During the last referendum Labour leaders did not push hard for Remain, and David Cameron as prime minister and head of the Conservatives proved to be a weak and ineffective leader using the promise of a referendum as a ploy to win votes for the Conservatives in an earlier election and then finding himself stuck with promises made in the election with his party's right wing led by Johnson. Years of austerity policies promoted by Germany in the EU after a flawed entry of southern European countries with faulty not transparent finances such as Greece too early  into the eurozone had soured Britons on the EU. The friendly migration policies of German leader Merkel for economic as well as war torn country migrants from North Africa finally not just soured Germans on Merkel policies but also soured British working class families struggling to make ends meet and seeing migration as taking British resources that were needed at home. This has split most of Europe including Britain along lines of the major cities and the rural areas plus smaller towns, and in Eastern Europe, East Germany region along the lines of the old Soviet bloc countries which with deeply conservative thinking do not favor such migration policies. These divisive changes have taken place over along period of decades and will take time to heal through economic recovery and a fairer distribution of wealth, better investment in infrastructure, health, education, public services, neglected during the Tech driven flawed investment diversion of economic resources. Yet the hope of this type of change if grasped by Britons as well as Europeans could bring new life and revive the vision of a Europe with shared benefits for all Europeans, not just a French-German project. For this to happen new leaders have to rise to the challenge inside Britain and the rest of Europe.      ...

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French concerns voiced by Macron that Britain should not gain unfair competitive advantage by not adhering to EU environment and other rules after leaving the European Union. Macron's shows willingness to take the blame for failure in Brexit talks because of French demands.

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This editorial in the NYT says it is time for both sides to take a deep breath and agree on extending the deadline of March 29, 2019 for Britain to leave the European Union. More time is needed to work out deep and contentious issues. 

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British prime minister, Boris Johnson, who succeeded Theresa May, is bringing in Dominic Cummings as a key adviser. Cummings ran the campaign for Leave in Britain's 2016 referendum on leaving the European Union. Cummings now joins Johnson in trying to tackle getting Britain out of the EU in 3 months by an October 31, 2019 deadline. Cummings is also the man he will rely on if a general election ensues following its loss of support in parliament. At present there is only a 3 vote majority for Johnson's government in parliament and lack of support from moderates in the ruling Conservative party.

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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One result of the rapprochement of the US and Russia is that Russia has now   agreed to Ukraine joining the European Union. This is part of the Ukraine/EU Peace Plan put forward by Ukraine, with Ukraine calling for aset date to join the EU. Ukraine has proposed a demilitarized zone in the eastern region that would put eastern Donetsk in the demilitarized zone including also parts of Russian occupied eastern Ukraine. This is a major step in the right direction so that the Ukraine issue can be settled. Germany meantime is leading the effort to build its arms industry to counter Russia and Germany, France, Britain are joining together to counter Russia as the US pulls back under the DJT administration to asserting itself in the Western Hemisphere with the Monroe Doctrine to fight the drug trafficking gangs in Venezuela and Mexico and pother parts of the western hemisphere. The Monroe Doctrine was possible in 1823 till 1960 with the full support of Britain. It is now possible with the cooperation of Russia as Russia is accepted as a dominant power in Northern Europe, a goal set by Russia under Putin.  ...

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People in the Midlands and poorer regions of Britain think it is the European Union's fault that the regions are lagging behind. They voted for Leave with this perception though as experts point out closing down of plants in the region as in Sunderland could hurt employment.