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Temperatures not seen or ever recorded by weather monitoring systems of 126 degrees Fahrenheit in New Delhi, India's capital May 30, 2024. This is 52.3 degrees Centigrade, with dangerous sweltering heat across all of northern India. Delhi's Lt. Governor called for paid leave for Delhi construction workers for 1-3 pm. Election rallies in India's general election drawing huge crowds even in such sweltering heat shows the impatience of the population of over 1 billion people with corruption and poor governance in some states and the efforts by prime minister Modi to ensure good governance and large investments for modernization of the Indian economy in infrastructure and transportation, logistics and manufacturing. It may be astounding to realize that voting still reached 68-71% of eligible voters in such weather conditions. India is the fastest growing economy in the world and now a beacon of progress in the middle of stalled efforts throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America following the pandemic, yet it too faces challenges from climate change just as severe as in the rest of the world with heat waves, floods and wildfires. ...

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A revolution is taking place in the lives of rural families in India. Under the Jal Jeevan Mission put forward by the prime minister clean drinking water from tap water will reach every family in India. It was launched on Aug 15, 2019 and plans to do this by 2024. The impact is huge. Out of 180 million rural families only 33 million families have clean drinking water from tap water in the country. Clean water brings life to the countryside and access through individual tap water connection brings a revolution to people's lives in a country of 1.2 billion people. This report in the Economic Times tells us what most of us do not know that with the growth in population from about 300 million after independence in 1947 to 1.2 billion today and the drought conditions in parts of the country, the per capita water availability has fallen sharply today. Dropping from 5000 cubic metres of water per capita in India in 1951 to 1545 cubic metres of water in 2011.  The infrastructure capital to be invested is 3.5 trillion rupees or $ 50 billion. $50 billion in cement, pipes, construction, pumps, equipment, wages, conservation, skill building, knowledge in water management to revive the rural economy. Hit hard by coronavirus it boosts the rural economy. The infrastructure project could be a model for other Asian, African and Latin American countries.  Cholera and other water borne diseases can never be eliminated without clean drinking water from tap water for all families in India. It means so much during this pandemic.  ...

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Sardesai gives reasons for the collapse of the BJP alliance with PDP in Kashmir. He says the differences were too great between Jammu and Kashmir regions of the state and they were never bridged at the local level. The hope created by the 2014 election in Kashmir have diminished from a lack of effort on both sides. As the violence escalated in the state and with approaching elections nationwide in India in 2019, the BJP decided it would be better positioned for the election not being part of a failing government in Kashmir.

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In the meeting in the Oval Office Biden and Modi had this to say about India US relations. Modi called it a "transformative" decade. Mr. Biden called it a "new chapter" in ties, taking on tough challenges in coronavirus vaccines for the rest of Asia outside India and China, tackling climate change, and ensuring rule of law in the Indo-Pacific region.  Biden's view- "I think that the relationship between India and the US, two of the largest democracies in the world, is destined to be stronger, closer, tighter, and I think it can benefit the whole world." A look at the US under the Biden administration shows a US that is very different from that of the US in the period of presidents since Harry Truman when he met Jawaharlal Nehru at the White House in October 1949. Biden sees the US needing renewal of its infrastructure, reviving worker incomes and families, regaining its leadership of the free world, for its role and place in the world. Throughout the period 1949 to 2020 for 70 years India was never seen as a modernizing nation of 1.2 billion people. For most of this period it lacked the good governance and speedy implementation of modernization of economy that is essential for a truly good relationship. By releasing the potential of the younger generation in a country where people under 35 years form the major part of the population, with good governance and development agenda, the Indian prime minister has changed the entire dynamics of the India US relationship. This is happening in the way China had done in its relationship with the US after 2000 by modernizing the country. India is now the country with huge potential and the country the US sees as helping it build its own role and place in the world. The sheer size of India and its population with countries around it in the east such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam with shared values in south and southeast Asia bring together a population of close to 2 billion people much larger than China, to determine the direction of Asia.  This is the new chapter that president Biden has in mind, and it is also the "transformative decade" in the eyes of prime minister Modi as India finally puts behind it years of bad governance, and speeds up modernizing its economy.   ...

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"Ram Rajya" is a concept of a just society that serves the needs of the people based on the ancient history and ancient paths of Bharat or India. It is easily understood among the farmers and ordinary people of India. During the long period of colonialism it meant to Gandhi and hundreds of millions in the villages of India a sense of society free of colonialism and colonial rule that did not invest in the country or its people, no matter their religion or caste or language group. In this sense Ram Rajya is all about a just society of governance that meets the needs of all the people, that makes investment in the resources of the country to the benefit of the people. In the modern period in the transformation of rural societies such as China or India or other parts of Asia, Ram Rajya or Buddha Rajya as an extension of the same concept, and about what Abraham Lincoln called society for the people, of the people, by the people, in his call to America for a Just Society. In this sense it has connotations for the world as it struggles to build a style of governance in society that builds the infrastructure, invests in the education and minds of the people, in their health and wellbeing along all dimensions. In this way it is a social concept that is embodied in the best of human society throughout history. It embodies the aspirations of the people of Asia to modernity inspired by ancient tradition, aspirations to science and technology and building modern societies. Of India with Ram and the Buddha, China in its connections to the Buddha, to the people of Indonesia with the connection to Hanuman, and the people in South East Asia and Japan through their connections to the Buddha which were embedded in the ancient society of Ram and the Upanishads in the land south of the Himalayas. No one is too small, no effort is ordinary or small- "I am very small, I am very ordinary, if someone thinks so one must remember the contribution of the squirrel. Remmbering the ocntribution of the squirrel will dispel our hesitation, and teach us that every effort big or small, has its strength and contribution. The foundation of Sabka Prayas (everyone's efforts) will be the foundation of a divine, and capable, just and good Bharat or India for all its 1400 million people."   ...

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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This WSJ report looks at the work of Alexei Miller as head of Gazprom which supplies Russian natural gas through the Nordstream pipeline to Europe. Mr. Miller is shown to have put too much reliance on the European market which is now shrinking with the European decision to cut dependence on Russian gas. compared to alternative markets in China Russia has invested too little in pipelines to other regions in Asia. He has also not invested in LNG which could be shipped to China and other countries leaving Russia too dependent on pipelines that run mostly to Europe such as Nordstream 1 and 2.  Russia was sending 160 billion cubic metres of natural gas to Europe and only 11 billion cubic metres to China in 2021. A major shift requires much new infrastructure. Miller also did not grasp how shale oil and gas would boom in the US. Mr. Miller started as a 39 year old economics PhD in 2001 when Putin made him head of Gazprom. Both had worked together in St Petersburg local government, and Miller was Deputy Energy Minister for 1 year, briefly head of a pipeline system to the Gulf of Finland. ...

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The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade pact led by Japan and the U.S. moves to the next stage with legislation introduced by Orrin Hatch and Ron Wyden in the U.S. Congress for granting trade promotion authority to the U.S. president. This would facilitate the negotiation of an agreement leading to concessions by different countries. Talks between Japan and the U.S. intensified with the U.S. president Obama saying in his 2015 State of the Union message that China wanted to write the rules for trade in Asia, and asking why the U.S. should not work to write its own rules. Defense Secretary, Aston Carter, called it more important than another aircraft carrier. Support from Europe, India and other countries for the China sponsored Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as a rival to the U.S. dominated World Bank and IMF, also give urgency to the TPP. The TPP countries, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Peru and Chile, make up over $400 billion of about $4 trillion in U.S. trade, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The TPP is now seen not just a free trade pact, but also as away to counter China's influence in Asia. Experts see the Obama administration as having bungled its handling of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which the U.S. did not join, and its allies in Europe, other Asian countries including India, decided to join as founding members. Democrats in Congress led by Senator Schumer, Warren, oppose the legislation granting fast track for free trade pacts citing the loss of jobs and lowering of wages for workers in manufacturing in the U.S., with only about a dozen Democrats favoring the legislation, leading to a split in the party. Projections by Peter Petri, Michael Plummer, Fan Zhai, of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, show a net negative impact on depressed wage sectors such as U.S. manufacturing with additional $45 billion in U.S. imports and $35 billion in exports for heavy manufacturing from the TPP free trade pact, and additional $33 billion of U.S. imports and $10 billion exports in light manufacturing by 2025. Higher wage sectors such as U.S. Services including IT get a boost with additional $42 billion in exports and $ 8 billion imports. Agriculture shows insignificant gains with additional exports of $2 billion and imports of 0.5 billion. The auto and transport sector disproportionately favors Japan with $33 billion in additional U.S. imports and $8 billion in exports. ...

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Problems facing India as it searches for a way to modernize the country, build infrastructure, and create strong jobs growth. Glaring weaknesses are evident in a number of areas which have not been addressed: a weak public education system, food poverty for people at the lower end worsening with today's 10% food inflation, child malnutrition, weak infrastructure building capabilities, growth in services but not enough in manufacturing to create jobs, a growing black economy, and a general acceptance of illegal behaviour that has increased with the increase in opportunities for corruption and bribes in a growing economy. The political governance is weak. The dependence on smaller regional parties in ruling coalition governments weakens initiative at the federal government level. The general lack of new political leadership, and the failure to develop new leaders in the Congress party because of the six decades long presence of the Nehru family. Some striking facts- the role of the black or underground economy has actually increased over the years. Arun Kumar, chairman of the Center for Economc Studies and Planning at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi, says his estimates show it was 40% of GDP by 1996, and 50% by 2006. This means more business activity evades direct taxes, and less money is available for investments in education, infrastructure and healthcare. It also indicates a widespread tolerance of illegal activity and corruption. The other striking facts are that the calorie consumption by the bottom of the 50% of the population has been declining since 1987, according to a 2009-10 economic survey by India's Ministry of Finance. The modernization of the country appears not to be following the path taken in East Asia- by Japan, S. Korea and now China- where people moved in large migrations from farms and rural areas to cities and manufacturing jobs, resulting in gradual urbanization. Manufacturing in India is only 16% of GDP in 2009, the same as in 1991, according to the World Bank. Certain regions are doing better than others- Gujarat and the Punjab in the north, Tamilnadu, Karnataka in the south- with large population areas in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar lagging behind badly. ...

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Turkish American MIT economist is awarded the Nobel Prize- but not for the work he needs recognition for the renewal of America and US Way Forward. Daron Acemoglu's work is important not just for a new look at countries that experienced colonialism noted by the Nobel folks in Stockholm. Much of his recent work on "Why Nations Fail," and "The Narrow Corridor," cover the United States and why it is important that US policies keep the goal of "We the People" uppermost. George Washington reminded America to be wary of the  "absurd notion that the many are made for the few," in his Draft of the Inaugural Address in 1789. In this sense the Nobel committee and much of the economics profession is far behind the times as the focus has shifted to how countries that were once known as developed have neglected rebuilding their industrial base, neglected their infrastructure modernization investments, and neglected workers and families connected with it, that are the foundations of progress and a better life. This is also an issue in 2024 for the right Way Forward for the US, and for nations in Europe, Asia and the rest of the world. ...

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How Ratan Tata's vision of a small car for 1 lakh rupees or about $2500 for the Indian market may change the way the world looks at and buys cars. Note that the Indian car market is expected to become the fastest growing car market by 2013 at 14.5% compared to 8% in China according to estimates by CSM Worldwide. In 2008 Tata will come up with its new 1 lakh rupee car. What Tata's vision has done is challenge the world's leading car makers to come with versions of a small car for the Indian market of their own, with Renault-Nissan, Hyundai and VW and Honda all taking up the challengein the days and years ahead. This is also a challenge for Indian infrastructure, and for the road system in all of South Asia from Sri Lanka to all the way up the South Asian subcontinent to Pakistan and Afghanistan. It will also bring about greater integration of the whole region and create the conditions for significant economic development.

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This report from Taiwan in DW.com points out that German opinion has changed significantly in recent years and is not reflected in Merkel policies. With a change in government to Greens, SPD coalition under Scholz of the SPD and Annalena Baerbock of Greens, German policy towards Taiwan is likely to change. Scholz is seen as having different views from Merkel and is likely to reflect public opinion more closely which is reflected in polls that show 58% of Germans not in favor of Merkel's China policy which moves away from the US. Germany also needs to consider NATO alliance and relationship with US which will be difficult with Merkel policies now that president Biden has made Indo-Pacific  with Aukus and Quad alliances critical to his administration. France has moved closer to India, which will mean pressures from the US and France and German public opinion for Scholz to  come closer to US and France in his policies. A sense that the Merkel period had serious issues and was "grotesquely" backward in childcare, education, digital modernization, infrastructure, climate change, as one German expert puts it, also will make SPD and Greens reconsider Merkel's policies.  After the election there could be a fuller reassessment of the Merkel years and further change in German public opinion as Germans see how much was lost in the later Merkel years in the lack of much needed change inside Germany in addressing the social and economic problems. Merkel may also be seen as having a sensitive relationship with the Biden administration which the SPD and Greens in their different orientation may not see in the same way. Biden's families and workers plan has much that Germans are looking for from the SPD and the Greens and on a scale of $3.5 trillion that the SPD and Greens may see as changing everything.  Population of India combined with South East Asia, Australia and Japan is also about twice that of China, which Germany will feel sets the path for a new policy that reflects a different Europe and a different Asia for the future. ...

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Goldman Sachs Group is in negotiations with the U.S. government to admit responsibility for its role in the 1MDB corruption scandal in Malaysia and pay a $2 billion fine. The WSJ reports that Goldman raised $6.5 billion for 1MDB, or 1Malaysia Development BhD. Money raised was intended to be used for development and infrastructure in Malaysia. WSJ points out that it was misused by Malaysian government advisors under the government of Mr. Najib Razak, and 2 Goldman bankers. Goldman pursued $600 million in fees and ignored red flags that this misuse of funds was happening. Malaysia's newly elected government of Mr. Mahathir Mohammed is trying to clear up the mess of the previous government of Mr. Najib Razak, and has charged Goldman in a separate criminal investigation including 17 former and current employees of Goldman offices in Asia. Mr. Mahathir Mohammed came to power on an anti-corruption platform. The WSJ was the first to look into problems at the development fund, which it has continued to do for many years, helping Malaysia redirect development finances for growth. ...

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This very exceptional report from the city of Recife in Brazil's northeastern state of Pernambuco, comes from WSJ reporters Johnson and Jelmayer. It is about the physicians Vanessa van der Linden Mota, and Ana van der Linden Mota, her mother, who first alerted health authorites in Pernambuco about the cases of encephaly and the links to the mosquito Zika Virus in Recife, Brazil. From 147 recorded encephaly cases, and babies born with shrunken skulls or calcified brain structure in 2014 in Brazil, the cases reported jumped to 4,180 suspected cases. Estimates of cases by 2020 for such cases run up to 50,000 to 100,000 if the problem is not tackled. The family of the van der lindens come from Dutch-German immigrants settled in northeastern Brazil, a less developed region of the country. The family is unique with five doctors including neuro pediatricians Ana and Vanessa working in public hospitals in Recife , and father Helio a neuro surgeon. The entire state of Pernambuco has a total of 15 neuropediatricians, according to this report. The Ebola Virus emerged in countries such as Sierra Leone and Liberia which suffered from war and neglect of health infrastructure. Here in Pernambuco state, as reporters Johnson and Jelmayer point out, the problem stems from neglect in public health infrastructure, especially sanitation and drinking water for shantytown dwellers and vast majority of poor residents in a city of 3.5 million, typical of developing countries in Latin America and South Asia, where development in some parts of the country have lagged far behind, and where needed public health infrastructure investments have not been made. Lack of dependable drinking water means collecting water in containers that are susceptible to breeding mosquitoes, such as the mosquitoes carrying the Zika Virus. A public debate on the lack of attention by socialist and worker's party led governments to this type of infrastructure and transportation services was already underway in Brazil leading to widespread protests in 2013. A $226 million investment in a soccer stadium in Recife, and similar investments in other smaller cities in the northeast were made under the Worker's Party government. Large investments for the Olympics now come as the economy contracted in 2015, and Brazil is hurt by another boom-bust cycle with the slowdown in China- with fiscal austerity policies, a loss of a third in the value of its currency, and the popularity rating of the newly elected government from the Worker's Party in single digits....

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Sadanand Dhume points out the change in women's fertility rate that will add one more factor to improvement in the quality of life and access to resources in India. This comes as development projects, infrastructure, logistics, is being built in the north at a pace unprecedented in history. Women's fertility rate has dropped below the replacement rate of 2.1 in India. Because of the youthful population with median age of 28 in India population will peak at 1.6 billion in 2050 making India the largest country by population in the world- with one in 6 people on the planet in India. From a fertility rate of 6 in 1960 in India, with each woman having 6 babies, it is down to 3 by 2005 and 2 in 2021. This shows the effect of sustained development over time, which is also evident in agricultural production where India is now self sufficient in food. For many years the Hindi speaking heartland suffered from poor governance and mismanagement of the economy- the region that covers Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 250 million, Bihar 131 million and Madhya Pradesh 86 million, for a total of 467 million about the size of North America or the European Union. It is this region that is now pushing a development agenda today more than any other region in India with the joint effort of both the federal and state, local, governments in a way that is unprecedented in Indian history. Because of the Gati Shakti Master Plan, Atman Nirbhar Make in India Plan, and push for local is vocal, the infrastructure efforts in building roads, highways, airports and logistics, the advances in digitization and use of new technologies, there is an added boost with new synergies in this development effort. A new airport and logistics setup at Noida in Uttar Pradesh will be the largest in Asia, a new Ganga Expressway is planned, and many development projects are being launched in Varanasi, Prayagraj and other cities in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh. Leaders at the federal level Mr. Modi, Mr. Piyush Goyal, and at the state level Mr. Adityanath, are pushing the development projects at a pace that will make these areas the fastest developing in India, and quite possibly the world, in a the next 3-5 years. ...

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Citigroup's CEO Pandit sees growth in its Asian and Latin American businesses in 2012-2013. He cited growing investment in infrastructure and the needs of middle class customers in these countries.

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Gerald Seib in the WSJ gives 3 reasons for reluctance of president Trump to get involved in wars in the region on behalf of the Saudis- the U.S. is less dependent on Saudi oil with its increased oil production, China, South Korea and Japan depend on Saudi oil making it necessary for these countries to pay for the conflicts not the U.S. Other reasons are the U.S and Mr. Trump's opposition to endless wars that lead to neglecting U.S. priorities such as infrastructure and building its economy.  If the wars cost trillions of dollars the U.S. expects the Saudis or Asian countries to pay the U.S. for the cost of these wars. Japan is the most dependent on Saudi oil and it is playing a constructive role to reduce tensions between Iran and the U.S. Mr. Macron of France is playing a role because the EUropean Union also imports oil and wants to prevent the Iran nuclear deal from being ditched or at least for it to be renegotiated.

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How the expression "owning the libs" found its way into the current vocabulary and its meaning today. Seen as it relates to the Republican party and choices of some sections of the party to overemphasize the importance of so called culture wars on the difference of opinion about abortion and women, immigration, diversity. This happens in the context of the larger issues of national importance of national character, America's leadership in the world, America's position in science and technology in the world, American education, fighting climate change and rebuilding the nation's infrastructure. After the Ukraine war, differences with China, and the reorganization of America's supply chain in the world reducing concentration in China, creating new opportunities for America in science and technology leadership, a new attitude is taking hold. One that deemphasizes this type of "owning the libs" discourse that leads nowhere in rebuilding America to rebuilding America and also its European and Asian allies to prepare for a better, hope filled future. ...

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Brian Deese and other economists remind us that the government is still not able to negotiate the prices of drugs with pharmaceutical companies something that government was instructed not to do under a Republican administration with a George W. Bush administration rule that has hurt millions of Americans since 2003. In fact December 3, 2003 may be a day of ignominy for Americans who face high cost of pharmaceutical drugs, and actions that send money from the pockets of government that would go into fixing aging infrastructure, and from pockets of ordinary Americans that would go into meeting the cost of living to improve ease of living. President Biden without the needed majorities in Congress was able to only specify certain drugs on which negotiation could take place. There is a need to cut pharmaceutical costs for the American public, there is a need to be like everybody else in the community of nations in Europe and Asia that pay only so much for pharmaceuticals not many times more. Making the US worse off than Indians and Chinese who can access these drugs and find it affordable for most of the people of 3 billion in these countries. The contrast makes one question what is a developed and a developing country as what has happened in the last 3 decades in America has turned this  question on its head- with irresponsible presidents and irresponsible Congress. ...

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After sanctions were lifted in 2016 on Iran India and China increased oil imports from Iran. China and India ramped up imports each country importing 900,000 barrels of oil per day in 2016. Since then China has reduced imports from Iran to 500,000 and India has reduced imports to 600,000 in anticipation of possible sanctions. India received a limited waiver from sanctions for oil paid in rupees before sanctions were lifted. 

Chinese officials say alternatives for importing oil are available, and that it is more concerned about the price of oil.

Oil prices affect development because as in the case of Indonesia and India reduced oil subsidies and savings can be diverted into infrastructure development in Asian countries. The recent surge in the price of oil adds to the pressure on budgets and fiscal deficits in developing countries.