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This WSJ report shows how the debt ceiling negotiation were conducted and the process that made it possible to reach an agreement since the State of the Union address by president Biden on February 7, 2023. It started with Biden getting unanimity right on the floor of Congress during his speech about protecting Medicare and Social Security. The Republican strategy was to pass the legislation on spending that did not specify where cuts were to be made yet used 2022 spending levels with a 1% increase. The deal was to be for three years and passed the spending bill with an increase inthe debt ceiling. Till that time the Democrats decided to not enter negotiations.  Biden and McCarthy then had to choose who would represent their side in the long negotiation process that lay ahead till June 5. Progressive Democrats called for invoking the 14th Amendment that allows the government to continue functioning and pay its bills. Biden chose not to take that route. Respect for the other side, a prepared script are an important point in negotiations. To get results something even more important is essential flexibility and a plan, Plan B. Trust began to develop between McCarthy and Biden. Biden and McCarthy did not any time engage in acrimonious description of the other side. At one point when Biden was in Hiroshima for the G7 meetings Ricchetti on the Biden side and Graves on the Republican side began to feel the frustration. Biden decided to fly home early from Hiroshima. He was constantly in touch with his negotiators Steve Ricchetti, a trusted aide, and a cabinet official the Budget Director Shalanda Young. Graves a long time trusted adviser of McCarthy headed the negotiations for McCarthy.  Shalanda Young and Garrett Graves are both from Louisiana and Graves says he used to work out with Young's dad in the same area. This had a positive effect. It also reduced the tensions in the negotiations so that it could be said this was the calmest negotiation from either side that has been seen in the US  for a long time and bodes well for America's future and for its people, far beyond any concessions made by either party.  Biden made clear at the outset what he could accept without leaving it hidden- he would agree to some work requirements, he would not agree to work requirements for Medicaid. Others in the Democratic party conveyed how distraught they were with efforts to impose stringent requirements for federal food aid during a cost of living crisis when the Republican positions ruled out any new taxes on the wealthiest Americans. In the end Republicans agreed to keep spending limits for 2023 for two more years into 2025 when they would be increased by 1%. Democrats offered to cut (Income Tax) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) spending to increase IRS staffing from $80 billion to $70 billion. Biden said "nobody got everything they wanted." It would have to be passed in Congress with the support of moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, with members holding extreme positions among Republicans and Democrats opposing. The two parties coming together after a long time to meet the real challenges ahead for the American people. ...

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Dan Osborn is a union leader who led the strike at Kellogg Omaha plant in 2021. He is running for the US Senate seat in Nebraska which is conservative and Republican. He is shown here campaigning with Shawn Fain of the UAW autoworkers union at his side.

Osborn says he does not see Republican or Democrat or any color just a fair fight for fair wages for workers.

Osborn says-

“I didn’t see men or women or black or white or Republican or Democrat on the picket line. I just saw people that wanted to go to work for a fair wage and some good benefits.”  

This is what 2024 is also turning into in the US a fight for wages and for managing the cost of living in ways that bring a better life for workers and their families after years of neglect.

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A look at how Germany voted on a map of Germany gives a better idea of what really happened in the 2021 election. The narrow margin of about 2% of Social Democrats over Christian Democrats looks different from the map. The CDU black color region is mostly all of southern Germany, the region includes Bavaria with its capital Munich. And parts of West Germany around Cologne.

In Cologne and Berlin the Greens dominated.

The rest of Germany is all Social Democrats red. Only in parts of the  east in Saxony and Thuringia one finds AfD far right.

Geographically SPD red is all over Germany except for the southern region of Bavaria. A seat Merkel held for 30 years went to the Social Democrats SPD party,

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NPR showed this report on December 2, 2022, which pertains to the debt ceiling vote. About a third of Republican pickups in the Congressional elections came from an unexpected place New York state. These moderates 4 from Long Island alone, come from districts where Democrats are a majority and they risk being defeated if they are not careful to let extreme Republicans get their way in a way that offends New York's voters. This has relevance today because 213 Democrats in the House have signed a petition to force a vote in the House. Five moderate Republicans are all it would take to get the 218 votes to pass lifting the debt ceiling.

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Elections are won on messages that can be put in one line. FDR's in 1932 he stated clearly and applies to Biden in 2024- it has Abraham Lincoln's message from his writings. FDR said in 1932 "Give me your help not to win votes alone, but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." America in 2024 during the pandemic resembles America in 1932 during the Depression with widening gaps between the upper and lower classes and in opportunity for better life. Philip Bump in his Analysis in the Washington Post points out that the 2024 US election remains a referendum on the former president Trump. This is because as is already evident the voters have made up their minds, on Biden's side people that have decided they will not vote for Trump, and on Trump's side people who will vote for Trump. Biden has a stable vote when the election is referendum on Trump. Crime has come down so that crime is not so much of an issue. Immigration is also coming down and the Lankford- Biden immigration legislation did not pass to close the border as it was seen not attractive for the reelection bid on basis of immigration fears from the former president. Biden has take steps to close the border using executive action in the absence of Congress stalling on advice of the former president. The other issue is abortion and the selection of J.D. Vance for VP creates more fears about abortion bans for suburban women in all 51 states. Climate Change action is another issue and if stalled for 4 years it would cost the US upward of 1 trillion dollars to make up for action not taken till 2028. Donilon has said elections are fought on issues that can be put in one line for focus and concentration. For Democrats it is democracy in the words of FDR in his 1932 address: "Give me your help not to win votes alone but to win in this crusade to restore America to its own people." It is good to reflect and know that this is what president Abraham Lincoln would also have said knowing Lincoln's views from his writings on the this aspect of freedom in the Civil War in fighting the plantation economies of the Southern states. ...

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Finland joins other Nordic countries such as Denmark in reducing immigration with a new coalition government in June 2023. It brings the Finns party together with Christian Democrats, National Coalition and the Swedish People's Party.

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With Democrats emboldened by winning governor races in NJ and Virginia government shutdown on issue of ACA subsidies continues on November 8 2025. Speaker Johnson refusal to commit to holding a vote in the Senate on ACA subsidies means negotiated compromise cannot be made on a future vote for ACA subsidies so that the government funding takes place.

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WSJ looks at how the relationship between Joe Biden and Kamala Harris evolved. From the faltering start when Harris was contesting for the presidential nomination and made sharp debate comments on segregationist senators and Biden, to her entry into the White House as Vice President dissolving her political action committees and not bringing her election people to the White House. The first assignment was on immigration and the White House asking Harris to tell Central Americans not to come to the US border did not exactly work out. Guatemala was in the middle of a drought affecting its agriculture and sending more people from the affected regions to the US Border. That message did not work and Harris came under criticism. There was less contact with Biden during the years 2020 and 2021 because of the pandemic.   Gradually though the president came to listen to Harris and set up a weekly lunch meeting. When Supreme Court nominations were to be made Biden relied on Harris's advice. Ketanji Jackson nomination to the Supreme Court came out of these talks with Harris. Then came Roe and Wade and the president who was not outspoken on this issue realized that Harris was better at communicating a common vision of what America stood for and the importance of reproductive freedoms. When Hamas attacked Israel, the response of Netanyahu was leading to an humanitarian disaster. President Biden listened to Harris describe the need for a Palestinian state and it building peace with Israel as the only real solution to the crisis. Biden sent Harris three times to the Munich Security Conference, and each year she met Mr. Zelensky and discussed the Ukraine issues with European leaders. Then came the debate performance and Democrats questioning Biden's health. Harris remained steadfast in her support till the end and on July 23 after announcing his withdrawal the previous day Biden told Kamala as he addressed Wilmington headquarters staff- "I'm watching you kid. I love ya." And Harris said "I love you." ...

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German chancellor Merkel is interviewed by DW.com's Max Hofmann as her 16 year period as Germany's leader comes to a close. She discusses immigration to Germany, climate change and other issues. Not discussed are the issues of neglect of infrastructure and failure in preserving upward mobility in Germany society during that period. She is described as a "compromise machine," which she refutes by saying "I'm not a machine, of course, but... a human being." Through compromise she was able to extend the Christian Democrats hold on power for this long. Yet for much of the time she kept the Social Democrats, who were lacking in conviction at the time for real upward mobility, out of power; by compromises that meant she would do just so much not enough on social values. In the end her party the CDU fell to a low of about 22% support of Germans in the 2021 election. The Greens with more conviction and the Social Democrats surpassed the CDU under Baerbock and vice chancellor Scholz. Her achievements came reluctantly in the end in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. This time she put all her convictions and support behind the German and European Union financial package for trillions of euros of support that would enable Europe to get back on its feet after the pandemic's devastation. This may be her singular achievement, long after everything else is forgotten. Yet not one word of this interview talks about this achievement made with the full conviction of both Scholz and Merkel. Scholz and Baerbock will lead a new Social Democrat+ Greens coalition that will finally rebuild Germany along new lines on pillars of social mobility, infrastructure building, and climate change action for the New Germany. Baerbock is just 40 years, and Germany now moves to be run by a new generation so unlike the last in conviction and vision, and more in line with the vision and aspirations after World War II. With both Willy Brandt's vision of the Social Democrats, and the vision of Konrad Adenauer of the Christian Democrats, now carried forward with the help of the Greens Baerbock and the young generation of Germans. ...

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This article in the Los Angeles Times "Shifting tides for Obama in 2012" puts things in perspective for the situation Biden faces in the 2024 campaign.  The LA Times points out in its report by David Lauter October 30, 2011, that among white working class voters the defeat Obama experienced in 2008 will turn into a rout in 2012. It says the rising racial diversity and increase in college graduates were only two factors helping Obama and this also was in doubt in 2012. The 2009 financial crisis had led to high unemployment and poverty among Hispanic households and also affected black people. The soured economy put Obama at risk in 2012. The rout among white working class voters for Obama in 2012 turned into a complete rout for Clinton in 2016. The Obama coalition looks like a one time affair and an aberration in America where white non college graduates almost all vote Republican. By putting white working class and factory voters firmly in the Democrats camp as they were for the last century and building a strong economy and manufacturing Biden now brings back the America of TR, Wilson, FDR, Truman and Eisenhower. By putting the struggle to improve the lives of working people at the heart of the democratic process Biden is rebuilding the America that transformed a less developed agricultural nation into a modern industrial economy. ...

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Some Republicans in the three WOW suburbs around Milwaukee, Wisconsin- Waukesha Ozaukee and Washington counties- are shifting towards Democrats. This swing was clearly seen across the US in votes for Nikki Haley even after the Republican candidate withdrew in the contest with Trump. Abortion, democracy, and the erosion of the "big tent" are issues for women and college educated young people. In the past Democrats were dominant in Milwaukee and Madison and Republicans in the suburbs. This is changing in 2024 as the suburbs are being contested.

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The battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the North have 83% white voters in a national election compared to 69% nationwide. It is with white voters that Mr. Biden is doing better and according to three sets of data, and this could make it possible for Mr. Biden to win these states again in 2024. In Georgia and Arizona nonwhite vote remains sturdy for Biden, while the states are moving leftward, and this could tilt these states towards Biden, says this report. Biden is losing some support among nonwhite voters but this is happening in states such as New York where Democrats would have a smaller margin in their win. These changes are observed by taking into account the 2020 national and midterms results and combining them with insights from NYT/Siena polls in recent months.

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Public opinion in Germany now senses that politicians including Angela Merkel are reluctant to tell Germans that debt reduction has to be part of the solution for Greece, that some of the billions are lost and never coming back. They sense that Merkel and the Christian Democrats are waiting till after the elections in 2013 to bring this up directly. Even people on the street in Berlin know that Greece can never get back on its feet on the basis of spending cuts without debt reduction. The loan instalment approved in Nov. 2012 reflects the new approach of debt reduction but the German government is reluctant to talk about it. Opposition parliamentary leader Frank-Walter Steinmeier of the Social Democrats told ZDF German television: "The debt cut has not been avoided, it has been postponed to a time after the parliamentary elections. We are realistic and try to tell the people honestly and sincerely whats going on. Schauble and the present government try once more to finagle their way around the truth." Greece's debt has already reached 170% of GDP and can only go up as the economy shrinks further in year after year of recession. Norbert Barthle, a senior Christian Democrat, says if the debt reduction takes place today it sends the wrong signal to all the program countries, reducing the pressure for reforms and changes....

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This report in The Guardian explains what a split Congress means in the US as the Republicans control the House and Democrats control the Senate in the midterms of 2022. This means legislative logjam says The Guardian.  The narrow majority also means there will be difficulty for the Republican Speaker to control the House with 3 newcomers from New York and others as moderates, and a mix of views within Republicans.

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The role of Merz and Leyen of the CDU is bigger than is grasped in the trade deal with India and the change that Germany has made in shifting the gaze and engagement of the European community towards the 1.4 billion people of India for a new start after the disappointment of the relationship with China from the Merkel years. Merkel completely failed to understand China its history, and Asia and its history. India as the homeland of Buddhism is the source of the spiritual culture of China and Japan, Korea and Vietnam. The intervening period of invasions from north in the 15th to 17th century and British rule and the European early shift to science and industry in the 18th to 20th century has acted as a hazy atmosphere that clouds many perceptions of how Indian, Chinese, and Japanese history has evolved.  For Merkel there was the additional layer of misperceptions from the period growing up the GDR, or Communist East Germany in Soviet influence. This is why Merz completely fit into the Kite festival mood and atmosphere on the banks of the Sabarmati in Ahmedabad and at the Sabarmati Ashram of Gandhi in January 2026. Leyen also of the Christian Democrats could grasp the fact that German philosopher Schlegel translated the Bhagavad Gita from Sanskrit into German soon after Charles Wilkins did this in 1724. People to people ties have great potential to develop between Europe and India now that the engagement is set for the next 20 years at every level by Leyen, Merz and Modi, so that the world is completely transformed in ways that can never be imagined today.  ...

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The Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific aid bills are passed in the House of Representatives with 316-94 vote on April 19, 2024. Vote rule set with support of Democrats made a simple majority vote sufficient to  pass. It was a significant win for both parties as 165 Democrats and 151 Republicans voted for the bills. 55 Republicans and 39 Democrats voted against. It was as Speaker Johnson had said earlier for each Congressman to vote his conscience. Speaker Johnson said it was the best possible bill "we could get under the circumstances." He said if this wasn't done then Democrats would have bypassed Republican leaders and forced their own package of bills through the House. As a nod to the former president $60 billion in aid to Ukraine has $9.5 billion in forgivable economic loans. Overall similar to what Democrats had passed in the Senate over a month earlier. “I hope at the end we can take care of our responsibilities. Ukrainians desperately need lethal aid right now. I mean we can’t allow Vladimir Putin to roll through another country.” - Mike Johnson, Speaker ...

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The nearly unanimous support for president Trump in the impeachment inquiry from Republicans in Congress is a result of strong consistent support from a loyal base, strong fund raising in competitive races for members of Congress who supported Trump, and the sense that the whole process was flawed and part of partisan politics. There was also a sense among members of Congress in the House and Senate that the actions in Ukraine did not rise to the level of impeachable offense.  Throughout the process from the beginning Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence, Mr. McCarthy minority leader in the House and Mr. McConnell majority leader in the Senate stayed engaged with individual members keeping together a tight knit community of legislators. As a result unprecedented action was seen in 2019-2020 with every single Democrat voting for impeachment and every single Republican voting against, and prominent members of each side showing outrage at events or how the proceedings were conducted. Each side even seeing the impeachment inquiry as a strategic step towards the presidential election in 2020. Democrats looking for some slight advantage in the midwestern states that moved the election to Trump the last time. Republicans seeing this as a way to rally the base, play to Mr. Trump's strengths in persuasion, and to vigorously defend the economic achievements in international trade agreements and the economy. ...

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Simply put the party that makes the best case for the economy and for a better future consistently and constantly will prevail as at the end of the day white, black, rural and urban voters will be listening carefully. The cost of living, immigration, the economy, are major issues in 2024. Nate Cohn of the NYT looks at the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms and polling for 2024. He says Republicans are doing better in states they did well in the midterms in 2022. Nationally they are doing as well as in the midterms making gains in noncompetitive blue states such as New York and California where there is less impact of Roe vs Wade abortion rights and voters can show discontent with Democrats for the way they have governed. Trump can also gain with black and Hispanic voters but more in California and New York and Texas noncompetitive states.  Harris does well in Florida, and Texas, and in some red states for the same reason as voters look for alternatives from being tied down to the Republican party or the Trump Republicans.  In the key Electoral College states in midwest Harris is holding up well in polling- in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. In these states Black and Hispanics are not in the same population numbers as in other states. ...

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Bernie Sanders who won in 23 states running for president says the American system is broken and this is why DJT won in 2026. He says Biden genuinely wanted to bring the changes to help workers. Other Democrats simply wanted to patch the system, a little here a little there. This he tells Reid Epstein of the NYT is not working and Bernie Sanders says DJT is right that the system is broken. Sanders excoriated billionaires in his speeches. Yet the tech billionaires at Apple, Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have over the last two decades supported Democrats and yet paid a lower tax rate than firemen, police, teachers. Apple paid less than 15%, Google less than 16%, Microsoft less than 18% and Amazon less than 9%. This also constitutes an oligarchy similar to the oil companies and pharmaceutical companies. This makes it difficult to have a fair system of taxes that can fund the Nation's crumbling infrastructure, its manufacturing, its chips and advanced technologies, health and education of children. Sanders is focusing his efforts or 2025 to 15 Congressional districts where Republicans won by very thin margins. And he is on his way to Iowa City and Omaha, Nebraska, where the margins were so thin to get his message to workers.  This interview also provides a hint of how DJT has approached the issues with a willingness to try unconventional approaches and people who did not fit the mold. RFK Jr. at Health, Tulsi Gabbard at Intelligence, Lori Chavez at Labor. Something that Democrats have failed to do to look at different ideas and find solutions to intractable problems in unconventional ways. Epstein asks why Tulsi Gabbard who supported Sanders bid for president is now in the DJT cabinet.    ...

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Senators Murphy and Cornyn have helped pass legislation on gun control and mental health, public safety, with the support of all Democrats and 15 Senators from Republicans including majority leader McConnell. This comes after shooting in their home states and the two shootings at an elementary school and a supermarket in Uvalde, Texas and Buffalo, New York. The bill passed the Senate 65 to 34 and crossed the 60 vote filibuster threshold which was a barrier in the past. Only two senators from the 15 Republicans are up for election this year, Romney faces an election in 2024, four are retiring and 8 senators of the 15 are up for reelection in 2026. This made a compromise possible separating those who wanted strict gun control from those who want no gun control from the compromise group to achieve a consensus that all could vote for.

 

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The Senate election in Georgia with Governor Kemp running for the Republican party will show how much support there is for Mr. Trump's idea that the 2022 presidential election was stolen by Democrats. Mr. Kemp has avoided getting into Mr. Trump's contention that the election was stolen, preferring to focus on good governance for the state and local issues relating to the economy. Kemp is likely to be the Republican nominee for the election to the US Senate and is well positioned to win the Senate seat.

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Abortion rights was at the centre of the governor's race in Kentucky and a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights in Ohio in yesterday's US elections. Democrats supporting abortion rights won both races with large margins. Throughout 2023 abortion rights for women has emerged as a dominant issue in US elections.

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Healthcare coverage of illegal migrants is at the center of the fight between Democrats and Republicans leading to the government shutdown on October 1, 2025. A slight majority of Americans favor deportation of illegal migrants is shown in a recent NYT poll. Even higher numbers are likely to see higher priorities in the Nation than funding of housing and healthcare for illegal migrants when most families in the US are living from paycheck to paycheck and government subsidies and assistance are being cut after Covid.

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To get a right grasp of the situation as a whole from the bigger picture than the headlines, is to know that even in the current chaotic immigration handling of both parties, the US comes out a winner in long term by 2034. That it gives for the younger generation a better future. Congress's Budget Office economic report shows GDP higher by 2% from the higher immigration of 5.2 million added to the US workforce by 2034. US productivity higher by 0.2% and residential investment including construction up by a whopping 10%. The younger profile of immigrants will help the US compete with India's younger population, and as China ages to have what it and Europe is aspiring to have- a younger population. The best way to look at the immigration issue is for the short term- manage it better by organized method of immigration without chaotic border crossings by allowing potential immigrants to apply from their home country, a step taken by the Biden administration. What it or any Republican administration could not control is the immigration that happens from countries the US is at war with or in conflict with. It is important to recognize that this is what happened with Venezuela the largest component of the immigration border crossings in 2023. It was made worse by actions of both parties Democrats and Republicans and made worse in 2017 by more severe sanctions on Venezuela under the Trump administration.  Also part of the problem is Venezuelan mismanagement- providing oil at pennies a gallon, hurting imports and spiralling inflation that only worsened under US sanctions after 2017. Long term- To reflect that US sanctions on top of mismanagement by Venezuela is a warning for all developing countries in Latin America, Africa, Asia and for the US. It meant 7 million refugees a staggering quarter of Venezuela's population fleeing the country, that burdened neighbors Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, Chile. By 2022-2023 many of these refugees were making their way up the Darien Gap to the US. Yet within this tragic situation for Venezuelan people how could the US best respond is to close the border as president Biden has proposed with McConnell and the Lankford effort in the Senate, which was blocked by the House under Mike Johnson. This gives time to assess the situation, correct US laws on asylum and parole that allowed this chaotic way to proceed under actions of both parties.And not let this destabilize the US by understanding that while Venezuela has suffered for its role in the crisis the US will ultimately have come out a winner, as pointed out by the Congressional Budget Office projections. CBO projections of this immigration impact by 2034 of increasing the workforce population by 5.2 million will provide higher GDP, more tax revenues, and higher productivity than without this group of Venezuelan and other immigrants in this special situation of 2022-2023. For the Immigration projections discussion given by Phillip Swagel, Director of the Congressional Budget Office see page 51 of the Budget and Economic Outlook 2024 to 2034. For this search for term Congressional Budget Office or CBO which brings up the report on PDF and turn to page 51 or just click on Original Article on Lyrarc.   ...

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Counting only people who voted in 2020 Biden is ahead 2 percentage points. 2024 Biden campaign is complicated by irregular and disengaged voters. Will disengaged mostly younger voters stay home or will they vote? What will happen with the churn- how many of the irregular voters from the last election will turn out and how many stay home. Many are Democrat leaning and as the election campaign progresses they may become more aware and vote but this is by no means certain. Many are younger voters or minority voters who are disengaged and do not follow what is happening. The economy not abortion or the border is important to these voters. President Biden has secured the vote of only 75% of these voters and has to find ways to reach them all.