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Cheese, bread and butter prices are up 30% in the UK in the last 2 years hitting people with low incomes the hardest.

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The rate rigging for foreign exchange rates by major banks leads to a legal settlement in Nov. 2014. The Financial Conduct Authority of Britain fines major banks 1.1 billion pounds. CFTC of the U.S. fined the banks $1.4 billion, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency imposed a fine of $950 million, and Swiss regulators a fine of $138 million.

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Noam Scheiber of NYT provides this illuminating account of how the changes in employment affected Hispanic Americans since 2004. About 500,000 jobs were created in the U.S. construction industry in 2014. Of this 315,000 jobs went to Hispanics with the highest number in California, Florida, Texas and Illinois, which have large Hispanic population. This has enabled Hispanic employment to reach the pre-recession levels in 2015 before this happens for blacks and whites, according to the Economic Report of the President. The drop in immigrants from Mexico crossing the border as economic conditions deteriorated in the U.S. in 2009-2012, and the stricter enforcement, has resulted in native born Americans benefitting most from the jobs created. Hispanics took the biggest hit following the recession in 2009-2012, with a loss of 700,000 jobs for the 3 million Hispanics employed in construction. During the 2004-2007 construction boom Pew Research shows 1.6 million jobs going to immigrants, of which 800,000 went to native born Hispanics, before the collapse in construction in 2009. This time the recovery is benefitting native born Americans most....

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In its May 2011 special report on international banking the Economist points out the need for banking regulators to take stronger action than they have so far. What it calls "pre-emptive insurance" it says is needed - stronger regulation, larger capital cushions, and some form of separation of different kinds of banking. Without this the dangers of excessive risk taking and banks that are "too big to fail" will continue to threaten the world's economy. Banks that are smaller and better capitalized says the Economist can fail more gracefully than the large mega banks that exist at this time. In fact the banks today in the U.S. are larger than at the time of the 2008 crisis. Other analysts also point to the lack of major changes in banking and financial structures today compared to the situation before the 2008 crisis, both in Europe and the U.S.

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There is only one way to interpret this. Putin and Russian influence have calmed down the Israel Iran war. DJT opening up discussions and talking to both Russia and China has created a sense in both countries that their vital interests are with the US, China on a trade agreement with the US, and Russia for a settlement of the Ukraine war on terms that it sees as fair. There is the issue of nuclear non-proliferation on which US, Russia, China, India, Germany and the EU, and the rest of the world are in agreement which meant action to end Iran's nuclear program. Putin met with Iranian Foreign Minister and looked for a way to end the war. Putin said: “This gives us a chance to…think together about how it would be possible to get out of this situation,” said Putin. From the point of view of a safer planet Biden's period of not talking to China during the balloon incident, and not talking to Russia with a single minded focus on Ukraine conflict, can be seen as not the way a responsible world power should act. DJT's emphasis to end the wars in the Middle East yet standing firm on Israel's right to exist and the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, and working to end the war on Ukraine by puting pressure on all countries, is proving to be an approach that gives all world powers a chance to reflect truly on their obligations to their peoples and the people of the world. To keep their and the world's sanity and composure while pursuing national aspirations. ...

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This WSJ editorial says the Corker-Cardin compromise that requires the U.S. president to submit any nuclear deal with Iran to the U.S. Congress for debate, is the best option for both Democrats and Republicans who are skeptical of such a deal. It says amendments by senators Cruz and Rubio will not be effective. What the Corker-Cardin compromise developed by senators Corker and Cardin of the Foreign Relations Committee accomplishes, is letting the American people through their elected representatives get a full and complete debate on the merits and demerits of the deal. Democrats in the Senate are also concerned about their election chances after Mr. Obama leaves office, and will want to have a fair debate of the pros and cons before voting, says the Journal. This debate will bring more light to the questions that worry critics the most- how will compliance by Iran be secured, and can snapback sanctions work if China, Russia and other European nations go the other way. Congressional review puts a higher level of scrutiny for any agreement before it moves forward. A requirement that the government submit a review every 90 days on compliance to Congress also gives president Obama's successor a chance to reassess the situation....

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Intel and its shepherding of wireless technology that beats fixed line broadband. The effort at Intel is led by Sean Maloney. And Intel has signed up Nokia, Samsung, Sprint and other key players to its effort to develop and promote wi-max technology for wireless. Its a sure bet for emerging market countries where wireless makes sense. But its also making sense for the US and other developed countries. Still hurdles remain and 2009 will be a critical for Wi-Max.

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The downturn starting in the 2008 financial crisis destroyed a huge portion of the average American's personal wealth- some estmates running to 40%. This was followed by periods of unemployment which depleted savings accounts, lower wage jobs, and followed by further erosion of savings accounts with little or no interest. The gains on the stock market have one problem- the benefits go in large part to affluent Americans who are already well prepared for retirement. A U.S. Senate report shows a huge retirement savings deficit- about $6.6 trillion, which comes to $57,000 for every American household.

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The treaty of handover by Britain of Hong Kong under one country, two systems was flawed in the way it was negotiated. French commentators looking at the problem say the city is caught between its past in the British Empire and the new monolithic state that China represents. Under the British French visitors looked at the city and wondered how there was freedom but no democracy, people were just selfishly just interested in making money. Chris Patten, Britain's administrator of the territory tried but failed to get democratic process, During the negotiations in 1984 for handover the chief British negotiator, Percy Cradock, a former ambassador to China, tells the Australian Broadcasting Corporation that - In Hong Kong where there is such a disparity in strength between the two sides, you go for the best you can get, I take the simple view that half a loaf is better than no bread." Britain had very little leverage to secure a separate future for Hong Kong because it was small compared to much larger China resulting unequal negotiations. The same is true today as the best Britain could do is to get out a joint declaration with Australia and Canada saying that it did not approve the new security law, that it violated the treaty signed by Britain and China. The French view expressed by the editor of La Croix is that hasty poorly planned British exits- as happened in British India -have led to crises and conflicts for postcolonial generations, a legacy of British colonial rule. India and Pakistan still sorting out Kashmir, and India and China still fighting about the McMahon Line border area. The situation is very different for the U.S. which now has to respond in some way, and this comes as trade tensions and coronavirus tensions about its origins in China and the failure of Beijing to allow quick entry for an American team into Wuhan. This being for 7 weeks between Jan 6 request and February 16 permission. America sees this as losing 7 precious weeks to make up its own determination of the dangers when every week health experts say means saving or losing tens of thousands of lives. With loss of 100,000 lives the Trump administration has a sense of being misled. This French report in FR24 points out that the lack of a strong response from the U.S. would be something similar to letting the Berlin Wall happen without a response. Both sides in a situation where the territory of Hong Kong remained mostly about money and with a disproportionate influence of business interests similar to its founding under the unequal treaties of the 1850's. ...

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There are some major problems in the American jobs market which suggest a long drawn out effort to reduce the high unemployment rate. One is the divergence between the vacancies that are developing and the rate at which firms are filling these vacancies. With vacancies remaining, unfilled and firms remaining cautious about the economic outlook and leery of hiring, the increase in economic output or GDP growth of 3% expected on the optimistic side in 2011 is not translating into lower unemployment. Structural problems are causing a great deal of difficulty in reducing the jobless rate. The recession hit manufacturing and construction very hard. And those who worked in these industries are not those with the skills and training to take up jobs in health care and education or other similiar fields- here skill mismatches are the problem. Geographic factors and the property prices drop are creating additional barriers. About 25% of mortgage borrowers owe more than their property is worth, and their are fewer buyers in regions with depressed job prospects like Michigan. There is a large increase in long term unemployment- over 27 weeks. Those out of work for more than 6 months see their skiils, job connections and confidence erode. A Brookings Institution paper estimates that this rise in long term unemployment by itself can cause labor market recovery to take twice as long as after the 1982 recession under Reagan, when unemployment reached a high of 10.8% and took 2 years to get back to 7.5%. Add to this the fact that a lot of jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, with a six percentage increase in unemployment in a short period unmatched by anything since the Great Depression, with long term unemployed reaching 6.5 millon or nearly half of the total. And the 3% growth rate estimated by the government is anything but certain. It is questioned by the IMF as a stretch. This does not take into account the problems in the banking sector, as home equity loans gone bad show up on their balance sheets in latter part of 2010. According to a CreditSights report (see the US economy in 2010 in Group search for more information on this) with estimated losses of $33 billion. A struggling banking sector and tighter credit will add a structural dimension from the banking sector to the wobbly hiring. The "muddle through" approach to banking problems of the Obama administration in tackling bank's bad debt will continue to pose risks....

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U.S. unemployment declined to 7.7% in November 2012 from 7.9% the prior month, with 146,000 jobs created, according to the Labor Dept. The rate for the prior two months was revised downward by 49,000 jobs. The labor force dropped by 350,000 jobs, with fewer people looking for work, which suggests continued problems in finding jobs. The number of people saying they had a job fell by 122,000. The retail sector added 53,000 jobs, leisure and hospitality 23,000 and professional and business services 43,000.

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Wadhwa describes the impact of patent trolls on the U.S. patent system. He says the patent system in its current form, with extensive patent defenses by technology firms costing billions of dollars, litigation by companies that are not representing inventors, and the overall negative effects on new companies, actually reduces innovation. There has been a surge in lawsuits regarding smartphone and software patents as a result of businesses that collect patents and sue to earn money through legal settlements.

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The NYT calls for the rewriting of the relevant passage in the Patriot Act that is used as a justification for data vacuuming by presidents Bush and Obama. NYT editorial board says it was never intended to allow collection of every phone call and every email information, that this is a clear violation of the U.S. Constitution, and also the spirit of the law. The editorial concludes that president Obama never intended to implement the changes recommended by his presidential panel on reforming the NSA surveillance, even though he keeps talking about striking a balance between civil liberties and security surveillance.

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The surprise is the DJT Senate bill cuts to about 75% of the solar and wind subsidies in the Biden 2022 IRA Act for $843 billion in investments that were going to Republican districts. New rules in the Senate version of 3B Tax Cuts Bill require US renewable solar to disentangle supply chain from China by 2027 or face an excise import tax. All renewable subsidies will also be phased out earlier by 2027 instead of 2032 set by the Biden administration in the Inflation Reduction Act. The Inflation Reduction Act passed in 2022 with subsidies, tax credits for renewables solar and wind led to $843 billion in planned solar and wind investments. Suddenly much of this is placed in doubt. Instead of 2032 phase out the date is moved up to end of 2027 for 30% subsidies and to end of 2028. The result is confusion in the renewables industry and opposition to the excise tax for not disentangling from China supply chain by end of 2027 spreading to the US Chamber of Commerce. ...

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The southern U.S. which was early to reopen the economy after the lockdown with some states having only partial lockdowns, is emerging from the coronavirus in much better shape than the rest of the U.S. The unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in August, the lowest of any region. The number of people employed was only 6% lower in August than in February, when most of the U.S. went into lockdown, compared with declines of 10.6% in the Northeast, 8.2% in the West, and 7% in the Midwest. Some of this was a result of aggressive reopening in Texas and other southern states. Overall deaths in the south were 60 per 100,000 people compared to 132 in the Northeast including New York and New Jersey, Midwest at 52, and West at 40. The Northeast numbers are high because of the elderly in nursing homes hit hard in New York and New Jersey.  In the southern states by comparison the deaths came later and among young people taking risks. The virus hit the northeast early and parts of the midwest, southern states had the advantage of some of the work already being initiated in March to fight the virus nationwide. Many of these states are also Republican and residents feared the virus much less. Republican Governors followed their instincts and aggressively reopened putting the economy first. The numbers tell the story. In South Carolina 44% of Republicans say they aren't afraid of the virus outbreak in the local area, compared to just 2% of Democrats, according to Civiqs poll. Georgia and Florida have similar numbers, all with Republican Governors. One factor favoring southerners is that cities in the south are much less dense and less populated than in the North and West. Smaller cities than Los Angeles and New York. ...

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Krauthammer quotes Congressional Budget Office Director, Elmendorf, who said "we don't estimate speeches," when Elmendorf was asked about President Obama's April 13 debt plan speech. President Obama has failed to come up with specific ideas for debt reduction and not taken up any position on debt reduction, including removing tax expenditures as recommended by the President's Bowles-Simpson Commission report. Krauthammer says the President is using the discussion on debt reduction and the debt talks as a way to move forward with his reelection campaign. This President Obama has done by not putting forward any new ideas of his own or backing the ideas of the Bowles -Simpson Commission, and by putting Republicans on the defensive for coming up with any new ideas which may be unpopular. He calls the President's February 2011 efforts on debt issues a farce, and the April 2011 efforts empty, lacking any substantial specifics.

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The yen is at 134 to the dollar in June 2022 having dropped by 22% in 2022. The US Fed is increasing rates while the Bank of Japan is keeping its low interest rate policy. Japan's inflation is at 2.5% compared to 8.6% in April 2022 for the US. The last time the central bank intervened to buy dollar was in 1998 with severe yen overvaluation which is not the case now. The yen's weakening means the parts Japan imports from its supply chain in Asia now cost much more.

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Inflation is running at just 2% annualized for the last 3 months, Jay Powell says "the disinflationary process has started." Powell says the Fed's initial view that inflation was transitory and that once the supply chain and other problems were sorted out it would decline has been borne out, only it took a year longer than expected to happen. Still some of it wasn't Powell believes and for this reason he does not want to let up on the fight against inflation. Giving up too early is still a mistake Powell wants to avoid.

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US president Biden's State of the Union speech on Tuesday Feb. 7 is much awaited as he prepares for the 2024 election. Much of the major legislation including the Inflation Reduction Act and the Chips and Science Act had bipartisan support. America is back and building better, and Biden hopes to continue his efforts in this direction, even as he faces a divided US Congress. Biden will also want to show the vigorous style of his leadership as America recovers its position in manufacturing, research and development, improves the lives of working families and tackles inflation.

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The return of women to the workforce is tapping into the US economy's underlying strength, its services sector, even as rising inflation and higher interest rates pose recession risks, says the WSJ. In the competition for a limited pool of workers women are also getting pay raises, which in turn supports increased consumer spending and economic growth. More women in the workforce will ease worker shortages and help cool inflation. Still barriers remain. About 5 million people were not working because of children who are not in childcare or school, according to the US Census Bureau.

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Mail in ballots in the vote for the US Senate in Nevada will pay a crucial role for Democrats to control the Senate. Some reports say Democrats who are running at about 61% in mail in ballots could make it through if they get 55% to give Ms. Cortez Masto the Democrat a seat in the Senate. With Arizona leaning Democrat this would give the Democrats control of the Senate even before the runoff election in the third undecided state of Georgia in December. So close has been the struggle for the US Senate.

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High levels of covid and RSV in the US are leading to health authorites saying wearing masks is needed to prevent it from spreading. Los Angles is likely to introduce a mask requirement for indoors by the end of December 2022. Carrying hand sanitizer and keeping wipes with you is a good idea because RSV spreads through touching infected surfaces. Vaccination for flu and covid is also a key prevention action. As most people are no longer wearing masks in the US the practice of wearing masks is becoming a good idea once again.

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Canoeist Neal Moore, 50 years, makes his way across America's rivers for 7500 miles - 22 months of paddling during covid over many rivers across 22 states, going from the Columbia river in Oregon to the Gulf coast and then back up to the Great Lakes and upstate New York to Hudson river. On the way seeing what it means to be American today, to see the country up close, to go community to community, and write in the Mark Twain way about his experiences, a laptop tucked away in a waterproof bag in his canoe.

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Methane is a greenhouse gas that can warm the atmosphere 80 times as fast as carbon dioxide in the short term. Methane leaks out of oil and natural gas wells and is produced in burning of oil, natural gas and coal. It is also produced by livestock and landfills. US president Biden and 90 countries have pledged to control methane gas emissions at COP26 in Glasgow by signing a methane pledge. The methane pledge is for reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030. US, EU, Nigeria, Indonesia have signed the pledge. China, Russia, India have still to sign the pledge.

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President Biden and Russian president Putin held a two hour virtual meeting on December 7, to discuss Ukraine. Biden stated that the US would take action to support defense arrangements in Ukraine, Poland, Romania, and other Eastern European countries, if Russia invaded Ukraine. He urged Russia to return to diplomatic talks to settle differences over Ukraine. US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan described the virtual meeting in this way- "There was a lot of give and take. No finger wagging. But the president was crystal clear about where the United States stands on all of these issues."