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This article in the Economist describes the different perspectives on the Greece crisis in July 2015 as seen inside Germany. It cites a poll showing German 51% to 41% favoring a Greek exit from the eurozone. About 85% reject further concessions in a July 1, 2015 poll, including 68% of the supporters of The Left, a post-Communist party. Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel, said of the Greece timeout from the euro proposal by finance minister Schauble- that it was the appropriate thing to consider all options. And 78% polled see Greeks not keeping their side of the deal. Some experts see stronger sentiment about Greece after the events in July 2015, and the raising of the issue of the debt haircut given to Germany in 1953, because Germans see themselves as having gone to great lengths to build a strong Europe after their own troubled history in the 20th century. If the goal was to win German support in 2015, this has come across as poor tactics and poor strategy, considering how it has changed German opinion across the spectrum of political opinion....

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Germany's social-affairs minister, Ursula von der Leyden, presents the "fourth poverty and wealth report," in March 2013. The issue of inequality is arousing public sentiment in Germany with this becoming an election issue along with the euro crisis and energy reform. The term Gerechtigkeit means "justice" in German and is associated with the idea of equality. The Social Democrats Party and the Greens talk about this in terms of "social scissors" opening wider. The Minder Initiative which passed in Switzerland enabling shareholders to restrict executive pay has led to public discussion in Germany for a similiar approach to be adopted by Germany. The ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) of Angela Merkel and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) party are different from other parties in Europe because of their Catholic and Lutheran roots which favor social solidarity. The FDP party in the ruling coalition supports free market principles but lacks popular support. The Economist cites the work of the German think tank DIW on inequality, which shows inequality showing sharp rise after German reunification around 1991, especially in East Germany. The situation moderates with improvements in inequality in East Germany and a slight improvement in West Germany after 2005. Both East and W. Germany have moved up overall in the Ginni coefficeint which measures inequality from about 0.4 in 1991 to about 0.5 in 2010, showing that the situation has stabilized at a higher level of inequality. Part of this could be because of the shift to temporary workers at lower wages about this time as German industry made efforts to keep wages down and improve competitiveness, even as overall conditions in the economy improved in the last decade. The Economist cites another study by the Initiative for a New Social Market Economy, a German think tank, which compares Germany with other members of the OECD. Germany ranks closer to Scandinavian countries in seventh place in this study, but does poorly in equal oportunities with 14th place. Germany lags behind other OECD and European countries in opportunities for women to work full time. Germany lacks enough daycare facilities for small children so that their mothers can work full time. There is a shortage of about 150,000 for preschool daycare openings in Germany, acccording to information cited by Deutsche Welle from government sources....

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This piece by Jonathan Martin in the NYT says some Republican party establishment donors and leaders now agree with Ted Cruz's assessment of the 2016 U.S. presidential election- the critical element will be rallying the Republican base to win in 2016. As Tom Hamburger points out in the Washington Post, Cruz is using technology to advantage in the campaign effort to rally evangelical base support, and working to build support from the ground up.

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Altran says the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has evolved into avery different organization. It has about 100,000 supporters in a population of 80 million. Altran and other experts estimate that at the most it would get about the support of ony 20% of the people and over the years it has emerged as a moderate political party in Egypt, with its current focus on establishing free expression and democratic rights in Egypt.

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The shrinking of the 25 point lead of Joko Widodo over a Suharto era general, Subianto, as television networks shift support to Subianto. Indonesia's presidential elections are set for July 9, 2014. Widodo, is a popular governor of Jakarta, and the candidate of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle. Its chairwoman is former president Megawati Sukarnoputri. The slow progress on infrastructure projects in Jakarta, including a light rail line, is affecting Widodo's lead.

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George Osborne of the Conservative Party on Britain's finances, with deficit at 13% of GDP in 2009 and debt expected to reach 100% of GDP in 2014, says Britain has borrowed too much and is sinking in a sea of debt. His program points to tax cuts for Britain's financial district as he says everyone is being asked to sacrifice so much. It also means cutting spending on social services and public sector wage freezes.

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This report in The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong, gives insights into the Chinese position in trade war with the U.S.  China has its own internal groups which support China being able to take a leadership role in world affairs. Xi Jinping made giving China a prominent role in the world a feature of his presidency. China  has this internal audience and its own sense that China's resurgence was won with hard work and cooperation, plus dedication of the Chinese people. In the past Japan and South Korea also used state subsidized industries, and subsidies to gain leadership in key business sectors involving high technology. China would see this state subsidies model as its own model of development. From this standpoint the U.S. demands on subsidies as unfair competition could be seen as changing a key part of its economic model.  Asking China to put everything in writing and show tangible proof of enforcement as the U.S. insisted in talks, was too much for the Chinese side. China said trust us to do this, and lift the tariffs based on our verbal assurances. The U.S. having seen decades of no progress on this point, wanted tangible proof before tariffs were lifted. Added to the demands on subsidies were the demands for no more of what the U.S. calls stealing of U.S. technology through forced transfer of technology by U.S. firms as a condition to operate in Chinese markets. With the U.S. lagging in 5G technology and Huawei ahead the issue resonates on the U.S. side. Add to this Mr. Trump's key voter base includes the former Democratic party supporting workers who have shifted to him because of trade agreements and policies of Clinton and Obama that hurt American workers through seemingly endless closure of manufacturing plants from Chinese competition.   ...

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The passage of legislation to double the sales tax to 10% passed the lower house of parliament in Japan by a vote of 363 to 96, with 57 members of the 289 members of parliament of the Democratic Party of Japan voting against it. The IMF in a recent report recommending increasing the sales tax to 15%, raising the retirement age, and cutting social security spending. Moody's investors Service described the move as "credit positive" for Japannese government bonds, and see it as a first step.

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Problems facing the BJP after the firing of former foreign minister Jaswant Singh for his opinions on Jinnah in a recent book. The influence of the RSS organization. The need for moderation to act as an effective opposition. The Economist points out that the ruling Congress party only got just 2% additnal votes this time so there is no unambiguous and clear mandate. The overinfluence of the Gandhi family in Congresss politics makes the BJP as the only viable alternative at the national level.

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On September 26 Germany holds a general election to decide who will lead Germany after Merkel. Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats is seen as personally popular for his work in government with 48% support in recent polls, with Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats at 24% and Annalena Baerbock at 27%. The Social Democrats poll 24% and are expected to form a government with the Greens at 16% and the FDP party. Baerbock of the Greens and Armin Laschet of the Christian Democrats have lost support in recent weeks with the floods and other events. The figures are from Deutschlandtrend poll by Infratest dimap Institute.  The CDU of Merkel looks less likely to form a government under leadership of Armin Laschet today compared to a few months before. Merkel is still popular with most Germans but this support does not carry over to Armin Laschet. There may also be some sense among Germans that it is time for a change in government after the Merkel years even though she is personally popular. The difficulties imposed by the pandemic on the German people, and the added problems of the floods could lead voters to look for change in government under new leadership more sensitive to the problems of today- infrastructure, employment participation of people held back by the pandemic, and rebuilding healthcare, education, childcare systems, tackling climate change issues. ...

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A new state government in Bihar state, India, takes shape with Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister and 2 Deputy CM's from the BJP party. Bihar is the second largest state in India after Uttar Pradesh, with Maharashtra the third, West Bengal fourth making up the top four by population each with over 100 million people. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat make up the top 7 states each of these three with about 75 million population. Rapid economic development depends on state governments working with the federal government on investment, technologies and effective governance. Gujarat and Maharashtra form an industrial core for India with investment increasing in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh which forms the rural interior in the Ganges plains. In contrast to China where industrial development is state driven led by the CCP in a centralized form embedded in the complete authority of the central government, India has to achieve this through the democratic process based on delivery of infrastructure projects and standards of living. Much of this depends on the combined effort of federal and state governments ,with seven of these eight states having this coordinated effort in 2024, at a time when foreign investment in the economy is increasing rapidly to diversify global supply chains. This provides an opportunity for India to change from a developing economy to an advanced industrial economy in stages by 2030 and 2040. ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...

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Ms. Annegret Kramp-Krarrenbauer, elected leader of the CDU party in 2018 with the support of Angela Merkel, will not run for chancellor in next years election and will resign from her position by the end of the year. She will continue as Germany's defense minister. After losses for the CDU in recent elections and the embarrassment of local CDU leaders in Thuringia supporting the far right AfD, AKK as she is known decided to step down. Angela Merkel has decided not to run for chancellor again. Germany is set to chair the EU in the second half of 2020, and Merkel is no longer seen as a leader of influence. The Nationalist Alternative for Germany AfD has gained votes in recent elections following the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, with large numbers of refugees from North Africa and Arab world landing in Greece and Turkey and walking to Hungary, Austria and Germany. Merkel's handling of the crisis with acceptance of a million refugees in 2015-2016 unsettled European and German politics. Why? One way of looking at it is that in the same way that the U.S. took in Chinese imported goods ending in the Trump tariffs war, at some point it just becomes too big to handle. That ended up at $1 billion a day in imports from China when president Trump called it off and accused Obama Democrats, Bush Republicans, of betraying the country. Putting it into perspective Germany with one fourth of the population of the U.S. took in about twice the number of refugees in just one year 2015-2016 that the U.S. took in 10 years 2005-2015. The U.S. took in 675,000 immigrants between 2005-2015. This is as if the U.S. took in something like 20 million immigrants in a short period of 1 year on an equivalent basis- though the cultural impact is even greater in a nation like Germany that is like Japan an historically immigrant averse nation. All this happened too quickly for Germany to handle for its fragile cultural fabric. Much of the initial outpouring of support and positive sentiment came from the sense of having gone through World War II and the refugees in that and the early post war period, the need to return in the same spirit support Germany had received. Over time it eroded support for the Christian Democratic Union and Merkel. That Merkel could have done this is itself a small miracle. Now the rebuilding has to begin. Adenauer's CDU and the socialist SPD party of Willy Brandt now have less than 50% support, only with the Greens Party do they make up 50%. The question now is can the CDU, and the SPD which has fallen to 14% in elections, make it back and what kind of future makeup political parties will have in Germany, how the social fabric can be restored. AKK's achievement is to mend relations between the liberal Merkel wing of the CDU and conservatives from Bavaria (CSU) over immigration.  Candidates for CDU leadership are Armin Laschet, Jens Spahn, and Friedrich Merz. Laschet premier of North Rhine-Westphalia has Merkel's support. Looking back too much attention was taken up by the euro crisis, and too little was done in the areas of infrastructure, inequality gaps, education, child care, under Merkel's leadership and of the preceding SPD years, much like what happened under Bush and Obama administrations in the U.S. where wars, economic crises led to neglect on issues that affect lives of ordinary working families. ...

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In this exhibit in the Library of Congress Herblock in the Washington Post lampoons the efforts in 1952 of Senators Joseph McCarthy and Jenner to place unfounded criticism on Adlai Stevenson the Democratic candidate for president. The 1952 campaign for president in the US is reminiscent of the campaigns since 2016, 2020, 2024. In 1952 the US was engaged in the Korean War and there was increasing fatigue with that war as Communist China pushed back Gen. MacArthur's forces and the armies moved back and forth across the Korean peninsula. Eisenhower offered to go to Korea to find an end to the war. The Korean War comes only a few years after China became a People's Republic in 1949 under the Communist party led by Mao-tse-tung and the Berlin Crisis. This led to an effort by Senator Joseph McCarthy and Senator Jenner in the 1952 campaign to make all sorts of criticism much of it unfounded about Adlai Stevenson who had just been elected Governor of Illinois. Eisenhower was a much respected figure and had planned not to run or run as an Independent and only agreed under much persuasion from Dewey and the Eastern Establishment (New York and Boston). Eisenhower had led American forces in the Western Command under George Marshall and president Harry Truman and had not sought the presidency only to have his name placed on the ballot in New Hampshire. In the middle of a campaign Eisenhower (Ike) did not openly refute McCarthy and Jenner but had showed considerable discomfort with their unfounded rhetoric and tactics. ...

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Argentina, South Africa, Mexico, India, UK, European Union elections are taking place by June 2024 and US in November 2024. Yet it is misleading to lump them together. Much discontent is there to see as in the UK with cost of living, governance, time wasted on Brexit, India with lingering effects of the pandemic on rural voters, caste based voting. In India protest vote of lower caste Dalit voters in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, even with government support in forms of universal healthcare, food for poor households during pandemic extended, cooking gas, housing support, clean tap water, direct bank account deposit to accounts of poor and farmers. Yet in the states in the south and east in Orissa and Andhra Pradesh, and generally in the south the BJP vote count increased so that losses in the north were made up leaving the percentage of vote for India for Modi's BJP party at 37 percent in 2024 instead of 38% in 2019, losing the absolute majority 240 seats of 543 yet having campaigned heavily for partners who added seats 294 of 543. In the UK Keir Starmer may see some vote preference for Labor erode yet the Conservative record is in shambles even conservative experts will say, as in India where the opposition parties offer no prospects for the future and little track record for making India the second or third largest economy in the world which the BJP has set and shown to have achieved over 10 years by taking India to No. 5 in the world economies. ...

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Peggy Noonan calls the Bernie movement and Hillary Clinton adopting his efforts to improve incomes and condition of working class people, a major development. The most electrifying line in her view is the one made by the father of a U.S. Army Captain who died in Iraq, Khizr Khan, himself an immigrant, who said about Trump at the convention- "You have sacrificed nothing." She cites Bloomberg, a successful businessman in media and former Mayor of New York, who said about Trump: "I'm a New Yorker, and I know a con when I see one."  Bloomberg traced the history of the Trump business through repeated bankruptcies, lawsuits and missteps, and added "Trump says he wants to run the nation like he's run his business. God help us." And Noonan cites Hillary's speech as getting better as it progressed, not her best, but doing the work, especially with the line- "Don't believe anyone who says "I alone can fix it."  Biden and Kaine hit on this point repeatedly, and that "he doesn't have a clue," with the crowd chanting "Not a Clue."  ...

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Public opinion in France is divided about France's dependence on nuclear power. Ifop's survey of Nov. 13, 2011, shows 40% of the French are now "hesitant" about nuclear power, about 33% favor nuclear power and 17% are against it. About two-thirds of the ruling UMP party of Nicholas Sarkozy supports nuclear power, while half of the Socialist party supporters say they are not sure about the path ahead. The issue is becoming important in the election, as the UMP claims the Socialist party's proposal to shut down 24 of the 58 reactors if elected will cost thousands of jobs and solar power cannot take its place overnight. The French are a bit puzzled by the nuclear issue in contrast to Germany where the issue arouses strong emotions, because nuclear energy had become accepted in France till the Fukushima nuclear disaster raised safety issues. EDF which operates the plants plans to increase spending on safety measures and on maintenance after audits by the French nuclear regulator. EDF's share price was down 40% since the nuclear accident at Fukushima, Japan....

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Astoundingly in America 90 percent of people support universal background checks, yet private party sellers are not required to conduct background checks when selling guns. According to a Pew Research Center poll 67 percent of people support a ban on selling assault weapons to civilians, yet no such ban exists. It has taken this long just for president Trump to come out in favor of background checks. Ironically mass shootings have led to higher stock prices for gun manufacturers such as Smith and Wesson, as DW.com points out.  The National Rifle Association, NRA, has five million members and it lobbies hard to prevent gun control measures being passed in Congress. Members of Congress are even rated A to F based on their support for the NRA. Today an estimated 42% of Americans own guns, with 265 million guns in private hands. The NRA sees gun owning rights as part of the Second Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, believing that the right to bear arms is a basic right supported by the Constitution. The NRA over many decades has shown no flexibility in its stance and fierce lobbying has brought down every gun control measure introduced. ...

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This report in the NYT by Halbfinger and Kershner shows a Israel that is divided in its views about prime minister Netanyahu. In early 2018 with the police report on the investigation into Mr. Netanyahu on campaign finances, half of Israelis support Netanyahu, with the other half thinking that Netanyahu should resign. Mr. Netanyahu has dismissed the investigation as full of holes like Swiss cheese. His supporters see it as part of a left wing conspiracy including state prosecutors and police. Supporters of Netanyahu see him as having improved Israel's security in its region, people who oppose him see him as being too divisive, using divisive rhetoric to improve his own position.  Younger voters in particular have a distaste for divisive politics practiced under Netanyahu, which extends to the supporters of Israel in America, and the policies leading to delaying of the peace project.  That peace project is also seen as part of the nation's mission to seek peace with its immediate neighbors, an unfinished project for Israel as a nation. After many years in office Netanyahu's party lacks the dynamic vision needed and it now appears only to see remaining in office as its goal, according to this NYT report. This is happening at a time when a larger centrist constituency is developing in Israel as most of the moderates are outside government. ...

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Italy's South is its poorest region, with scarce job opportunities. It has not recovered fully from the economic crisis of 2009. The Five Star movement in the current centre right governing coalition has many of its voters in the south of Italy. The government is fighting to save a Arcelor steel plant in the coastal city of Taranto. The state is working to prevent other factories from closing. The Italian north industrialized early being closer to France and Germany, the southern region remained agricultural with immigration as a way out of poverty. The government supported jobs in the south and industrial development after 1945, and expanded public sector jobs. Regional progress in the south stalled since 2000. Today per capita gross domestic product in the north is 35,000 euros compared to 19,000 euros in the south of Italy, according to Eurostat. Unemployment in some southern towns is 20%, compared to less than 10% average in the north. The answer says prime minister Giuseppe Conte, is to "have a sort of bank of the South for investments." The opposition party far right Northern League led by Matteo Salvini is popular and is also pushing for supporting southern regions with extra funding. ...

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Germany has 60.4 million people who can vote in the upcoming September 26 parliamentary elections. Of this more than half are over age 50 years. This is part of a demographic change in Germany with falling population, more deaths than births in the country. As a result German voting population is getting older and smaller, 1.3 million smaller this time than in the last election. In 1987 23% of voters were under age 30 years, in 2021 this is down to 15%. For older voters in 1987 26% of voters were over age 60 years, in 2021 this is up to 38%. Older voters also have higher turnout of about 81% compared to voters age 21 to 24 years at 67% turnout. Older voters had a strong party affiliation early in their life says one polling expert for Infratest. Older voters tend to vote mostly for SPD or CDU the two main parties. The far right and far left parties have support in East Germany's 12.5 million population out of 82.5 million in Germany. CDU gets its vote from workers with higher than median income, and SPD from voters at the median income. Greens are supported by higher income groups.   ...

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The Guardian newspaper in Britain says the EU proposals of Boris Johnson's minority government do not face up to the realities. The three problems with the proposals are failure to consider the will of all the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland who favor a open and free border between the two Irelands. The DUP is the party in Ireland that does not speak for the whole of Ireland or Northern Ireland, its people voted to Remain in the European Union, and Johnson is following the DUP.  The Good Friday Agreement and the Irish peace accords include moral and political obligations made by Britain. Boris Johnson and Tory hardliners do not plan to respect these commitments to an open free flowing border in Ireland.  The vague customs arrangements between the UK and the EU are not what the EU would consider as normal and are problem for consumers and public. It creates a hole in EU customs arrangements and is not a workable solution. For these reasons the Guardian rejects the idea that this is a compromise, and finds the word "perfidy," or breaking promises to the Irish people, and in new ways from Tory hardliners from the past. ...

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Robert Mueller, the special counsel, says the Mueller Report and his investigation into the 2016 presidential election does not exonerate president Trump. If we had exonerated the president we would have said so, said Mueller in a public statement. "If we had confidence the president did not commit a crime we would have said that," Mueller said. He said the constitution of the U.S. does not allow a sitting president to be charged by the special counsel. Because the special counsel office is under the Justice Department and the department policy set the manner of the report, charging the president was not an option he had. The Republican party controls the Senate and the Democrats control the House of Representatives. Any effort by Democrats in the House to impeach the president would fail in the Senate. Democrats and Speaker Pelosi are wary of impeachment proceedings. Mr. Mueller's statement suggests there is also growing discomfort in Congress about taking no action at all that would be construed as exonerating the president for what happened during the presidential election, because it might set improper precedent for the future. This increases the pressure for impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives from some Democrats for more information to let Congress decide. ...