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FR24 gives this video of the televised national debate in France between Macron and Le Pen. Macron took up the challenge of not enough attention being given to Le Pen's ties with Russia and her position of skepticism when it comes to the European Union and climate change. "You are dependent on the Russian government and you are dependent on Mr. Putin. When you speak to Russia, you are speaking to your banker." Le Pen says she had taken that loan from a Czech-Russian bank only because French banks refused to lend to her. "I'm absolutely and totally free woman." The candidates also clashed over Le Pen's proposal for banning Muslim women from wearing headscarves. Le Pen described the veil as "a uniform imposed by Islamists." Macron sad that such a plan would violate France's secular rules and would trigger "civil war" in a country that has the largest Muslim population in western Europe. The Fench colonoized parts of North Africa during the period after 1830, with French colonies in Algeria, Morocco and other parts of the region, leading to immigration from this part of the Arab world. After a series of terrorist incidents the French public lost patience with Islamist tendencies leading to a general swing to the right in French politics including Macron. Yet mainstream parties such as Macron's continue to support France's secular values. The traditional parties from the period before Macron such as the Le Republicains of the De Gaulle period in the sixties and the Socialists from the Mitterand period (1981-1995) both failed to win more than 5% of the vote in 2022 showing the many changes happening in France.  During the Macron period as president Yellow Vest protests brought up the issues of working families having a hard time making ends meet. Macron has responded to such protests with some aloofness but also with a tendency to organize town hall meetings to listen to people express their frustrations.  France has established a stronger welfare state than the US and Britain, and for this reason issues related to the dislocation of smaller towns because of the shift of manufacturing to China are part of the general trend that had affected both the US and western Europe, requiring a more unified response. This now takes shape with the renewal of manufacturing in the US and all the western European countries. Candidates with platforms such as Le Pen's to provide relief for the current surge in the cost of living could offer temporary band aid solutions but not address the root causes that require a renewal of French manufacturing and bringing good jobs home or closer to home. The will and aspiration to bring a next generation industrial revolution to France and Europe is the kind of solution that is needed, one that would revive towns and communities across France and across Europe. Much of the technological capabilities are there in Europe, needed is the will and aspiration.  ...

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Current responses to China's different posture in international relations obscure the huge investments made by US and European Union business in China that lead to about $1 trillion in exports from China to US and EU in 2021. This could not happen without the hyper investment in China by business in the US and EU that not only neglected manufacturing technologies in the home country but did this on a immense scale that would end up shipping almost the whole of the manufacturing supply chains to China from the US and EU. Done as a carefully planned shift of some manufacturing operations it could have benefitted both China and the US and EU. In what way was this hyper move in pace and scale damaging? China's water, air and land was contaminated at a rapid pace never before seen in history, seen as early as 2005. And the hyper shift by 2015 and in 2020 is now showing the severe effects of climate change with droughts, floods and fires all over the world. The German Environment Ministry today counts the cost at 90 times in the use of coal and fossil fuels over time. On the scale that this massive and fast shift was done of manufacturing to China even more so- a hugely imprudent response of US and EU business management and executives. Instead of tackling and confronting head on the challenging problems of quality control and cost in the 1990's through 2000 and beyond at home, management at Apple and other companies simply shifted all manufacturing to China. The other ill effect of the imprudent response of American business was in the massive and wholesale shift of supply chain to China by offshoring practically the entire manufacturing base. It was to lead to the massive losses that workers, families  and communities in the US and EU that countries could not cope with as it moved on an accelerated hyper level and pace. The result was to lead to intense criticism of China and a level of rancor that has poisoned the relations with China. Some of this counsel to China was given to leaders of the Communist party who had little knowledge of American capitalism operating within constraints of social democracy in 1990. Some of that counsel was self interested given by investment banks to Chinese officials- investment bankers that have now disappeared from view- who themselves lacked an understanding of the social constraints of American and European democracies. It is that rancor that is now leading to China and the US disconnecting the supply chains leading to questions one is certain within China about how this will affect unemployment in China in the years to come. The pandemic simply accelerated this realization on both sides of this untenable situation. Still a trillion dollars in exports are taking place even as the political situation is now totally adrift -as the situation in Taiwan in August 2022 shows- the political and trading relationships at opposite ends and seemingly at war with each other. ...

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About 25 percent more Hispanics would be eligible to vote in 2016. Hillary Clinton planned early to mobilize the 27 million Hispanic voters in 2016. She had as the person leading her Latino Outreach effort an undocumented woman worker from Peru, who with other women built the organization from the ground up. Often women and their daughters would go from door to door to talk to Hispanic people and could see the anger among Hispanics in states such as Florida about Mr. Trump's statements. Only 48% of Hispanics voted in 2012 compared to 64% for whites, and the campaign was determined to change this and galvanize the Hispanic vote for Hillary in the way this had been done for black people during the Obama campaigns in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton also changed her campaign theme to support immigration and a path to citizenship in a way that even president Obama had not done. Hillary was critical of Mr. Obama's deportation policy and the breaking up of families. She promised to act on immigration in the first 100 days. By building up a grassroots effort for the Hispanic community,  and also talking to Puerto Ricans who now makeup a large part of the changing demographics in Florida, Clinton was able to energize Latinos to vote in large numbers in 2016. In Florida about 1 million votes had been cast by Hispanics by Nov 6, 2016, out of 6.2 million votes, a 75% increase from 2012. Nevada saw a similar pattern of voting. ...

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An account of the meetings between Speaker Boehner and president Obama in the fiscal cliff negotiations. The WSJ pieced together the flow of the negotiations based on interviews with aides and lawmakers. There is little to show the two sides closer than before the election. If anything the WSJ report concludes the discussions this time left both sides further apart, and the lack of trust in the relations between Republicans and president Obama has worsened. Speaker Boehner asks Obama at one meeting what he gets in return for offering $800 billion in revenues and Obama tells him he gets nothing. At another meeting Obama tells Boehner he is asking Obama to accept Mitt Romney's tax plan and sees no reason to do that. Obama's first offer is for $1.6 trillon in new revenue over 10 years, a permanent increase in the debt ceiling and $400 billion in spending cuts. The Republicans find 25 cents of spending cuts for every dollar in tax increases as simply unacceptable and hold out for $1 in cuts for $1 in new tax revenues. Obama drops down to $1.2 trillion in new revenues and Boehner asks for $100 billion in additional spending cuts. Boehner drops a demand for raising the Medicare eligibility age. Obama raises the tax figure for the Bush tax increases to incomes over $400,000, Boehner proposes $1 million. But no level of trust has been gained in the negotiations. And no rapport established, as at one point Boehner tells Obama the two can just stare at each other or he Boehner could come back. Boehner then proposes to pass Plan B in the House for Bush tax cuts on incomes over $1 million. At that point the president feels the Republicans are not negotiating in good faith and some Republican Congressman in the House say they would not support Plan B. The distrust on all sides is worse than before. In the weeks leading to this in Dec. 2012 a review of oped pages show Democrats and Republicans saying a bad agreement- meaning too much in spending cuts for Democrats and too much in tax increases for Republicans- was worse than the fiscal cliff of automatic cuts, which could be addressed in other ways....

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Winfried Vahland, the VW executive chosen to head the U.S. and Mexico operations by new VW CEO Muller, turns down the position. Vahland is one of the most experienced executives at VW, heading the China operations, and since 2010 in charge of the Skoda operations based in the Czech Republic. This is a setback for VW as it looks for ways to improve the management at all of its operations and make organizational changes.

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Bundesbank President Axel Weber told German lawmakers that Greece may need as much as 80 billon euros to avoid default. He said Greece's situation is deteriorating and "the numbers are changing all the time." Weber is a member of the ECB's governing council and a leading candidate to succeed Trichet as ECB President. So far Greece has 30 billion euros approved by the eurozone countries and 15 billion euros expected from the IMF.

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IMF Director, Christine Lagarde is critical of the action taken by Thomas Jordan, president of the Swiss National Bank on the exchange rate of the Swiss Franc on Jan 14, 2015. She said it came as a surprise. Lagarde said "certainly what is needed is cooperation, collaboration, communication." It appeared to violate a norm among key central bankers to talk about it before moving ahead, and not surprising markets leading to financial instability.

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U.S. Congressional investigation shows the National Highway and Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) missed two opportunities, one in 2007 and another in 2010, to launch formal probes into whether the 2003-2006 Chevrolet Cobalt and the Saturn Ion had a defect leading to non deployment of airbags. In 2007 the head of the NHTSA's defect assessments division emailed other officials in the Office of Defects Investigation recommending an investigation be launched. Yet no action was taken.

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Tushar Morzaria, CFO at Barclays is leading the effort for restructuring of Barclays and its large investmetn banking business. He was hired from JP Morgan Chase, where he was made the finance chief for the investment bank in 2010. Morzaria is the son of Indian immigrants to Britain who left Uganda during the Idi Amin dictatorship. Colleagues at Chase say he has a broader outlook and is able to look beyond the numbers.

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Air pollution concerns are leading China's National Development Reform Commission to set a higher goal for cleaner energy. The NDRC plans a 52 gigawatt increase in installed capacity for green energy in 2013, an increase from 36 gigawatts in 2012. This includes 10 gigawatts for solar energy. Clean energy will take up 57% of additions to installed capacity in 2013, compared to 35% in 2010, according to Tian Miao, an energy anayst at NSBO.

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This Chinese Company BYD is a leading maker of lithium ion cell batteries for cellphones and MP3 players. It will intorduce a plug in hybrid this summer in the Chinese market. This car can travel for 60 miles before the gasoline engine has to kick in The charging time is about 9 hours, in contrast the Chevy Volt is expected to do 40 miles before gasoline kicks in and take 6 hours to charge.

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Early warnings about chatbots. No, it says chatbots are not sentient, they aren't human though AI researchers like to look cool and make believe that chatbots are sentient. To be sentient is to have the ability to perceive and feel things, to have sense impressions, the capacity to have feelings and sensations. It is about putting tons and tons of data into a computer and creating a knowledge base that a computer then accesses in a fraction of a second to make up a response which is called AI generative in the computer person's jargon. It could be nonsense. It can get better as more data is fed into it, and as its mimicking of the data fed into it becomes better, yet it remains not sentient. AI people like to pass this on as sentient but is clearly not, in that sense it is even dangerous and could cause the next crisis if vital tasks are transferred to it and computer experts. This is shown in a Japanese disaster movie on NHK television AI Amok/ AI Collapse by director Yui Irie where AI and AI experts have taken over everything from the prime minister's pacemaker to air and road traffic, and internal security, including the inventor of the AI who is seen as a security risk, leading to disaster in Japan. ...

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Changes that president Biden is making to make certain that students who took out a loan of $30,000 for college do not end up paying for two decades, and be still owing $60,000. WSJ explains that the original student loan law written decades ago does not take into account the realities of today as young people are forced into long repayment plans and still cannot complete payment. President Biden has stated that no student loan borrower would be expected to pay more than 5% of his or her income for student loan payments each month. This helps student borrowers across the country and makes college education affordable. Most Americans have failed to realize the importance of higher education and its affordability for the US economy, the US ability to compete with China, India and the EU, and the damage done to US education by outdated laws. The general failure to support education and its affordability has come at a great cost to the US economy and its strength in the world, similar to the damage done by the neglect of manufacturing and communities across America that depend on good manufacturing jobs. The failures of laissez faire theory under Reagan and it becoming part of exiting culture leading to lack of government support for education, manufacturing, and infrastructure has weakened America and neglected communities across the country. ...

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Paul Krugman in NYT explains the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. He says the bank invested its money in safe Treasury bonds which fell in value with Fed's policy of sharp increase in interest rates to fight inflation. It presented itself as the bank for people in Silicon valley and succeeded more than it imagined possible leading to these investors putting their money at SVB bank. However Krugman points out SVB bank did not put this money from deposits into startups, it put these deposits in safe US Treasury assets. It is Venture Capital that put its money in the startups at Silicon Valley, then panicked and set in motion a bank run that led to $42 billion withdrawals on one day Thursday March 9. These SVB assets have value says Krugman. Over time the government says Krugman will get much of its money back from these Treasury assets of SVB.  Then why the government rescue by president Biden? A bank run of this type undermines confidence in other regional banks affecting the US banking system in a way that is totally unnecessary when the banking system as a whole is safe. In fact the Fed vice chairwoman Lael Brainard understood and made clear these risks says Krugman, and she now heads Biden's national Economic Council.   ...

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Emmanuel Macron faces a challenging situation in  the 2022 second round. He badly needs left wing supporters of Mr. Melenchon who came with one percentage point of right wing Marie Le Pen. Macron had expressed right wing sentiments about immigration and terrorism even more than Le Pen during the year leading upto this election. That this has alienated some left wing supporters is evident in a nIpsos poll for FR24 that shows 30% or about a third of the 22% of the voters that supported former Socialist candidate Jean Luc-Melenchon are likely to vote for Le Pen, who has campaigned on the issue of cost of living and softened her image and position on the European Union. 34% of Melenchon's supporters said they will support Macron and 36% said they are undecided. It is this undecided vote that could make a difference. Add to this the 25% of the voters who did not vote at all and the election depends on who can convince this segment. To reach these voters is Macron's main concern in the 2 weeks before the second round of the election on April 24. Macron says he will campaign hard-"from dawn to dusk, in direct contact with voters." He will have to offer something that convinces working class voters who some see he has humiliated during his first term.  ...

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About the collapse of two banks- Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank Fed vice chairman for financial and banking supervision, Michael Barr, had this to say at a Congressional hearing last week- "I think anytime you have a bank failure like this, bank management clearly failed, supervisors failed, and our regulatory system failed."  The rest of this report looks at changes the Fed can on its own make stricter supervision of banks over $100 billion, action the Biden administration is thinking of taking, and action by the FDIC. The Biden administration does not want to be seen supporting wealthy depositors at Silicon Valley Bank by guaranteeing uninsured deposits as it did. It took this action solely to protect the financial system so that it would not hurt working families. For this reason alone the Biden administration will seek tighter controls of mid sized banks now that the illusion that banks below $250 billion do not pose a risk to the financial system is gone. It will also seek to recover all funds used to support these failed banks from the banks and financial sector that has lobbied for so long for less regulation leading to failure of banks not once in 2009, but again in 2023. This time under the Biden administration the damage is carefully controlled so that it does not affect the American economy and working families. ...

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Without good governance India would fail to meet the aspirations of its youthful population of 1.2 billion people. The prevailing sense of impunity brought the country to an impasse 10 years ago and development of the country to a standstill, says prime minister Modi. Only 15 paise out every rupee reached the final beneficiary of government programs leading to a loss of confidence in government, said one prime minister. At this rate 16 lakh crores rupees out of 27 lakh crores transferred to final beneficiaries and the poor would have been lost, says pm Modi. During the struggle for independence of the 1940's, the drafting of the new constitution, early period after independence with distractions of partition, Mohandas Gandhi, Sardar Patel, Nehru, did not realize that for a period that would stretch from the 1950's for about 70 years almost as long as half of the period of British rule India's institutions would struggle to operate. India's institutions so carefully set up would struggle to operate effectively as political parties turned to state and local funds meant for development to finance their election campaigns. A new culture got entrenched that considered this to be an acceptable way of operating- destroying the chances of development in the world's largest nation and keeping 1.2 billion people in a permanent state of underdeveloped economy.    ...

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This merger is part of a process that happened after 1970 when Penguin Books a national institution in Britain in the war years 1939-1945 was acquired by Pearson Plc, and later sold in 2013  to German publisher Bertelsmann. Penguin became a part of British culture because it sold a million cheap paperbacks at 6 pence in 1939 and continued to provide low cost access to books to all parts of the English speaking world from UK to Asia till the 1960's. The astonishing period of creativity and design of founder Allen Lane ended in 1970 after Pearson Plc focused on profitability and acquisitions. Under this new deal in 2021 a large part of the world publishing industry would come under the control of German publishing house Bertelsmann. Penguin Random House is owned by Bertelsmann and the deal would bring its rival Simon and Schuster under its control. The US Justice Department filed a lawsuit to block it. Attorney General Merrick Garland says- "American authors and consumers will pay the price of this anticompetitive merger- lower advances for authors, and ultimately fewer books and less variety for consumers." Penguin Random House already controls 22% of titles published in the US. The US publishing industry has already seen mergers leading to reduced competition. News Corp. acquired Houghton Mifflin Harcourt in May and merged it into Harper Collins. Largadere Hachette acquired Workman in September. ...

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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This editorial in WSJ says the WHO report on the most likely source of the pathogen for the coronavirus lacks credibility. It says the statement by former CDC head Mr. Redfield is more credible when he said last week, that the "I still think the most likely etiology of the pathogen in Wuhan was from a laboratory." Redfield added that virus transfer to a lab worker is not unusual in such research. Even WHO says it needs more research into the source. This editorial says the Biden administration knows the underlying intelligence and should release it to the public, that it should not accept a whitewash of the whole thing, leaving it as an unknowable. The need to take preventive steps in the future would help the world's population including China and India, the most populous nations in the world with most of the world's population, as well as the  countries in Latin America, North America, Africa, and Europe. Because the brunt of the coronavirus impact was borne by the people of the world preventive action is needed to restore hope for the future. One of the lessons of the crisis is that public and governmental involvement from many countries particularly the leading democracies is essential to restore hope, health cannot be delegated to any organization alone much less the WHO, ...

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The variant first identified in India called the Delta variant is 60% more infectious than the Kent variant found in the UK. The Delta variant is now the dominant variant in the UK. There is concern that this could lead to another wave just as the UK is reopening in the summer. There are over 6000 daily cases in the UK this week. The estimated R number is now 1.00 to 1.2 following the number being 1.00 to 1.1 in the earlier week. A R number over 1.0 suggests greater spread of the coronavirus. An R number of 1.1 suggests the number of cumulative cases is taking off meaning that the UK is at risk of a sudden surge in the coronavirus in June or July 2021. India faced a wave from the new variant's higher rate of infectious spread. leading to a sudden surge in May 2021 to 400,000 daily cases before it was brought down by June 1 to about 100,000 The number of hospitalizations in such a wave is estimated to be higher in UK than the previous waves, requiring the government to be more vigilant today. Restrictions on travel from Portugal are being put in place in UK as a precaution. After repeated waves as a consequence of complacency with the coronavirus the lesson now is to take steps early and take aggressive action in advance. ...

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The exceptional role played by US president Biden in ensuring the recovery of the US economy, reaching both low unemployment and bringing down inflation was made possible by the president's conviction that the bargaining power of labor and its share in the productive wealth of the economy needed to be restored. The chair of the president's Council of Economic Advisers Jared Bernstein points this out in his speech at the Petersen Institute of International Economics. Bernstein points out that the Philips Curve which shows the tradeoff between reducing unemployment and increasing inflation is essentially flat and the president was right to push for full employment at between 3.5-4%. In the post Reagan era America was reduced to trickle down economics as president Biden has said at every State of the Union leading to a situation where workers had lost their bargaining power. See this as a resilience factor R in the economy which if it falls below a certain point leads to the economy operating well below its potential with high unemployment and worker incomes depressed. This strong conviction of the president and the efforts of the Fed chairman Powell have helped America recover from the pandemic faster than Europe, China and other countries, and is opening a path to meet the challenges of the future including infrastructure development and overcoming climate change, and meeting needs in healthcare and education, ease of living. ...

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The amazing story of Katalin Kariko who came to the US from Budapest, Hungary, in 1989 taking a position as research assistant professor at the UPenn Medical School.The work of Katalin Kariko in mRNA vaccine research that led to the discovery of mRNA vaccines was derided at first at Penn leading her work to be shunted to a lab on the outskirts of town and having her pay cut in a demotion, says this WSJ report. It won the Nobel Prize for Medicine in 2023. Universities are not places where new ideas can get a boost when there is much skepticism and constant pressure for research funding on more conventional lines. Less opportunity for experimentation that can lead to new discoveries that revolutionize science and medicine.  Kariko and others working as research assistant professors were shunned at Penn and referred to as "aliens" because inthe interests of research they took lower paid positions. As it turns out Kariko felt liberated during the period of her being demoted, to work even more patiently on the mRNA molecule, one that was more difficult than the DNA molecule most researchers had focused on. This report in WSJ shows a picture of a Budapest street with a large mural of Kariko. Unfortunately few people in her adopted country know about the work of this remarkable scientist to whom is owed so many millions of people's protection with mRNA vaccines. ...

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CBS'S Robert Costa:  What's your suggestion about how she (Kamal Harris) should handle that Republicans are saying she has fumbled the ball on immigration, on border policy? What's the answer for how to define her on herself on that issue? Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer:  The answer is very simple. And that is that Democrats, along with the Biden Harris administration, put together the toughest border policy that would have stopped the flow from the border that we've seen in a very long time. In fact, initially was supported by Republicans. So many of the leading Republicans said, "this is tough, we're all for it," (McConnell, Lankford, others). And then all of a sudden, President Trump says it, he said it explicitly. He said, "I don't want them to solve the problem, I want chaos at the border so I can run on it with the election." We're happy to bring that up. And case after case, when we bring that up, the voters side with us, not with their policies. We were willing to fix the border. Trump and his Republican minions said, don't fix it, we want chaos for political purposes. Who do you think's going to win the argument? ...

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The expected EU turnout in 2024 is at a high of 68 percent. Over the years since its formation the early enthusiasm and vision was replaced by dry directives issued by bureaucrats in Brussels leading to lethargy. 1979's 62 percent voter turnout contrasts with 2014's 48% voter turnout. Boris Johnson, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have each in their way created new surge of interest in EU and the parliament in Strasbourg, says Caroline Gruyter from her conversations in France, Switzerland, Netherlands, Czech Republic. Today 74% of EU citizens polled say they support the European Union. Similar numbers even in the UK as Labor party is about to come back in a big way.  What happened? The war in Ukraine, Russia and NATO, US and NATO, the UK drift back to EU in sentiment, Italy's conservative parties called Right wing are supporting the EU under Meloni. Another reason for the sense of EU coming back to life comes from my visit to Germany, where after decades of disinvestment in infrastructure the rail station in Frankfurt is being rebuilt and new infrastructure is being built all over the city. Posters all over Frankfurt for EU parliament elections show a new spirit for Respect for workers, working families, and a sense that the FDP, SPD, CDU and Greens can take the decisions to give new vigor to the German democratic process.    ...