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The impact on stock markets around the world of the protests in Egypt. The Nikkei fell 1.5%, the Kospi index fell 1.5%, on Jan 31, and the Dow Jones average fell 166 points on Friday Jan 28, 2011. Oil prices increased by 3.7% to $89.34 during the week of protests in Egypt. The Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington estimates a 5% increase in the price of oil takes away $5 billion dollars from the US economy. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, says that a boxer rarely gets knocked out by a punch he is expecting, and this could be what starts a decline after the market fought off fears from sovereign debt crises in Europe and interest rate increases in China. What makes Egypt significant? The Suez Canal is ony a 1000 feet wide at the narrowest point. Supertankers carrying oil do not pass through the canal but rely on smaller vessels and on the Sumed pipeline. About 2.9 million barrels of oil a day, 2.6% of global oil production passed though the Suez Canal and the pipeline according to the US Energy Department. Because prices are determined at the margin this is a lot of oil, especially considering the global spare production capacity is only 2.5 millon barrels a day. The immediate impact would be on Europe which gets much of the oil refined in the Middle East and shipped using the canal and pipeline. Egypt is also a major importer of wheat, importing more wheat than any other country. Any increase in imports to placate consumers would increase wheat prices. Already wheat prices are impacted by floods in Australia, a long drought in Argentina, and forest fires in Russia. Inflationary impact of rising food prices has been felt in China, India and other countries....

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The Biden vaccination target of 70% of American adults at least partially vaccinated with one dose by July 4, 2021 remains elusive as vaccination rates have dropped. From a high of 2 million a day vaccinations have dropped to 400,000 a day during the first week of June 2021. Vaccination skepticism particularly in the south and western part of the US is making it harder to vaccinate the rest of the US population. This poses increasing risks as the new variants of the virus such as the Delta variant found in India, and now the most widely prevalent strain of virus in the UK, remain a serious problem. The unvaccinated population in the US is too large for any degree of safety in numbers vaccinated. Consider that at the press briefing given by the White House on June 3, 2021, only 28 states out of 51 states have fully vaccinated 50% or more of their population. There is a large variation between different states with states in the south such as Mississippi as low as 34% at least one dose and a similar situation in Alabama. In Arkansas, Georgia, Carolinas, and Louisiana  it is higher at about 50% with at least one dose. Even these figures are deceiving as in some parishes in Louisiana only 20% have even one dose. Studies show that only after the second dose are enough antibodies released to protect well against coronavirus. This is why vaccine experts at Baylor College of Medicine cited in NYT foresee a second wave in the southern US because of the South so underachieving in the case of vaccination.  ...

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AARP shows 29 million Americans working and taking care of older parents. Many work 40 hours a week and work an additional 20 hours helping elderly parents. About six out of ten people of this 29 million work full time. In 2024 a lot more people are living longer and older people prefer staying in their own homes and need help from family members. A simple fall or a cancer diagnosis can lead to long hospital stay, months of treatment, and worrying for family members. Company benefits in 2024 do not include senior or eldercare support or even accomodating employees caring for their parents. In America today federal and state laws do not protect people caring for elderly parents from discrimination in the workplace. Consider how this is affecting companies, as about one third who are caregivers say they are going to leave, and half of the employees leaving are senior manager and executives with much experience. This comes to about 5 million senior managers and executives that American industry can ill afford to lose as it competes with China, India and Europe. About half of all companies are making this a priority in 2024, according to Care.com. Citigroup added 2 weeks of paid leave to care for immediate family member. Companies allow employees to add older parents on their health insurance. These benefits are being added to maternity and paternity leave. The fact that Congress and state legislatures have failed to enact laws protecting caregivers is one more reason for the discontent and unrest in the US after the pandemic. ...

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This unbelievable story from Berlin, Germany, where dozens of police officers are injured and three hospitalized trying to disperse 20,000 people gathered to protest anti-pandemic measures. 130 people had to be arrested. 1100 officers had to be deployed to monitor the gathering even though there is a spike in cases in Germany. The gathering was done with people not wearing masks and not social distancing. Berlin mayor Michael Muller said they risked the health of other people. The gathering was a mixture of hard left and hard right supporters in a strange mix with shouting "we are the second wave" as the protest reached the Brandenburg Gate. Police had to use loudspeakers to get people to leave the area. And launched legal action for "non-respect of hygiene rules." Some officers were hit by shards of glass.

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There is deep distrust of the Japanese government on the safety of nuclear reactors and a sense that the regulatory system has failed. In the most recent development, Osaka's mayor Toru Hashimoto, is withholding local approval for starting up 2 nuclear reactors at the Ohi plant, near Osaka. The 2 reactors passed simulated stress tests and were expected to be up and running, but public mistrust of the tests led to Hashimoto holding back on approval. Hashimoto was able to do this because Osaka is the largest shareholder in Kansai Electric Power. Hashimoto says he not against nuclear power, but against the top down regulatory system which works closley with power plant companies to protect their interests, with very little transparency on decisions and methods.

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Revival of the old city of Diriyah in Riyadh province, Saudi Arabia, where Imam Wahhab and Muhammad ibn Saud, the original chief from the Saud family have their origins. With the help of Imam Wahhab, this tribal chief united the Arabian peninsula in 1744, till the fall to the Ottomans in 1818, lasting 74 years. U.S. president Franklin Roosevelt helped set up Ibn Saud of the original Saud family, as monarch of a new Saudi state in 1932, when it was possible for the French, British and Americans to setup states in the Middle East region to protect their interests. Ibn Saud's son is the current King Salman, who plans to set up a museum complex in Diriyah, and visits the place on weekends.

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Davies points out the dire situation of Greece's banks as the negotiations are called off and Greece calls for a referendum on July 5, 2015. In the week before the referendum if Greeks take out the 60 euros a day that they are permitted to withdraw from banks, the banks may have barely enough cash for the 3.5 billion dollars needed to do this. Only the emergency funding line from the ECB stands between Greece and the collapse of its financial system, says Davies. He says full banking union with depositors insurance, resolution authority, and other changes are needed to protect weaker banks in the eurozone. Contagion effects could affect Portugal's Banco Commercial Portugues, Italy's Monte de Paschi, and Austria's Raiffieisen bank, says Davies.

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Bernanke in reflections on his policies for quantitative easing in response to the 2008 financial crisis, says the policies were intended to protect Main Street and the average American, even though this is not readily apparent. He says the policies did not lead to inflation as critics have stated, and one has only to look at today's inflation statistics to know this- referring critics to the government CPI report in Jan 2014 that consumer prices went up by 1.5% in 2013 and less than 2% for 2012. Bernanke says he hopes he took the right actions, and still retains the conviction that the American economy will recover losses from the 2008 financial crisis- even though the answers to this questions won't be seen for some time.

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This piece in the Economist provides useful insights in the efforts to repair relations between Japan and China by October 2014, following a series of incidents and disputes. Some experts say China's slowing economy is one reason for mending relations. Japanese direct investment in China has declined sharply by over 40% in 2014 compared to 2013. In 2013 there was a decline following other incidents, and Japanese business has experienced difficulties in operating in China. As a result there is a shift to other parts of Asia including Vietnam and India, that is underway. Volatile relations with China has given the Japanese business and diplomatic community pause about the future of Japanese business investments in China. This is also the background as Chinese Communist leaders face a critical decision on how to handle the protests in Hong Kong over universal suffrage- errors will only add to the image of a China volatile in its relations with the outside world. It is not just North America and Europe, China has to interact with, it has to interact with Japan, Australia, S. Korea, South East Asian nations (Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines), and India, all these countries not sure what China's intentions are after territorial waters or land disputes. Along with Indonesia and Bangladesh, this is a region with about twice the population of China and representing most of Asia, a fact usually omitted as western business rushed into the Chinese market. Chinese Communist leaders are faced with huge challenges and success in the next phase of development, and it is by no means certain under a ossified system of government which cannot change with the times, as technology and foreign investment will now be much more critical drivers of development than in the first phase. ...

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A plan appears to have been put in place by the U.S. and the European Union countries to strengthen the American position in negotiations with Iran underway in Istanbul. The impact on oil prices and on U.S. and E.U. growth as a consequence of higher oil prices, especially when the eurozone countries faced lowed growth, was one of the ways Iran hope to blunt the tightening of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program. It now appears from information released by the International Energy Agency that a plan was implemented by the Saudis in recent months to build up reserve supplies. At the same time a similiar effort was being implemented to increase production in Iraq and Libya so that it would add to reserves added by the Saudis. Daily output from OPEC countries increased by about 1.4 millon barrels in the Sept 2011- March 2012 period, as the confrontation with Iran took shape with increasing pressure using sanctions on Iranian oil, according to the IEA. Of this 1.4 million barrels a day increase, one third is from the Saudis and the rest from Iraq and Libya, according to IEA. In March 2012, OPEC oil production increased by 135,000 barrels a day to 31.4 million barrels, mostly from higher output in Iraq. The Saudis have filled up domestic oil inventories and placed an additional 10 million barrels of oil in storage close to markets in Europe and Japan. This suggests that this was part of a quietly implemented plan in cooperation with the U.S. and the EU countries to increase the effectiveness of sanctions and protect global oil supplies from disruptions; even as the U.S. pressured Japan, S. Korea, India and other countries to reduce purchases of Iranian oil. The economies of India, the EU and other countries were already beginning to feel the impact of higher oil prices in the 1st quarter of 2012....

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US president Biden authorizes $350 million in immediate military assistance to Ukraine. Western leaders now believe that NATO countries are at risk if they do not help stop the invasion, as it now appears that Russia seeks to restore a sphere of influence across Eastern Europe that existed under the Soviet Union. In 1956 Soviet tanks entered Budapest, Hungary. A situation reminiscent of that in Hungary is now taking place in Ukraine in 2022. Earlier the Russian view of Ukraine neutrality was accepted by western leaders- the situation has changed during the last week, as it is now perceived that Russia seeks to change the situation in Eastern Europe. This completely alters western Europe's and America's view of the situation in Ukraine. All this has happened in a matter of days, and in a few weeks. On the Russian side the invasion is not popular with street protests in Moscow and people on the street skeptical about the invasion and its objectives. The view is beginning to emerge that this invasion only breaks the fraternal ties between the Belarus, Ukrainian and Russian peoples that have existed for centuries. In this sense the politics and governments of the present are not relevant as much as the shared history. Ironically it is this shared history that Mr. Putin seemed to want to assert. Yet it ignored the fact that Ukraine also has a shared history with Poland and the Baltic countries and the desire for a different system of government is common to all the people's of the world. Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia and India; UK and Scotland or Ireland; Sweden, Norway and Denmark, Canada, Britain and the US; Hungary, Austria and Germany; all have a shared history yet the people in each country at different periods of history have made their own choices and decided what they would do as independent countries.  ...

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The importance of not letting small dairy farms close all over the northeastern United States, including dairy farms in New York, Vermont and Maine, is shown here in NYT. Some of these farms go back to 1772  over many generations. Dairy farming is hard work and the family farms with each less than 100 cows are not just dairy farms but a part of New England and North East culture, heritage, and landscape. Ensuring that milk processing facilities exist for organic dairy farms in their regional area is important now that Horizon is shifting to the western states such as Colorado and California for its organic milk pasteurization pickup and processing.  French television TVMonde shows in a documentary how small family owned Swiss dairy farms struggled for years at low milk prices of 75 centimes per liter and were able to get 1 Swiss Franc per liter after many protests. Dairy farms are an important part of the culture, heritage and landscape of Switzerland. By getting a Fair Milk label and direct payments from the government small dairy farms in the Swiss countryside are able to pass on the farm to the next generation. Similar action is needed in the US as farms with 500 cows called factory farms in Colorado and Texas are putting additional stress on family owned farms with less than 100 cows in the northeastern US. The rule for pasture is key to having organic label yet this report in NYT cites Maine agriculture commissioner that this is not rigorously applied for these factory farms in the western states, and other rules for classifying which cows are organic are also not rigorously applied. Following the pandemic there needs to be increased awareness of the importance of keeping small dairy farms operating and being passed on to a new generation of young farmers, men and women, with the encouragement and support of state and federal government in the US. ...

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A small group of advisers and Macon including Nicholas Sarkozy of the Les Republicains voted to have new elections. Les Republicains governed France under presidents De Gaulle and some of De Gaulle administration members Pompidou, Giscard and Sarkozy. Sarkozy was seen as aloof and was succeeded by the Socialist party's Francois Hollande. At that point in 2017 at the end of Hollande's term the Socialists failed to take up working class families issues, and it marked the beginning of the National Rally of Jean and Marine Le Pen gaining worker support. Macron was a minister in the Hollande government who detected an opportunity in the loss of support for both Sarkozy's Les Republicains and Hollande's Socialists. He set up his own movement for renewal of France saying France needed newer people than the old administrations and got an infusion of support from young people. Yet Macron lacked a specific program to get back the voter support of working class families as he implemented policy on climate without addressing concerns of cost of living leading to yellow vest protests. He was reelected im a close election with a challenge from National Rally 58% to 42% in second round after having only 5% point margin over Le Pen in first round, with help from the left vote. Macron spent the first two years of second term fighting the unions and labor over pension reform, when his measures failed to pass the Assembly he used executive action. As a result support in small towns and other parts of France has shifted to National Rally, with the immigration issue adding to support and young people frustrated by Macron not tackling key issues of working class people decided to shift to the National Rally and to Melenchon left party, and to Socialist parties. As Macron is closely allied with Les Republicains ideology he is looking for away to rebuild the LR and his EN Marche as an alternative in 2027 presidential elections. ...

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As Russia makes gains in the whole Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine the UK approves use of its long range missiles inside Russia. Biden is on the verge of making a similar decision as Iran sends long range ballistic missiles to Russia according to reports in NYT. Use of American long range missiles is not expected to affect Russia's overall military position in the Donetsk region in the east. The US and president Biden has only reluctantly provided support for use of US weapons systems to not risk escalating the war. Even artillery on the Russian side was off the list of approved use till Russia used it in Kharkiv border region at which point it was approved. Russians see Kiev as the origin of the Russian State in the 1400's, and eastern region of Donetsk as Russian if western Ukraine seeks to join NATO and EU. Britain has opposed Russia since 1750 as it saw Russia as the threat to an Empire it was building in South Asia, in India that financially supported its Empire worldwide. Britain has a long history of engaging Russia in conflict to protect British trade interests and expand its imperial influence as in the Crimean War fought in 1850's against Russia with the French to gain control of the Ottoman Empire and its Arab states for its trade and imperial interests. Republicans other than Mr. Trump and his supporters are for stronger support to Ukraine following US policy of opposing invasion to achieve military goals since 1900 against the Japanese in China and the Vietnam War was fought on the same basis in the 1960's considering the South Vietnamese state as an independent republic, just  invaded by the north, by North Vietnam, just as the US had done in the Korean War between North and South Korea. In the Vietnam War nationalism played apart with the Vietnamese nationalism prevailing by 1970.   ...

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Tether is a cryptocurrency based out of the Virgin Islands that is pegged to the dollar 1:1. It has $120 billion in assets mostly safe US Treasury bills, and gold, bitcoin. It made $6.2 billion in profit for its owners more than Black Rock largest American asset manager fund. What does this mean? It offers an outlet for trade in oil for Russia and other countries such as Venezuela. At the same time it is useful to people in countries with high inflation such as Argentina and Turkey  where people use it to protect their assets from inflation erosion. When its use is widespread this also results in diversion of funds away from the Treasury as in Venezuela where an oil minister was toppled, says this WSJ report. And at the same time it gives protection to Venezuelans from extreme inflation. How it works- Tether Holdings issues virtual coins to a select number of direct customers, mostly trading firms, who wire real world dollars in exchange for Tether.  Tether buys US Treasury bills with these dollars to back Tether's value. Who runs Tether? Tether's cofounders included a plastic surgeon Giancarlo Devasini. All co-founders sold out to Devasini, who runs it from an enclave in southern coast of France. The company was founded in 2014. Interest was slim in a stable token backed by US Treasury bills. Then in 2020-21 bull run in the stock market traders started using it to buy and sell out of risky bets. It's market capitalization exploded from $4 billion to about $80 billion.  Tether says it avoids illicit transactions. WSJ report says 2713 wallets or about $1.2 billion were blacklisted, this out of $153 billion provided by Tether to its 2 popular blockchains. Rest of the funds already sent on, says WSJ. ...

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Does the ICC, the International Criminal court have jurisdiction over US policy in the Western Hemisphere? The ICC was founded in 1998 with the Rome Statute which was signed by US president Clinton but never ratified. President Bush unsigned for the US and Congress passed the ASPCA American Servicemen's Protection Act to protect Americans in the armed forces from prosecution by ICC. The US sees the ICC as infringing on its sovereignty. As most UN institutions with members from 125 (ICC) or 193 countries (UN) the tendency or bias is to be critical of the US in a "anti-imperialist" sense and for European states that practiced colonialism to also have the same tendencies. For instance the Monroe Doctrine was to keep European colonial powers out of the western hemisphere, out of Latin America, so that institutions modeled on the US and the UK including democratic representation, courts and rule of law could thrive. In today's context it is for the US to keep drug trafficking gangs and crime out of the western hemisphere. The ICC easily ignores the lack of rule of law, drug trafficking, and millions of of refugees, in favor of single incidents where violation has not caused massive harm to tens of millions of people and enormous deaths such as the Mexican drug trafficking that has cost more lives from fentanyl than the Korean, Vietnam and World War 1 combined.  In fact without the US and the UK on which US institutions are modeled, much of the framework of civil liberties, rule of law, independent court, democratic representation would be lost.  The ICC is part of institutions that are answerable to no one and made up of the many independent states emerging from the colonialism of Europeans in the 20th century that have little experience in such institutions that are with science and industry the achievements of the modern world, and in many cases these new and numerous states are proof of egregious violations. It took many centuries for the UK to develop these institutions from the 16th century and the US from the 18th century, and it is American and UK institutions that are the foundations for protecting the rights of citizens and of the people in the modern world. ...

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DW.com says Greenland has some of the largest mineral deposits in world. Greenland is an island in the Arctic region that was first extensively explored by US Admiral Perry in the 1890's. In 1867 it was a planned American acquistion of Seward with the Alaska Purchase. Harry Truman planned acquisition of Greenland in 1947 after the War. The Nazis had planned to use it in the War.  Yet the BBC, Wash Post, NYT, and other media simply ignore this and take what Denmark has to say and present Denmark's view as something thought up at the White House. Clearly Denmark was a colonial power and acquired this territory totally averse to the interests of local population of tribes in the period since 1800. It acquired it in negotiations with colonial powers including Britain, Sweden, and Norway through the Treaty of Kiel in 1800 during the Napoleonic Wars. There is no legal basis for Denmark's colonization of Greenland. Germany and Britain understand this for whom the main interest lies in US being able to protect the eastern seaboard of the US from hostile nations who would also be hostile to Europe. Denmark's role in this is zero and it is totally useless for Denmark. It has less than the size of the NYC police department in Greenland and the population of Greenland would easily fit into a baseball stadium in the US. The US Navy with Adm. Perry discovered the North of Greenland from the southern part by dog sleds for the first time in the 1890's. It is hundreds of times the size of Denmark and covers the eastern seaboard of the US essential to US security since its founding- it is of no value to Denmark as Truman's Commanders in Chief pointed out in 1947, when after Seward in 1867 US moved to acquire it. Climate change and loss of 140 billion tons of ice over decades means it is becoming a navigable waterway- and poses risks for the security of the US requiring the US to take action in the interests of both the US and Europe, on which Denmark has ineptly chosen to misrepresent or obscure the facts as the facts can easily be researched. ...

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Stephens says the lack of swift military action to protect the U.S. consulate in Benghazi by all means available was not undertaken by President Obama from Wall Street Journal accounts of what happened. The reason given was not to violate Libya's sovereignty, instead an effort was made by the State Department to get the Libyan government to send reinforcements. This was the situation at 5 pm on Sept 11, in an Oval Office meeting, when news of the attack on the consulate reached President Obama. A suggestion was made according to WSJ reports for U.S. planes to fly in from the closest airbase to scare away the attackers but was not adopted. The Obama adminstration was slow to act decisively in the struggle for freedom from the Gaddafi dictatorship and agreed to support the French-British effort after the war was underway for some time. This is likely to have left the U.S. with a lack of sufficient intelligence on the ground about the movement of remnants of Gaddafi's army, mercenaries from Mali, and terrorist groups, which are suspected of involvement in the attack, and which had threatened Ambassador Stevens according to his diary. The U.S. consulate in Benghazi was burned down in a deliberately planned attack and one of America's finest diplomats Stevens lost his life in the attack. ...

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The US has 1 trillion in trade deficits each year and it is completing the destruction of manufacturing in the US. Half of this is with China as China exports through Vietnam and Mexico, third countries, in addition to 295 billion dollars of trade imbalance the US has with China. China, Mexico, Canada and Vietnam are the largest offenders. No country can long endure with such a loss of its manufacturing base. The US Navy itself is in danger without the manufacturing to compete with China in shipbuilding. China has taken up over 50% of shipbuilding, and soon the US Navy will not be able to protect the free world if these types of economists and self serving German or other foreign interests drive a false narrative and the US acts on such false narratives.  Without the US Navy in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans no one is safe, not Germany, not the EU, not India, not Latin America or the rest of Asia and the world.

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Astrid Prange says the movement started by Luther against paying for penalties for sins being paid for by indulgences, and seeing faith as a gift from God, helped the renewal of the church and Christianity. It came at the time of the printing press, touching a chord with people in Germany. Luther was not a revolutionary, as he was conservative and principled, his goal being to go back to the Christian church's origins. Prange says that in this he is typically German. On October 31, 2016, Pope Francis joins Protestants in Lund, Sweden, for the Lutheran World Federation's celebration of 500 years since the Reformation. Luther would have welcomed this, considering what Pope Francis brings to the Catholic world with tolerance, spiritual renewal and reviving the original teachings of the Christian church.