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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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Unilever is facing higher prices for the vegetable oil, such as palm oil it uses for making soap and margarine. It is passing on the costs to consumers. Nestle and Danone SA are passing on the higher prices to consumers. Nestle increased the average wholesale price for all its products by 5.3%. Higher feed costs make it more expensive for Danone to keep cows, raising milk prices and with it prices of yogurt, cheese and other milk products. As a result food inflation is running at 5% in the USA and prices are higher in Europe and in other parts of the world. Because of the increasing demand for better nutrition levels and better food in diets in China and India and other parts of the world, and low grain production levels, and the increasing amount of land diverted to other uses, including ethanol production in the USA, there are food shortages and higher prices for corn and other grains.

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The advanced technology on the Noble Bully 1 oil drilling rig in deep waters 140 miles south of New Orleans. It is jointly owned by Shell and Noble Corp. The technological improvements on the rig could only have been imagined a few years ago. A Eiffel tower shaped structure is completely enclosed in the rig compared to open derrick structures used on earlier rigs. The technology includes GPS, wind sensors, motion sensors, hydraulic systems, computer controlled thruster propellers on the bottom of the vessel to drill wells with precision. It can operate in water 8250 feet deep to 12,000 feet with safety upgrades, and upto 40,000 feet. A similiar ship Noble Bully 2 operates on the coastal part of Brazil. A new platform called Olympus will be a tension leg platform floaing on the sea like a cork, held together by tying it to the ocean floor using cables. The project is called the Mars B development. New sensors use seismic technology with devices closer to the ocean floor in the Gulf picking up data. The data is sent to Shell scientists working onshore and produces four dimensional maps of oil reservoirs using computer chips. The cost savings for the smaller structure include less steel and less fuel used, zero toxic emissions, and operating with 160 workers- 40% less workers than previous rig designs. Veteran drillers say its a lot better working environment and lot safer. Chief drillers sit in "drill chairs" and adjust the speed and direction of drill pipes using joy sticks and computer screens. It is this kind of technology that countries like Mexico, Brazil, Argentina and India need to develop their off shore oil fields, creaing new opportunities for oil companies such as Chevron, Shell, BP, Exxon and Total. The new technology equiped drilling ships, platforms and LNG processing ships are a way for Shell to reduce costs and improve capital efficiency, the new focus for CEO Van Beurden in 2014-2015....

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Unilever sales -after excluding acquisitions, disposals and currency effects- were up 7.8% in the 3rd quarter of 2011. Sales in emerging markets were up 13%, and now provide over half of Unilever's business. Unilever achieved these gains through price increases of 5.8% and volume up by 19%. Unilever faces rising costs for oil, palm oil, petrochemicals and plastics. The increase in commoditiy costs added 2.5 billion euros to costs compared to the prior year. To cope with rising costs Unilever is improving packaging, logistics, sourcing and reducing purchasing costs. Unilever's strategy is to selectively increase prices to keep margins from falling.

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A supply chain crisis, shortages of coal and oil are affecting major world economies. The Guardian looks at the economies of Britain, the US, Germany, Russia and Australia. Inflation is above 4% in Germany for the last month. Shortages of workers is affecting most economies. Ports are filled with container ships that have not downloaded their shipments because of a lack of workers. There were a record 10 million job openings in the US mostly in the restaurant and entertainment industries. Low wages have led many to reconsider their careers during the pandemic, a phenomenon called the Great Resignation. Other people have dropped out of the workforce because schools have not reopened and there is a lack of good affordable childcare. The chairman of the US central bank Jerome Powell, says "It is frustrating to acknowledge that people getting vaccinated and getting Delta variant under control remains the most important economic policy we have. It is also frustrating to se the bottlenecks and supply chain problems not getting better- in fact at the margin getting a bit worse." ...

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Mexico's former president Enrique Pena Nieto, 54 years, is being investigated for corruption. The former head of the oil company Pemex  Emilio Lozoya, 45 years, was arrested in February in Spain and is said to be cooperating fully with the authorites. A wide ranging inquiry was ordered by president Lopez Obrador.  Mexico's Attorney General says that Mr. Lozoya testified that he was asked to give two bribes of over 3 million dollars each to Pena's election campaign and to bribe politicians to pass legislation to open up the state sector to private investment. The money was sourced from Odebrecht a Brazilian construction company that paid hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes to build ports, bridges and stadiums all over Latin America. This shows how quickly the reputations of leaders in Latin America have changed from Mexico, Brazil, Chile, Argentina and Peru. In every case it is corruption or mismanagement of the economy or both. The failure to consider the needs of people in Latin America, the hype and the pretense, show how much good sense, wisdom, hard work and honest leadership is needed.   ...

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WSJ Editorial Board looks at the reserves being set aside by banks and oil companies against losses in Russia as the situation in Ukraine worsens in April 2022, and has questions for CEO's that have not made preparations for a similar situation arising in China. Too much is being done on Russia "on the fly." For China 83% of American company CEO's have made no plans for supply chain action for China even after the pandemic hit and after the supply chain chaos from zero covid policies. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup have set aside $3.36 billion for Russia, according to Reuters. Shell says it may take charges of $5 billion to write down Russian assets. Exxon will take a similar charge. WSJ Editorial Board says the situation in China with respect to territorial claims on Taiwan are similar, and asks what preparation is being done for China risks. WSJ's Editorial Board says American CEO's should be calculating their supply chain and investment risk now in the event that there is a conflict in Asia. Some of this foreign investment has shifted it says as foreign direct investment as a share of China's GDP is down to 1.2% in 2020 from as high as 4.6% in 2005, according to the World Bank. Much remains to be done. Yet in 2021 despite the supply chain chaos from China's zero covid policies and rising geopolitical plus trade tensions, 83% of American companies operating in China were not considering or were not in the process of relocating their manufacturing or sourcing out of China, according to a recent American Chamber of Commerce in China business-climate survey. A figure that is the same as in 2019, a sign of complacency says the WSJ, one that could be costly, and with Russian write downs today a warning to executives that they should start preparing now for the danger that lies ahead. ...

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This opinion in the DW.com after the selection of ExxonMobil's Rex Tillerson as U.S. Secretary of State, asks whether the exploitation of natural resources and gaining advantages in trade agreements replaces concern for human rights. Still it says after all these concerns Rex Tillerson deserves a fair chance.

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Exxon has increased spending on exploration and production projects to $37 billion per year through 2016, up from $20 billion in 2009, in an effort to reverse declining production. Exxon's 2012 production will be down 5.7% in 2012, compared to 2.9% decline for Chevron, 2.7% decline for BP, and 2.2% increase for Royal Dutch-Shell, according to UBS analysts. A number of new projects, from Indonesia and Papua New Guinea to the deep waters of Angola are planned to start in 2014. Canada is working on the Kearl oil sands processing facility to generate 170,000 barrels a day. The Kizomba project in offshore Angola will give Exxon 40,000 barrels a day. And the Banyu Urip offshore project in Indonesia 75,000 barrels a day as a 45% owner. Exxon estimates are that these and other projects could increase production by about 880,000 barrels a day, or 22% of current daily output after 2014. The cost of completing projects is going up. The Kearl oil sands project is now estimated to cost $19 billion, an increase of 21% from previous estimates....

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India's GST tax collections - which finance infrastructure -reach the 1.40 lakh crore mark  (about $20 billion) for 3 months in a row in 2022. Increase in tax compliance culture, audit analytics, and actions against tax evaders, helped increase GST revenue collections. Revenues from import of goods and revenues from domestic transactions were 44% higher than the same month in the prior year. The increased economic activity and creating tax compliance culture are good indicators for economic growth in addition to the GDP numbers showing about 8% growth in 2021, the highest in the world surpassing China by a wide margin.  The growth slowed to about 4% increase in GDP in the 1st quarter yet the events of the first quarter such as the war in Ukraine increasing food and oil prices, depressing economic activity, have some other indicators unique to India that are entirely positive and hold promise for a surge in economic growth in this decade to 2030. With the pandemic years 2020-2021 pointing to shift in supply chains of US and Germany away from China towards India and other Asian nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine with support of China will only make this shift move faster. At a time when Indian logistics and infrastructure improvements under the PM's Gati Shakti Master Plan will create the right conditions for massive foreign investment in the Indian economy. ...

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Biden's address to Congress after three years of the pandemic marks a turning point for America like Lincoln in 1962 and FDR in 1933. As Biden surveys the damage done to the country not just by Covid loss of 1 million lives, he sees the closing of factories and abandoning of communities that depended on them all over America, abandoned by administrations of either party. Which has led to a loss of faith in the fairness of the system and of democracy itself.  "And two years ago democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. And today though bruised, it remains unbowed and unbroken. . . That's always been my vision for this country, and I know its many of yours. To restore the soul of this nation. To rebuild the backbone of America, America's middle class." Biden sees a complete rebuilding of America to bring back manufacturing, restore American leadership in manufacturing. And invest three hundred billion dollars for the effort that will create jobs and new opportunities.  "For decades, the middle class has been hollowing out, and more than- and no one administration, but for a long time. Too many good paying manufacturing jobs moved overseas. Factories closed down. Once thriving cities and towns that many of you represent became shadows of what they used to be. And along the way, something else we lost. Pride, our sense of self-worth. I ran for president to fundamentally change things, to make sure our economy works for everyone so we can all feel that pride in what we do. To build an economy from the bottom up, not from the top down. Because when the middle class does well, the poor have a ladder up, and the wealthy still do very well. We all do well." "Folks I've been criticized for saying this, but I am not changing my view. We're going to make sure the supply chain for America begins in America. The supply chain begins in America." "And when we do these projects- and again I get criticized for it but I am making no excuses for it- we're going to buy American. We're going to buy American. Folks, and it's totally consistent with international trade rules. Buy American has been the rule since 1933. But for too long, past administrations, Democratic and Republican, have fought to get around it. Not anymore. . . Folks my economic plan is about investing in places and people that have been forgotten. So many of you listening to me tonight, I know you feel it. So many of you felt simply that you've been forgotten. Amid the economic upheaval of the last four decades, too many people have been left behind and treated like they're invisible."   ...

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On his last full day in office president Biden says at a church in Charleston, North Carolina-

“We know the struggle for redeeming the soul of this nation is difficult and ongoing. The distance is short between peril and possibility. But faith — faith teaches us the America of our dreams is always closer than we think.”

We must hold on to hope. We must stay engaged. Must always keep the faith in a better day to come. I’m not going anywhere. I’m not kidding.”

(Biden is 82 years, DJT 78 years, Senator Bernie Sanders 82 years, and Senator Chuck Grassley, chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee 91 years).

“I’ve always heard before, ‘We’ve come too far from where we started.  Nobody told me the road would be easy.’ I don’t believe — I don’t believe He brought me this far to leave me."

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China is slowing infrastructure projects after loaning $30 billion to Venezuela. As Venezuela's economy declined under Maduro Venezuela is paying this off with oil exports in what is called a creditor trap. Both Russia and China are intent on trade with the US, Russia to open up business and trade and China to preserve it's trading and business relationship for its exports at a difficult time for it's economy. This tacitly preserves the idea of US direction in a beneficial way for the western hemisphere that was part of the message in 1823 by president Monroe to Congress. In the Mexican War, through Manifest Destiny during the administration of James Polk in 1843 this was still the accepted idea when Ulysses Grant a future president and civil war general on the side of Lincoln fought in that war. This brought slavery free, Spanish feudalism free, democratic processes and modernized economies to California, New Mexico, Utah and Colorado, much of the West and the Pacific shoreline. Russia hopes to get the US to accept it's aspirations to be a modern Northern power in Europe. The US DJT Republican administration has shown it's respect for Russia in its zone of influence, with it's main objection to Russia in Ukraine being the massive invasion of a neighboring country. When compared to Mexico it was the US replacing the Spanish who had invaded the Aztec tribes in Mexico setting up feudal regimes, not the US invading a neighboring country. The European Union and Germany now bear the burden of defending Western Europe as a European power. The situation is similar in Asia where China has it's area of influence and India, Japan, Australia as Asian powers sharing zones of influence in Asia with China, so that the US can maintain good relations with China including fair trade that brings back it's manufacturing. The US would continue to support Taiwan as an independent country. This balance can ensure peace in the Americas, Europe and Asia as nations modernize and choose better governance under governments that relate to their history and geography, as opposed to Communist and anti-communist or democratic or anti-democratic, when they meet the aspirations of their people.   ...

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Comments in the report on the settlement with BP of the U.S Justice Department for pipe line leaks and a refinery fire as well as a violations by BP energy traders to manipulate the propane market. Interesting comments about the background of Tom Hayward and Sir Browne his predecessor, and about how one started out as a geologist on a oil rig in 1982, was exploration manager in Colombia and headed up th BP Venezuela, before becoming head of BP Exploration and Production. That Tony Hayward was known as the turtle, a term for managers being prepared for leadership, and Sir Browne as the sun king inside BP, is revealing, as it says much about the 2 leaders. Hayward having started out on an oil rig is more hands on and mixes easily with workers. Hayward has given himself 18 months to clear the redundant layers of management to bring him closer to operations at BP, and to fix the maintenance and other problems that led to the pipeline leaks and the refinery fire.

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What happened on September 10, 2024 in the Harris Trump ABC television debate moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis? It is hard to prepare for a debate, things can go wrong, unanticipated situations may arise. 67 million audience, 51 million for Biden Trump last debate, it can stress you out- UNLESS you Trust your authentic self knowing people can see through you if you are not honest forthright and stating it clearly. Harris could say she did approve fracking now as policy action she cast decisive vote for new oil leases. I am from a family like yours struggled with a single parent mother, ("not $400 million platter")I also support small businesses. If the other side is telling lies prolifically, make it clear vigorously yet with it not changing your demeanor and your focus on housing, cost of living, experience for NATO "from the same old playbook" and a warning about the lies to come to prepare the audience very early. Save the time responding to insult to use every moment constructively to define your message for the question at hand which is in addition to the questions put to you which are merely for organization immigration, crime, economy, cost of living, chips and science competition, Ukraine, Afghanistan. Harris said nothing about "Marxist economic professor father, other personal insults just acknowledged "It is a tragedy," don't you think fellow citizens? What would 4 years be like under Harris? (and 4 years under Trump?) Here's my plan for housing, for not starting trade wars while letting chips and science help competitors as Trump.   ...

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Household debt levels declined in the U.S. to 108% in 2014 for ratio of total debt to disposable income, returning to levels in 2003, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. The level reached a high of 130% for the U.S. in 2007. The reached a level exceeding 150% in Canada for 2014, which combined with decline in oil revenues with lower oil prices puts additional stress on the Canadian economy. In Japan the level has declined to 125% in 2014. France is close to the U.S. level, up significantly since 2003. Germany's ratio declined significantly to about 90% in 2014. In the U.S. consumer credit levels were up 2.3% in the 3rd quarter as credit for consumer purchases such as autos and appliances increased. Credit for home mortgages increased only slightly by 0.1%, as demand for new homes remained sluggish and banks imposed stricter standards following the mortgage crisis. U.S. households continued to pay down mortgage and credit card debt.

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Elections in Ghana with 2 technocrats vying for the vote. With new oil discovered in Ghana additional revenues of $10 billion may be generated according to government estimates. Ghana is one of the few African countries with a long history of democratic processes.

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Swiss face 39% tariff by US after "disastrous" call by Swiss president to DJT higher even than proposed 31%. Swiss surplus of $46 billion is the issue in US trade. Swiss say they can't import chocolates from the US, the US thinks they can take in oil and LNG. Swiss have not learnt from the UK, EU and Japan, South Korea which came up with solutions to cut deficits with the US, knowing the US was serious to cut it's trade deficits. India faces the same problem as the Swiss, the need to come up with solutions and think that this is a new system of world trade that replaces the old one that lasted for 50 years and is now gone- call it LPF -a level playing field for all countries.

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Public opinion experts in Israel say President Obama's policy in the Middle East is seen by a majority of Israelis as reflecting a sound judgement. Obama's approval ratings in Israel are up 13 percentage points compared to 2010. It is now 54%, according to December opinion polls by Mr. Telhami, a University of Maryland professor who supervised the surveys on Israeli opinion. Only 19% of Israelis now support Israel attacking Iran's nuclear facilities without U.S. support, according to the University of Maryland survey by Mr. Telhami of 500 people, that was annouced last week.

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The airlines are hit hard by the coronavirus crisis. Reservations have declined as fewer people travel. There is a sense that a recovery will take time, several months. Delta is cutting international capacity by about 25% and domestic flights by 15%. It is also offering voluntary leave options to employees.

Southwest CEO Kelly says the severity of the decline is being felt with loss of $300 million in revenue in March. One piece of good news for airlines that offsets the severe demand decline is the fall in oil prices. American Airlines estimates the cost savings as much as $3 billion. A decade of industry profits have put the airlines in a better position to tackle the crisis. Other cost savings moves are reducing capital expenditures and managing cash flows efficiently.

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The first year of the Modi administration in India brings a sense of moderation to high expectations following the election, considering the many problems that need to be tackled. It also brings some help in the form of lower oil prices coming at a critical time for the Indian economy, which is overly dependent on oil imports. This enabled the government to cut fuel subsidies and control its budget deficit. By April 2015 inflation declined to 4.87%. Foreign direct investment increased by 25% to $28.8 billion in 2014-2015 fiscal year. Major steps include deregulating prices of diesel, petroleum and cooking gas, increasing foreign ownership limits for defense and insurance sectors to 47%, and opening 125 million new bank accounts for poor households. Coalfield leases and telecom spectrum allocations which suffered from lack of transparency and sold at low prices under the previous administration were reallocated in a transparent process.

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The European Union governments are finding it increasingly difficult to salvage the Iran nuclear deal and lifting of sanctions. European governments rejected Iran's 60 day ultimatum to help circumvent U.S. Trump administration sanctions. The U.S. sanctions have already led to Iran's oil export to drop from 2.5 million barrels a day to 1 million. Lost shipments have cost Iran $10 billion hurting its economy. Initially European nations France and Germany hoped to keep the 2015 Iran nuclear deal by working with Iran, but this has become increasingly difficult with the Trump administration increasing sanctions including limiting access to U.S. markets for nations that do not cooperate with U.S. policy. The U.S. pulled out of the Iran nuclear deal and now it looks like the Europeans are faced with a difficult choice in continuing to work with Iran.

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Saudi global forum on oil price issues meets even as differnces emerge inside OPEC with Algeria, Iran and Venezuela opposed to increasing oil supplies and to a unilateral decision by the Saudis to increase production. After the Bush visit the Saudis increased production by 300,000 barrels a day or 3% to 9.45 million barrels a day. The bulk of the unused production capacity of 2 million barrels a day in OPEC is with the Saudis. The Algerians and the Saudis blame the price increases on futures speculation, lack of refining capacity to produce gasoline in the western countries, and geopolitical tension. For the Saudis and the Kuwaitis there is also resentment that they are asked to use their declining oil supplies while the USA is not allowing offshore drilling and drilling inside its borders to the extent that it could. Note that the ordinary Saudis lower and middle classes are not seeing much change in their lives as inflation is high, and the prices of food and other needs is reducing their purchasing power. Much of the oil price windfall is going into large projects to build aluminium and other plants, and to build new cities in the desert for a growing population, which effectively rechannels the money back to western countries who are actively involved in these projects. The projects themselves may produce value but it is still an open question whether this is the best way to invest this money. And the other serious question is whether this will come at the expense of future oil earnings as the world reduces its dependence on oil. The money is also spread very disparately across the Middle East, with neighboring countries like Yemen in southern Arabia without oil revenues suffering serious lack of development. The political structures like Saudi Arabia created after the first world war by western powers, itself may impede a proper distribution of commodity resource revenues across the region....

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Muhammadu Buhari wins the March 2015 presidential election in Nigeria winning 54% of the vote compared to 45% for incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan. The peaceful transition is another first for Africa for the size of a country like Nigeria. Buhari was a military ruler for 20 months following a 1983 coup. This is his fourth try running for president. This time he campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, and anti-terrorism campaign as Boko Haram insurgency is affecting the northeast of the country. He also campaigned for economic development and jobs, as Nigeria is sorely lacking infrastructure development such as road, water, electricity, especially in the Muslim north of the country where Buhari is from. Incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan failed to tackle the problems, and the situation deteriorated in 2014-2015 with the lack of security in the country, as the Boko Haram insurgency affected the northeast. In 2015 oil prices collapsed leading to a sharp depreciation in the value of the Naira, Nigeria's currency, and lower oil revenues, a significant setback....