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Why for some countries base load coal based energy capacity becomes essential with lack of energy storage options. India has realized that without storage simply adding more renewable capacity will pose problems for grid managers. India will add 60 gigawatts of fresh coal powered base load capacity in addition to 21 gigawatts under construction to tackle the problem of intermittency. India now has 40% of installed energy capacity from non fossil sources, rising from 25% in 2013, with solar and wind making up 30%.

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In the middle of the pandemic US Congress approved $190 billion in aid to schools. Of this 20% was to be spent addressing learning loss for children. The pandemic period taking 50 million children out of schools is now seen as the biggest disruption in history of American education. It set student progress in math and education back by two decades and widened the gap between wealthy and poor children. These learning gaps remain unaddressed even as money runs out in 2024.

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Release of 50 hostages and 4 day ceasefire required extraordinary efforts from president Biden and a special group of aides working for the president, says Shear in this NYT report. Biden put pressure on Israel and on Hamas through the emir of Qatar to get agreement on hostage release and ceasefire. As part of the ceasefire 150 Palestinian prisoners will be released. Biden does not want to stop there- he wants to end these wars for good, see his article in The Washington Post.

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British participation in the Afghanistan war with 500 additional troops taking the total to 9500. Gordon Brown reads the names of 35 dead in the House of Commons and listens to the protests of many MP's.

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An August survey by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, shows 40% of the country's manufacturers saying they would shift production and R&D facilities overseas if the yen remains at 85 to the dollar. It has dropped below that. Nissan will make 71% of its cars overseas in 2010, compared to 66% in 2009. Murata Manufacturing plans to double its foreign output to 30% by March 2013. By buying Dutch printer maker Oce NV in March, Canon Inc., saw its overseas output jump to 48% for the first half of 2010. Toyota is on track to produce 57% of its output overseas in 2010 , compared to 48% in 1995. The popular Prius will now be built at a plant in Bangkok, Thailand. Sony did 20% of its television manufacturing in Japan in 2010, it is aiming to do 50% in 2011. As a result Sony showed a profit for the April-June quarter, after 6 straight years of losses. Its also important to note that when inflation is taken into account the yen has not strengthened the way it appears, which reduces domestic pressures to dampen the yen's rise. Tohru Sasaki, head of foreign-exchange research at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. in Tokyo, says that in inflation-adjusted terms, the yen is 30% below the rate it reached in April 1995. U.S. consumer prices have risen by 69% since 1990, in Japan the prices rose only 8.5% during the same period. In inflation adjusted terms the April 1995 exchange rate of 80 yen to the dollar would be 56 yen to the dollar today. Japan's exporters can also benefit from the fact that a large part of Japanese trade is denominated in yen- according to Japan's Ministry of Finance 48% of exports to Asia were paid for in yen in 2009. Like China and Germany, Japan remains highly dependent on exports for growth- which provide two thirds of its growth. The yen's strength increases the outflow of production facilities. In July 2010, 10.3 millon workers were employed in manufacturing in Japan, down from 12 million in 2002. Japan's unemployment rate was 5.6% in 2009....

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A study by ITEP, Institute for Taxes and Economic Policy shows the top 1% pay less in taxes on income than every other group in 42 American states. The poorest fifth pay taxes 60% higher than top 1%. The most regressive states are Florida, Washington, Tennessee, Pennsylvania and Nevada. The tax systems seen as reducing inequality are D.C. Minnesota, New York, Vermont, New Jersey. This happens at a time of growing inequality, high cost of living, and the aftereffects of the pandemic on health and mental health, with high cost of pharmaceuticals with entrenched lobbies, low enrollment of men in colleges with increasing dropouts, the huge burden of student debt on young people.

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The warning light is again on for Greece in the beginning of 2012, as the rapidly deteriorating economy makes a 50% loss by private creditors insufficient to help it meet repayment or refinancing of bonds coming due in 2012. Additional funds will be needed from EU countries unwilling to do this. 14.5 billion euros in Greek bonds come due on March 20, 2012. Greece also faces a public increasingly resistant to austerity cuts. A vountary exchage of existing Greek bonds by private creditors for new bonds at 50% face value and maturing over a longer period will be done under English law. This will be harder to change in the future. Most of the existing bonds were issued under Greek law which can be altered by Greece's parliament.

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India achieves an initial vaccination target of 3 million vaccinations in a single day on March 14, 2021. Much of recent increase is from people over 60 getting vaccinated. For healthcare workers the first priority group about 50% still need to be vaccinated. This sets the stage for taking the vaccination drive to the next level in India. Increasing number of people are now getting their second dose.

Health experts see not vaccinating the vulnerable population fast and wide enough as a missed opportunity. The need has never been greater to vaccinate with better organization, vaccinating staff, and supply of vaccines at locations, so that this beats any second surge.

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The title is misleading as the US president DJT has said on Air Force One on Tuesday -"I don't care what she (Tulsi Gabbard) said, I think they were very close to having them." Most administration officials including the head of Central Command see the risks growing by the week. Here is what Gen. Erik Kurilla told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week- Iran is merely "steps away" from uranium enriched to weapons grade level of 90%. He said if Iran decided to build a nuclear weapon it could have the first 55 pounds of weapons-grade material “in roughly one week and enough for up to 10 nuclear weapons in three weeks.” 

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Saudi Arabia needs current oil price of $60 a barrel to move up to $80 a barrel to balance its national budget. To do this OPEC needs to coordinate its oil production cuts with a group of 10 countries led by Russia that includes Mexico. These countries include countries in the former Soviet Union.  In December cuts of 1.2 million barrels a day were coordinated between the 2 groups to push up oil prices. Now the OPEC cartel plans regular meetings with the Russian led group to push up oil prices. Under a draft document an alliance between the 2 groups would last 3 years and include regular meetings. Earlier Prince Salman led Saudi government proposed replacing OPEC with a new group combining Russia and Saudi Arabia and the other countries in OPEC, yet giving most of the decision making power to Russia and Saudis. This was rejected by Russia and was received poorly by Iraq, Iran  Nigeria, Angola, Algeria. The Iraqis reminded Saudis that OPEC was started in Baghdad. ...

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Blackberry's release of the Blackberry 10 all touch smartphone with the new operating system. Blackberry 10 has a better keyboard than the iPhone and Android phones and can enable users to use the calendar and email at the same time. The delayed launch in the U.S. market to mid March or April, because of the 4-6 weeks time it takes for wireless carriers to conduct rigorous testing, means the marketing push comes before the product is available.

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In a decline in living standards for 9 months since March 2016, the longest stretch since 1975, UK household disposable income declined again in 2017. UK household's disposable income fell 1.4% on the quarter in the first 3 months of 2017, according to the Office of National Statistics. This decline for the third quarter in succession comes from weak wage growth, rising prices, and higher taxes. This also shows that Brexit has certainly not helped the British economy, and provides further evidence that it is hurting the British economy. With increasing uncertainty after the parliamentary elections, a weak government, serious questions about Brexit, further weakening of the annualized growth of 0.9% at this point is not ruled out by experts. One evidence about Brexit's impact- the steep decline in the value of the British pound since the June 23, 2016 Brexit referendum has accelerated inflation in May to 2.9%, significantly surpassing any slight growth in wages. This leaves Britain worse off than before, with the future uncertain under Brexit talks.  ...

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The value of the gold holdings of the Swiss central bank, the Swiss National Bank, declined by 15 billion Swiss Francs ($16.6 billion) in 2013, as the price of gold declined by 28% in 2013. The loss was much more than gains of 3 billion francs in foreign currency positions and 3 billion francs in profit from sales from a fund holding troubled assets. As a result the bank will not pay dividends fro the first time since its founding in 1907. Prices declined as the Fed announced a policy of reversing its bond buying in 2013. In 2008-2012 the U.S. Fed's bond buying efforts pushed up prices of gold holdings as a hedge against inflationary risks. Signs of economic recovery in the U.S. are likely to lead to further price declines. Purchases of gold made after 2010 are now showing losses. The Russian central bank made 30% of all gold purchases since 2010 made by central banks and reported to the IMF.

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Does a 10% reduction in tariffs on China with the October 30 2025 agreement- made in Busan South Korea at APEC meetings- make a difference for companies relocating from China? It only does for smaller companies who are stuck with Chinese sources. Larger American companies prefer to diversify their supply chain and continue to relocate part of their factories to Vietnam, India and other countries knowing that the tariffs game will end up with allies EU, Japan and India in the 10-15% tariff range as a concession to US for putting up with trade disadvantages and job losses 2000-2025. China's will still be at 47% in comparison and the fentanyl issue causing serious questions to be asked by the American people which have not been grasped in China or even in the US by companies and politicians.   Does it affect the urgency and general shift out of China? The fentanyl issue is unlikely to change and it is likely to do lasting damage to China's credibility to a degree that it not clearly understood in China, and even not fully grasped even in the US today because of the sheer size of the number dead- more young Americans dead from fentanyl than in the Korean, Vietnam and First World Wars combined. Other issues are technology that has been transferred without a proper assessment of the importance to national security, the need to shift the manufacturing base back home that US industries have inadvertently and carelessly shifted to China in the disastrous Bush and Obama years 2000-2016, and for the jobs, the wages, and cost of living concerns when supply chains are outside one's control. This article asks the question about tariffs on India and Brazil as being contradictory and showing a lack of consistency in tariffs. India is compared to China with India facing a 50% tariff because of Russian oil purchases, and Brazil a 100% tariff related to treatment of former president Bolsonaro even though US has a trade surplus with Brazil. One expects that at some point India and the US will come to an agreement that lowers the tariffs in a way that was done with the European Union to bring it closer to 10%. China's tariff to be sure is still around 47% dropping from 57% a concession for rare earths and for the upcoming elections and economic concerns not because of policy intent which has not changed on  strong action for fentanyl which is also part of the Appeal to the People in the DJT base.   ...

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In an intervew with WSJ's David Pearson, Tom Enders, CEO of Airbus, points to the changes at Airbus after improvements in governance in 2012, leading to a smaller role for the governments of France and Germany. One is the shift away from Europe. Compared to 2004 when Airbus orders were 50% from Europe, this has dropped to 10% in 2014. Airbus is also staying away from a 623 million euros loan from Germany for the new Airbus A350 widebody jet, because of pressure from the German government to allocate work to German factories. The same policy will be followed in future programs to rely less on government support. Enders does not want to be tied down to certain workshare agreements imposed by governments with the loans. In 2012 Airbus reduced the role of the German and French governments with a large increase in the percentage of shares traded on stock markets. In the past the funding was critical for programs. Today Airbus has 9-10 billion euros on its books because of booming sales.

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Apple had its strongest quarter with 2.3 million Macs sold in the 1st quarter of this year. Revenue increased 43% from the same quarter last year. Apple reported that it had 33.7 million visitors to its 181 stores in the USA up 57% from the same quarter 2007. Apple is onof the few companies with such vigorous customer interest even as consumption throughout the economy is weakening. Amazing achievement of pioneering products and ways of reaching the consumer like its novel store arrangements to appeal to people and attract them.

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Indonesia continues to experience surging growth in consumer spending as more people enter the middle class and buy everything from motorbikes, consumer appliances, mobile phones and other products. It is similiar to the growth in China and India. GDP increased by 6.5%in 2011, and most of the growth comes from consumer spending. Mr. Riady of the Lippo Group says spending is growing to unprecedented levels. About 50 million people in Indonesia are in the middle class out of a population of 250 million- when measured at the level of $3000 per year incomes- and this will grow to 150 million by 2014, according to PT Nomura Indonesia. Another important demographic fact is that the average age of the population is 28.2. Motorcycle sales doubled to 8 million in 2011, twice that of 2006. Mr. Riady of the Lippos Group says its home sales are expected increase to $450 million in 2012, up from $100 million in 2010. Sales at Lippo Groups hypermarkets are expected to go up by 40% in 2012 and sales at its department stores increase by 25%. Lippo Group plans to add 10 new hospitals each year, to the 14 it plans for yearend 2012. Philips Electronics NV says healthcare equipment sales in Indonesia will quadruple in by 2015. This pace exceeds that in India and China for Phillips Healtcare....