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Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel of the University of Pennsylvania gives this early warning on the risks of the sudden U turn in China's zero covid policy to complete reopening. He says the switch from zero covid to population wide immunity via viral spread is coming on too suddenly without preparation. He says China made three mistakes. First, the economic cost of zero covid that dropped growth and created high youth unemployment of over 20%. Second, not procuring Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines with newer technologies. Third, moving to abruptly end the zero covid policy 180 degrees in a sudden move that lacks preparation. Precipitiously ending the zero covid policy for 800 million people means rapid spread says Dr. Emmanuel. He says the key variable the R statistic that measures how many people get infected from one covid patient on average, has moved from 2 to 3 during the early stages of the pandemic to 10 with the omicron variant. Chinese officials report the R to be at 16 in China today, says Dr. Emmanuel. ...

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About one third of cars in China will be electric cars by the end of 2023 from one fourth today. Compare this with 6% of cars being electric in the US. EU, US and Japan are far behind. Toyota has only now ramped up EV's with a new CEO. In the domestic Chinese market 80% of EV's are made by Chinese auto manufacturers, And this could go up to 90%.  This means the share of the Chinese market for German and US manufacturers is actually shrinking. Chinese buyers now prefer Chinese brands over foreign brands. Over 4 decades says Keith Bradsher in NYT the US and European auto manufacturers trained a whole generation of Chinese auto engineers who now work for Chinese electric auto makers. This is one market in which China has built a formidable capacity. This is also a big contribution to cutting emissions from fossil fuel powered cars after China's massive use of fossil fuels over two decades worsening climate change.

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OPEC and Russian oil producers are planning to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels a day for each month through 2022. Demand is increasing with economic recovery and this will lead to higher oil prices. Oil prices are now $80 a barrel in October 2021. Shortages of natural gas and high prices are leading power generation companies to use oil in place of natural gas. This will increase demand for oil by 500,000 barrels a day. Oil export revenue was cut in half to $119 billion for Saudi Arabia in 2020 and Saudis want to see higher prices to make up for lost revenue. OPEC + that includes Russia decided to end a price war during the Trump administration and this time have designed a strategy that will gradually push up prices. In recent years shale oil producers in the US quickly responded to higher prices of oil and increased production. After the pandemic in March 2020 American shale oil producers in 2021 are not increasing production. This gives OPEC+ better ability to set oil prices at higher levels. ...

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This Times leading article on UK government's coronavirus policy says it is inconsistent, and a muddled effort just as the third wave is accelerating. It asks the public to be cautious when going outside and still opens nightclubs with covid passports not required till the end of September. By August cases could reach 100,000 say experts so that the nightclub and bars reopening can only fuel the rise in cases. The British government must be aware that the Netherlands opened nightclubs and bars in June and this led to a sudden jump in cases with 40% of new cases coming from nightclubs.  The policy is undermining public confidence. It is doing this at the same time as it is asking people to self isolate for 10 days. The policy also does not require covid vaccination pass for all events and for shops and restaurants as is being done in France and in other countries on a regional basis as in Germany. 

 

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Suggestions are not to take Fridays off but instead take Mondays off and sometimes break the week with Wednesday off. Fridays off are seen as a drawback because one is seen cramming five days work into four that week. Here a Unilever manager manages her 15 days off and another week that she gets after 18 years service to somehow add the weekends to get 9 days off for a break using 5 vacation days. Taking vacations for less than a week are seen as not productive for reducing stress at work and for getting better sleep. Procrastinating vacations to when work gets slower is not recommended as the answer for many is work never gets slower and you could end up overworking. Planning ahead lets this Unilever manager plan trips that act as rejuvenating experiences up and down the Eastern seaboard after getting her vacation life in order following some misssteps. She shows how with 20 days she could create 50 days vacation during the year adding in public holidays.

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Car buying has changed permanently in 5 ways, says this report in WSJ. There are fewer cars made and fewer cars on manufacturer's and dealer's lots, cars are more expensive these days. Car sales have dropped from 17 million before the pandemic to 13 million and up only to 15 million in 2023 as more cars were made. Carmakers have learned to make money by selling fewer cars concentrating on the pricier cars and reducing cars available in the lower end of price range. Used car prices are up on average to $30,000. New car prices have surged to an average of $47,000 in 2022 and 46,000 in 2023.  New car loans are up from average $562 to $733. The share of leased light vehicles has dropped from 30% to 20% of cars sold and carmakers are offering fewer lease deals as demand is easily fulfilled. With fewer leased cars coming in the dealers have to actually go out and buy them. 

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Krugman points out that the federal tax rate for the top 1% is 34% in 2013, according to the Congressional Budget Office, because president Obama let the high end Bush tax cuts to expire. It is the number to remember says Krugman- 34. In 2008 the figure was 28.2. Under Hillary Clinton the average tax rate for the top 1% would go up by 3.4 percentage points, according to the Tax Policy Center. Some of this would help pay for the tution plan to provide access to the middle class to public universities. Under populist Trump, Krugman points to the elimination of the inheritance tax and tax rates going down substantially, and no such programs to promote the upward mobility that everyone is talking about, and no way to pay for a big infrastructure building effort for growth and jobs- upward mobility that is the focus of every candidate's election campaign including Sanders, Trump in appealing to older white working class families, Clinton, Ryan, Bush, and others in both parties.   ...

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How Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal was able to reduce his heart rate to 100 bpm as he prepared to take the first shot in a penalty shootout in Euro Cup soccer against Slovenia.  It was 170 bpm at the end of extra time. This was after he missed a penalty shot during the game. Ronaldo uses breathing in and breathing out as a way to control his heart rate. Visualization is another technique he uses to be in the best state of mind. Along with hydration, healthy diet and good sleep patterns breathing exercise is a way to reduce the heart rate in moments of stress. Why is it effective? Ronaldo says "It's because it makes you calm." The tracking was recorded by a fitness device called WHOOPS. This breathing in and breathing out is part of the Buddhist practice and an ancient way of maintaining the four forms of mindfulness involving contemplation of the body, of feeling, of mind, and of mind object.

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Biden tells the UN General Assembly he has seen the world since coming to the Senate in 1972 age 29. "Sweeping, aspirational, stubborn, defiant" says WSJ, 52 years later president Biden describes what was overcome- A long drawn war in Vietnam ended with America and Vietnam meeting as friends and partners this year showing there is path forward to reconciliation, to peace. Speaking out agains Apartheid in South Africa in the 1980's and seeing the racist regime fall. Peace in the Balkans and how he held Milosevic accountable for war crimes in the 1990's. And Afghanistan becoming longer than the Vietnam War, four presidents did not end it. "Four American presidents had faced that decision, but I was determined not to leave it to the fifth." How he has hope for the Middle East and Ukraine. “I have hope. It always seems impossible until it is done.”  ...

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Teh Reva Electric Car Company in Bangalore, India. GM's electric version of the Chevy Spark will use Reva's technology. THis electric version will go on sale in India by the end of 2010.

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The meeting of EU leaders in Brussels in Oct. 2012 focusses on the issue of setting up banking supervision for eurozone banks. France pushed hard for setting up the banking supervisory authority by Jan 2013. German chancellor Merkel facing elections in Sept. 2013 pushed for a longer time frame into 2013. Setting up the banking supervision, a basic part of the new eurozone financial architecture, would clear the way for direct aid to Spanish banks. In the end Germany and France agreed to complete the legislation setting up the supervisory system by the end of 2012, and getting the supervisory authority- to be placed under the ECB- operational "over the course of 2013," in Merkel's words.

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By the end of December 2010, 2 million people in the USA are expected to lose their unemployment benefits, and and additional one million by the end of January 2011, according to the National Employment Law Project. This would happen if both parties in Congress fail to agree on extending unemployment benefits. The first week of December marks the expiration of federal programs that have extended unemployment benefits from 34 to 73 weeks beyond the 26 weeks given by the states. Republicans want to cut spending elsewhere to cover the cost. Democrats say $2 is returned for every dollar that goes into unemployment insurance because this money is spent quickly by needy families.

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Lowenstein, author of the book "The End of Wall Street," says that the government should not let firms like Goldman open a table for wagering on corporate failure just as it would not let Caesar's Palace open a table for wagering on corporate failure. He says the first priority for Congress is to end the culture that as he puts it "financializes" every economic result. turning every mortgage or bond issue into a speculation with second level and third level securities. No factories are being financed, no no new products are being launched in this wild speculative frenzy that has overcome Wall Street and endangers the safety of the financial system and its integrity, and character.

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Russia's largest companies in metals like nickel, iron ore and aluminium, may end up in state control by the end of the year as the government is loaning money to these companies. These companies owe billions of dollars to state controlled banks and foreign banks and are heavily in debt. This would be a reversal of something that started with the loans for shares under which tycoons like Potanin got control of state assets in metals companies, in exchange for loans to the state. A company that will combine the assets of Norilsk Nickel, UC Rusal, and OAO Metalloinvest is being formed, with the state taking alarge minority stake at the initial stage.

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The third or booster dose of vaccine is needed to take out the Omicron variant. The UK Health Security Agency analyzed data from 581 Omicron cases and thousands of Delta cases to calculate how effective vaccines such as Pfizer and Astra Zeneca were against the Omicron variant. This early analysis shows a third booster dose prevents around 75% of people from getting any coronavirus symptoms. The double dose of the vaccine however provides good protection against severe coronavirus that needed hospital treatment says the UK Health Security Agency. Of equal concern is the rate of spread of the Omicron variant. Here this BBC report shows graphs of UK National Health Security Agency which show the rate of spread is rapid with cases doubling every 2-3 days. For the UK which on December 10 had about 1265 cases this means says this BBC report that the number of Omicron cases could be well above 100,000 in the UK by the end of December. The BBC graph shows the curve for Omicron cases moving in a close to vertical direction upwards. Reports say the experience in South Africa where the Omicron variant was first detected is similar in pattern causing rapid spread. ...

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Providing an insight for the auto industry and other industries, Nokia has managed its own downturn from a few years ago. Nokia has taken a strong position in emerging markets without letting profit margins sink and keeping the average price of a Nokia cellphone from dropping much. See the groups and links to Motorola's situation. Continued dominance in India and China helped Nokia achieve mobile phone shipments growth of 27%in 2007 over 2006 to reach 133.5 million units. Nokia is also gaining market share increasing it to 40% in the 4th quarter 2007 from 39% in the 3rd quarter. And Nokia is now poised to gain back the market share it lost in the USA in the last few years. It sees the market for mobile phones growing by 10% a year wordwide with strong growth in Asia balancing slower growth in developed countries. Nokia follows the average selling price of mobile phones which suggest the direction the market is taking in price and higher end lower end sales distribution, especially at a time when Nokia competes in price sensitive Asian markets with higher lower end sales distribution. Here the average selling price of Nokia phones dropped from euro 89 in the fourth quarter 2006 to euro 83 in 4th quarter 2007. Nokia is careful to keep introducing new feature laden phones that customers want to keep this average price up. In the 4th quarter 2007 the average price was up from euro 82 in the 3rd quarter to euro 83. Nokia's operating margins in the mobile phone business reflect a surprising result, actually increasing from 17.8% to 25% even as average price is dropping from euro 89 to euro 83? How was this achieved? Some of this is probably from better manufacturing in better locations without compromising quality, moving factories to eastern europe and other places. Nokia plans to close a factory in Germany with 2300 workers and move this to Romania by mid-2008. The increased sale of higher margin multi media phones also helped. Another aspect of Nokia's approach- grasping the fact that extremely high sales were needed to do well in in the lower end of the market at the euro 30 price level. This means that competing in India and China with the high sales volume helps it stay ahead in this lower end. These markets are also interesting in another way, they are fast changing markets with a lot of things happening. Because they are price sensitive there is a lot of competition including from lower end makers in China. Asian markets also have young users who have different usage, lifestyle and trends and Nokia can learn a lot on how to stay abreast of these demographics and other changes. And competing at this level helps you develop the manufacturing knowhow to bring down the cost of the higher end phones with more features. There are crisscross benefits to competing at every price range in different demographics and in different regions, and continually learning and building the people and structures to compete effectively. . Nokia's successful strategies in 2008. ...

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The Russian government said it would ban exports from August 15 to the end of the year. Fires and dehydration from asevere drought in 25 regions of the country is affecting the grain harvest.

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DJT was supported by Shinzo Abe of Japan, also Germany and Italy, only Anglo-Saxon Canada and UK opposed to Russia staying in G-8.  “Barack Obama and a person named Trudeau didn’t want to have Russia in. And I would say that was a mistake because you wouldn’t have a war right now" “Putin speaks to me, he doesn’t speak to anybody else because he was insulted when he got thrown out of the G8.” Just to understand support for DJT and the huge mistake made by Obama and Merkel, Canada, UK prime ministers in 2014 to cancel the G-8 Summit in Sochi, Russia and expel Russia from G-8 in 2014. Did it help solve anything not to have discussions. Hidden in all this was Obama's lack of understanding of role Russia plays in Northern Europe and his mistake to judge Russia on basis of GDP alone as an insignificant power. Shinzo Abe-" Russia's in G-8 discussions is "crucial to tackling multiple crises in the Middle East" Italian and German leaders also felt Russia in G-8 was important to end Cold War atmosphere.  ...

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It shows that Brexit promised cutting migrant flow but its action did just the opposite by removing cooperation with France on fighting migrant trafficking. Could doing away with EU bureaucracy and getting a special degree of autonomy have been accomplished in other ways than Brexit. Was this also the fault of French and German governments under Hollande/Macron and Merkel. The failures to accomplish Brexit goal to cut migrants of Conservatives and now continued failure in 2025 under a Labour government shows the need for European nations to work together. This is what president Macron and prime minister Starmer agreed to on Macron's visit to England on the invitation of King Charles, a pilot program that aims at breaking the migrant boats trafficking model. It will return boat migrants crossing the English Channel from France back to France.  Starmer says- "This is groundbreaking, because this is a scheme intended to break the model, and to make it clear that if you cross in a small boat, then you'll end up where you started. In exchange for every return, a different individual will be allowed to come here safely." The scheme will start in coming weeks.    ...

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Germany's views on DJT Putin meeting in Alaska- proceeding to next step of peace talks with European efforts to ensure a peace that holds. A failure by Ukrainian leaders to build a consensus for the foreign affairs of their country bordered by language and cultural ties to the east but wanting to be open to the west, its unique position after 1990 similar to how Austria navigated German language ties to Germany after 1945 but was outside NATO and carried on with an independent foreign affairs friendly with all sides. The Bush, Obama and Merkel administrations did not pay attention to this and made serious errors, leading to further wrong turns by Ukrainian leaders and Russian leaders for prolonged wars. This led to destabilization in the Middle East, in Latin America, and in Europe and the US around migrant flows, refugees, and local wars, with Russia, US and Europe local regimes acting as adversaries that had not happened in this way in the 1960's -1990 period. This is the mess that DJT and Merz are now having to untangle with the help of countries that suffered huge losses in the war Russia and Ukraine who now may have realized what went wrong and offer their cooperation to end the war. ...

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The British government will end up owning 43% of Lloyds banking group with 3000 branches and 145,000 employees, holding 25% of British consumer banking deposits. The government also owns 60% of the Royal Bank of Scotland.

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With the glitches and delays in Model 3 introduction there is increasing skepticism about Tesla's future. After a credit downgrade analysts say Tesla is living on borrowed time and borrowed money. Its future is uncertain and some analysts question whether it will run out of money by the end of 2018. In March 2017 Tesla's share price went down by about one third.

Previous articles in Lyrarc.com from the WSJ and NYT give more insights on the problems at Tesla. Through all the articles the personality of Elon Musk is evident and it shows an emphasis on being overextended, on presentation over substance. This is particularly evident as the company faces capital needs of about $2 billion, competitors who have surpassed it in technology even though Musk was a pioneer in this field, and lack of credibility in capital markets.