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As the British parliament prepares to vote on Brexit deal put forward by prime minister Theresa May, Joanna Sugden summarizes what is expected as the next step if parliament rejects it.  Why are a faction Conservative members opposed to it? There is the Irish backstop which they oppose. Keeping open the border between the two Irelands- Northern Ireland as part of Britain and Ireland as a EU country is important to preserve peace achieved through the Good Friday Agreement between the Catholic and Protestant communities.May wants to keep the border open. Far right Conservatives see this as keeping Britain connected to the EU in some way which they oppose. They stubbornly hold onto this view. Add to this the opposition from the Remain campaign which sees leaving the EU as bad for Britain's economic future. Some Leave supporters now see the dangers of Brexit, especially leaving with no deal made with the EU. Most of the Labour Party members fall into this group. What happens if parliament rejects May's deal by a small margin? The deal would be renegotiated with the EU to tweak it for more support. What happens if parliament rejects it with a huge margin? This would result in several options. May could call a general election. Britain could have a second referendum on Brexit. Or in a chaotic situation Britain could leave the European Union without a deal altogether, something everyone wants to avoid because of the disruptions it would cause. May is using this risk as  a way to persuade reluctant MP's but it may not work.     ...

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Modi's visit to Moscow and Vienna could be symbolic in setting the stage for a Ukraine peace settlement. Here is why- Austria was occupied by the western powers and the Soviets in 1945. By 1955 Austria sought to become a free country free of occupation zones. It offered its neutrality and asked Indian prime minister Nehru to convey this to the Soviets. Nehru was seen by Austrians as the only person in international affairs who could talk to the Soviets about Austrian neutrality to end occupation. Nehru and his ambassador to Moscow Menon met with Austrian officials. When Russian foreign minister Molotov was approached on the Austrian neutrality proposal by Menon in Moscow Molotov said such neturality could be revoked, Russia needed better assurances. It was the death of Stalin in 1953 that led to the Russian position changing and relaxing its occupation of Austria. Bruno Kreisky, Austrian prime minister, says in his memoirs that the name of Nehru will forever be connected to Austrian neutrality and independence. This led to an independent Austria being formed in July 1955. As Austria accepted entry into the European Union in 1995 and identified with US and EU this part of its history is now forgotten. So it is again that Indira Gandhi in 1983 and Narendra Modi in 2024 visit Vienna. In 2024 Modi can be seen as the only person in international affairs who could take the message of a peace settlement in Ukraine to Russia. For this reason and because of India's call that the war cannot be settled on the battlefield that Modi is stepping into the role that Nehru played in 1955, even though this role is in its early stages. This shows the relationship with Russia has meaning for Europe even as India sees itself as a partner of the US and Europe and Japan. As in 1953 the results are not there, yet as in 1953 this and a changing world situation could finally lead toa breakthrough in this war in Ukraine.   ...

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The Russian government said it would ban exports from August 15 to the end of the year. Fires and dehydration from asevere drought in 25 regions of the country is affecting the grain harvest.

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Peter Navarro points out the problem with textbook economics and concepts such as comparitive advantage. Many economists from elite universities ignored for a long time the distortions in world trade arising from state subsidies as they used textbook economics without looking at what was happening in practice. Even as the U.S. runs a trade deficit of $ 1 billion a day with China such text book economists ignored for too long the advantages of state directed industries and state directed investments in creating distortions in trade patterns, and not creating a level playing field for the U.S. Here Peter Navarro desceibes what he calls afaux comparitive advantage built on high nontariff and other barriers. Auto tariffs of China are 10 times that of the U.S. Other barriers are intrusive licensing requirements and foreign ownership restrictions. With subsidized land and capital, export subsidies, and tax preferences, unfair trade advantages can be gaine d in many industries leaving the U.S. in a disadvantaged position. Mr. Navarro is assistant to the U.S. president on trade and manufacturing policy, and director of the White House National Trade Council. ...

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A survey published in the Journal of the American Medical Association shows mental health related ER visits from 2011 to 2020 rose from 4.8 million to 7.5 million. The proportion of ER visits for mental health issues rose from 7.7 percent to 13.1 percent. Insufficient treatment options and availability of preventative care is leading families to seek help in emergency rooms. The JAMA paper's conclusion: "A dedicated national commitment will be needed to address the gaps."

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This BBC report looks into the culture of overwork that becomes a fast track to burnout. Christina Maslach, professor of psychology at the University of Berkeley, says about this culture- if you take a plant put it in a pot, don't water it, give it lousy soil, and not enough sun, its going to wither away no matter how good it was to begin with. That is how much the workplace environment matters and today most people realize that it has gone in the wrong direction, with subtle messages and wrong signals pushing people into overwork. That is pushed forward by the nature of 24-7 being available with the internet. Only a conscious effort and a knowledge of the false signals in an out of place culture can help one make the right choices, and help life bloom the way it was supposed to be.

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The 100 greatest Ashes cricketers of all time- Warne, Bradman, Bothman, McGrath, and Lillee in top five and names like Benaud Hutton Lindwall. Shown in the Guardian are the pictures of the cricketers 1 to 100. See if you can recognize the names of these famous cricketers.

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German foreign policy is seen as too dependent on China and too China focused, in this conversation of DW.com with experts at German Council on Foreign Affairs (DGAP), European Council on Foreign Relations. Germany had little focus on India and no clear policy to expand ties under Merkel. German foreign policy should take the example of France and other Scandinavian nations in building strong ties with India, says this report. Relations with China of the US and EU countries are strained following trade and technological competition. Merkel continued old policies from 2000-2010 in 2010-2020 even as the EU was losing its technological edge with China. This report says a new German federal government after the upcoming election has to decide what relations it wants to build with India, following the example of France, and Scandinavian nations. And what role the EU will play in India's rapid development in industry,  technology, shipping, transportation, renewable energy, other fields, and opportunities for co-operaton in many fields in 2020-2030. This is also about "Whats at stake for Germany?" in new foreign policy under a new chancellor from SPD or Greens, or some other coalition. And what role Germany will play in the rapid modernization transformation that is now likely to take place in India in the next 10 years. ...

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The global economic map is rapidly redrawing bringing US and Europe closer. The US has imported more goods from Europe this year than from China. In September alone says WSJ Germany exported 50% more goods to the US year over year with the weaker euro increasing the momentum. European FDI foreign direct investment in the US increased by 13.5% in 2021 to $3.2 trillion. US FDI to Europe increased by 10% to $4 trillion. There is a push on both sides of the Atlantic to increase local manufacturing, and to increase trade, and shift supply chains away from the overdependence on China.  

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Stephen Miran is chosen as head of the DJT Council of Economic Advisers. He was senior adviser on economic policy at Treasury during the DJT first term, including economic policy during the Covid pandemic.

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Governor Cuomo's 2011 budget for New York includes year-to-year cuts of $2 billion in spending on healthcare and education. Overall the cuts would reduce year-to-year spending by 2%. For Medicaid and education Cuomo made a deal for a two year appropriation locking in fixed rates of growth, so that budget battles with teachers unions and other interests do not have to be repeated next year.

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German chancellor Scholz is making a 2 day trip to the US to meet president Biden. There is a surge in discussion on looking for a way out of the Ukraine war after meeting between US's Blinken and Russia's Lavrov at the G20 meeting in India. India is pushing for both sides to engage in talks to end the war. Brazil has also offered to mediate to bring an end to the conflict. 

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Why are the French  protesting so strongly against extending the retirement age from 62 to 64. It is a question of French identity, of hard won rights to work and leisure that are seen as defining France. It also affects women differently who have a harder time working longer so that their benefits would be affected. Age discrimination is large in France so that it works against extending the age till the culture changes. Worse it comes at a time of stress for working families, and a cost of living crisis.

NYT says that when this retirement system was introduced after World War II it helped bring a fractured country together. A hard won social and labor right not easily forfeited, says NYT.

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Elisa Lipsky-Karasz's fascinating account of the life Julia Roberts has built for herself on a quiet street in a modest home in Malibu, being that mom across the street no more, no less, as she raises 9 year old twins Hazel and Finn and 6 year old Henry. The actress famous for Erin Brockovich (2000) and other movies leads a simple life with the coming an going of school days and spring vacation being the key points of the year. Any movies are done on her schedule and now focuses on narrower topics such as the fight against AIDS of a doctor who is a polio survivor- The Normal Heart was done during children's summer and Thanksgiving vacations. And its a life she is grateful for, being just like anybody else on that street.

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The best US cities for jobs is changing rapidly in 2021 after the spread of coronavirus. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston lost jobs. Jobs shifted to hubs in the interior of the country as remote work changed the workplace. Salt Lake City in Utah, Austin in Texas, and Denver became new hubs with environments that included mountains, healthier living, quieter lifestyle, lower costs and efforts to attract employers. Tourist spots suffered with Orlando in Florida moving to 47th place in terms of jobs. The US lost 9 million jobs in 2020 changing how the jobs market in cities looks. The WSJ looks at the changes in this report. Tech hubs such as Raleigh in North Carolina, and San Francisco suffered decline as remote work created new opportunities for cities in the interior of the country. By contrast Salt Lake City was growing twice as fast from 2000 to 2017, and has increased in popularity with surrounding areas of Provo and Ogden in Utah. It is now known as Silicon Slopes as it becomes a new tech hub city. The WSJ looks at Salt Lake City in some detail.  ...

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Bolivia's economy showed 6.5% growth in 2013 and the portion of the people in extreme poverty has dropped from 38% in 2005 to 24% in 2013. Policies of president Morales are winning praise for being prudent from the IMF and the World Bank. A greater share of the revenues from natural gas production and high natural gas prices, Bolivia's main export products, has enabled the government to build international reserves to $14 billion. This is half the country's GDP, and the highest ratio of reserves to GDP in the world. Morales has adopted socialist policies and at the same time provided fiscally responsible management, showing the two are not inconsistent and can be adapted to local conditions to build a middle class and improve living conditions.

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Kings Way which remained right up to 2022 as Rajpath in Hindi as the British named the central part of Delhi for the Empire is now a thing of the past, says prime minister Modi. He opened the newly laid out Kartavya Marg with Netaji Subhas Bose replacing the symbol of the Empire in King George at the end of the Kartavya Marg. With the completion of the National War Memorial at the other end Delhi now has a new look and it will remind people of India that it is the work of the people not of kings and nobles in the new India that counts.