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A joint article by Robert Rubin, Clinton era Treasury Secretary and Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute. Rubin was senior adviser to Citigroup during the period that Citigroup leveraged itself and invested in lower quality securities that have left the firm exposed to substanital losses, and led to hiring a new CEO Vikram Pandit to clean up the mess. And this may explain the joint article with a less well known economist Jared Bernstein, and the tentative nature of their advice as the two differ on the important issue of long term fiscal deficits and still agree on investing heavily in healthcare, education infrastructure, worker training and energy. In a short recession they may be complementary and you could have the best of both worlds as in the other postwar recessions. But this is unlike any of the postwar recessions and is shaping up to be a long and deep downturn unlike anything seen in the postwar period. That Rubin does not even mention this shows that probably he is out of touch, as he was during his years when Citigroup was acting much like the other banks that were in serious trouble this year. Some of the decisions for lax regulation during the Clinton years were taken with the support of Rubin and Greenspan. What Rubin calls the longest expansion could have been for the most part good fortune and a steady period for the economy with Rubin's contribution being fiscal discipline, stewardship of the Mexican rescue package and committment to free trade policies, but not facing upto huge headwinds in the economy that required challenging leadership and judgement. Here Rubin mentions nothing that suggests bold vision and judgement, instead hoping that old policies that worked during the good times would somehow work today. And on some issues like labor being squeezed and getting a smaller portion of the economic pie with no support for unionization, a drop in the number of unionized workers and weakened labor bargaining strength, Rubin who now sees this as a bad trend for the working middle class incomes, did little in his years in the Clinton administration to reverse or slow this trend. He cites productivity growth of 20% from 2000 to 2007, and yet the real income of working age middle class households was falling $2000 or 3%. ...

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Michael Boskin of Stanford University, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under the elder Bush, on the risks of protectionism and higher taxes to the economy in the long run, and the need for the Fed to balance the need for providing help with rate cut with the need to keep inflation at low levels. He suggests workouts of the losses from subprime mortgages not bailouts is the correct answer. P.S. A note on December 6, 2008, after the crisis with Bear Stearns in early 2008, and the severe October credit crisis and a series of bailouts of banks, financial institutions and the Detroit auto industry. If one looks for the thinking that was behind the Republican Bush administration's early stand to take no proactive steps to improve things in the economy, then Boskin's article summarizes some of the thinking behind it. Lowering rates at the time except gradually,after the Greenspan moves in preceding years to lower rates and let them stay that way too long (leaving too much liquidity and loose lending in the financial markets), was not to be taken lightly with additional concerns of pushing inflation upwards. And Boskin way underestimated the losses from subprime in December 2007 when he used the estimate of $300 billion investor losses centred in real estate made by the OECD at the time, or as he puts it just one-half of 1% of American's net worth. Concluding that in a $14 trillion economy such losses could be absorbed. He anticipated delays in financing and the need to mitigate that but did not anticipate a collapse of credit markets. Part of this may stem from not realizing the impact of highly leveraged debt on the books of financial institutions and what it could do if fear gripped the financial markets, and underestimating the impact of subprime debt with mortgage securities that had no transparency and distorted credit ratings. Which is why he says that policy should be for workouts not bailouts, emphasizing that the worst idea out there is for a broad interest rate freeze for mortgage borrowers which would throw into question the sanctity of private contracts and thus deter investment. This policy of resisting loan modifications continued as policy of the Bush administration even as Martin Feldstein, another Harvard economist and Reagan administration economic advisor, advocated just that from early 2008 with repeated oped articles in the WSJ throughout the rest of the year....

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Yale's Robert Shiller, founder of the of the Shiller-Case survey, says that he does not see a turning point in the housing market at this time, based on the 5000 mailed questionnaires he sends out each year. He says this is not visible and hard to conclude from the responses. He also describes the bubble thinking and behaviours he sees from the responses, especially how people extrapolate into the long term the short term gains being made. Nowhere in these responses does he see the term bubble being used by respondents, as if it never existed.

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The effects on the U.S. stock market, Treasurys and corporate bond yields of the U.S. Federal Reserve's move to continue Operation Twist in June 2012. The Fed plans to sell $267 billon in short term debt through the end of the year. The effects are expected to be more muted compared to the quantitative easing efforts of QE I, QE II, and the Operation Twist through June 2012 in which the Fed sold $400 billion in short term debt. The effects of the eurozone crisis and slower growth worldwide are other macroeconomic forces at work which may play a larger role this time.

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The director of the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy says he worries about the effect of automation on work performed by garment workers in countries such as Bangladesh. As machines become adept at performing the difficult tasks performed by humans, automation is spreading in places like Bangladesh. This report shows the Mohammadi Group which makes sweaters for H&M, Zara and other brands replacing 500 workers in its Bangladesh factory with 173 German machines. As wages grow in countries that made garment products such as Bangladesh, India, China and Cambodia are affected. A 2016 International Labor Organization Study predicts some Asian countries could lose as much as 80% of the apparel, textile jobs as automation spreads. This presents a huge problem for these countries as creating high skilled jobs is a challenge in these Asian countries. In Bangladesh where 2 million new jobs are needed each year to keep pace with increasing labor force, the 300,000 new textile industry jobs a year for 2003-2010 have shrunk now to about 60,000 a year, according to World Bank data.  The garment industry in Bangladesh provides 80% of the exports and 3 million  manufacturing jobs, reducing significantly the number of people below the poverty line. After a fire at a garment factory in Bangladesh the government set a monthly minimum wage of $64, an increase of 77%, with automatic annual raises. Factory owners moved to suburbs and used more machines to deal with labor unrest. Some garment workers became rickshaw drivers, a scooter type taxi in India. The Bangladeshi garment industry is continuing to be cost competitive by reducing costs through automation, increasing exports by 19.5% from 2013 to mid 2016, increasing jobs by 4.5% during this period, according to the local industry association figures.   ...

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A technology that has been known for years but with problems to solve before it can go on the road is being developed by automakers. It will increase fel economy by about 15% and reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen a key smog component. GM is working on getting HCCI which stands for Homogenous-charge Compression- Ignition to work in a gasoline engine. For it to work the combustion process in such an engine has to meet certain conditions, the mixture of air an fuel has to be homogenous and be at certain temperatures. Once this is achieved combustion occurs without a spark. The trick is to get the temperature and gas mixture to just the right homogenous levels so that it sparks and burns efficiently, which at this time is being achieved by computer controls keeping the engine rpm within a certain optimal range of 1000-3000 rpm which covers typical driving. Problems that remain to be tackled are the faint rattling type noise when the engine shifts to spark ignition when its outside this range of rpm, and the emissions reduction at low loads, and handling a range of fuels. GM has made progress upto the advanced engineering and road test phase for the Saturn Aura. German automakers Mercedes and VW are perfecting there own versions of HCCI and Honda is developing its version and its a top priority for these automakers. ...

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State Bank of India saw its deposit base jump by 40% in the last 3 months of 2008, as customers transferred money from foreign banks and private sector banks to State Bank of India. State Bank of India is 60% owned by the Government of India. Over the last decade ICICI and other private sector banks modernized, had better looking, airconditioned branches open longer hours, compared to the older shabby looking branches with fans of State Bank of India. Now State Bank of India has tens of billions of additional deposits, has $20 billion in cash above the amount it needs to operate, and is able to offer interest rates on loans that are 2% lower than the competition. ITs also investing in modernization of its branches so that it canoffer the same cheery looking, airconditioned branches as its private sector competitors. It hired 25,000 workers in 2008, plans to hire 10,000 in 2009, is investing in 4000 additional ATM's and adding 2000 branches to its 10,000 existing branches. Competitors attribute State Bank's growth to lhigher deposit rates and lower loan rates more than the flight to quality. State Bank says about 60% of new loans are coming from competitors. And State Bank hopes to recover the market share it lost to private sector banks in the last decade. Lending at State Bank and other public sector banks rose 29% last year, up from 20% in 2007. Lending by private sector banks rose11.8% in 2008, compared to 24% in 2007, and at foreign banks increased by 16.9% in 2008 compared to 30.7% in 2007...

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Dave Shiflett, who helped Trump write the book "The America We Deserve," in 2000, describes his experiences working with Trump during that period. He says Trump is very different now with his strident tone and disdain for Bush and Clinton as candidates representing dynasties from the past, and willingness to use fear of terrorists for electoral advantage, calling some other candidates pathological liars. At the time in 2000 Trump preferred a civil tone. Now Trump revels in making statements about other candidates, women and journalists. He is taking full advantage of the public's dissatisfaction with political correctness and the lack of credibility of elites running the country, says Shiflett. What he finds disturbing is Trump calling good, hardworking people "losers," with no consideration of the advantages he has enjoyed.

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David Wessel says the U.S. is in a liquidity trap. He says the 500 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Averages was a less significant event than the decision by the Bank of New York Mellon to charge clients for keeping large amounts of cash. In a liquidity trap investors are indifferent between keeping their money in cash or in investments providing a return, because interest rates are so low. Today the S&P 500 have in total an estimated $963 billion in cash. The solutions for gettting out of a liquidity trap include government stimulus spending, devaluing the currrency, and generating inflation that could make it easier to reduce government debt. The stimulus approach was adopted in the first 2 years of the Obama administration and there are now increasing pressures to reduce the U.S. deficit. Because of the role of the U.S. dollar as an international currrency and large sovereign holdings of U.S. currency, an outright devaluation of the dollar has not been considered an option. At the same time the weakening of the U.S. currency has helped exports and is encouraged by the Fed and the U.S. government. In a sense all three options are being tried in different degrees and ways. The stimulus was the early response till the deficit concerns began to increase and require attention, the efforts to lower the value of the dollar to increase exports is underway, and the rounds of quantitative easing by the Fed were intended to produce inflation (and avert deflation). All with limited success....

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A report from Roubini Global Economics says state and local government financial problems are not of a systemic nature and should not affect the U.S. financial system. The report sees defaults as isolated events. Still it says reforms will be needed only some of which have been made, and preventing a crisis will require real austerity. The report predicts $100 billion in muni-bond defaults over 5 years.

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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Zweig, Light and Pleven reflect on the experience of the last 5 years in the stock market. Investors who went through severe anxiety for higher investment allocation in stocks in 2009 now feel the opposite for low investment allocation in stocks. What does one make of this, and what have we learned, is the question posed. One lesson is that investors should be wary of relying too much on predictions. At one point predictions of Goldman Sachs and other bank economists was for the S&P at 1250 at the end of 2012, when it was 1421 in April 2012. The eurozone crisis and the sluggish U.S. job growth, debt overhang, were major factors in their assessment. The eurozone recovered faster than expected and the Iranian nuclear crisis risks were reduced through negotiations. QE 1, QE 2, QE 3 by the U.S. Fed under Bernanke provided support to the market. Banks recovered faster than expected with help from the Fed. Another lesson is that this can happen with higher volatility, 900 point drops occured in May 2010 and there were drops in April 2012 and other dates. Zweig gives April 2011 as a date for the start of a 5 month bear market, citing Oct 4, 2011 as another date with the market dropping 21% from the April 2011 peak. Another lesson is that performance statistics can play tricks, a month or a year can make a big difference. If 2013 is not included the statistics look very different, if 5 years go back to Feb 2009 when there was a 11% decline instead of March 2009 when there was a 9% improvement the numbers change quite a bit. Another lesson is that macroeconomic news played a major part in the story of the stock market in 2009-2014 and continues today, with continuing support and vigilance from the U.S. Fed and the ECB. The bad news from the eurozone throughout 2011 and into 2012, and sluggish job markets in the U.S., took a positive turn in 2013. The U.S economy is improving and the eurozone is returning to growth gradually in 2014. Because of different timing in their recovery P/E ratios are higher in the U.S., than in Europe....

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Millions of people who are first time users for whom affordability is an issue in countries from Nigeria, Ivory Coast to India, Indonesia, are connecting to the internet. This time not with smartphones made by Samsung or cheaper Chinese smartphones made by Xiaomi or Huawei, but by using a new smart feature phone that cuts down the price such as the Jio phone by Reliance Jio in India. This costs only about $25 compared to $100 to about $300 for lower cost smartphones These phones provide basic features, some apps, messaging, internet access at low cost. About 3.4 billion people without the money to buy costlier smartphones are turning to this just like people did 20 years ago with lowcost Nokia basic phones until smartphones appeared. Monthly cost for mobile data access to internet is $2.50 a month for all the mobile data he needs or Rs. 1750. Batteries last for days in countries where electricity is unreliable. A fruit vendor in New Delhi makes $80 a month or  Rs 5600. A Jio phone fo him costs Rs 1400 compared to paying Rs 7000 or $100 for a Chinese smartphone. Reliance partnered with Hong Kong's KaiOS Technologies Inc. which makes the most widely used operating system powering smart feature phones. Jio sold 60 million Jio phones and 370 million such smart feature basic phones are forecast to be sold in 3 years by 2022. Reliance Jio is being imitated by others. Orange SA of France has launched an inexpensive smart feature phone bundled with inexpensive mobile data plans in Ivory Coast, Burkina Fso and Cameroon and plans to put this in other former French colonies in Africa and Arab countries. WizPhone plans to introduce a $7 phone in Indonesia. KaiOS is working with Brazilian manufacturers to roll out cheap phones there.  In advanced countries Nokia is offering revamped versions of its candy bar shaped phones with added web access to enthusiasts. These cost $100. A whole new group of people who could not afford a smart phone are now being connected after Jio's pioneering effort in India. ...

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Florida added three million people and North and South Carolina two million people over the last 20 years from domestic migration mostly from the north and northeast and midwest to south and south east and western US. Places such as Phoenix and Las Vegas in the West have grown rapidly. This has put more people at risk from climate change events across the US, from heat waves lasting 100 days in Phoenix and hurricanes in Florida and the Carolinas.

This NYT report shows maps by county and color, where the people are moving in and moving out. 

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UK's Keir Starmer makes 6 pledges to the British people- "Living standards should rise so that growth was felt by everyone, everywhere." Real household disposable income per person, GDP per capita by 2029. Build 1.5 million new homes in 5 years and fast track 150 planning decisions on major infrastructure projects. 92% of patients have to wait no more than 18 weeks for routine operations and appointments by March 2029. 29,000 officers for neighborhood policing and stopping anti-social behavior-1 for every 8000 people. 95% of low carbon electricity generation by 2030. 5% gas generation kept in reserve for unanticipated situations. It is Boris Johnson's target from 2022 in contrast to DJT's reverting to oil and gas to 2027 with industry following its continued but slower shift to gas and wind/solar. A pledge on living standards as the goal not growth is what Starmer sees as the dire need today. Growth that would put the UK ahead of all countries in the G7 is put aside for raising living standards for ALL the British people. A recognition that the two can mean very different things. Under the current plan fufilfillment of pledges is seen in the growth rate of 0.5% a year that is set in 2024. ...

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Issues raised by the huge mismatch between revenues and investment for AI. $400 billion estimated investment by 5 Tech firms in 2025 alone with revenue of about $40 billion and huge uncertainty about when AI will produce returns. Articles seen this week of November 17 in the WSJ and NYT on this issue, podcasts, discussions in other media outlets. Could this lead to a dot com bubble type economic crisis? Could that lead to a recession? Alongside these articles another article in the WSJ on Nov 17 shows the benefits small firms get by using AI, benefits which are on the fringes of their business, not essential but with some experimenting firm owners/managers able to tweak AI information for use in business. Nothing significant which firms will pay much money for. The uncertainty is a major factor. Should geopolitics trump all these concerns? Is the competition with China require this scale of investment, and is China following a more utilitarian approach as reported in a WSJ article this month, of investing in AI in a utilitarian way targeting its use in improving manufacturing, improving infrastructure, and not wildly throwing money at experimental uses that are unlikely to yield much result. In geopolitical sense would the country that not only promoted AI but used it efficiently and cost effectively, used it in ways that promote the overall public good, get the WIN. In short it behooves everyone of us to ask hard questions of AI, to dehype the hype, to look for the public good that comes out of this from it's efficient use. To ask the tough questions when $400 billion generates only $40 billion in 2025 and the $3 trillion planned investment over 5 years is half unfunded, is it going to crowd out energy needs for homes and business, push renewable energy targets back, crowd out essential investments in the crumbling aging infrastructure of the US and Europe, crowd out essential investments in education, healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and manufacturing, that hold better promise for our People. Will it also put retirees at risk when corporate bonds from retirees money fund the unfunded portion of AI? This means making the political dimension not about migration, settling the illegal migration issue that was meant to be settled a long time back, or about cultural issues that have little day to day impact on our lives which are about groceries, childcare, housing that are non ideological. Making the political dimension not about remote countries that one knows little about except when it affects public safety and health as with fentanyl. Capital allocation decisions to the vital needs of America can then be free of politically induced error, so that it can be subjected to the test of how best it serves the public interest and the people of the Nation. ...

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Mexican billionaire Carlos Slim will provide $250 million to New York Times in return for warrants that can be converted into 15.9 million common shares at a strike price of $6.36, close to where the price was last week. The notes carry a interest rate of 14% and are due in 2015. The Sulzbergers control 19% of the company's equity and control the company through super-voting shares. If Slim exercizes the warrants he would control 18% of the company's equity. Times faces a liquidity crisis and the $250 million may not be enough for it to survive as an independent company. The New York Times borrowed heavily in the boom years and it had $1.1 billion of debt at the end of September 2008, and only $46 million in cash. Much of that debt is coming due in the next couple of years. It has a $400 million credit facility that expires in May 2009, $250 million in notes due in 2010, and a $400 million credit facility expiring in 2011. Its stock has fallen 50% already and its debt is rated "junk" by S&P....

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Investors are showing concern about Samsung's earning momentum. The mobile division generates 50% of profit and competition in intensifying in this field. Samsung shares declined by 4.6% on Jan 2, 2013. Overall operating profit is expected to increase in the 4th quarter 2013 by 9.2% from prior year, compared to 26% in the 3rd quarter 2013. The operating profit for the mobile division is expected to be up 14% over prior year for 4th quarter 2013, declining 8% from the third quarter. The less premium smartphones make up a greater proportion of the portfolio reducing margins. Prices are being lowered by competitors. Motorola Mobility is cutting the price of its Moto X smartphone to $399 from $550, much cheaper than the Samsung Galaxy S4 smartphone costing $600 without a contract in the U.S. market. Declining TV prices with competition from Vizio and other Chinese competitors is likely to squeeze margins in this segment.

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This WSJ editorial says president Trump can exit because president Obama never really built support for the Iran Nuclear Agreement of 2015. Stephens in the NYT cites a Pew poll at that time showing only 21% supported it with 49% not supporting it.  This editorial says the deal made by Obama gave Iran $100 billion of sanctions relief and a chance to revive its nuclear weapons program after a 15 year waiting period. It says this increased conflicts and wars in the Middle East. President Trump said in his announcement on May 8, 2018 that the deal never led to "peace, or calm and never will." Another issue of winning popular support is mentioned, as WSJ says president Obama did not submit it as a treaty to the Senate for approval. The Trump administration has its own work now to build support with Europe in fixing the nuclear deal's weaknesses, and winning support from Democrats as well as Republicans for sanctions and new negotiations that help bring a better more peaceful Middle East, so that Iran can focus on lifting living standards and improving the economy, setting a new course. ...

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Montes and Cordoba of the WSJ provide this exceptional account of corruption at the state level in Mexico. Ironically the very effort to reduce the power of centralized administration with PRI winning repeated elections and having a monopoly in power for many years, led to the decentralization and passing on power and money to the state governments in Mexico after the 1990's. But this was done without putting in the checks and balances required. Instead too much power was now concentrated in the hands of the state governments which appointed even the judges and officials at all levels including election bodies. Federal transfers of tax money to states increased 20 fold to $88 billion in 2016, according to this report.  The result 41 state governors faced corruption charges between 2000 and 2013, according to the Mexican Competitiveness Institute. This includes the state of Veracruz where state coffers are almost empty and there is no money to pay municipal bodies. The PRI governor of Veracruz Mr. Duarte supported president Pena Nieto, and was at 43 years age cited as the new face of the young PRI. This report  says he is nowhere to be found now that $2.5 billion in state funds cannot be verified. Other states are Tamaulipas, Quintana Roo, Coahuila, Sonora, where corruption charges remain. The Veracruz scandal is among the worst and is the focus of attention for the public in Mexico. At this point president Pena Nieto of PRI has about 12% popularity rating, lowest of any modern Mexican president.   ...

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Germany's national broadcaster DW.com looks into the details of the vaccination drive in countries around the world, including Germany, and finds that there is more to the story than meets the eye in headlines about safety in vaccinations. Many headlines do not tell the whole story carefully. DW revewed reports from Italy, Austria, South Korea, Germany, Spain, the USA, Norway, Belgium and Peru, and found that in most cases health authorites have not found causal links between the vaccination and deaths.  As of March 15 it says 360 million people have been vaccinated in 120 countries, or about 9.25 million a day.  DW.com cites the Pharmacovigilance Risk Assessment Committee (PRAC) of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) which states: 'there is no indication that vaccination has caused these conditions, which are not listed as side effects with this vaccine. Information available so far indicates that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than that seen in the general population." As of March 10, 2021 30 cases of blood clots are recorded for 5 million people vaccinated with Astra Zeneca vaccine in the European Economic Area.  The Paul Ehrlich Institute which is in charge of vaccination in Germany has looked into 113 reported deaths in 46 years to 100 years old patients in Germany. Of these 113 deaths PEI finds that 20 died of the Covid 19 infection as it takes 14 days after the second dose for full protection, and 43 died of pre-existing conditions or other infections. For the patient population it says "they were seriously ill patients with many underlying diseases." PEI says "based on the data we have we assume they died of their underlying disease- in a coincidental time with the vaccination." A virologist at the Technical University of Munich, says that the deaths after vaccination are below the expected number of deaths without the vaccination.  ...

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How do you setup a vaccine business. Consider Mr. Adar Poonavalla in the city of Pune in India. His company Serum Institute of India, remains family owned. Founded in 1966 by Cyrus Poonavalla, it produces billions of doses of vaccines for measles, polio and other diseases. It is expected to be one of the key sources of vaccines because of its expertise and the stocks of vials and other supplies that it has in stock for the next 2 years of vaccine production. It is working on a separate facility for coronavirus production that could turn out 800 million doses of vaccine at a price of about $13 a dose over 2 years. Serum Institute is working with 3 companies that are doing the research on the vaccine for coronavirus in the U.S. and Europe, and will play a key role in the manufacturing of vaccines. To respond to the question how do you setup a company to produce vaccines for the people of the world. This is what Mr. Poonavalla says- he will only work with ethical long term funds and sovereign funds because he does not want to be in the situation where he has to charge high prices to give them returns. Unlike most countries in the world, India is unique in making certain that most of the basic pharmaceutical drugs are available to over a billion people at a low cost. Serum's goal is low cost quality vaccine production so that over a billion people in Asia can be "protected from the birth onwards." As the U.S. and Europe and large parts of Asia, Africa and Latin America, face the second vaccine phase of the coronavirus response following difficulties in PPE, Ventilators, and Masks in the first phase, they can have confidence because of companies such as Serum and the research centers in U.S. and Europe like the one at Oxford University. ...

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Hardeep Puri writes in the Indian Express that one of the biggest problems in development in India was that government programs for development just kept getting delayed, and there were leakages of funds that could never be tracked. It is the sign of a developing country that it remain perpetually a developing country when it does not find a way to overcome this situation. Most of Asia, Japan, South Korea, China has found a way out, and it is a sign of character in a country and its administration that real implementation takes place to transform a developing country into a modern country organizing and combining the inputs of land, capital, technology and human resources. Just one example is the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana to build housing in India's cities to promote quality of living. In the last 7 years Puri writes in the Indian Express that 11.2 million houses were sanctioned, 4.9 million built and the rest to be built by March 2022. Compared to 1.2 million in the prior 10 years. To do this investment jumped by about 10 times. In the US infrastructure was neglected in the last 2 decades. In India urban infrastructure was delayed by never ending delays and leakages of funds. Across a range of projects from Metro urban transport to rail, bridges and road, infrastructure was slow and wobbly in India for most of the decades since 1947. The Smart Cities Mission is being financed with an investment planned of Rupees 2 trillion or over $200 billion to change the urban landscape with people centred priorities. As Puri writes silently, non performers are being weeded out, loopholes plugged, targets set, in scrutiny and monitoring of projects all the way to the prime minister in a way that has never happened before. There is relentless focus on monitoring the missions, problems to overcome, targets and dates of completion. Bringing to life a new national character and spirit for India during the pandemic. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
European Union plans are for cutting by two thirds current imports of oil and gas from Russia in 2022. The EU's plan is to take down the imports of Russian natural gas from 155 billion cubic meters which represent 40% dependence on natural gas from Russia, the import figure for 2021, down to 100 billion cubic meters. James Henderson, chairman of the gas program and the energy transition research initiative at Oxford Insititute for Energy Studies, looks at how the EU will get this done.  The European Commission's plan is to get 50 billion cubic meters of liquefied natural gas. New projects for LNG and return to market for supplies that were disrupted earlier would generate 40 billion cubic meters of LNG. Of this 30 billion cubic meters could go to Europe. Another 10 billion cubic meters is expected from Norway, Algeria and Azerbaijan. Some of this by delaying maintenance. Conservation and reduced consumption could deliver savings of 38 billion cubic meters of gas. Of this 20 billion cubic meters would come from new solar and wind energy. Roof top solar and installing new wind energy can save about 4 billion cubic meters of natural gas. This does not include energy saving from industry, particularly Germany, which makes up a significant part of the use of oil and gas. Increased temporary use of coal may be considered and nuclear energy is an option in some countries. These are first step, additional action will be needed to reduce dependence on Russia from the current EU plan of one third reduction in 2022 to two third reduction by the end of the year to demonstrate the EU's resolve in the war in Ukraine. ...