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The austerity plan that prime minister Belusconi of Italy set before parliament on August 29th was quite different to the plan he agreed to in negotiations with the European central bank. The negotiations led to support by the ECB with purchase of $30 billion of Italian bonds. Berlusconi left out a surtax on top incomes in the private sector. It also left out savings to be made at the local government level by mayors and governors. Berlusconi proposed a new pension calculation which would postpone the retirement of Italians by excluding military and university service. Also being prosposed by Berlusconi and opposed by unions is the extension of the retirement age for women. Unions say this will make it harder for Italian women to care for their grandchildren in a country without an adequate system of daycare. Slowly the whole package of austerity measures seems to be coming apart and this alarms ECB President Claude Trichet and his successor Mario Draghi.

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A report by pharmacy benefits managing company Express Scripts shows a 13% increase in the price of branded drugs in the U.S. from Sept 2011 to Sept 2012. Generic drug prices declined by 22% in this period. The report also shows that growing spending on specialty drugs for cancer, MS and other diseases is a big reason for the increase in prices of branded drugs. This report is from a random sample of six millon Express Scripts members using prescription drug coverage. Prof. Schondelmeyer of the University of Minnesota, who manages the drug benefits program at the university and conducts a similiar price report for AARP, says the potential benefits for these specialty drugs are not that good to justify the high prices.

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Experts in Germany and the U.S. look at areas adversely affected by free trade and globalization and the increasing support for right wing parties in these areas. David Autor is a labor economist in the U.S. at MIT who has studied these trends. He says trends in free trade have hurt low wage workers. In 2014 he and David Dorn, Gordon Hansen, Jae Song, published a paper showing how trade with China was affecting different parts of the U.S. Lower wage workers, most of them with less education and skills were prone to be unemployed or face lower earnings in areas where cheap imports from China were replacing domestic production. Donald Trump has strong support with the white working class and less educated workers who form this group. He has accused China of "currency manipulation" and proposed a 25% tax on Chinese imports. Experts say there is no strong evidence that immigrants are causing this type of dislocation in the U.S. Yet immigrant bashing is used by Trump and other right wing politicians which is attributed to it being an easy tactic for politicians to appeal to the anxieties of working class voters....

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Deocuments from the weekly cabinet meeting show the new budget in France will increase revenues from household income taxes by 23%, and business taxes by 30%. The top marginal income tax rate goes up to 45% from 41%. Limiting a deduction for financial charges for company's taxable income brings in $4 billion in 2013, according to the finance ministry. The goal is to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012. The finance ministry has assumed higher borrowing rates for future years- 2.9% on 10 year debt for 2013, up to 3.65% in 2015, and is not relying on the low rate of 2.18% on 10 year government bonds as reported by Trade Web Sept 28, 2012. The overall tax burden will be 46.3% in 2013, and 46.7% in 2015. French debt is at 91% of GDP for the 2nd quarter 2012, expected to be 91.3% in 2013 and falling to 82.9% in 2015. Prime minister Ayrault emphasized- "If we don't put a stop to this, taxpayer money will keep paying for debt reimbursement." Swift anticipatory action and unified government-business-labor posture under a favorable borrowing environment characterizes the approach for Britain and France in 2011-2012, compared to the situation in Spain where government action has been slow, not tough enough in cleaning up the banks, fallen behind in anticipating events and the government-business-labor unified posture has cracked under the strain. As a result under an unfavorable borrowing environment money raised from austerity type tax increases now goes to paying for debt reimbursement in Spain, leading to a situation in which debt and deficit reduction targets just get harder to achieve. A looming drop in credit ratings to junk status for Spain only makes the situation harder to overcome. ...

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This exceptional report by Chulov in the Guardian shows the changes in the war in Iraq and Syria in 2015-2016 since the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey in late 2015. It says that the Syrian government's future was uncertain in late 2015 with Turkish support for rebel forces in the north. During this period Russia curtailed trade and tourism relations with Turkey, and improved relations with the Kurds. Russia intervened in northern Syria directly to prevent a collapse of Syrian government forces in the north. Kurdish forces were already controlling large parts of the Syrian territory adjoining Turkey, and Turkey was concerned about the support to Kurds within Turkey from Kurds in Syria and a historical movement for  Kurdish independence. In April 2016 Russia made a move to win Turkish support by saying it would support the territorial integrity of Syria, so that no support would be given to the Kurds. As the U.S. consistently supported the Kurds in the fight against ISIS, Turkey under prime minister Erdogan changed its policy of support for rebel forces in Syria to focus on what it perceived as the threat fom Kudish control of the region at its Syrian borders. Rebel forces were told to focus not on the Syrian government forces but on ISIS, leading to withdrawal of support in Aleppo. What remains now of the war in Syria and Iraq is Iranian influence in Iraq, the Russian influence from support of the Syrian government in Damascus, and for the first time U.S. ground forces in the north with 900 troops supported by artillery on the side of the Kurds. The next stage in the war to take ISIS controlled Raqqa is being negotiated between Russia, Turkey and the U.S., according to this report.  ...

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Entous, Malas and Abushakra of the WSJ give a detailed account of the series of smaller chemical attacks that ended with this large attack in the suburbs of Damascus in August 2013, the actions of key participants, and the responses of the global community.

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On the Rosneft IPO. Strong demand for the IPO shares will help raise at least $10 billion for Rosneft. Successful implementation of new Russian energy policy to build a number of large state run energy companies and modernize it energy sector as a basis for Russian economic growth.

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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Nawaf Obaid, a fellow of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, is also senior fellow at the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. Here he describes the events leading to the Saudi turndown of a seat on the UN Security Council. The Saudi foreign policy establishment made this decision after several weeks of debate in Jeddah considering the U.S. and Russia's effort to make only a muted criticism of the use of chemical weapons in Syria in the Security Council; and the U.S. effort to have the British, French and Saudis give up on demands for firm language in a Security Council resolution on action to be taken against the use of chemical weapons. For the Saudis, says Obaid, better not taking a temporary seat on the UN Security Council, than to be left a docile member without its own voice and the voice of others in the international community being heard. Obaid also points out that this is the beginning of Saudi effort to exercize its own influence in the Middle East, as it faces three separate developments in 2013- the Iranian rapprochement with the West under new president Rouhani, the Arab Awakening and the new consciousness in the Middle East, the U.S. policy under president Obama of not taking leadership in the Middle East. This also comes as the Saudis parted ways with the Obama administration on the role of the military in Egypt, and has differences with Turkey and Quatar on support for Islamic groups in Egypt and Syria....

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ECB president Mario Draghi describes the problem of financial fragmentation in the EU, as each country's national supervisors ask their banks to withdraw their activities to within national boundaries. This ringfencing of liquidity positions means the interbank market is not functioning. Draghi says this financial fragmentation is within the mandate of the ECB to correct. He points to the risk of convertibility that has more and more to do with the premia being charged for Spain's and Italy's government bonds, not just the perception that the counter party can fail.-"To the extent that these premia have to do with factors inherent to my counterparty, they come into our mandate, they come within our remit." Draghi's effort to define the issues of financial fragmentation, and sovereign premia "hampering the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channels," is critical because the ECB sees it important to act within its mandate. The final point he makes is a political one about the future of the euro: "When people talk about the fragility of the euro, and the increasing fragility of the euro, and perhaps the crisis of the euro, very often non-euro area member states or leaders underestimate the amount of political capital that's been invested in the euro. We view this, and we are not unbiased observers in Frankfurt. We think the euro is irreversible. And its not an empty word now, because it preceded saying exactly what actions we are making that would make it irreversible." On the progress made, the acceptance of one financial and banking supervisor by member countries of the EU is seen as part of the idea of shared sovereignty necessary to put meaningful supervision across national boundaries in place. And on the structural reforms and deficit controls needed to be put in place he sees "the pace has been set, and all the signals that we get are they don't stop reforming themselves."...

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From the beginning coordinated effort had little prospect between the U.S., the EU, and Russia to address Islamic State and terrorism with Russia's continuing its policies in Syria. This is less likely now with the shooting down of a Russian war plane over Turkey, continued tensions with bombing of Turkic populations on the border, and Russia's bombing campaign in Syria hitting targets all over the region.