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Medicaid is now costing the US about 880 billion dollars in 2025. Of this 69% is covered by Federal dollars sent to the states. WSJ reports- 2025 DJT action on Medicaid calls for around $800 billion  savings over 10 years in Medicaid cuts that would come from $109 billion savings over 10 years for work requirement. And $600 billion savings over 10 years from paying only 90% (not 100%) for the people added to Medicaid by Obama that are in better health than the core Medicaid population who get only 90%.

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Simon Nixon points to two large capital gaps Spain's government faces for Bankia. Spain was not prepared for the events of the last month as it took control of Bankia. The agreement to convert 4.5 billion of preference shares into equity gives it 100% of Bankia parent, Banco Financiero y de Ahorros, and 45% of Bankia. The capital gaps Spain faces for Bankia comes from expected loan losses which it has been slow to deal with. BFA-Bankia's real estate loan losses are estimated at 52 billion euros. Capital provisions for this are only 11%. J.P. Morgan estimates another 4.9 billion euros will be needed under new government rules. But these rules do not reflect all the losses if real estate loans are written off and and other loans are correctly shown as nonperforming, and other corporate loan provisions are increased. When this is done total losses would in reality be about 12% of the 190 billion euro loans at BFA-Bankia or 22.8 billion euros, according to experts. To correctly deal with this would require $15 billion euros, in addition to the 4.9 billion euros, for a total of 19.9 billion euros. The other capital gap comes from BFA's capital carried on books at 12 billion euros, the pre-IPO value. This has been shrinking rapidly to 5.5 billion euros at 2011 end, and is now down to 2.8 billion euros. This could mean another capital gap of 5 billion euros, depending on to whether shareholders are wiped out. Bankia has 350,000 private shareholders and it will be important to maintain depositor confidence. The total is close to 25 billion euros in capital gap for BFA-Bankia that the Spanish government must face up to quickly. It does not stop there because there are other cajas savings banks and other banks that will have to be taken into account- too large a loss would mean losing market confidence and poorer access to financial markets. ...

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New risks are emerging in the shadow banking system as regulators work to make the banks safer. Banks as deposit backed financial firms are different from mutual funds, private equity and other firms that are doing more of the financing for business and home loans in the U.S. financial system. As banks deleverage responding to tighter regulation by increasing capital buffers and reducing assets, it makes the financial system safer, yet creates new risks in the shadow banking system not subject to regulation and not supported by bank deposits the way banks are. A IMF report put out in April 2015 underlines these new risks in the U.S. and European financial system. Mutual funds and exchange-traded funds now rival banks in providing financing to companies with high debt. Total bond holdings worldwide in 2014 were $9.6 trillion, increasing 25% over 2008, and the mutual funds leveraged loans increased 60% to $151 billion in the U.S., 223% in the eurozone to $126 billion, according to the IMF. The IMF points out that these mutual funds and exchange traded funds favor emerging market and corporate junk bonds, and operate in a way where they mimic each others in their investments, creating contagion. With hard to sell securities and the rapid decline in these types of funds in a panic, the effect could be to create contagion across the funds. In the mortgage lending field a similiar process of deleveraging is happening. U.S. banks share of federally guaranteed mortgages from big banks down from 61% in late 2012 to 33% in 2015, other smaller finance companies taking up 51% increasing from 24%, according to an American Enterprise Institute report. Paul Tucker, former deputy governor of the Bank of England, points out the dangers. He says policy makers and regulators are playing catchup with firms in the financial services industry who are constantly looking for gaps in the rules, a game that policymakers and regulators are likely to lose at some point....

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The work of innovation teams that help reduce lost production time and make production more efficient on Boeing's 737 production lines in Renton, Washington. There are 1300 improvement teams at Boeing for commerical jet production. Examples range from conventional improvements such as remapping production arrangements to unconventional ones like the use of hay loaders to put seats on passenger planes. The work requires highly motivated production engineers and Boeing has a long tradition of this. Boeing has increased 737 jet production to 35 a month from 31.5 with the help of such improvements. The goal is to make 42 planes a month by 2014, and 60 by 2017 when the 737 MAX goes into production. Boeing has a large backlog of orders- 3,700 jets of which 2,300 are 737s.

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Barley points out that Russia has two strengths as it tackles S&P's downgrade of its credit rating. The downgrade was a result of large capital outflows. He cites Moody's for the low level of government debt of about 13.5% of GDP in 2013, or about $265 billion. Interest payments on debt are about 1.7% of government revenues in 2014. And Russia has $442 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of April 1, to support its efforts and stabilize the economy. The weakness is that Russia depends on oil and gas exports for half of government revenues and 67% of exports, according to Moody's. Higher interest costs on Russia's bonds are one cost of the crisis, bonds due in 2023 have a yield of 5.6%, according to TradeWeb. This yield could go up higher.

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France's unemployment rate for youth 15-24 is over 25%. France's president Hollande has a plan to get companies to hire young workers on a permanent contract. The "generation contract" gives small business 4000 euros a year for three years to hire a young person on a permanent contract a the same time committing to keep an employee over 57 years in age. Companies with over 300 employees are required to set targets for hiring younger workers and keeping older workers or face sanctions. The program would cost France $1 billion a year and the government estimate is to generate 500,000 jobs in 5 years. A think tank OFCE sees this as generating about 100,000 jobs, because many companies would have hired anyway. The German approach is focussed on state sponsored apprenticeships and vocational training, which some French companies says is the right direction for France. German youth unemployment is 8.1%, with 2.6 million students at vocational schools, and 1.46 million apprentices. Beginning Jan 2013, Germany will support youth from other eurozone countries with language courses and travel costs to work in these programs in areas of Germany with shortages of workers....

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In this economy there is wide divergence in the US for upper income people earning well on assets they own at 5%+ for extra income and the lower middle classes wage earners that are struggling even with low unemployment and inflation at 3%. WSJ looks at these two divergent parts of the US economy and what can be done. Inflation could be worse with higher Trump tariffs on imports, says WSJ. The situation is a difficult one for families struggling even with higher incomes, as this one in Michigan in the WSJ, that finds it necessary to take money out of savings with prices higher but not reflected in inflation statistics of 3%. One example is higher housing and apartment rental costs with 25% of families having to spend over 50% of their income on home rental leaving little for food and expenses. President Biden has called for limiting price increases on home and apartment rentals to 5%, and Harris has proposed aid for families spending more than 30% of household income on housing costs. Strong action is needed. ...

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Raising the minimum wage to $10.10 an hour would help 16.5 million U.S. workers improve wages at a time when 45 million workers are below the poverty line in 2016, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections. Most of the low wage workers are in retail and fast food industries. The total number of workers in 2016 the higher minimum wage pulls out of poverty in 2016 are 900,000. About 500,000 fewer workers would be hired because of the higher wage.

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 President Trump says China is backing off in negotiations to address U.S. demands for a fair relationship on trade. He says the U.S. will increase tariffs from 10% imposed in September 2018 to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods starting May 10, 2019. China has put tariffs of 10% on $60 billion of American goods exported to China responding to the American tariffs in last September.  The U.S. says since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 with the approval of president Clinton it has unfairly benefited in trade with the U.S., leading to closure of factories and loss of jobs in the U.S. with state subsidized Chinese exports to the U.S. contrary to the spirit of the WTO and its rules. China has made promises to correct this and not kept them says the U.S. side in negotiations led by Robert Lighthizer. The tariffs moves are a tactic of president Trump to get China to relent and make fundamental changes in the way it exports to the U.S.  So far the Chinese response has been tit for tat. But this can change. As this report points out what is already known that China benefits far more and exports far more to the U.S. than the U.S. does to China. The $60 billion of American goods exports on which China placed tariffs represent two fifths of China's imports from U.S. With smaller exports from the U.S. to China, China has not much leverage in trade negotiations in this kind of tit for tat retaliation. It hurts China's exporters and economy much more than it does U.S. consumers. The increase in prices for U.S. consumers are also not expected to be significant, according to this report in the NYT, if China increase tariffs further. Aware of this and China's belief that past administrations have not responded is a guide to what the Trump administration can or will do, has convinced president Trump that there is no other way to get a fair trading relationship that respects U.S. interests, its jobs and workers. As Robert Lighthizer who leads the U.S. negotiating team faced this type of response from the Japanese when he negotiated with them (shoving off U.S. demands to reduce Japan's trade surplus in the eighties before accepting them), the U.S. thinks this strategy will work again. In any case it sees no alternatives to achieve its goal of a fair and balanced trading relationship. The U.S. international trade deficit in goods was up to $891 billion in February 2019 even after the tariffs on Chinese goods in September, showing that it will take a lot more to turn this as well as other trading relationships around.   ...

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Is a Win-Win possible for the US/Israel and Iran possible with the US/Israel strikes and operations started March 1, 2026. Not just for the American and Israeli people, but for the people of the Arab countries and for the people of Iran, and for the people of Russia. Greg Ip in the WSJ, Marc Thiessen in the NYT, and Bret Stephens of the NYT have looked at this in this way and offer an alternative view of what might happen, even though the tendency of the WSJ and the Washington Post is to be skeptical and the NYT with an opposition to all things DJT offering pessimistic version. First, all the anticolonial writings that were read by Khamanei in Moshaad are no longer the case as the US is no longer acting to secure some benefit to itself as the British and French colonial powers did for themselves or their oil companies in pre1960's Iran. Second the US truly wants to learn the lessons of 30 years of troubles in the region at every level of the DJT administration which is to extend a true olive branch to the subdued foe as it did to Germany and Japan under generals Eisenhower and McArthur. Third moderates in Iran could emerge as in Germany ( Adenauer) and in Japan Shigeru Yoshida who worked to adopt the 1947 Japanese Constitution under Gen. Douglas MacArthur. Behind the student protests and now national protests there is a realization in Iran that living perpetually under sanctions is not the way to live, that it can increase oil production, get investment in its industry, and raise standards of living, by doing something different. That nuclear weapons development, supporting movements overseas, perpetual conflicts with Arab states, these things have been tried and are not working. That this is the last chance to build a prosperous Iran before fossil fuels are replaced by renewable energy over 10-15 years and which will make it that much harder to modernize and develop Iran for the benefit of Iran's future 110 million people. The gap with India will only widen as India catches up with China, the way China caught up with Japan. It is better to accept that these anticolonial writings that emerged from decolonizing Arab North Africa applied to the British and the French, and that the world is a different place today as the Indians and the Chinese have realized modernizing ancient societies with ancient religions is possible with the help of the Americans and the Europeans, working with the Americans and the Europeans. Theodore Roosevelt says in his Autobiography that one should be careful to judge people as the best have some negative aspects and the worst have some positive aspects, an experience he described in his dealings with progressives and those who opposed changes. Adenauer and Yoshida had contacts and dealings with earlier governments defeated in the war, but wanted to search for an entirely different path for rebuilding their countries having learned from experience. A thoughtful moderate Iranian outcome is possible as happened in Germany and Japan and which is beginning to develop in Venezuela.   ...

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In a Wall Street Journal/NBC poll taken December 11-14, the results show how fast things have changed in one year for the Obama administration. Today less than half of the people approve of the job Obama has done as President. And among core constituencies which helped Obama win the election he is losing support. A third of voters 34 and under feel negative toward the Democratic party. When asked about their sentiment Mike Ashmore, a23 year old from Lansdale, Pa., an independent who supported Obama what bothered him most was the lack of action on jobs. With Hispanics those who are positive about Democrats has dropped steeply from 60% to 38%. And Mr. obama's personal popularity has dropped, now only 50% feel positive about him down from 68% in January. Overal 35% feel positive about the Democratic party in Dec 2009, compared to 49% in February 2009. Something serious is happening here. Because this does not translate into gains fro the Republicans who are where they were earleir in the year. Only 28% of voters expressed positive feelings for the Republican which is what it has been all through the summer and fall of 2009. On Afghanistan only 44% feel its the right approach to do atroop buildup, 41% oppose. So the President support especially in his own party is not much here. If 28% of voters feel positive about Republicans, and only a litle more 34% feel positive about Democrats, then how will voters make achoice between candidiates in elections? Would they go by the merit of the candidate regardless of party. Something else that Americans are beginning to sense is that the country's prospects look grim with the economy, jobs, and the national debt and deficits, as well as a sense of lacking much needed renewal. ...

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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Counting only people who voted in 2020 Biden is ahead 2 percentage points. 2024 Biden campaign is complicated by irregular and disengaged voters. Will disengaged mostly younger voters stay home or will they vote? What will happen with the churn- how many of the irregular voters from the last election will turn out and how many stay home. Many are Democrat leaning and as the election campaign progresses they may become more aware and vote but this is by no means certain. Many are younger voters or minority voters who are disengaged and do not follow what is happening. The economy not abortion or the border is important to these voters. President Biden has secured the vote of only 75% of these voters and has to find ways to reach them all. 

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A research paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows 43% of Americans in 2012 under the age of 25 with student debt, having average debt of $20,326. Compare this with about 25% of young Americans having student debt in 2003, with average debt of $10,649. This is crowding out other borrowing such as buying new homes or cars by younger Americans because of borrower unwillingness to take on more debt and banks unwilling to lend to borrowers who might default.

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Indonesia's airport passenger traffic increased to 60 million in 2011, up 15% from 2010, according to the Ministry of Transportation. About 8 million were international passengers, up 23% from 2010. After the Asian financial crisis in 1997 the government relaxed restrictions on setting up an airline to stimulate the economy. There are now 18 airlines offering scheduled flights, up from 13 in 2001. Garuda spun off a low cost carrier, Citilink, and Lion Air is starting premium carrier Batik Air in 2012. The middle class in Indonesia has grown from 80 million to 130 million since 2003 creating more passenger traffic. Existing infrastructure is struggling to cope with the demand for air travel and is falling behind.

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The 64 mile highway known as the Gardez-Khost Highway has cost $121 million upto this point. The final cost is expected to reach $176 million. At $2.8 million a mile the cost overruns on this projects are over 100%. Parts of the road run through Taliban territory and may never be completed. Security for the project has cost $43.5 million, according to USAID officials. This involves among other things payments to a local figure named Arafat. The road connects two provinces, Paktia and Khost, and runs through rugged mountain terrain at 9000 feet. At the original estimate of $69 million it was considered a good investment for linking these areas to Kabul.

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The Cape Ray equiped with the technology to neutralize chemical weapons at sea waits for a trip to the Syrian port of Latakia to pick up 700 tons of chemical weapons. The equipment has been tested but doing this at sea is a new effort. The entire process would take 90 days and is expected to start in 2 weeks. There are 35 crew members and 63 additional workers on the ship. At the Syrian port Danish and Norwegian ships will bring the materials to the Cape Ray, and security will be provided by China and Russia. The effort is organized under the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the UN.

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India is running a large current account deficit with imports exceeding exports. The curent account deficit for the year ending March 31 was $88.2 billion, about 4.8% of GDP. With foreign investment declining remittances from Indians abroad are a major source of incoming capital. Indians overseas sent about $69 billion in remittances home in 2012, increasing from $63 billion in 2011, according to the World Bank. In August 2013 India's central bank relaxed restrictions on interest rates for overseas Indian rupee accounts and on foreign currency denonimated deposits. This has led to a sharp increase in remittances by Indians overseas, with HDFC bank reporting a 30% increase in remittance volumes in June 2013 compared to January 2013.

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Obama proposes a 90 day moratorium on foreclosures and a moratorium on foreclosures by banks that get government help. He has also proposed that people should be able to take out money from their 401 K retirement plans upto $10,000 or 15% of retirement savings withot penalty. And he has proposed dobling the government loan guarantees to auto companies from $25 billion to $50 billion. These steps he proposes could be taken before January through current laws or by the Democratic controlled Congress acting in a lame duck session. Obama outlied these plans before an audience in Toledo, a struggling city in Ohio where working class Americans are facing the hardships of the current crisis.

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This indepth report from the Economist looks at the damage done in 9 years of rule under Jacob Zuma, and the prospects of the African National Congress under the new leadership of Cyril Ramaphosa. The South African economy suffered under Jacob Zuma. The Zuma government hurt the government's finances, and suffered from corruption and mismanagement. Only 21% of South Africans trust their government in one poll. This indepth report also asks the question- how much has changed since the days of Apartheid South Africa? Mandela's release from prison in 1990, and the ANC party winning elections in 1994 changed South Africa into a multi cultural and multi ethnic society with democracy. A liberal constitution protects the rights of all of South Africa's communities and citizens. Share of households without electricity fell from 42% in 1996 to 10% in 2016. Black people make up 50% of the middle class. Blacks now make up more buyers of suburban homes than whites. Race relations are better today. The problem is that progress and improvement in living and economic conditions stalled after 2009 when Jacob Zuma as head of the African National Congress became president. GDP per person declined after 2013. Half of South Africans were born after the end of Apartheid in 1994. Nearly 40% of people of age 15-34 are not in work, training or education. To get into the middle class one needs a job. About 62% of South Africans would trade democracy for an unelected leader who could deliver on housing and jobs and the economy. Cyril Ramaphosa was made president and head of the ANC after a bruising struggle to oust Jacob Zuma in 2017 ANC conference. He now faces elections in May 2019. In the 1980's he led the National Union of Mineworkers. He later became secretary general of the ANC in the 1990's and led talks for democracy. Ramphosa was passed over by Mandela because of pressure within ANC to select Thabo Mbeki. Mbeki was followed by Zuma, also from ANC. Ramaphosa then joined business, as a small number of well connected black South Africans and made $450 million through preferential access to equity in large firms for a few black South Africans. Then went back to the ANC as deputy president,  then deputy president of the country. The Economist says after Zuma South Africa is running out of time, and Mr. Ramaphosa expected to win, faces many challenges, particularly youth unemployment. ...

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The US and Saudi Arabia are working on a partnership in which the Saudi Public Investment Fund will invest $15 billion to secure mining stakes for metals such as cobalt needed in electric car batteries. The US would buy the supplies from the Saudi owned companies. US is a copartner with India on a new economic corridor infrastructure project that will connect India with the European Union and the US through Saudi Arabia. Saudis will invest $20 billion said MBS, Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia, at the meeting of the G20 in New Delhi alongside Modi, Biden, Scholz, Macron and the heads of the EU. This is a major new project for which the seeds are being put in for future generations.

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Los Angeles and New York city with about 15% of the workforce in creative freelancing jobs where people work two, three, or four jobs to pay the bills, are being hurt by high unemployment. These jobs have little job protection and require people to leave their homes during coronavirus. This includes performers, production crews, ride share drivers, personal trainers and others. Los Angeles area unemployment has reached 21%.

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The Washington Post survey of 1200 readers on how the Republican healthcare plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives looks to them, how it affects them in their lives. Here Somasekhar of the Post gives the stories of 5 Americans. Some see the prospect of losing their insurance under the Republican plan even as they reach an older age, others a smaller segment says the Post, whose premiums jumped under the Affordable Care Act say they faced high premiums and high deductibles. The Post says the large majority of opinions have expressed anxiety over the proposed Republican Ryan House plan for healthcare. One of them is an uninsured poor farmer, Mr. Woosley,  income about $18000 who gained benefit from expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act,  one Mr. Smith, 32 years, a personal injury attorney who faces paying $10,000 if he did not take insurance and $10,000 if he took insurance because of high premiums so a wash either way deciding to do without it, one a tech worker Mrs. Powers, 62 years, income $22,000 on year and $4000 the next, from middle class during the tech boom but facing fewer opportunities and uncertain income from part time work, hit by the deep recession facing fewer opportunities as she gets older and now the prospect of losing insurance without government subsidies, one who is from the middle class who sees little benefit from the Affordable Care Act and is forgoing insurance because of the high premiums yet faces a penalty for not being insured under the ACA, another Mr. Blanchard, 52 years, is from the middle class, a computer programmer who lost his job in downsizing, earns $100,000 as a consultant self-employed, pays $767 in premium a month and relies on the Affordable Care Act which helps him gain freedom from working at a company that could downsize,  another is a middle class programmer Mr Riffle,age 44, and his wife, who does not qualify for a subsidy with a $71,000 family salary from working 4 jobs between himself and his wife- this person finds it too expensive for his salary to buy insurance $900 a month and $14,000 deductible under the Affordable Care Act. His views are worth listening to as they go to the crux of the problem- he says he may not be any better with the Republican plan. He sees the real problem as the high cost of health care in the U.S. and the only way this can be fixed is for members of Congress to be asked to use the insurance exchanges they create. If this sample is representative it shows that there are real problems with both the Affordable Care Act and the Republican plan, that the high cost of health care the problem lurking behind every plan that does not squarely address this, and till that happens and members of Congress experience what ordinary people face, this problem can never by fully solved.   Woosley, Smith, Powers, Blanchard, Riffle, and their personal experience is at the crux of what is right and wrong  with the Affordable Care Act, and also with the new Republican plan of Speaker Ryan and the House of Representatives. For every Woosley, Powers and Blanchard who benefit, there is a Smith and a Riffle who are indifferent or are affected by the high cost under Affordable Care Act and the current system of medical care with its high cost. The Affordable Care Act does not  tackle high cost, for that to happen the culture in America that makes it possible and acceptable to charge high prices must change. Another problem apart from bringing health care costs is that any solution needs to have the whole country behind it. If the notion that all people are entitled to basic health care is to stand, the whole country needs to believe it as they do in countries like France, Britain, Germany and Japan. If this has to be made a workable proposition health care has to be offered at a price that makes this possible to achieve, and that idea also needs the deep and broad sense of support from the culture in America similar to that in these other countries. Until that happens politicians in America will get elected and turned out of office in turns on issues such as health care, based on which side they take and which problems they choose not to face squarely and responsibly. ...

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Apple offers a new way to buy iPhones directly from Apple with financing in September 2015. This will change the way iPhones are sold, giving more control over the sale of iPhones to Apple. It will enable Apple to stabilize core sales for iPhones by encouraging upgrades every year. The monthly payments are $32.41 for 2 years for the cheapest iPhone. Apple is taking aim at the average upgrade time which is increasing- it went up to 26.3 months in 2015 from 18.2 months in 2010, according to a telecom consultant. With the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus sales surged for Apple in the first 3 quarters of 2015 by 50% from the prior year period. It will be harder for Apple to generate this kind of sales increase as the new iPhones introduced in September 2015- the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus have better cameras and "3-D Touch," only incrementally different. A 16 gigabyte iPhone 6s would cost $778, about the same as the $649 price and Apple Care coverage of $129. The way iPhones were sold through wireless carriers kept the price hidden with higher wireless service charges- 2 years of a Verizon wireless 3 gigabye data plan ended up costing users twice the amount of the $649 price of the iPhone. Now the competition among wireless carriers will shift to pricing cuts and changing their pricing strategies. The result of the changes is likely to be increasing shifts from one carrier to another as Apple allows direct buyers to choose the carrier they want....

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About 85% of people in Portugal a country of 10 million people are fully vaccinated in October 2021, highest in Europe. Strict precautions for prevention such as social distancing and mask remained in place after the surge in January 2021 which led to deaths at a rate that was three times the peak rate in the US.

On October 1, 2021 the restrictions such as 30% limit on filling soccer stadiums were lifted. For the Benefica vs Bayern Munich soccer game restrictions were lifted leading to filled stadiums with vaccination pass mandatory. As people return to indoors in winter this could still result in increase in cases. Because Portugal depends on tourism and stadiums are filled to capacity there is the risk of a smaller surge. Cruise ships are back in Portuguese ports and tourists,are back in large numbers. Soccer fans, fill subways, leading to new concern about a limited spread of the coronavirus.