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Atul Aneja looks at Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's comments on the India- China relationship in March 2018.  The comments by Wang Yi show an extraordinary effort by the Foreign Minister to push for better relations. He raises the need for greater dialogue and "mutual trust" to improve the relations. Wang visited India in December during the period of tense relations and the post-Doklam meeting between prime minister Modi and president Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS meeting in Xiamen. India's Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale visited China in Feb. 2017. A China-India economic dialogue is planned for April, 2018, preceded by visits of Commerce Minister Zhong Shan and Guo Yezhou, Vice Minister of the International Department of the Communist Party of China. Compared to the comments by both sides during the Doklam crisis there appears to be a significant change in policy. Wang refers to "more far-sighted leaders" who have realized the importance of the India- China relationship as that between the two largest developing countries each with a population of 1 billion.  In the context of events in early March with pressure from the Trump administration on trade with China- calling for China to come up with plans to reduce the trade surplus in 2018- and the growing influence of Mr. Lighthizer as a trusted advisor of president Trump and exit of Gary Cohn, this could be a strategic move.   ...

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The action taken by local and government officials to address the high PM 2.5 pollutant levels and smog in Harbin, China, in October 2013. For the first time the Ministry of Environmental Protection has powers to take serious action. It is sending out inspection teams to cities across China for the winter to make sure environmental regulations are enforced. One big change is that cities now report in real time the change in pollutant levels for PM 2.5, the worst pollutant. By Oct. 2013 113 cities in China carried the live reports on websites. The Ministry has published a list of the 4189 factories in China that create 65% of total industrial air pollutants in China. The Jinping-Li Keqiang administration supports the stronger enforcement and has set a goal of reducing PM 2.5 levels by 15- 25% each year for Tianjin, Beijin and Hebi province in northern China, compared to 2012 levels. These three regions have been given the target of reducing coal use by 80 million tons a year.

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European preparations for an embargo on Iranian oi. Development of technologies to develop nuclear weapons advances in Iran, causing concern that leads to action by the U.S. and the E.U.

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Chinese bio tech hubs around Shanghai started by biotech engineers from China trained in the US returning to China are giving the US competition. These biotech companies in China are coming up with drugs for lung cancer and other fields at a fraction of the cost. This happened in AI with DeepSeek doing what ChatGPT does at 10% of the cost.

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The leaders of India and China, Narendra Modi and Xi Jinping will meet at a 2 day summit in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, China, on April 27, 2018.  The meeting is significant because for the first time the 2 leaders will meet on a one on one basis for a significant part of the time without aides to get a better understanding of each other, and a get a sense of how to establish a good relationship between the 2 countries. Ma Jiali of the China Reform Forum, a think tank affiliated with the Communist Party's Central Party School says a better relationship would serve China's interests for regional calm, so that China can focus on internal issues of tackling poverty in the interior of China, tackle economic issues arising from a difficult trading relationship with the U.S. including the tariffs of the Trump administration.  China's leadership have not anticipated the decisions made by president Trump and the Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to take a strong stand on correcting an imbalance in trade that leads to about $1 billion in trade deficit each day for the U.S. with China. Previous administrations in the U.S. have not taken action. Also at issue in the U.S. China relationship is for the first time transfer of technology for "Made in China 2025." China's earlier advances were made with a free flow of technology from the U.S. and Europe.  The last time the two leaders met was in 2014. This time the issues of border relations in the Himalayas, and the relations with China in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean region, the growing relationship between Australia, U.S., India and Japan, are seen in a different light with the strong disagreements on trade relations with the U.S.  China sees a need for improving relations with India. Prime Minister Modi faces new elections in 2019 and the need to focus on infrastructure and development to win a second term in office for the ruling BJP Party.  A reduction in tensions serves the interest of both countries and leaders.   ...

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For the first time a senior figure in Beijing tells why China rejected a U.S. offer for a deal in May 2019. Mr. Trump said at the time that China withdrew its agreement on the deal after initially agreeing to it, creating a lack of trust. 

Senior economic official Li Deshiu says "it was a wholly unfair treaty that seeks to colonize China's economy. If this is accepted it is giving up China's development path, giving up China's rights for development, and making China a vassal of the U.S."

He says the trade war is a broader U.S. strategy to limit China's development in key industries. This is the Chinese perspective on the situation which was not stated in clear terms but alluded to till now.

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Construction spending in manufacturing was $108 billion in 2022. Total manufacturing employment is at about 10% of the private sector. About 800,000 jobs were added in the private sector in the last 2 years. The total number is 13 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. About 800,000 additional jobs are ready to be filled. For years after World War II the growth in manufacturing was at 4%. Today the growth will be higher after incentives introduced by president Biden in different sectors from semiconductors to electric vehicles.  In other products from eyeglasses to socks and bicycles there is a shift to adding factories in the US to be able to fill increase in demand and for stores carrying less inventory that can be replenished quickly from home factories. The supply chain problems and logistics cost increases during the pandemic have driven home the need for having supply from within the US or very close to the US in Mexico or Canada, or friendshoring in India or Vietnam. ...

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South Korean public opinion shows 80% of the public opposed to the release of slightly radioactive Fukushima water into the sea by Japan. Japanese public opinion is accepting this as unavoidable. This is weakening the position of South Korean president Yoon in coming elections. Yoon is a prosecutor who joined politics only a few years back and has seen his popularity drop by 7 percentage points to 35%. Yoon is known for his effort to bring South Korea and Japan closer together with the US in dealing with North Korea and China. Biden met with Kishida and Yoon at the White House only recently, and Yoon made a state visit to the US before India's Modi. Because Yoon is an outsider to politics he has been able to get South Koreans to accept the idea of settling past disputes with Japan tracing back to the colonial era and World War II, yet the Fukushima water release is opposed by the vast majority of South Koreans.

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Biden joins Harris at an event in Largo, Maryland on August 15 2024, the first time president Biden joins Harris for a rally after Harris takes on the role of nominee. Biden is sort of on this ticket as the nominee Harris's mentor and colleague. Harris runs on Biden's achievements and the president will forever be part of the Harris team with experience to get important legislation through Congress in the years ahead. At the rally Biden and Harris focus on cost of living and how Medicare now brings down prices of out of control pharmaceuticals. President Biden is the first president to restore Medicare's right and obligation to the American people to negotiate fair prices for pharmaceuticals. This right and obligation was stripped from Medicare by the younger president Bush in one of the worst decisions of a Republican president since World War II, causing terrible hardship from corporate greed to hard working American families. 

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This NYT editorial on the Jeb Bush Tax Plan says Bush has taken into account the shift in voter sentiment and focus on increasing inequality, with Trump, Kasich and Huckabee sounding these themes in their campaigns. The WSJ editorial on the same day also mentioned the plan's effort to help improve worker wages by increasing business investment, and creating the kind of growth where workers could share in the benefits. Jeb Bush made the lack of economic mobility a focus of his speech at the 2013 CPAC conference, a theme he shares along with his concern for fair treatment of Hispanic immigrants. In his speech at the 2013 CPAC conference Bush said: "the central mission of conservatives is to reignite social mobility in this country- restoring the right to rise," and pointed to the loss of economic mobility in the U.S. compared to any point since World War II.

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The serious differences between founders Elon Musk and Sam Altman over the non profit mission of OpenAI have spilled out into the open. Musk feels Altman is turning his back on the early mission set for OpenAI by planning to profit from OpenAI and drifting away from what it set out to do aware of risks during the early years of AI.

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DJT's 32% reciprocal tariff on Taiwanese goods including chips is working. When reports under president Biden showed TSMC investing in Arizona it was still a slow process with much foot dragging including articles by TSMC executives about how difficult it was to make in US. Lyrarc commented specifically on this as TSMC founders got their education and training in the US and it sounded a bit too condescending. Now that the Trump administration has its tariffs in place this WSJ report says the factory in Arizona is advancing production by several quarters, and it has started production late in 2024 with quality comparable to TSMC plants in Taiwan. How quickly DJT's approach with tariffs to level playing field and letting Taiwan know it owes defense and its education in semiconductors to the US is working, is shown by this example like others. And the $65 billion investment is now up to $165 billion in the US that TSMC is planning. The extra $100 billion is a commitment made to DJT. TSMC revenue growth is higher now at 30% than 20% it had previously with AI and robotic demand in 2025 so that it needs to make more chips quickly. ...

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This interview of president Trump by Matthew Bender of the WSJ is following the release of John Bolton's book. Mr.Bolton says Mr. Trump was willing to make compromises in China policy to win reelection. Mr. Trump says Mr. Bolton's statements are not true. Mr. Bolton says in the book and in a WSJ article that Mr. Pompeo and Mr. Pence also called for Mr. Trump to censure China for its treatment of minorities in Xinjiang province. Instead he says Mr. Trump told Xi Jinping that he could go ahead with the building of camps In Xinjiang province for minorities. Mr. Trump says he signed the deal for censure of China passed by Congress because he wanted to. The reporter from WSJ say Pompeo and Pence had called for it earlier,  but that this was signed only today. Mr. Trump does say that he has changed his views on China after what he calls the Chinese plague. Mr. Bender says he is wondering if Mr. Trump thinks differently about the trade deal now. Mr. Trump says he thinks that the trade deal is a great deal but that "But ever since we got hit with the Chinese plague.I feel different about everything having to do with China." He says he is hardline on China. And he believes Bolton had no idea he could get tariffs payments by China. In his view Bolton just lacks the economic sense. Bolton is a hard liner but stupid says Trump. That he Trump is also hardliner, but with economic sense. Early on in the interview Mr. Trump says he sees a V type recovery is likely after the good jobs numbers 17.7% increase in retail sales. He also says he left a lot of tariffs in the deal, a big portion about 25%.. In any case Mr. Trump says repeatedly since the virus hit America his view his perspective has changed, a very different perspective on China, views it very differently.  Mr. Trump says he had hardly signed the deal and soon after the virus hits. So now he views the whole deal differently today, he now views the relationship with China differently. The conversation started with Mr. Trump signing about 254 nominations for new judges. He says 75% of small business is now open.  Mr Trump says his goal for a second term is to have a strong powerful economy. Mr.Bolton agrees that Mr. Trump was doing the right thing here to build a strong economy to support its policy. Only that he was making him, Pompeo, Pence and Lighthizer on trade issues, think that Trump would give in on national policy issues to China, on issues of U.S. national interest.  ...

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The shaping of China's policy for a Air Defense Zone and the role of president Jinping,

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The competing visions of Li Shufu of Geely, Volvo's new Chinese owner, and that of Stefan Jaccoby, CEO of Volvo. Volvo is known for a family friendly car with fuel efficiency and safety. Geely's vision for Volvo is a luxury car that will compete with Mercedes S class and the BMW 7 Series, and Lexus in the Chinese upscale market. The problem is that China is less than 10% of Volvo's worldwide market and Jaccoby wants to keep these customers who buy the Volvo as an understated family friendly car that emphasizes safety and fuel efficiency. Geely executives are moving in another direction and are focussing on the fast growing market for luxury cars in China. This segment is dominated by Mercedes, BMW and Lexus, who sell 90% of the cars in this segment. Such a strategy would depend on gaining acceptance in this segment, which is highly uncertain. It also risks alienating customers around the world who look at Volvo in a certain way, just as Subaru owners in the U.S. look at Subaru in a certain way. The culture clash is also reflected in the backgrounds of the two executives. Jaccoby, is quiet in manner, studied at the University of Cologne, and worked at VW before joining Volvo. Li Shufu is a son of former farmers who built Geely from humble beginnings in a rural area of China. Li wanted to move aggressively and build three plants in China. Jaccoby persuaded Li to make plans for one plant and make agradual expansion. The design of a new Volvo shown recently in Shanghai also represents a compromise. The design is called Concept Universe and gives a larger and different look for the Volvo....

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President Macron abolishes the elite school ENA, Ecole Nationale d'Administration, which with the Sciences Po university functions as the training ground for people serving in the government. Macron graduated from the school in 2004. Many French leaders graduated from the ENA. Macron wants to replace it with Public Service Institute that draws people from different backgrounds after complaints about elitism in France's public and private sectors. Charles De Gaulle established ENA in 1945 to train French leaders after the failures of the Vichy regime in World War II. 

The French people now see no need for an elite institution today, as most of the country's leading universities are quite capable of training the engineers, scientists, and administrative leaders needed to run French companies and the French government, and could do better in bringing diverse backgrounds and abilities.

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Value added industrial output in China increased by only 4.4% in August, showing deteriorating economy. Fixed asset investment outside rural areas, was up to 5.5% in Jan-August 2019 compared to year earlier period. Premier Li Kequiang says "Against the backdrop of a complicated international situation and given the higher  base of comparison, it is not very easy for China to still sustain a medium to high growth speed of above 6%." 
China's economy expanded at 6.3% in the first half of 2019- the government's target is between 6 and 6.5%.

In the light of this situation in the economy China is taking aflexible approach to trade negotiations with U.S. trying to separate issues of competition and technology of the long run from trade, and seeking areas of agreement after the rhetoric of the past 6 months.

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PM Modi pays homage to Atal Bihari Vajpayee who set India on the course of modernization and technological advancement, its course for unification as a parliamentary democracy under the Indian Constitution. "Atal Ji understood Indian democracy and also the need to make it stronger. Atal Ji presided over the creation of the NDA, which redefined coalitions in Indian politics. He brought people together and made NDA a force for development, national progress and regional ambitions. His Parliamentary brilliance was seen throughout his political journey. He belonged to a party with a handful of MPs but his words were enough to rattle the might of the all-powerful Congress Party that time.” “When it comes to the social sector, an initiative like the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan highlights how Atalji dreamt of building an India where modern education is accessible to people across the nation, particularly for the poor and marginalised sections. At the same time, his government presided over many economic reforms which set the stage for India’s economic surge after several decades of following an economic philosophy which encouraged cronyism and stagnation.” ...

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"To Invest (at home), To Align (with allies), To Compete (with the world)" sums up the approach of president Biden with China. It also sums up the approach at home and overseas. Biden senior adviser, Jake Sullivan at Council of Foreign Relations sets out the framework and path for managing US-China relations into the future for many decades. Here at the Council of Foreign Relations he shows how- through careful study of the relationship's history, the changes in the relationship, and where it is today in 2024. Having participated in previous administrations Jake understood how it has evolved, where mistakes were made by both China and the US, where misperceptions took hold and need for clarification, for action. The old Strategic Dialogue followed by Paulsen under Bush 2000-2008 allowed the relationship to be guided by business interests, -without any clear strategy or idea where it was going except maximizing interests of business on both sides- was continued by Kerry under Obama 2008-2016. Sullivan, Blinken and Biden have built a Strategic Economic Cooperation Framework that has clear goals on the American side and goals on the Chinese side, and work between the two presidents and their cabinet ministers. Trump 2016-2020 rejected the earlier Strategic Dialogue but was not able to set up a sound framework that would guide future relations for decades. Sullivan helped set up a new framework around three principles- To Invest, To Align, and To Compete.   Here he describes how the plan to invest trillions in infrastructure in the US was part of this plan's principle To Invest. On Align it was to derisk not decouple by reducing the excessive concentration of supply chains in China, that was revealed as a problem in the pandemic years. Building up manufacturing at home and in India, Vietnam and Japan. Align also was to have allies Japan, South Korea and India to be aligned with the US policy. It also meant that all three countries would follow the same framework for their economies To Invest, To Align, To Compete.  By combining the strengths of the 2 largest economic centers Seoul/Tokyo with New Delhi/Sydney in Indo-Pacific the leveraging effect of US strength could be felt to support its position. And third to compete on level field so that America retained control of its technologies and implementing exports controls. And sharing this in  open communication with China that the US was protecting its technology and interests the way China has done in the past for its interests. The benefit of open communication even where there are differences had the advantage of not turning this into open rhetoric that damaged relations as had happened under previous administrations. Wang Yi on China's side having seen and approached it with careful study and reflection had similar goals to stabilize and put the relationship on a sound footing. Sullivan met extensively with Wang Yi in meetings in several locations around the world. Ministers Yellen, Raimondo, Blinken, Kerry, were sent to China for extensive discussions as part of this strategy in 2023 leading to remarkable change in the mood and confidence in US- China relations after tumult in 2016-2020 and uncertainty in previous administrations. Much credit goes to president Biden and Jake Sullivan, Anthony Blinken, and also to Wang Yi and Jinping in no way diminishing their own initiative, so that for the first time in decades the US China relationship is now on a stable footing. Both countries faced common challenges around counter narcotics, around climate change, and other issues. These are being addressed. Competition is managed carefully and no rhetoric is taking place so that the largest two economies and about 1.7 billion in US and China and 2 billion people who are allies in India/Indonesia/Vietnam/ Korea/Japan living on the same planet earth can have economic and other cooperation  with different cultures, economic structures and systems of government. The result of such a framework also gives the basis for cooperation with America's allies to invest in Africa and Latin America and in the people of these two continents as another level of alignment and investment for a safer better world. ...

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Zhou Xiaochuan, is head of the People's Bank of China since 2002. For a long time Zhou has tried to convince party leaders in China to make financial sector changes. The new leadership of Jinping-Li Keqiang has now adopted most of the road map and priorities drawn up by Xiaochuan. The first is bank deposit insurance, which would especially protect small depositors and provide a basis for new private banks to compete with large state owned banks, creating competition in the financial sector. By supporting creation of privately owned banks impetus could be given to loans to the private sector to rebalance the economy away from state owned banks and state owned enterprises. This is a key goal in the road map drawn up by the think tank Development Research Center (DRC) which has the backing of premier Li Keqiang. Competition from new private banks would let banks compete to offer higher rates to depositors, another goal. In a September article for the Communist Party Seeking Truth magazine, Zhou pointed out the pressing need for " supporting private capital to set up private banks and guide them to position themselves in serving small and micro companies." These new companies especially in tech and information technology fields can be the new drivers for growth in the future as the burst of infrastructure building generated growth slows down. The one area Zhou faces resistance is his idea of opening up China to foreign capital inflows and outflows. Here critics,including younger economists, say this protected China in the Asian financial markets crisis of 1997, and would protect China in the event it faces outflows of the type that are happening in India in 2013 after the U.S. Fed's plan to withdraw from its quantitative easing. Xiaochuan sees the flow of foreign capital as another way for capital to flow to new private companies and balance away from the state owned enterprises, and for China's savers to be able to obtain more attractive returns. Zhou says his plan would include the option for China to reintroduce capial controls in a crisis. As China's debt to GDP ratio is set on a trajectory to approach the levels reached in Japan before its banking crisis there is greater awareness from party leaders about the need for prudence. Xiaochuan has worked with party leader Jinping's key economic advisor Liu He for years, and has the support of He and Jinping for introducing deposit insurance as a top priority. President Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang see the need for Xiaochuan's experience and foresight "as a talent who can be counted on," as the sense of importance of changing the economic structure has deepened in 2013. Mandatory retirement for Xiaochuan at 65 was set aside to give him a third five year term, and his road map long ignored by former premier Wen Biao, is now at the top of China's agenda. ...

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As India takes on the presidency of the G20 in December the first steps are being taken by the German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to build closer ties with India. The Hindu gives this intervew with Baerbock that shows Germany's keen interest in building the India Germany partnership. This sets the stage for the bi-annual India Germany summit meeting, with German chancellor Scholz to visit India in early 2023. Some of Baerbock's comments show energy and enthusiasm for India to work closely with Europe. "Our countries have so much to offer one another. We want to tap that enormous potential. One such example is the concrete agreement we will sign during my visit, making it a lot easier for both Indians and Germans to study, research and work in our respective countries." "Today's era is not the era of war, that was Mr Modi's message to Putin- that was the resounding message and I highly appreciate India's seminal role in achieving this." ...