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New York Times Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›

Twist and Sell

Wall Street Journal Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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Walt Gillette started at Boeing in 1964. He has been behind major advances in most of Boeing's planes- from the Dreamliner 787, 747, 737, 767. Gillette was the inspiration behind the use of twin engines for long haul flights, with the 767 wide body twin engine aircraft. He also helped solve problems related to putting powerful engines on the wings of a 737, using analytical methods called (CFD) Computational Fluid Dynamics. The studies led to using five parameters in a new combination that remains a trade secret at Boeing. The Dreamliner is his greatest achievement. What amazes Gillette is the huge advances in air travel, with about 600,000 people travelling around the world in Boeing planes on a single day. "I wanted to work on something that benefits the world," says Gillette.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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WSJ Lingling Wei's interview with Ding Xuedong, chairman of China Investment Corporation on its plans and strategies for 2015-2016, and future years. China's government formed CIC in 2007 to improve the returns on its foreign exchange reserves, estimated at $3.8 trillion in 2015. China Investment Corporation had largely stayed with low yields on U.S. Treasury debt till 2007. CIC has about $650 billion in assets in 2015. Its strategies provide insights into how China sees the outlook for the global economy. Ding sees opportunities in real estate and infrastructure, with a focus on the U.S. and Europe for steady cash flows. He singles out the U.S. as of particular interest as its economy rebounds. Strategies also include paring down of energy holdings. Foreign holdings are now $220 billion and have increased by 16.6% since 2009. A special unit CIC Capital was formed recently to more directly participate in managing foreign holdings with a long term view. Earlier focus of CIC on natural resources and commodities is now shifting as the commodities crisis has reduced long term prospects in that sector. The plan for the future is to shift to an allocation where financial products such as stocks and bonds are about 50%, and long term assets such as infrastructure investments, real estate and other investment take up the other 50%. At the end of 2013 equities and fixed income represented 57.4% of CIC global assets, and 28.2% were in long term assets. Ding wants to see China as the No. 2 engine for the global economy after the U.S. as No. 1. He sees the prospects for Brazil, Russia and South Africa as poor, and is optimistic about good performance from India, Mexico and Nigeria. On Japan Ding is skeptical of prime minister Abe's plans because he sees the lack of structural reforms in the efforts leading to a kind of lazy effort in his view. CIC is learning from the experience of other national investment funds and improving its in-house investment and management capabilities. Ding has many years of experience with China's Finance Ministry, the Cabinet, and the State Council. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Mistakes French bank Societe Generale made with acquiring a controlling stake in Greek bank Geniki. Credit Agricole bank had a similiar experience with its stake in Greek bank Emporiki. In 2010 Societe Generale was forced to set aside 400 million euros for bad loans. Credit Agricole had to remove the CEO and higher executives in 2009 before introducing good loan criteria at Emporiki. Today Emporiki has loan loss provisions of 12.5% of gross loans, and Geniki has 21%, according to analysts. Dirk Hoffmann-Becking, analyst at Bernstein Research, estimates that a default that took out 30% from the value of these Greek banks loan book and 70% from Greek government bonds would result in a loss of 3 quarters of earnings for Credit Agricole and for Societe Generale 1.5 quarters of earnings. This would mean that the French banks would take 3 quarters longer to get their capital reserve ratios to 9% for new Basel III regulations.
Economist Original article ›
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The austerity plan that prime minister Belusconi of Italy set before parliament on August 29th was quite different to the plan he agreed to in negotiations with the European central bank. The negotiations led to support by the ECB with purchase of $30 billion of Italian bonds. Berlusconi left out a surtax on top incomes in the private sector. It also left out savings to be made at the local government level by mayors and governors. Berlusconi proposed a new pension calculation which would postpone the retirement of Italians by excluding military and university service. Also being prosposed by Berlusconi and opposed by unions is the extension of the retirement age for women. Unions say this will make it harder for Italian women to care for their grandchildren in a country without an adequate system of daycare. Slowly the whole package of austerity measures seems to be coming apart and this alarms ECB President Claude Trichet and his successor Mario Draghi.
New York Times Original article ›
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Krugman on the ECB President Trichet's support for austerity programs in European countries facing debt crises, and the loan programs for Ireland, Portugal and Greece that require large cuts in spending. The austerity programs lead to lower growth in these countries, further reducing their ability to repay these loans. The reluctance of the German government and other European leaders to consider debt restructuring even though it appears Greece is unlikely to be ever able to repay the loans extended, shows that EU has not grasped the reality of the situation. ECB officials warned against any restructuring effort in late May 2011, saying that if a restructuring were to take place the ECB would not accept the Greek bonds as collateral for ECB loans. This leaves many to question the ECB's thinking. And to question the German government's resistance to provide aid for troubled European economies even though the current rescue programs were made to protect German banks from losses in loans made to these countries....
New York Times Original article ›
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The European Central Bank says it will no longer accept Greek bonds as collateral for loans. A similiar move preceded negotiations in 2012 for revisions to loan conditions from the ECB-EU and the IMF. Greece's banks will no longer have access to cheap loans at 0.05% from the ECB. The banks can still use the Emergency Liquidity Assistance facility for loans without which Greek banks would face serious problems. The ECB's reason for this action was that it no longer had confidence that Greece would comply with the bailout terms and could not conduct an ECB review in the current conditions. Both sides are staking out initial positions in the negotiations. Greece's prime minister Tsipras says he wants to work within the eurozone rules and at the same time respect the mandate from the Greek people for better terms on the loans. Tsipras met with the EU's Martin Schulz, and the ECB's Draghi, as the EU and ECB begin discussions.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Denning uses the Brazilian government's scrapping of a 6% tax on foreign purchases of bonds to slow the slide in the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real, to point to the changed situation today for Brazil, India, Turkey and S. Africa. Current account deficits in these countries are high, and foreign investors sentiment about emerging markets may be affected by the street protests in Turkey, reducing inflows of capital. The mining worker protests in S. Africa and the street protests in Turkey, have led to a decline in the currencies of the two countries. The Fed's quantitative easing program may be coming to a close, which would reduce the flows of capital to emerging market countries. Turkey has seen a boom in domestic credit supported partly by foreign capital inflows. The current account deficit to GDP ratio for Turkey is expected to be 7.28% in 2013, for S. Africa 6.46%, and Brazil 3.25%, according to IMF forecast.
New York Times Original article ›
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The South Ferry station, terminus for the No1 trainopens January 2009 with artists work by Doug and Mike Starn commissioned by the rts for transit Program of the Metropolitan Transit Authority. It includes curved floor to ceilin glass walls with silhouettes of trees, a marble mosaic of a vintage topographic map of Manhattan, and other imagery drawn from nearby Battery Park. Says Mike about the artwork, the brothers have been working with the idea of the splitting and changing of the trees and branches of the subway system, something that happens in time as well as in space. Its also rooted in their preoccupation with time and natural bonds part of their continuing project on the "Structure of Thought." The Starns proposal was selected in 2004 because of its imagery and its melding of technology for materials and of organix and urban history, and is part of the rebuilding of lower Manhattan after the 9/11 attacks.
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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Saudi Arabia which was seeing GDP growth of 4% a year is slowing and should see GDP growth at 2% in 2009. Overall Saudis are in much better shape than their cousins in the United Arab Emirates like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. THis is because the Saudi banking system followed conservative practices and parked its $500 billion in foreign assets in US and European government bonds. Saudis can use these funds to increase infrastructure, education and healthcare spending by an estimated 10% this year to about $150 billion. At the samt time the Saudis will have to pull back from the $600 billion of megaprojects that were planned and will have to put more government money in projects that do go ahead. There is likely to be a hold on the projects to build a number of new cities in remote parts of the country. Some like the King Abdullah Economic City planned for the Red Sea coast may get the go ahead.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The NASDAQ index reached 5000 by April 2015, a level reached in the stock market boom in 2000. Yet investment strategists who were wary of the stock market in the period before the 2000-2002 collapse of the market see this market differently. The NASDAQ itself is not what it was in 2000, with the 2015 NASDAQ component stocks being different for the most part, and the healthcare and other sectors better represented in the index. Only three of the stocks in the top ten in 2000 are in the top ten today, including Microsoft. The S&P 500 trades in April 2015 at 18.5 times its company earnings for the past 12 months, compared to an historical average of 15.5, according to research firm Bespoke. A big part of the difference today is the investment climate of low inflation, which gives the U.S. Federal Reserve flexibility in raising rates. Low rates make bonds with lower yields less attractive, and increase the present value of future earnings. The yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury was 1.917% on April 25, 2015. In April 2000 it was 6%, and in mid 2007 it was 5.3% before the financial crisis in the two periods. James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management oversees $347 billion in fund investments. He also was wary of the U.S. stock market in 1999, yet he does not see the similiar kind of risks today, and sees a long term bullish trend. The scenario he envisages is more of a pause or temporary decline. Paulsen has shifted money to European markets, as U.S. stocks are becoming more expensive relative to their European counterparts, a strategy that is being followed by other money managers since 2014. Higher price volatility is seen in the markets in 2015, with the S&P 500 up 2.9% for the first four months of 2015, and the Dow up 1.4%. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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S&P managing director John Chambers, says the U.S. credit rating could be dropped from the AAA bond rating it has enjoyed since 1941. S&P says it could downgrade U.S. debt securities even if the debt ceiling is reached, if it appears that there is too much political maneuvring in debt ceiling talks and deficit reduction. It said there is a 50% chance that U.S. debt securities would be downgraded in three months. Another reason for a downgrade given by S&P is a failure to come up with an agreement to reduce the budget deficit by $4 trillion over 10 years, because it would show inability to agree and implement a credible fiscal consolidation policy. Moody's Investors Service also said that it has placed its Aaa rating on U.S. debt securities "on review for possible downgrade."
New York Times Original article ›
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The crisis facing investment bank Jefferies Group about the extent of its holdings of European sovereign debt. Jefferies faces rumors about its financial condition. The desperate effort of CEO Handler to contain the crisis by listing online its holdings of debt by country and maturity with every ID number for every bond to show that it was not using credit default swaps to hedge investments. Shares of Jefferies Group fell 20% in October and 60% for 2011. As a safety measure Handler sold off $1.1 billion of sovereign debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain in November, and continued to reduce its exposure during the last week of November 2011. The collapse of MF Global for making large bets on European sovereign debt followed by crisis in market confidence was the background in which Jefferies Group fought for survival.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The stock market rally appears to have legs with the increase in revenue growth for the fourth quarter. But what supports this other than the Fed's bond buying, which suppresses the true cost of capital, is a question posed by analysts. Add to that transfer payments such as unemployment and other benefits which help sustain consumer spending levels, but are temporary measures. Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research says GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011 could be more than 5% year on year. The question is whether this is pulling growth forward from later years, so that larger dips could be expected ahead? Brokerage firm LCM Commodities says transfer payments from the government to consumers were 16-18% of personal consumption expenditures between 1995 and 2007. This has jumped to 22% by the end of 2010.
New York Times Original article ›
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Barcelona sculptor Jaume Plensa and his 44 foot high work " Echo," which shows a girl's head. This was raised in Madison Square Park in May 2011. It gives viewers pause amid the bustle of the Flatiron district of New York city. Plensa recently went to Chichester Cathedral in England. He is creating a sculpture for the cathedral's nave, a hand raised in blessing , which will be formed with a stainless steel lattice of letters in eight alphabets. Plensa's focus on the body is evident- something from the nineteenth century sculpture tradition but done in a twentieth century way. Plensa wants to see people pause at the sculptures such as the Echo, to be jolted out of their everyday consciousness when they are listening to the constant chatter of voices outside, so that the can hear the voice from inside themselves.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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This WSJ editorial says AFL-CIO union leader Trumka's questions about the Lew nomination at Treasury are appropriate even though they come 2 years later. The questions relate to clauses in bank contracts that allow accelerated vesting of equity awards for executives who may be likely to join the government- looking towards favorable treatment of the banks by these executives that join the government. In this case it is Citicorp where Treasury Secretary Lew worked before becoming Treasury Secretary. The original Lew employment contract with Citicorp had a bonus guarantee if Lew left the bank for a "high level position with the United States government or regulatory body." The revolving door has a pernicious effect on America's regulatory system especially for financial markets and bank regulation by permitting behavious that would otherwise be discouraged or penalized.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Folk singer Pete Seeger is the most popular folk singer in the U.S. since the 50's, and continues a tradition of folk songs started by Woody Guthrie in the 30's. He was able to bond with the public by having them sing along with him popular folk songs, including such tunes as "This Land is Your Land," "Michael Row the Boat Ashore," "So Long, It's Been Good to Know Yuh," "On Top of Old Smoky," "Turn, Turn, Turn," "If I Had a Hammer." The tradition of music and dissent ran in his family with his father being a music scholar who taught the first musicology course in the U.S. and a conscientious objector in World War I, his mother a professional composer and violinist. He attended Harvard but lost interest during the Depression years and dropped out.
New York Times Original article ›
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Most people hae not heard the name Radhabinod Pal the sole dissenting judge at the Allied Tribunal who questioned its legitimacy in a dissenting opinion. Here we learn that Judge Pal's opinion sealed a friendship between him and Abe's grandfather Nobusuke Kishi charged with war crimes but never tried. Mr Abe visited the Netaji Subhas Bose museum in Calcutta and said that he was determined to strengthen Japanese Indian bilateral relations that Bose wanted to see. Appears to be an emotional bond and a visit that aroused old feelings from a family tie for Abe. Note that India and Japan vowed to seal a economic partnership by December. Small as this seems this may be a big turning point for South Asia. See the details of the Japanese investment plans in India especially in infrastructure projects in related article.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
Financial problems at Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena and the Italian government's role has introduced an element of uncertainty in the upcoming election in Italy. This has helped former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi recover in the polls. In Spain the newspaper El Pais published information from the ruling Partido Popular financial records showing hidden payments of 25,200 euros a year between 1997-2008. The opposition leaders asked for Rajoy's resignation and Rajoy did not address the matter directly till a joint appearence with Merkel in Berlin, where he said: " I have exactly the same strength, the same courage, and I am just as determined to continue as prime minister to overcome one of the most difficult situations in Spain of the last 30 years." Rajoy has a solid majority in parliament, with his party firmly behind him. This is unlikely to affect the political situation in Spain.
WSJ Original article ›
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Italy's governing coalition of the Five Star Movement and the Northern League retreats from its plans to raise welfare and pension spending after spending plans leads to loss of investor confidence. Disputes on fiscal discipline with the European Union hurts Italy as ten year bond yields rise from 1.7% to 3.7% after the coalition took office. Italy's GDP declined by 0.5% in the third quarter of 2018 with lower business investment and consumer spending, creating risks of falling into recession. The result is that the coalition government led by Matteo Salvini and De Maio is looking for ways to meet the EU fiscal discipline rules after statements that it would follow its spending plans. Italy's national debt of 2.3 trillion euros is equal to 131% of GDP and perceived as riskier than most other euro countries. Promises made by the coalition government include: allowing retirement at age 62 instead of 67, and intoroducing "citizenship income" or basic welfare of around 780 euros a month for poor and unemployed. These plans are in the budget. Political leaders want to avoid losing face with voters by removing this from the budget. The alternative of the EU opening fiscal disciplinary proceedings against Italy would lead to further loss of investor confidence worsening the economic situation, is also a step Italy wishes to avoid. The EU Commission's view is that the budget plan would increase the structural deficit by $22 billion or 1.2% of GDP. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Russian Finance Minister Kudrin laid out some of the policies of Russia's investment fund. Russia will put $31 billion in a national wealth fund which will be invested abroad. Of this 60% has to be invested in government bonds and the rest of 40% could be invested as portfolio investments in corporate stocks and bonds. Following the example of the Norwegian wealth fund no stakes will be taken in a company that exceed 5%. This is intended to allay fears of political influence in the western countries.

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