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American poet Louise Gluck, poet in residence at Yale University dies at 80. She won the Nobel Prize for Literature for her poetry, and for her classic poem The Wild Iris. The poem looks at death in a different way. In today's world after the pandemic and conflicts it offers a new sense of hope-

The pine shifting then nothing- the weak sun flickering ending abruptly- the stiff earth bending a little

Then a voice - deep blue shadows on azure sea water

 

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Greg Ip says in WSJ that China turned to lender after 2010 and financed loans for development, for roads, highways and infrastructure in Asia and Africa. Between 1970 and 1990 the World Bank was extensively involved in infrastructure projects, by 1990 it retreated from this role and China after 2010 was lending at double the rate of the World Bank for it Belt and Road Initiative programs. At G20 New Delhi, India, Biden and Modi, leaders of Brazil, and South Africa, agreed on advancing the World Bank's loan capacity by $100 billion for next decade under leadership of Ajay Banga. Thjis is happening at the meeting of finance leaders in Marrakech, Morrocco in 2023. The IMF and the World Bank were set up after World War II under the agreements signed at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, as postwar finance system. The IMF was to serve as lender to countries facing short term finance crises, and the World Bank to finance development in poor countries such as India, Indonesia and after 1990 China. The largest borrowers from the World Bank were India, China and Indonesia. India is at $37 billion loans outstanding in 2021, China at about $21 billion after repaying much of its loans. By 2010 Brazil, Mexico, China and India had shifted to international capital markets for development support. Total outstanding debt of World Bank is $460 billion in 2021. ...

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Value for money is dominating China's shopping in 2023, says this WSJ report. Pinduoduo sales have increased 66% to $7.2 billion for second quarter 2023. It sells groceries, apparel, electronics at prices lower than other retailers.

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China's Producer prices declined by 3%, Consumer prices flatlined, and imports and exports are both down 6.2% in September 2023. Growth is expected not to exceed 5% in forecasts by IMF and others.

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China has a mountain of local debt that is seriously affecting the Chinese economy, time for can kicking is over. WSJ looks at this in 6 charts. Lanzhou and Guilin are 2 provinces where the fiscal capacity is already exceeded by interest on debt. Huzhou, Kunming and Chengdu are three provinces where interest on local debt takes up about 60% of fiscal capacity. The problems are complicated by dropping land sales, and LGFV bonds issuance at higher interest rates when the return of power projects is as low as 1.5%, and low on other projects. Yet there is hope because these provinces are inland provinces in north and west except for mega city of Tianjin. Land sales have dropped and replaced by LGFV or local government financing vehicles bond issuance at higher interest rates than bank loans. Conversion of LGFV to lower interest is being done, with provincial bank debt creating other problems.

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Biden hopes to kickstart the green hydrogen industry in the US with $7 billion in subsidies for new technologies and infrastructure. Green hydrogen is made by splitting water or H2O into its component parts and new cost effective technologies are needed. WSJ shows where in the US this money is going. About $1.75 billion will go to Appalachia and Mid Atlantic states such as West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania with Pennsylvania a key state in 2024 election.

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Gas supplies are so tightly balanced that minor glitches can create a jump in gas prices and electricity bills, says this report in WSJ. There is no backup supply with about 2 million barrels of oil gas equivalent knocked out because of Ukraine war. Supply is 4080 billion cubic metres of gas worldwide and demand 4070, so tight. By comparison oil supplies have backup and are more stable gpoing up only 6% for Brent crude this week of Israeli conflict. Even the stoppage such as at the Tamar offshore gas field west of Haifa, Israel or a Baltic sea gas pipeline explosion in Finland can have an effect. Gas prices benchmark was up 40% during the Israel Gaza war, by comparison oil is relatively stable with Brent crude rising 6%. Iran exports 3.1 million barrels a day, the US to keep prices stable has not strictly imposed sanctions on Iranian oil.

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The union representing 75000 nurses and pharmacists and other workers in California reached a settlement after a 3 day strike. Julie Shu, acting Labor secretary participated in the negotiations. Kaiser Permanente has 40 hospitals, medical offices and 213,000 employees other than doctors, serving 12.7 million people on the West Coast of the US. A sticking point was outsourcing. It is the largest strike of healthcare workers in the US for wages and benefits.

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The huge humanitarian consequences of the Gaza Israeli conflict are shown in this report in WSJ with or without an evacuation the consequences are serious with the Israeli response and land invasion after the Hamas attack on Israel's border towns.

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Republicans are hopelessly divided over choice of Speaker with Steve Scalise chosen by secret ballot but a few hardliners 7-8 members intractably opposed to McCarthy, and now Scalise. 

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Spain's princess Leonor, who will succeed King Felipe, will complete 3 years of military training like her father at the Zaragoza Military Academy. This will be followed by postgraduate studies. Here she is shown at the annual military parade in Madrid. She is known as Cadet Borbon.

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This report in WSJ has an interview of Walter Mead with Israeli pm Netanyahu on Iran nuclear deal and  its development of nuclear weapons, ways of reaching peace with Arab nations that could end the Palestinian Israeli conflict.

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Failures of X (formerly Twitter) now run by Melon Musk, in filtering out and monitoring content on the social media site.

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Rishi Sunak's approval rating drops by 5 percentage points in just one week, and this after the Conservative Conference in Manchester where he announced plans on relaxing net zero plans and other policy. Sunak's approval rating drops to 20%. A poll taken after Starmer's speech at the Labor conference in Liverpool shows the Conservatives dropping to 24% and Liberal Democrats dropping to 9%. Labor has the support of just under half of voters in Britain today at 47%. 32% now feel Starmer would be the best prime minister compared to 20% for Sunak. After the Liverpool Labor Conference the percentage of people who thought Labor had a clear plan for the country increased by 6 percentage points.

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Melanie Garson, professor at University College, London, says attention was diverted to expansionist settler programs in the West Bank leading to lax efforts for security on the border with Gaza. Parties on the right controlled the key ministry of Defense and their priorities were the West bank diverting resources,  say experts in this France24 report. Warnings were ignored from the Army, and from Egypt, according to this report. Garson says it will be very hard for Netanyahu to avoid responsibility for not having the mechanisms in place to protect people on the border with Gaza. On this page a former prime minister of Israel who had reached an agreement with Abbas of the Palestinian Authority for peaceful coexistence of the Jewish and Palestinian reflects on that progress and its disruption by rocket attacks from Gaza by Hamas leading to the Gaza war in 2006, 17 years earlier. The patterns are similar with the Israelis and  Palestinians close to an agreement but not going the last mile and external forces disrupting the process at the last moment. ...