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An exhibition at the Museum of the City of New York in January 2012 which offers clues for future development of the city - "The Greatest Grid: The Master Plan of Manhattan 1811-2011." It shows how Simeon De Wittt, Governor Morris and John Rutherford laid out the plan for the city of New York in 1811. Because of the growth at the port New York City's population had grown quickly to 96,373. By 1870 the population had grown eight fold to 800,000. The grid plan used by the planners gave a sense of order to the city and it stretched north to 155th street. Upto that time most of New York was below Canal Street.

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SDP candidate Olaf Scholz is seen as the most convincing of the candidates, and ahead of the Green's Baerbock and CDU's Laschet in a poll following the 90 minute television debate on German television. Scholz maintained an unperturbed demeanor as he responded to an attack from Laschet on a money laundering investigation being conducted on the finance ministry. He said Scholz was presenting a misleading picture because it was centered on the possibly illegal activities of a single employee in Cologne. He added that he had increased the financial oversight at the ministry since he took over in 2018. Looking at the problems facing German industry, and the challenges from climate change facing Germany,  Scholz had this to say on the scale of the effort needed in renewable energy- "We have 250 years of economic and industrial history behind us, based on coal, gas, and oil. And if we are to change that now that means we have to do an awful lot, for it to really work." The SPD goes into the election at this point with a six point lead over CDU. SPD at 26% vs CDU at 20%, Greens at 15%, in the INSA poll. The election debate on television continues to give SPD and Scholz the confidence needed to stay ahead. Unlike the period facing Merkel Germany after the pandemic faces challenges in social, safety net, child care, climate change, and foreign policy that require new thinking and ability to tackle new frontiers. ...

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Inida' slowdown from 9% to 6.7% growth rate is mainly the result of lower private consumption says the Economis, as the contribution to growth of private consumption dropped by half in 2008. Which is why it sees the handouts to consumers through tax cuts and welfare spending making sense in the short run, even as India's finances are stretched. After a 36% increase in government spending in this budget, the fiscal deficit is estimated to be 12% in 2009, including "off-budget" items. Increasing the efficiency of the fertilizer subsiies by putting it directly in farmer's hands instead of fertilizer makers is a priority, as this takes up 1.5% of GDP.

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Joe Nocera of the NYT, says prosecution of individuals responsible in the 2008 mortgage financial crisis is mostly a joke. Not one official of Countrywide Financial, says Nocera, that was at the heart of the financial wrongdoing in the crisis has been prosecuted. This may be one of the strangest aspects of this crisis and the behaviour of the Obama administration, the Justice Department and the regulatory agencies including the SEC remains dubious at best, when it comes to how little can be seen in this area that Nocera points out. By contrast says Nocera, about 1100 prosecutions were done in the S&L crisis and Charles Keating, a key figure in the crisis was prosecuted. When he inquired why the government was so intent on prosecuting figures involved in the S&L crisis, Nocera was told it was because the country insisted that this happen. This is because without this the deterrent effect no longer has an effect in preventing future behaviour of this type. Now he points out this is what the country is insisting happen. Regulatory actions alone may not create enough of a deterrent to protect the ordinary people who were worst hit in the crisis from another crisis. The exacerbated social tensions emerging from the crisis have created a large fragile part of the population with minimal savings that can hardly afford future hits of this type....

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Democrats are on a rapid schedule, and would like to pass abudget resolution by April 3, 2009. Democrats were generally enthusiastic about the first budget, and say they plan to move it quickly through both Houses of Congress. Democrats may have an easier time passing the budget than other legislation, because under Senate rules the key steps in the budget process can't be filibustered, and Democrtats have significant majorities in both chambers of Congress. Another good sign is that Democrats like Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, aprominent Blue Dog in the fiscally conservative Blue Dog coalition, had high praise for the President's budget blueprint, saying it got rid of the gimmicks of previous years like not including the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Under Bush the wars were paid for in socalled supplemental bills. "This is more honest than any budget in many, many years. That means its also ugly. I welcome the honesty. I think its time for Americans to grapple with fundamental problems, and not pretend that wars are free and things like that." He praised the courage to make an accurate diagnosis, and he likes the fact that the deficit is projected out for 10 years. What is not not as copnspicuous is the use of optimistic assumptions in the projections out over 10 years as the economy is assumed to recover quickly which no be the case....

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What is liquidity, Roche the author of "New Monetarism", asks. And points to all the credit that was created and moved off the bank's balance sheets and onto the balance sheets of nonbank financial intermediaries. This changed the very nature of credit as in this manner a theoretically infinite amount of credit could be created. Credit that is not supported by real money, because as credit soars real money remains the same or grows slightly. The whole traditional notion of liquidity had changed. What is suggested is that central banks can do litttle about it because whats on the balance sheets of the financial intermediaries is not going to go away and Citigroup in fact put that back on its balance sheet after Vikram Pandit took over at Citigroup. And this means that banks will be lending much less from now on and setting aside money for the bad loans as well as for any new loans they make shrinking the pool of available money to lend significantly in 2008 and beyond. Significantly China is mentioned as the next place to watch as the bubble that might pop with bad effects for the global economy. The exchange rate in China keeps Chinese goods from costing more and the US consumer bubble kept soaking up imports from China both of which will now go in reverse. And the Chinese stock market bubble is also something to watch that might pop....

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Souleymane Guengueng of Chad, a political prisoner during the dictatorship of Hissene Habre, and the ray of light Mandela's release brought to him in prison. He now lives in New York City.

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In 1980 Jeb Bush 27, was looking for a place where he could make a fresh start away from the Bush name in Washington and Texas. His father was making a run for president that year. Miami with its bustling Cuban American community seemed a perfect place for Bush with his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican born wife Columba. The co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida was a Cuban American, Armando Codina. He set up Bush Realty, making Jeb Bush a partner with a 40% stake in the firm. In this period 1980-1992, Bush's gross income averaged 107,000 for the 6 years before the elder Bush was elected president to $1.6 million in 1990 half way during the elder Bush's term as president, according to a WSJ analysis of tax returns. This was also a period when Jeb Bush while engaging in business deals, was also running for office- first as Commerce secretary for 2 years in 1987, making a unsuccessful run for governor in 1994, and a successful run in 1998, 2002. He helped boost the Republican party in the Miami area, bringing together Republicans and the Cuban American exile community, during the anti-communist mood of the Reagan period. As Miami-Dade county Republican party chairman he helped boost voter rolls for the party, which had a 2 to 1 Democratic party advantage in earlier years. Stewart and Reinhard document the situations in which the Bush connections at the White House helped Jeb Bush in his real estate business....

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Juan Williams says 4 million new Hispanic or Latino voters were added to voter rolls in the U.S. between 2004 and 2008.

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In comments to the Financial Inquiry Commission bankers Blankfein and Dimon show a lack of comprehension of the magnitude of the global financial crisis and their role in it. Blankfein says this kind of crisis was a once in a 100 years event and one should't react. Dimon says such crises happen every 5 to 7 years and is not something to get overly concerned about. And they offer no solutions or problem solving ideas, except to resist any form of regulation that would strictlly limit damage from a future crisis.

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Roland Arnall who sold his Long Beach Mortgage Company to Washinton Mutual which became WaMu's subprime arm, and ran his own mortgage company Ameriquest. He helped start the whole subprime business when in the early 1990's his company Long Beach Savings and Loan began selling subprime mortgages to financial instituions on Wall Street, where the mortgages were packaged into securities and sold to investors. This packging of securites backed by mortgages and later the shopping for ratings which enabled these securites to get the the AAA rated seal of approval was to get this business the financing and backing on Wall Street. Ameriquest was invoved in questionable practices in its lending. His company and its 270 offices closed in 2006 and $325 million was put up by his holding company ACC Capital Holdings to settle regulators claims of charging excessively high mortgage rates. His origins are with a family that survived the Holocaust by taking refuge in a Catholic church and he became an altar boy, and later immigrating to the Los Angeles area. He was diagnosed with late stage cancer in March 2007 and died the same month. This is one of the individuals who pioneered the whole business of packaging subprime mortgages as securities. ...

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Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs executive is the new Treasury Secretary in the Trump administration. His ties to Goldman Sachs go beyond his own work at the firm. His father joined Goldman in 1957, and worked for his entire career at the investment bank. Steven's brother Alan also worked at Goldman. During the campaign Trump was severe in his criticism of his opponents Cruz and Clinton's ties to the bank. Ironies abound, not only is the new Treasury Secretary from Goldman, his connections go back a generation. The Treasury Secretary under Clinton was Goldman Sachs executive Robert Rubin. Under Bush who followed Clinton the Treasury Secretary was Goldman Sachs executive Henry Paulson. Under Republican and Democratic administrations Goldman Sachs executives have held key positions. Mr Mnuchin was campaign finance chairman for Trump for 6 months leading to him being chosen for Treasury Secretary. Mnuchin joined Goldman in 1985. During the campaign Trump was also severe in his criticism of financier George Soros, making this a key point in a debate with Clinton for taking Soros's support. This report by Das and Ensign points out that in 2002 Mnuchin left Goldman to run a credit fund set up by George Soros. In 2004 Mnuchin founded hedge fund Dune Capital Management LP with Soros support.  When IndyMac bank collapsed a deal with the government was arranged that covered a part of any future loan losses being taken by FDIC, and Dune was one of several hedge funds and private equity funds including Soros funds that acquired it for $1.5 billion. The renamed IndyMac bank was called OneWest with Mnuchin as chairman. OneWest was sold in 2014 at a large profit to CIT Group Inc. This report says CIT Group took a $230 million charge in July 2015 for accounting problems at OneWest.  During the latter part of the Trump campaign after he joined it in May 2016, Mnuchin set up a joint fundraising agreement with the Republican National Committee. This made it possible for major donors to give to the Republican party and Mr Trump. The head of the Republican National Committee is Mr. Lewis Eisenberg. Having run the technology division at Goldman, Mnuchin was prominent in Goldman and investment banking circles in New York.    ...

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U.S. states face their biggest cash crisis since the Great Depression as a result of rapidly declining tax revenues with a state budget shortfall of $434 billion, says this report in the WSJ. This is larger than the 2019 K-12 education budget for every state combined, or more than twice the amount spent that year on state roads and transportation infrastructure. Rainy day funds will be exhausted by the loss in tax revenues after the pandemic closures of business. Nevada, Louisiana, New Jersey and Florida are the worst hit states. The result will be cutbacks in the future and more pressure on the retirement benefits for police, firefighters, teachers, government workers. Over 60% of the revenues of states come from sales and income taxes to meet the general operating funds. Drops in consumer spending and large job losses from the pandemic affect these revenues. Local government workforces were cut by 1 million people. In Michigan 31,000 state workers were furloughed 2 days per pay period for 10 weeks, and others were laid off. Rainy day funds set up after the 2008 crisis are exhausted. Only federal funds are keeping states afloat with a lot of uncertainty about 2021. The state budget director in Michigan calculated that even if the state got rid of 12 state departments including education environment and treasury, all reserves would be gone, and there would still be $1 billion budget shortfall. The rainy day funds set up after 2008 crisis accumulated $50 billion in U.S. states which have helped somewhat, with federal funds helping tackle shortfalls. Yet 2021 looms with huge shortfalls and expected cutbacks across the U.S. ...

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Keith Bradsher's NYT interview with Raghuram Rajan, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, comes when Rajan has come under criticism from the business sector and the small business support base of prime minister Modi's party. The criticism centers on the drop in oil prices since Nov. 2014, and Rajan's failure to drop interest rates at the Dec. 2, 2014 central bank meeting. Rajan says it was not clear whether oil prices would remain low for an extended period at the Dec. 2, 2014 meeting. Since then new inventory data, EIA estimates and OPEC policy guidance have confirmed low prices will remain for an extended period. Rajan lowered interest rates on Jan. 14, 2015, by one quarter of a percentage point. Under India's setup the central bank chief makes decisions on interest rates, compared to the decisions made by the Federal Open Market Committee at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Rajan says there is full understanding between the central bank and the Modi government economic team led by finance minister Arun Jaitley, Jayan Sinha, deputy minister of state for finance, and chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanium. Modi and Jaitley prefer to rely on the advice and policy direction of economic policymakers with long experience in the U.S. and international circles. Both Subramanium and Rajan bring this level of experience and expertise. Subramanium brings experience from his years at the GATT which preceded the WTO, the IMF, and the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Rajan brings experience at the University of Chicago, and as chief economist of the IMF. Modi is a dilgent listener and policymaker giving careful attention to the best advice, making it unlikely that Rajan would be seen as a holdover from the administration of Manmohan Singh. Other criticism that the business sector has made of Rajan are as financial regulator in asking state banks to increase collateral required from large business firms for large bank loans. Rajan points out the need for business to bear the costs as well as the benefits of taking risks. Under previous governments the state banks allowed large firms to keep their holdings at companies even when the risk taking resulted in losses. Rajan has also not tried to reverse the sharp decline in the rupee, which hurts business firms which took on dollar denominated loans. Rajan has instead followed policy of building up the reserves by buying dollars. The reserves were depleted in 2013 by a policy of currency interventions to reverse that decline. Inflation in India reached 9.9% in Dec. 2013, with policy of the central bank under Rajan set to bring it down to 8% in 2014, and below 6% in 2015, so that India could get out of the trap of persistently high inflation with slow growth. This is critical for a new Indian success story. A goal set by Rajan in Oct. 2012 when he was appointed as central bank chief, was to increase foreign investment and encourage new business so that India was no longer dependent on large companies for growth. This is also critical for a new Indian success story, as the Modi administration and the central bank are both keenly aware. Just as Bernanke and now Yellen at the U.S. Fed face criticism for quantitative easing monetary policy, focus on the high long term unemployed, and not focussing on inflation- with their focus on the long term economic recovery in an environment of low inflation below 2% in the U.S.- India's Reserve Bank faces a different kind of criticism for careful and prudent policies to ensure long term growth....

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Spain released reports by audit firms that showed 62 billion euros would be needed to recapitalize the affected parts of its banking system. This is below the 100 billion euros in rescue funds offered by the EFSF, the eurozone rescue fund, in loans to the Spanish government. The Spanish government is pushing for direct aid to the banks to cut the knot between the banking risk and sovereign risk that is pushing up the yields on Spanish bonds to 7% in June 2012. Spain's 3 largest banks will not be accepting aid funds- Banco Santander, BBVA, and La Caixa.

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The most senior management person of Indian origin in the US financial business, Vikram Pandit came to Columbia University from India at the age of 16, receiving a doctorate from Columbia. He was in a teaching position at Indiana University in Bloomington, Indiana before joining Morgan Stanley and heading its institutional client division. Richard Parsons was leading the committee making the choice, and Robert Rubin was lobbying hard for Vikram Pandit because he is deeply thoughtful, has international background, and can bring the strategic sense that Rubin sees as important. Rubin will help from the sidelines as Head of the Citigroup Executive Committee.

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Interview with German Greens party politician, Jurgen Trittin, who could be finance minister in a Greens supported government. Trittin says his views are similiar to that of the IMF which is calling for debt relief for Greece. If elected in a Greens-SDP coalition, Trittin says, he would end the policy of purely cutting state expenditures.