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87% of the American people support sending back to their countries illegal entry migrants who have committed crimes or offenses in the US in a Pew Research poll and similar in a NYTimes poll. How many of these countries in Latin America allow illegal entry without visas? None. WSJ reports Colombia turns back 2 C-17 military flights Mexico 1 in midair on Jan 27, 2025. This led to a diplomatic standoff with DJT imposing 25% tariffs on increasing in a week to 50% on imports from Colombia entering the US. Colombia agreed to take back the immigrants after the US tariffs.  In 2024 Colombia accepted 124 deportation flights into the country from the US. Yet president Petro objected to these flights on military aircraft and responded on X. DJT responded on Truth Social: "I was just informed that two repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of Illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia. This order was given by Colombia's Socialist President Gustavo Petro, who is already very unpopular amongst his people." DJT then instructed for 25% tariff on Colombian imports into the US which would be raised to 50% if Colombia did not accept the flights in 1 week. DJT said this is just the beginning and also imposed a travel ban to the US. DJT stated this was a threat to the national security of the US. Colombia then accepted the military flights.  Trade two way is $54 billion and Colombia exports coffee, sugar and oil. Colombia imports about $25 billion and exports about $29 billion to the US. Oil exports from Colombia to US are $6 billion, flowers $1.2 billion and coffee $1.6 billion.  ...

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A detailed account on how Corzine ran MF Global, the motivation behind his decisions, and how his plan unraveled. The initial motivation for his decision to invest heavily in European sovereign bonds was to generate profits quickly to preserve MF Global's credit ratings. During his days as a bond trader at Goldman in the 1980's and 1990's Corzine was known to make risky bets to generate large profits. The same strategy failed to work in the highly volatile environment of 2011, when even the U.S. sovereign bond credit rating was downgraded.

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U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan, wins by 84% to his challenger's 16% of the vote in the Republican primary for his House seat of Janesville, Wisconsin. The challenger Nehlen, an executive at a water filtration company, adopted many of Trump's positions including building a wall and had the support of the group Tea Party Patriots. Trump lost to Ted Cruz in Wisconsin and lost in the 1st congressional district covering Janesville by 19 percentage points. Janesville, is a former industrial working class town that has lost many factory jobs over the years, and this election shows the trade issue is not the only issue on people's minds when they vote. That it is easy for a candidate to use it as wedge even when they do not mean what they say by outsourcing themselves, or have few real solutions- especially as public opinion in both parties is opposed to a shift of jobs overseas for the last decade. Ryan said about his win- "I'm a local guy, people know who I am, they know what I believe in and they know I mean what I say and I say what I mean and I don't do it in a mean way." Some Republican experts say Ryan's job of winning his seat very easily, protecting the congressional majority of Republicans, and dealing with Trump as the nominee, is the hardest job in politics. ...

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Geithner in written testimony to the Senate Finance Committee, stated that "President Obama - backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists- believes that China is manipulating its currency." What is noteworthy is that experts are generally in agreement that something should be done about this in cooperative fashion, from Obama's economic team, Obama's own views on this, The National Association of Maufacturers, Labor and so on. The trade deficit with China has continued at high levels even with the current economic slowdown, so this issue remains as one that the Bush administration never really addressed. Simon Johnson, a MIT Professor, and former IMF Chief economist says that even the IMF has not addressed it, and that the Obama administration needs to call China to account. He says this could lead to a spat with China, and if the US does not back down to a row. The concern has been that China would not buy up Treasury debt the way it has in the past, at the same time the question is whether there is some point where the deficit is so large and the US so dependent on foreign buyers of Treasury debt, that it needs to be addressed on a number of levels. Including addressing currency and fair trade issues, a more rational balanced consumption of everything from oil to goods from lowcost Asian countries, to reduce the toll on the overextended American consumer and on the extent of US borrowing needed. From China's perspective there may also be the same concern about export led growth, which may come to be seen as undependable anyway, because with or without some currency advantage the overextended US consumer is not buying anyway, holding off on purchases of everying from cars to flatscreen televisions. With growth at 6.8% in 4th quarter 2008, according to the Chinese Government Statistics Bureau, and expected to drop to 5% in 2009, the export growth model is no longer the panacea for China's unemployed as it once was at 12-13% growth rates in 2006-2007. In fact it may now look to be a better wiser policy if China had increased the value of its currency even more than its slow gradual approach to slow the growth rate from 12-13% to a more sustainable 9-10%, and lower American imports and lower the American trade deficit. Part of the problem in China was the difficulty of applying any sort of brakes once the local governments were set free to expand as much as they could, and prevented any controls from being effective. Steel production continued to grow even after there was evidence of large overcapacity, and government direction failed. Buy some time to shift to domestic consumption based recovery, is what the Chinese policy may be now. Indications of this are evident with its grappling at the issues it has not tackled like giving ownership of land to farmers in rural areas, and to building a healthcare system for the country, both of which are part of a host of issues to shift to domestic consumption based recovery. So unlike the way the media and some experts portray it its not a tough line that the US is taking against Chinese unwillingness. China may want to cooperate.That may be true if China was missing out on 10-13% growth rates, but these were unsustainable anyway and bad policy. At growth rates below 5% as projected by analysts China may want to jettison the export model of growth and build an alternative one. In that case as China shifts to domestic consumption, currency adjustments may be seen quite differently than they were in the past....

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Compromise reached at the October 2010 G-20 meeting in S. Korea to reduce trade imbalances, and for countries with current account surplus exceeding 4% of GDP (China 4.7% and Germany 6.1%) to bring these balances down by 2015. Countries with large current account deficits, Turkey 5.2% and South Africa 4.3%, were expected to bring their deficits down and increase national savings. The US is at 3.2%. The US proposal for a target was accepted by Japan as long as it was not a fixed target but a reference point. Germany was opposed, saying it was a return to planned economy thinking. China did not comment on the issue. Canada, Australia and the UK supported the US position. The compromise was an effort to continue pressure on China to redirect its policies away from exports to increasing domestic consumption, while still refraining from a fixed target. It also takes some of the pressure off a fast track currency rebalancing, with China expected to increase the value of the yuan, but given more flexibility than the rhetoric would suggest....

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Weymouth interviews Colombian President, Juan Manuel Santos. Santos was finance minister, foreign trade minister, and defense minister under former president Alvaro Uribe. The U.S. is negotiating a free trade agreement with Colombia. Santos has improved relations with neighboring Venezuela, which under Uribe were strained upto the breaking point. He is also improving relations with Ecuador, and working to strengthen the Andean Development Council. Santos says Colombia has a smaller drug problem after defeating the major cartels, though mini-cartels still operate in the country. On fiscal responsibility Colombia has introduced a rule in the constitution to limit deficits to 1% of GDP. Santos expects 5% growth in 2011. He hopes to protect Colombia's growth in a global financial crisis by strengthening regional reserve funds, multilateral cooperation of Andean countries, and central bank monetary policies. Santos plans to abolish the DAS intelligence agency in 3-4 months. He plans to create a new intelligence agency and transfer functions such as immigration that were under DAS to other agencies. He has also launched investigations and action against corruption in the government and against public officials working with local mafias. To do this he is working with the attorney general, prosecutor general, the controller general, and police. This has led to criticism from Uribe who sees the changes in policy pointing to deficiencies in the Uribe administration. Colombia is a country with a population of 46 million and plays a significant role in the northern part of Latin America. Santos assumed office in 2010 and was the choice of Alvaro Uribe. His policies have won him a 71% approval rating....

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This interview with Donald Trump by the publisher, editors and columnists of The Washington Post, Ryan Jr., Hiatt, Lane, Marcus, Diehl, Armai, Attiah, provides an exceptional insight into the views of Donald Trump on domestic and foreign policy, on his campaign for president. It is the result of an effort to get Trump to state his policies on different issues without the fuzziness in which Trump has carried out his campaign, often taking different sides of the same issue. In some situations Trump is pressed hard on his positions or controversial statements, to clarify what he has not clarified in the burst of media attention Trump received in the past 6 months, especially on television media. First some myths and realities. A recent March 19, 2016, issue of the Economist cites the Pew Trust in showing that only about 17% of eligible Republican voters voted in the primaries. A person watching television news media coverage on Fox News, CNN, or MSNBC, would get the impression that the voter turnout was tremendous- this is not confirmed by the Pew Trust survey. The Economist points out that had the other eligible voters cast their ballots and even if Trump had a share of these votes, the results might look different. With a highly fragmented vote in the Republican primaries, and about half of the vote going to candidates other than Trump, Trump's voter support would add up to about 8-9% of eligible Republican voters based on the Pew Survey results. The question here would be is this a representative sample of the U.S. or of the Republican Party. And is one likely to make false generalizations about the nature of the Republican party from such a limited sample of voter opinion. Is voter sentiment inadequately reflected, and results hopelessly skewed because of the lack of good candidates in the Republican Party, and Trump's tactical rhetoric appealing to a group of working class Americans left out in the technological progress of the last decade. In the process is the hard work of the founders of the Republic, Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Madison and the framers of the Constitution being undone by a minority of disaffected voters with legitimate grievances on distribution of economic benefits of the technological progress, trade and global manufacturing networks- with a level of divisive rhetoric and decline in levels of public debate rarely seen. These are the clarifications sought from Trump and his response. Attiah raises the question of divisive rhetoric on minorities Hispanics and Black people- Trump says he is only talking about people here illegally, that he gets support from Hispanics here legally. He turns the question to Muslims and says there is a serious problem there that means being careful about how people are being admitted into the U.S. Questions about Trump's controversial statements about a wall with Mexico are not raised. Ryan pushes hard on the question of the libel laws standard that Trump says he is going to change, asking whether this would happen if Trump thinks the reporting "is wrong" but there is no malice. Trump wants the reporting to be fair for him, that reporters call him to check if he did this or that and why, before writing stuff about him, and he sees the reporting from the Post as very bad about him. He says his lawyers would have to tell the media, that he believes he should loosen up the standards so that this kind of coverage does not continue. On ISIS Trump pulls back when asked by Diehl about statements that suggested he would send the number of troops the generals wanted on the ground- estimated at 20,000 to 30,000- saying he would find it very, very, difficult to do that. On a nuclear option for ISIS Trump says he does not favor that. Suggesting that Trump like the other candidates in the election know there are no easy ways to tackle ISIS. Trump would rely on other countries in the region for help with troops on the ground, something that president Obama also favors, with limited results. Diehl also pushes hard on NATO- Trump says hundreds of billions of dollars are going to NATO and the whole burden for defending South Korea falls on the U.S. when it is not now a rich country that it once was. Diehl corrects him by saying for the public record that its not hundreds of billions, and South Korea, Japan pay 50% of the cost for defending their region. Trump wants to see 100% for the Korean peninsula defense borne by the South Koreans and Japan. Trump seees NATO as a good concept but needing more help from Germany, Poland, Baltics. At one point the Washington Post journalists tell Trump this is a position he shares with president Obama. Trump responds to questions from Hiatt about how he would handle the situations in black communities such as Ferguson, Missouri, and Baltimore, Maryland. Trump says he feels law enforcement is important and should play a big role in preventing the destruction of property from day one. He says jobs are what hurts inner cities but offers no solution about how to get the jobs lost in the steel industry for Baltimore, black neighborhoods sitting ironically next to the John Hopkins high technology university complex. Trump brings up the response that jobs could be created if the U.S. simply did not spend money on supporting nationbuilding overseas, a policy that president Obama has supported, and which the public has favored in the U.S. As Holman Jenkins brings up in a column on March 22, 2016 in the Wall Street Journal, these policies are being pursued today, and most of these jobs are not coming back so how would Trump bring them back or do anything about it, especially when Chinese workers in China's factories are being displaced by robotics in places such as Hon Hai factories. The more one thinks about it many of things Trump is saying are already being done, and there are no new solutions Mr. Trump has for today's problems of lack of upward mobility for the middle and working class- a priority for Sanders and Clinton also, not just for Trump. As a television personality and a candidate with a understanding of voter concerns, Trump artfully voices voter concerns of working class Americans for problems that defy easy solutions. Are there risks with Trump's approach that Trump has failed to think through or grasp? Does the unpredictable behaviour Trump suggests that would get allies thinking and trade partners responding lead to unpredictable consequences? Divisive rhetoric creates additional distractions in tackling the problems of the middle class and working class Americans. Divisive rhetoric within the NATO alliance would create additional distractions in tackling the problems of defending the European Union, such as using the very show of unpredictability. Diehl pushes Trump on this question. Would trade threats to China lead to a withdrawal from the Senkaku Islands by China? Trump says he thinks this would cause the Chinese to retreat . What if the Chinese see it differently, in their relations with Japan and South Korea, with a long difficult history, not necessarily in their relations with the U.S. Would a trade war hurt the global economy, and hurt confidence in U.S. fianncial markets just when the U.S. and European economies are staging a recovery, and when the economes of China, Japan and India are in a sensitive phase? These questions could not be raised because of time constraints, but must be on the minds of the editors of the Post and the WSJ, coming from different ends of the political spectrum. How would this help tackle the problem of upward mobility for working class Americans that all the candidates in the presidential election share? ...

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This article in DW.com says Russia's open intervention in Syria with bombing attacks on Aleppo comes with risks. It says the prevailing opinion is that Russia is trying to show its superpower  status in the Middle East and other areas. Other views are that it is showing that it will counter all civil society movements following the one that toppled Yakunovych in Ukraine, and sending a message to civil society movements in Russia. President Obama after meeting with Putin in Hangzhou in September 2016 for 90 minutes, said it appears that Russia is willing "to live with constant low grade conflict" for a long time. DW.com says this is risky for Russia, and it offers so little in return, with the loss of credibility with world public opinion. Compared to Georgia where ethnic Russian ties were involved, and Ukraine where Russia has historically had ties with the eastern part of Ukraine, Russia has no interests of this kind in the region of Syria-Iraq. In its ties with Iran Russia was historically one of the colonial powers like Britain and the U.S., with U.S. relations having worsened only after the 1950's, so no historic ties exist with Iran either.   ...

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U.S. president Obama at the G-7 Summit in Korn in the Bavarian Alps. He talks about the Islamic State having replenished its fighters with a flow of foreign fighters to Iraq continuing unimpeded, and resulting in tactical successes in Anbar province for ISIS. He also firms up the G-7's stand against the Putin government's actions and intervention in Ukraine. This takes time from the other issues of climate change and trade that were part of the discussions. One aspect of the summit was close interaction in the unique setting of the Bavarian Alps between president Obama and German chancellor Merkel. This was shown in unique photo settings, designed to convey the partnership between Germany and the U.S., as the G-7 confront problems in the Middle East and Eastern Europe that require joint leadership.

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Francesco Guerrera of the WSJ interviews Sergio Ermotti, CEO of Swiss bank UBS, and Andrea Orcel, the head of UBS investment bank. He asks Ermotti why the drastic restructuring at UBS, especially the downscaling of its investment banking operation. Ermotti says its because it was time to stop throwing money away on activity that did not cover the bank's cost of capital and the unhappiness of shareholders with the way UBS was operating. The string of bad news from UBS with legal settlements, trading scandals and huge losses have created a special situation at UBS which required drastic action. UBS was able to take the action also because of its successful wealth management business, which will become the core of its future business. Other banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley with large fixed income, currency and commodity (FICC) businesses, get more of their earnings from this unit and are less likely to follow UBS.

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The White House gives details of a new Trade Agreement with Indonesia. There will be zero tariffs on exports to Indonesia of US goods. Indonesia will have lower tariffs of 19% on most products, and higher duties of 40% on goods that are sent through Indonesia to evade tariffs such as from China. Indonesia will place no restrictions on export of rare earth minerals. Indonesia will remove non tariff barriers by action to accept U.S. safety regulations for automobiles, medical devices and pharmaceuticals, and remove preshipment inspections for US agricultural products.

Its significance is that Indonesia is a producer of rare earth minerals giving US full access. Indonesia has a large population of 250 million and this opens up markets for US farmers. It means US energy products and pharmaceuticals, and aircraft makers have access to this market. Because of far flung islands Indonesia will need more Boeing aircraft as it modernizes.

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Under Article 23 of the Basic Law, Hong Kong's constitution stated Hong Kong would pass legislation to stop national security crimes such as treason, secession and espionage. The Basic Law also had a provision to grant universal suffrage. It is important that the universal suffrage or democracy was never granted or made a priority by Hong Kong people during the boom years under the British, as a French commentator for La Croix aptly points out in FR24. He says he watched incredulous as Hong Kongers selfishly pursued money.  The Article 23 also provides for the National Peoples Congress to add laws for national security. The last time that Hong Kong people were faced with the National Peoples Congress passing such laws was in 2003 when half a million came out in protest. This was shelved at that time. It is now law today. Why now? More protests are expected and an election in July would bring more seats in the legislature for the pro-democracy parties, says the WSJ. Another factor is that Hong Kong at one time represented 16% of China's GDP in 1997, today it is down to about 3% in 2019. It is no longer that important to China, even while continual protests from Hong Kong detracted from other vital issues facing China as it shifts away from its trading relationship with the U.S. and as the U.S. imposes strict conditions on trade, investment and technology flows. Under the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed by U.S. Congress in 2019 an annual assessment has to be made by the State Department whether "one country, two systems" is operating. This is why Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State has made his comments that "no reasonable person can assert today that Hong Kong maintains a high degree of autonomy from China." The new assessment would diminish confidence among foreign businesses in the city, in addition to ending its special trading status with the U.S. ...

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About half of people in Britain in a recent poll taken during the second wave of coronavirus say they see a negative impact on mental health. Depression is affecting a fifth of the population in Britain. It has never been more important to be kind to each other and ourselves as the second wave hits a weary and fatigue stricken society.  People found many activities and hobbies to do during the 6 week lockdown period and there was an expectation that spring would bring better conditions. During the second wave of coronavirus there is a sense of a dreary period that goes on through Christmas. The uncertainty from the U.S. elections, Brexit in Britain, the reopening in countries such as India, the loss of jobs and income in countries that range from severe in Brazil, Mexico and Argentina to moderate in China, adds to the anxiety of daily life with surging cases. Creating what amounts to a low grade depressive effect during the second wave that needs to be addressed by the authorites, by health agencies, and in other ways, says this report in The Times. ...

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This report  by Joshua Partlow in the Washington Post shows frequent and extensive contacts between Mexican officials and the Trump administration. Skeptical experts say this is mostly damage control. Yet it has helped defuse tensions on NAFTA and other issues, in some situations having president Trump reverse his stance. Mexico sends 80% of exports to the U.S., making this relationship crucial. Yet the scaling down of plans for a border wall, the emergence of a solution to NAFTA through changes without canceling NAFTA with support from Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary, show the dialogue has preserved relations. Uncertainties loom such as the trade stance of president Trump, and the potential of front runner Lopez Obrador from the opposition party to emerge in upcoming elections as the new president of Mexico. Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico who was a close contendor in previous elections, says he will take a different stand than the current government in negotiations. Mexico's Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray made 12 trips to Washington in 2017 as part of the effort by the Mexican government to preserve NAFTA with some changes. He has relationships with John Kelly and Jared Kushner in the Trump administration that have facilitated his efforts.  ...

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BBC News covers the opposition by business leaders in the U.S. to president Trump's decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate change agreement. Elon Musk of Tesla and Robert Iger of Disney say they will quit working on the president's advisory councils. Walmart, Apple, Google and other companies also opposed the move. Energy companies Exxon and Chevron also opposed the move. This reduces the business community's confidence in and support for the Trump administration. Some analysts see the Trump move as a way to satisfy the mood of his own election base of support among people who see the climate change accord as one more aspect of a rigged system of globalization, a theme Trump has used during his campaign in 2016. During the first 100 days many of the decisions Trump made took into account the views of business leaders from Boeing on the Export Import Bank, of Gary Cohn on tax reforms, of Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary on NAFTA trade agreement. With the investigations in Congress underway the analysts see the move as political to shore up support with the Trump base. Yet it also brings with it the cost of losing support in the business community that has traditionally supported Republican presidents. ...

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The port of Hamada in Shimane perfecture Japan is seeing a jump in foreign trade with Russia. Its on the sleepy side of the Sea of Japan on the opposite side from where major cities like Nagoya and Tokyo are located. Its become a hub for trade with the Far East. Hokkaido Japn's northern island is seeing more Russian tourists. Japanese car companies can cut the time it takes to reach their plants in St Petersburg by shipping from Japan to the Russian Far East and using rail across the country.

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Galston of the Brookings Institution says globalization has hurt workers in manufacturing with job losses and declining incomes. It has produced outcomes that have favored some industries such as tech, and not others such as automobiles which in the past helped create the broad middle class by offering good paying jobs to people with less than a college education. Immigration has created an issue that political leaders outside of the main parties have appealed to in France, the U.S. and Britain. The result is a polarization in the voters that has rarely been seen to this extent before. The middle class in the period from the 1950's to the 1980's is not the middle class that we see today in Europe and the U.S. The 2008 financial crisis added to the problems with the slow and uncertain recovery for some groups such as white men, the less educated, students, and people on minimum wage. 

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Harvard professor Robert Lawrence tells Tom Keene, the Obama administration has'nt paid that much attention to trade and trade agreements. He says this is unfortunate because it is important to lower barriers to trade, create fair trade, and increase U.S. exports.

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The US has expanded access to products from China and other countries gradually leading to a loss of US manufacturing over 2 decades. Today both Republicans and Democrats see the dangers of such economic policies for American workers and families. Mr. Trump first raised this issue that has been raised for a decade or more. Mr. Biden realizes what this means for the future of the Democratic party with the loss of manufacturing communities in the US. For this reason the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and new economic alliances in Asia are being built in a different way. This may not seem much today but as the US shifts its investment, and the European Union shifts its investment, to home countries and countries in Asia and Latin America, Africa, till 2030- 2040 over two decades this will create huge opportunities for the US, Europe, India and other partners in the free world. It is a mistake to think that a better life for the people of the free world can be built on the mistaken idea that the loss of American manufacturing communities was somehow acceptable. The sudden failure of the trade policy with China after the loss of so many American manufacturing communities shows that in the long run only policies that benefit both American workers and foreign workers will work and deserve support. The return of US manufacturing and European manufacturing to US and Europe must therefore be the very foundation of our effort and with it can evolve the building of manufacturing communities in friends in the free world such as India and other Asian, Latin American and African countries.  For India this is the kind of policy that Mohandas Gandhi would have chosen because of his broad and deep knowledge of the world and how it works best, he would have seen policies that benefit American manufacturing communities needed as much as building manufacturing communities in India. The ripping up of manufacturing communities in the US and Europe and what it has done to American and European workers and families, as has happened with globalization, would have been abhorrent to Mohandas Gandhi. This is why the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework and economic alliance in Asia starts with the right principle even in its basic form, with the hard work of all and creative ideas creating the right solution for the Free World as it evolves to 2040. With respect for all, opportunity for all, confidence of all, efforts of all. ...

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See how dysfunctional today's politics have become in the way the Speaker in the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. president expressed utter disdain for each other and their opposite political parties at the State of the Union gathering in the U.S. Congress. Trump focussed on the economic gains for the U.S. in trade and the economy, and sees impeachment efforts as unfair as not rising to the level of high crimes and demeanors defined for that in the U.S. Constitution. Pelosi and Democrats see Trump's style and manner as violating norms for politics followed earlier.  Harry Truman, a president in the fifties never got much respect from Republicans who saw his style and manner as too rustic and Missouri farmlike. Andrew Johnson a Republican during the early post Civil War period after Lincoln, without the education of the upper class was treated with disdain by Democrats. Interestingly both were chosen by icons Roosevelt and Lincoln. This time the focus of attention is a president who comes from outside, motivated to run in politics as he said in his speech in Congress by the wrongs the U.S. suffered from other nations in business and trade. Truman got attention from Roosevelt through the hard work to cut the extensive cost overruns and mismanagement in production for the war effort. Johnson for his loyalty to the Union from a Southern state, Tennessee. All seemed to shrug off the disdain without much discomfort and Truman was known to say- "The Buck Stops Here." ...