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With only 8% of the world's population Latin America has a third of the world's murders. Cities such as Acapulco once a tourist resort in Mexico are now seeing 953 violent deaths out of a population of 800,000. Daily tally for Brazil, Mexico, Central America and other countries in Latin America is 400 murder deaths and yearly 145,000 dead. One in four happens in Brazil, Mexico, Columbia and Venezuela. Mexico 31,174, Brazil 63,808. In China according to the UN it was 8,634. For European Union 5,351.

 

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Three members of parliament from Britain's Conservative Party who backed a second referendum on Brexit to cancel Britain's exit from the European Union left the party to join eight members of the Labour Party who left the Labour party earlier. They formed a new group in parliament called the Independent Group. This narrows Theresa May's majority in parliament to 8 members and increases chances for a new election. Several members of May's cabinet are threatening to quit if Britain leaves the UK without a deal.

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Out of a voter turnout of 50.3%, 60.3% of voters in Ireland approved the European Union Fiscal Treaty.

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The size of Matteo Renzi's win in the nationwide primary, with about 70% supporting him of 2.9 million voters, suggests the mood is changing in Italy for making changes to the old system. Renzi talks about changing education, the government health system, taking a new look at union positions, and coming into a consensus with conservative voters. Renzi and prime minister Letta are moderates from a younger generation in Italy from the same party and need to work together. Angelino Alfano of the centre right is also from the younger generation, marking a shift in Italy.

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The pandemic and ensuing lockdowns, unemployment in the US separated workers from their jobs just long enough to give them a chance to rethink how bad their jobs, incomes, and working conditions were before 2020, says this expert in the NYT. The aid to unemployed workers through long term unemployment benefits, moratorium of rent payments, direct money to households, gave workers enough financial room to make the choice not to go back to poor paying jobs with huge contact risks from coronavirus in the restaurant, fast food franchise, travel and entertainment industries, related industries.  With the Biden administration investing in child care, maternity leave, care for elderly leave, new opportunities for relocating and looking for work were opening for women, and for men who had stuck to old jobs and put up with lousy conditions because of a lack of alternatives. Biden administration's Families and Workers Plans, the effects of the pandemic, helped to shape a new culture of what was possible for workers- a sense that dignity in the workplace was part of culture in America. Restored by FDR/Truman and now again by Biden after two tech booms in the 1920's and the 1990's. A similar situation of a change in culture respecting the dignity of workers and of work is taking place in European Union as stated by SPD leader Olaf Scholz in his election campaign in Germany. Scholz is now incoming Chancellor replacing Merkel. European Union countries have better laws and rules in place for worker retention, and also better worker protections so that the great resignation that happened in America took place in a milder version. ...

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The title is misplaced- it is Vivekananda as Modi's mentor and hero that is central to the ideas he has put forth for Swacch Bharat, Jal Jeevan, to bring education, water and electricity to the common man. Vivekananda was also the inspiration for AatmaNirbhar Bharat. Mohandas Gandhi said that he had read Vivekananda thoroughly and through that reading he had come to be in touch with the common man in India a thousand fold. Modi has also read Vivekananda thoroughly and felt the same way. Vivekananda has said- "Loko ke shiksit karo ke ve atmannirbhar hona sikhe."  If the common man could not get to education, education had to be delivered to the common man. Vivekananda's vision was for an exchange with America and Europe in which he would bring Vedanta and Yoga to these countries in exchange for technology and capital. This is not Modi's project, it is Vivekananda's project, simply brought forward by Modi as service to the nation and the world. It also comes at a time 125 years after Vivekananda expressed these ideas when US and European Union are looking for fresh ideas to restructure their supply chain, and taking a new look at the potential of India and Indians. It is a different America that India faces, not that of the past, after this pandemic and the social plus economic ills that have affected the country. Biden is different, America is different. So is the European Union as it takes on new leadership after the German and French elections, just as America has done. Both look to the future for a partnership with India and Indians to realize India's potential.   ...

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Two weeks after his election Donald Trump says the U.S. will not join the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement during his term in office. Barack Obama took seven years to negotiate the trade agreement which was opposed by trade unions, the auto industry and was unpopular in the midwestern U.S. because of the impact of trade in hollowing out the manufacturing sector. Here Frank Sieren of the DW.com points out that the agreement was not really about trade, as most of the gains of trade had already been realized according to experts. It was part of the "pivot to Asia" to maintain American dominance in the region, says Sieren. After China pulled together some Asian and European countries into its trade agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the U.S. pushed for TPP as a counterweight to the China sponsored trade zone. China says it will try to integrate the countries in TPP into the trade zone it has sponsored. President Trump has said that the U.S. is better off negotiating agreements with each country and not getting into multilateral trade agreements. He fought the election campaign on the basis of the opposition to TPP and trade agreements that unfairly hurt American workers. This could have provided the 110,000 margin of victory in the states suffering from the hollowing out in manufacturing such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. A similar hollowing out in Ontario favored Justin Trudeau's Liberals against the Conservatives in Canada's election. ...

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Hassett and Baker suggest learning from the German experience of the last decade in reducing unemployment, including "kurzarbeit" programs, work sharing, and cooperation between industry, unions and government to reduce unemployment. France is already taking action to learn from the German experience.

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How the election of 1861 happened with intense debate on the issues of the day. Issues ranged from corruption, Southern Democrats dominating the government, and slavery. A amazing picture of the Capitol building from March 4,1861 and Lincoln's inauguration shows what it looked like at the time. Lincoln won about 40% of the vote and had to build his legitimacy which we now take as given when we see the Lincoln Memorial and the words- "In this temple as in the hearts of the people for whom he saved the Union, the memory of Abraham Lincoln is enshrined forever." Throughout it all Lincoln retained his poise and calm demeanor and his faith in the Bible.

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President Macron of France tests positive for coronavirus on the morning of Dec. 17. He will now self isolate for 7 days. Leaders who he has met recently are the prime ministers of Spain Pedro Sanchez and Portugal Antonio Costa. He was seen embracing Antonio Costa. Mr. Macron was part of the tough negotiations for the European trillion dollar stimulus, for a recent all night EU negotiation, and involved in Brexit talks. He met with Charles Michel of the European Council and Ursula Leyen, head of the European Union. All or most of these leaders will now have to self isolate. Mr. Macron wore a mask during the entire period and was careful not to shake hands. 

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Boris Johnson wins an 80 seat majority for the Conservatives in parliament in the 2019 election. He gets a mandate for a quick exit from the European Union by the end of January 2020, and billions of dollars in public spending on infrastructure, the NHS, and public services. He gets an unexpected 364 seats in parliament after winning the support of working class voters hurt by the financial crisis and by industrial decline. Working class voters in the north of England and the Midlands decided to trust Mr. Johnson. The Labour party won 203 seats, its lowest total since 1935.  The British pound surged to its highest level since May 2018, and domestic stocks surged with their best day since 2010. Part of the optimism stems from the size of the win that gives Johnson more flexibility at home and more leverage with the European Union to negotiate Brexit that works best for Britain. Working class areas that suffered for decades with loss of heavy industry, decaying infrastructure and poorer public services put their trust in Johnson's pledge to spend more to revive these areas. Johnson called his government "The People's Government" in his victory speech and promised to spend $131 billion on infrastructure, the National Health Service, schools, and public services. Johnson said in the speech that working class families may- "only have lent us your vote. I am humbled that you have put your trust in me, and that you have put your trust in us. And I and we will never take your support for granted." The other big event in this election is the election win in Scotland of the Scottish National party winning 80% of the seats and seeking a referendum on independence. Mr. Johnson has stated that he clearly opposes this. In Northern Ireland a majority of legislators were elected who favor unity with Ireland. This sets up a constitutional struggle that Mr. Johnson faces in his first elected term in office.   ...

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The US is on track to bring back 350,000 jobs in 2022 that were taken overseas during the two decades of hyper growth in China, according to the Reshoring Initiative. A false idea was created mostly by economists and business that shifted jobs to China during two Democratic and one Republican administration, the Clinton, Obama and the Bush administrations, that this would benefit the American workers and families through lower prices at the retail level. It ignored the severe damage this would do to jobs, incomes and whole communities when factories on which they depended for a living were shipped overseas. It damaged labor in ways that destroyed much of the American working class and the families built during the years of FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson. Business failed during this period to meet the challenge of higher American wages and productivity issues by using innovation and other steps to keep manufacturing at home.  This led to the hyper growth that did not benefit China, because a moderate pace of growth would have helped China control the rampant contamination of its air, water and soil. It also was leading China to a dead end reached during the 2016 election campaign with the election of president Trump with deep discontent from workers in midwestern states. The pandemic simply underscored the need for supply chains that were close to home and reliable in crises. By 2020 president  Biden was committing to a restructuring of the supply chains and pushing forward with it with legislation in the $369 billion Climate bill, and SCIENCE and Chips Act, to make solar panels, semiconductors and other products in the US. Reports from China showed that growth was slight or flat during 2022 and youth unemployment at 20%. The policy was to shift people back from the cities to the rural areas and support the informal economy, a sense of nationalist sentiment, and preparing for a future where the supply chain for the US and the European Union had moved away from China. In the long run the policies now look as ones that benefitted neither the US, the European Union, India or China.  ...

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Bret Stephens of NYT shows a lack of knowledge of European history and remains oblivious of the disastrous consequences of Reagan's policies that he lauds. He cites Reagan as saying to his own audience - "My idea of policy towards the Soviet Union is simple, some would say simplistic. It is "We win, you lose."  The US did not win through Reagan policies, it began three decades of US involvement in wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Middle East, with Iran, that have wasted trillions of dollars and many lives, a period in which it created space for the emergence of China as a world power with newer infrastructure built in a period in which China could quietly rebuild and modernize while the US frittered away its vital resources to the point that funding was missing for vital infrastructure rebuilding and education was not financed by the government as it had done in the early postwar years. The classic European History book by Cambridge historian Brendan Simms, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present" shows that every time any country became too powerful, the others regardless of religion, old ties or other affiliation joined together to counterbalance and restore the balance- Britain, France, Russia, Austria-Hungary were never allowed to become too dominant. The idea that the Soviet Union collapsed because of Reagan's policies is incorrect- it would have collapsed a decade later without Reagan as by the 1980's the people running the government and the ordinary people had realized the system was not meeting the aspirations of Russians. By buying into this myth Americans were embroiled in useless wars and in so doing probably destroyed more wealth in a short time than any period in world history- the trillions of dollars of oil wealth transferred not to countries such as China or India that had to pull themselves by the bootstraps but to Arab desert regions that were itself not benefitted because they went to fight wars and destruction. ...

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This editorial in the Economist points out the dangers for Britian of having a non functioning opposition in parliament to act as a check on government policies. It says Jeremy Corbyn has damaged the Labor Party by being intolerant of other views. It points out that Corbyn is popular with young people in the half million members of the party, yet nationally among Britain's 45 million voters he has an approval rating of -18%. It hurts the Brexit negotiations putting the hard line Brexit supporters who see it in terms of a single issue immigration, in control. It hurts Britain's union, with Scotland in serious difference about Brexit. Corbyn is unpopular in Scotland where Labor needed a comeback. The Economist sees Corbyn as a disaster similar to the view expressed for Europe in a recent DW.com article.

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Trade unions at Ford Motor Company plant near St Petersburg, Russia. Inflation is running at 11% in Russia and workers at the Ford plant are on strike and asking for a 35% raise. Ford pays workers about $800 a month.The Ford Union is independent of other unions and is a grasssroots effort. A one day walkout led to a pay increase of 14-20% in Feb 2007 and more holidays.

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The Economist magazine looks at the mess that Brexit has become and reflects on what this means. The first explanation is that Britons always loathed the evolution of the common market into the European Union. The second that Brexit was simply a result of a simmering civil war between the successful metropolitan  liberal parts of Britain and the provincial conservative parts of Britain. A third one is seen as equally plausible that the country's leadership has failed, that its model of leadership is coming apart.  It says the problem is the chumocracy with David Cameron made the poor decision to go for a referendum on the EU without thinking this through carefully, taking risks with the future of Britain for the sake of narrow party interests. 51% and you are out of the EU was never a fair option when major decisions of such type are handled with great care, even confronted with less momentous decisions other countries use two stage votes or call for super majorities. Basically the whole referendum was flawed to begin with and the people making the decision gambled with the future of Britain and the British economy.  The Economist magazine says the current candidates for Tory leadership, are all inadequate, one even suggesting that Britain should not balk at leaving the EU with no deal because it would create a temporary shortage of Mars bars. It looks at the leaders class in Britain as says it preserves many of the failures of the old establishment by being introverted and self-serving. It sees less expertise and more bluff in their backgrounds in public relations, journalism (Cameron, Johnson) and lighter experience (May as analyst), and sees a singular lack of self restraint because it believes it comes out merit based selection compared to the old establishment. What the Economist magazine sees is meritocracy transformed into crony capitalism for Blair in Labour party and Cameron, Osborne in the Conservative Party. One of the problems it says is the erosion of other ways to enter the leadership ranks from a range of places- business, unions, local government, working class talent, and other places- something that existed in the early postwar years to the sixties. Gradually a shift is taking place already to create new options and broaden the places from which leaders can emerge for broader more effective selection. ...

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An exceptional account by Melissa Eddy of how Germans are reacting to the German government's underinvestment in childcare centers. Germany's cabinet approved a bill that provides $190 monthly child care allowance for mothers who opt not to use day care centers provided by the government. This is supported by the Bavarian party, Christian Social Union, on the grounds that it gives an alternative to mothers to use private day care or nanny care. In practice many of the mothers using the allowance are expected to be lower paid workers who may decide not to work. The government has budgeted $500 million for the allowance for 2013. This is opposed by all opposition parties , and in a rare show of unity by business employer associations and unions, both say it "creates a false incentive to quit work." Axel Plunnecke of the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, says studies show low income families are among those who benefit most from early childhood education. About 100,000 lower qualified and lower paid workers could see this as attractive and quit working. The western part of Germany lacks enough child day care slots, so this is seen as not investing enough where its most needed, and Germany lags behind other countries like France in day care centers. The government is investing $15 million over five years to expand the number of child care centers. The goal is to have 750,000 child care slots by 2013, according to Ms. Kristina Schroeder, the family minister, herself a mother giving birth while in office. The measure was vigorously debated and controversial from the beginning because most many Germans see the $15 million years over 5 years as underinvestment in vital educational infrastructure. The $500 million is better invested in building modern day care facilities, they believe, especially because the children from lower income mothers not benefitting from daycare facilities will still need educational help, and German industry needs more women in the labor force to be competitive. Five years ago under reforms of parental support the 3 years of help to mothers was reduced to 1 year, resulting in an increase in the numbers of women working from 32% in 2002 to 40% by 2011, according to the Ministry of Family Affairs, Senior Citizens, Women and Youth....

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David Enrich of the NYT looks at the collapse of Signature bank and SVB Bank and the role of lobbying that led to president Trump setting up new legislation raising size of banks facing Fed regulatory scrutiny from $50 billion to $250 billion. Signature Bank and the author of the regulatory law after the financial crisis of 2008 caused by faulty bank practices -who in one of the anomalies of Congress joined the bank's board for 7 years and resigned this week-  lobbied with SVB bank for less regulation and government oversight. President Biden has learned from the mistakes of this Obama period, as shown by Jim Tankersley in his reporting in the NYT. this week. And made clear from Biden's State of the Union address in 2023, his effort to focus on cutting the deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years by getting everyone to pay their fair share of taxes.

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US inflation drops to 6% in February 2023 from 6.4% in January. It is the smallest increase since September 2021. Shelter costs rose at 0.8% matching the largest gain since the 1980's. Elsewhere costs increased at at a lower pace for food and gasoline, consumers paid less to heat homes, and prices for used cars, medical services fell. A significant impact on growth is shown for Europe from the drop in oil prices to $77 from a peak of $121 adding as much as 1 to 2 percentage points to growth. A similar impact is expected in the US by keeping prices of oil lower through increase in alternative sources of oil, US increasing oil production, and significantly increased investment in renewable sources. This will help reverse the effects of the Ukraine war on world food and energy supplies and prices through constructive action by the US and its partners in the European Union.

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The trade agreement with Australia starts a process of taking India's exports far beyond the current figure of $400 billion and creating the jobs that come with it. It will double bilateral trade over 5 years to take it to $50 billion. This also shows the wisdom of India not joining the Comprehensive Economic Partnership pushed by president Obama.

The natural ties within the English speaking peoples and the common historical ties within the Commonwealth of Nations that include Australia, Canada, Britain, the Gulf Nations, and South East Asia provide a natural trade and economic region for India.  Next planned are trade agreements with Canada and Britain, and an effort to bring all the six nations in the Gulf Cooperation Council into and Economic Partnership with India, An agreement was also signed with the United Arab Emirates. Very important is a trade agreement with Germany and the European Union for close economic integration with Europe.

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At a joint press conference with French, Romanian and Moldovan foreign ministers German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announces 695 million euros of aid to Moldova as it deals with refugees from Ukraine. Out of about 4.2 million refugees that fled Ukraine 2.4 million went to Poland, and 1.8 million refugees to Romania, Moldova and Hungary. Moldova is one of the poorest countries in the region and is struggling to cope with the refugee influx which is the highest per capita refugees. "We have your back," Baerbock told the Moldovan prime minister Natalia Gavrilita. It's just the "kick off point for a long term continuous support platform for Moldova," said Baerbock. Gavrilita formally signed an application for accession of Moldova to the European Union shortly after the Russian invasion.

Moldova a country with 2.7 million people is dealing with an influx of 400,000 refugees. About 100,000 have decided to stay.

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With the gradual decline in the second wave of the coronavirus in India, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted some of the progress and the plan ahead -to achieve macroeconomic stability in the face of coronavirus spending and needs, the progress in GST for formalizing the economy and getting tax compliance, the infrastructure investment and forward looking timely completion of projects, increasing foreign direct investment flows into the economy, and making India an important part of the renewal of supply chains of America and Europe. The highest ever GST, Goods and Services Tax collection, helps build the framework for revenue to support investment in new infrastructure. Ease of doing business in India was a key goal to increase new inflows of foreign investment. Coordination of domestic and foreign trade and investment policy was part of the effort to build the environment for partnering with US and European Union countries, and UK, so that implementation in supply chain renewal could take place. ...

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Two parts per million of lead in cinnamon is the maxiumum that is considered normal. Five parts per million of lead in cinnamon is considered bad for health. Children are particularly affected by lead contaminated products. High lead contamination in applesauce product pouches lead to recalls by the US FDA recently. In the case of the cinnamon applesauce pouches this Washington Post report says federal investigators have called it "an act of economically motivsted adulteration." The European Union limits lead to 2 parts per million. McCormick & Company says it adheres to strict safety protocols and procures whole cinnamon bark rather than ground cinnamon to control adulteration and contaminant. Frontier Coop which sells brands Simply Organic and Aura Cacia says it tests for heavy metals and follows New York standard of one part per million of lead in spices. People are discouraged from buying in bulk for turmeric and cinnamon as this creates risks of contaminated or adulterated product. ...