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Defense experts in Britain say the part of the Russian army that is modern is not large, and the part that is large is not modern. The Russian advance attack in Ukraine has floundered, says this report in the WSJ. About 25% of the Russian army is made up of conscripts. The hundreds of billions of dollars spent on modernization of the Russian armed forces have been spread thinly, and dissipated also because of corruption and poor management.  The Russian encrypted communications did not work as expected leading to relying on open communications that could be intercepted or jammed. The Russian government and president Putin were still stuck on 2014 and did not realize the determined resistance and the desire for independence of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine is a technologically advanced European country the size of Germany with a population of 40 million, and Russia has an economy the size of Italy, factors that also played a part. The corruption and poor economic conditions in the border Ukrainian republics setup by Russia led many Ukrainians in the eastern border region to question any advantages from Russian rule. The user of poorly motivated conscript soldiers led to many generals and other officers to have to be present on the front lines leading to Russian officer level casualties. The use of antitank weapons supplied quickly from the European Union and the US, and use of small mobile units of Ukrainian volunteer and army forces to tactically destroy the front and rear of miles long convoys of tanks and armored vehicles - leaving the rest of the convoys trapped in between. Logistics also failed to resupply deep inside Ukraine as Russian forces depend on rail based resupply which could not happen without control of cities on the rail lines. The volunteer forces in Ukraine after 8 years of war since 2014 and the immediate assistance with antitank and other military assistance from US, and EU, played a part in the western response to the Ukraine crisis and president Putin's actions.   ...

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Russia's largest companies in metals like nickel, iron ore and aluminium, may end up in state control by the end of the year as the government is loaning money to these companies. These companies owe billions of dollars to state controlled banks and foreign banks and are heavily in debt. This would be a reversal of something that started with the loans for shares under which tycoons like Potanin got control of state assets in metals companies, in exchange for loans to the state. A company that will combine the assets of Norilsk Nickel, UC Rusal, and OAO Metalloinvest is being formed, with the state taking alarge minority stake at the initial stage.

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This columnist opinion in Le Monde reflects the view in Europe that the US is in retreat, and in some quarters such as NYT that the new US foreign policy that sets the Monroe Doctrine as key aspect of foreign policy is a retreat- US setting the rules in the Western Hemisphere around democracy and governance. It says the US has set aside the ambition first proclaimed in 1945 and revived in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union. US administrations under Clinton and Bush took this posture after 1991 of dominant position but it did not reflect reality. US like Russia was dragged into many remote conflicts that had little to do with the standard of living, and economic advancement of the US. The US has a dilapidated infrastructure, broken healthcare system, and operates in a world trading system that has deindustrialized the nation and shipped out jobs and factories for 20 years, and worse is exposed to drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. The Monroe Doctrine 1823 asserted the US right to keep European colonial powers out of America, and it was possible only because the British also supported it in the 19th century till the US built up its Navy under TR and FDR. With Russia recognized as a European power the US is able to get its support for the US to tackle the situation in the Western hemisphere presented by drug and people trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela. Tariffs are intended to get a new world trading system with new rules. Infrastructure building is underway on a scale that will far surpass China by 2030. This is not a retreat but an advancement for the Nation and the American people after three decades of failed policy. It lets the European powers Germany, France and Britain deal with Russia's requirement that NATO withdraw from its borders and recognition of Russia as a Northern European power. European history has shown that since 1700 that when faced with a majority of nations in Europe any dominant power in Europe is forced to negotiate a peaceful resolution of conflict because of it's limited resources to carry on a conflict. This should lead to a peaceful resolution in Ukraine, that allows rebuilding, and also gives the US an opportunity to rebuild its economy and standard of living for the American people. This will be a win-win for both the Russians and the Western Europeans, and both Latin America and the US, China and the US, India/Japan/Brazil and the US. ...

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The US and European Union nations will move more production back home or build shorter supply chains closer to home for security reasons, says this report in FT.  The rebuilding of supply chains has begun and will continue for the rest of this decade. The coronavirus pandemic and the Ukraine invasion has only accelerated this move.

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Andrew Kramer, Tyler Hicks for photographs, and Maria Varenikova reporting from Lyman, show skirmishes between small groups of soldiers along the frontlines between Russia and Ukraine. New recruits with little training are seen by Ukrainians on the front lines. This is the situation in Feb 2023 as the Russian offensive is seen as bogged down in many places.

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Krugman addresses the question about the collapsing ruble in December 2014- why the extent of the collapse reflected more than the drop in oil prices? He focusses on the nature of the Russian system under Putin which is based on crony capitalism. Russian businesses borrowed heavily in dollars but generate much of their revenue in rubles, as a result the situation has imploded with the inability of these businesses to make payments as the ruble declined by about 50%. Russia has not generated trade deficits. Capital flight, money taken out of the country by oligarchs, and the nature of the borrowing in foreign currency has led to a serious compounding of the crisis.

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Marc Santora in NYT shows how Ukraine survived a winter with few lights on and 40% of its electricity grid destroyed. By April Ukraine had survived and was exporting electricity- something of a miracle.

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Deals made with Qatar, Norway, and Poland are helping Germany achieve energy independence. Economy minister Habeck has worked hard to negotiate these deals and bring new leadership to the energy ministry after decades of neglect of Germany's energy independence by chancellor Merkel and Mr. Schroeder who preceded Merkel. This WSJ report shows how Habeck reversed decades of neglect in a few months to establish the foundations of German energy independence.