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WSJ's Reilly says the U.S. Federal Reserve's effort to make stress tests unpredictable and keep the banks guessing is how it is supposed to be done for tests to be effective. This prevents banks from gaming the tests. The Fed has other interests to protect- the nation's financial system and taxpayers. Only by designing the tests correctly can the Fed ensure that it is doing its job of safeguarding the U.S. financial system.

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The slowing job market without layoffs and yet robust, is giving new flexibility ot the US central bank, the Fed. Jerry Powell at Fed does not plan to cut rates and will keep rates steady. This mean housing affordability is affected though the problems in housing have to do with a lack of supply and factors such as retired people hanging on to larger homes and not downsizing. Overall this is a period of robust job growth and moderating inflation, and is a result of the huge investments Biden and Congress in bipartisan way are making to provide industry support to compete with China and in infrastructure investments that yield benefits for overall economic growth and productivity. This is true for investments in science and CHIPS Act.

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Bernanke's speech at the annual Fed Jackson Hole meeting put any future policy action off for the September meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, which will meet for 2 days to allow lengthy discussion of issues. He repeated his focus made in earlier statements that other actions are needed to reduce the headwinds facing the U.S., actions other than the Fed's monetary policy. He called for "good, proactive housing policy," which has been a major missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle of the American economy. Specifically, "families with mortgage debt bigger than the value of their homes facing unusual financial hardship which is also hurting the banks." Martin Feldstein and other experts have repeatedly called for action to help homeowners under water since the mortgage financial crisis hit in 2008. And the government's response has been tepid at best. Most evaluations of the Home Affordable Modification program and other programs to help prevent foreclosures consider them a serious failure of the Obama administration. Higher unemployment has only increased the urgency for government action in this area and good proposals were made by Feldstein and other experts. On the deficit and debt issues Bernanke would like to see debt to GDP ratios "at least stable, or preferably, declining over time." He also cautions that this be done bearing in mind "the fragility of the current economic recovery." He says his estimate for the U.S. economy's growth rate is 0.7% annual rate for the second half, and 'looks likely to improve." His prediction is for inflation to settle at around 2%. His main concern is that the there will be "an erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force" for the long term unemployed....

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Eisinger says the Federal Reserve's staff plays an important role in regulatory reform. He quotes Cornell law professor, Robert Hockett, who says the general counsels tend to become more conservative over time and inclined to support the status quo. This makes required regulatory changes such as increasing the capital reserves at banks and reducing leverage more difficult. Eisinger describes the position of the U.S. Federal Reserve's general counsel, Scott Alvarez, on disclosure of lending by the Fed during the banking crisis, and on capital reserves, which veered more to the position of the banks which preferred less information be released and capital reserves be left at the 5% level than the 6% proposed by the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Comments by Alvarez in nonpublic hearings to Congressional staff members on May 18, 2012, about the JP Morgan London Whale trading losses, according to Eisinger, shows lack of awareness of the overall implications of the breakdown in financial controls and supervision inside the bank....

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With slow growth in the U.S. the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says it will take a wait and see approach to interest rates.

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Term Asset Backed Loan Facility of $1 trillion is aimed at bringing new life to the market for asset backed securities that effectively subsidizes loans to consumers and businesses to buy cars, pay for tution, buy farm equipment or use credit cards. Through the program an investment fund can put down $5 to $14 for every $100 it plans to spend and borrow the remaining $95 to $86 cheaply from the Fed. The investment fund agrees to buy highly rated securities issued by lenders that the Fed deems eligible collateral for the loans. About $10 billion in such loans could be made available to auto lenders, Ford Motor Credit and World Omni Financial Corporation. Modifications to the TALF program are being proposed by the banks, but are being reviewed for risk by the Fed and Treasury.

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About $50 billion of the $170 billion in government money that went to AIG has gone to counterparties that bought credit default swaps from AIG, couterparties like Goldman Sachs, Merrill, Societe Generale, and Calyon another French bank. The Fed has resisted disclosure of these names. If the Fed had not done this insurance experts say some of these banks would have taken hits on their capital cushions, which they keep as reserve against such losses. And they say these banks would have been stretched if that happened. These counterparties were made whole against these losses. Critics ask why these counterparties should not have been compensated with a discount, so that they bore some risk and took a small haircut. But it appears that with the banks in a fragile condition the Fed decided to take this step.

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Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's Economics Minister, and SPD leader, sees his reputation tarnished  by the Ministry's decision to allow Germany's largest supermarket chain Edeka to acquire smaller rival Kaiser, as long as it preserved 8000 of 16,000 jobs. Instead of helping Gabriel the move opposed by regulators on competition grounds is seen negatively in the media and public opinion. It may affect the SPD leaders chances of running for chancellor in 2017, says DW.com

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A small town mayor who says he will fight with Biden for workers and families in every county in Pennsylvania wins the Senate seat against aTV health show host favored by Mr. Trump. The scrappy fight put up by Democrats on their own in different parts of the country is the main takeaway from this election for control of running 36 of America's 51 states and control of Congress. Fighting an election with major legislation on controlling healthcare costs and for renewable energy, infrastructure investments, Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats was forced into a back to the wall fight because of price increases from Russia's war in Ukraine. Voters took notice not falling for the message on inflation alone that is being tackled by the Fed's Jerome Powell, giving room for seeing the larger picture.

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About 565,000 workers are missing in the UK workforce in December 2022. The Guardian asks the question- Will they ever come back? Many left under stress from healthcare work, from the hotel and restaurant business, and from manufacturing during the pandemic. Some took early retirement, some taking care of family members. A similar situation exists in the US. Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, its central bank, and Fed Governors including the head of the Federal Reserve for California are working on ways to get these people back. Brian Deese of Biden's National Economic Council is also working to find solutions including better child care and better benefits for workers. Settling the rail strike on terms attractive for workers and getting rid of onerous rules for workers who could not get paid heath care leave in rail companies, are ways the Biden administration is responding.

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This inflation is different from anything that happened before as it is driven by both demand and supply side situation. Seeing it as only demand side and acting on that would only damage the economy, says Greg Ip in the WSJ. On supply chain shortages there is little the government or the central bank can do to fix this in the short term. This is also why the Families and Workers Plan and Infrastructure plan of president Biden with about $2 trillion dollars in spending is not expected to cause much impact on inflation. The Fed is carefully looking at the situation because of the unique nature of the problem in 2021 to avoid any missteps that hurt the US economy and US growth for the coming decade, on which so much of the hope of America and the world rests.

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Americans in retirement are able to rebuild their savings with interest on money market funds of over 5%. This is the result of 5% percentage points of consecutive rate increases by Jay Powell's Fed. In addition about $121 billion went to savers as they faced $151 billion in higher interest rate costs on mortgages and loans. The result with a strong labor market and lower inflation of about 3% is an economy that is resilient and can provide the 5 or 7 plus  years of growth needed for America to meet the challenges it faces with its allies in the EU, Asia and Latin America, Africa- to tackle climate change, to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, to invest in education and healthcare, to improve worker incomes, and build its manufacturing at home into a strong thriving sector for good paying worker incomes.

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As the US central bank, the Fed, considers cutting high interest rates that affect housing costs and mortgages this WSJ report looks at the consumer debt in September 2024. It says consumer debt is at $17 trillion in 2024. This is high except that when inflation adjusted it is only 3% above the consumer debt in 2019, the peak happened in 2008 before the banking induced financial crisis. Then there is the question of what the debt composition is. Here overall debt has grown by 4% yet credit card debt is up 11%, not a good sign when the interest rates charged by banks is 12%, by cards 22%. Households are paying off credit card debt by borrowing from sources with lower interest costs.

This is more evidence why many households are hurting as debt servicing remains as and additional cost of living issue for Americans.

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The second time around European leaders are more adept at handling a new DJT administration in the US. Scholz meets with Orban in Budapest. All European leaders meet in Budapest to assert a combined approach to Ukraine, to the US tariffs plans. European Union leaders feel confident they can come up with solutions acceptable to Europe, and assert Europe's interests without being dependent on the US.

Even the collapse of the Scholz German coalition government with the FDP party and Lindner defecting is taken in stride by saying that a new coalition will take its place. The loss of the FDP is not seen as critical as it is down to less than 4% in popular support in Germany. Orban and Hungary are also brought into the discussion to present a united Europe.

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The Bernanke Fed's low interest rates are hurting seniors and savers who are earning very little on their savings. This is taking money away from millions of savers and reducing consumption spending by seniors and savers. According to the Labor Department average annual investment income for 24.6 million American households headed by seniors over the age of 65 was $2,564 in 2009. This is down significantly from prior years. A survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute shows that one in three retirees have had to dig deeper into their savings to cover basic necessities in 2010. With inflation at an annualized rate of 5.6% in the first quarter 2011, interest rates of 0.24% on savings accounts do little to cover inflation. There is a sense that this is hurting retirees who have lived prudently and worked hard and on savers of different ages. This actually discourages healthy savings that would protect Americans from job losses and build a safer future. American contributions to bank and 401 (k) accounts is only 4% of disposable income in 2010, according to the Fed. Another danger is that the smaller 401 (k) accounts of the average American family after losses in earlier stock market declines, will again be exposed to the fluctuations and risk in the stock market. This could happen as money is shifted to the stock market in the hope of earning better returns. Seniors are an active voting group, and voting patterns show a shift to Congressional candidates who question Fed policy....