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Former Fed chairman Paul Volcker has opinion about the financial crisis that is deeply felt. He wants the wall that separates banks that take in federally insured deposits from the public separated from the risky trading activities of investment banking houses. That would essentially put us back to the situation that existed before Glass Steagall Act of 1933 was revoked in the 1999. The lessons of the thirties apply today. Says Volcker "people say I am old-fashioned and banks can no longer be seaprated from nonbank activity, but that argument brought us back to where we are today." The Obama advisers like Geithner and Summers are close to the bankers- see the links to Geithner and Summers- and believe that extensively regulating the banks would prevent the banks from engaging in risky practices. However as this reporter Louis Uchitelle of the NYT has not pointed out, the problem is that this is more easily said than done. The very fact that there were close ties between Geithner and Summers and the bankers during the Clinton Administration and Geithner as head of the New York Fed under the Bush administration, and the aggressive lobbying by the investment banks like Goldman and others who are now banks to water down any regulation on derivatives trading and on other supervision, can only lead to a situation where neither Volcker's solution or the Obama people's solution is put into effect. THis will only invite another crisis. With the public anger even worse as the bonuses and compensation from trading profits by Goldman and other banks come through cheap money created by the Fed- see links- for the purpose of addressing the financial crisis. Volcker would separate JP Morgan and Bear Stearns trading operations and separate Merrill from BofA, and Goldman would revert from abank holding company to a investment banking house. Volcker believes that the pay on Wall Street "has gotten grotesquely large." Volcker believes that the separation of deposit taking institutions from investment banking would reduce trading profits and consequently automatically reduce these large bonuses. So is Volcker being ignored by the Obama administration, even as his glow helped the Obama people win public support as a better steward of the economy than McCain during the election campaign? During the crisis Volcker headed the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board. Today he is rarely seen in his Washington office, he talks to administration officials mostly on the phone, at 82 he is not knocking on doors, and the advisory board has been assigned to look at the tax law on overseas corporate profits. Volcker agrees with most of the Obama plan on financial regulation including higher capital requirements and and pay guidelines, but if this is not enacted because of lobbying by bankers then the nation will have the benefit of neither the Volcker Plan or the Obama Plan. ...

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Under the new government of Chancellor Scholz in Germany, Robert Habeck of the Greens will head a new expanded Economy ministry that also covers climate and energy policy, his ally Annalena Baerbock will head the Foreign Ministry. FDP leader Christian Lindner will head the Finance Ministry. Mr Scholz favors closer fiscal support for Europe as he plans to modernize the German economy and continue major support to European economies.

A partner in his own law firm, Scholz was mayor of Hamburg between two jobs working as first minister of labor and social affairs in 2007-2009 and vice chancellor, finance minister in 2018. It is as finance minister that Scholz pioneered the new approach of Germany to help massively other countries in the European Union in facing the pandemic with shared debt and public finances.

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This time there is less exposure for foreign investors as the Turkish lira drops because Turkish holdings were reduced. Turkey bondholdings have come down by half and holding of Turkey stocks down by 40%. The decline of the lira also reduced Turkish assets in benchmark emerging market indexes - in MSCI to 0.2%, and in JPMorgan's bond index to 1.1% from 5%. 

So far the situation in Turkey has not spread to other emerging markets such as Russia, Mexico and Brazil. With the Fed looking at raising interest rates earlier than planned, slower growth in China that takes in developing country commodity exports, emerging market assets are under some pressure. The WSJ Dollar Index was at a 15 month high on Nov. 24 and continues to be close to this.

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Nancy Faeser, says "this is a strong commitment to a modern Germany." Germany's Interior Minister is pointing to the new dual citizenship law that will enable Americans as well as the many Polish and Turkish people in the country to have dual citizenship. Germany now joins Sweden, Ireland, France and other countries where dual citizenship is allowed. There are economic reasons for this as Germany needs to attract highly skilled immigrants for its labor force. Faeser says Germany will attract the most qualified people in the world only if it can ensure they enjoy full democratic rights in the foreseeable future. The CDU and Merkel for years opposed any changes to the immigration laws. It is the SPD, the Greens and the Free Democrats that are making these changes as Germany looks to the future.

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"My economic plan is working and we are just getting started," says president Biden about the US economy as it registers growth of 2.4% in the second quarter. Inflation is cut to 3% from about 9% last year. Even US central bank Fed increases in rates by 5 percentage points since March 22 at consecutive bank meetings has not slowed down the US economy enough. Biden says there is nothing accidental about this. Biden pushed investment in the US. Business investment increased by 56% in the last quarter accounting for a third of the economic growth, much of it in infrastructure, in bridges and roads, in manufacturing plants. Biden administration has allocated $299 billion in infrastructure funding for projects, another $503 billion is done by private investment. And more is coming down the pipeline.

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Strack of DW.com reports on the 2016 CDU convention where Merkel received 89.5% of the vote. Merkel receives applause for the burqa ban, and her denunciation of populist hate sentiment, of Islamism and parallel societies, parallel cultures. The best passages of Merkel's speech says Strack, were about reunification, about how she started in politics from the natural sciences, her start at SPD, then shifting  quickly to the "Democratic Beginning" leading to the CDU. "Head into the open," "that is where freedom is," and says Strack she had the hall listening to a chancellor speaking with emotion when in the past she has been cool and reserved. Parallels to the 1994 campaign of Kohl for a fourth term when enthusiasm came only from "generation" Kohl are being made.

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"So that Berlin remains our home" posters and signs are all over Berlin, Germany. The escalating housing crisis in Berlin is leading to a referendum on September 26, same day as national elections. This referendum is about taking over developer housing over 3000 units with compensation and is supported by a small majority of voters in Berlin. The referendum  required gathering 175,000 signatures in a few months. The Left Party in the Berlin coalition government of SPD, Greens and Die Linke supports it , Greens are skeptical and SPD is opposed to expropriation. The referendum needs 25% yes votes to expropriation which may not happen. More likely is that housing developers will have to work with the government to come up with solutions to the housing crisis in Berlin.  The referendum is constitutionally compatible with the Basic Law in Germany which says- " Land, natural resources and means of production may, for the purpose of nationalization, be transferred to public ownership or other forms of public enterprise by a law that determines the nature and extent of compensation." Private developers expansion has made housing less affordable for Berlin residents and the target is Deutsche Wohnen, which owns 113,000 housing units in Berlin. This trend shows how different the public opinion is in Berlin after decades in which the housing concerns of local residents were set aside. Clearly Germany needs to invest more in housing infrastructure that is affordable and enhances the opportunities for ordinary workers in Berlin to live in the city. ...

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WSJ's Reilly says the U.S. Federal Reserve's effort to make stress tests unpredictable and keep the banks guessing is how it is supposed to be done for tests to be effective. This prevents banks from gaming the tests. The Fed has other interests to protect- the nation's financial system and taxpayers. Only by designing the tests correctly can the Fed ensure that it is doing its job of safeguarding the U.S. financial system.

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Bernanke's speech at the annual Fed Jackson Hole meeting put any future policy action off for the September meeting of the Fed's Open Market Committee, which will meet for 2 days to allow lengthy discussion of issues. He repeated his focus made in earlier statements that other actions are needed to reduce the headwinds facing the U.S., actions other than the Fed's monetary policy. He called for "good, proactive housing policy," which has been a major missing piece in the jigsaw puzzle of the American economy. Specifically, "families with mortgage debt bigger than the value of their homes facing unusual financial hardship which is also hurting the banks." Martin Feldstein and other experts have repeatedly called for action to help homeowners under water since the mortgage financial crisis hit in 2008. And the government's response has been tepid at best. Most evaluations of the Home Affordable Modification program and other programs to help prevent foreclosures consider them a serious failure of the Obama administration. Higher unemployment has only increased the urgency for government action in this area and good proposals were made by Feldstein and other experts. On the deficit and debt issues Bernanke would like to see debt to GDP ratios "at least stable, or preferably, declining over time." He also cautions that this be done bearing in mind "the fragility of the current economic recovery." He says his estimate for the U.S. economy's growth rate is 0.7% annual rate for the second half, and 'looks likely to improve." His prediction is for inflation to settle at around 2%. His main concern is that the there will be "an erosion of skills and loss of attachment to the labor force" for the long term unemployed....

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Eisinger says the Federal Reserve's staff plays an important role in regulatory reform. He quotes Cornell law professor, Robert Hockett, who says the general counsels tend to become more conservative over time and inclined to support the status quo. This makes required regulatory changes such as increasing the capital reserves at banks and reducing leverage more difficult. Eisinger describes the position of the U.S. Federal Reserve's general counsel, Scott Alvarez, on disclosure of lending by the Fed during the banking crisis, and on capital reserves, which veered more to the position of the banks which preferred less information be released and capital reserves be left at the 5% level than the 6% proposed by the FDIC and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Comments by Alvarez in nonpublic hearings to Congressional staff members on May 18, 2012, about the JP Morgan London Whale trading losses, according to Eisinger, shows lack of awareness of the overall implications of the breakdown in financial controls and supervision inside the bank....

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The slowing job market without layoffs and yet robust, is giving new flexibility ot the US central bank, the Fed. Jerry Powell at Fed does not plan to cut rates and will keep rates steady. This mean housing affordability is affected though the problems in housing have to do with a lack of supply and factors such as retired people hanging on to larger homes and not downsizing. Overall this is a period of robust job growth and moderating inflation, and is a result of the huge investments Biden and Congress in bipartisan way are making to provide industry support to compete with China and in infrastructure investments that yield benefits for overall economic growth and productivity. This is true for investments in science and CHIPS Act.

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With slow growth in the U.S. the Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell says it will take a wait and see approach to interest rates.

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Term Asset Backed Loan Facility of $1 trillion is aimed at bringing new life to the market for asset backed securities that effectively subsidizes loans to consumers and businesses to buy cars, pay for tution, buy farm equipment or use credit cards. Through the program an investment fund can put down $5 to $14 for every $100 it plans to spend and borrow the remaining $95 to $86 cheaply from the Fed. The investment fund agrees to buy highly rated securities issued by lenders that the Fed deems eligible collateral for the loans. About $10 billion in such loans could be made available to auto lenders, Ford Motor Credit and World Omni Financial Corporation. Modifications to the TALF program are being proposed by the banks, but are being reviewed for risk by the Fed and Treasury.

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About $50 billion of the $170 billion in government money that went to AIG has gone to counterparties that bought credit default swaps from AIG, couterparties like Goldman Sachs, Merrill, Societe Generale, and Calyon another French bank. The Fed has resisted disclosure of these names. If the Fed had not done this insurance experts say some of these banks would have taken hits on their capital cushions, which they keep as reserve against such losses. And they say these banks would have been stretched if that happened. These counterparties were made whole against these losses. Critics ask why these counterparties should not have been compensated with a discount, so that they bore some risk and took a small haircut. But it appears that with the banks in a fragile condition the Fed decided to take this step.

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Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's Economics Minister, and SPD leader, sees his reputation tarnished  by the Ministry's decision to allow Germany's largest supermarket chain Edeka to acquire smaller rival Kaiser, as long as it preserved 8000 of 16,000 jobs. Instead of helping Gabriel the move opposed by regulators on competition grounds is seen negatively in the media and public opinion. It may affect the SPD leaders chances of running for chancellor in 2017, says DW.com

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The Senate Big Beautiful Bill $6000 per person deduction makes Social Security tax free for 88% of Americans over 65 years. This is close as one can get to making Social Security benefits tax free for people over 65 years. It is a move that is seen favorably by social security recipients. Protecting the elderly on fixed incomes when the cost of living went up 12% in just 1 year in 2022 is an essential step for any administration that cares for the daily lives of the American people. In this sense the DJT administration has made a bold move in three key areas no taxes on social security benefits, no taxes on tips which address employment in hospitality/restaurants, and doubling the child care benefit for mothers, tackling key population sectors. To pay for this and keep the deficits down the dollar strong, one other action was taken- to increase investment in the economy and in manufacturing by allowing expensing of investment 100%. Fed chairman Powell repeatedly states he is very optimistic about this action generating the kind of investment boom American needs to restore good standards of living.   ...

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The Bernanke Fed's low interest rates are hurting seniors and savers who are earning very little on their savings. This is taking money away from millions of savers and reducing consumption spending by seniors and savers. According to the Labor Department average annual investment income for 24.6 million American households headed by seniors over the age of 65 was $2,564 in 2009. This is down significantly from prior years. A survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute shows that one in three retirees have had to dig deeper into their savings to cover basic necessities in 2010. With inflation at an annualized rate of 5.6% in the first quarter 2011, interest rates of 0.24% on savings accounts do little to cover inflation. There is a sense that this is hurting retirees who have lived prudently and worked hard and on savers of different ages. This actually discourages healthy savings that would protect Americans from job losses and build a safer future. American contributions to bank and 401 (k) accounts is only 4% of disposable income in 2010, according to the Fed. Another danger is that the smaller 401 (k) accounts of the average American family after losses in earlier stock market declines, will again be exposed to the fluctuations and risk in the stock market. This could happen as money is shifted to the stock market in the hope of earning better returns. Seniors are an active voting group, and voting patterns show a shift to Congressional candidates who question Fed policy....

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A small town mayor who says he will fight with Biden for workers and families in every county in Pennsylvania wins the Senate seat against aTV health show host favored by Mr. Trump. The scrappy fight put up by Democrats on their own in different parts of the country is the main takeaway from this election for control of running 36 of America's 51 states and control of Congress. Fighting an election with major legislation on controlling healthcare costs and for renewable energy, infrastructure investments, Mr. Biden and fellow Democrats was forced into a back to the wall fight because of price increases from Russia's war in Ukraine. Voters took notice not falling for the message on inflation alone that is being tackled by the Fed's Jerome Powell, giving room for seeing the larger picture.

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About 565,000 workers are missing in the UK workforce in December 2022. The Guardian asks the question- Will they ever come back? Many left under stress from healthcare work, from the hotel and restaurant business, and from manufacturing during the pandemic. Some took early retirement, some taking care of family members. A similar situation exists in the US. Jay Powell at the US Federal Reserve, its central bank, and Fed Governors including the head of the Federal Reserve for California are working on ways to get these people back. Brian Deese of Biden's National Economic Council is also working to find solutions including better child care and better benefits for workers. Settling the rail strike on terms attractive for workers and getting rid of onerous rules for workers who could not get paid heath care leave in rail companies, are ways the Biden administration is responding.

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This inflation is different from anything that happened before as it is driven by both demand and supply side situation. Seeing it as only demand side and acting on that would only damage the economy, says Greg Ip in the WSJ. On supply chain shortages there is little the government or the central bank can do to fix this in the short term. This is also why the Families and Workers Plan and Infrastructure plan of president Biden with about $2 trillion dollars in spending is not expected to cause much impact on inflation. The Fed is carefully looking at the situation because of the unique nature of the problem in 2021 to avoid any missteps that hurt the US economy and US growth for the coming decade, on which so much of the hope of America and the world rests.

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Americans in retirement are able to rebuild their savings with interest on money market funds of over 5%. This is the result of 5% percentage points of consecutive rate increases by Jay Powell's Fed. In addition about $121 billion went to savers as they faced $151 billion in higher interest rate costs on mortgages and loans. The result with a strong labor market and lower inflation of about 3% is an economy that is resilient and can provide the 5 or 7 plus  years of growth needed for America to meet the challenges it faces with its allies in the EU, Asia and Latin America, Africa- to tackle climate change, to rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, to invest in education and healthcare, to improve worker incomes, and build its manufacturing at home into a strong thriving sector for good paying worker incomes.

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As the US central bank, the Fed, considers cutting high interest rates that affect housing costs and mortgages this WSJ report looks at the consumer debt in September 2024. It says consumer debt is at $17 trillion in 2024. This is high except that when inflation adjusted it is only 3% above the consumer debt in 2019, the peak happened in 2008 before the banking induced financial crisis. Then there is the question of what the debt composition is. Here overall debt has grown by 4% yet credit card debt is up 11%, not a good sign when the interest rates charged by banks is 12%, by cards 22%. Households are paying off credit card debt by borrowing from sources with lower interest costs.

This is more evidence why many households are hurting as debt servicing remains as and additional cost of living issue for Americans.

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The second time around European leaders are more adept at handling a new DJT administration in the US. Scholz meets with Orban in Budapest. All European leaders meet in Budapest to assert a combined approach to Ukraine, to the US tariffs plans. European Union leaders feel confident they can come up with solutions acceptable to Europe, and assert Europe's interests without being dependent on the US.

Even the collapse of the Scholz German coalition government with the FDP party and Lindner defecting is taken in stride by saying that a new coalition will take its place. The loss of the FDP is not seen as critical as it is down to less than 4% in popular support in Germany. Orban and Hungary are also brought into the discussion to present a united Europe.