LyrArc Article Gist
For the first time since the 1995 Srebrenica massacres of 8000 Muslims the Serbian police has made arrests of persons involved in the killings. Serbia is trying to make amends and come to terms with the past and set the path to the future as a new member of the European Union. This is a major step for reconciliation in the Balkan region through efforts for closing this troubled chapter in its history. Serbia's deputy war crimes prosecutor, said about the 8 arrests- "We have never dealt with crimes of this magnitude. It is very important that Serbia take a clear stance toward Srebrenica through the judicial process. We have sent a clear message that the Srebrenica victims, perpetrators or even potential war crimes will not be forgotten." For Serbia and the region this long awaited step brings the Balkans back into the fold of civilized Europe.

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT editorial on December 5 the day after the second effort by the automakers to present a case for a bailout loan, this time for $34 billion. The NYT says this time the automakers CEO's left 2 things behind in Detroit. One is their resignations, and other is plans to truly achieve the fuel efficiency gains possible comparable to what the European Union is aiming for, which is 50 miles per gallon in 2015. Instead the congress enacted under the influence of automaker lobbying groups a watered down fuel efficiency bill according to NYT, of 35 miles per gallon by 2020. It says experts believe that 43mpg could be achieved by then (2020) even without any technological breakthroughs and 50mpg could be achieved by making smaller cars. Only new management says the NYT could bring the deep cultural change needed for the industry in Detroit.

LyrArc Article Gist
Erlanger and Smale of the NYT describe the reaction in Europe, from Chatham House in London, Bruegel think tank in Brussels, and the German Council of Foreign Relations in Berlin, to the election results in the first round in France. There is a sense of relief that the poll results held and that Macron is the front runner, yet a sense that the issues of social justice, taking account of the marginalized need to be addressed. The parliamentary elections in June, soon after the second round of voting, are also seen as a factor as governing without the support of the legislature would mean very little gets done. For the first time the main parties are not being represented in the presidential office, with a fractured Socialist party and the Republican Party candidate not in the second round.  The Dutch elections, followed by the French and German elections could push back the populism in a negative direction of withdrawing from the global community and openness in the economy.  The economic reform message of  Macron resonates in Germany, as France suffers from high unemployment and needs to build a stronger economy. A stronger French economy is the sure way to bring French people together after the divisions of the current election.       ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The facts that guide one's understanding of what is happening in Greece relate to the size of the public sector for a small country like Greece, and the failure of people from all classes of society from cab drivers and civil servants to small business and the shipping industry, to pay taxes. These two twin facts and a splurge of spending during and after the 2004 Olympics without proper and correct account keeping, has brought Greece to its present situation. One estimate is that every Greek person would owe 27,000 dollars, that is how much the national debt has swollen to- a massive 300 billion euros debt for a small country. This is 115% of its GDP. And the public sector spending simply went unchecked by different governments trying to win votes. Estimates are that the public sector makes up 40% of Greece's GDP, and government workers are 15% of the active workforce. Not paying taxes has become a societal trait in Greece, as a result the government does not collect an estimated 25 billion euros a year in taxes each year. And this does not include the taxes that would be paid if owners in the Greek shipping industry were to not take advantage of an exemption from paying taxes granted by the government. The result- Greece's socialist government of Prime Minister Papandreou has accepted a $110 billion euro bailout from the European Union and the IMF which comes with cuts in public spending and austerity measures designed to reduce the deficit form 13.6% of GDP to 3% in 3 years. Its important to understand what is happening in Greece, because from Prime Minister Cameron in Britain (with his cuts in government department spending of 25% over 5 years), to Prime Minister Naoto Kan of Japan (with a planned doubling of the sales tax), the mood in Europe and Japan is shifting to austerity measures that would correct excessive government spending. In Greece Papandreou and his ministers are making serious efforts to change a culture of not paying taxes. See the groups and links for Papandreou and Greece....

LyrArc Article Gist
In upcoming national elections the anti-immigration narrative pushed by prime minister Viktor Orban is no longer sounding convincing to voters. One retiree in a local election is cited here as saying there is no one at the border, that he is tired of hearing that narrative. The number of people at the border from Africa and Asia has dwindled to single digits from 200,000 at one time. All parties in the country are opposed to it.  Hungary's economic growth of 3% in recent years since 2013 is helped greatly by aid from the European Union.  Large public works programs have brought unemployment down to 3.8%.  As a result Orban is likely to win about half the seats in parliament down from about two thirds majority. The other half of the seats will be divided among parties from the Greens, Socialists, Centrists and the right wing. As in Hungary the anti-immigration narrative should gradually fade in the rest of Europe including Britain. The vote for Brexit was close and the anti-immigration narrative helped boost the yeas vote margin. As a result of the change in public perception there will be questions about how much a decision that affects Britain for future generations should be made on the basis of an event that happened in 2015-2016. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Katya Adler, Europe Editor of the BBC, points out the change in Germany as AKK, Anne Margaret Kampbrauer, the new leader of the ruling CDU party, brings a change of tone in its outreach to Britain. AKK is slated to be the next chancellor. Her vision was expressed in a letter to The Times saying with other Germans that her wish was for Britain to remain in the EUroepan Union, that she was asking Britain to reconsider. She also supports a second referendum on Brexit.    There is also anxiety in Germany about the effects of no-deal Brexit taking out 0.5% of German GDP at a time when Germany's economy is struggling in 2019. About 100,000 job loss is expected from no-deal Brexit in Germany. As Germany's tone is changing, AKK offers a new face in German relations with Britain that looks towards building a better relationship with Britain. Could this change minds in Britain as a new mood takes place in Germany, and in some ways in France with the emergence of populists in recent years calling for France to leave the EU. AKK tell BBC that Brexit has been a strain for all of us, that in some ways it has paralyzed us. She tells the BBC's Adler that anything that keeps Britain in the EU is something that would make her personally very happy. Rarely have German leaders or public expressed it in this way. Compared to the indifference of the past Germans and Britons having second thoughts offer some more light to the issues of Germany and Britain at a more personal level. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A look at the role that David Cameron played in the Brexit vote. Cameron did this by promising to hold a referendum to assuage hard line Tories within his Conservative Party in Britain who feared that the right wing Independence Party of Nigel Farage would cut into the Tory vote and hand the 2015 election over to the Labour Party. Cameron made the pledge in 2013. The Brexit vote referendum happened in June 2016 with a slight margin for the "Leave" vote as voters shifted to an anti-establishment vote, and a wave of immigration from Africa and Arab countries in conflicts into Europe created fears of uncontrolled immigration. Both were factors that had little to do with Britain's place in Europe over decades in post war Europe, and not permanent shifts in sentiment. Cameron agreed because he thought the would lead to a result favoring the Remain Vote to stay in the European Union. Cameron badly miscalculated leading to the mess Britain is in today with no clear path forward and negative effects on the economy of Britain. The Labour Party now favors a second referendum as voter sentiment again shifts following the failure of the Theresa May Conservative government to lead in the way forward, and splits in the Conservative Party. Immigration from Arab countries and Africa is now restricted and down to a small trickle. The problems generated by Brexit for the economy, Northern Ireland, business uncertainty, and second thoughts among pro-Brexit supporters, are leading to a rethink of the course set by the referendum based on a temporary shift in sentiment. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DW.com's Barbara Wesel describes the chaos in the Conservative Party and the British prime minister Theresa May's stubborn pursuit of Brexit. Speaking in the House of Commons Theresa May showed no flexibility to reconsider her decision to present a 558 page Brexit document detailing the negotiated agreement to parliament for a vote, even though it lacks the support of the Labour Party and prominent Conservatives in her government. Two Brexit Secretaries have resigned. The Transport minister resigned calling for a second referendum on Brexit. May continues to stick to her basic argument that she is following the wishes of the British people given in the first referendum. Even though she is Conservative MP for Maidenhead supporting Remain, and campaigned to stay in the European Union. Wesel says May has proved once again that she has an unrelenting stubbornness. Lacking even the ability to take into account the variety of opinions carefully presented in parliament from different angles by MP's. Once May has latched on to an idea there is no way she can be drawn off her course, and she has continued saying it is in "the national interest" at every turn without defining this in the particular context. The session in the House of Commons clearly showed Brexit's flaws, as in reality the Conservatives themselves have serious misgivings about the far right Brexiters push for separation without clear understanding of where this takes Britain and the British economy. The Labour Party sees this as an opportunity for a change in government. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Sunderland in the northeast of England voted 69% for Leave in the Brexit referendum. It is one of the most deprived cities in the UK and after years of neglect by leaders and political elites it voted Leave to express its resentment of its treatment. Following the collapse of the shipbuilding industry the northeast of England has suffered from high unemployment with a third of the children living in poverty. Yet today there is a marked shift and cooling of the sentiment for Leave, as many of the promises made by the Leave campaign that more money would go to National Health Service, the economy would improve, and contributions to the EU would be diverted to England, appear to be broken. About $445 million was sent to the northeast of England from 2014 and helped the local economy. Benefit cuts, and austerity measures were continued by the May government in the northeast causing people to have doubts about the Brexit Leave campaign's promises. The EU's requirement that people of EU origin could work in the UK had riled residents in the northestern England deprived areas. Now a more realistic assessment of withdrawing from the EU is now taking place. About 60% of the exports of the northeast of England go to the European Union. The effect of this will be felt in this part of England and the costs of Leave are finally sinking in  for Sunderland residents. A Nissan factory in the area is a major employer and the government has stepped in to protect jobs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The chairman of the high level group on Financial Supervision for the EU says central banks neglected their roles as guardians of financial stability. He is proposing asystemic-risks council with central bankers from all over Europe as members , and with the clear intent of overseeing financial stability. Jacques Larsiere's plan is part of the overhaul of the regulatory framework for the EU. It has been endorsed by the European Commission.

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany is well known for its auto industry and machinery industries. It lags well behind other countries in its investment in internet infrastructure. Germany ranks 33rd worldwide in average monthly fixed broadband connection speeds, and 47th in mobile, according to Speedtest Global Index. The U.S. ranks No. 7 in fixed broadband and 37th in mobile. To get a sense of how far behind the U.S. and Germany are in mobile infrastructure and in average monthly mobile connection speeds consider Croatia is No. 9 and Canada is No. 3, Australia No. 4 in mobile. Consider in fixed broadband Romania is No. 4 and Hungary No. 10. What happened? In Germany strict fiscal rules prevented investment in infrastructure without considering how much good essential infrastructure can add to economic growth. There was a decade of disinvestment under Merkel in the country's infrastructure. Consider that Germany relies on copper for rather than glass fiber for linking end users to the fixed line network. Deutsche Telekom laced a strategy for investing in a new network in the last decade when early on in the decade Telecom companies inFrance ad Portugal were rolling out new all fiber networks in keeping with a 2010 European Union report that recommended EU countries invest in fiber. So that today after a decade of disinvestment in essential infrastructure Germany is finally waking up to the fact that its development is uneven at best and lopsided for certain with production facilities in cars and other machinery but failure to invest in the technology that drives machines and cars. Even the updating excuse given by Deutsche Telkom of vectoring or reducing interference sounds strange a decade ago as stated in this report, using the same cooper connections simply reducing noise, a failure of singular proportions to modernize. As a result some of the fastest connections are now in Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea in Asia or countries such as Norway, Netherlands, Switzerland in Europe. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
"Made in China 2025" has caused consternation and alarm in Washington about China's effort to dominate key industries of the future with state subsidies. This report in WSJ shows the European response to China's effort. A survey by the EU Chamber of Commerce in China shows 58% of companies have not been able to participate in Made In China initiatives. There is concern that global supply chains are not being utilized in robotics, aerospace, and electric vehicles, three areas under China's program.  62% of companies say they didn't know whether this was leading to increased discrimination against foreign companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
Juan Carlos I is unique among monarchs in the world in the way he has worked tirelessly to promote Spanish interests overseas, and promote Spain's vibrantly functioning democracy, after the pain and stagnation of the Franco years. He did this in the last three decades as Spain gradually returned to normal political and economic life and joined the European Union. There is a sense of personal responsibility for the past in Spain in the sense of making every effort to learn from the mistakes of the past, that one finds in Germany, and the king shares this feeling. Juan Carlos actively participates in political meetings including the association of Latin American countries and promotes Spanish business in a way that is not seen anywhere else in the world, and not in the British monarchy, the closest comparable monarchy in Europe. During the current economic crisis he is rallying Spanish business with the message: export, export, export. Juan Carlos's son is also being prepared for a similiar role....

LyrArc Article Gist
The jobless rate of 7.1% in Germany in April 2011, is down from 7.8% in the prior year. In the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, where BMW and Daimler are located, the unemployment rate is down to 4% in April. Jurg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, says this could lead to higher inflation. Inflation went up to an annual rate of 2.6% in April. The ECB raised the official interest rate to 1.25% in April, but Kramer says the rate appropriate for Germany is more like 3%. The euro is rising with expectations that the ECB will raise rates further. The euro was at $1.49 on April 28, 2011. Kramer also cites some factors that could slow inflation and wage increases in Germany- most union wage contracts continue till 2012, and the change that allows people from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic to be easily hired.

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF's estimate of extra aid needed for Greece to meet the damage done in the first 6 months of 2015 is $60 billion euros ($66.6 billion). The additional aid required is because of the worsening of the economy under the Tsipras Syriza party administration in the first half of 2015, the collapse in the negotiations, loss of trust, the imposition of capital controls, closing of the banks, and the growing uncertainty created by the referendum of July 5, 2015 on the debt talks and membership in the European Union. This may leave Greece worse off than before, as the cost of the cuts at issue in the talks were significantly smaller, and the small gradual improvement in the economy under the Samaras administration in 2013-2014 has suffered a serious setback. This is an unfortunate setback as Greece was allowed the needed flexibility on the most important points of the percentage of surplus and dateline, and cuts in the public sector employees.

LyrArc Article Gist
A photographic trip of the Remain and Leave movements in Britain as parliament votes on Brexit. A March 29 deadline to leave the European Union is coming up fast, and the country is badly divided.

LyrArc Article Gist
One of the authors of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology study cited by president Trump, John Reilly, says president Trump in citing the MIT study showed " a complete misunderstanding of the problem." Reilly's view is that even the Paris accords are not enough, that it is one step, in his words "an incredibly important step," without which the next step cannot be taken. His view is also that the Trump White House may not be listening, so MIT does not plan to reach out to correct this view.

LyrArc Article Gist
After the rate cut by the Bank of England the best that Britons can hope for, says the Economist magazine, is that the recession is mild and the warnings of the Remain campaign on the economy do not turn out to be true. The QE and the rate cut will not be enough to stave off a recession. The Economist calls for public investment spending to improve business confidence, but says this is unlikely with the chancellor, Philip Hammond, not preparing any immediate action.