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German industry and arms buildup to counter Russia in Ukraine January 2026.

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The EU has set a goal of getting 20 million tons of grain exports out of Ukraine in 3 months using EU transport infrastructure. This is vital to feed many parts of the world. Ukraine exported 44 million tons in the 2020-2021 growing season. Russia is conducting a blockade of Odessa on the Black Sea to prevent Ukraine exports from leaving.

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A 900 mile long frontline from Kherson on the Black Sea north to Luhansk stretches Ukraine's forces along a long line in June 2023. A Ukraine effort to retake areas lost to Russia in eastern Ukraine and near Crimea as part of the counter offensive is only making slow progress because of land mines and lack of airpower. The successful Ukraine effort in 2022 to retake Kherson happened in an area which had two rivers and where Russia faced logistical issues of supplying its troops. In 2023 both sides have prepared for some time and it is very difficult for both.

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Addressing the European parliament president Zelensky of Ukraine says Ukraine is defending all of Europe and the Eruopean way of life. "We Ukrainians are together on the battlefield with you." To counter the Russian attacks Ukraine needs more assistance, Mr. Zelensky told the parliament. He called for action on the application to become a member of the EU by the end of 2023.

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Bondholders agree to a 37% writedown as Ukraine restructures $20 billion in debt. That could save Ukraine $11 billion over 3 years. Negotiations happened with Pimco, Black Rock and other companies.

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Before the war the supplies, spare parts and some of the aircraft for the heavy duty Antonov cargo carrying planes were shifted to Leipzig, Germany from Ukraine. Some of the other aircraft were damaged in the early days of the war near Hostomel. Ukraine was the location of a  significant part of manufacturing capability in the old Soviet Union. The very first helicopter that was mass produced in the world Sikorsky R-4 was made in the US in 1942 and designed by Sikorsky, who is from Kviv , Ukraine. After winning a competition in St Petersburg in 1912 for an early design Sikorsky immigrated to the US in 1919 to form the Sikorsky aircraft company in 1923. 

Sikorsky's story including his early education in aviation in St Petersburg reflects the strong ties that Ukraine has with Russia, yet with the Bolsheviks and the Russian Civil War he chose the opportunities the US offered, and chose to leave for the US. 

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One fifth of Kviv's population of 3 million has left the city, 4000 apartment buildings are without electricity in Kviv, this winter January 2026. This is the worst of the last couple of winters of the war, as Russia attacks energy infrastructure in Kviv on a large scale even as peace talks continue. Russia insists on control of Donbas region. Much of Ukraine today remembers a famine from the Soviet period, Russia remembers its proud history, language and culture from its beginnings in the Kviv region around the 14th century, that is the what this conflict is about. On one dimension it is about NATO and European Union expansion on another about the history and culture, language in a Russian language part of the world and the effort of Ukraine in the 21st century to seek a new identity. It is a struggle between fraternal people in the Russian region and in that sense a tragedy. It doesn't have to be one for Europe, for Germany. NATO was created when the Soviet Union expanded after 1948 and Britain was a key protagonist of NATO. Would its disbanding after Soviet Union disbanded leaving Russia as a country with centuries of its own history, would this have been the right action. If needed a new organization with a new name and Russia invited to join, would this have helped? Could this have focused attention on a new power as chancellor Merz has said, the new power being China being something requiring attention. The US is beginning to have new thoughts in this winter on 2026. The northern European nations (Britain, Poland, Finland and the Nordic countries, Baltics) have historical conflicts for centuries among themselves, they appear to be using NATO for their own historical conflicts. The US understands this, it is looking for a way to get a peace settlement so it can focus on the western hemisphere and not entangle itself in northern European conflicts that have been happening since 1600 with changing actors. The Republican have taken the lead under DJT for a new approach to put American people and their wellbeing, their right to live free of drugs(Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia), to live free of illegal migrants (Guatemala, Mexico, Venezuela), and improve on the shaky supply chains that were concentrated in China to bring jobs home that were lost by the millions (tariff policy), and to make living affordable (energy, agriculture).  ...

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The costs to Ukraine and Europe to repair the damage done in Kherson as Ukrainian forces recover the city of Ukraine from Russian control is shown here in The Guardian.

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Russian view at SCO Summit-"A fair balance in the security sphere" meaning a fair settlement on the expansion of NATO and EU that may threaten Russia, something Northern Europeans have not settled.  Le Monde covers this side of the Summit at Tianjin, a coastal city near Beijing in northeastern China. Over long periods of European history since 1600 Northern Europe including UK, Sweden, Denmark, France, Poland and Germany have contended with Russia and seen purely from this perspective Russia sees itself as a Northern European power and seeks to protect it's interests. Britain, Sweden and France have for the most part been on the opposite side since 1600. US under a Republican administration, and this is not just DJT, sees the larger interests beyond Europe of Asia and the American continent in addition to Europe, and seeks a diplomatic way out of the war in Europe.

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By having ships stay close to the Black Sea coast of NATO countries Ukraine is reviving the grain corridor that lets it send grain exports. This is also possible today because of increased surveillance capabilities of Ukraine and the increasing influence of Ukraine in the Black Sea. The corridor is important now that RUssia has withdrawn from the grain agreement put together by the UN and Turkey through negotiations with Russia.

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Marc Santora in NYT shows how Ukraine survived a winter with few lights on and 40% of its electricity grid destroyed. By April Ukraine had survived and was exporting electricity- something of a miracle.

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The Paris conference on Ukraine is an effort to help Ukraine's reconstruction with damage to the electricity grid and as the humanitarian situation deteriorates in the winter. The war continues to drag on.

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Robert Gates, U.S. Defense Secretary from 2006-11, says the West should provide a strong response to Russian president Putin's actions in Ukraine. He says settling old scores is not the way to peace in Asia or Europe. He describes Mr Putin's resentment of how Russia has been treated since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the desire to prevent the EU and NATO from coming too close to its borders, and especially Ukraine which is linked he says to the beginnings of the Russian Empire centuries ago. This could only lead to worsening tensions. Actions include bolstering defenses in Europe and reducing economic vulnerabilities of the Baltic states, restoring the defense budget to the levels of the 2014 budget proposed by the Obama administration in 2013, cutting overhead at the Defense department to add Navy ships, and urging the EU to grant associate status to Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine.

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More than 6.7 million persons are displaced inside Ukraine most of them from the war torn eastern part of Ukraine, and most of them women and children. In addition over 3 million are refugees in neighboring countries such as Slovakia and Poland. 

The war is now extending to the Donetsk region with about half of the population of the population in eastern Ukraine having left that region for safety in central and western Ukraine. The rolling farmland and old coal mines of the region, the destroyed infrastructure and industrial facilities, make the area of no use to Russian forces. A fraction of the Russian population in the area has also left says this report in the NYT. 

The scale of the damage and the refugee situation is hard to imagine and can be seen in the pictures in this NYT report. Boarding trains and buses civilians have poured out of cities in eastern Ukraine where the war has intensified.
 

 

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The fight against misuse of aid funds from donor countries is an important fight for Ukraine. Success in the war to defend Ukraine depends on winning the confidence of the European Union and the US that donor funds to rebuild Ukraine are going for that purpose. There is also the need to maintain the confidence of the Ukrainian people including millions displaced or refugees within the country, and the millions of other Ukrainians who are now intolerant of the corruption that used to be.

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The Sulina Channel on the Danube a 40 mile waterway with protection of NATO and of Romania, makes it possible to ship 20 million tons of Ukraine grain. Soon it is expected to double as this waterway offers a way to ship grain out of Ukraine after Russia pulled out of a grain export arrangement out of Black Sea ports. Russia has used drones to attack Ukraine grain infrastructure. The Danube is seen as the efficient route even though it is congested.