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After two quarters of no growth the German economy contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2023. The Constitutional Court ruled that German government's diverting $60 billion of unused pandemic funds to its climate and transformation fund was unconstitutional. If cuts are made in public spending as a result it could push Germany into a recession, says IMK Institute.

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The beneficiary forms on bank accounts on retirement accounts, and 401 K accounts matter as in most cases they trump the will says the WSJ. In the case cited here for P&G this matters even if filled out decades earlier and not changed or updated. This shows how important this is to update every year or couple of years.

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Bundesbank President Axel Weber told German lawmakers that Greece may need as much as 80 billon euros to avoid default. He said Greece's situation is deteriorating and "the numbers are changing all the time." Weber is a member of the ECB's governing council and a leading candidate to succeed Trichet as ECB President. So far Greece has 30 billion euros approved by the eurozone countries and 15 billion euros expected from the IMF.

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Adam Schiff Senator from California interview in Senate Office Feb 2026 Wash. Post- a Democrat joins the Agriculture Committee and attends farm bureau meetings. Adam Schiff talks about his role in Congress as a Democrat in Feb 2026 to deliver for the people of California for the 3 more years of the DJT administration. As Senator he sees himself as representing 40 million people of Califonria as opposed to the 800,000 people in his congressional district in the Los Angeles area. In that sense he has to take into account that DJT turned up a significant vote in California, exceeded only by Texas and Florida in 2024. He sounds ambivalent about his earlier positions opposing the president and the president's rhetoric. He has to work with administration offficals if he is to deliver on projects that help Californians. This is a position taken by Kathy Hochul governor of New York state, and by Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, both Democrats. Projects include saving a couple of rural hospitals and seeing to it that Department of Agriculture offices remain open in remote parts of California. He has sought out an assignment on the Senate Agriculture Committee. He now realizes that the Democrats have not done enough for Californians or for America, and had not looked for new ways to tackle tough problems-  working people voted for DJT he says “because they were struggling. They were working harder than ever. And they could barely get by. And the Democratic Party had come to be viewed as the party of a status quo. They found the status quo was deeply unsatisfactory.”  Like Ruben Gallego in Arizona there is a sense that a lot has to change in the Democratic party down to grassroots work and efforts which is why Schiff now attends farm bureau meetings up and down the state. ...

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DJT calls for 10% cap on credit card interest for affordability crisis for US families. Most of the credit card companies in the US base these operations in places without usury laws such as Nevada, and charge exorbitant rates on credit cards, a practice that is going on for 6 decades since the 1960's. It makes it harder for families to get out of poverty and living from paycheck to paycheck. It is another aspect of the affordability crisis. Democrats have never raised this up for action. “Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more,” the president says he wants the cap to start Jan. 20, 2026 If this happens it will be a big win for the American people and end a decades long usury type business in credit cards that violates the idea on which the US was founded of opportunity for all and access to credit as critical in making this happen. Interest rates of 30% are a way to reduce social mobility in the way a feudal order once did in the years before the Modern World and the Scientific Revolution. A society without social mobility is one in decline can be seen in the way Spain went into decline after 1700 and Britain emerged to lead the Modern World and the Industrial Revolution. This is the crisis America faces today- change or cede leadership to China or some other nation. It is about this not the capitalist system or other system as many like to portray it, and Adam Smith was all about growth and social mobility that were part of his system which today is sadly forgotten, yet needs to be bravely put forward. ...

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If the Federal Aviation Administration's own reviews were followed diligently by regulators the Boeing 737 Max would have become subject to new design changes much earlier. It was seen as an accident prone design in a November 2018 FAA analysis.

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One of the Russia's goals was to form a rival economic bloc of former soviet republics. Instead the Ukraine invasion has led to disastrous results for the economies of this region which are interconnected. Research from the World Bank shows the Russian economy declining by 11% and with further economic impact upto 25%, Ukraine's economy by 45%, former soviet republics like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyz Republic, by 30% because of loss of remittances and the fallout from the economic effects on Russia. Belarus would see its economy shrink by 30%, Moldova by 30%, according to the World Bank. 

The miscalculations of all sides from leadership in Russia to that of Merkel in Germany, and the invasion itself, is putting severe economic losses on this part of Europe. Many of these economies will have to take loans from the IMF and the World Bank to remain solvent. 

 

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While attention is placed on Brazil for coronavirus, neighboring Argentina has an economic crisis with debt of $324 billion, reaching 90% of GDP. The new Peronist party government in Argentina is supported by the IMF in negotiations with creditors, as it faces the coronavirus and needs to free up resources from debt payments to tackle the crisis. Its proposal to Ad Hoc group of creditors including investment funds Black Rock and Fidelity is for a three year grace period on debt payments, 62% reduction of interest  amounting to $37 billion, and 5% reduction of capital or $3.6 billion. Earlier governments mishandled the economy leading to overborrowing on an unsustainable basis. Argentina has defaulted on debt 20 times in its history. The last being in 2001 with debt of $100 billion. The pattern of overborrowing and mismanagement by administrations modeled on free market economies has continued. Lenders, borrowers, and the government have not acted prudently knowing this history. ...

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Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of the Harvard School of Public Health says in Jan 2018 issue of Harvard Chan Institute of Public Health journal that an "accidental pandemic" could result from the lifting of the ban on a risky kind of research favored by some virologist professionals.  In "Three Questions, Three Answers" Lipsitch tells why. Most members of the broader scientific and medical community had serious questions and were fiercely against such research which had questionable value and great risk. At the beginning the interviewer Karen Feldscher writes:  "January 8, 2018- Last month the US government lifted a three year moratorium on funding risky research to genetically alter deadly viruses in ways that could make them even more lethal. Epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch of Harvard Chan School thinks the move could create an accidental pandemic." Lipsitch says rejecting the virologists who supported this dangerous research: "Others, like myself, worry that the human error could lead to the accidental release of a virus that has been enhanced in the lab so that it is more deadly and contagious than it already is." He cites an accident in 2014 at US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Lab where workers were exposed to anthrax that was improperly handled. "Another accident like that- if it involved a virus that was both newly created and highly contagious- has the potential to jeopardize millions of people."  Lipsitch points out that this kind of research has given us modest scientific knowledge, was not essential to tackling the virus epidemics, was only one type of many types of research, and a type of research whose aims could be achieved in other ways that were not deadly to humans. Lipsitch pointed this out in The Journal of Medical Ethics stating the ethical considerations at stake. The lifting of the ban led to research at labs that is seen as a possible scenario of what happened to cause an accidental pandemic. The people of the world, and not just in America but the people of the whole world, and the poorest countries with little resources- Asia, Africa, Latin America bearing the consequences of this decision that violated medical ethical considerations of setting up a potential accidental pandemic.   ...

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Nancy Koehn calls this a brave and insightful book, with relevance for readers watching the debt ceiling negotiations unfold in the U.S. in July 2011. The question he asks about how the elites could have got so many things wrong relate to Greece as well as the bubbles and ensuing crises in the U.S. in the last decade. Manolopoulos points to the problems of using GDP indicators if the economic activity it measures is not reflecting an increase in the productive capabilities and competitiveness of the country. He also cautions about the negative impact of liberalization of capital flows if this results in a large pool of global credit that short termist governments can access without regard to the longer term consequences of repayment. The creation of bubbles is one danger of access to large pools of capital. another danger is that this capital leads to governments relaxing all conservative practices of budgeting in managing a nation's finances.

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Pakistan has always suffered from tax collection that is some of the poorest in the world. This leaves little money for badly needed infrastructure and roads. At a time when countries such as Indonesia and India are rapidly building roads and infrastructure, Pakistan depends on projects and financing almost entirely from China.  This means dependence on foreign debt financing such as that of the $2 billion Orange Line, Pakistan's first Metro line in Lahore. This is one of the first projects one of $16 billion in projects started from a planned $62 billion under China's Belt and Road Initiative. The problem is that taking on so much debt leaves Pakistan dependent on Chinese financing, with increased debt payments leading to a debt crisis. External debt will double to over $100 billion from a little over $50 billion in 2013, according to the IMF, reaching 30% of GDP. External financing needs have doubled from 4% of GDP or about $10 billion in 2013-2015 period doubling to over $20 billion and 8% of GDP. A steep increase in debt in a space of only 3 years. Pakistan faces problems similar to that faced by other countries including Ceylon, Burma. Pakistan has fallen behind on debt payments for electricity projects, because of problems getting Pakistanis to pay electric bills. Other problems are that the projects use Chinese workers and Chinese contractors so that they do not generate jobs the way projects would normally generate domestic jobs and growth including pushing domestic firms up the experience and knowledge curve in construction and technology. The opaqueness of the deals lead to a lack of required transparency. The projects also lack the almost zero interest financing from Japan of projects such as the first bullet train in India on Mumbai-Ahmedabad corridor because of the lack of negotiating leverage and other problems.  By early fall 2018 Pakistan is expected to seek IMF financing, which would lead to conditions set by the IMF on how much it can borrow and spend under the Belt and Road Initiative, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor or CPEC. This means effectively that the Wst will bail out a country after investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. ...

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John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

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Denning uses the Brazilian government's scrapping of a 6% tax on foreign purchases of bonds to slow the slide in the value of the Brazilian currency, the Real, to point to the changed situation today for Brazil, India, Turkey and S. Africa. Current account deficits in these countries are high, and foreign investors sentiment about emerging markets may be affected by the street protests in Turkey, reducing inflows of capital. The mining worker protests in S. Africa and the street protests in Turkey, have led to a decline in the currencies of the two countries. The Fed's quantitative easing program may be coming to a close, which would reduce the flows of capital to emerging market countries. Turkey has seen a boom in domestic credit supported partly by foreign capital inflows. The current account deficit to GDP ratio for Turkey is expected to be 7.28% in 2013, for S. Africa 6.46%, and Brazil 3.25%, according to IMF forecast.

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This WSJ editorial says the IMF must help Ukraine with emergency financing, and the U.S. and Germany need to offer long term economic assistance.

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Landlords and real estate brokers say only 10% to 20% of workers will return to their office when New York offices reopen after 3 months on June 22. Most companies are taking a careful approach and letting employees work from home or opening offices at reduced occupancy. Gradually this will increase from 20%. Yet offices are not expected to have a more normal look till Labor Day with people returning to work, and that too if schools have reopened.

There are concerns about public transit how many people it can accomodate with social distancing guidelines, and if more drivers lead to traffic jams.

Except for traders financial service companies employees are staying away from office. Tech and creative companies are taking their time and letting people work from home.

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The pound trades at 1.23 U.S. dollars and the Euro at 1.12 U.S. dollars. Both currencies lost about 3% in 2019 and the pound could reach parity with the U.S. dollar if Boris Johnson takes Britain out of the EU without a negotiated settlement.

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Trench candles are keeping Ukraine soldiers warm this winter on the front and in trenches. A can tightly filled with cardboard is what a trench candle is. If it is lit 1-2 hours before going to sleep at night it can generate a surprising amount of warmth. Warm clothing is being sent from many countries including Canada and the US to Ukraine soldiers.

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The economics situation in Eastern Europe is looking much better now after the recovery of confidence in the USA and Western Europe with stimulus measures and other steps to ease credit, and the decision at the G20 summit in London in early 2009 to provide a strong line of credit to emerging market economies struggling in this crisis. The European Bank for Reconstruction ad Development sees a 5.2% drop in GDP in 2009 over 2008, and the IMF 4.9% for Eastern European economies. The region varies country by country, with GDP decline forecast for 2009 over the prior year by the IMF showing a modest decline of 0.7% for Poland which is doing well, Czech Republic 3.5%, Hungary 3.3%, Bulgaria 2%. Other countries Lithuania 10%, Ukraine 8% and Russia at 6% decline in GDP for 2009 are hit hardest but thing there are also improving compared to last quarter. The stock market in Poland went up by 40% since the low in February 2009, Hungary by 50%, and Russia by nearly 90%, reflecting this increased confidence. A big difference is in the way the IMF under Dominique Strauss Kahn is operating. WIth the new mandate to help emerging market countries and the new funds from western countries, China and Japan, the IMF is working in cooperation with the European COmmission, the banks, and the national governments in Eastern Europe, to lessen the effects of this crisis. This is afirst for the IMF and aremarkable change. In May 2009 the IMF gave a$21 billion credit line to Poland with no strings attached , the kind of loan it made to Mexico, as aproactive measure to restore confidence. IMF told the Ukraine that a deficit of 4% of GDP was realistic when it released a $2.8 billion tranche recently. Latvia was allowed to run adeficit of 7% for 2009, with a committment to bring this down to 4% in 2010. Another change is that more aid is now given to western banks with souring loans in eastern Europe, so that these banks do not cut back severely or pull out of Eastern European economies. The EBRD has raised $24.5billion to lend to banks and other companies in the region. And $590 million went to UniCredit Italia, an Italina bank heavily exposed to Eastern Europe. Ther EBRD is looking at investing in 12 other western European banks. The Swedes have national schemes too to help the Baltic countries. The political situation is improving also, as the transition to new administration as aresult of voter discontent is being managed wisely. In the Czech Republic acompetent tranisiton government is headed by Jan Fischer, chief statistician, till elections in October 2009. In Hungary the transition government is run by an economist Gordon Bajnai, till an election next spring....

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The caretaker government of prime minister Mark Rutte in the Netherlands will commit to following austerity plans in its Stability Program report to the European Union. Elections are now set for September 12, 2012. The government was able to get the support of two smaller left-leaning parties to austerity plans. Opposition parties have questioned the policies and said they will reverse them if elected. Rutte's Liberal party and Jaeger's Christian Democrats, with the help of the Christenunie, D66, and Groenlinks, now hold a slim 2 seat majority in the 150 seat Dutch parliament. The Freedom party that had previously supported Rutte withdrew support for austerity policies that it said would hurt pensioners. The moves help avert a credit ratings drop by the credit ratings agencies leading to a loss of the Dutch triple A credit rating. The measures will increase the sales tax from 19% to 21%, make health care spending cuts and impose a pay freeze on civil servants. Savings achieved will be 11 billion euros. Rutte described his actions as: "the government's respose to the acute crisis in confidence in the financial markets." Earlier in the week Fitch Ratings had threatened to lower the Netherlands credit rating. The measures will reduce the Dutch deficit to 3% in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012 to meet EU fiscal compact rules. The changes to the health system are part of changes advocated by the OECD and the IMF because of surging health care costs for an aging Dutch population. There is concern about the sales tax increase because of its effect on consumer spending, and recent comments by S&P managing directors and others in financial markets emphasize the need for economic growth, as austerity measures by itself are inadequate solutions....

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An audit of Spain's banking system by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, shows that Spanish banks would need 53.745 billion euros to be cleaned up if mergers and acquisitions underway are completed.The amount goes up to 59.3 billion euros if this does not happen. Bankia bank will need 24.7 billion euros to meet capital requirements. Three other nationalized banks need 21.5 billion euros, including 3.2 billion euros for Banco Popular. Of the 14 audited banks only 7 need capital infusions. The other banks considered healthy include BBVA, Santander and La Caixa. These findings are similiar to a preliminary finding by Oliver Wyman and estimates provided by Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, that Spanish banks will need 51 billion to 62 billion euros of capital infusion. Spain's secretary of state for the economy, Fernando Jimenez Latorre, says Spain will soon request about 40 billion euros of the 100 billion euro bailout offer for banks negotiated by Spain in June with the EU. It is not clear whether the capital infusion will go directly to Spain's banks as Spain has argued, or go through the Spanish government. The audits were important to provide credibility through independent assessment of losses in Spain's banking system, and remove the fog of uncertainty that is pushing up Spain's borrowing rate in capital markets....

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Moderating prices for oil and commodities and food combined with lower oil prices that help introduce fiscal restraint in the government's spending, would actually help Iran in controlling inflation running at 24% by IMF estimates. And Iran's foreign currency reserves of $82 billion would help cushion Iran as it incurs modest fiscal deficits and help it weather the global financial crisis. And Iran's oil and gas exports are rising for 2008 and 2009 by estimates of IMF and Iranian government with foreign currency reserves estimated at near $100 billion for 2009, though a lot depends on oil price levels for these estimates.

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Problems for women and for childcare in Germany after the Merkel administration's failure to invest in child care. This DW.com report looks at this problem. Mothers have to send their children to grandparents or pay for expensive private day cares and nannies if they are able to do this. If they are not able to do this the mother usually reduces her work hours or delays returning to her job entirely. A German Youth Institute DJI study is cited which shows that in 2020 49% of parents with children under age three said they require child care. Of these only 24% were able to secure a place at a child care center for the necessary hours. For children over age three 97% needed childcare and only 71% said the necessary hours were covered. This problem was bad before the pandemic, during the pandemic it has only become much worse for women. A similar problem is happening in the US, so that this problem has consequences for women in both the EU - in Germany, France, Italy- as well as the US. It places additional burdens on women with children in the workplace. ...

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Efforts to get funds like Abu Dhabi's and Singapore's to agree to a set of rules. Treasury and IMF talk to fund representatives from these countries.

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Turkey's former minister of economic affairs and treasury on the need for IMF help too all developing countries that need help and have followed reasonably good economic policies, without simply labeling policies as good or bad in an oversimplified way. Decisions should he says reflect the widespread need for fiscal stimulus in te face of collapsing demand for exports and declining private expenditures. And here also IMF resources are close to $200 billion and the needs of developing countries are estimated between $500 billion and $800 billion. China and the Gulf states need to step in and steps taken quickly to associate them in a more substanital way till improvements are made in IMF governance.He is looking for help in weeks not months. Dervis points to the need for fairness in eligibility criteria for help with help not limited to countries with political clout or systemic importance, wheras other countries have to engage in protracted negotiations with intrusive conditions such as those which raise interest rates in the face of collapsing demand as in the past. ...